U.S. Stock market "CORRECTION!!" Why am I not "too-skeered"

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Flip Flop

climber
Earth Planet, Universe
Jun 29, 2018 - 01:28pm PT
Buying low isn't exactly Bull. More like vulture
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Jun 29, 2018 - 03:02pm PT
I'm getting a little more-skeered, when a conservative financial newspaper sounds both anti-Trump & skeered.

From Investor's Business Daily.

Recession fears are flaring as Trump's trade war has markets behaving in a way not seen since the financial crisis

If you want evidence of how President Donald Trump's trade war is affecting investor nerves, look no further than the widespread damage inflicted upon US stocks in recent days.

Beyond that, if you're looking for a hint as to what the future holds, an even more ominous signal is forming in the Treasury market.

The metric in question is the spread between two- and 10-year Treasury yields, which has fallen to its lowest level since 2007 ó the period immediately preceding the most recent financial crisis.
More bad-news here: http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/recession-fears-are-flaring-as-trumps-trade-war-has-markets-behaving-in-a-way-not-seen-since-the-financial-crisis/ar-AAzbvju?li=BBnb7Kz



& the article ends with this:

It's all part of a massive puzzle investors and experts are trying to piece together. At this point, only one thing is for sure: The cries for a recession are getting louder, and risk-off behavior is getting more pronounced.

What happens next is anyone's guess.
blahblah

Gym climber
Boulder
Jun 29, 2018 - 03:48pm PT
Sounds bad Fritz: better SELL SELL SELL!
ms55401

Trad climber
minneapolis, mn
Jun 29, 2018 - 03:56pm PT
three words: yield curve inversion.
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Jun 29, 2018 - 04:03pm PT
blahblah! Per your hysteria:

quote]Sounds bad Fritz: better SELL SELL SELL![/quote]

Per most all my posts on this thread, I'm a cautious Buy & mostly hold, kind of fellow. Right now, I'm not buying.
SomebodyAnybody

Big Wall climber
Torrance
Jun 29, 2018 - 07:41pm PT
Yield curve inversion is the obvious, and most reliable recession predictor you're going to find. This is bookmarked on my browser, and has been since 2004:

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/yieldcurve.php

Left side is the yield curve, right side is SP500. You can drag the red line in the right side back and forth to show yield curve at any point over that SP500 history/chart going back to beginning of 1999.

Back in January of this year, I wrote in this thread:

We have about a year, to a year and half, left to run.

Various valuation metrics people throw out like PE ratio don't mean sh#t in the short to medium term. Old words of wisdom: "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

Watch the yield curve as the Fed bumps rates this year, when the curve goes inverted is about when you want to be out, typically formal recession kicks in within 6-12mo of inversion with markets retreating about 6mo prior to recession.

I did not anticipate Cadet Bonespurs's incredible stupidity vis-a-vis trade policy, tariffs, etc. Personally I will cut exposure to equities between late July and late Aug of this year until late Oct at a minimum and possibly for a year or more if recession potential continues to grow.
moosedrool

climber
Andrzej Citkowicz far away from Poland
Jul 9, 2018 - 01:58pm PT
My daughter, Little Moosie, is not skeerd!

Credit: moosedrool

Moose
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Jul 9, 2018 - 03:21pm PT
Bought some silver when it dropped below $16.

My transport, drugs, financial, energy and construction plays keep the dividends pouring in.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 11, 2018 - 11:40pm PT
VERY interesting article on Reuters today about the Fedís efforts to re-interpret, if you will, the old metrics on inflation and recession. New analysis indicated the most ballyhooed, the inverted yield curve, may not be as accurate as formerly believed. WOOT!

Goodbye inverted yield curve? Fed looks for alternative signals to guide policy

^^^^ Thatís the title of the article which I read on the app. If any of you crankloons are interested in anything meaningful, I mean as opposed to Lockerís whereabouts, you can do yer own research.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jul 12, 2018 - 05:19am PT
Reminds me of all the "new economy" talk during the dotcom bubble. Parameters may change. But not the basic principles. Bull markets always end. And the signs are always there.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 12, 2018 - 07:26am PT
Edward, read the article before shooting yer mouth off. Signs can be read in varying ways.
One manís sign to hell/ recession in the past doesnít necessarily lead there now.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jul 12, 2018 - 08:32am PT
Edward, read the article before shooting yer mouth off.

Sorry about that. Didn't mean to ruffle your feathers.

I read the article. My opinion is the same.

Every time there's a recession, the experts give us a bunch of "who could've foreseen this?" or insightful after the fact analysis.

I have no idea when the markets are going to sell off in earnest, but when they do, I expect it'll be a doozy.
xCon

Social climber
909
Jul 12, 2018 - 08:36am PT
seeking alternatives?

this from the same crew who couldn't imagine a need to regulate "sophisticated actors" in the financial market...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-neutral-analysis/goodbye-inverted-yield-curve-fed-looks-for-alternative-signals-to-guide-policy-idUSKBN1K20DD?il=0
Credit: xCon
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Jul 12, 2018 - 09:45am PT
When gold dropped to $1242 this morning I bought some buffalos. Its already back up.

I'm looking for weak financials. Vultures gotta eat too.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jul 12, 2018 - 12:32pm PT
Norton

climber
The Wastelands

Jun 26, 2018 - 04:40pm PT
tremendous profits are being made on the short side of the equities markets

short interest, new short positions, is up sharply at the swing high

the pros are short, they know when and how to protect their profits, and right now they are staying short looking for lower prices

verification of the strong short professional interest can be, well you all know how to find it

Good call, Norton.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 12, 2018 - 12:48pm PT
How are ďtremendous profitsĒ being made by the shorts in a market thatís still rising?
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jul 12, 2018 - 01:26pm PT
When gold dropped to $1242 this morning I bought some buffalos. Its already back up.

Toker - Do you use futures contracts for your precious metals investments?

Entry/exit is easy and fast.

Sixty percent of gains are taxed at long term rates.

The downside - Ease of entry and low margins can lead to unwise "investing".
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Jul 12, 2018 - 02:51pm PT
I like my commodities in hand.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 12, 2018 - 10:41pm PT
^^^^ Hmmm, that rings a bell. Oh, now I remember - the Hunt Brothers said that on Silver Thursday! That was a fun week for us silver traders! Kinda like a mass free soloing of the Bachar-Yerian. Interesting that silver is the same price today, not corrected for inflation, it was then, huh?
xCon

Social climber
909
Jul 13, 2018 - 06:58am PT
Securities and Exchange Commission Guts Its Whistleblower Program

https://truthout.org/articles/securities-and-exchange-commission-knifes-its-whistleblower-program/
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