The Drought is Killing the Valley

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Messages 1 - 64 of total 64 in this topic
jose gutierrez

Trad climber
sacramento,ca
Topic Author's Original Post - Aug 29, 2016 - 11:02pm PT
It is almost too painful to climb in Yosemite Valley this year due to the devastation the drought and Bark Beetles have had on the Valley. I hate to be a downer but I took this photo this weekend on my way out of the park and the devastation compared to even a few years ago is alarming. Does anyone who has been going to the Valley for a long time have any good photos or ever recall this amount of tree mortality? It is so sad to see the Valley dying, and I have to wonder if it will be as magical a place for my children someday if all the trees are dead.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Aug 30, 2016 - 12:28am PT
I think it is easy to get sentimental about a place you grew up knowing, and assume that that place was always as you had known it.

If you look at Yosemite Valley in 1865 you see the famous Carleton Watkins image:
http://www.carletonwatkins.org/getviewbyid.php?id=1005215

Many people have found these scenes, using hints from old maps to find the "Mariposa Trail" and then taking images from that trail, for instance:
http://yosemitenews.info/forum/read.php?3,65416

This image was probably taken in the 2010's... almost 150 years later.

The difference is quite apparent, there are a lot more trees on the floor of the Valley, especially pine species,
in the modern image compared to the old image. The density of trees in the foreground are especially revealing,
you can see the ground in the old picture, which is totally obscured in the new one.

The talus slopes on the North side up around the "Old Big Oak Flat Rd." are much more vegetated now
then they were, as well as the slopes up to El Cap.

Certainly, modern fire suppression (probably largely since WWII) and the altered hydrology have played a role in the
pine succession. Increased density also causes problems for both fire propagation as well as disease and insect
infestation.

Our modern view of the Valley is quite a bit different from the view 150 years ago. It is certainly true
that the "first people" utilized fire to alter the vegetation to their advantage, favoring oaks to pines as
a food source. The Merced river was also dammed by the terminal moraine which was breached in the
late 1800s to drain the marshes (or perhaps by accident?) reducing the flooding that prevented the pines
from establishing in the various meadows.

All this is a long winded way of saying that we can try to make these places look like we think they should,
but there are natural processes which we know little or nothing about that can act quickly, and in ways that
we cannot control to produce the vista we desire.

An old saying goes "man proposes, God disposes" Homo proponit, sed Deus disponit, and independent of one's
views on religion, it is an appropriate saying to keep in mind.
mouse from merced

Trad climber
The finger of fate, my friends, is fickle.
Aug 30, 2016 - 04:23am PT
A very current photo from the summit of Ranger Rock.
The trees which are in red stage of bark beetle infestation are plain to see and plainly doomed. They are inferior specimens, anyway. Meh.

The carpet of pines, created by lack of fires over recent history, is very apparent as well. Change is for chumps. We want it the way we had it.

Sorry, Charlie.

It seems like only a matter of time until the pines are nearly or completely wiped out here and elsewhere in the range.

The lichens don't seem to be worried, but we should be.

Mice dispose of lots...of shi't, Ed.

Boy, this is a good topic. Thanks for noticing and caring, JG.
Matt's

climber
Aug 30, 2016 - 06:23am PT
Jose-- a couple points:

1) yes, there is a massive tree die-off occurring-- probably some combination of infestation/drought/global warming/previous fire suppression. It's unclear to me what a "natural" level of vegetation is in the valley. I think a bigger issue is the 20% year-over-year increase in YNP visitors....

2) Every generation of californian has experienced watching their version of california disappear-- I'm sure that you're children, when they grow up, will talk about how much better the state was when they were growing up...

best,
matt

(you should come visit Meve and I in Oakland one of these days!)
mouse from merced

Trad climber
The finger of fate, my friends, is fickle.
Aug 30, 2016 - 06:54am PT
Dingus, you make-a my head hurt!

What you say is valid; but the topic is the drought, is it not?
Nothing too magical about lack of rain in California.

That is the norm as I see it, and my being a native has taught me some form of dry humor.

I never cease to appreciate the magic of being somewhere besides Merced by being able to walk beside the Merced.

In such surroundings, the quiet spots away from the churning masses (20%/year is just not sustainable!), there is still lots to appreciate.

It's easy to try, white as I am, to picture myself as one living there among others native to the place--
I can't help the feeling of being part of it, I have come to know it so well as I have,
yet not a skosh compared to the lucky ones who live and work there for long spells.

Dry comes and goes, though. And what is the nature of the norm in natural Yosemite Valley?

That is a basic question and people like Greg STock ("resident ST rockfall expert notices changes...
again and again and again") and others are the ones to whom to go for beta on that, I think.
Peter Haan

Trad climber
Santa Cruz, CA
Aug 30, 2016 - 07:44am PT
Let's not forget that the indians were burning off the meadows every year to resist forestation of their crucial deer habitats in the grassy open spaces. Sierra Club Bulletin did a study and good article on this back in the Sixties, by the way, including photos. I think the NPS/NFS is trying to mimic this action controlled burns on the Valley floor.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Aug 30, 2016 - 08:25am PT
the NYTimes had an article on this today

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/30/science/california-dead-trees-forest-fires.html
Cragar

climber
MSLA - MT
Aug 30, 2016 - 09:21am PT
Some emotional management may be necessary to come to terms with this.

You've said it in the past and it continues to ring true. The sooner folks can learn to cope, deal and move on, the better. Trees, health and aesthetics in environment are just the beginning! :)
le_bruce

climber
Oakland, CA
Aug 30, 2016 - 09:32am PT
Taken from mid-Sentinel in June of 2013:

In 2014:


Last month:



Trees dying in any quadrant you put in focus:



Sensible and rational answers here, but I'm with you Jose - even though I see the bigger picture and am not worried for the health of the forest, it makes me sad to see such beautiful trees dying, too.
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Aug 30, 2016 - 11:02am PT
I was aghast when I heard the tree mortality in Mariposa county was pegged at 55% this year. Drive through Oakhurst during the day, and you know that it's not a joke.

Combination of drought, beetles, and other factors.

My prediction is that in a quarter century, we gonna see saguaros in Yosemite instead of pines.
JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
Aug 30, 2016 - 11:09am PT
My hope, if not prediction, has a much more optimistic hue. I hope the dead conifers in the Valley turn back to meadows and oak forests. When I look at old pictures of the Valley -- including those in my family's albums -- the much greater grass areas stand out. Since we would never agree to artificial tree clearing, and most would consider a massive burn too dangerous, the drought and bark beetle, like the drought and needle miners 50+ years ago below Medlicott Dome, are my last hope for clearing out some conifers to make room for the more scenic "deep, grassy valley" that Ahwahnee allegedly means.

John
nita

Social climber
chica de chico, I don't claim to be a daisy.
Aug 30, 2016 - 11:24am PT
*
More photos ~Turtleback webcam.
Last year already signs of dying trees..
Webcam picture from today
...............
A rememberance of mine.... and interesting nature notes.

i started working in Tuolumne Meadow the summer after the 76 & 77 California drought. That year the river was reduced to a trickle before summers end, and the Needleminer infestation once again took hold in the Lodgepoll pines. The following summer, 1979, ( durning the hatch) the moths were falling in abundance like tiny snowflakes. Moths got into everything, including the food i was serving the guests at the lodge. I don't remember if the park service sprayed the high country that year, but they had sprayed in the past. There are still obvious signs of ghost forests.. die- off throughout the high country.

http://www.yosemite.ca.us/library/yosemite_nature_notes/36/36-5.pdf

Edit:...John...Yep, that old...I'm well preserved ..(-;..
JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
Aug 30, 2016 - 11:28am PT
i started working in Tuolumne Meadow the summer after the 76 & 77 California drought.

I'm sorry, Nita, but you can't possibly be that old.

John
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Aug 30, 2016 - 11:34am PT
I think that all we have to do is listen to The Donald. He told us there was no drought in California and that all we had to do was "turn on the water."

That man is so smart, somebody should make him president.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Aug 30, 2016 - 03:38pm PT

My prediction is that in a quarter century, we gonna see saguaros in Yosemite instead of pines.

I think that would actually be rad. (Although I think dirt and sagebrush is far more likely.)
Kalimon

Social climber
Ridgway, CO
Aug 30, 2016 - 07:19pm PT
It is so sad to see the Valley dying, and I have to wonder if it will be as magical a place for my children someday if all the trees are dead.

Unfortunately dying trees are not limited to Yosemite Valley or California . . . You should see the White Fir mortality in and around Ouray, CO. In just the last 4 years the changes have been dramatic. Climate change is the only constant!
Paul Martzen

Trad climber
Fresno
Aug 30, 2016 - 07:20pm PT
Seems like the pine belt is retreating uphill. The worst of the die off appears to be right at the traditional snowline or around 4500 feet up to 6,000 feet or so. The highest concentration of dead trees is at the lowest elevations that they are found. Going up highway 180, east of Fresno, the tree die off near Snowline Lodge appears to be about 90%. As you drive higher, the percentage of dead pine trees steadily declines.

There are plenty of dead oak trees at low elevations as well, but I don't see any obvious pattern of uphill retreat. The low elevation digger pines which are kind of like undead zombie pines seem to be doing fine.
thebravecowboy

climber
The Good Places
Aug 30, 2016 - 07:57pm PT
will somebody please think of the children?!
Lorenzo

Trad climber
Portland Oregon
Aug 30, 2016 - 08:13pm PT
http://articles.latimes.com/2011/jul/30/local/la-me-yosemite-trees-20110730

Didn't the Awanechee live in the valley part of the year to harvest acorns?

What's with all the evergreens?
Clint Cummins

Trad climber
SF Bay area, CA
Aug 30, 2016 - 10:46pm PT
Some of the photos (areas near El Cap Meadow and near Foresta)
show trees killed by controlled and uncontrolled fires....
neebee

Social climber
calif/texas
Aug 30, 2016 - 11:02pm PT
hey there say, jose...

say, THANK you so much for sharing, with this thread...


very interesting, too, to see the stuff that ed shared, and
the memories from others...
and the notes on:

how and why, or what, yosemite does to our hearts...
or, did in the past, too...


and the photos as well...

sad to see trees die... as we wonder, too,
how things are going to be...


love the land... all the land, around us...
love yosemite, too, so very much, :)




edit:
thanks for all the links, too...
SC seagoat

Trad climber
Santa Cruz, Moab, A sailboat, or some time zone
Aug 30, 2016 - 11:49pm PT
the NYTimes had an article on this today

Interesting article.

It has been "jaw dropping" to drive around the Yosemite environs and see the brown forested hills. Very unsettling.

Susan
aspendougy

Trad climber
Los Angeles, CA
Aug 31, 2016 - 12:02am PT
Various areas of Yosemite have fascinating tree histories. Our family owns property at Aspen Valley, elevation about 6,400, comparable to Crane Flat only a bit wetter, historically.

Back when I was a kid (I am 65) there were huge groves of sugar pines in the area. Then someone found out that the breeding cycle of a certain beetle that killed sugar pines was connected with gooseberry bushes. So the Park Service (maybe it was some other agency) sent guys up to up to pull out all the gooseberry bushes they could find. We called them "the gooseberry grubbers". My Grandmother was upset, as she made jelly from the berries. At the same time we laughed, thinking, "Those damn gooseberry bushes are everywhere, they'll never find them all." After a few years, they discontinued the "grubbing". Not sure if it ever helped the sugar pines or not.

My observation in that area is that common Douglas firs have progressively replaced the pine trees, as they reproduce easier and are less susceptible to diseases.

After the massive fire a few years back near Ackerson Meadows (there have actually been two huge fires there), I found massive slopes with no trees at all, just huge amounts of manzanita.

They did a controlled burn one year up closer to White Wolf, but some local spots morphed into crown fires that killed everything. In some areas you see the trees coming back, but very, very slowly. The way forests change, it's on a different time scale than human life.
jose gutierrez

Trad climber
sacramento,ca
Topic Author's Reply - Aug 31, 2016 - 12:50am PT
Thank you everyone for your thoughtful replies, and for sharing information and memories about this phenomenon. It is true that the only constant in this world is change.

Ed thank you for sharing the Watkins image, it is amazing how different the Valley looks only 150 years later, and thank you for sharing that interesting (and timely) article. A lot of scientific evidence other than tree death in California points to the fact that we are going to be in for a bumpy ride in the near future. To aspen's point the forests change on a very different timescale than human life, which is why this rapid change has been so alarming to me. It has been the first real visceral evidence that the world we live in is rapidly changing, a satellite image of icebergs retreating is scary but when a place I have been coming to since I was a child changes in such an accelerated manner it really hits home.

I really appreciate everyone pitching in with your memories and knowledge of the natural history and how its changed in the Valley, since I realize my sample size is very small.

Sierra Club Bulletin did a study and good article on this

Peter do you have link or a copy of the Sierra Clubs Bulletin, I would be very interested to read it.

Some of the photos (areas near El Cap Meadow and near Foresta)
show trees killed by controlled and uncontrolled fires....
Clint thanks for clarifying I was wondering if this was due to the controlled burns or mostly the drought/beetles. I had thought that most healthy pine trees could survive controlled burns so I was not sure what the exact root cause was.

Thanks everyone chiming in and please keep the memories and the articles coming. At the end of the day I think DMT is right that Yosemite has always and will continue to be a magical and inspiring place.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Aug 31, 2016 - 09:19am PT
this article tells of the villages of the first people in the Valley:

http://www.yosemite.ca.us/library/indian_village_and_camp_sites_in_yosemite_valley.html
Sierra Club Bulletin 10(2):202-209 (January 1917).

Trees of Yosemite (1932, 1948) by Mary Curry Tresidder
http://www.yosemite.ca.us/library/trees_of_yosemite/

REFINED BURNING PRESCRIPTIONS FOR YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK
Jan W. van Wagtendonk
http://www.nps.gov/parkhistory/online_books/yose/index.htm

Vegetational Changes in Yosemite Valley
http://www.nps.gov/parkhistory/online_books/science/op5/introduction.htm
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Aug 31, 2016 - 09:27am PT
Manson, Marsden
The Effect of the Partial Suppression of Annual Forest Fires in the Sierra Nevada Mountains,
Sierra Club Bulletin v6, p22
https://archive.org/details/sierraclubbu619071908sier
Radish

Trad climber
SeKi, California
Sep 17, 2016 - 10:30am PT
While Clint is right about the trees dead from controlled and uncontrolled burns, that's a really minor thing compared to ALL the dead and dying trees that are changing the landscape now. This is something that's just appeared in its massiveness at the end of last year. If you who speak haven't been up in the Central or Southern Sierra in the last 8 months then your in for the biggest surprise of your outdoor lives!!
pud

climber
Sportbikeville & Yucca brevifolia
Sep 17, 2016 - 10:49am PT
Evolution has little concern with what humans deem appropriate.
bluering

Trad climber
Santa Clara, CA
Sep 17, 2016 - 11:45am PT
You know, the magic kids feel in a place comes from their parents, not the place, generally speaking.

Talk of dead trees and how it used to be glorious? They may be bummed.

But if you still feel the magic yourself, and allow that magic to surface in how you talk, look and act there, I bet they will catch the vibe and maybe the (climber) virus too!

:) its not the trees

DMT


Dingus is correct. Let the kids 'find' Yosemite as it is. It's glorious for many reasons other than it's trees. Only adults look at at landscapes, kids at the immediate surroundings. They don't care.

As for Bark Beetles, can't we get scientists to investigate how to elimate them specifically without dropping a nuke on the Valley?

Science should focus on sh#t like this instead of sending scientists to the Arctic to study 'global warming'.

A russian team is currently pinned-down by polar bears up there. Somebody tell Al Gore the polar bears are okay, they're feeding on Russian dogs and scientists.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-scientists-trapped-polar-bears-arctic-weather-station-troynoy-island/
HighTraverse

Trad climber
Bay Area
Sep 17, 2016 - 01:25pm PT
As for Bark Beetles, can't we get scientists to investigate how to elimate them specifically without dropping a nuke on the Valley?
They're working on it. However it's already too late for the approx 66million dead trees. This is CDF's count.
http://www.readyforwildfire.org/Bark-Beetles-Dead-Trees/
The percentage of bark beetle killed trees is less the further north you go and greater the further south.
A note on the Lodgepole die off in Tuolumne in the '70s.
I was in the die off area this July and had a good look. The overall forest looks very healthy. There are plenty of Lodgepoles that appear to be about 30 years old. There is a scattering of still standing dead Lodgepoles in the forest showing that where I was had been infected.
There was a big discussion at the time. "old timers" wanted infested trees removed and the forest sprayed. Remember this is in Tuolumne Meadows.
Some "modern" foresters and scientists argued to let Nature take her course. This is what the Park Service did.
If you didn't know about the die off you probably wouldn't notice it now.
HighTraverse

Trad climber
Bay Area
Sep 17, 2016 - 01:49pm PT
So let's think about the 66million already infested and dead trees.
Here's CalFire's "drought related" tree mortality map.
http://www.readyforwildfire.org/Tree-Mortality-Maps/
Yellow is background mortality. The area where trees are dying of non drought related causes. Like Old Age.
Note the very large area of 15-40+ dead trees per acre. This is the red and dark brown areas. Many of these are old and very large trees.
The other interesting thing is most of the Sierra Nevada die off is along the 6000' or so elevation on the western slope. Running from the Tehachapi pass area all the way to the Oregon border.
Below the map there's a viewer.
This may be an artifact as It appears the Yosemite high country has not been mapped. One might assume it's not a region of high interest.
However starting at the south rim of The Valley there as a wide band of high mortality. There is a scary amount of 40+ dead trees/acre.

Note that these maps don't separate drought vs bark beetle mortality. Also this is data from the spring of 2015. The current amount is surely greater.

I was in the middle of this area over Labor Day weekend. This image was take prior to the devastating Brush Fire of Aug/Sept last year.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Sep 17, 2016 - 02:54pm PT
I had thought that most healthy pine trees could survive controlled burns so I was not sure what the exact root cause was.

If a forest hasn't burned in a long time and there is a huge build up of dead trees and other fuel load on the ground, it is hard to keep a controlled burn controlled.

There are also a lot of trees that aren't in the best of health.

My understanding: just a really deep build up of pine needles can cause a fire to smolder for a long time and can kill larger trees than would have happen back when the fires happened far more often.
lcote

climber
Sep 17, 2016 - 03:32pm PT
The notion of wildfire suppression as the main cause of the increased amount of vegetation since the 1800s is overblown. As Ed points out in his "before and after" photo comparison, "The talus slopes on the North side up around the "Old Big Oak Flat Rd. are much more vegetated now then they were, as well as the slopes up to El Cap." It seems unlikely that the El Cap talus slopes were subjected to Indian or natural fires. There is an excellent book "Fire in the Sierra Nevada Forests" by G. Gruell that compares forest photos from the 1800s to today. In many of the photos there are "islands" of vegetation in talus slopes where it is unlikely that wildfires would reach that are now much more heavily vegetated. It seems to me that the major cause of the increased vegetation is the fact that the first half of the twentieth century was a period of unusually heavy rainfall relative to now or the 1800s.
I lived through an equally bad bark beetle infestation in Idyllwild about 10 years ago. Now one can hardly tell that the infestation occurred and the forest is healthier now due to the surviving trees having less competition for water and sunlight.
HighTraverse

Trad climber
Bay Area
Sep 17, 2016 - 03:37pm PT
You raise a good point about historic bark beetle infestations.
The difference now is the huge area and number of trees affected at one time.
TahoeHangDogger

climber
Olympic Valley, CA
Sep 17, 2016 - 06:48pm PT
Were there a smaller percentage of trees infected from previous bark beetle infestations?
10b4me

Mountain climber
Retired
Sep 19, 2016 - 07:28am PT
Slightly off topic, but this article is interesting.

http://whnt.com/2016/09/15/how-will-the-ongoing-drought-affect-fall-foliage/

Clint Cummins

Trad climber
SF Bay area, CA
Sep 20, 2016 - 05:18am PT
Jose,
I was wondering if this was due to the controlled burns or mostly the drought/beetles.
I was up on the Apron last weekend, looking down on the trees in the east end of the Valley.
There were several localized "clumps" of recently dead trees with the orange needles still on them.
For these clumps, this suggests localized contagion, so bark beetles would be a likely cause.

If this is true, there would still be the question of what fraction of recent deaths is caused by beetles, vs. (say) drought.
It could also be a combination - weakened by drought or something,
then finished off by beetles.
mouse from merced

Trad climber
The finger of fate, my friends, is fickle.
Oct 5, 2016 - 08:24pm PT
A snippet of recent history some may never have heard...
excellent book, overall.


But should wilderness be picture perfect? And were not Hutchings's elms themselves exotic? Finally, were not insect infestations just another form of predation, one whose short-term esthetic effects would nonetheless be erased by the new plant growth sure to follow? The point again was that those kinds of questions were just beginning to be asked. In the meantime, by June 1949 infestations of needle-miner moths in the lodgepole pine forests surrounding Tenaya Lake and Cathedral Creek reached epidemic proportions. Spraying was begun shortly afterward using a combination of airplane, helicopter, and hand applications. Again most prophetically, the chemical used was DDT. [45]

Predictably, doubts that spraying was either advisable or effective surfaced most often among trained biologists, especially those associated with preservation groups. The Sierra Club was most vocal; so too, faculty members of the University of California at Berkeley still frequently advised Park Service officials. Generally that role, like Joseph Grinnell's in the past, remained strictly unofficial. Stepped-up spraying for needle-miners in the late 1950s nevertheless provoked more widespread and even more outspoken comments. If only indirectly, scientists obviously still served as a most important conscience for government managers, who were not always as deeply committed to natural resources. [46]

By 1959 Yosemite's needle-miner infestation covered tens of thousands of acres surrounding Tuolumne Meadows and Tenaya Lake. The damage was most visible in the browned and dying trees seen from everywhere along the Tioga Road. "It may appear foolish to let a tree die, or to let part of a forest die," wrote David Brower, of the Sierra Club, summing up the consensus among Park Service leaders. "But," he added, immediately interjecting the opinion of knowledgeable scientists and preservationists, it appeared foolish "only in the short view." He next turned philosophical. "God made the lodgepole pine. God also made the needle miner. To oversimplify badly, He may have made both to prevent either from overrunning too much of the earth." Whatever God's reasoning, Yosemite during the past sixty years had been through three such epidemics. "The lodgepoles... are still there," Brower observed, "needle miners or no." Indeed one would need "an expert" to determine precisely "where the first epidemic of this century ran its course." Likewise people "might very easily pass the second one without seeing it." Brower continued, "Because of both of them, and similar epidemics in the previous century, you may have seen more meadow than you would otherwise see, and more mountain hemlocks." The lesson was "unmistakeable," he concluded. Nothing had been lost to Yosemite National Park; rather, the resources and their relationships were simply in constant change. [47]

From Yosemite: The Embattled Wilderness by Alfred Runte - ch. 11
http://www.nps.gov/parkhistory/online_books/runte2/chap11.htm
pud

climber
Sportbikeville & Yucca brevifolia
Jan 16, 2017 - 02:10pm PT

Malemute

Sep 19, 2016 - 07:02am PT
Pacific Ocean’s response to greenhouse gases could extend California drought for centuries

http://newsroom.ucla.edu/releases/pacific-oceans-response-to-greenhouse-gases-could-extend-california-drought-for-centuries



Another GW Alarmist that is totally WRONG.
His referenced link is a perfect example of the 'credible science' used by these hand wringing paranoids.

monolith

climber
state of being
Jan 16, 2017 - 02:12pm PT
One good start to a season in 5 or 6 years does not end a drought.

60 Million trees have died in California and that's alarming.
pud

climber
Sportbikeville & Yucca brevifolia
Jan 16, 2017 - 02:22pm PT
The drought is not solely to blame for the poor health of California's federally (mis)managed forests.
monolith

climber
state of being
Jan 16, 2017 - 02:24pm PT
Yeah, federal management in the last 5 years did it.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 16, 2017 - 05:48pm PT
pud wrote:
Another GW Alarmist that is totally WRONG.
His referenced link is a perfect example of the 'credible science' used by these hand wringing paranoids.


and the link to the Nature article was in the link above:
http://www.nature.com/articles/srep33325

and is not behind the paywall, y'all can read it.


I'd be interested in pud's technical criticism of the paper. Basically it shows how radiative forcing affected California precipitation in the past. Climate responds to all the forcings, and CO2 is one of them... leading to the conclusion that global warming due to anthropogenic CO2 increases could also affect the California precipitation.

Thus, it is the prolonged nature of the SST [sea surface temperature] anomalies, rather than extraordinary magnitude that is exceptional in these earlier Holocene events. If such prolonged, but not especially high-magnitude, events are associated with exceptional aridity or increased moisture in the past, they would likely be capable of contributing to prolonged aridity in the future.
...
Taken together, paleoclimatological and paleoceanographic records indicate a system sensitive to radiative forcing which can generate centennial or longer changes in the hydroclimatology of California. As greenhouse gas forcing differs from the earlier climate forcing in terms of mechanisms, wave-lengths affected and seasonal and latitudinal properties, so to the ultimate response of the Pacific may differ. Although climate modeling experiments suggest that current forcing by increased greenhouse gasses may produce an opposite oceanic response in the future, much uncertainty remains in such estimates7,37. However, as both model experiments and the paleorecords presented here demonstrate the potential sensitivity of the Pacific Ocean and California climate to radiative forcing, the response of the Pacific and the ENSO system over the 21st century remains in need of greater understanding in order to fully anticipate the effects of increasing greenhouse gasses on California’s hydroclimatology.

It isn't a stretch, and the conclusion seems quite reasoned.

But maybe pud has some other articles to reference, or some science that provides an alternative perspective.
pud

climber
Sportbikeville & Yucca brevifolia
Jan 17, 2017 - 07:04pm PT
Ed,
I notice you fail to mention malamute's link that boasted the erroneous headline predicting a drought lasting centuries.
Your selective 'facts' only show your narrow view of a complex problem.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 17, 2017 - 08:37pm PT
yep, my narrow view is to read the source papers...
sorry if that bothers you.

By the way you act around here, you don't exactly come off as the "sensitive type."

You definitely don't come off as someone concerned with the "bigger more complex picture." But maybe I'm wrong, pud could link the science papers he's read that reveal that picture for him.

ß Î Ø T Ç H

Boulder climber
ne'er–do–well
Jan 17, 2017 - 08:41pm PT
"clean-up on aisle 6"
pud

climber
Sportbikeville & Yucca brevifolia
Jan 18, 2017 - 08:35am PT
yep, my narrow view is to read the source papers...
sorry if that bothers you.

By the way you act around here, you don't exactly come off as the "sensitive type."

You definitely don't come off as someone concerned with the "bigger more complex picture." But maybe I'm wrong, pud could link the science papers he's read that reveal that picture for him.

Your self righteous pompous ass attitude seems to be doing well for you Ed. Don't change.
mouse from merced

Trad climber
The finger of fate, my friends, is fickle.
Jan 18, 2017 - 08:54am PT
G_Gnome

Trad climber
Cali
Jan 18, 2017 - 09:38am PT
When reason fails resort to personal attacks. Now where else have I seen this behavior lately?!
pud

climber
Sportbikeville & Yucca brevifolia
Jan 18, 2017 - 10:57am PT
By the way you act around here, you don't exactly come off as the "sensitive type."

You definitely don't come off as someone concerned with the "bigger more complex picture.

Ed H runs out of reason quite often.
mouse from merced

Trad climber
The finger of fate, my friends, is fickle.
Jan 18, 2017 - 01:05pm PT
"Aisle 6...CLEAN-UP!"
john hansen

climber
Jan 24, 2018 - 06:27pm PT
Been a year since the last post on this thread.

Was in Yosemite about ten days ago and the damage was stunning. The sides of the roads had thousands of trees that the Park Service has cut down. Fifty trees every hundred yards on either side.

Like this.


The Cathedral picnic area looked like a logging mill site with hundreds of 1 to 2 foot , 20 foot logs stacked up.

Mariposa and Oakhurst were even worse. Some one above mentioned 55% die off by 2016. Now there's miles of road with at least that much.

Great place to be if you are in the tree removal business..

To me Yosemite will never be the same.
monolith

climber
state of being
Jan 24, 2018 - 06:34pm PT
A drought could last 500 years and still have 50 good years. Would you look at such a period as about 50 droughts or take the big picture and view it as a single drought?
WBraun

climber
Jan 24, 2018 - 07:44pm PT
The Valley is very much alive.

A river runs thru it.

The river is life ......
TomCochrane

Trad climber
Cascade Mountains and Monterey Bay
Jan 24, 2018 - 08:07pm PT
before all the pines grew up over the past 60 years it used to be a lot easier to walk around the valley and look up at the routes on the rocks
mouse from merced

Trad climber
The finger of fate, my friends, is fickle.
Jan 24, 2018 - 08:41pm PT
So right, Tom.

It used to be the oak was king.

Nature is nothing if not cyclical.

I recall two years ago on a shuttle bus one tourist lady decrying the lack of view due to the trees lining the road.
TomCochrane

Trad climber
Cascade Mountains and Monterey Bay
Jan 24, 2018 - 08:49pm PT
oaks provided the native people about 80% of their diet...before the California legislature authorized a bounty for Indian scalps

all those grasslands with old oaks were native farms

white man doesn't know how to care for them or what to do with them

TLP

climber
Jan 24, 2018 - 09:01pm PT
Drought and large numbers of trees killed by bark beetles are pretty much the same thing. Conifer bark and wood are full of resin ducts, and that resin is under slight pressure. When a beetle (larva or adult) breaks through the cells surrounding a resin duct as it chews around, the resin flows out copiously and carries the little bugger right out, plus it's been slimed with probably mildly insecticidal resin and is toast. A healthy pine tree can be attacked by thousands of beetles and still "pitch them out" as it's called. I observed this first hand in about a 2-ft diameter pine right near where live, about 20 years ago. I thought it was a goner, the entire trunk was covered with little blobs of mixed resin and chewed bark and larvae in them. But no, it withstood the massive beetle attack and thrives to this day. However, trees that are in severe water stress (whether all the time, or just at the right season, I'm not sure) just don't have the resin pressure to pitch out the beetles, and they die. So the mass tree die-offs from beetles are largely caused by drought. It's compounded by overly dense forests, which now lack the regular ground-level fires that would reduce the amount of new trees that grow. Too many trees sucking up the moisture.

It's peripheral to the main topic, but worthwhile to note that there never, ever was a "pristine" condition of the Sierra Nevada forests, not modified in a huge way by human actions, at least not since the Ice Ages. Right away that the last glaciation melted away and forests moved into the Sierra, so did people, and they started burning it right from day 1. Muir and everyone else wrote about the frequency of fires and all the smoke. But they were mostly ground level fires and all the giant trees that appear in the forest censuses of around 1900 were unaffected. Once the old growth was cut down and replaced by a dog fur of small trees, the forest was screwed. Might not have mattered much even if we hadn't gone all suppression - when that secondary forest burns, it's stand-replacing and the succession is reset back to square one. It'll take decades to get back to a forest condition where there are frequent (every 15-25 years) ground fires. By then, with climate change, the most adapted species will be oak and chaparral. And poison oak.

Still a magic place.
neebee

Social climber
calif/texas
Jan 24, 2018 - 10:13pm PT
hey there say, all... i think i missed this, the first time...

thanks for sharing, jose...

thanks for the bump, too, john hansen...

:)
Batrock

Trad climber
Burbank
Jan 25, 2018 - 05:53pm PT
The bark beetle is just natures way of restoring balance for an over zealous forest management system. We need a good fire to rip through and take out these trees and have a "do over" but man lives too closely with nature now and it's tough to let nature take it's course.
limpingcrab

Trad climber
the middle of CA
Jan 25, 2018 - 06:09pm PT

I think others have touched on the idea that forest density is a big part of the problem (if there even is a problem).

For example, a good friend who's the biologist for the southern CA Edison property up around Shaver and Huntington lakes told me about the data they have. (I'm going to make up the numbers, because I don't remember them, just to explain the idea)

There are currently 100 trees per acre and the drought and beetles have killed 60 trees per acre. However, the historical density was around 40 trees per acre. In other words, the forest is self regulating and returning closer to the natural carrying capacity.

I don't think the die offs are a very big deal, and from an ecological point of view it's fun to go to the mountains and watch them change. Maybe the change is for the better since there are too many trees.

On a side note, published studies show that snags (standing dead trees) do not significantly increase wildfire severity or frequency.
John M

climber
Jan 25, 2018 - 06:32pm PT
On a side note, published studies show that snags (standing dead trees) do not significantly increase wildfire severity or frequency.

I believe they were talking about dead trees with no needles and few branches left on them. Trees that have recently died or are near dying are highly flammable.
limpingcrab

Trad climber
the middle of CA
Jan 25, 2018 - 08:53pm PT
That's what I thought too, John, but when I read the paper they didn't really distinguish between dead trees with or without needles. They did mention that the oils in living trees burn really hot and longer. Maybe dead needles burn more easily and living needles burn hotter so it's a wash? That's kinda what I gathered from it but I should read it again to double check.
John M

climber
Jan 25, 2018 - 09:27pm PT
Needles tend to fall off within one year of a tree dying. Thats why many areas in the Sierra don't look as bad as they first did when trees first started dying, because dead snags are harder to see then a tree with dead needles on it. My guess is that they are talking about dead snags, rather then dead trees with needles on them. If you look at some of the videos about how quickly and how hot a dead christmas tree burns versus one that is watered or fresh, then you can see the difference. And if you think about how much heat it takes to torch a piece of wood, verses a dead branch with needles on it, then you could see that a dead or dying tree that still has its needles is much more dangerous then a dead snag with no needles and fewer branches. I believe that the forest has been much more dangerous during the first years of the die off, and if we come out of the drought, then each year that we are out, and fewer trees die from the beetle infection, then the trees that are already dead become less dangerous each year. As their needles and branches fall off.

What I wonder is how well the trees would do to survive this year, if we go back into drought. After lasts years record wet year.

I do agree that our forests are overgrown. But the the die off from the beetles is in my opinion making the forest very dangerous as I believe it causes fires to be larger and to burn and kill everything, rather then skip around and not kill larger trees, and not scorch the earth. The fire in Yellowstone is a good example of what happens when you have drought and a die off of trees. Some areas were completely torched and the soil was sterilized, making regrowth happen a lot slower.

thats just my opinion. I am not an expert, though over the years in Yosemite I was friends with a few.
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