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MisterE
Gym climber
Being In Sierra Happy Of Place
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Topic Author's Original Post - Jul 8, 2015 - 10:09pm PT
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Will it be one of the young crew who finds the hard line perfect for their style - and sent in a public release?
Or will it be an "Action Directe" or a "Hubble" that is not repeated for years?
My best guess is 2016 - new line by a relative new-comer.
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Big Mike
Trad climber
BC
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Ashima. Or Ondra. Sooner than we think..
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Studly
Trad climber
WA
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I don't want it bad enough.
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ß Î Ø T Ç H
climber
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5.16 Whoever it is won't be using YDS that's for sure.
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Kalimon
Social climber
Ridgway, CO
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16a seems pretty ethereal at this juncture . . . at a certain point there is no reference.
Certainly just another punter talking here.
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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the good news is relatively soon
of course, if we continue on the logistic trend we'll max out in 2054 (my 100th year!) at 5.17a
data taken from: http://web.stanford.edu/~clint/yos/hard.htm
who? the one who's training hard and not getting injured in the process...
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bvb
Social climber
flagstaff arizona
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Exactly.
Jul 8, 2015 - 10:37pm PT
5.16
Whoever it is won't be using YDS that's for sure.
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Flip Flop
climber
Earth Planet, Universe
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Woman, under 20, under 100lb.
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jeff constine
Trad climber
Ao Namao
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not U lol,, just another I must be front page shot.
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donini
Trad climber
Ouray, Colorado
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It will happen in September.....a runout slab climb in Tuolumne, a new kid from the Santa Barbara area.
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G_Gnome
Trad climber
Cali
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Sorry Jim, Slab climbing tops out around 13a. Nothing harder exists.
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hagerty
Social climber
A Sandy Area South of a Salty Lake
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Shouldn't at least some of the hard 15's see 2nd or 3rd ascents for consensus before forging ahead into a new grade?
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Mungeclimber
Trad climber
Nothing creative to say
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someone (or two someones) with bona fides 'venturing' a guess at a new rating becomes media fodder, and that's how a new grade gets "established" not because there is actual consensus comparing angles of overhang and size of individual holds and number of actual moves (at least beyond like 4 people).
I'm not aware of a quantitative analysis comparing high end climbs??
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chill
climber
between the flat part and the blue wobbly thing
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Ed - I'm a little puzzled by your plot. Are you sure the axes aren't reversed?
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jogill
climber
Colorado
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The higher the grade the less it means, going beyond simply training hard into the realm of genetic or anatomical anomalies. At some point grades make little sense. A more objective measure of "difficulty" would then be a record of how many succeed on a particular problem - (1) would be the top of the scale, (2) a tad less "difficult", etc.
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hashbro
Trad climber
Mental Physics........
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I've always been an advocate of the "easy, medium and hard" rating system (instead of YDS).
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tripmind
Boulder climber
San Diego
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Ashima. Or Ondra. Sooner than we think.. Ondra seems virtually washed up. Ashima has done some good climbs, but setting routes takes maturity and vision, and it also requires exploration, a young climber that spends her time in a comp circuit is not going to be doing this.
Woman, under 20, under 100lb. Just because the weight factor is there doesn't really mean someone who might be as heavy as Chris Sharma couldn't do a climb that feels harder than a 15d and decide to call it 16. Fortunately for us all, YDS grades have not and can not be broken down into quantifiable physical properties such as incline angle, size of hold, distance between holds, sharpness of rock, length of climb, etc.
My best prediction for world's first 16 is going to be Alex Meggos, or otherwise Adam Ondra if he stops fluttering around in the comp circuits and gets back to work. I think Sharma is still in great shape too, who knows if he'll find a the next big thing is his crag in spain
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mouse from merced
Trad climber
The finger of fate, my friends, is fickle.
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Colenol Mustard.
When, though, I haven't a clue.
Nice chart, Dr.
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eeyonkee
Trad climber
Golden, CO
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Ed's a frigging gem here.
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eeyonkee
Trad climber
Golden, CO
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Here's my other answer. I'd like to think it would be me, but realistically, since I've barely done anything harder than 5.11, never been into bouldering or working out all that much, probably eat more than I should, and will be 59 in a month, I'm a scientist enough to "go with the odds". So, I guess my answer is, somebody other than me.
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