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rockermike
Trad climber
Berkeley
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Topic Author's Original Post - Jun 5, 2018 - 01:15pm PT
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I read it in high school. Somewhat influential in my thinking at the time. I've moved on since..... but here's an interesting discussion. Not necessarily agreeing with Corbett's direction but worth a listen IMHO.
[Click to View YouTube Video]
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Reeotch
climber
4 Corners Area
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Looks like the "bomb" was a dud . . .
Interesting that the was an entomologist, given the way insects reproduce.
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Splater
climber
Grey Matter
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Why would I open a video that proclaims its bias right in the thumbnail?
Which is higher? Birthrates or trollrates?
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dirtbag
climber
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Callin him a pseudoscientist is terribly misleading.
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McHale's Navy
Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
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Combine the world population with its dependence on fossil fuels and well, there is a serious problem. The charlatans are the professional climate change deniers. I'll bet that video is f*#king stupid.
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rockermike
Trad climber
Berkeley
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Topic Author's Reply - Jun 5, 2018 - 07:47pm PT
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I get the distinct impression no one has listened to it. ha ha
His argument... for those who only read the cliff notes.... has two central theses. 1) falling fertility is a bigger problem, and 2) human ingenuity has improved life over the last 50 years while Ehrlich predicted 100s of millions of deaths by the 1980s.
Again I don't agree with his conclusions but Corbett is a smart guy and he does a good job of presenting his argument.
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rottingjohnny
Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
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Fox news reported that Monsanto's Roundup will restore fertility...Will medi-cal cover the prescription costs...?
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Obviously not many read it, or heeded it, other than the Red Chinese.
See what a little self-control can achieve? Of course, we had a heads up 200 odd years ago
from the estimable Thomas Malthus but only eight people read him.
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McHale's Navy
Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
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I get the distinct impression no one has listened to it. ha ha
It doesn't matter because the human population has increased enough that it's sidekick, fossil fuel use, is going to be as serious of a problem as Erlich predicted. I get the impression you think we're in the clear because he wasn't immediately correct. HaHa.
Edit:
OK, so I watched enough to see that it's all fear mongering that we're not having enough babies, and there's plenty of oil folks, so don't worry about that. No mention whatsoever of climate change.
It just ends with visions of pretty babies that somehow the world has not nearly enough of. It's religious drivel, and of course, anti-abortion. Actually, it's right-wing drivel designed to attract religious people. My first simple search of Dr. Erlich came up with a list of right wing websites that are just hating on him. He must be a popular figure in circles that read Breitbart News. God, what horsesh#t. There are plenty of videos on YouTube where you can listen to him talk intelligently and persuasively about what is happening in the world today. Bringing up his old book and pissing on it is just what the fear mongers are doing. It's so funny, the posted movie is exactly the opposite of the Population Bomb. It's fear mongering about human extinction because we are not having enough babies. It's f*#king hilarious.
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clifff
Mountain climber
golden, rollin hills of California
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Population growth math:
1.16 %/year - 10 times in 200 years - 1.0116^200 - in 200 years a population of 7 billion would grow to 70 billion
1.16 %/year - 3.17 times in 100 years
2.345 %/year - 10 times in 100 years - 1 billion times in 900 yrs - Earth's population would be 7 billion billion in 900 yrs
3.05 %/year - 20 times in 100 years
4.72 %/year - 100 times in 100 years
9.65 %/year - 10,000 times in 100 years
10 s of millions die every year of starvation in the world. Billions are malnourished.
3.322 times the doubling rate (in years) = 10 times rate (in years)
A 2% growth rate for 6,500 years would turn all the matter in the universe into human beings. 1.02^6500 = 10^56
0.231 %/year - 10 times in 1000 years
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Flip Flop
climber
Earth Planet, Universe
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Worldwide food security is at an all time low.
The US food chain doesn't warehouse food.
The population no longer has a larder at home.
In the US there is now 3 days of food security in the supply chain. If you can call it food.
This is America and we have Tent Cities and Beggars in every city. Homeless Children.
If Sigatoka keeps wiping out the Cavendish Banana everybody dies. That's it. The worlds largest fruit cultivar and calorie source. Invest in Casava and Bread Fruit before Famine makes the Americas Great Again
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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http://science.sciencemag.org/content/360/6391/eaar6611
Beyond fossil fuel–driven nitrogen transformations
Jingguang G. Chen1,2,*, Richard M. Crooks3,*, Lance C. Seefeldt4,*, Kara L. Bren5, R. Morris Bullock6, Marcetta Y. Darensbourg7, Patrick L. Holland8, Brian Hoffman9, Michael J. Janik10, Anne K. Jones11, Mercouri G. Kanatzidis9, Paul King12, Kyle M. Lancaster13, Sergei V. Lymar2, Peter Pfromm14, William F. Schneider15, Richard R. Schrock16
Abstract
Nitrogen is fundamental to all of life and many industrial processes. The interchange of nitrogen oxidation states in the industrial production of ammonia, nitric acid, and other commodity chemicals is largely powered by fossil fuels. A key goal of contemporary research in the field of nitrogen chemistry is to minimize the use of fossil fuels by developing more efficient heterogeneous, homogeneous, photo-, and electrocatalytic processes or by adapting the enzymatic processes underlying the natural nitrogen cycle. These approaches, as well as the challenges involved, are discussed in this Review.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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The population no longer has a larder at home.
Guess you don’t know any Mormons or Cali Earthquake Preparedness Freaks!
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Flip Flop
climber
Earth Planet, Universe
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Touché. The Mormons will survive
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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Various people have gotten their dire predictions about our future wrong. He is one in a long line of know-nothings. We were also supposed to run out of metals. Of course, we have always found more ingenious ways to find new sources and reclaim and recycle others. We even had a book telling us about the upcoming New Ice Age in the '70s.
There were ancient, learned scholars that predicted the demise of the Roman Empire. For hundreds of years they were wrong. Up until they turned out to be correct.
Agriculture technology has allowed the world to produce enough calories to feed everybody. Even if human mischief has still lead to famines.
Technology has come through in areas like mining also. But past performance is no guarantee of future results.
My response to those thinking technology will provide a miracle cure for climate change is a big maybe.
The analogy I use is a 20 year-old who smokes 3 packs a day and says future technology will grow him brand new lungs and a heart when he starts having problems breathing in middle age. Maybe. Do you really want to bet your life on it?
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rockermike
Trad climber
Berkeley
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Topic Author's Reply - Jun 6, 2018 - 11:04am PT
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Reeotch.... that's quite a video. Loved the dynamic time series stuff...
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chainsaw
Trad climber
CA
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I once took an economics class on population (Malthusian growth) that critiqued the Society of Rome's "Limits to Growth." The class was taught by renowned economist Eric Gustafson. The bottom line as we learned was that as societies evolve under market pressures, fertility reaches replacement. That means zero population growth. The biggest problems are apparently subsidies that encourage population growth among demographics that do not support themselves.
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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The class was taught by renowned economist Eric Gustafson. The bottom line as we learned was that as societies evolve under market pressures, fertility reaches replacement.
experts making statements based on their interpretation of history without any real basis for their argument why the future will turn out ok... not very convincing.
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EdBannister
Mountain climber
13,000 feet
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oh look, my reply was deleted.. too many facts???
furthers the case for no accountability for bad "science"
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