Warriors continue to underperform

BASKETBALL 6:46 PM MAR 28, 2016

Updated Odds Of The Warriors Going 73-9
By KYLE WAGNER


I mean, probably? NOAH GRAHAM / NBAE VIA GETTY IMAGES
With the NBA regular season winding down, the Golden State Warriors are 66-7 and need to go 7-2 over their final nine games to break the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls’ record for most wins in a season. We have a guess for how this will play out: Our CARM-Elo prediction system says Golden State has about a 66 percent chance of getting there. But we’d be lying if we didn’t say that handicapping the Warriors’ run to 73 is just as uncertain now as it was a few months ago.

Our CARM-Elo NBA predictions use a combination of a team’s (pre-season) personnel and its past performance to estimate its relative strength. For most of the season it has tended to have the Warriors as a little more likely to run up on Michael’s Bulls than other prediction systems.1

As the season winds down, those predictions become less abstract and might seem to take on more tangible meaning. It ought to be easier to predict a team going 7-2 than 25-5, right? But there’s a circular sort of logic to forecasting like this. On the one hand, when the finish line was further out, any effects of late-season lineup-fiddling from the Warriors or their opponents were aggregated over many games. The system doesn’t know that Stephen Curry may sit down in the final week of the regular season because the Warriors secured a 1-seed, or because of a sore hamstring, or because of a bad run-in with room service sushi. But the estimated effect of a game or two without the MVP is smaller in the context of a full season. This can make forecasts from months out feel more precise, less vulnerable to natural rhythms of the season.

On the other hand, it takes a certain kind of willful omnipotent to guarantee that a team’s basic state — three healthy stars and the supporting constellations mostly intact — will remain unmolested by fate. The long-term outlook is always vulnerable to genuine surprise.

As it stands, with nine games remaining, we know the state of the Warriors going into this stretch — a little banged up, but still plenty good. We can be relatively certain there aren’t any big surprises left in the season, just the series of little ones we always knew were coming: The tension between chasing the record and run-of-the-mill rest before the playoffs, plus some nagging injuries to rotation players and the need to bonk the rust off of a few guys coming back from longer-term absences.

WINS AT LEAST THIS MANY WINS EXACTLY THIS MANY WINS
68 >99% <1%
69 >99 <1
70 >99 2
71 97 8
72 89 23
73 66 34
74 33 25
75 8 8
Chances the Warriors finish with:
Now that we’ve arrived at the precipice, though, the step from 72 to 73 wins seems as large as ever. Our model thinks the Warriors have an 89 percent chance to at least tie the Bulls’ record at 72 wins, but those odds fall 23 percentage points, to 66 percent, for 73 or more wins; 74 or more wins is a 33 percent proposition, but let’s not go getting greedy now. These projections also assume teams will play to win, which is uncertain for the Warriors, who can probably coast to a 1-seed, as well as their opponents, who will deal with all the typical late-season machinations for playoff seeding or draft position.

By all appearances, however, Golden State is fixing to up and do this thing.

Coach Steve Kerr said last week that the Warriors won’t be backing down from the chase, at least as long as the players want it. “Yeah, this whole idea of setting a record does make things a little trickier,” he said. “It’s the players who are setting a record. It’s not the organization. It’s the players who are doing it. So they will absolutely have some say in matters down the stretch in terms of how we approach everything.”

Scottie Pippen is likely right. Those Bulls would beat the Warriors.

The major reason? Michael Jordans' unstoppable offense? Nope.

Defense. Socttie Pippen and Micheal Jordan are the only back court in recent times that could not only play the entire game, but shut down 2 guards completely. Draymon Green benefits from the fact that due to their range, Steph and Klay spread the floor more than any other due since way before the Jordan Bulls.

The Warriors won't make it past the west Finals.

The Spurz will beat the Raptors in 6

Meh. They should have won at least 75.

Golden State still needs 16 victories for widespread consideration as the best team ever. If they fail, it’s not for lack of motivation. These Warriors burn to be the best, whether you’re ready or not, whether you admit it or not. History is happening in Oakland. It’s happening quickly, as men of considerable ambition dictate its shape.

The pro-Jordan bias of the refs was just unbelievable, though. Not a few playoff games were won by the Bulls — or, at least, won more easily — on that basis.

...they put a very great deal of discretion in the refs' hands.

This sort of thing has been an NBA problem for decades. Established stars get the benefit of the doubt on the charge/block, traveling, and against whom to charge the foul. The NBA is, after all, entertainment. They have less to sell if their stars can't play. As calls evolved to make traveling an optional violation and basketball a contact sport, they put a very great deal of discretion in the refs' hands.

I was at that game tonight...

Trad climber
Minister of Moderation, Fatcrackistan

May 12, 2016 - 05:56pm PT
Spurs are looking old and sloppy tonight turd, like you.

DMT

Careers are measured in championships, not getting to the championship. There’s no getting around this, James cannot win an argument about Jordan’s six titles or Kobe Bryant’s five. Forget the notion of Russell’s 11.

A proud effort by the champs but they were certainly abetted by OKC's brick hoisting fest.

"There is simply no way to stop him," says his teammate and close friend Clyde Drexler. If the defender crowds him, Vandeweghe will drive to the basket with a quick first step in either direction that belies his reputation for being superglued to the floor on defense. Give him room and he'll shoot you dead with his outside shot, an amalgam of modern-day jumper and old-fashioned one-hander. He's effective on the break (where he's one of the most underrated dunkers in the league), and he moves intelligently without the ball in the half-court offense.

After being drafted by the Pistons in the 1971 draft with the 11th overall pick, Rowe did show some promise. He had 5 pretty solid years with the Pistons, playing more than 80 games each year, helping Detroit to make the playoffs 3 different times and even making the All Star team in 1976, right before Boston acquired him

In Rowe, the Celtics picked up one of the most selfish players in their history, sacrificing the leadership, toughness and rebounds Silas brought to the court. Most vexing, Rowe was a guy who seemingly only cared about individual statistics and yet habitually failed in this endeavor, rarely ranking as a top player in any NBA category.