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jeg
Social climber
center valley,Pa
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Aug 28, 2013 - 09:03pm PT
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High Traverse...
The day amphitheater gully was searched another climber scrambled to the top of adams from the adams michael saddle. Did not find Matt's name in register.
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SalNichols
Big Wall climber
Richmond, CA
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Aug 28, 2013 - 09:11pm PT
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There is a way to narrow the search volume that uses what little evidence we have and weights it based upon Matt's historical behavior.
For example, right now everyone, and I mean everyone is considering EVERY small piece of evidence to be equal in value. What this causes is a search in every direction. It's bloody pointless. Matt didn't go EVERYWHERE.
What I'm proposing to the family is that we develop a target list of search areas (i.e. climbs and or hikes) that Matt would be MOST LIKELY to attempt, based upon what he has attempted in the past, how he attempted them, and whether or not he moderated the difficulty of his ascents based upon whether or not he had a partner.
Basically, this is a probability matrix based upon WHAT WE KNOW. In particular, it requires everyone to be really honest about Matthew and how he "did things". What do I mean? Matthew is a mathematician. I don't know a single one of them, and I've had theoretical mathematicians working for me for 30 years, that thrived on chaos. If you were to tell me that his apartment, minimalist as it was, was VERY NEAT and ORDERLY, it would not only not shock me, it helps us develop a behavioral profile of him. I read every word of the blog that was linked to his FB search page. IMHO, this was a man that measured personal risk carefully. He was fit, had great endurance, and likely had skills in 2013 that exceeded those that he described in his blog...yet he wasn't a risk taker.
So, what am I saying? Based upon the descriptions of the terrain that Dean has searched, IMHO we've been looking in the wrong places. Dean's mountaineering skills likely exceeded Matt's, and there were places Dean wouldn't go. Nowhere in Matt's writings did he ever put himself in a situation where he faced a death fall. This was no dumbassed tourist. This is a very bright man who performed risk analysis on his efforts.
The key to this, and Matt would like it probably, is his own past behavior. We don't have much to go on beyond what he did in the past. Based upon his blog, if he was alone he most likely didn't set out for anything 4th class or above. While he had marathon legs, he wasn't doing a marathon day. Unless someone in his family were to tell me that he'd blow off picking up his car when it was ready, he fully intended this being a day trip. Mathematicians need order, hell, their entire purpose for being is to create order. Whatever he did, it wouldn't deviate from this basic behavioral trait.
Sometime yesterday, I asked if anyone was building a matrix/spreadsheet of the climbs available to Matt in the missing 30 pages of the Secor guide. I don't want to step on anyone's toes here, but I have a basic structure for how to build the evidence matrix in mind. If you'd like, I'll take it on. I can build the basic structure, but it will require his family and climbing partners to make it worthwhile. We don't need to be looking everywhere, we need to be looking where Matt would be most likely to go.
Re: aerial imagery. At this point we need resolution of less than 1m2 to find him. God bless Tom Cochrane, but he's just not going to get there with his RED camera. I can't get there with a Predator lacking a heat signature, and I can't do it with overhead sources. It's not worth the risk to Tom and Chelsea to be flying another mission unless they can deliver that kind of resolution in a greatly reduced search volume.
Gang, I can tell you EXACTLY how hard it is to find something as large as a SCUD missile launcher. Finding Matt is orders of magnitude more difficult.
If you want me to help, PM me. Otherwise, I'll butt out.
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tdg119
Social climber
Northampton, PA
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Aug 28, 2013 - 09:13pm PT
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My dream was Matt holding a long crystal, almost clear whitish blue, about 2.5 feet long. it was less about a diamond, but had A Gem like quality, like a big solid icicle. He was standing up, no hat or helmet, he looked good, like he was not injured or anything, just standing there. Like he was trying to hand me the crystal but was too far away and just could not reach me. Then i woke up, it was intense, it woke me up with a sense of panic. I quickly went back to sleep. No backpack, that I remember, a tee shirt on, with bare arms.
I have never been to or even heard of mammoth lakes before this. The next day I just put the 3 things into google ( crystal, gem and Mammoth lakes). I was surprised to see so many places pop up, gem lake, crystal mountain, crystal lake, etc.. My immediate reaction was this is it, it's crystal lake, but everyone said there is no snow there, it's well traveled, etc. and it just did not fit the facts. So I dismissed it.
When I first saw the glasses, I did not really feel this was what I dreamed or that it was related. but I was surprised by the similarities and hard time dismissing it. I did get excited that we had a strong potential lead. I was the first person to call Alex when he found them, and I said "dude, I have to ask, did you plant these?" The similarities seemed too perfect. he said no way man I'm not like that, and I believe him.
Last week I had another weird dream, it was like I was half awake, half asleep. I felt possessed, I was on my back but could not move my arms or legs. I remember saying "tiff","tiff".
Also last week, I went to Matt's house to go through all his stuff, nothing seemed unusual. Except I found a bag of arrow heads (like old Indian ones) they seemed to pull on me. A few days later while looking at the maps I noticed crystal lake was shaped like an arrow head and I thought wow that's weird. I dismissed it as a coincidence, again it did not fit the facts.
First off, I don't believe in this psychic mumbo jumbo. Secondly, I am only reporting this because we really have nothing to go on and we are grasping at straws, so what the hell...
-Ron
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Aug 28, 2013 - 09:15pm PT
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Matt did solo a 5.4 route on Clyde Minaret, so I would include all low 5th class routes as well. It would be nice to make a list of possible routes and start ticking them off.
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10b4me
Ice climber
Wishes-He-Was-In-Arizona
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Aug 28, 2013 - 09:17pm PT
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"Is it possible that all 3 people can separately write down their dreams in fine detail..."
Klimmer, you are truly batshit crazy.
It had to be said.
+1
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SalNichols
Big Wall climber
Richmond, CA
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Aug 28, 2013 - 09:30pm PT
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Re: psychics...if they were actually psychic, they wouldn't need to interview the interested party to "prime the psychic pump". You either know or you don't. You could input tha psychic into a probability matrix, but it would be rated somewhere below hearsay, ("Matt talked about climbing Ritter").
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SalNichols
Big Wall climber
Richmond, CA
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Aug 28, 2013 - 09:36pm PT
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What you think is outlandish, spur of the moment behavior...likely isn't. That being said, you haven't offered anything, and it's no skin off my ass either way. Strap on your pack, pick a random trail and peak and go searching. I offered to help, not to argue.
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Klimmer
Mountain climber
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Aug 28, 2013 - 09:37pm PT
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Ron,
Thank you very much. You have said a great deal.
(I have to wear an armored suit of Teflon and asbestos around here just to survive.)
Sharing the dreams in detail, that is what I hope RM217 can do also. And perhaps the student who had Matt as a teacher.
My fellow teachers/colleagues we went back to school today.
I think about Matt often, though i dont know him. We're both teachers and climbers.
I'm sad for everyone.
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tdg119
Social climber
Northampton, PA
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Aug 28, 2013 - 09:43pm PT
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Everything sal said is spot on about Matt. Remember some of the things in his diary were from 15 ago when he 25. He even mentions at one point "that risks he saw others taking reminded him of when he was 25, young and stupid. He is 39 now, more mature, etc...he is more conservative, experienced, etc...I would love to help you sal but I'm not a climber, I don't know routes, trailhead or that stuff. One of the reasons we are on supertopo is to understand and ask for the climbing communities help. I can tell you about Matt but not about climbing. Let me know what you need. - its a logical well thought approach and makes sense. - Ron
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LAhiker
Social climber
Los Angeles
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Aug 28, 2013 - 09:46pm PT
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@Monolith -- but would Matt have done solo low class 5 climbs without his helmet?
From what people say about him, it doesn't sound that way. Especially now that we hear that his helmet may have been at the campsite after all -- it would have been very easy for him to take it if he had intended to do something where he needed it.
@Ron -- interesting dream and details. Maybe, to keep that stuff together, you could repost it in Tiffany's new "Mammoth topography in regard to visions (FindMattGreene)" thread?
http://www.supertopo.com/climbing/thread.php?topic_id=2213600&tn=0#msg2213630
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SalNichols
Big Wall climber
Richmond, CA
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Aug 28, 2013 - 09:54pm PT
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Ron,
I'll start working on it. Give me a couple of days.
Nick
I'm going to need to pick some local area experts brains. Crag or anyone INTIMATELY familiar with he area that is willing to endure a few phone calls, pls PM me with a number. Phone charges are on me.
Nick
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Aug 28, 2013 - 09:56pm PT
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Good point. I did not consider the helmet. He might if he got an early start and would be on a route that gets little traffic so no one above him. Or, he just might have forgotten his helmet, like a lot of us have.
I guess the most likely possibility is he left the helmet behind on purpose.
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LAhiker
Social climber
Los Angeles
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Aug 28, 2013 - 10:03pm PT
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Monolith -- it's a point that Matt might have forgotten his helmet, though it surprises me that someone would go to the trouble to bring ice axe, crampons, and Sportivas and but would forget their helmet.
If he did intend to bring his helmet and then had forgotten it, I wonder if he would have changed his plan once he realized he didn't have it...
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Aug 28, 2013 - 10:12pm PT
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Ron is old-school, just like me. I didn't start wearing a helmet regularly till about 10 years ago, after they became light and more comfortable.
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crankster
Trad climber
South Lake Tahoe, CA
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Aug 28, 2013 - 10:16pm PT
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If every picture of Matt climbing anything remotely serious shows him climbing with a helmet, then the fact he did not take his helmet IS significant.
Did he take it with him when he went solo? Some climbers only wear them to protect from a partners potential rock fall.
Look for patterns. He was climbing Sierra classics: V-Notch Couloir, Dana Couloir, North Peak Couloir, Clyde Minaret....
Ritter is the biggest peak in the area, a beacon for miles. No evidence he had climbed it previously.
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SalNichols
Big Wall climber
Richmond, CA
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Aug 28, 2013 - 10:18pm PT
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Hell, if someone wants an old school MSR that has been worn exactly one frigging uncomfortable time, let me know and I'll bequeath it to you in my will.
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LAhiker
Social climber
Los Angeles
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Aug 28, 2013 - 10:19pm PT
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Ron Anderson and Monolith,
You guys sound like a bunch of bikers -- "repeal helmet laws"! ;-)
Of course, the question is whether Matt would have taken a helmet if he had intended to do climbs above a certain level. Ron or Tiffany said:
in reading Matts past TR's. Yes, not having a helmet would have limited him.
Perhaps we could double-check this by looking at some of past TRs and by getting the input of people who climbed with him.
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SalNichols
Big Wall climber
Richmond, CA
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Aug 28, 2013 - 10:20pm PT
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Hey, I gave my copy of 50 Classics to Chicken Skinner. Which Minarets Routes were in it?
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crankster
Trad climber
South Lake Tahoe, CA
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Aug 28, 2013 - 10:22pm PT
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SE Face Clyde Minaret, 5.8. That's been ruled out as a climb he would solo. He was using Secor's guidebook, not Roper's.
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