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Karl Baba
Trad climber
Yosemite, Ca
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Topic Author's Original Post - Nov 29, 2008 - 11:26pm PT
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You know how some people are afraid to fly but don't think twice about driving in heavy traffic to the airport? How folks smoke cigarettes and fear terrorists?
It also seem that thing that seem logically prone to happen (like a daisy fall breaking your back or the piece, don't actually turn out as bad as simple math would predict)
So what I'm proposing for those who would collaborate on research, is to explore what accidents actually happen in climbing and what are their cause?
I can think of horribly dangerous things that I've seen totally new climbers do but somehow there must be a God because I don't hear of too many people buying the farm after messing up without proper instruction in their first week climbing. Still, like driving I have to imagine the period of inexperience has significant hazards.
But then once you know where the danger line is, it's easier to approach that line. What hurts and kills experienced climbers? (car accident and heart attacks most likely but we're talking on the crags) My guess is that fatigue and inattention play the most serious role.
Somethings that seem ok really seem to mess people up, like jumaring and rappelling. (but have you been saved by a rappel prussic or do people die rapping for silly reasons?)
I'm not going to define the boundaries of the topic too much. Let's see what you have to say.
Peace
karl
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MH2
climber
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Nov 29, 2008 - 11:57pm PT
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"(but have you been saved by a rappel prussic or do people die rapping for silly reasons?)"
A Squamish incident: guy was rapping and feet cut away, he threw out both hands in front of his face to save his head from cracking into the rock, lost control of the rappel and was badly injured though not killed
A different sort of near-miss that happened to me: freed through overhang listed in guide as aid, arrived at anchor too exuberant to think, started to lean back and caught myself just in time before weighting an imaginary clip
So, 2 situations I try to look out for
a sudden unexpected slip and
too much happiness leading to inattention
I almost never use a prusik on rappel, though.
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TradIsGood
Chalkless climber
the Gunks end of the country
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Nov 30, 2008 - 12:01am PT
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Nice, Karl.
I once read that people would pay more for flight insurance against getting killed on an airplane flight as a result of terrorists, than getting killed on an airplane flight.
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Tarbuster
climber
right here, right now
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Nov 30, 2008 - 12:09am PT
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"But then once you know where the danger line is, it's easier to approach that line. What hurts and kills experienced climbers?"
Getting old, crusty, slow with the reflexes and cratering, off of mundane stuff.
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TGT
Social climber
So Cal
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Nov 30, 2008 - 12:33am PT
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About the time I started climbing (69-70) I also bought a motorcycle. Now being young and pennyless my instruction for both came from the even then hopelessly outdated, (even then) LACO library system. Rubifat and Terray were not much help in the instruction column, strong on inspiration though.
I was a bit more fourtunate on the motorcycle side and it has application to climbing. I picked up a book written by a British motorcycle racing champion who had managed to survive the sport. Along with practical tips he kept track of the statistics and came up with a few conclusions that are applicable.
In the first 5000 miles you ARE going to crash and the outcome is primarily luck although following a few principles and techniques will greatly increase your chances of diminishing the negative consiquences.
Once you get past a certain point in experience and competence, the chances of dire consequence diminish significantly.
However, after a certain point (100k miles or so) complacency sets in and the chances of killing yourself once again increases.
I've seen this plenty of times with more experienced climbers. The half worn thru belay locker, the "good enough" anchor. Been guilty of it plenty of times myself.
Back to the "theoretical versus real" If you are opperating in the "leader never falls" sphere most of the acutraments do fall into the "theoretical". You will probably never test them.
Opperating in the "falls are part of the process" sphere, it all better work as expected, every time.
This said with the realization that for most of us that transition between spheres takes place somewhere in the 5.9-5.10 range.
Old quote from my pa, although he used it in a completely different context.
"Familiarity breeds contempt"
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Ghost
climber
A long way from where I started
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Nov 30, 2008 - 12:59am PT
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This is a great topic. Before going into personal-experience mode, though, it is worth pointing out that there is a tremendous storehouse of information on this subject in the many decades of Accidents In North American Mountaineering. Probably similar material in Europe.
There is a lot of obvious stuff that will undoubtedly be brought up, but one thing that isn't so obvious is what Andy (MH2) mentioned above: exuberance.
A few years back I took a friend ice climbing in the Rockies (the real Rockies. The ones in Canada.) He was a 5.12 sport climber, but no gumby. That is, he'd put up plenty of routes, was used to rapelling into difficult places, was thoughtful, not arrogant, willing to learn... Anyway, after a few days of easy things, he led a pitch with a real free-hanging curtain -- the third or fourth pitch of whatever we were climbing. When I got up to where he was belaying, he was totally ecstatic. Just like Andy after he freed the aid roof.
So we traversed a few meters of easy ground to the descent station (a big tree), tied the ropes together, and threaded them through the rap setup. He went first. For no reason that I can pin down, I took a look at his setup -- and screamed at him just as he was about to step back over 500 feet of air.
He'd threaded only one of the ropes through his rap device. If I hadn't looked, he'd have died. And maybe I would have as well, trying to down-solo 500 ft.
Anyway, the cause was his exuberance at having pulled off the most difficult lead of his life. And it really was just luck that I checked his setup.
D
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Karl Baba
Trad climber
Yosemite, Ca
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Topic Author's Reply - Nov 30, 2008 - 01:18am PT
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Walleye, that guy was probably a whacko.
"started to lean back and caught myself just in time before weighting an imaginary clip"
I've stopped a couple people from that over the years.
Here's a fall scenario that has happened to me and my friend just broke his ankle doing this:
You are doing some cruxy moves and your hand is finally getting to touch the jug that ends the difficulty. You lose awareness of you foot contact and body position in anticipation of the salvation and your foot skids and off you go.
Stay aware, aware, aware of everything all the time. Crashed in the talus on a descent and banged my elbow last week. Random or do we let our guard down easier when we're not on the sharp end or doing hard moves?
Peace
karl
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nick d
Trad climber
nm
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Nov 30, 2008 - 01:51am PT
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I fear rockfall and sharp edges the most.
So I wear a helmet and climb on double ropes.
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maculated
Trad climber
San Luis Obispo, CA
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Nov 30, 2008 - 01:59am PT
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Dan Millman in, "The Warrior Athlete" contends that injury happens when you are not in full focus. I've found that to be 100% accurate.
Driving home from Pinnacles tonight we almost hit this big, black boar. My partner was driving and he was really watching. I didn't see or even understand what it was until the moment had passed.
Pretty much the same story when you injure yourself. I used to get cocky. "Man, I am really charging this trail" and then I would invariably roll an ankle. Now I know that thought is a precursor to injury. I very rarely do that anymore.
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Porkchop_express
Trad climber
thats what she said...
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Nov 30, 2008 - 02:13am PT
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i am pretty new to leading so this topic interests me...also I saw my wife ledge out on a 5.8 and break her ankle and then recover to the point of being able to get back on the sharp end.
coaching her/psyching her up to get past the irrational fears without neglecting the very rational ones made me think a lot about this.
based on all of that, my biggest worry is getting the rope behind my leg or slipping on something ledgy.
I am beginning to realize instances of irrational fear and then persist without temerity-- in many instances irrational fear can make the actual danger increase. I noticed this especially on slabs and liebacks where commitment makes or breaks the sequence of moves.
I think once the comfort level increases to the point of complacency when you no longer are in tune with the various fears. Recognizing a fear as being irrational is necessary to overcome it and deal with it and subsequently sift out valid concerns to then address.
Fear sounds a little strong; I dont mean horror or terror, just that red flags (concern) should go off and you should be always running through the checklist ok-ing the issues in question.
I wouldnt say that my theories are "right" but that's where I am right now. Maybe this approach will keep me out of the "solid 5.10 leader club" for a while, but when I do reach that level I will really be solid mentally as well as physically, through and through.
I hope this wasnt too disjointed or irrelevant. Sometimes I forget what the question was by the end of my raving...
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Dr. Rock
Ice climber
http://tinyurl.com/4oa5br
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Nov 30, 2008 - 02:46am PT
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You do not get any second chances in this sport, not like mtn biking or kayaking.
So you need to study well, the consequences at hand.
A river has spots where you can take it easy and screw around for a while, but a slab needs constant attention, I am finding out.
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scooter
climber
fist clamp
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Nov 30, 2008 - 03:57am PT
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Full length daisy fall onto a bathook in limestone. Hook held, no breaks of bones, rock, gear.
P
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happiegrrrl
Trad climber
New York, NY
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Nov 30, 2008 - 09:13am PT
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I had just followed someone up High Exposure and we were rapping down. He suggested we simu-rap, and so we started to set up. I was a little nervous about the idea, as I'd never even considered doing it before, and remember being focused on understanding the issue of counterweighting each other.
So we were talking about that while setting up.
And I, not paying full attention where I should have been, threaded my device on auto-pilot(pushed rope through both slots but not around the carabiner). I had on a prussik, as I do 99% of the time(one of my sacrifices to the climbing gods, I say to anyone who give me crap about it), and I guess that would have saved the both of our lives had he not seen/mentioned that I'd set up wrong.
I still get a queazy feeling in my stomach thinking about it. He was really nonchalant about the whole thing, which at the time made it all the more mortifying. I was glad of my prussik habit, but it really didn't make the f up "okay."
It felt like the climbing gods were looking at me, shaking their heads, and tut tutting amongst themselves. And the realization that it was only luck, really, that made the difference. Quite humbling. But anyway - this incident is why I get a little irritated when people give me sh#t about using a prussik all the time.
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Karl Baba
Trad climber
Yosemite, Ca
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Topic Author's Reply - Nov 30, 2008 - 09:58am PT
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I think this is going to be a valuable thread. Some great contributions so far.
I think TGT raises some great points. Don't miss his post.
Here's the aac links for the accident book
http://www.americanalpineclub.org/pages/page/72
They probably need to make money by having this book for sale but it might be worth aspiring to the day when somebody with money whose life gets saved by some climbing wisdom (or his heirs if he lost it) could subsidize putting the Journal online (maybe a year after publication) for free. That might save some people in the end.
PCEx raises a great point about being flipped over by a rope between your legs. Most instructional sources fail to emphasize it but, particularly on slabby rock and aid climbs, and certainly when you are to the left or right of your last pro, it's essential to get the rope from between your legs so you don't trip over it upside down.
When I first started leading, I had myself trained on hard slaps to skip my leg over the rope when falling. It took me so long to figure that one out and I've flipped upside down on at least a half dozen leader falls.
Peace
Karl
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Majid_S
Mountain climber
Bay Area
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Nov 30, 2008 - 11:40am PT
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166+ climbers were killed in European Alps due to avalanche related accident followed by over 34+ climbers who died in Himalayas from Jan 08- Nov-30-08.At least 16 + climbers where killed in North America, almost half fell off from the end of the line while rapping.
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JohnRoe
Trad climber
State College, PA
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Nov 30, 2008 - 11:43am PT
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Karl wrote, "have you been saved by a rappel prussic?"
Maybe. I was leading "Conns East" at Seneca on one of those hot, humid summer days. Probably not hydrated enough or sick in some way. Anyway, as I brought my partner up p1 I noticed that my hands were starting to cramp really badly. They would get into this claw-like position from which the fingers couldn't be moved. The cramps lasted several seconds, during which it was hard to grip, and pulling hard on the fingers made them worse.
The second pitch begins with a few layback moves and after a couple of attempts it became clear that my hands weren't going to let me lead it that day. So we set a rappel to retreat. Somewhere on the way down the cramps started again in my brake hand (or maybe both hands? I don't remember for sure). Despite my efforts I had to let go the line and the prusik held me until the spasm passed.
I don't know what would have happened without the backup knot. Maybe fear for my life would have forced the muscles, which it seemed that I couldn't move, to hold on until I could get a rest somehow. I do know, though, that I was *really* grateful for the prusik that day!
Peace
JohnR
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Karl Baba
Trad climber
Yosemite, Ca
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Topic Author's Reply - Nov 30, 2008 - 12:08pm PT
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"At least 16 + climbers where killed in North America, almost half fell off from the end of the line while rapping."
Thanks. it might be worth discussing some procedural method to facilitate tying knots in the rope ends but that made it tough to space out and let the rope end get out of your control before it's time to pull the rope (and then get your rope stuck)
When I'm concerned with rapping off the rope, I like tie two individual knots so they can rotate independently and not create a big tangle
peace
Karl
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MH2
climber
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Nov 30, 2008 - 12:35pm PT
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"166+ climbers were killed in European Alps due to avalanche related accident" Jan thru Nov 2008
Of the approx 150 people I've climbed with for at least a full day over the years, 4 out of the 5 who I know have died climbing died when something fell on them. Often that possibility 'comes with the territory', meaning snow and ice in high places.
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Majid_S
Mountain climber
Bay Area
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Nov 30, 2008 - 12:39pm PT
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Karl
Stop in RC and do a search in their I&A. I am sure I posted plenty of accident report there this year.Two of the most interesting ones were when two experienced climbers both in North America fell from one side of the rope when they accidentally placed the end of the rope marking as the half marking on the anchor and came up short on side of the rope and fell to their death.
I am guessing, rope Mfgs are looking in to removing such markings on ropes.
Majid
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Dwain
Trad climber
Apple Valley, California
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Nov 30, 2008 - 12:39pm PT
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There is some danger in anything we do.
My fear is, if I stop climbing, I would be in danger of
dieing of boredom.
Dwain
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Majid_S
Mountain climber
Bay Area
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Nov 30, 2008 - 12:49pm PT
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MH2
In the 10 years that I have been monitoring climbing accidents, I have never seen so many alpine related fatalities like what I seen in 2008.In Himalayas, the K2 and the Ama Dablan incident took the lives of so many climbers and both were avalanche related.
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Hardly Visible
climber
Port Angeles
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Nov 30, 2008 - 12:59pm PT
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“Getting old, crusty, slow with the reflexes and cratering, off of mundane stuff.”
Jeez Roy are ya talking about anyone we know?
I might add getting complacent about your doings, lulled by the fact that you’ve been climbing brilliantly for sometime now and haven’t had a fall or misstep in ages. Don’t let yourself forget that climbing is serious stuff and remember to give it the focus and attention it deserves.
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Domingo
Trad climber
El Portal, CA
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Nov 30, 2008 - 01:04pm PT
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"the end of the rope marking as the half marking on the anchor and came up short on side of the rope and fell to their death."
Whoa... on my rope the marks are different anyway, but it's quite a state of mental fatigue to not see the end fifteen to twenty feet away (I'm guessing that's what happened?).
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berghold
Trad climber
Calistoga
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Nov 30, 2008 - 01:28pm PT
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While leading through roof moves on Direct South Face of Moosedog Tower (popular Indian Cove 5.9 route) I used a long sling to reduce rope drag. When I fell at the lip expecting a soft catch, I had unknowingly placed my foot through the sling (sloppy footwork beneath the roof ,where I couldn't see my feet.) Result: The piece held, my foot was caught, I swung straight over backwards (high velocity pendulum) upside down, slamming the back of my head on the slab 8 feet below. The force was enough to crack the helmet shell and I was knocked unconsious for about 30 seconds. I woke up hanging upside down wondering WTF !?!? My foot was still caught in the sling! After extricating myself and recovering I was luckily able to resume climbing. Low commitment route, lack of focus, and complacency that the gear would hold resulted in a harsh lesson in physics. Ouch. That said, my worst fall ever could have been a lot worse. . .
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Impaler
Trad climber
Munich
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Nov 30, 2008 - 01:33pm PT
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Yeah, I totally agree that the inawareness and letting your guard down cauases most accidents, deadly or not. One day in june this year I soloed a couple of routes at the Leap before lunch having never before soloed that much. Then I decided that I was done and ran back to the car. On the flat part of the trail 1 minute away from the car I rolled my ankle so hard that it is still recoveringin November. The sounds that it made when I rolled it were horrendous. I knew instantly as it happend that I just lost my concentration and was more upset about that than about the ankle itself. Next time it could be my life...
Vlad
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Steve Grossman
Trad climber
Seattle, WA
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Nov 30, 2008 - 01:34pm PT
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Karl- do you have any educational background in math or physics?
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Karl Baba
Trad climber
Yosemite, Ca
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Topic Author's Reply - Nov 30, 2008 - 02:23pm PT
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I had to take some very basic math and physics at UC davis as a freshman/sophomore.
Safe to say it has receded to the intuitive level by now.
Theoretically, I'm not competent to comment on highly geeky issues of physics and economics on Supertopo.
Actually, I find that I'm not as wrong as I should be.
Peace
Karl
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Karl Baba
Trad climber
Yosemite, Ca
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Topic Author's Reply - Nov 30, 2008 - 02:25pm PT
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exactly Vlad. I can solo all day but trip on the approach or descent trail.
The #1 safety skill in climbing and in life we can develop is constant mindfulness. Doesn't mean you have to think all the time, but to have the attention span to be present in the moment is the quality that keeps your ass safe
Peace
Karl
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Steve Grossman
Trad climber
Seattle, WA
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Nov 30, 2008 - 03:16pm PT
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Climbing is always dangerous whether it is a step ladder or the big stone. That awareness doesn't have to lead to fear or mind puckering, but rather to purposeful and balanced presence of mind in assessing risks as they continually present themselves. Traditional climbing is all about meeting those challenges with skill and technique to yield a satisfying result.
Fortunately, it usually takes several errors in judgement to get you killed but recognizing the nuances of your exposure is crucial to survival. Wishful thinking and immortal judgement really don't accomplish much.
The Litany Against Fear ala Frank Herbert is also useful in a pinch when judgement seems to be eroding.
I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear.
I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing.
Only I will remain.
Think clearly, act purposefully.....
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nick d
Trad climber
nm
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Nov 30, 2008 - 04:10pm PT
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My first thought when I see mention of simul-rappelling is: See you in the obituaries!
What is up with that? Even as a little kid I realized rapping was by far the most dangerous part of climbing. Why do something that can't but help up the danger factor?
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Chris2
Trad climber
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Nov 30, 2008 - 04:17pm PT
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Only should be used when in a rush due to bad weather, daylight disappearing, injury...etc.
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Domingo
Trad climber
El Portal, CA
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Nov 30, 2008 - 04:17pm PT
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"What is up with that? Even as a little kid I realized rapping was by far the most dangerous part of climbing. Why do something that can't but help up the danger factor? "
If it saves you time in inclement weather, it might save your life. Therefore, it may be wise to practice in more controlled situations.
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Chris2
Trad climber
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Nov 30, 2008 - 05:10pm PT
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We are only born with two fears, heights and loud noises. The rest is learned.
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jmap
climber
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Nov 30, 2008 - 06:49pm PT
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Well, I'll answer from the perspective of adventure programming.
In adventure programming, we speak of two types of danger; actual and perceived.
Generally, we want to keep the perceived level high, and the actual risk low.
It's interesting in your examples of fear that each comparison has one example that falls under perceived, and one example that falls under actual. In each case, the perceived component elicits a stronger reaction that the actual.
But back to adventure programming. When we plan trips, we look to set an appropriate level of perceived danger--a level that will challenge each person without shutting them down. To accomplish this, We use the concept of green zone, yellow zone, and red zone. Green zone is comfortable and functioning, yellow zone is uncomfortable but still functioning, and red zone is uncomfortable and not functioning. The yellow zone is the growth zone and it's always our goal.
We mitigate actual risk by having appropriate activities, led by instructors with appropriate skillsets, at appropriate venues.
I'll use top-rope climbing as an example. It's an appropiate activity because it challenges people. We look for instructors who have demonstrated mastery of anchor systems (ground and top), belay techniques, and the soft skills to follow "challenge by choice." Our venues are areas where multiple ropes can be set with as low of an implact as possible to the area nd its users and feature a wide enough range of grades so that anyone who puts forth a reasonable amount of effort can dinish the day feeling successful. Never underestimate the power of a 5.2.
If you follow the above (especially challenge by choice) when setting up climbing trips, it's really pretty safe, physically and emotionally. I've never had an injury in a group I've led climbing. But safety relies on people setting up good trips using the above principles, and I think this applies whether you're leading a group of 10 ajudicated boys or you and a buddy are going to climb something tall.
Sure, you can do everything right and still die, but I would guess over 99% of climbing accidents could have been prevented by the climber following some realy basic safety tenets. Knot the ends of your rope, use a prussic backup, clip or clove the anchor, use ground anchors, teach belay/lowering skills in a gym or low angle slab, on and on.
What I'm trying to say in so (way too many) words is that the actual danger in climbing is not in climbing, it's in climbers.
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Mighty Hiker
Social climber
Vancouver, B.C.
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Nov 30, 2008 - 07:35pm PT
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There is some interesting work going into the sociology of avalanche accidents, at least for backcountry skiers. It suggests that the risk increases significantly if:
 There are both men and women in the party, particularly young men and young women. (Boys will be stupid boys.)
The party is larger. (Lowest common denominator "decision-making".)
The people involved know each other less well. (Lack of unity of purpose/strategy.)
This probably applies to other groups and environments, although avalanche risk assessment and route finding tend to be more formalized.
29 climbing/mountaineering people that I knew have died since I began climbing. Of the 15 who I would say were friends, not just acquaintances - that is, people I'd climbed and skied with - 8 or more died in avalanches. Out of the 29, 12 died in avalanches. Two died of cancer, two in car crashes, one in a helicopter crash, and one (Daryl) fell out of a tree. Eight died in climbing or rappelling falls.
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Majid_S
Mountain climber
Bay Area
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By Constance Dillon (Contact)
Originally published 03:19 p.m., November 30, 2008
Updated 04:44 p.m., November 30, 2008
A 33-year-old-woman fell to her death while climbing Mt. Shasta on Friday, Siskiyou County Sheriff’s Department spokeswoman Susan Gravenkamp said Sunday.
The woman and two men were making their first attempt to climb Mt. Shasta. All three were from out of the area, Gravenkamp said
The trio were on the Avalanche Gulch route, on the southwest side of Mt. Shasta, when the woman fell about 8:30 a.m., Gravenkamp said.
The Avalanche Gulch route is at an elevation of 11,300 feet.
The woman slipped and fell an estimated 600 to 1,500 feet, hitting several rock outcroppings, Gravenkamp said
When the two men reached her, they found she had suffered head injuries, was not breathing and had no pulse. They attempted to resuscitate her, but she did not respond to CPR, Gravenkamp said.
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pk_davidson
Trad climber
Albuquerque, NM
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Note the often common thread among the near misses:
Partners checking partners.
Our mantra: doubled back, through it all, properly rigged ?
Climb on.
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gooth
climber
San Francisco
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There was a fascinating article in the New Yorker magazine about how something as simple as a checklist can make complicated procedures much safer. Consider what happens in an ICU:
"A decade ago, Israeli scientists published a study in which engineers observed patient care in I.C.U.s for twenty-four-hour stretches. They found that the average patient required a hundred and seventy-eight individual actions per day, ranging from administering a drug to suctioning the lungs, and every one of them posed risks. Remarkably, the nurses and doctors were observed to make an error in just one per cent of these actions—but that still amounted to an average of two errors a day with every patient."
With the addition of a simple checklist, they found the rates of simple errors went down by a huge margin. The idea isn't exactly new, either. Checklists have been a staple for flying and they've definitely made things safer:
"Instead, they came up with an ingeniously simple approach: they created a pilot’s checklist, with step-by-step checks for takeoff, flight, landing, and taxiing ... With the checklist in hand, the pilots went on to fly the Model 299 a total of 1.8 million miles without one accident."
The point is, rappelling and many other things we do in climbing is pretty much a series of actions that much be done in sequence. Maybe we would all benefit if we instituted an internal checklist and stuck to it .. I'm sure many of us do.
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2007/12/10/071210fa_fact_gawande
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PRRose
climber
Boulder
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I have been saved by a prussik during rappelling.
It was my first year climbing after having completed an AMC course. The course taught rappelling using a body rap as well as with a biner brake. I rapped off a small but overhung cliff with a body rap; as I descended, the rope ran up under my shirt and I lost control due to either pain or surprise. The prussik backup kept me from unwinding from the rope and plunging.
I doubt that there are very many climbers attempting a body rap these days. It was certainly the last time I used one.
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Moof
Big Wall climber
A cube at my soul sucking job in Oregon
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Micro-cracks will kill us all!
My personal frustration are those who freak out over being brought up on a solid body belay, but don't give a second thought to belaying you off a 3 piece anchor behind an expando crumbling tuft flake.
Dogma trumps phsyics/science/engineering every time...
Way too many folks don't even know how much a kN is (hint: about a climber with a rack on). Way fewer understand what WLL means, and most want to add an extra safety factor even after you've explained it to them.
I feel dumb for being just as careful belaying my smoker friends as my non-smoker friends. Sort of like re-arranging deck chairs on the Titanic...
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Zetedog
Trad climber
PGH, PA
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Two completely incongruent thoughts:
1) When in B-School - I read a white paper that was called something like "the complacency curve". This guy had studied a number of higher risk occupations - open water fishing, highline electrical work, skyscraper construction, etc, and had found 3 concentration of accidents - based upon the timeline of each user - that was consistent across all of these jobs
a) after 3 months to under 14 months - people are generally less supervised, but have enough instruction to be dangerous - their training applies to certain situations, and they don't know enough to realize when the circumstances are different
b) around 3 years - bad practices catch up - whether taught bad practices or bad practices were never corrected, there was a spike in accidents
c) - 5 - 7 years - complacency sets in, large spike in accidents
The remedy that lowered these in all tasks as constant retraining and re-evaluation of techniques.
2) The human brain is really bad at calculating / handling risk - this been shown in many studies, many of which boil down to scenarios like this -
a)You win a contest - for $500. Before accepting the prize you get the chance to flip a coin to either double your money, or get zero. Which do you chose?
b)Two weeks later - you get fined by the IRS for $500. the agent feels frisky - and offers you a choice - pay $500 or flip a coin to have you either pay 1,000 or 0.
Most people choose differently between scenario a and b. You should be indifferent between flipping a coin or $500 (.5*0 + .5*1000 = 500), but people will rationalize away at why they are choosing differently.
ToddE.
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tdk
climber
puhoynix
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Then there's the just plain old dumbness factor. Like leading a slab-to-vertical climb near one's limit with a novice belayer, falling on the vertical and busting an ankle on the slab below when the belayer doesn't catch you cleanly. Hurt like crazy, six months out of action, and a traumatized belayer who felt terrible even though I was the idiot who put her in the situation. Dumb.
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Tarbuster
climber
right here, right now
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Do they first drill pilot holes for those fat screws???
Yow...'glad you are better now.
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Karl Baba
Trad climber
Yosemite, Ca
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Topic Author's Reply - Dec 1, 2008 - 07:34pm PT
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Must resist "screwed" joke
;-)
Karl
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Clint Cummins
Trad climber
SF Bay area, CA
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ToddE,
I liked your timeline on accidents.
As for the other one:
> 2) The human brain is really bad at calculating / handling risk - this been shown in many studies, many of which boil down to scenarios like this -
> a)You win a contest - for $500. Before accepting the prize you get the chance to flip a coin to either double your money, or get zero. Which do you chose?
> b)Two weeks later - you get fined by the IRS for $500. the agent feels frisky - and offers you a choice - pay $500 or flip a coin to have you either pay 1,000 or 0.
> Most people choose differently between scenario a and b. You should be indifferent between flipping a coin or $500 (.5*0 + .5*1000 = 500), but people will rationalize away at why they are choosing differently.
Actually, you should be indifferent only if the way you value wealth is linear. Say you start with wealth W in both situations and your utility function of wealth is U(w):
a) U(W+500) vs. [U(W) + U(W+1000)]/2
b) U(W-500) vs. [U(W) + U(W-1000)]/2
All the same if U(w) is linear; not the same otherwise.
A simple example for (a) of nonlinear is if you need the $500 to buy a plane ticket to escape Rwanda; $0 leaves you in town to get shot.
Similar for (b), say -$500 removes your ability to buy the plane ticket; you need to flip the coin for your only chance of getting out of town.
The standard in economics is that U(w) is a convex/decreasing function like log(w) or sqrt(w). This is the basis for such phenomina as risk aversion and insurance.
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Karl Baba
Trad climber
Yosemite, Ca
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Topic Author's Reply - Dec 1, 2008 - 08:12pm PT
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Awesome contributions by so many people.
Waking up to things that can hurt us can protect us. Let's never forget what we don't know and also not forget what we used to know.
I know sometimes I've been soloing something like the arches that I've climbed many dozen times and while I'm mindful, I just might be a bit too casual. Always got to keep the mind in check.
Peace
Karl
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Zetedog
Trad climber
PGH, PA
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Clint -
I think your actually arguing the point that I was making - EUT suggestions people make risk aversion choices based solely on the individuals perceived curvature of their utility function, and where they are on that curve (diminishing marginal utility, I think). The risk/payoff doesn't change regardless of their function, it only defines their preference to risk aversion.
As a trader - I also know that it dictates my behavior - and is also a big reason why we are in the economic mess that we are currently in.
As for the timeline - I emailed my prof. to see if he can forward that it to me - I may be slightly off on those times - but I took note of that pretty closely recognizing the relationship to many things such as climbing that I do.
ToddE.
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TradIsGood
Chalkless climber
the Gunks end of the country
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ToddE,
I got Clint's explanation. It is well accepted. Game theorists will even show that a person's utility function can be measured with enough input.
It does not agree with you at all. In either scenario, your utility function leads to the same choice regardless of the shape of U. In your scenarios and your utility function, the person *should* be indifferent, but that is because your utility function is linear with respect to dollars.
Clint's example explains the success of lotteries. I don't mind losing dollars, one at a time, so long as the remote payoff is large. That single dollar each time does not hurt me, but the million bucks I might win dramatically changes mah lahf!
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