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Dapper Dan
Trad climber
Redwood City
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Topic Author's Reply - Mar 17, 2016 - 04:25pm PT
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Not sure if I took advantage but I kept my usual buying regime in place , just bought more and at lower values ..
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Fritz
Trad climber
Choss Creek, ID
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Mar 17, 2016 - 05:03pm PT
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I'll drink to the market being back to start of year levels, although the S & P 500, which is the index I pay the most attention to, is still a few points short of crawling out of the 2016 hole.
I haven't been "too-skeered" and didn't sell, but I also didn't buy.
Here's a Yahoo YTD S & P 500 Index chart, with volume shown in the bar chart at the bottom.
and here's a Yahoo 10 year S & P 500 Index chart, with volume shown in the bar chart at the bottom and a link to the chart, if you want to play with the interactive parts of it. (Who here doesn't like interactive parts?)
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPC#{"range":"10y","allowChartStacking":true}
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Mar 17, 2016 - 05:19pm PT
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Fritzi, you'll drink to yer kat climbing a tree. :-)
I've been buying all along although I will admit to being 'concerned' for
a while there. I really think the Chinese will muddle along. Just the other
day they lowered their banks' reserve funds in order to free up more money
for loans. As long as this money goes to deserving private sector companies,
and not state-owned firms that should be shuttered, then they've done a gud
thang. The Euros just poured more money into Greek banks so they seem
determined to keep that up which is good for my Euro bonds but not so good
for the overall situation there. That said the next move is up to Draghi
and it will be verrry interesting as he is about out of ammo. The negative
interest rates hand is played out and is about to be called. Will he fold
or see and raise, or lower in actuality. I doubt it. The immigrants are
a vast sucking sound like a pneumothorax and money that might have gone to
the Euro economy is now going into that wound. They're pretty messed up
over there but they do seem to muddle along, too. Right now I feel like
moving my Euro equities into bonds.
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Fritz
Trad climber
Choss Creek, ID
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Mar 17, 2016 - 05:42pm PT
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Reilly! Speaking of toasting my cat Harley. I have discovered a close correlation between his tree-climbing and the stock market. If he scoots up a tree, the market will be up, and the higher he climbs the more the market will be up.
Why shouldn't I drink to that?
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Dapper Dan
Trad climber
Redwood City
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Topic Author's Reply - Mar 17, 2016 - 06:01pm PT
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that's just good science ^^^
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Mar 17, 2016 - 06:51pm PT
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Blahblah was spot on. Wish I had enough faith to have bought in heavily at his called bottom.
Oh well. Just wait, it will go even lower at some point within the year.
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Dapper Dan
Trad climber
Redwood City
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Topic Author's Reply - Jun 24, 2016 - 05:43pm PT
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How ya'll doing out there today ? My little portfolio took a tough right hook today , no big deal . What are Supertopo investors doing today ?
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Dapper Dan
Trad climber
Redwood City
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Topic Author's Reply - Jun 24, 2016 - 05:48pm PT
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BTC ? Bitcoin ???
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ms55401
Trad climber
minneapolis, mn
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Jun 24, 2016 - 06:42pm PT
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The more it goes down, the more I buy. Loves me some Brexit. Of course, if your horizon is three, five, seven years, well, probably not a great day for you.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Jun 25, 2016 - 11:47am PT
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While I wouldn't be buying Euro stocks right now I will be buying USA, baby!
I think that if your timeline is only 2-3 years you don't have much to worry
about. I'd be quite surprised if US markets aren't back to where they were
Thursday within 3 months.
And even if this does lead to the breakup of the EU that will take years
and in the long run, unless the EU commissars come up with a new way to
thwart progress, it will turn out for the better because that's what people
do - they figure out ways to make sh!t work. That's what's wrong with the
EU - they hate that word 'work'.
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jstan
climber
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Jun 25, 2016 - 11:54am PT
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Fritz: TFPU
Schwab's advice, like that of Bill Gross, and Warren Buffet, has always been worth reading. I think we are observing the spread of a special form of ignorance across populations. A widening belief that present actions do not lead to future consequences. Our actions causing destabilization in the middle east are a case in point. Brexit is another. Most immediately Schwab has not programmed in the possibility of Trump being elected. We seem to be going from one absurd decision to the next.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Jun 25, 2016 - 12:00pm PT
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jstan, how do you program for sentiment and herd behavior? Besides, there
will always be unforeseen consequences. Ultimately it's a crap shoot which
is why we diversify, right?
ps
I recently studied the ECB's Smets-Wouters DSGE model and when I came to
their shock algorithms I found them rather arbitrary and unrealistic.
Who ya gonna call, the Ghostbusters?
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jstan
climber
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Jun 25, 2016 - 01:05pm PT
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R:
If you studied Smets and Wouters you are pretty tough. I got only so far as to see they assume every family has savings. Not here.
I have been retired 13 years now. At the start I decided:
!. To control my greed
2. To invest where I had previous experience.
3. That I did not need more money.
Since then I have weathered a near collapse of the US's financial system and my net worth is 50% above what I had when I retired. And oh yes, I didn't lose one night's sleep.
My parents' two lessons set me up for this.
1: Father: "Work your ass off boy." (Yes, he followed the rule of not speaking twice in the same day.)
2. Mother: "Do this and you will never fail to double your money. When you have your money out to buy something, double it over and put it back in your wallet." ( She was a chatterbox by comparison.)
If Trump is elected I have to consider selling every security I presently have and get together a half million so I can buy Canadian citizenship and move to Alberta. Any other response will not be adequate for the dangers we face. Once there I have to get my lungs back in shape so I can join a pipe band again.
Eh?
You had good parents.
Actually the whole family was in a league above my own. In the hotel on a trip to see my older brother in Florida my younger brother's new wife walked into the room like a drill instructor telling us exactly what we had to do that day. Without looking up from his newspaper Kent said, "Barbara, you do know don't you, you are much nicer when you are asleep."
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Jun 25, 2016 - 01:36pm PT
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Well, John, I grew up studying Cubs box scores so Smets-Wouters was
enjoyable by comparison. <rim shot?>
You had good parents.
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slabbo
Trad climber
colo south
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Jun 25, 2016 - 02:23pm PT
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JStan---sounds like you might have read some John Bogle as well....me too
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jstan
climber
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Jun 25, 2016 - 03:39pm PT
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Roth IRA instead of 401k???
Bad idea, unless you expect to be in a higher tax bracket during your retirement.
The right decision depends upon what you expect in future. But let's look just at the present. What are you doing holding an IRA?
1. You are delaying paying a tax so you can get investment returns on what is government money. What are the returns since 2008? Piss poor. And by the way once you are over 70.5 you will not have low taxation. Oh no,no,NO. Convert to Roth, as best you may, before you are 70.5.
2. Once you are over 70.5 your ability to have variety in the available funds is drained away. Suppose we have an emergency and tax rates on you go UP. Keep that other paddle available in your lifeboat. If you are in the upper 1%, only then can you be assured your tax rates will not go up. Capech?
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John Duffield
Mountain climber
New York
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Jun 25, 2016 - 04:47pm PT
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No Balls, No Blue Chips. Buy on the dip, yada yada...
Sovereign UK Bonds or gtfo
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