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NutAgain!
Trad climber
South Pasadena, CA
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Jul 13, 2015 - 05:03pm PT
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Laugh if you want, but I three-hung a 12 meter 10b yesterday, and I could, like, totally send that rig with a few more burns. And I'm not even in shape right now. So, yeah, train this winter, and 5.16 next summer!!!!!!!!!
Hey, I three hung after the last clip on a 10b on July 4... I'm in the running too.
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Ghost
climber
A long way from where I started
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Jul 13, 2015 - 07:12pm PT
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Hey, I three hung after the last clip on a 10b on July 4... I'm in the running too.
Sh#t, You're a full week ahead of me.
No. Wait. The pitch I three-hung was Index 10b. That puts me at least a month ahead of you.
Whew! As long as I stick to Coach Donini's program of one letter grade every two weeks, I can still pull this off.
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nah000
climber
no/w/here
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Jul 13, 2015 - 11:08pm PT
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RP3 wrote: "What was the 5.12a climbed in 1960, the 5.11c climbed in the early 30's and the 5.10d climbed in the teens?"
pretty sure Ed got his info from Clint Cummins' Hard rock climbs - First routes of each grade web page...
from there:
6b (5.10c); 1918; The Wilder Kopf, Westkante; Elbsandstein; Emanuel Strubich
6c+ (5.11c); 1934; south wall Torre Trieste; Dolomites; Raffaele Carlesso, barefoot
7a+ (5.12a/b, V5); 1961; Thimble, North Face; Needles (SD); John Gill
while they are all mind boggling, the one i'd like to know more about is the torre trieste south wall...
whereas the wilder kopf route is a single pitch on sandstone that apparently looks like this:
and most of us know the thimble looks like this:
otoh, here's the torre trieste south wall:
according to the uk climbing website that is a 24 pitch, 700m wall...
which begs the question was this really freed in 1934 via the same line that is today graded 11b/c?
this italian website has a pitch list and it lists the difficulty as "4°, 5°, 5°+, 6°, A1, A2 A3." i'd read this to mean that it went up to a free climbing difficulty of VI and an aid climbing difficulty of A3... if i'm reading that correctly, it seems strange that they would list it that way if at least some of the climb was actually free climbed at VIII- in 1934... ie. my gut says listing this as having been [at least partially] free climbed at 11c in 1934 may be a mistake... that said i'd love to be wrong on this and hope someone steps up and makes me eat crow.
if you read german there is an interesting trip report here... and if you don't there are some interesting pictures including of the VIII- pitch...
it'd be great if someone who knew this history would step up, as if true, in order to do something comparable all you suitors of the sixteenth grade are going to have to up your game and at least do it at everest base camp if you're serious about leaving a real mark on history...
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patrick compton
Trad climber
van
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Jul 14, 2015 - 04:13am PT
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does 16a count if the climber hasn't reached puberty?
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Jul 14, 2015 - 08:31am PT
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sorry, I intended to reference Clint's website if I didn't...
and I was in a bit of a quandary as to what to include... boulder problems are, well, problematic.
The "regression" actually follows the later dates with the idea that establishing a new grade requires some consensus, that means a number of climbers have to climb the route and agree. This is another arising issue as the number of people capable of doing those climbs becomes fewer, and the possibility that the climbs would be repeated less.
I liked the comment on the "resource limitation" involving the routes themselves. Looking at Yosemite you'd think there must be an unlimited number of route possibilities way beyond the limit, but to date there are only a handful of 5.14 routes. Possibly the result of limited climber attention and limited climber capability.
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RP3
Big Wall climber
Twain Harte
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Jul 14, 2015 - 09:43am PT
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Ahh! I understand. Thanks for clearing that up.
That Wilder Kopf route is visionary.
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mouse from merced
Trad climber
The finger of fate, my friends, is fickle.
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Jul 21, 2015 - 07:02am PT
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does 16a count if the climber hasn't reached puberty?
[Click to View YouTube Video]
Or if the climber hasn't done with nappies?
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Gnome Ofthe Diabase
climber
Out Of Bed
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bumping 'cause this has that history drift,
Better than . . . . .
A lot of the things on the front page
Bump
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Clint Cummins
Trad climber
SF Bay area, CA
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chill
Jul 9, 2015 - 10:31am PT
Ed - I'm a little puzzled by your plot. Are you sure the axes aren't reversed? I agree. Usually in statistics type literature, the dependent variable
(rating, apparently) is on the Y axis, and time is on the X axis.
Then the logistic function is something like:
rating = a/(1 + exp(-b*time))
where a and b are estimated from the data. limit(rating) = a as t approaches infinity (for b positive).
Actually in a standard logistic probability distribution function, a=1 and only b is estimated:
p = 1/(1 + exp(-b*time))
so p ranges between 0 and 1 as time goes from -infinity to +infinity (for b positive).
But this is a special functional form. Not sure why it or a log function
would apply to how ratings are designated over time.
I'd say a linear function looks better.
Another thing about fitting is that only the climbs which advanced the hardest grade should be on the plot. This is the lower envelope.
That also looks fairly linear.
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Bad Climber
Trad climber
The Lawless Border Regions
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Cool to see I'm an elite climber...for 1878.
BAd
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mcreel
climber
Barcelona
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I bet that 16a (9c+) goes down in less than 2 years. Either Summer '16 or '17 in Norway, or Winter '17 or '18 in wunnerful Catalunya, Spain. Actually, I'd say it's about a 50% chance, but 9c is a good bet.
I also bet that the curve will be flatter than the logistic extrapolation predicts, because more young people who have trained hard in gyms for half their lives will be arriving on the scene. These are kids who are too young to abuse alcohol and drugs, so they will have good habits and concentration, not like the standards movers of the past.
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brotherbbock
climber
Alta Loma, CA
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Ondra seems virtually washed up.
How do you figure that?
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mcreel
climber
Barcelona
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I just took a closer look at the fitted curves, and that logistic plot looks pretty suspicious. Way more than half the points are below the line. What was the fitting method? Certainly not least squares, and I doubt that it was maximum likelihood, either.
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Jaybro
Social climber
Wolf City, Wyoming
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Ghost in '16!!
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Alpamayo
Trad climber
Davis, CA
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I don't know the answer, but I bet some internet climber will downgrade it within an hour
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Splater
climber
Grey Matter
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Gill's article on Holloway says he climbed V13 Slapshot in 1977.
Which might be sorta equivalent to 5.14b/c ?
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WBraun
climber
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5.16a is all bullsh!t!!
It's just bouldering moves.
Get these wankers up in the Himalayan walls where real men climb and they'll cry like little girls .....
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jogill
climber
Colorado
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. . . and I was in a bit of a quandary as to what to include... boulder problems are, well, problematic (Ed)
An excellent point, Ed. This issue is a moving target. Back in the 1960s, long before crash pads could be stacked beneath a problem, Jim MacCarthy said, "Any time your feet are more than ten feet above your start and you're not on toprope you are climbing, not bouldering." In other words you are free soloing, but at a height where you might sustain an injury but not necessarily die. So, back then the 30' Thimble was a climb. These days boulderers will practice on a top rope then solo highballs with a stack of mats below. A different world.
Now, as to Holloway's boulder problems, if they are very short or the hard move is right off the ground it's probably not correct to call a V11 the first 5.14 or whatever the equivalence is. If the hard moves are up in the air, they are definitely climbs, even though the current generation may "highball" them.
But I am ancient and my thought processes suspect.
;>)
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