Are Mt. Rainier's Glaciers Growing?

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Winemaker

Sport climber

Yakima, WA

Topic Author's Original Post - Mar 10, 2016 - 09:34am PT

We've had a very wet winter here in the Northwest and the snow level has been hovering in the 3500 to 5000 foot range, so we've gotten a lot of snow on Rainier and Adams. I can see both from my office window and they look pretty good.

Glaciers have been receding on the mountains for years. I have some scary pictures of glacial retreat on Rainier; there used to be ice caves above Paradise. Average temperatures have been rising and snowfall, especially last year, has been sparse. It's good to have a heavy snow year.

My question is can glaciers start growing in these condition; heavy winter high altitude snow but generally warmer weather? Is there hope or will we eventually just have rock piles?

bluering

Trad climber

Santa Clara, CA

Mar 10, 2016 - 09:49am PT

Over a long period of time maybe, like hundreds of years.

Will the glaciers ever return to Yosemite Valley? Not in our lifetime. First the climate needs to invert like it did a long time ago (before fossil fuels were burned in cars). An Ice Age of sorts. Maybe even a Little Ice Age.

Maybe we've turned a climate corner, and are on our way (in a couple/few hundred years) to another cold period. If history is any indicator...

$.02

fear

Ice climber

hartford, ct

Mar 10, 2016 - 10:08am PT

I rememember vividly how totally melted out Success Cleaver was one late June. Just dirty rotten rock and sand all the way up.

In less than two decades of visits I've seen 'em shrink quite a bit.

What'll it look like in 20 centuries? Anyone can guess but we really don't know.

Hardly Visible

Social climber

Llatikcuf WA

Mar 10, 2016 - 10:25am PT

Winemaker,
You might find this of interest:

http://glaciers.research.pdx.edu/photos

donini

Trad climber

Ouray, Colorado

Mar 10, 2016 - 10:26am PT

Glaciers can recede then grow over short time frames.

Winemaker

Sport climber

Yakima, WA

Topic Author's Reply - Mar 10, 2016 - 10:42am PT

Thanks Hardly, interesting. Crater Glacier on (in, actually) Mount St. Helens is growing!

Reilly

Mountain climber

The Other Monrovia- CA

Mar 10, 2016 - 12:09pm PT

I hadn't been up to Paradise for years until about 6 years ago.
I was shocked at the changes. Nice, though, that the rangers
don't try to break yer ice axe any more. Pretty sure one good
winter won't make much difference.

clode

Trad climber

portland, or

Mar 10, 2016 - 12:23pm PT

Rainier and Adams? Are you kidding? They already ARE rock piles! But, reality aside, if the rate of accumulation exceeds the rate of ablation (melting), in any given year, then yes, the glaciers WILL advance and/or grow, at least in that year.

stunewberry

Trad climber

Spokane, WA

Mar 10, 2016 - 12:38pm PT

A glacier has formed in the crater of Mt St Helens since the 1980 eruption.

http://gallery.usgs.gov/videos/593 for a time lapse video.

couchmaster

climber

Mar 10, 2016 - 12:43pm PT

A heavy snowstorm or 2 doesn't mean that glacier retreat has ceased. They can start growing in these conditions but they are not is the answer I believe. Not until we get multiple years of it. The glaciers on all PNW shield volcanos appear to be shrinking. I was, however, happy that I didn't buy a season pass last year, but did this year. Great year for snow. By the way, global cooling is predicted for the future, in our lifetimes. Frankly, with population growth, I'd rather see global warming, as you know, ag output/food production will take a hit if it cools down.

Winemaker quote:

"We've had a very wet winter here in the Northwest and the snow level has been hovering in the 3500 to 5000 foot range, so we've gotten a lot of snow on Rainier and Adams. I can see both from my office window and they look pretty good.

Glaciers have been receding on the mountains for years. I have some scary pictures of glacial retreat on Rainier; there used to be ice caves above Paradise. Average temperatures have been rising and snowfall, especially last year, has been sparse. It's good to have a heavy snow year.

My question is can glaciers start growing in these condition; heavy winter high altitude snow but generally warmer weather? Is there hope or will we eventually just have rock piles?"

Spiny Norman

Social climber

Boring, Oregon

Mar 10, 2016 - 02:30pm PT

By the way, global cooling is predicted for the future, in our lifetimes.

That is an interesting claim. So interesting, that I think it requires some documentation.

monolith

climber

state of being

Mar 10, 2016 - 03:15pm PT

Oddball predictions are a dime a dozen.

Usually from some aging professor emeritus and often not in the same field as the prediction applies too.

Mandobob

Trad climber

Mar 10, 2016 - 03:22pm PT

Yes, some support to future cooling. First I must warn that "predictions are always difficult, especially about the the future" :)

No one knows if the future (next few 100 yrs) is warmer, the same as today, or cooler. It is true that when past glacial/interglacial periods are studied there is some regularity with the interglacial periods lasting around 10,000 yrs. (10,000 to 15,000 yrs is the most common range listed). Our current interglacial has lasted for around 10,000 yrs so there is some speculation that we should eventually enter a long-term cooling period signaling the end of the interglacial. Unfortunately natural systems do not follow any regularity and previous interglacials show evidence of fits of cooling and warming so stating unequivocally that we should be cool soon, as if we are following a timetable, is a bit of a reach.

So bottom line, yes glacial conditions will return but no one knows exactly when. Stay tuned!

Wikipedia has a reasonably good post on this.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quaternary_glaciation

Contractor

Boulder climber

Mar 10, 2016 - 03:40pm PT

NASA satalite observations: The rate of sea ice loss in the arctic has outpaced the most pessimistic projections.

The consequent race to claim mineral, oil and gas rights in the arctic, where there was permanent ice 30 years ago, by global producers, while denying the occurrence of global warming is a fuking joke.

Yes, there are scant, random examples of ice growth here and there- and terminally ill, cancer patients have random days of feeling better.

eeyonkee

Trad climber

Golden, CO

Mar 10, 2016 - 03:48pm PT

bluering, say WHAT? What history? While it may be true, even expected, that in a period of climate warming, some areas might actually cool and/or have higher snowfalls. But this takes some sophisticated modeling and could not be predicted out-of-hand based on anecdotal evidence.

I will say this, if we are around as a species long enough, we will likely experience an ice age like the one that buried New York City under a two-mile-thick ice sheet (aka, the last one). That may well be worse than global warming - it's also likely tens of thousands of years in the future. At that time, my house might just be in the exact right place - on dry land but with glacier views. I'm never lucky like that, however.

There are predictions that the very rapid rise in global warming may ultimately cause it's relatively rapid demise - a period of rapid global cooling as a kind of natural karma. That's the only kind of karma that I believe in - scientists know it as Le Chatelier's Principle.

monolith

climber

state of being

Mar 10, 2016 - 03:48pm PT

The prediction was 'in or lifetime'. We know much about the glacial and interglacial periods. We were already in the cooling portion of the Holocene before we started to emit vast amounts of CO2. So much so, we are in a new period, called the Anthropocene.

Mandobob

Trad climber

Mar 10, 2016 - 03:50pm PT

Keep in mind that satellite observation only go back around 30 yrs. So any long-term determinations based on such a short sample period are subject to the "small sample bias".

monolith

climber

state of being

Mar 10, 2016 - 03:57pm PT

And our trusted direct surface temperature measurements go back 150 years. And our reconstructions from ice-core data go back 800k years. Climate scientists are pretty certain our rapid warming is not just some natural process.