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Chris McNamara
SuperTopo staff member
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Topic Author's Original Post - Dec 18, 2008 - 09:49pm PT
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I got this article emailed to me from Robert Yoho. Thought it would be interesting discussion here since it addresses that ever elusive question... How Dangerous is Climbing?
Talk amongst your selves.. (who said that on SNL?)
 Chris
Trad Climbing: It’s More Risky Than You Think
By Robert Yoho, MD
Comments or requests for reprints may be addressed to ryrobert@pacbell.net or accessed from DrYoho.com.
Minor surgery is surgery someone else is having. –J Carl Cook
A safe climb is a climb someone else is climbing. --Robert Yoho
Who can you trust? Who is “safe”? How dangerous is climbing? How can I improve my chances of having a fatal stroke in an argument over retro-bolting at the American Alpine meeting when I am 88? Continue, gentle reader, all will be revealed.
This question of who to climb with seems different for every climber. Some people will climb promiscuously with everyone they meet, any time, anywhere. These climbing sluts(1) don’t care who you are or even what species you are as long as you can hold the rope and do the deed. Others regard climbing as so dangerous that they have confidence only in their closest friends. Sometimes this last breed is even completely monogamous, an anomaly in this odd world of odd characters and odd differences in intellect and confidence. But I say it here: first, climbing risks are very high, second, there are generally accepted standards of behavior, third, you can and should judge your partner’s performance, and fourth educating yourself and eliminating problem partners reduces your risk tremendously. The standards are simple and fairly easy to learn for trad climbers (2) on reasonably safe routes with potentially good anchors. There are lessons here also for those climbing alpine or mixed routes. (3)
Climbing partners’ responsibilities (4) are almost precisely analogous to those of caregivers in medical situations or of a pilot operating an airplane with passengers. All are responsible for live(s) and have duties to perform, and rules to follow, which are in the vast majority of cases simple and occasionally critical. The criteria for who should and can continue to practice anesthesia, surgery, or who can continue to work in an intensive care unit as a Registered Nurse and give intravenous medications under protocol, are well worked out and will be shown here to be closely related to judgment about who should be allowed to climb with you (of course, climbers are each responsible for the other while in medicine or flying the responsibility is one-way).
Now, how important is all of this: how risky is climbing? John Dill, in his classic article about death and injury in Yosemite (5) gives some of the best statistics available on climbing risks, see table 1. When he examined 75 incidents in the 20 years from 1970 through 1990, he found human error was probably responsible for 80 per cent of the fatalities. Good information on fatalities is easier to obtain than on accidents, which may not be reported and span a spectrum of severity. He estimates that 25,000 to 50,000 climber-days a year were involved for 2.5 fatalities on average per year.
Table 1 doesn’t look so bad, but these figures are just for one day of Yosemite climbing. Taking these statistics as a crude mortality model for trad climbing (6), chances of dying when climbing actively every third weekend for two days for a year are: 35 days/year x 2.5 deaths/year / 37,500 climber-days/year or 1/429! And broken bones are 50 / 37,500 days, so chances of this for such a climber are 1/21 per year. Big, big numbers. Climb like this for 10 years and you may have 1/42 chances of dying climbing and 50:50 chance of breaking bones… To comprehend this better, see table 2 for comparison with other well-known risks. Climbing is a lot more dangerous than almost anything else you can think of. After examining these statistics, the author realized that he was subjecting himself to risk far higher than the surgical risks of his patients, and higher than surgeries he does not do because of the risk to the patient (tummy tuck).
Table 1. Yosemite Climbing Accidents (5)
Cause of Death In Statistical Terms
Fatalities (2.5/year) 1/15,000 climber-days
Bone fractures (50/year) 1/750 climber-days
Leader falls as per cent of accidents 25 per cent of fatal/near fatal
Rockfall as per cent of accidents 10 per cent of fatal/near fatal
Soloing unroped as per cent of accidents 25 per cent of fatal/near fatal
Simple mistakes with gear as % accidents 40 per cent of fatal/near fatal
Table 2. General Death Rates (7)
Cause of Death U.S. Fatalities / Year
Accidents/unintentional injury 1/3,000
Pregnancy and childbirth 1/10,000
Heart disease 1/400
Cancer 1/500
Stroke 1/1,600
Auto accidents 1/7000
Pneumonia and Flu 1/400
Homicide 1/16,000
Amateur flying small plane 100 hours in a year 1/1000 (8.6)
Skydiving (parachuting) 10 jumps in 1992 1/6500
Yearly death by traffic accident US citizens 1/7,000
Risk from tummy-tuck, (most dangerous cosmetic surgery):
1/2500
Risk from general anesthesia, any health status 1/11,000
Appendectomy, worst calculated death rate 1/500
Stomach stapling for weight reduction 1/200 – 1/300 (!)
Overall general surgery risk rate (all health classes) 1/500
And in Yosemite climbing, according to Dill 80 per cent of bad outcomes were related to human error. 80 per cent. Doing everything right would cut your accident and death rate by 4/5ths! In medicine on the other hand the vast majority of bad outcomes, including deaths are regarded as inevitable and no one’s fault. One example is an accepted complication during a surgery that occurs in a statistical subset of patients. Infection, even fatal infection, occurs sometimes even when the doctor does everything right. “Negligence” however, is defined as when a doctor doesn’t perform according to accepted standards (8): the human error that Dill refers to above. The medical board in each state has the responsibility to evaluate complaints and determine if the doctor has the wherewithal to continue to practice medicine, or if his license should be discontinued or monitored. The discipline process in regard to a physician is complex and the issues are sometimes obscure, but let it suffice to say that a lot of people are watching us and we have less responsibility statistically than a climbing partner and far less statistical likelihood of negligence.
And registered nurses routinely get fired for medication errors. Just one medication error, sometimes. They have been trained for years to be careful and double-check meds. Small plane pilots have roughly the equivalent risks per hour (8.5) as Yosemite trad climbers. These people have been trained and tested exhaustively, their airplanes are subject to extensive maintenance requirements, and what they are doing is acknowledged (by everyone but the pilots themselves!) as very hazardous.
As the first author put together the information for this article, he found that his own safety and rescue skills were rudimentary, despite climbing experience of over 35 years (see box). He couldn’t do a mechanical advantage hauling system, he never carried a knife, and there were embarrassing lapses in some of his rappelling techniques. After some reading and changes in some habits, he has tried to be a safer climber and a better judge of his partners.
(Inset Box)
Abbreviated Climbing CV: Robert Yoho, MD
First ascents: approximate year
El Matador, Devils Tower, 11a mid 70’s
Carol’s Crack Devil’s Tower 10d mid 70’s
Various Joshua Tree short free climbs mid-late 70’s
Selected free climbs:
Naked Edge El Dorado Cyn, Boulder late 70’s
Astroman, Crucifix, W. Face El Capitan, Rostrum
Chouinard Herbert (Yosemite) mid 80’s
Beggar’s buttress free except last pitch (Yosemite) 2004
Walls:
Nose, Leaning tower late 70’s
Half dome regular route mid 70’s
Half dome in day 2004
Hardest redpoint 12b
Hardest trad flash 11d
Hardest solo of climb usually lead with rope 10c
Each climber has to be his own “medical board” in regard to himself and his partners. There is no formal licensure, but your rough guidelines are right here in this article. If someone with years of experience and who is assumed to be competent violates some basic principle, you should terminate his license to trad climb with you. They either are 1) too dumb to understand the systems’ importance and intricacies or 2) messed up emotionally by their personal circumstances so their judgment is haywire or 3) unconsciously suicidal, homicidal or depressed or 4) freaked-out by the climb so they can’t perform or 5) on drugs 6) doesn’t get along with you and so is acting out or… a host of other possibilities. And you don’t want to climb trad with an un-athletic klutz who is smart but may make a coordination mistake that results in a big problem. Can your partner habituate to the risks and apparent risks of climbing, and function with a clear head through these pressures? Here’s an example of someone who is no dummy, and a famous mountaineer, but has one type of problem that should rule him out as a partner. He says, “both early and late in my mountaineering career, my greatest failing has stemmed from an apparently innate mechanical incompetence. Gear of all kinds baffles and infuriates me, and I am incapable of repairing the simplest device of any sort, let alone contemplating how it works." He then goes on to describe fatalities that were at least partly related to gear screw-ups. This guy was educated to the best climbing standards of the day (1960's) and a very competent climber physically who put in world-class routes but from what he writes, it isn’t completely clear he was always tying bowlines at anchors. And he still (in 2005) seems to be in the dark about the fact that two half hitches transpose into a square knot, not a granny. (8.6)
And you’d better have some idea of your own physical and emotional state when climbing. If you aren’t sure you know what you are doing, you’d better do some reading, take a course, and practice in a controlled environment. It’s bad for your health to be ignorant or distracted. You can’t evaluate your behavior or your partner’s.
What is the cause of a partner’s error(s)? It doesn’t really matter. This person is putting your life in big, big danger. Friendship is not even a consideration. To paraphrase Mario Puzo in The Godfather, any mistake of a serious kind is both personal and business. The important question is: do you give them another chance? As with medical personnel, the answer is: maybe. It depends partly on how they respond to your explanation of the problem. If they readily understand and admit the error and there’s some sort of good excuse (two days of no food or water for example), maybe.
What is a mistake? Protection, belay, anchor, and other climbing standards have been explained in elegant and interesting ways elsewhere (8.75) and it is beyond the scope of this article to give more than a few obvious examples. Additionally, judgment differs depending on the type of climbing you are doing and your personal definition of the risks you are willing to take for your sport. Know the risks of what you do, and understand what you personally define as insanity. The first author, for example, feels that risks of alpine or altitude climbing are unreasonable. Himalayan climbing, of course is very risky; “a rigorous German study … concluded that on any given expedition to an 8000-meter peak, a climber stands a 1 in 34 chance of dying” (8.6)). Much of the following should be universal, although there is quibbling about some of it. (8.65)
Rigging the anchor so if one point fails, the whole thing unthreads is grounds for licensure revocation. No second chances. Using the Euro death knot (9) probably should be a no-no. Running it out off the anchor after the belayer explains that fall factor reducing pieces might put your partner in “sport climbing only” category (10). If your friend runs it out on lead after pieces have been placed and the anchor is secure: you might consider it his problem if he breaks his head. Refusing to use a Cinch or Grigri for belay (11) probably increases your risks. Should you climb with Dean Potter? Nope. We admire the son of a bitch, but he doesn’t seem to have it in his head that he needs a minimum of two anchors at all times to keep him alive (12). And your partner should not rappel without a backup friction knot.
Work on teaching your partners mechanical advantage hauling systems. You will be safer for it.
The take-home message: you have to educate yourself constantly and keep your eyes open. And you can’t let “friendship” stand in the way of staying alive. Trad climbing is a MUCH more dangerous game than most people realize, with generally even more responsibility than the practice of medicine. You wouldn’t let a hack operate on you, don’t allow anyone second rate to be your trad partner.
Stop climbing with anyone, no matter how much you like them, after two significant judgment errors, especially in one day. Go sport climbing with them, but not trad. You don’t want a spinal injury, and you don’t want to bother with a rescue. Just pray to your gods for a few more years of good health.
End notes
(1) Credit goes to Bill Wright and Hans Florine in their wonderful book Speed Climbing for this colorful terminology.
(2) Although sport climbing bolt-to-bolt is risky compared to a meal at KFC®, the risk is generally small enough that it is hard to quantify. In author's opinion, in this arena, you (alone) can generally control the entire human error risk to yourself by judicious—read alert and paranoid—observation, plus universal use of a Grigri® or Cinch®.
(3) Which are orders of magnitude more complex and hazardous and require many other skills and judgment qualities. Their screening and evaluation process for partners must be more exacting. Because of the risks accepted--witness the graveyard in Chamonix--the homoerotic quality the Mark Twight has with his partners is not at all misplaced, even if Twight is indeed heterosexual. (The author makes no speculation and has no knowledge regarding this issue, and considers what Twight does in his time outside of climbing to be entirely his own affair). In this arena, you actually have to get to know your partner. It’s a requirement.
(4) Of course, all bets are off for a beginner or guide-beginner relationship. Beginners must be supervised with an eye like a hawk, and well-trained, experienced guides should have a paranoia level higher than a rat in the snake cage. If the beginner is injured or worse, the guide is ethically responsible. This is true even if the climber guided is experienced. The herein is about climbing (or not climbing) with someone who is your peer.
(5) Dill, John “Staying Alive” accessed August 17, 2005, at http://www.bluebison.net/yosar/alive.htm.
(6) US trad climbers in other locations probably have lower average risks per climbing day, so these statistics may overstate USA trad climbing morbidity and mortality somewhat.
(7) Yoho RA, Romaine JJ, O'Neil D. Review of the liposuction, abdominoplasty, and face-lift mortality and morbidity risk literature. Dermatol Surg. 2005 Jul;31(7 Pt 1):733-43; discussion 743. For many more statistics of this kind and explanations of risk in more detail, you may download this article from DrYoho.com.
(8) When his patient is injured as a result, there may be grounds for a lawsuit. The full definition of negligence: “the omission to do something that a reasonable person, guided by those considerations that ordinarily regulate the conduct of human affairs, would do, or the doing of something that a prudent and reasonable person would not do. Negligence is not an absolute term, but a relative one, and whether or not a particular act or omission constitutes negligence depends by definition on the particular circumstances, considering especially the time, place, and persons involved. A determination of negligence is a legal conclusion that can only be arrived at by a court of law.” Gross negligence and incompetence are even worse. Gross negligence has been defined as “an extreme departure from the ordinary standard of conduct, as an entire failure to exercise care, as the exercise of so slight a degree of care as to justify the belief that there was an indifference to the interest and welfare of others, and as that want of care that raises a presumption of conscious indifference to consequences. A determination of gross negligence is a legal conclusion that can only be arrived at by a court of law.” (source of these definitions: http://www.dir.ca.gov/dlse/Glossary.asp?Button1=N, accessed August 17, 2005.
(8.5) Fallows, J. Free Flight. New York, NY: Public Affairs New York; 2001:59.
(8.6) Roberts, David, On the Ridge Between Life and Death, Simon and Schuster, NY, NY 2005, p134-5 and 145.
(8.65) While reviewing the available information for this article, one author (RY) was surprised at his own lack of sophistication, and commenced an extensive review of current standards.
(8.7) Fasulo, David. Self Rescue. Falcon Press, 1966. Robbins, Royal. Basic Rockcraft. Long, John. Climbing Anchors. Etc.
(9) see http://www.snowdonia-adventures.co.uk/EDK-Table.htm (accessed August 17, 2005) for details of why overhand loop without a backup may be an unwise choice for joining rappel ropes.
(10) (further details of this with referenced source would be helpful, I just heard a rumor) Climbers on Middle Cathedral last year had three camming units deform and pull out of granite and they got the quick trip to the Valley floor after an apparent factor 2 fall. We do not know whether the pieces were equalized, but they were all three apparently in there pretty good because the units were ruined. My paranoia about the leader falling on the anchor is unlimited, even with a good anchor.
(11) It is my firmly held conviction that a Cinch or Grigri with the brake hand off the rope is safer for the climbing team as a whole than the most experienced and reliable belayer in the world using a plate or other passive device. Why? If a rock hits my compulsive plate belayer and kills her, we find that I fall and die also. I live to self-rescue if she’s using the Cinch and I of course am able to additionally rescue her if she is merely unconscious, all because the device works when the belayer is inattentive. All this and most of us have seen people dropped 20 feet by accident because some experienced hot shot took his hand off the belay rope using some stupid tuber or plate. My opinion: none of these plates are as good as a Munter knot for belaying except perhaps a Reverso.
(12) For the beginner, and for some advanced climbers I know: the most basic precept in climbing is that you need two absolutely bombproof and separately constituted items to attach you to the rock, and if you don’t you’d better hold on tight because you never trust just one except the Rope and the Rope is sort of a God you believe in, because rope failure is almost unheard-of.
Do You Have Any Idea At All What You Are Doing…
A Continuing Education test for Trad Climbers. (MAY NOT APPLY TO ALPINE, where other considerations such as speed, weight, and equipment limitations are more significant to overall safety.)
1) What is the most basic principle in protection in rock climbing roped climbing? Hint: our hero Dean Potter violates this principle routinely but is still alive because House odds advantage hasn’t caught up with him yet.
2) Explain what fall factors are and how this relates to leading off anchors and how the anchors are loaded if a fall occurs.
3) How many equalized #2 Camelot equivalent do you need for adequate anchor in Yosemite granite?
4) The following are rappel anchors. Explain what, if any, the problems are with the systems the way they are set up. (diagrams show various systems with one link in rappel chain at some point.)
5) How could you correct problem(s) with any of the above rappel setups. (leave a biner or thread a runner to make double systems at the only point which is a single system)
6) Explain the differences between a single rope system, double rope, and twin rope systems.
7) Diagram 3:1, 5:1 and 7:1 mechanical advantage hauling systems. (No, this is not for extra credit. You are a trad climber and need to be able to haul your unconscious partner up to a ledge).
8) What is a euro death knot and what are it’s advantages and disadvantages? For extra credit, in what country is it taught as the brainless standard? Hint, it’s not in Europe. (New Zealand)
9) Examine the following two anchors. Describe the problem(s) if any with each. (2 bolts, one double sling, one example with sling clipped with self-equalizer method, but with one bolt going out, other would be shock loaded. This has single locker clipped into rope that goes to climber, a barely acceptable option. Other system, unacceptable, has Reid Malenbaum method of clipping both slings in middle, one blows and the whole thing unthreads.)
10) Name four methods for backing up rappels. (knots in end of rope, autoblock, Kleinheist or prussic knot with extender, sliding ascender down the rope above the rappel system, partner at bottom of rappel holding on to rope to tighten it if out of control event happens. Simul rap on separate ends with 6 foot leash tying partners together.
11) Show how to tie autoblock and Kleinheist.
12) You drop your jumars but have to go down a fixed line to free it. How do you get back up? (three answers) (alternate prussics with backup knots tied, Bachman with backup knot tied, prussic or Bachman with foot in loop of rope or ___ knot for your foot. Any answer that does not include backup knot, no credit and two points off).
13) Do you have a knife on your harness or in your pocket when you trad climb?
14) Do you wear a helmet?
15) See the following diagrams. Is 1) more reliable or 2) and explain why. (Tied off piton with girth hitch versus carabiner clipped through eye of piton, which protrudes from crack half it’s length.)
16) What can be relied on as single system to support your life in climbing? (Single rope UIAA rated, carefully observed to be not running over an edge. Belay device, locking carabiner and harness loop when you are belaying partner. Many guides rely on locking carabiners as single system for clipping into an anchor, but authors believe these should be backed up.)
17) By what percent do you improve your chances of living through the climb if you and your partner both use self locking devices for belaying the leader, i.e. Cinch or Grigri? (authors estimate 5-10 per cent, even with best belayer who ever existed: see rationale in footnotes).
18) What is rope creep on rappel and what are potential consequences? (Thicker rope tends to stretch less and the thinner rope goes through the anchor, thus when you get to the end of the lines there is a potential for rapping off the shorter (thicker) line if you haven’t tied knot in ends of rope.
19) Describe munter-mule knot and what it is used for. (diagram. Used with prussic, kleinheist, or other friction knot to take tension off a weighted rope for various purposes, such as escaping the belay to rescue or go for help.)
20) Name the advantages and disadvantages of belaying from the power point, and describe exactly what this is. (Advantages: easy escape from belay. Be careful with passive device: you need a redirect of belay rope going from the device to belay hand for proper safety.)
1-4 right, you are qualified to toprope at the local gym.
4-8 you have lead privileges at your gym. Go outside only to sunbathe.
9-12 right: you may take a climbing class from an ACGME approved guide.
12-18 right: toproping outside OK, don’t lead.
18-24. You may lead, but be careful out there.
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Fish Finder
Social climber
THE BOTTOM OF MY HEART
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Dec 18, 2008 - 10:14pm PT
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"Talk amongst your selves.. (who said that on SNL?) "
Mike Myers as a verklemt jewish mom on "coffee talk"
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Jaybro
Social climber
wuz real!
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Dec 18, 2008 - 10:18pm PT
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Just the other day I was thinking, whatever happened to Bob Yoho? Apparently, he's still, out there.
What about Chic Holtcamp?
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Porkchop_express
Trad climber
thats what she said...
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Dec 18, 2008 - 10:21pm PT
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this is a really good article. I am new to leading trad and my belayer is also fairly new, but I find that my passing on newly learned techniques helps me become more solid myself. With the exception of the hauling/carrying a knife, i have a pretty solid grasp on the information presented here. On the other hand, a pretty solid grasp vs knowing it dead on, fwds and backwards is still cause to hit the books, hit the crags and improve.
Its both encouragement and motivation all in one. I like the licensure terminology used...not that i favor licenses for climbing, but its nice to have a sort of quantifiable measurement of what you know and what you ought to know.
Steve
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rich sims
Trad climber
co
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Dec 18, 2008 - 10:28pm PT
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Jay
How did we ever progress to climbing outside?
Climbing outside it just sounds soooo scary.
Maybe I will try it. Ah but not tomorrow the way the snow in falling
Rich
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Toker Villain
Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
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Dec 18, 2008 - 10:32pm PT
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If you stay home you won't die climbing but you WILL die.
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Ksolem
Trad climber
Monrovia, California
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Dec 18, 2008 - 10:33pm PT
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Jaybro - I made a quite memorable trip to the Gunks, about 5 years ago with Yoho and Holtkamp. The climbing was great. Dr. Yoho in a drinking contest with Dick Williams was even better (I was the driver...)
Anyway, I haven't seen Chick since then, but I see Yoho periodically and he is well and prospering in the cosmetic surgery biz...
I think he can be found frequently at the Riverside quarry...
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Jaybro
Social climber
wuz real!
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Dec 18, 2008 - 10:34pm PT
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It's cool Rich, some boob surgeon said I'm safe according to his test... I think...
yeah, Yoho pops up every now and then, more no doubt, if you're in touch. Just seems like I haven't heard about Holtcamp in a while.
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Lynne Leichtfuss
Social climber
valley center, ca
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Dec 19, 2008 - 12:17am PT
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This post was difficult for me to process. First, when you write lengthy pieces of information you need to make paragraphs. That's how it's done in the English language. "Run on" sentences are difficult for people to process. They flow like a river and unlike the river there is no way to process this runon info.
I never climbed much BITD. Recently resurrected my almost non existent climbing life. Ya, it's risky. Yo need to know the basics, be careful, CHECK EVERYTHING and then enjoy the heck out of this glorious sport. Pro forgot something, please post what I forgot. AND HEY, Go Climb and enjoy. :))
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JLP
Social climber
The internet
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Dec 19, 2008 - 12:21am PT
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I don't like all the statistics and gear and procedures talk.
I say don't fall in the first place.
Know your limits, know your grip, your strength, know your margins with both gear and physical ability, relative to the current situation. Way more imporant than a bunch of knots and grigris and heady intellectualizations about gear.
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Gary
climber
Desolation Basin, Calif.
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Dec 19, 2008 - 12:42am PT
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I do agree with the good doctor that climbing with people you don't know is just plain stupid. I've never climbed with a stranger from camp or someone I met on the Internet.
Oops, except for Batten!
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WBraun
climber
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Dec 19, 2008 - 12:51am PT
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" ... climbing with people you don't know is just plain stupid."
Gary, how in hell can someone even say something like that.
I've climbed with many people who I just walked up to and said "hey wanna go climbing?" who I've never met or knew before.
That's how I met John Middendorf, Xaviar, etc etc originally.
Bridwell climbing 2nd ascent of Cerro Torre with a guy he had no clue about.
Yoho calling Bridwell stupid????
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Tarbuster
climber
right here, right now
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Dec 19, 2008 - 01:07am PT
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Is there an abridged version? Cliff notes to the Yoho manifesto?
"We now are limits, cuz we cross 'em every night"
DEVO
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Omot
Trad climber
The here and now
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Dec 19, 2008 - 01:42am PT
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I've got some problems with this article.
The climbing stats may be correct, but the good doctor's use of them is a bit confused. If the death rate is 1 death per 15000 climber-days, then climbing 35 days/year just means ON AVERAGE there is 1 death per 429 climbers per year. This not the chance, or probability, that an individual climber would die in one of those 35 climbing days. Using his logic, one would have a probability of 1 (i.e. certainty) of dying while climbing 35 days per year over 40 years. Fred Becky (and many others I'm sure) proves this is incorrect reasoning!
Such an oversimplification ignores all the variables that roll into the chance that on any given day of activity, a climber will die. And it seems to have made the doctor overly worried about the risk he is taking while climbing. That's the saddest part. He seems to have forgotten the reasons for climbing are not to avoid death, but to confront life...and meet interesting people with similar interests.
Finally, from experience I've learned that the more I climb the LESS likely I will screw up. Being sketched on a route is way more dangerous than being dialed in and in control, and we all know it just takes time on the sharp end to feel in control. This non-linearity in the death rate is not taken into account at all.
Tomo
P.S. As usual, just listen to Werner
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jbar
Ice climber
Russia with love.
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Dec 19, 2008 - 02:17am PT
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The rope is for safety, not for climbing. Just don't fall. The article was long and boring. Not very well written but I thought it was funny when he called Mark Twight a homo but then tried to cover.
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Elcapinyoazz
Social climber
Redlands
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Dec 19, 2008 - 02:38am PT
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Saw yoho at the quarry a couple months ago. Seems fit for a codger.
Article is horseshit though. Extrapolates data without accounting for things such as climbers' experience, difficulty of route, etc.
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TradIsGood
Chalkless climber
the Gunks end of the country
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Dec 19, 2008 - 07:11am PT
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Omot, your math is atrocious!
The original statistic is 2.5 per 25,000 climber days (on the more dangerous side). That means that the probability of surviving a climbing day is 0.9999 (1 in 10,000 chance of dying).
10 years of 35 days per year is 350.
1 - 0.9999^350 = 0.0343 (3.43%)
Using the 1 in 20,000... you get 1.73% for 350 climber days.
The real question is whether these statistics are still representative of the risk today.
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Double D
climber
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Dec 19, 2008 - 10:23am PT
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"you should terminate his license to trad climb with you. They either are ....or 5) on drugs."
This statement alone virtually eliminates 99.5% of all my past climbing partners and proclaims that I am a walking miracle!
LOL! (-;
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rectorsquid
climber
Lake Tahoe
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Dec 19, 2008 - 01:43pm PT
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You have a 1 in 80 chance of being killed in a car in your lifetime and a 1 in 30 chance of being killed on a motorcycle in your lifetime. 1 in 42 chance of being killed climbing in 10 years sounds bad but I've only got another 10 or 20 year of climbing left in me, if that. It sounds like a reasonable risk compared to the rest of the dangers in my life.
Dave
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Captain...or Skully
Gym climber
Where are YOU from Holmes?
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Dec 19, 2008 - 01:46pm PT
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You also have a 1 in 1 chance of dying.
Best odds in town.
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Tarbuster
climber
right here, right now
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Dec 19, 2008 - 01:54pm PT
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Some people have notably brought up the risk discrepancy observable between old-school/new school.
I've known a lot of climbers over the years; maybe 300.
A good deal of my buddies/acquaintances have died in the last 10 to 15 years;
I've lost count but, 15-20 for sure.
... hardly any of them from rockclimbing related accidents.
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Ed Bannister
Mountain climber
Riverside, CA
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Dec 19, 2008 - 02:08pm PT
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"wayyy dangerous"
It turns out, trad climbing demands that the climber think!
Yarding on upside-down jugs and clipping preplaced draws is akin to painting by the numbers. Yes it requires skill and exact execution, and ohh is it SAFE!
safe from responsibility of balancing a myriad of factors
route selection You don't even have to be able to climb the route!
weather You never have to know what a dropping barometer, or an alto cumulus means when belaying on bolts, from your bumper
you are safe from thinking about pro interval and position relative to the route, for the climber and the second.
pro placement security
belay stance selection and the rest
routefinding
rock quality stability,
which way to throw the dinner plate (don't drop it on your girl)
choose safe, don't think trad, it's for unsafe people.
until you hear about two idiots at lover's leap that are in shorts and tshirts, two pitches up, and it starts to snow, and they don't know how to rappell down.
safe, it turns out, is rendering a situation harmless, by what you know,
Ed
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Albert
climber
The Valley
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Dec 19, 2008 - 02:23pm PT
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For Chris Mac: Why would you post such crap dude?
Yoho: You callin' Twight a fag? huh?
I bet you wrote this (horribly written) "article" to make yourself feel better for being such a pussy...
to quote Werner: Hey ....fuk you Yoho
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TradIsGood
Chalkless climber
the Gunks end of the country
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Dec 19, 2008 - 03:00pm PT
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While pondering the probability you might consider what a climber day is and whether that is the conditional event appropriate for risk measurement.
For example, the airplane probability was measured in flight hours. In fact, the most risky flight operations are landing and taking off, each of which take a matter of a few seconds.
The hours spent flying are relatively low risk by comparison so long as the hours of any given flight do not exceed the available fuel.
So for flying, if one were going to use a single measure to predict risk, it should be the number of flights, not the hours flown or the miles traveled.
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Jingy
Social climber
Flatland, Ca
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Dec 19, 2008 - 03:35pm PT
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Chris Mac - It was that lady that loved Barbra Strizand(sp?), and was always va-clempt(sp?)!! Mike Myers character.
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nutjob
Stoked OW climber
San Jose, CA
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Dec 19, 2008 - 05:40pm PT
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50:50 chance of broken bones after 10 years of climbing? That doesn't sound at all right to me. I don't personally know anyone who has broken bones from climbing. I know of people in this extended virtual social circle, but I'd be surprised if 5-10% of people had broken bones from climbing.
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nutjob
Stoked OW climber
San Jose, CA
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Dec 19, 2008 - 05:43pm PT
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Judging partners and their experience....
I've been a little promiscuous in the last couple of years; I generally ask screening questions like what routes they have climbed and talk about some of the details to validate their experience. I also ask about what kind of epic events they've been through, what led to those events, how they got through it, etc.
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Tarbuster
climber
right here, right now
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Dec 19, 2008 - 08:42pm PT
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”I thought by posting that article there might be some good discussion about the dangers of climbing.”
Of course we appreciate the OP.
I know you are not particularly new to the forum Chris,
But,
It’s important to remember a few things here: Supertopo contributors can easily be characterized, on the whole, as a bunch of fat, out of shape, balding, computer stranded never-has-beens who haven’t really climbed much, or even touched stone, in the last 20 years … plus a handful of really hot cute chicks.
(WTF???)
So we tend to behave, by and large (except of course those few wayward really cute hot chicks who’ve wandered onto the board), as a cloister of festering, insecure male adolescents.
In short, we love to be provoked, so:
We'll get to the bottom of this Yoho thing yet…
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Jaybro
Social climber
wuz real!
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Dec 19, 2008 - 08:52pm PT
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I remember a relevant article By Greg Child. He rapped off the end of his rope or something and ended up in the hospital. He wrote an analysis (I don't remember how scientific)where he discussed the probaabilty of making dumb moves relative to how long you climb. If I recall is conclusions was that if you do it long enough, you're gonna fuçk up eventually. Double check everything. Anyone have that one readily scan-able?
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Matt
Trad climber
primordial soup
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Dec 19, 2008 - 09:33pm PT
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as noted by others, the authors statistical premise is fundamentally flawed in multiple ways, and most are fairly obvious!
helmets?
free soloists?
climbing long routes in less than stellar weather or when days are short?
lead climbing vs. top roping?
cragging?
rapping?
experience?
known rock fall zones?
i used to tell my mom (back when she made me call her from the road on sundays as i drove home from yosemite, just to let her know that i was safe and sound) that the most dangerous part of my climbing weekend was calling her from my cel phone whist i was driving...
and of course, now that i have out lived her, there is no need to make those calls any more.
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Tarbuster
climber
right here, right now
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Dec 19, 2008 - 09:53pm PT
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Make the call anyway Matt.
After all,
It's your mom.
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apogee
climber
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Dec 19, 2008 - 09:55pm PT
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" Supertopo contributors can easily be characterized, on the whole, as a bunch of fat, out of shape, balding, computer stranded never-has-beens who haven’t really climbed much, or even touched stone, in the last 20 years"
The ST Forums Post of the Year!
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Tarbuster
climber
right here, right now
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Dec 19, 2008 - 09:57pm PT
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Not to be taken literally, or to the bank or anything.
And not that there's anything wrong with it either way...
(Kingsbury Brothers excluded of course)
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Deemed Useless
Social climber
Ca.
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Dec 20, 2008 - 01:42am PT
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I broke my right tibula & fibula on a sport climb & no I did not "deck". Ten feet and bad luck is all it takes.
The leg healed, but the head games have not ceased.
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Matt
Trad climber
primordial soup
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Dec 20, 2008 - 04:39am PT
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tarbuster-
i would give almost anything to still make that call
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jbar
Ice climber
Russia with love.
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Dec 20, 2008 - 04:59am PT
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Rokjox - right on bro! I'd like to post the exact same thing only it would be the exact same thing. I don't have nearly your experience climbing and I'm not the greatest climber but I'm safe and methodical. I'm particular about who I turst and require logical reasons for doing the things I do. I can tell when someone knows their shiz and if said person offers advice or gives me tips I listen. I only got into climbing for something to do outside and because a friend was a sponsored climber. He isn't world famous but he's one of the best climbers I have ever seen and I trust him with my life (obviously). I have had the opportunity to follow him up some stuff I would never have tried on my own and he is the one who showed me all the basics. I had never climbed anywhere except on the rock but this winter I decided to check out a gym. Come to find out I do everything wrong. I don't use a grigri, I don't belay by holding the brake side way up in the air and catching it with my left pinkie b4 sliding my brake hand down, and I don't leave 10' of rope sticking out of my tie in so I can do a backup knot. Oh yeah, and I don't wear shoes that are so tight my toes curl and I have to take them off after I finish each route.
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dirtineye
Trad climber
the south
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Dec 20, 2008 - 05:16am PT
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Sure it's dangerous, but not nearly as dangerous as we might guess, cause judging from the number of serious errors made EVERY WEEK by boat loads of climbers, you'd think there would be bodies stacked up at the crags if climbing were really dangerous.
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Tarbuster
climber
right here, right now
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Dec 20, 2008 - 01:32pm PT
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The carnage in Eldorado Canyon seems to get worse by the year.
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Tarbuster
climber
right here, right now
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Dec 20, 2008 - 01:39pm PT
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Right on ROX!
Especially the confidence bit.
My best partners are the ones that exuded confidence in my ability to complete the lead.
I'm going to have to saddle up and actually read YOHO's long-winded treatise here in a bit.
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Nick
climber
portland, Oregon
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Dec 20, 2008 - 03:22pm PT
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I am not a physicist, nor do I play one on TV. But, it seems obvious that at some point a system becomes so complicated that predicting outcomes becomes very difficult. If I understand it correctly, I am probably just blowing hot air as usual, complexity theory basically states that when qualitative factors are added into a linear system the system become less predictable. Trad climbing has many very important qualitative components, probably the most important being the confidence and competence of both belayer and climber. So it seems to me, sport climbing with big fat bolts and a grigri is a fairly simple system and therefore safer because it is easier to manage all the components. Trad climbing with natural anchors is much more complex and it is much more difficult to predict outcomes. Trad climbing given the same climbing partners operating in the same fashion is more dangerous than sport. What the hell am I trying to say here? Danger is subjective and difficult to measure. We all make judgment calls everyday. For me, if a person’s skill is in question, I tend toward sport climbing. If I judge a person to be incompetent and no fun to climb with, well I won’t be tying in with them any time soon. If a partner has the whole package, skills, attitude and experience I will hop on almost any climb within my ability. It’s all about the people. Good attitude and good skills make a safer and more enjoyable climb.
3” of snow in Portland and the city is paralyzed.
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jstan
climber
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Dec 20, 2008 - 04:15pm PT
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Statistics is an attempt to calculate probabilities when we lack critical information. Mortality tables do this without considering whether some people are climbers or base jumpers. Our failure to construct special populations does not mean the statistics are meaningless. It only means their interpretation needs to acknowledge our ignorance.
This poll might be construed as an attempt to construct such a special population but I warn you be prepared for criticism. First the data will be biased because it is based on only on those persons who are strange enough to volunteer information and who are still alive. It also needs to break out a subgroup of those climbers having two left feet.
To my mind the more interesting question is whether technical rock climbing, previously considered to be affected mainly by objective risk, is not taking on a stronger hue of subjective risk. Alpine climbers face subjective risks over which they have no control such as when a weather front comes at them from behind the peak. Climbers now use a greater variety of pre-placed devices to assure safety. Such as bolts that can no more be assessed than can the weather, and that wondrous entity the “fixed quick draw.”
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Jay Wood
Trad climber
Fairfax, CA
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Dec 21, 2008 - 04:23pm PT
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Ok, 1/429 chance of dying sounds bad.
As I read it:
1 death per 15,000 climber days assumed.
35 climbing days per year assumed.
15,000/35= 429
This says that if you climbed 35 days per year for 429 years, you would statistically die during that time.
Now, since most of us won't be able to climb for that long- lets say 40 years. So then the odds are 1/10 as much, or 1/4,290
Or another way:
If you climbed EVERY day from age 16 to age 57 (15,000/365=41 years), you would statistically have 100% chance of dying during that time.
Other thoughts that comes up re climbing partner safety:
If you are very conservative in choice of partners, it will be vastly safer, because your partner won't be able to go (schedule, injury, wife, moved, etc.), so you won't climb. And since an unknown, and therefore unsafe, partner is so risky, then you will sit home eating fried food (1/400 mortality odds from heart disease).
Further, if, against your better judgement, you do practice 'unsafe climbing', it is likely that your partner will find you annoying, (and slow, since you are overweight) and not climb with you again! (insert odds of depression mortality here)
But if you rally, and get off the couch, you can hire Dr. Yoho to staple your stomach as part of you weight- loss plan. (1/300 mortality risk)
I do like the emphasis on taking more responsibility for one's partner safety level...
Personally, I tend to distribute and promote the use of rappel back-up loops.
Kind of like handing out condoms....
End of musings- carry on.
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murcy
climber
San Fran Cisco
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Dec 21, 2008 - 05:02pm PT
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Having climbed with you, Jay, I can vouch for your safety practices. But I have some reservations about your math.
If one climber dies for every 429 climbing-years (with 35 climbing days per climbing year), then each climber has 1/429 chance of dying every year. That doesn't mean a climber who climbs for 429 years is certain to die, any more than a fair coin is guaranteed to land tails in two tosses (the actual chance of that is .75), or a fair die to show a six in six rolls (actual chance is .66).
Where p is the probability of dying in any given year, and y is the number of years, the chance of NOT dying in y years is (1-p) raised to the power y, and the chance of dying is 1 minus that.
If there's a 1/429 chance of dying every year, then:
YEARS CHANCE
1 0.002
10 0.023
20 0.046
30 0.068
40 0.089
50 0.110
429 0.633
Like the original article said, those are some pretty high odds of buying the farm. Whether they're applicable to a given climber is a whole nother question.
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murcy
climber
San Fran Cisco
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Dec 21, 2008 - 05:10pm PT
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yes, but use bendy, rubber-tipped needles.
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Jay Wood
Trad climber
Fairfax, CA
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Dec 21, 2008 - 05:40pm PT
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Murcy-
Whoa. We were climbing sluts, and no one died!
So are you saying that in the 429 years illustration, in year 429 you have a 2/3 chance of dying, if you're not dead yet?
I'm actually most interested in the relative risks of climbing, and driving.
In discussing the difference between fear and danger, I use the example of driving i.e.
If you weren't accustomed to it, you would sh#t your pants when driving down the highway with other cars passing a few feet away at combined speeds of over 100 mph.
And in fact this is arguably more risky than climbing, where at least you have some idea of your partner's state, unlike the hundreds of potentially drunk, stoned, ill, or distracted drivers passing you daily.
Khanom-
It is 100% certain that you will die, no matter how much you climb.
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Matt
Trad climber
primordial soup
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Dec 21, 2008 - 07:19pm PT
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"...with whom..."
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Jay Wood
Trad climber
Fairfax, CA
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Dec 21, 2008 - 08:08pm PT
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Need more information.
-Would you rather die climbing, or knitting?
-If climbing, would you prefer to die on moderate, or hard route?
-Would you prefer to die by falling, personal lapse (rap off rope, etc.), or environmental conditions (rockfall, exposure)
-Do you favor biting it on cracks, slab, choss, or ? (needed to predict route)
-Should your partner be nOOb, experienced, man/woman, or should you be with secondary person such as paramedic?
-Why do want to know, and if you knew would you take steps to change the outcome?
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Porkchop_express
Trad climber
thats what she said...
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Dec 21, 2008 - 10:13pm PT
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I think the last question really hits it on the head. I wouldn't want to know. It would really take the fun out of everything before dying and the looming ever after would be that much more prominent in my mind.
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G_Gnome
Trad climber
In the mountains... somewhere...
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Dec 21, 2008 - 10:48pm PT
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And if I climb 150 days a year but I never get more than 4 feet off the ground on 100 of those days, what are my odds. The only thing I have figured out is that at some point I am going to die. It might as well be while climbing! I just hope if I go splat it is somewhere remote enough that my partner can walk away and the tools will never find me and desecrate my body.
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Dec 22, 2008 - 01:41pm PT
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g-nome- your odds of a bruised heel are astronomical. consider a pad.
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Doug Hemken
climber
Madison, WI
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Dec 22, 2008 - 02:03pm PT
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Suppose an urn contains 1 white ball and 9999 red balls.
Each day you remove one ball, selected uniformly at random, then return the ball to the urn. The game ends the day you remove the white ball.
What is the probability you will play for less than 350 days?
(Hint: what is the cumulative probability/ distribution function of a geometric random variable?)
What is the expected number of days you will play?
How many days would you expect to play if the urn contained 19999 red balls and 1 white ball?
Consider the Valley as an urn. Is every ball equally likely to be selected?
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TradIsGood
Chalkless climber
the Gunks end of the country
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Dec 22, 2008 - 02:08pm PT
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It depends....
on how much a red ball is worth, and your utility function.
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looking sketchy there...
Social climber
Latitute 33
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Dec 22, 2008 - 03:45pm PT
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Of course several people have made the same point, but I'll try to be clever and say it another way.
Any pure statisitical analysis (red/white balls) or allegedly relevant stats (climbing accident rates in the Valley) are meaningless.
The Human factor is impossible to quantify, but is at the heart of risk in climbing.
While Bob's article does emphasize choosing good climbing partners, in attempting to quantify how this is done he strays off-route...
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ricardo
Gym climber
San Francisco, CA
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Dec 22, 2008 - 04:29pm PT
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seems to me that you can greatly lower your chances of being killed by your partner while climbing by soloing ..
Someone once told me that if i survived my first year of leading, that I would then be ok .. they were right .. on that first year i made the following mistakes
1 - almost rapped while having belay device attached to harness gear loop. (double check caught that)
2 - led 5.9 when i was a 5.7 leader. (that was dumb)
3 - rapped off a fixed line that was attached to a locking carabiner, which was unlocked.
4 - slipped while downclimbing a 5.easy section of rock. (luckily i was attached to a line via a prussik)
5 - epiced while leading or rappelling a few times.
.. i wonder if there are statistics of how many leaders die in their first year.
.. i think that pete once summed it up .. -- you're going to make mistakes .. and usually a single mistake won't kill you .. (climbing is very safe because we usually use redundant systems) -- just hope that you dont make 2 or 3 mistakes at the same time ..
.. most fatalities happened because you made 3 mistakes at the same time.
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dmitry
Trad climber
the evil empire
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Dec 22, 2008 - 06:10pm PT
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I would climb with anyone, but am a little choosier about the difficulty of the routes and would not really climb something under protected that I was likely to fall on when climbing with someone I don't know much about.
I prefer to do harder and scarier stuff with someone I can trust.
Seems like common sense...
Cheers,
d
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Hawkeye
climber
State of Mine
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Dec 22, 2008 - 06:29pm PT
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its not the climbing that is risky it is hitting the ground.
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TradIsGood
Chalkless climber
the Gunks end of the country
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Dec 22, 2008 - 07:00pm PT
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First year?!!
Most leaders who die do it in their last year.
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Daphne
Trad climber
San Rafael, CA
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Dec 22, 2008 - 09:35pm PT
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very funny Jay
I suppose it really increased your confidence in your safety to have been the one to teach me how to climb. Thanks for being one of the safest climbers I have climbed with-- up to now.
I can only add that this forum is filled with people who will passionately discuss what is the safest and what is the most risk tolerable although they never come into agreement about either one.
As a noob I have seen personally that experience, length of time climbing, and self-confidence don't stop mistakes from being made by those on the sharp end. But I am still around, even with mistakes being made, so maybe those qualities are enough to keep a climber alive.
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Doug Hemken
climber
Madison, WI
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Dec 23, 2008 - 12:38pm PT
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It's true that numbers only tell part of the story. But even a very simplistic probability model can be informative:
If the probability of picking a white ball out of the urn is 1/10,000, then the probability of picking a white ball within the first 350 rounds of play is 34/1,000. Does that sound horribly risky?
How many rounds would you "expect" to play in this game? The average length of play is 9999 picks of the red ball, or 10,000 rounds total. That would be over 27 years of daily play. If you only play 35 rounds per year, the average length of play would be 285 years. Does that sound horribly risky?
If the probability of picking the white ball is 1/20,000, then the average length of play doubles, and you expect to play for 54 years if you play daily. At 35 rounds per year, that stretches to 571 years of occasional play. How risky does that sound?
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tradcragrat
Trad climber
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Dec 23, 2008 - 02:07pm PT
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Consider three scenarios:
1: A friend of a friend of mine was leading a 5.9 layback in yosemite. He got flamed and started running it out. He realized he was too far above his gear to come off, but too pumped to place pro; he had to keep climbing, which, of course, made the situation exponentially more dangerous with each move. By the top he was waaaay off the deck with nothing in between him and the ground. He desperately thrutched his way up the final moves and barely tagged the top jug. (Holy shit)
2a: I soloed a 10d in good control and it felt very easy. I wasn't close to falling off it.
2b. A few weeks later, I was doing a sketchy highball with one pad, and a really bad landing. I barely stuck the crux.It was shorter (30ish feet at the highest) than the other route, but potentially more dangerous?
3. Alex Honnold free solos reg. route half dome (holy shit). He does so in complete control and never feels as if he's about to fall. He's very solid and confident on the route.
I think these three scenarios illustrate that doing "dangerous" climbs effectively is significantly less dangerous than doing "safe" climbs dangerously.
If this Yoho fellow redid his statistics to account for the two categories of Those Who Are On Top of their Sh#t and Those Who Are Most Definitely Not on Top of Their Sh#t, he would find vastly different results.
Cheers.
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dirtineye
Trad climber
the south
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Dec 23, 2008 - 08:43pm PT
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"How many rounds would you "expect" to play in this game? The average length of play is 9999 picks of the red ball, or 10,000 rounds total. That would be over 27 years of daily play."
Didn't you state that there are 9999 red balls and one white one?
If so, I think you'd better re-do your calculations. IF you ever did any to begin with that is.
Do you REALLY think that on average you will NEVER hit the white ball until it's the only one left, which is what you are claiming?
Poser.
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murcy
climber
San Fran Cisco
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Dec 23, 2008 - 09:11pm PT
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you replace the ball each time you pick one, dirt.
good disdain, though!
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survival
Big Wall climber
A Token of My Extreme
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Dec 23, 2008 - 09:16pm PT
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Yoho yahoo...
KISS principle:
Keep
It
Simple
Stupid
I agree with whoever said a few solid techniques that you don't forget are less likely to be screwed up. Too many German knots/words makes me nervous. Too much technical/statistical BS in that article.
I still use the majority of the knots and skills I learned in the mid-seventies. I still climb almost often enough..and so do you Tarbuster! I have climbed with many people that I didn't know well, but prefer to climb with people I know VERY well.
All of my partners are still alive....save a few who passed from non-climbing related causes.
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Jaybro
Social climber
wuz real!
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Dec 23, 2008 - 09:59pm PT
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"-Would you rather die climbing, or knitting?"
Knitting is out, I have a chronic fear of needles. I remember reading the case of a symphonic conductor who fatally, stabbed himself in the heart during a concert. Seems related.
We all make mistakes, have lapses, etc. Increased amount of experience gives you a larger quiver of tools to draw on when you make such a mistake/something goes wrong, etc.
Disclaimer; I've been doing this long enough that I do get lazy; Though I do get complacent, I make an effort to be in the moment at critical times.
I've only been climbing for 45 years and still have a lot to learn...
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Largo
Sport climber
Venice, Ca
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Dec 23, 2008 - 10:07pm PT
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Any crafty person can cook numbers to fit an idea. Statistics are very easily manipulated if they're not normed off somethng pretty objective. Trad climbing is potentially dangerous, but
probably not much more than most other adventure sports.
JL
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Scrunch
Trad climber
Provo, Ut
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Dec 24, 2008 - 01:44am PT
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Time to be a contributor.
Numbers are nice. Climbing is dangerous, and it can be more dangerous depending on who you choose time climb with (or lack thereof) and your own skill set. and an infinite number of other factors.
There are other activities that are more dangerous and less dangerous, respectively. sometimes both.
Climbing may fall within an acceptable risk. It may not. kinda something you have to decide.
This is immaterial, however.
LIFE IS NOT THE FEAR OF DEATH.
Climb if you want, or don't, whatever. But don't make a decision based on a risk assessment extrapolated from data. Or do, but I believe your missing the point. Not of climbing, but of life.
I shudder thinking of existence based on the idea of risk assessment... it'd be like this cubicle with one of those adding machines and a low ceiling with florescent lighting and all you do all day is put numbers into the machine and pull the lever, forever... scares the piss out of me.
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Dec 24, 2008 - 11:49am PT
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"It all comes down to livin' fast or dying slow."
Robert Earl Keen
Sure, climbing is dangerous. Even more so if you drive fast through the rain to get to the crags.
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jbar
Ice climber
Russia with love.
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Dec 24, 2008 - 04:41pm PT
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I'm terrible at saying things but often times I'll hear someone say exactly what I'm thinking. Here's a quote from Joe Tasker that came to mind reading the last couple of posts.
"the risks are only run because one believes the correct calculation has been made of how to avoid them in reaching a worthwile goal. Rather than being suicidal, the climbers I know all love life and fight furiously to hold on to it, and the same restless energy and enthusiasm helps them overcome the problems of everyday life and is transmitted to those around them."
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tradcragrat
Trad climber
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Dec 24, 2008 - 07:36pm PT
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Jbar:
.....werd.
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dirtineye
Trad climber
the south
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Dec 24, 2008 - 08:57pm PT
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Well, maybe I just and blind and stupid, cause I missed the line about with replacement, but I also wonder if it was added later-- HK could probably find out LOL.
BUT, there is still a huge problem with the one a day event as an evaluation of climbing danger.
You can't call the whole day one event, because EVERY TIME you do something on a climb that could result in death, that is an event as far as probability is concerned.
For instance, once a free soloist is high enough to die if he falls, then he's picking that ball ( actually rolling a die with 10,000 sides is a better way to look at it)EVERY TIME he makes a move.
For the trad climber, every rappel counts as one event, so if you do ten raps and build ten anchors and make 5 moves over possibly sketchy death pro, then you have had 25 rolls of the die.
(not sure where the 10,000 number came from, it might be higher or lower)
But at any rate, the point is, you roll that die every time you do something with death potential, not once for the whole day.
Mountaineers have it worse, since things happen to them beyond their control, like killer weather or a snow and ice cornice breaking off and killing the whole party, like happened at alpamanwhatisname in South America a few years back.
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Doug Hemken
climber
Madison, WI
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Dec 26, 2008 - 11:46am PT
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We could think of the probabilities attached to *every* move you make on a climb, and think of the probability distribution as exponential instead of geometric. In fact, we could think of lots of ways to make the probability model more nuanced.
And as several people have pointed out, we can consider the rewards/benefits in addition to the risks.
But my point was a much smaller one, merely about the probabilities themselves. Yoho trots out Dill's old numbers and tells us we should be horrified by them. My point is just that if you accept Dill's numbers at face value - accept them at their worst, even - they don't look that horrifying to me. At the rate I get out climbing, my expected duration of play is a couple of centuries.
Yoho wanted us to look at all those additional conditioning factors. But his discussion of the initial probabilities was so distracting for me, so unnecessarily alarmist, that I was not inclined to read the rest of his article. And those probabilities go straight to the question that Chris posed in his subject line.
To quote from above: "Any crafty person can cook numbers to fit an idea. Statistics are very easily manipulated...." It's true that numbers are sometimes (often?) used in a fast and loose way in public polemics. But then, too, "any crafty person can cook words to fit an idea. Rhetoric is very easily manipulated...."
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Buggs
Trad climber
Eagle River, Alaska
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Dec 26, 2008 - 07:29pm PT
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Good food for thought.
I don't know all that much about many of the topics/questions in the article.
I do know that I love moving over stone in any way, shape, or form.
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RY
Sport climber
Pasadena
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Jan 11, 2009 - 07:15pm PT
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this is from the author Yoho
Each sport has it's own peculiar aesthetic. Olympic lifting participants, for example, I would imagine have to accept the risk of ruining their knees and back if they are serious about it. Climbing as we know has risks, risks that non-climbers can't imagine accepting. This article is meant ONLY to underscore that those risks are impressive if you accept the assumptions about Dill's data that I made in the article. Obviously extrapolating general statistics to individuals is a foolish exercise (or perhaps I should even say an exercise only a fool would undertake).
Rest assured I'm just as crazy as the rest of you: I think Bridwell is a hero and climbing risks are worth it. Some of the duller blades who posted seem to have missed my satire (and maybe even had trouble with my prose).
Interesting: I tried to get this thing published in every North American climbing journal, and (while maybe it really isn't worthy) I think they were afraid of scaring off their clientele.
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Chris Roderick
climber
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Jan 11, 2009 - 11:22pm PT
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Wow, good thing this guy's a doctor and not a statistician.
If you roll a die and have a 1/6 chance of rolling a six, that doesn't mean you are certain to roll a six in six rolls.
Each roll is an independent event, because you didn't roll a six in the first five rolls doesn't mean the six is now "due". It's still a one in six chance on that last roll regardless.
Likewise each climbing "day" is an independent event, just because your belayer didn't drop you the last 200 times doesn't mean he's now more likely to do so.
That being said, there's no such thing as "probability" in real non-quantum life. Either you're destined to die climbing or you're not.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
Monrovia, CA
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Jan 12, 2009 - 01:56am PT
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Largo is right about statistics in general and those in particular gave me a headache; they're completely meaningless.
Then I went in convulsions reading:
"Small plane pilots have roughly the equivalent risks per hour (8.5) as Yosemite trad climbers. These people have been trained and tested exhaustively, their airplanes are subject to extensive maintenance requirements, and what they are doing is acknowledged (by everyone but the pilots themselves!) as very hazardous."
As a commercial pilot and flight instructor I think I can speak for all other flight instructors. Yes, they are trained and tested but one man's "exhaustively" is another man's "oh, that's good enough to pass." More to the point, as soon as that Flight Examiner signs 'em off it is Damn the Torpedoes, Full Speed Ahead! Those first 100 hours after sign off are the most deadly. Then, after scaring the bejeezuz out of themselves (and their spouses) a few times they're usually good for a while. Then they start to think they've got it wired and can start pushing the envelope. Sound familiar? Trouble is you can't test 'em for psychological aptitude. The Armed Forces do, to a point, plus they spend over $1 million training somebody.
This is really just a lot a high-falutin' intellectual tomfoolery. It really boils down to this:
Yous gots your smart fellers and yous gots your fart smellers; some o' dem are lucky and some not so much. - Moe Howard (yeah, that Moe!)
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healyje
Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
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Jan 12, 2009 - 02:28am PT
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Despite being an official "never-has-been who hasn’t really climbed much" and who has been restricted from commenting on "carnage in Eldorado", I still find the good doctor's presentation pretty stacked with personal bias on a lot of fronts. His intention is clearly good, but the results are pretty judgmental as he breezes through anchors, strangers, drugs, belay devices, etc. (though thank god he left out the quality of potential partner's marriages and family life as that really would have winnowed the herd).
All in all, I say he could use the aid of an objective editor familiar with the subject and material. Also, the inset climbing CV is fairly pointless if he's going to get down on climbers with better resumes.
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raymond phule
climber
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Jan 12, 2009 - 03:17am PT
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Jay Wood wrote:
"Or another way:
If you climbed EVERY day from age 16 to age 57 (15,000/365=41 years), you would statistically have 100% chance of dying during that time."
It is a good time to take a critical look at your calculations (or understanding of statistics) if your result in a statistical calculation is that something has a 100% chance to happen.
I believe the correct answer is 63% if you assume that the risk to die are independent.
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Doug Hemken
climber
Madison, WI
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Jan 12, 2009 - 11:45am PT
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Out of curiosity, I looked up some numbers on Devils Tower.
From 1937 through 2006, there were 133,528 recorded climber-days (my sources are Guilmette, Carrier, Gardiner, & Lindsay 2004, and the NPS Devils Tower web site). I have read recently (Pagel's article in the latest R&I, and elsewhere) that there have been 5 climbing fatalities at the Tower.
That would give us a fatality rate of about 3.7/100,000 climber-days, which puts it near the safer end of Dill's estimate of 5 deaths/100,000 climber-days.
Those are the statistics.
The probabilities, then:
Your risk of surviving a day of climbing is 0.99996
Your risk of surviving 35 days of climbing is 0.99865
Your risk of surviving 350 days is 0.98694
Your risk of surviving 41 years of daily climbing is 0.57077
Given a large population of climbers, who are forced to climb daily and who never die of non-climbing complications, the average climbing-life expectancy would be 73.116 years.
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ericz
climber
Ogden, UT
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Jan 13, 2009 - 04:37pm PT
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It would appear,.. there is an excess of anger and confusion in this human world. To be resistant to ideas, concepts that may afford a more balanced movement through this life,.. is simply shortsighted. With that stated, I look forward to 2009,.. and the wonderful energy of moving in the hills. Happy trails to all the dirtbaggers, in body and spirit.
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Lambone
Ice climber
Ashland, Or
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Jan 13, 2009 - 05:21pm PT
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stupid article...hardly readable.
worst Chris Mac post ever. I know you didn't write the article but I still expect more from you...
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Al_T.Tude
Trad climber
Monterey, CA
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Jan 31, 2009 - 05:02pm PT
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Having read the previous 100 posts, my very strong opinions on the issues of partner selection and rigging prowess can be summed up by the following:
"The Roman Basilica is neither. Discuss..."
These immortal words were spoken by Mike Myers portraying the character of Linda Richman, the guest host of the SNL talk show parody "Coffee Talk" originally hosted by Paul Baldwin whom we never meet. Myers based this character on his then mother-in-law.
I hope that this helps to clarify the points made in Dr. Yoho's article and aids in bringing the two camps together.
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