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Dapper Dan
Trad climber
Redwood City
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Topic Author's Original Post - Nov 22, 2015 - 02:31pm PT
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I'm 34, married, pretty tolerant of risk in the stock market. My wife and I both contribute (mandatory and employer matched) to pensions through work (CalSTRS) , and we both contribute to separate IRA's on top of this.
I have several other ETFs and index funds that we contribute too monthly, but now we're at the point where we are wondering what other kind of funds and investment vehicles should we be looking at?
Individual stocks?
Real estate?
Bonds?
Annuities?
I'm looking for something with low expense ratios, and something I can just contribute to monthly, basically no brainer investments that a novice can manage and understand ... Thanks !
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Dapper Dan
Trad climber
Redwood City
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Topic Author's Reply - Nov 22, 2015 - 02:50pm PT
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BTW , we're in the Bay Area, a 2 bed 1 bath here on the peninsula south of SF is $850,000 and rising , it's insane ...
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darkmagus
Mountain climber
San Diego, CA
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Nov 22, 2015 - 03:18pm PT
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and sometimes you don't even need to use your own money
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Dapper Dan
Trad climber
Redwood City
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Topic Author's Reply - Nov 22, 2015 - 04:55pm PT
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you don't need bonds at your young age and annuities are a bad investment overall. If you like real estate, I would recommend you go into the real estate funds vs actually investing in flipping unless you truly know what you are doing real-estate wise.
Thank You ! I meant real estate funds, awesome advice , especially about bonds , much appreciated . I wonder if Vanguard has the research ^^^ tools you mentioned ...
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Nov 22, 2015 - 05:01pm PT
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At your age 20% bonds would not be out of order although that would be the
max and, to be honest, right now it would only be considered the equivalent
of holding cash, which you should have a good 10% in, especially right now.
Most of the people I know with serious wealth did so through real estate.
But it is a real dog eat dog business and you better have good beta. You
are young enough to take a flyer and still get back on the rock, so to speak,
so go for it! I would highly caution you about REITs, a lot of them
are bogus. My mum did very well on a private sort of REIT but, again, do
yer research, especially as to the credibility and legitimacy of the issuers.
As to getting into individual stocks, why bother unless you have an expertise
in the field or lots of time to do the research? That said, it is hard to
fault buying quality and holding it. My Proctor & Gamble has been very very
good to me (bought at $7). ;-)
I prefer Vanguard because their management fees are the lowest and as an
old sailor I like their naval schtick. ;-)
Check out Fritz's thread about 'not being skeered'. I posted an interesting
article about equity valuations the other day.
And, yes, annuities are the biggest scam going.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Nov 22, 2015 - 05:06pm PT
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I disagree about bonds in general, I've done very well on them the last few
years with little risk involved. The reason you want to be in them is that
they will make you money when your equities are not.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Nov 22, 2015 - 05:18pm PT
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Ragetta, I hear you. When I was his age I was a commodities trader.
Now shall we talk about risk? Who needs to free solo? ;-)
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Kalimon
Social climber
Ridgway, CO
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Nov 22, 2015 - 05:24pm PT
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AAPL
INTC
VOO
VXF
VPU
VDE
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Nov 22, 2015 - 05:30pm PT
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Buy me a drink and I'll tell you about slugging it out in the silver trenches
against the Hunt brothers in late '79-80. Now THAT was some highballin'!
The free soloing I did before that was tame!
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Dave
Mountain climber
the ANTI-fresno
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Nov 22, 2015 - 05:34pm PT
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What Ragetta said.
Stick to low cost mutual funds / index funds. 80%+ of fund manages aren't good enough to beat the S&P 500. 7-8% annual average return over time. Understand business cycles average 7-8 years so dips and drops will happen.
Real estate has averaged less than 1% over the last century. Not quite as good as the S&P 500.
Read up on John Bogle (Vanguard's founder). He has some good books out there.
Stick to easy autopilot investments. I'm 37, so I'm in the same boat. I put as much as is reasonable (10-12%, plus I'm lucky - my company matches 9%) in the 401k plus more in a non-restricted account outside the 401k / IRA stuff so it can be accessed to retire early on my private island (don't I wish...).
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Nov 22, 2015 - 05:42pm PT
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Regatta*, we were all young, once. I love my bonds now cause they let me sleep. ;-)
Hey, made 8.8% last year on 'em! The only risk I take now is playing in
the junk bond game. Very minor exposure so I pretend I'm still bold. ;-)
*Sorry, that's the sailor in me.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Nov 22, 2015 - 05:46pm PT
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Don't get me started on RMD's! You hear that, Bernie?
so what's the low down on 'ragetta'? Non lo capisco.
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donini
Trad climber
Ouray, Colorado
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Nov 22, 2015 - 05:50pm PT
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Gold and energy.....hmmmm, maybe not now.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Nov 22, 2015 - 05:54pm PT
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Jim, you got all the energy you need.
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ms55401
Trad climber
minneapolis, mn
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Nov 22, 2015 - 05:57pm PT
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Jesus Christ, another one of these threads?
All right, fine.
Someone above posted that Roth IRAs are good for young folk. Well, they're pretty much good for anyone who isn't already a multi-millionaire.
That's my advice. If I were an as#@&%e (I am), I might suggest that you move to a state where the cost of living isn't so high.
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Dapper Dan
Trad climber
Redwood City
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Topic Author's Reply - Nov 22, 2015 - 06:02pm PT
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I might suggest that you move to a state where the cost of living isn't so high.
lol I've been saying that for years , but wife can't bear to leave CA , I told her let's compromise and move to Sac....
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Nov 22, 2015 - 06:23pm PT
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Invest in Jammer futures.
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Fritz
Trad climber
Choss Creek, ID
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Nov 22, 2015 - 07:44pm PT
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Thanks all for the good advice on this thread. I do advocate Vanguard Mutual Funds because of their extremely low fees.
And a bow to Reilly for his good advice & mentioning this thread.
U.S. Stock market "CORRECTION!!" Why am I not "too-skeered"
http://www.supertopo.com/climbers-forum/2677901/U-S-Stock-market-CORRECTION-Why-am-I-not-too-skeered
All I can think to add is, at your tender age, a ratio of 90% stocks & 10% bonds might be more appropriate, considering the long term performance of stocks over bonds.
Land. You can make a lot of money investing in land & you can lose a lot of money investing in land. Do you feel lucky?
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Bargainhunter
climber
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Nov 22, 2015 - 09:06pm PT
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Dapper Dan,
Start here: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Getting_started
Or if you'd prefer a book, start here: http://www.amazon.com/Bogleheads-Guide-Investing-Taylor-Larimore/dp/1118921283/ref=dp_ob_title_bk
Your questions indicate that you haven't thought much about the concept of asset allocation. Start with the wiki above gradually learn about things like asset allocation based on your risk tolerance, diversification, expense ratios, tax efficiency of your investments, and creating an IPS (investment policy statement) that you adhere to.
Basic financial literacy is absent in American education, and this is a baffling.
A minimum wage earner who invests $5 a day, from 20 until retirement age of 70, in a low cost Total Stock Market fund (historic annual average yield of ~10%) in a ROTH IRA will have more than $2.3 Million at age 70. Plenty of dirtbags can do this, but they don't. Curious isn't it?
EDIT: It's like climbing a big wall. Very daunting and appearing impossible when you first start (which prevents many from even starting), but once you commit and put effort into it, bit by bit progress is made and that progress encourages you more and the end becomes achievable! Even better than a big wall, compound interest eventually takes over and does the heavy work for you, eclipsing your contributions with effortless, substantial gains.
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Dapper Dan
Trad climber
Redwood City
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Topic Author's Reply - Nov 22, 2015 - 09:11pm PT
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You can max out your Roth - each of you - and then put the rest into your 401K
^^^ this is our situation. We have great 401k's as teachers, but they only become great when you put the years in. A realistic goal is to try to retire with 75% of your final monthly take home as your pension going forward. That means we are only trying to come up with 25% through outside IRA's, to equal in retirement what we were getting while were teaching ... and we will not ever be getting social security.
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Ken M
Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
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Nov 22, 2015 - 11:11pm PT
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Good on you for giving this serious thought at your ages. Very important, so that you can take advantage of compounding.
With what you are doing, you can seriously consider early retirement, if the job just gets to be a job.
For me, I prefer a strategy that allows me to "set it and forget it". I own a lot of stock mutual funds, and it took a hell of a dip in the recession---I guess, because I didn't bother looking----and it all came back up and kept going.
my forays into individual stocks has been mixed. I would say that it requires a lot more attention.
At some point, it may be worthwhile looking at dividend paying stocks, when you want to generate cash.
But simple S&P500 type stock funds are hard to beat.
You may find the book "Liar's Poker" worth reading before individual stock investing.
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originalpmac
Mountain climber
Anywhere I like
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Nov 23, 2015 - 01:10am PT
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The title of this thread is everything that is wrong with climbing.
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ecflau
Gym climber
CA
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Nov 23, 2015 - 09:28am PT
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Hey Dapper Dan, have you heard of Wealthfront before? There are pro's/con's to every avenue you take. I mention Wealthfront because one thing you listed was low management fee's.
I believe the market goes up an average of ~10% per year over the long term... i.e. if a monkey throws 10 darts, that is what you reach. Some mutual funds perform worse then a monkey throwing darts because they have to meet quarterlys. The advantage a MF manager has is they get information you don't always get (easily)... so whats your competitive advantage? (For me, its time... I don't have to meet quarterly numbers). If you are a hands off investor, something like Wealthfront is a very useful tool, I believe the San Francisco 49's have Wealthfront setup for their players. I believe a lot of big tech companies do too. First $10k invested for free.
Here is a link to a referral : http://wlth.fr/1nLLHgA
(I know it benefits me, I get an extra $5k managed for free for every invitee.... I think it might benefit you too)
The most important thing... invest in your circle of confidence. If you are outside of it, thats when mistakes happen. No need to go chasing unicorns.
PM if you wish any have any questions.
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Dapper Dan
Trad climber
Redwood City
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Topic Author's Reply - Nov 23, 2015 - 12:03pm PT
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Thanks ecflau , I had not heard of them , I'll do a little digging and let you know ...
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slabbo
Trad climber
colo south
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Nov 23, 2015 - 01:00pm PT
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#1 you don't lose or gain anything until you sell..period
#2 diversify
#3 HSA account if you qualify a no brainer for health costs
You said you wanted "no look " stuff..autopilot if you will. Sounds like you have some already. Don't panic when thinks go up OR down
Annuities ? not in my book
commodities ? if you have a huge risk taking binge, then maybe a bit
Personally i like Vanguard
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sempervirens
climber
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Nov 23, 2015 - 02:26pm PT
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What about deciding how much of your portfolio to put in Trad IRA vs. Roth IRA? How do you figure that? I have both but I probably made a big mistake by putting the majority into Trad IRA.
Some very good info on the thread. Thanks.
Thanks Bargainhunter for the bolglehead link. I watched all 10 lessons and they are very good.
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ecflau
Gym climber
CA
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Nov 23, 2015 - 02:31pm PT
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sempervirens - have you tried using a online calculator (a good, 30 second check to give you a ballpark; a more accurate one if you are a nuts and bolts guy is you can go into TurboTax and extrapolate your financial life) to calculate Roth vs Traditional? That would be a good first step.
___
Dapper Dan - cool yeah just LMK.
In addition in your research, there is one key guy on their BOD named Burton Makiel. Look into him and his background... that was what personally swayed me. Not because he is a "genius" (though some may be given his resume) but because of how he sets his margins. You can get a glance into his thought process in one of his books, possibly the 2nd most famous investment book there is, "A random walk down wallstreet".
One other thing to note, since you mentioned "real estate" - you can actually take out a loan from your 401k where you can grow your investments tax free - something only avail for 1st time home buyers. Be warned though, we're at pretty much the 3rd longest bull run in history, and a lot turbulence is going on; you have to wonder if the Fed is just trying to keep their heads above water until Obama leaves office. Still, lots of undervalued equities out there with (IMO) low risk that have more than enough cash on hand to survive the next economic downturn. Not trying to be Nostradamus or anything but economics are inherently cyclical. Even bons/REITs will feel the effect of a rise in interest rates that many expect in the next month.
Best of luck.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Nov 23, 2015 - 02:52pm PT
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Even bons/REITs will feel the effect of a rise in interest rates that many expect in the next month.
REITs more so as bonds have already priced the rate hike in, short term
bonds anyway. Who's into intermediate or long term now anyway?
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ecflau
Gym climber
CA
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Nov 23, 2015 - 03:00pm PT
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Ha perhaps I was too assuming in my statement. "May affect" ... many dividend stocks like T, VZ and O haven't really seen much of an effect. Though I'm nto sure they would even really see much affect if any; I haven't sold but I'm probably going to wait out the year to see what happens with interest rates before I put any more money in dividend stocks at the moment.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Nov 23, 2015 - 03:06pm PT
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Wow, I'm impressed with the quality of free advise handed out to Dapper Dan.
Question: I'm 60, without a current job and only have 65,000 in my IRA. WTF do I do?
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JLP
Social climber
The internet
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Nov 23, 2015 - 03:44pm PT
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In general, suggest maxing out 401k, Roth, both, and anything else you might qualify for, such as HSA, first, before you start adding a bunch of lifestyle "disposable income" materialistic garbage to your life - that new car, the home upgrade, etc. Stay lean until you can truly afford the increases in your lifestyle. Embrace your apartment, your old car, whatever. Retirement savings first. Nothing in this thread works without the capital.
But above all - the best financial advice ever is - stay employed. Be useful, get sh#t done for your employer or customers, be the best there is at what you do.
Don't be the guy in the above post. Sorry dude.
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rockgymnast
Trad climber
Virginia
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Nov 23, 2015 - 03:49pm PT
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Like most things in life, the answer is "it depends."
Funding a 401K vs. ROTH IRA - many (most) corporate 401K plans offer matching money. If one funds a ROTH instead of a 401 plan, you are forfeiting free money. Because of this free money, a 401 K will grow faster and accumulate more money that your ROTH IRA alone.
Deciding between a ROTH vs. a traditional IRA is betting you know what tax rates will be in the future (10,20 or 30 years in the future). If one has a crystal ball, and you know you will be in a higher tax bracket than you are now, then the ROTH looks attractive. If you will be in a lower tax bracket in retirement, the traditional IRA looks better.
To compare "apples to apples", if you are going to be in the same tax bracket in retirement as you are now, then it is a wash, the ROTH and the traditional come out the same.
To make the math easy, assume you are in the 25% tax bracket now, and the 25% in retirement (it works for any tax rate).
At year's end, you have 'x' amount of money to put in an IRA account. If you put it in a ROTH account, you will pay 25% tax now, so you have .75x$ invested. Let's say you invest wisely so that when you retire it has grown 4 fold - 4 times .75x = 3x tax free
If you invest the same x amount in a traditional IRA and it grows 4 fold, you would have 4 times x = 4x at 25% tax rate = 3x after tax.
Both accounts work out to the same amount.
The game is, "do you know what your tax rate will be when you retire?", "Is having all your money/income in retirement tax free a good idea? In retirement, you might want to have reportable/taxable income so that you can offset it by using your deductions (i.e. mortgage/state taxes/etc.) These deductions would be lost/minimized if all your income was tax free.
And who knows what the gov't is going to do in the next 10,20 or 30 years when it comes to our tax system. Maybe we go to a flat tax system (i.e. lower future tax rates). Perhaps Bernie Sanders gets elected and we go to a more socialist tax system (i.e. higher tax rates). Or the gov't in their infinite wisdom decides because of the extremely high and growing federal deficit, reneges on its promise and decides to partially or fully tax ROTH IRA's.
A traditional IRA now is a sure thing, a ROTH IRA is only a promise for something in the future (a bird in the hand ....).
Whatever you decide to do, don't do it because of advise here. Talk to a financial advisor who does not work on commission and will look at your total financial picture (life ins./college saving/emergency funds/estate planning and any other factor that might be applicable.)
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Nov 23, 2015 - 03:59pm PT
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I'm 60, without a current job and only have 65,000 in my IRA. WTF do I do?
The short answer: read John Dillinger's book.
The long answer: make sure yer money is SAFELY invested. To be honest, I
would say put it into a CD for at least 6 months. If you must do something
more dynamic then put it in the Vanguard Wellington Admiral shares fund.
It couldn't be safer there and it will appreciate. The 'Wellie' is one of
the oldest funds in existence and its track record is superb. The current
allocations are :60%–70% stocks, 30%–40% bonds. With as unsettled as things
are right now that bond allocation is not a bad thing. Sure it won't go up
a lot but it shouldn't go down much either.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Nov 23, 2015 - 04:16pm PT
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Oh sorry JLP, I forgot to mention my income property and private mortgage income. On a cost basis off the above mentioned debt free assets I'm netting 181 k this year, or 6.93% of my cost basis. My equity funds apportionment is comparatively light, slightly less than half the income props, and since I cashed out virtually all equities by 2007 I have enjoyed the bull run with my current funds having a low cost basis. The over valuation of the 2015 market and fed manipulation has had me spooked. So, my question to you guys is: after taking a large percentage of profit off the equities table, where can i reliably make better than my current 6.93% R.E. income with the same level of security I feel in owning hard assets?
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ecflau
Gym climber
CA
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Nov 23, 2015 - 04:22pm PT
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I wanted to say "blow the rest of your IRA on hookers and blow, then take off your pants and walk into the middle of a intersection... you'll be taken care of well by a mental institution"
Guess I'm too late for that suggestion though.
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ms55401
Trad climber
minneapolis, mn
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Nov 23, 2015 - 04:38pm PT
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Question: I'm 60, without a current job and only have 65,000 in my IRA. WTF do I do?
Um, cultivate a taste for cat food?
Kidding!!!
The good news is that you're not appreciably worse-off than the typical American at age 60. I don't know if you're looking for work, but suppose that you no longer are in the hunt. I probably would look to live on about $10,000 per year until you can claim full Social Security benefits at age 70. So maybe put that $65,000 in a money market fund bearing, if you're lucky, 1% of interest, and have that sixty-five grand bridge your living until 70.
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sempervirens
climber
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Nov 23, 2015 - 05:32pm PT
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Thanks Ragetta,
In your opinion then, is there any reason to have a Trad IRA rather than Roth IRA? You're suggesting 100% of retirement investment in the Roth, eh?
edit: I just realized, that is a dumb question, 'cause it kinda depends on how much one needs the tax break now. Which I do need and it will be annoying to see my taxes increased if I put more into the Roth. I gotta sharpen my pencil...
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Nov 23, 2015 - 05:43pm PT
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You posters above missed my second post I guess.
A lot of people here seem to be pushing vanguard. We found better value with T.Rowe Price funds. Our parameters in choosing were: low or no loads in and out, low management fees, a proven manager with at least a 15 year record of reliable growth and nor near retirement. The small and Midcap value and capital appreciation products fit our bill.
Now, to my question; is it soon time to get off the bull and look for new opportunities and if so where, how?
And Dan, as a man who has inhabited all economic stations in life from dirt bag poor to very wealthy the best advise I can offer is to stay as debt free as possible, save, and buy in when everyone else is running for the exits. You do this with little or no leverage and you'll have no problems later.
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Contractor
Boulder climber
CA
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Nov 23, 2015 - 06:38pm PT
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Perhaps a few novel ideas:
save money for a down payment
Buy used cars
Stay-cations
Eat in
Limit the toys
JC for the kids
Stay fit
Attempt to stay married
Warning: These activities may be harmful to one's movie star/social media persona.
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apogee
climber
Technically expert, safe belayer, can lead if easy
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Nov 23, 2015 - 07:04pm PT
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Nice to have you back, Ragetta!
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Nov 23, 2015 - 07:54pm PT
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5%? BwaHaHaHa! More like 2-3%, and that ain't 'middle class'.
Moosie, how do you say 'noblesse oblige' in Polish?
Let them eat pirogi!
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Nov 23, 2015 - 08:11pm PT
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Not only is he apparently Polish, he is!
And apparently you don't know too many Scots. ;-)
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Dapper Dan
Trad climber
Redwood City
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Topic Author's Reply - Nov 23, 2015 - 08:14pm PT
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CA school teacher so no Social Security for us, not that SS ever figured heavily into our plans anyway...
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Jan
Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
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Nov 24, 2015 - 12:08am PT
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I'd like to point out that with TIAA-CREF, the teacher's fund that Dapper Dan may or may not have access to, one of the biggest benefits is that you can buy and sell stock without paying a fee. They used to be unlimited in number of trades but now you can only buy and sell the same stock three times in one month. This allows you to gamble a bit in good times and escape with the click of a mouse when you get nervous.
Knowing this, my strategy based on almost a century of stock history, was to buy every Nov. 1 and sell every March 1 as historically that has been more profitable than buy and hold. A lot of this has to do with the federal budget and tax cycle. Fortunately, using this strategy I had sold all my stocks a few days before the big crash of 2001 and preserved my gains.
One of the biggest factors in stocks is the price of oil which is very low right now. When it starts to rise, time to think more conservatively. That was also going on in the spring of 2001.
TIAA-CREF also has excellent information available on investing and retirement, all for free. I read everything they ever published and it was extremely useful. I highly recommend them if they are available. They have many choices of funds including 401, IRA and Roth IRA.
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Bargainhunter
climber
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Nov 24, 2015 - 12:35am PT
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Ragetta you need to understand that 33% is a _marginal tax rate_, which applies to only income above the cutoff for next lowest marginal tax rate. We have an incrementally increasing tax scale, thus the marginal rate only applies to a fraction of the total income, not the entire income; it's isn't the same as the effective tax rate.
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the Fet
climber
Tu-Tok-A-Nu-La
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Nov 24, 2015 - 11:38am PT
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I've asked a number of financial advisers how much should I invest in real estate vs. equities and none of them gave me a straight answer. They seem to know equities investing well, but have no clue about real estate or the appropriate mix between the two. Then the people who know a lot about real estate generally focus on that and don't know much about equities.
So I have just bought a few properties and invest regularly in equities.
I will say that I've made a lot more in real estate than equities for much less initial investment.
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Dapper Dan
Trad climber
Redwood City
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Topic Author's Reply - Nov 24, 2015 - 11:50am PT
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I called TIAA-CREF and they no longer manage CalStrs, so bummer there. They said a company called VOYA manages them now...
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JLP
Social climber
The internet
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Nov 24, 2015 - 02:19pm PT
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5%? BwaHaHaHa! More like 2-3%, and that ain't 'middle class'. Roth phases out above 116k, gone at 131k for 2015. Hardly the top 2-3%. More like middle career, middle class. With a paltry $5.5k contribution limit, the numbers posted above are a fantasy.
Let's assume on ROI of 7% over 32 years Good luck with that.
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blahblah
Gym climber
Boulder
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Nov 24, 2015 - 02:20pm PT
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Maybe the CA pension management is doing exactly what SS is doing namely paying the beneficiaries from the contributions of the younger contributors without any thought to investment i.e. ponzi scheme.
Of course, but it's important to remember the teachers (and government employees generally and their agents) are the ones conducting the scheme, and the taxpayers are the victims. As in normal ponzi schemes, it's hard to have too much sympathy for the victims--they get what the deserve for abdicating all responsibility. Or I suppose another way to look at it is something like Romney's famous 47% line--when about half of the electorate is on the government dole, why should things like government run ponzi schemes benefiting that half be a surprise?
Interesting to see the careful advice on how two government employees can shelter their taxpayer generated profits in a way so that they pay minimal income tax on their profits, all of which came from taxpayers.
This is probably from the same people who decry "corporate welfare" and get all hot and bothered when corporations, often in a desperate attempt to avoid collapse, structure their business activities so as to reduce their tax burden.
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donini
Trad climber
Ouray, Colorado
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Nov 24, 2015 - 03:25pm PT
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There are just two economists who truly understand how the American economic system works......and they disagree.
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Dapper Dan
Trad climber
Redwood City
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Topic Author's Reply - Nov 24, 2015 - 04:03pm PT
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Yo T Hocking what do you teach ??
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Dapper Dan
Trad climber
Redwood City
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Topic Author's Reply - Nov 24, 2015 - 04:56pm PT
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Yo Tad , I'm 3rd grade and my wife is kinder :)
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Nov 24, 2015 - 05:24pm PT
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And why we are thinking southern Oregon coast.
Dood, southern Washington coast = no state income tax.
Cross the bridge to Astoria and shop sans state sales tax*.
yer welcome
*plus you won't have to pump yer own gas!
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donini
Trad climber
Ouray, Colorado
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Nov 24, 2015 - 05:29pm PT
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The fact that Oregon doesn't have state sales tax is just plain dumb. They need to get money from somewhere......check out their real estat taxes. A sales tax would get revenue from out of state visitors and Oregon is blessed with high tourism. High real estate taxes our a burden shouldered only by residents.
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Anastasia
climber
Home
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Nov 25, 2015 - 11:42pm PT
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As a wise man, a very rich man said... Never put your money in one place. Mix it up. Do it all... Take a few high risk stock at an amount you can lose. Some low risk stocks because you just might get lucky, etc. I know someone who did that with Apple in 1989... Yes, she is very set right now. Put some in bonds, 401k, CD ladders, property, etc. Real Estate is heading into another bubble. If it's time to buy anything, it is condos because no one is going for them. I think that is temporary since in California... We tend to have more people than homes. They have to live somewhere. Oh and if your stocks are always earning, the line doesn't zig zag... Someone is stealing. Nothing goes up in a straight line EVER.
That's my two cents.
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Bruce Morris
Social climber
Belmont, California
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Nov 26, 2015 - 12:23am PT
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Never invest in anything that breathes or eats.
You'll never get back your principle.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Nov 26, 2015 - 10:25am PT
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Tad, I hear ya on Brookings and Bandon, two sweet towns, if a little remote.
Some surprisingly good restaurants, too!
The Big Boulder at Bandon...(30')
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Mad Max
Trad climber
Bakersfield
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Dec 23, 2015 - 09:37am PT
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Okay I'm resurrecting this thread because I enjoy reading about investment strategies, and would like some opinions on my own:
I'm 22 in January, and I'm currently contributing as much as I (safely) can into a Roth IRA, post-tax. Very aggressive portfolio as well, as I have a 40-year horizon.
As I go along down the road, and get to being able to max out my contributions, 50% of the leftovers will go into another highly aggressive set of funds through a discount broker or something, the other 50% of the leftovers will go into possibly money market funds for shorter term goals like maintaining property and vehicles or major purchases, etc.
That's my strategy for now, along with just spending less and saving more in general. I'll keep adjusting it as I learn new things and realize new ways to prepare myself for the future.
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Ken M
Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
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Dec 23, 2015 - 11:04am PT
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That's a reasonable strategy, and you are ahead of 99% of your peers.
One thing: What do you mean when you say "very aggressive"?
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Mad Max
Trad climber
Bakersfield
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Dec 23, 2015 - 11:14am PT
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Very aggressive to me would mean 85%-95% of my portfolio would be company stocks and ETFs, then some boring bonds.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Dec 23, 2015 - 11:25am PT
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Good on you, Max. Just heard on the radio that 20% of Americans don't even
have a checking or savings account, but I bet they have a better TV than me.
And if it weren't for bonds I wouldn't have made much moolah this year.
The reason you go into bonds is to make money when yer equities aren't.
Look at the lifetime returns of some of the good bond funds and particularly
their volatility and they aren't far behind equities in the long run.
BTW, the 50 day moving average crossed the 200 day MVA, in what is called
a 'Golden Cross', the other day so things are looking up and the traditional
year end rally is almost a done deal. YMMV! YGD!
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Mad Max
Trad climber
Bakersfield
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Dec 23, 2015 - 11:31am PT
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I'm cashing in on good energy companies with my spare change at 90% discount, next year companies like Freeport mcmoran are gonna change up their strategy to make better use of $30-$60/bbl oil and I'll be enjoying some returns in the next few years for that.
I have some other accounts that quietly gather modest amounts of savings money for emergencies and unexpected bumps in the road.
I have an account at Lending Club, and I own about 25 notes there at $25 apiece, diversified somewhat modestly so that provides some steady revenue and I add $50 to it here and there
There are good bonds out there, so I could pick a few up for rainy days
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Ken M
Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
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It IS an investment opportunity!
The drop in the US market is caused by China, but not dependent upon China. Nothing has happened to the underlying fundamentals of the US, or the US market,
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Jon Beck
Trad climber
Oceanside
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The prospect of 20 dollar oil has people nervous. Glad to see the Saudi Arabia suffer, but there is going to be chaos in the mid east when the monarchy there bails.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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"The market climbs a wall of worry." It's got to build that wall first,
then it will climb it. This is another buying opportunity. We probably
should nuke N Korea and get that over with. As to the Middle East, it is
just the usual drama queens. For all the saber rattling there they subscribe
to the same story line that we do - "It's the economy, stoopid."
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Dapper Dan
Trad climber
Redwood City
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Topic Author's Reply - Jan 7, 2016 - 11:53am PT
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If you're in the market for the long haul then nothing to worry about... market will rebound and reclaim all loses eventually. Rely on the fact the market has returned 8.5% for the past 150 years ....
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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There is a possibility that the start of 2016 in equity markets worldwide is more than a mere correction, more than the start of a bear market. Perhaps it the hissing sound of a deflating bubble of unjustified equity prices with currencies to follow in a war of devaluation.
So resident financial wizards, where would one go for safety with a large stockpile of USD. Just picking the brainiacs here for useful advice.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Yes, I noticed Moose, but feel I'm already overexposed in physical holdings and especially in mining equities. With no end to government deficit binge spending in sight I want to be safe rather than sorry with cash. What to do?
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Vanguard's take:
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/article/econ-outlook-2016-122015
"Despite our more muted outlook for stocks, the ongoing U.S. equity bull market is likely to persist for some time."
If I was sitting on cash I might wait a while to see how much the China
thang spooks the scaredy cats. How long is a 'while'? Probably and
hopefully less than a month. The Commie Capitalists seem to be taking this
quite seriously if only measured by their selling of tens of billions of
their carefully accumulated dollars.
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pyro
Big Wall climber
Calabasas
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Moose WTF is happening to the market?
I predict just like last year the INDEX will stay the same.
Not a Wallstreet year to brag about
Liberals say the economy is doing great!
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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I like R.E., I've made lots from it. 50%, in Ak and NV. Will soon take a beating on values in AK though it should offset by gains in NV.
Individual stocks and managed funds (except mining stocks) 10%.
Treasuries and corporate paper 5%.
Physical gold, silver and mining stock 5%.
Cash 30%. But I need a good deal of the cash to finance my son's building operations with a 5% interest return. The rest, the majority, is what I sometimes wake up with nightmares over. What to do if you really don't trust the long term viability of the currency?
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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You've got to be a fool to serve the self interests of professional financial advisers. For that matter you could include venture capitalists, stock brokers, bankers, mortgage brokers, fed and government officials. I'm looking for grass root ideas from self responsible people that have succeeded on their own.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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I'd say Fatty has succeeded very nicely, thank you very much. Not bad for a former cop!
That said I would give a tad more credence to Vanguard's beta, the link to which is a few
posts back.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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I don't know Fatty from Skinny. Why don't you post his commentary from the village of the banned tomorrow Moose.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Jan 11, 2016 - 11:10am PT
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Well, good sir, what that article avoids mentioning is how much business trucks have
taken away from the railroads. Now with lower fuel costs shippers can truck directly to a
customer rather than railing it to a hub and then trucking it to its destination. Typical Bank of
America - don't get me started on those azzhole idiot crankloons!
I walked into my local B of A, where I have banked for 24 years, and handed over a small
check from Fidelity, which me Mum had signed over to me, and the teller says,
"We don't accept third party checks any more."
"Well, then what you're also saying is that you don't want my business any longer?"
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Jan 13, 2016 - 05:31pm PT
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How far will this market correction go guys?
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Gary
Social climber
Where in the hell is Major Kong?
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Jan 13, 2016 - 05:43pm PT
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I'd say Fatty has succeeded very nicely, thank you very much. Not bad for a former cop!
That said I would give a tad more credence to Vanguard's beta, the link to which is a few
posts back.
IIRC, Fattrad advertised himself falsely as a CPA. What does that do for his credibility?y?
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ecflau
Gym climber
CA
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Jan 13, 2016 - 05:58pm PT
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how good are you are reading the future? ;)
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Jan 13, 2016 - 06:05pm PT
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Studly, I hope you read the rest of the article and some of the sensible
comments. IIRC RBS doesn't have a sterling track record. Read Vanguard's
predictions which I provided a link for on the previous page; they have a
much better track record IMHO.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Jan 13, 2016 - 06:33pm PT
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Equity returns in the 6-8% range, eh Reilly. Still have faith in that outlook?
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Ken M
Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
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Jan 13, 2016 - 07:09pm PT
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The stock market is not undergoing a correction.
It is being dragged down by China.
Absolutely nothing has changed in the US to impact stocks. So once the fear wears off, people who have cashed out (including the Chinese) will be looking for someplace to put their money.
Guess where?
To me, it looks like a good time to buy.
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SteveW
Trad climber
The state of confusion
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Jan 13, 2016 - 08:51pm PT
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Buy low.
Sell high.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Jan 13, 2016 - 09:36pm PT
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Rick, Vanguard is predicting 4-6% equity returns and 2.5% bond returns
this year. I'll take that. China's problems aren't that bad and they seem
to have the cojones to deal with them fairly sanely. The other developing
nations, which fared so poorly in the late 90's, are in much better shape
now even if they are suffering a bit from the commodities deflation. Brasil
is in big trouble although we should still be able to get our orange juice
and coffee. Europe appears like they might put their big girl panties on
and inject some more life into the EU via 'QE' measures and the softening of
the Euro hasn't hurt, either. And BTW, cash inflows into various equities
were the highest in 6 months in the last week. It would seem the savvy
people do see this as a buying opportunity. This is the time it helps to
have done some scary runouts.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Jan 13, 2016 - 10:13pm PT
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How low steve, using the S&P as the metric?
Reilly, increased inflation of the bubble always happens before it pops. The markets are over valued, the consumers cautious with decreased disposable income, China doesn't have the market its machine needs to keep from stalling out, Europe is a failed socialist experiment that has tapped out their citizens money. The oil and mineral producing states from Africa to the Arctic are next to bankrupt.
I'll let you guys retro bolt the runouts before I venture out at this age. Unless Vanguard has supernatural managers I don't see how they'll manage that return.
I don't see the street running red with blood yet.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Jan 13, 2016 - 10:30pm PT
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"The markets are over valued"
There is no Golden Rule that the historic 16/1 PE ratio is a given. It is
now around 18 but that may be the new reality and 15% isn't a bubble.
"China doesn't have the market"
In case you missed it China is rapidly becoming a more mature economy that
is less dependent on export manufacturing. Sure, it will have its hiccups
and all but it isn't on the brink. Yes, there is a real estate bubble there
but that isn't going to affect us that much.
"Europe is a failed socialist experiment"
The fat lady isn't even warming up to that tune yet. Portugal and Spain
have come back nicely. Greece was NBD. Italy is still facing its problems
but Renzi is a smart dude and is trying the right moves. France is OK and
Germany and England are more than OK. The ECB has made some good moves and
I think they will make some more.
" The oil and mineral producing states from Africa to the Arctic are next to bankrupt."
What else is new? Like that affects us? It will in the long run in that
their problems just make it easier for the Chinese to continue taking over
Africa as their commodity franchise.
" Unless Vanguard has supernatural managers I don't see how they'll manage that return."
They don't and they don't claim to which is why they make money the old
fashioned way - conservatively.
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Jeremy B.
climber
Northern California
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Jan 14, 2016 - 11:49am PT
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"There is something very wrong with the idea of betting against the stock market, don't you think?
Anti-investment?"
Only in the sense that reining in Joe McCarthy might have been viewed as un-American, or asking someone not to climb at Red Rock in the rain could be viewed as anti-climbing. In simple terms, price should reflect value, and whether you buy or sell should reflect a reasoned opinion about the relationship between the two. Don't confuse individual equity prices, or even those of the indexes, for the health of the markets themselves.
The purpose of the market is to enable efficient allocation of capital. When people forget that and fixate on the price levels, that no longer happens. Short-selling helps reduce that, and in the worst cases helps to lessen the damage. The people doing it may not be popular, but it's the same sort of unpopularity as a bartender might see when deciding someone's had quite enough to drink for the night. A market where prices get sufficiently divorced from reality is eventually going to leave a lot of people penniless.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Jan 15, 2016 - 07:23am PT
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Where is the bottom of this correction. Who here is the true seer.
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Dapper Dan
Trad climber
Redwood City
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Topic Author's Reply - Jan 15, 2016 - 08:01am PT
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Looks like we're headed to 15,000 territory today ....
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blahblah
Gym climber
Boulder
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Jan 15, 2016 - 08:40am PT
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Where is the bottom of this correction. Who here is the true seer.
We can all take a guess and then pretend that the person who happened to guess closest is the "true seer"--that's how the game is played I think.
I'll guess DJIA down to 15,500.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Jan 15, 2016 - 09:38am PT
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Is that your estimate of today's bottom Blah? In the future, say beyond u.s. market reopenings on tuesday, where will the support level come to rest? I want to buy in. Into conservatively run income producing funds, but I don't want to throw away capital dollars seeking dividend dimes.
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blahblah
Gym climber
Boulder
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Jan 15, 2016 - 10:03am PT
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Not that's my guess as to the bottom of this correction, i.e., I don't think it will go much lower.
But I'm probably very wrong!
I want to buy in. Into conservatively run income producing funds, but I don't want to throw away capital dollars seeking dividend dimes.
I'm not sure what you want is as easy to accomplish as you may think. Whenever you buy into equities, there's at least a reasonable chance the market will go down, and you're in some sense "throwing away" your capital. But on the other hand, remember you haven't really lost it until you sell, and if you're in it for the long term, a respectable view is that either markets will rise in the long term, or if they don't, we'll all have bigger problems than the markets.
You're really just trying to juice your returns with some market timing--probably nothing wrong with that, but whether you succeed is pretty much just gambling.
If I were looking to get into high-dividend equities, I'd probably look at this one:
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0923&FundIntExt=INT
ETF's seem marginally better than mutual funds (not a big difference, but why not get an ETF?) and super low cost (.1%) as it's an index. But it's not low risk.
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John Duffield
Mountain climber
New York
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Jan 15, 2016 - 10:07am PT
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I'm guessing none of you, have ever been inside the NYSE. Except as tourists.
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Dapper Dan
Trad climber
Redwood City
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Topic Author's Reply - Mar 17, 2016 - 03:37pm PT
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Unbelievable , DOW has regained the 2,000 points it lost in 2016 , we're now in positive territory for the year...
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blahblah
Gym climber
Boulder
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Mar 17, 2016 - 03:53pm PT
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Look at my last 2 posts--I predicted the bottom of the latest correction with almost uncanny accuracy. (I didn't predict the speed of the rebound, but no one asked!)
And no, I've never been to the NYSE, not even as a tourist (and if/when I'm in NY, I hope I have better things to do with my time).
The only real big money investment guy I've known (other than old timers who were in it a long time ago) was a climber friend-of-a-friend who lived in NY--he was firmly of the belief that the "end was nigh" after the 2008 meltdown, and the only reasonable thing to do was liquidate whatever assets you could (and then do what, I don't know).
I shudder to think how much money the guy's clients lost (but who knows, his advice may have been sound with the information he had, just the world took a U-turn for whatever reason).
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Mar 17, 2016 - 03:58pm PT
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Not unbelievable given the strength of the US economy, the fairly commendable
way the Chinese are dealing with their contraction, and somewhat hopeful
signs in the European markets. Questions still linger about the Chinese
real estate bubble, Greek banks, Brasil's deepening recession, and the
stagflation in Europe. Amazingly just today France reported a modest but
hopeful decline in unemployment. Didn't really see that coming. The Euro,
of course, has clawed back a nickel from the dollar just in time for my
reprise of the Griswold's vacation. That really doesn't help their battle
against stagflation and if I were a little more daring I would short the
Euro again as I really think Draghi has to get more aggressive.
As to the above question about ETF's vs mutual funds here is a good read
on what to be aware of:
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/exchangetradedfunds/11/worst-etf-misconceptions.asp
If yer in it for the long haul there isn't any advantage to ETF's and there
are some definite disadvantages.
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Dapper Dan
Trad climber
Redwood City
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Topic Author's Reply - Mar 17, 2016 - 04:25pm PT
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Not sure if I took advantage but I kept my usual buying regime in place , just bought more and at lower values ..
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Fritz
Trad climber
Choss Creek, ID
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Mar 17, 2016 - 05:03pm PT
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I'll drink to the market being back to start of year levels, although the S & P 500, which is the index I pay the most attention to, is still a few points short of crawling out of the 2016 hole.
I haven't been "too-skeered" and didn't sell, but I also didn't buy.
Here's a Yahoo YTD S & P 500 Index chart, with volume shown in the bar chart at the bottom.
and here's a Yahoo 10 year S & P 500 Index chart, with volume shown in the bar chart at the bottom and a link to the chart, if you want to play with the interactive parts of it. (Who here doesn't like interactive parts?)
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPC#{"range":"10y","allowChartStacking":true}
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Mar 17, 2016 - 05:19pm PT
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Fritzi, you'll drink to yer kat climbing a tree. :-)
I've been buying all along although I will admit to being 'concerned' for
a while there. I really think the Chinese will muddle along. Just the other
day they lowered their banks' reserve funds in order to free up more money
for loans. As long as this money goes to deserving private sector companies,
and not state-owned firms that should be shuttered, then they've done a gud
thang. The Euros just poured more money into Greek banks so they seem
determined to keep that up which is good for my Euro bonds but not so good
for the overall situation there. That said the next move is up to Draghi
and it will be verrry interesting as he is about out of ammo. The negative
interest rates hand is played out and is about to be called. Will he fold
or see and raise, or lower in actuality. I doubt it. The immigrants are
a vast sucking sound like a pneumothorax and money that might have gone to
the Euro economy is now going into that wound. They're pretty messed up
over there but they do seem to muddle along, too. Right now I feel like
moving my Euro equities into bonds.
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Fritz
Trad climber
Choss Creek, ID
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Mar 17, 2016 - 05:42pm PT
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Reilly! Speaking of toasting my cat Harley. I have discovered a close correlation between his tree-climbing and the stock market. If he scoots up a tree, the market will be up, and the higher he climbs the more the market will be up.
Why shouldn't I drink to that?
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Dapper Dan
Trad climber
Redwood City
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Topic Author's Reply - Mar 17, 2016 - 06:01pm PT
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that's just good science ^^^
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Mar 17, 2016 - 06:51pm PT
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Blahblah was spot on. Wish I had enough faith to have bought in heavily at his called bottom.
Oh well. Just wait, it will go even lower at some point within the year.
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Dapper Dan
Trad climber
Redwood City
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Topic Author's Reply - Jun 24, 2016 - 05:43pm PT
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How ya'll doing out there today ? My little portfolio took a tough right hook today , no big deal . What are Supertopo investors doing today ?
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Dapper Dan
Trad climber
Redwood City
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Topic Author's Reply - Jun 24, 2016 - 05:48pm PT
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BTC ? Bitcoin ???
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ms55401
Trad climber
minneapolis, mn
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Jun 24, 2016 - 06:42pm PT
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The more it goes down, the more I buy. Loves me some Brexit. Of course, if your horizon is three, five, seven years, well, probably not a great day for you.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Jun 25, 2016 - 11:47am PT
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While I wouldn't be buying Euro stocks right now I will be buying USA, baby!
I think that if your timeline is only 2-3 years you don't have much to worry
about. I'd be quite surprised if US markets aren't back to where they were
Thursday within 3 months.
And even if this does lead to the breakup of the EU that will take years
and in the long run, unless the EU commissars come up with a new way to
thwart progress, it will turn out for the better because that's what people
do - they figure out ways to make sh!t work. That's what's wrong with the
EU - they hate that word 'work'.
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jstan
climber
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Jun 25, 2016 - 11:54am PT
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Fritz: TFPU
Schwab's advice, like that of Bill Gross, and Warren Buffet, has always been worth reading. I think we are observing the spread of a special form of ignorance across populations. A widening belief that present actions do not lead to future consequences. Our actions causing destabilization in the middle east are a case in point. Brexit is another. Most immediately Schwab has not programmed in the possibility of Trump being elected. We seem to be going from one absurd decision to the next.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Jun 25, 2016 - 12:00pm PT
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jstan, how do you program for sentiment and herd behavior? Besides, there
will always be unforeseen consequences. Ultimately it's a crap shoot which
is why we diversify, right?
ps
I recently studied the ECB's Smets-Wouters DSGE model and when I came to
their shock algorithms I found them rather arbitrary and unrealistic.
Who ya gonna call, the Ghostbusters?
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jstan
climber
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Jun 25, 2016 - 01:05pm PT
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R:
If you studied Smets and Wouters you are pretty tough. I got only so far as to see they assume every family has savings. Not here.
I have been retired 13 years now. At the start I decided:
!. To control my greed
2. To invest where I had previous experience.
3. That I did not need more money.
Since then I have weathered a near collapse of the US's financial system and my net worth is 50% above what I had when I retired. And oh yes, I didn't lose one night's sleep.
My parents' two lessons set me up for this.
1: Father: "Work your ass off boy." (Yes, he followed the rule of not speaking twice in the same day.)
2. Mother: "Do this and you will never fail to double your money. When you have your money out to buy something, double it over and put it back in your wallet." ( She was a chatterbox by comparison.)
If Trump is elected I have to consider selling every security I presently have and get together a half million so I can buy Canadian citizenship and move to Alberta. Any other response will not be adequate for the dangers we face. Once there I have to get my lungs back in shape so I can join a pipe band again.
Eh?
You had good parents.
Actually the whole family was in a league above my own. In the hotel on a trip to see my older brother in Florida my younger brother's new wife walked into the room like a drill instructor telling us exactly what we had to do that day. Without looking up from his newspaper Kent said, "Barbara, you do know don't you, you are much nicer when you are asleep."
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Jun 25, 2016 - 01:36pm PT
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Well, John, I grew up studying Cubs box scores so Smets-Wouters was
enjoyable by comparison. <rim shot?>
You had good parents.
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slabbo
Trad climber
colo south
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Jun 25, 2016 - 02:23pm PT
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JStan---sounds like you might have read some John Bogle as well....me too
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jstan
climber
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Jun 25, 2016 - 03:39pm PT
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Roth IRA instead of 401k???
Bad idea, unless you expect to be in a higher tax bracket during your retirement.
The right decision depends upon what you expect in future. But let's look just at the present. What are you doing holding an IRA?
1. You are delaying paying a tax so you can get investment returns on what is government money. What are the returns since 2008? Piss poor. And by the way once you are over 70.5 you will not have low taxation. Oh no,no,NO. Convert to Roth, as best you may, before you are 70.5.
2. Once you are over 70.5 your ability to have variety in the available funds is drained away. Suppose we have an emergency and tax rates on you go UP. Keep that other paddle available in your lifeboat. If you are in the upper 1%, only then can you be assured your tax rates will not go up. Capech?
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John Duffield
Mountain climber
New York
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Jun 25, 2016 - 04:47pm PT
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No Balls, No Blue Chips. Buy on the dip, yada yada...
Sovereign UK Bonds or gtfo
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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May 22, 2017 - 11:00am PT
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That's a nice spread on those Brit bonds. Purely explained by 'irrational pessimism'. ;-)
HFCS, read this week's article on bitcoins and its
500 surrogates in The Economist.
It ain't a matter of if that bubble will burst.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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May 22, 2017 - 11:05am PT
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Yer right, and I stand by it. It's still a fundamentally challenged market ill served by a yuge lack of liquidity and transparency, to name a couple of issues.
Did you buy $5 worth then? :-)
Dutch tulip futures paid handsomely for the early investors, too.
FWIW, I don't like being 50% equities right now, either, but a guy's gotta do whatta guy's gotta do!
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SteveW
Trad climber
The state of confusion
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May 22, 2017 - 02:51pm PT
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Buy high, sell low.
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briham89
Big Wall climber
santa cruz, ca
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May 22, 2017 - 02:53pm PT
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The real question is when is the next major correction / recession happening?
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Jon Beck
Trad climber
Oceanside
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May 22, 2017 - 03:07pm PT
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Bitcoin is up because companies are stockpiling to pay off ransomware demands
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