U.S. Stock market "CORRECTION!!" Why am I not "too-skeered"

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SomebodyAnybody

Big Wall climber
Torrance
Jun 29, 2018 - 07:41pm PT
Yield curve inversion is the obvious, and most reliable recession predictor you're going to find. This is bookmarked on my browser, and has been since 2004:

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/yieldcurve.php

Left side is the yield curve, right side is SP500. You can drag the red line in the right side back and forth to show yield curve at any point over that SP500 history/chart going back to beginning of 1999.

Back in January of this year, I wrote in this thread:

We have about a year, to a year and half, left to run.

Various valuation metrics people throw out like PE ratio don't mean sh#t in the short to medium term. Old words of wisdom: "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

Watch the yield curve as the Fed bumps rates this year, when the curve goes inverted is about when you want to be out, typically formal recession kicks in within 6-12mo of inversion with markets retreating about 6mo prior to recession.

I did not anticipate Cadet Bonespurs's incredible stupidity vis-a-vis trade policy, tariffs, etc. Personally I will cut exposure to equities between late July and late Aug of this year until late Oct at a minimum and possibly for a year or more if recession potential continues to grow.
moosedrool

climber
Andrzej Citkowicz far away from Poland
Jul 9, 2018 - 01:58pm PT
My daughter, Little Moosie, is not skeerd!

Credit: moosedrool

Moose
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Jul 9, 2018 - 03:21pm PT
Bought some silver when it dropped below $16.

My transport, drugs, financial, energy and construction plays keep the dividends pouring in.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 11, 2018 - 11:40pm PT
VERY interesting article on Reuters today about the Fedís efforts to re-interpret, if you will, the old metrics on inflation and recession. New analysis indicated the most ballyhooed, the inverted yield curve, may not be as accurate as formerly believed. WOOT!

Goodbye inverted yield curve? Fed looks for alternative signals to guide policy

^^^^ Thatís the title of the article which I read on the app. If any of you crankloons are interested in anything meaningful, I mean as opposed to Lockerís whereabouts, you can do yer own research.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jul 12, 2018 - 05:19am PT
Reminds me of all the "new economy" talk during the dotcom bubble. Parameters may change. But not the basic principles. Bull markets always end. And the signs are always there.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 12, 2018 - 07:26am PT
Edward, read the article before shooting yer mouth off. Signs can be read in varying ways.
One manís sign to hell/ recession in the past doesnít necessarily lead there now.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jul 12, 2018 - 08:32am PT
Edward, read the article before shooting yer mouth off.

Sorry about that. Didn't mean to ruffle your feathers.

I read the article. My opinion is the same.

Every time there's a recession, the experts give us a bunch of "who could've foreseen this?" or insightful after the fact analysis.

I have no idea when the markets are going to sell off in earnest, but when they do, I expect it'll be a doozy.
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Jul 12, 2018 - 09:45am PT
When gold dropped to $1242 this morning I bought some buffalos. Its already back up.

I'm looking for weak financials. Vultures gotta eat too.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jul 12, 2018 - 12:32pm PT
Norton

climber
The Wastelands

Jun 26, 2018 - 04:40pm PT
tremendous profits are being made on the short side of the equities markets

short interest, new short positions, is up sharply at the swing high

the pros are short, they know when and how to protect their profits, and right now they are staying short looking for lower prices

verification of the strong short professional interest can be, well you all know how to find it

Good call, Norton.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 12, 2018 - 12:48pm PT
How are ďtremendous profitsĒ being made by the shorts in a market thatís still rising?
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jul 12, 2018 - 01:26pm PT
When gold dropped to $1242 this morning I bought some buffalos. Its already back up.

Toker - Do you use futures contracts for your precious metals investments?

Entry/exit is easy and fast.

Sixty percent of gains are taxed at long term rates.

The downside - Ease of entry and low margins can lead to unwise "investing".
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Jul 12, 2018 - 02:51pm PT
I like my commodities in hand.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 12, 2018 - 10:41pm PT
^^^^ Hmmm, that rings a bell. Oh, now I remember - the Hunt Brothers said that on Silver Thursday! That was a fun week for us silver traders! Kinda like a mass free soloing of the Bachar-Yerian. Interesting that silver is the same price today, not corrected for inflation, it was then, huh?
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Aug 3, 2018 - 11:45am PT
Who was it who poo pooed my Apple buy?
Mungeclimber

Trad climber
Nothing creative to say
Aug 3, 2018 - 04:46pm PT
Looks like Exxon is in the clear with the SEC. Watch that go up if demand for oil stays high.



Musk's rebound is nothing short of dizzying. All he had to do was apologize and the stock jumped. oh, no, its not a rigged game by market bullies leading the ups and downs and taking the skim off the top. Liquidity, eh?
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Aug 3, 2018 - 05:03pm PT
Musk is hardly outta da woods. One word: debt. Model 3 sales unlikely to generate enough cash flow to staunch the cash hemorrhage. Canít issue new debt cause nobody will buy it. New stock issuance also not an option as it would dilute existing.
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Aug 4, 2018 - 11:33am PT
I'm a fan of Musk. He is a visionary.

He still needs to learn some business protocol. No matter how boneheaded the question be polite. (Doesn't mean he can't throw in a witty jibe though.)

Trouble is; the human race may have already reached a tipping point from which we can't recover and electric cars won't save us.
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Aug 13, 2018 - 01:40pm PT
Think I'm gonna sell 500 shares of Apple when it hits $210 (but then buy them back if it drops to $190).

Take the $25K+ and increase one of my health care plays.

(did the Musk thing kill this thread?)
Brian in SLC

Social climber
Salt Lake City, UT
Aug 13, 2018 - 02:46pm PT
Musk taking Tesla private at $420 would be interesting. Is that rumor propping up the stock price?

I don't understand much of this stuff...what's whacky to me, is, how can Turkey tank the dow? Well, not tank it, but, its been down a bit.

Spot price of gold under 1200...hmmm....
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Aug 13, 2018 - 04:05pm PT
Brian, greed is all that is propping up TSLA price.

Turkey is a more substantial worry. Look what puny Greece did - Turkeyís GDP is over 4 times bigger than Greeceís!
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