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rockermike
Trad climber
Berkeley
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Topic Author's Original Post - Aug 4, 2017 - 06:46pm PT
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Interesting argument though my first question is where do the prognosticators think the juice for 300,000,000 vehicles will come from. But anyway take a look
https://shift.newco.co/amp/p/38b843bd4fe0
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ms55401
Trad climber
minneapolis, mn
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not so long ago, one could get a V8
now V6 or even inline 6 are rare
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rockermike
Trad climber
Berkeley
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Topic Author's Reply - Aug 4, 2017 - 07:26pm PT
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Yea... but not so long ago I remember reading about peak oil and the collapse of civilization. Sometimes the best of them get it wrong. ha
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Captain...or Skully
climber
Boise, ID
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Talk without an aim or action is like masturbation.
Have a nice time with that.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Al Gore just ain't up to that sort of heavy lifting.
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rottingjohnny
Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
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The wiki article states that at some point extracting oil will not be profitable and nations will cut back on oil usage slowing economic growth...
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mouse from merced
Trad climber
The finger of fate, my friends, is fickle.
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Who will then provide oil for the lamps of China?
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rockermike
Trad climber
Berkeley
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Topic Author's Reply - Aug 6, 2017 - 04:58am PT
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Did anyone read the article? I see some flaws in his reasoning but ztill interesting. In short...the world will move quickly to self-driving electric cars. He doesn't discuss where all that electricity will come from.... but that's another thread. :)
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Adventurer
Mountain climber
Virginia
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Recently, Volvo announced that after 2019 the company will no longer manufacture gasoline or diesel powered cars. All Volvo cars thereafter will be fully electric.
Of course, it will take many more years for all other manufacturers to follow suit and to phase out all gas powered cars. BUT, it will happen!
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drF
Trad climber
usa
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Not in my lifetime.
Definitely not in yours;-)
Third world just getting a real taste for it. Vast world supply.
Planetary environmental issues will come to a head before dwindling oil supplies
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hobo_dan
Social climber
Minnesota
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Something has to spin the generators. All of the hydro in the U.S. is already built. Peak Uranium is 40 years out at present rates of consumption. Solar and Wind are the only areas of growth. Coal vs. Natural gas is in a dogfight with NG replacing Coal in retrofitted plants. Regardless, I don't see the transition going without a really big boost to the grid.
Here's the Volvo link:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/05/business/energy-environment/volvo-hybrid-electric-car.html
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hooblie
climber
from out where the anecdotes roam
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wind powered grinders feeding solar repaving machines without fresh tar?
how many batteries to ship our cardboard to china to be refashioned into cardboard?
no contrails behind battery powered airliners! ... just how far away is hawaii in post oil terms?
the world gets big again, plastic less ubiquitous. these ARE the good old days, other than our carbon stomp to the planet's neck
... and from my great grandma to (other people's) great great grandkids on the ground today,
to think that i laid eyes on roughly speaking every generation to participate in
the great carbon conflagration of the late, late holocene. it's remarkable
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Adventurer
Mountain climber
Virginia
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I think hobo-dan is correct and I agree that there are many more uses for gas and diesel that will continue for decades to come. However, it is clear that we will see a major transition from gas/diesel powered cars to all electric in the next twenty years or so. This transition will definitely impact oil production and retail sales which in turn will also impact oil producing nations.
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Craig Fry
Trad climber
So Cal.
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Solar Power is now the cheapest power to build.
zero new coal, oil or nuclear power plants are being constructed in this country
this is one reason there is Koch Bro war on solar, it's sinking their obscene profits
you can power your electric car off a roof top solar array,
store the power in batteries and transfer it to the battery in your car at night
as noted above, petroleum products will always have a demand
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zBrown
Ice climber
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ol is ol unless of course it's detergent
but clearly all the electricity will come from the Hoover dam and/or ElectricLadyLand - i got this from a guy who knows a guy who works there
Electricity is a secondary energy source, meaning it is generated from the conversion of primary sources of energy, such as fossil fuels (coal, natural gas and oil), nuclear power and renewable sources (wind, hydro, solar, geothermal).
Make electricity great again.*
* I receive no royalties from China
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clinker
Trad climber
Santa Cruz, California
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I see some flaws in his reasoning but ztill interesting.
The way the Russians produce oil, they will never run out.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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you can power your electric car off a roof top solar array,
store the power in batteries and transfer it to the battery in your car at night
Do you know one person who could afford to put those batteries in their home?
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clinker
Trad climber
Santa Cruz, California
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Al
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monolith
climber
state of being
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Do you know one person who could afford to put those batteries in their home?
Yes, quite a few. They are even being included in some solar bundles now.
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hobo_dan
Social climber
Minnesota
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Talk is cheap But to build an array and hook up the car and then commute every day? Get it on- let the experiment begin! I hope it works.
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Jon Beck
Trad climber
Oceanside
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Transferring from battery to battery is senseless, what we will see is charge stations where we work charging off panels over the parking lots. Walmart has panels over lots already. Range for electric has risen from 50 miles in the days of lead acid conversions, up to hundreds of miles with lithium ions technology. maybe a swappable battery pack so you can charge one at home while you drive the other, sort of like a cordless drill. The original Tesla battery pack was actually built from cordless drill batteries.
Charging from the grid is still way more efficient than driving an internal combustion engine. Under ideal driving conditions the ICE is about 20% efficient. Get in traffic and it drops considerably.
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rottingjohnny
Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
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Mammoth has a charging station now... I can hear it now..." I forgot to plug the car in .. I'll be late for work.."
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Jon Beck
Trad climber
Oceanside
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There is a proposal for a pumped storage facility on the south side of JTNP at the old Kaiser mine
http://www.desertsun.com/story/tech/science/energy/2016/11/22/eagle-mountain-hydropower-gets-boost-nextera/94082674/
California already gets 26 percent of its electricity from renewable sources, and utilities are required to hit 50 percent by 2030. But there's a problem: Solar and wind farms can't be turned on and off like coal- and gas-fired power plants can, and they don't always generate energy when it's needed. Most solar farms, for instance, go offline when the sun goes down, just as people get home from work and start turning on lights and appliances. Strong winds often blow in the middle of the night, when electricity demand is low.
That's where the 1,300-megawatt Eagle Mountain project would come in.
The Eagle Mountain area, which is surrounded on three sides by Joshua Tree National Park, used to be the site of an iron mine — and it still has four open mining pits as a result. Eagle Crest wants to pump two of those pits full of groundwater. When nearby solar or wind farms generate more electricity than homes and businesses need, the excess energy would be used to pump water uphill, from the lower pit to the upper pit. During times when energy demand exceeds supply, water would flow downhill from the upper pit to the lower pit, turning turbines and generating electricity.
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matty
Trad climber
under the sea
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California already gets 26 percent of its electricity from renewable sources
I did not research this particular quote but often times this type of figure is arrived at by assuming that all renewable resources in the state are running at 100%...probably never the case.
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fear
Ice climber
hartford, ct
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Battery/Storage technology is where it's at IMO...
There is no problem with transforming various energies into electricity. There are endless supplies of such clean energy on Earth, the problem is how to transfer and store that energy in a compact portable manner. A tank of gasoline still beats any battery known to man.
Big oil will never 'die' as it's used for many things besides burning but it will play a much smaller role in this mythical future.
Assuming we don't kill each other off first....
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okay, whatever
climber
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"A tank of gasoline still beats any battery known to man" is still true, alas. Mankind will eventually make the transition to other energy sources, but I don't expect to see that transition in a significant way, in my lifetime. But kudos to those out there trying to wean themselves, and others, off of petroleum as an energy source... it has to happen, in the long run. I live in a small basement apartment in Virginia, and have both heat and air conditioning, but I seldom use them, because this little place mostly stays on an even temperature keel without heat or AC. But of course I do use electricity, particularly for light on winter evenings, not to mention the computer I am typing this on! I also haven't owned a car since 2008. I don't say these things to praise myself at all, but rather to remind everyone that it isn't all that hard to have a smaller "energy footprint".
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Dingus McGee
Social climber
Where Safety trumps Leaving No Trace
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Its off the roof and into the car
the Zenn has no gas motor
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rottingjohnny
Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
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The dishwasher at Toms Place is working on a car that runs off of nuclear waste...Death to big oil...
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rockermike
Trad climber
Berkeley
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Topic Author's Reply - Aug 7, 2017 - 08:23pm PT
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Dingus, what do those panels do to your miles per gallon?
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Dingus McGee
Social climber
Where Safety trumps Leaving No Trace
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Dingus, what do those panels do to your miles per gallon?
I do not have an exact number for van's mpg difference with them and without them but probably no more energy used than pushing big mirrors down the highway. Some truck mirrors descriptions used to give HP loss at 55 mph BITD. The panels are always set flat, parallel to the road, when I tool down the highway so the air flow is likely somewhat laminar. The frontal projected area is 4" x 8 ft.
The Zenn gets well over 100 mpg from those panels' free energy. This calculation is based on EPA's formula to figure a plug-in car's mpg. I also charge 2 ebikes from these panels at home and when doing multi day edirt-biking in the country side of no power outlets.
Google: When an electric car draws 33.7 kWh of electricity from its batteries it has used the energy equivalent of one gallon of gasoline. Take the Leaf: it requires just over 33.7 kWh (34 kWh, to be precise) to go 100 miles, so it gets a rating of 99 MPGe.Feb 11, 2013 At what speed??
3.2 kWh of energy can move an ebike and rider over 80 miles at 18 mph of country riding.
Your concern of pushing air and at what rate is legitimate. The panels also power the van's microwave and refrigerator/freezer and can heat the sleeping chamber.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Dingus, you need to do some aero mods to that wing. It could work for you with downforce for better cornering and raising up for aero braking! ;-)
So, the 800 lb gorilla in the battery powered kool-aid stand is still the yuge polluting coefficient of making and disposing of them. Instead of batteries yer house's storage could be a nice tower accumulator upon which a windmill could be mounted to augment the solar!
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rwedgee
Ice climber
CA
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Mazda announces breakthrough in long-coveted engine technology
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mazda-strategy-idUSKBN1AO0E7
Mazda announces breakthrough in long-coveted engine technology
TOKYO (Reuters) - Mazda Motor Corp said it would become the world's first automaker to commercialize a much more efficient petrol engine using technology that deep-pocketed rivals have been trying to engineer for decades, a twist in an industry increasingly going electric.
The new compression ignition engine is 20 percent to 30 percent more fuel efficient than the Japanese automaker's current engines and uses a technology that has eluded the likes of Daimler AG and General Motors Co.
Mazda, with a research and development (R&D) budget a fraction of those of major peers, said it plans to sell cars with the new engine from 2019.
"It's a major breakthrough," said Ryoji Miyashita, chairman of automotive engineering company AEMSS Inc.
The announcement places traditional engines at the center of Mazda's strategy and comes just days after Mazda said it will work with Toyota Motor Corp to develop electric vehicles and build a $1.6 billion U.S. assembly plant.
"We think it is an imperative and fundamental job for us to pursue the ideal internal combustion engine," Mazda R&D head Kiyoshi Fujiwara told reporters. "Electrification is necessary but... the internal combustion engine should come first."
A homogeneous charge compression ignition (HCCI) engine ignites petrol through compression, eliminating spark plugs. Its fuel economy potentially matches that of a diesel engine without high emissions of nitrogen oxides or sooty particulates.
Mazda's engine employs spark plugs under certain conditions, such as at low temperatures, to overcome technical hurdles that have hampered commercialization of the technology.
Mazda Motor President Masamichi Kogai sits next to a screen showing a slide about its new engine, to be called SKYACTIV-X, at a news conference in Tokyo, Japan August 8, 2017.Kim Kyung-Hoon
Executive Vice President Akira Marumoto called Mazda's engine technology the automaker's "heart".
The engine is called SKYACTIV-X and Mazda had no plans to supply the engine to other carmakers, Marumoto said.
Slideshow (5 Images)
AEMSS' Miyashita said a key issue would be how smooth and responsive the engine is.
"Is it jerky? If so, that would pose a big question when it comes to commercializing this technology." he said. "Hopefully Mazda has an answer to that question."
Mazda also said it would introduce electric vehicles and electric technology in its cars from 2019, focusing on markets that restrict the sale of certain vehicles to limit air pollution or that provide clean sources of electricity.
In addition, it said it aimed to make autonomous-driving technology standard in all of its models by 2025.
Mazda's announced its petrol-engine technology breakthrough on the same day that shares in Japan's GS Yuasa Corp surged after a newspaper reported that it would start producing a lithium battery that would double the range of electric cars as early as 2020.
Mazda's share price closed down 1.3 percent. That compared with a 0.3 percent fall in the benchmark Nikkei 225 index.
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Jon Beck
Trad climber
Oceanside
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compression ignition is another name for diesel
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chill
climber
The fat part of the bell-curve
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Solar panels on top of a car is a great idea. If its cloudy you just drive to where the sun is shining.
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Tom Turrentine
Trad climber
Santa Cruz
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This is all about batteries. Indeed the price of batteries for this type of use has dropped from about $1000 to $300 per kWh in 6 years, and more drops are on the way. No guarantees, but they need to get down to around $125-100 per kWh (Teslas have 70-100 kWh). If this is possible (and I don't think we know quite yet) then electrification of many vehicles will progress. Electric won't sweep away combustion in a revolution, rather more of semi-policy structured transition over the next 2-3 decades.
Big oil is beginning to fight back, maybe a sign that this is real.
The world market for electric vehicles just passed a rate of 1 million per year, just over 1% of the annual market (88 million) . So it is early. And the existing fleet of combustion vehicles is over 1 billion.
Investments by auto companies in this path is accelerating, and only when we see big firms like VW "divest" in combustion can we expect massive markets.
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Bad Climber
Trad climber
The Lawless Border Regions
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We REALLY need a breakthrough on batteries. Lithium extraction has some serious environmental side-effects, and I wonder how abundant and/or recyclable it is? A very smart relative was talking about super capacitors that could charge almost instantly. If these can be scaled up, the electric revolution will be here. Right now, I see it as a niche market, only growing slowly, but once the price and range and all the rest is there, electric vehicles should take over. Electric motors are WAY more reliable than IC.
BAd
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Jon Beck
Trad climber
Oceanside
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super capacitors that could charge almost instantly.
They are useful when you need massive power very quickly, like in a rail gun or a laser weapon. Thousands of amps in milliseconds. They have a very low energy density, bottom of the chart. Not suited for vehicles
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skcreidc
Social climber
SD, CA
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We all die sooner or later...
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Larry Nelson
Social climber
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When will the Indianapolis 500 go electric?
Edit: When Harleys go electric, how will they simulate the manly sound?
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rottingjohnny
Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
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I want my electric car to sound exactly like a Cummins strait six with headers...Chicks dig it...
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healyje
Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
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Bolivia's not running out anytime soon...
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