Market Turbulence Looms as Greek Referendum Threatens Calm

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jstan

climber
Topic Author's Original Post - Jun 27, 2015 - 11:35am PT
Market Turbulence Looms as Greek Referendum Threatens Calm

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-27/euro-area-bonds-ready-for-crucial-greece-decision-to-pierce-calm

Late on Friday the EURO commissioners were preparing to offer Greece a five month extension of the negotiations regarding repayment of Greece’s 279 billion in debt. Tsipras then announced Greece would hold a referendum in five days , after defaulting on Tuesday. Immediately thereafter and after the article cited above was released, the EURO commissioners reportedly withdrew their offer of a five month extension.

The game of Chicken has gone much further than many believed possible. I don’t see how Monday can be anything but interesting.

Jan

Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
Jun 27, 2015 - 11:40am PT
And the bright side is that a vacation in Greece just got even cheaper.
jstan

climber
Topic Author's Reply - Jun 27, 2015 - 11:47am PT
The following report on this same problem in 2013. Local bond funds who were long delivered
108% yield.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702304682504579157610871291216

The R/E impact at that time was expected to be limited to large villas. People were declining to
pay their mortgages. Those who dream of a villa in Greece might want to keep their eyes open
on Monday. I'll admit.

An island would be nice. But there will be a lot of unrest.
John Duffield

Mountain climber
New York
Jun 27, 2015 - 12:22pm PT
Given the rash of terror incidents, swarms of migrants, some countries may want their borders back. But there's an awful lot of business and jobs dependent on the EU. Going to be tough to unwind it.

Up until now, it's been cheaper to pay off the Greeks, than deal with the financial fallout from the default.
Sure looks like Greece is done there. That said, the money involved, isn't really a lot. Greece is strategically located. There are other potential rescuers.

climbski2

Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
Jun 27, 2015 - 12:29pm PT
I really don't even understand what money is at the level of international finance.. seems more like politics/hedgemony issues than business.

The stuff is artificial and made by keybord strokes..who controls the keyboard seems to be the issue.
yanqui

climber
Balcarce, Argentina
Jun 27, 2015 - 03:32pm PT
They'll be taking away Argentina's claim to the biggest default in history. So I guess Argentina will have to look for something else to excel at.
little Z

Trad climber
un cafetal en Naranjo
Jun 27, 2015 - 03:59pm PT
Argentina will have to look for something else to excel at.


of course you mean other than financial crisis and futbol
couchmaster

climber
Jun 27, 2015 - 05:33pm PT
I believe that the Agentinians also hold the 10 year record for most innocent citizens murdered by the government title as well do they knott?. Ie. last 10 years or soish.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jun 27, 2015 - 10:39pm PT
"Market turbulence looms?". What have the last six months been? Thankfully it should be
resolved this week. What is stupid is that Greece only accounts for 2% of the Euro zone
yet the tail seems to be wagging the dog. But then most investors are sheep like everyone else.
China's problems could soon be of much more concern. Their market is down almost 20% in
the last week or two.
jgill

Boulder climber
The high prairie of southern Colorado
Jun 27, 2015 - 10:45pm PT
Greece say bye bye to the European Union, whose constitution no one reads and whose president no one knows. (stolen from G. Wills commentary)
yanqui

climber
Balcarce, Argentina
Jun 28, 2015 - 05:50am PT
I believe that the Agentinians also hold the 10 year record for most innocent citizens murdered by the government title as well do they knott?. Ie. last 10 years or soish.

Not that I want to hijack this thread but I'm anal retentive and feel compelled to set the record straight. From 1974-1983, after being given the thumbs up from Kissinger and the US government, the dictators in Argentina "disappeared" an estimated 13,000 dissidents (which included the parents of a friend of mine), many of whom were active members of the Marxist People's Revolutionary Army. Since 1983 Argentina has had democracy and the murder rate is at levels comparable to the US.

I certainly do not mean disrespect to any innocent citizens who were victims of the Dirty War (which includes the parents of my friend), but to characterize this period as "the record ... for most innocent citizens murdrered by the government" seems totally absurd to me. I mean what about the Holocaust, or Stalin, Pol Pot in Cambodia (where we're talking about millions of victims) the White Terror in Spain (hundreds of thousands), or even nearby Chile, that had an estimated 22,000 killed between 1975 and 1978? And that's just a few examples from the 20th century.

Carry on
Scott McNamara

climber
Tucson, Arizona
Jun 28, 2015 - 07:59am PT
http://www.greekcrisis.net/

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_12/05/2015_549947
clinker

Trad climber
Santa Cruz, California
Jun 28, 2015 - 08:06am PT
Money lendering, crooks in suits.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jun 28, 2015 - 04:26pm PT
The DJIA futures are down 260 from Friday's close.
BLUEBLOCR

Social climber
joshua tree
Jun 28, 2015 - 05:16pm PT
Their debt of 279 Bil. roughly equates to 25,200 per person.

Our debt in the US equates to 57,000 per person.

Are we next? Do we have any intention on leveling this debt?
climbski2

Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
Jun 28, 2015 - 05:52pm PT
We print our own money.. unlike greece..

whatever the f*#k money is at that level.

Seems to me blue that your point is that greece isn't in very big debt but the EU still wants to divide their corpse and is willing to destroy the livelyhood of everyone in greece for it.

Greece should say.. f*#k you.. and deal with the fallout.. how much worse can it get for them? Being part of the group hasn't done then any good... time to be independent again.

If they dont they wont own a damn bit of their own nation.
donini

Trad climber
Ouray, Colorado
Jun 28, 2015 - 06:00pm PT
As always....the world is beset by insoluble problems and the end is near. Our way of life isn't sustainable and a "Road Warrior" world is just around the corner.
Oh well...nice long hike today and I may just have to clip some bolts on exellent, fresh limestone tomorrow.
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
mammoth lakes ca
Jun 28, 2015 - 06:09pm PT
Donini...You in Greece...?
Jan

Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
Jun 28, 2015 - 06:19pm PT
The government of Greece has declared a bank holiday on Monday to stop people withdrawing their euros from ATM's. By the time they vote a week from now, it should be clear to both Greeks and German bankers, the price they all will pay for this.

One thing I had not thought about before that was mentioned by many New York Times readers today, is that Germany has profited immensely by having the poorer Mediterranean countries in the EU to keep the value of the euro low which has aided German exports. If Greece leaves and then Italy, Spain, and Portugal, the value of the euro and the cost of German exports will skyrocket and they too will feel the pain.

donini

Trad climber
Ouray, Colorado
Jun 28, 2015 - 06:20pm PT
Nope...but there IS good hiking and limestone in little ole Ouray. My post is a little misleading. Kinda commenting on the craziness of the world and how to cope.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jun 28, 2015 - 06:23pm PT
how much worse can it get for them?

A lot and, if they don't come to their senses, it will, soon. They haven't seen anything yet.
Voting that lot of sheep-buggering prevaricators in only proved the depth of their collective
delusion. They act like they're doing the Germans a favor by taking their largesse. Very sad.
They're headed down the exact same road as Argentina.
High Fructose Corn Spirit

Gym climber
Jun 28, 2015 - 06:34pm PT
"Kinda commenting on the craziness of the world..." -donini

and to think it all starts innocently enough... upon the imperative to procreate.
climbski2

Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
Jun 28, 2015 - 06:58pm PT
A lot

I suppose.. they are a bringing a one armed fistfighter to a nuclear gunfight. Probably not gunna end well...

Unless you have the balls for it.

Freedom is never free.

Can you explain what this "money" is Reiley... I mean that sincerely.. I really do NOT understand international finance and artificial currency .. uhmm why not just say.. boom here is 279 Billion dollars we created by spending 10 seconds on the computer???

Boom no more debt issue. Get back to work now.

I can understand avoiding rampant inflation.. I doubt that is the risk at the moment however.

We kinda did that during our little mortgage fiasco a few years back.

What is Germany and the rest of the EU trying to gain by this adherance to painful austerity and debt? What is more important to them than financial stability...

something is. But it aint the general population.

I dont think 279 billion (or the much lesser sum of the due payment) is gunna cause rampant inflation in a multi trillion dollar eu economy.

What is the eu trying to accomplish such that they are willing to risk this crap greece and now the world is looking at?
jstan

climber
Topic Author's Reply - Jun 28, 2015 - 09:49pm PT
10-Year U.S. Treasury yield drops 17 basis points
TOKYO, JUNE 29
The benchmark U.S. Treasury yield dropped 17 basis points in early Asian trade on Monday as Greece staggered closer to defaulting on its debt repayment and Athens imposed capital controls on its banks.

The yield on the U.S. 10-year note was last at 2.309 percent, compared with its U.S. close of 2.476 percent on Friday. (Reporting by Lisa Twaronite; Editing by Paul Tait)


Business News | Sun Jun 28, 2015 10:37pm EDT Related: GREECE
Euro, stocks slide on looming Greece default

The euro fell almost 2 percent and share prices tumbled across Asia on Monday as Greece looked set to default on its debt repayment this week, forcing Athens to impose capital controls to halt bank runs.

With the prospect of Greece being forced out of the euro in plain sight, the common currency fell as much as 1.9 percent to $1.0955, its lowest in almost a month, and last stood down 1.4 percent at $1.1007.

Against the yen, the common currency dropped more than 3 percent to 133.80 yen, a five-week low.

As of 10PM EDT changes of 2% are being seen in exchange rates and stocks. The EURO against the yen has changed 3%. If you use bond duration and calculate 10 Year US bond values from the first link you see a 2.8% increase in bond market value. People looking for safe havens.

So with the Wall Street opening 12 hours off a pretty uniform 3% shift has been seen on far eastern markets. I would say the market reaction so far is restrained. If nothing else slips it can stay restrained. We will see early tomorrow..

Holding through this and through up coming rate changes by the FED is beginning to look reasonable depending upon duration.
Jan

Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
Jun 29, 2015 - 12:14am PT
Puerto Rico has just announced that it also can not repay its debts. That's also likely to cause turmoil in the markets.
steveA

Trad climber
Wolfeboro, NH
Jun 29, 2015 - 05:00am PT
I my opinion, the U.S. market has been ripe for a sell-off, for quite some time. The current situation could be the catalyst.

The old saying, "what goes up must come down", still holds, in most cases.
Gunkie

climber
Jun 29, 2015 - 05:54am PT
I've heard that Greece default and projected, subsequent Grexit from the EU will be the beginning of the PIIG nations bailing. I strongly doubt that considering Ireland and Portugal are making decent gains to reshape their moribund economies; However, I'm not seeing Italy's efforts, but strongly believe the ECB fully understands that Italy is a lynch pin within the EU structure and will work super hard to keep them solvent.

But every time the US markets get hammered because of the Greek situation, I buy. It's working so far. Buying again today.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jun 29, 2015 - 05:58am PT
My concern is the size of the decline.

Ever since the '08 crash, interest rates have remained at sixty year lows and quantitative easing went from a one time deal to an ongoing effort. Both policies were intended to jump start our economy. Instead, they've become longterm support. We've become immune to their intended benefits.

So what happens when the crash occurs?... and these proven policies are no longer effective?

Katie, bar the door.
Gunkie

climber
Jun 29, 2015 - 06:02am PT
I my opinion, the U.S. market has been ripe for a sell-off, for quite some time. The current situation could be the catalyst.

The old saying, "what goes up must come down", still holds, in most cases.

SteveA, while I agree with the macroeconomic concept, I see 2015 as a consolidation year for the US markets that have run up so dramatically over the previous three years. We're seeing valuations retract to historically reasonable levels in the face of growing corporate earnings, increased employment and sane expansion of consumer credit.

There will be a correction, but everyday we watch the market move sideways reduces the chance in the near term.
ruppell

climber
Jun 29, 2015 - 07:09am PT
Bitcoins.
John Duffield

Mountain climber
New York
Jun 29, 2015 - 07:14am PT
Stock Market only down 111 so far. But it seems the Puerto Rico debt, is larger and they can't pay either.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jun 29, 2015 - 07:34am PT
climbski, here's Greece in a nutshell, pardon the pun:

You have a country with no industry* to generate taxes. Then you have a government with a
bloated bureaucracy far out of proportion to its actual needs. Then you have a populace with
perhaps the highest percentage of tax dodgers in Europe. Then you have a government that
buys votes by giving jobs to lean on a shovel. Then you have international financiers who are
all too glad to loan unsecured money to fund such nonsense. Pretty simple to see that this
can't end well, eh?


*the one industry that does make money, shipping, off-shores its income so it pays few taxes.
John Duffield

Mountain climber
New York
Jun 29, 2015 - 07:36am PT
I'm having a rare morning here in downtown manhattan. It's one of those mornings where the adventure life, gives you the guts to play in the mosh pit.
climbski2

Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
Jun 29, 2015 - 07:37am PT
Thanks Reilley.. I guess that is my question.. is the crisis fundamental in economic nature as you suggest or is it more artifical due to a poor/predatory monetary system.

Or some mix of both.

I still wonder but at least I can see another veiwpoint.
yanqui

climber
Balcarce, Argentina
Jun 29, 2015 - 07:42am PT
They're headed down the exact same road as Argentina.

Reilly!! A year and a half after one of the biggest economic collapses in history Argentina was in full recovery. The devaluation, the default, reneging on the contracts and tarrif agreements with foreign companies operating in the country together with a boom in commodities all gave Argentina a remarkable jolt of economic growth seldom seen in the country.

I should mention: IMO, eight years of mismanagement by Cristina (or should I say: management aimed principally at maintaining her own power instead of the long term benefit of Argentines) has pretty much pissed all this away and Argentina is in trouble all over again.

At any rate, as far as I understand Greece has been shouldered with the pains of economic crisis for a number of years now (are we going on five years so far, or even more?) with no end in sight, while Argentina suffered two years of economic crisis, tops, before rebounding to one of its biggest periods of economic growth in history .... something Argentines are very much aware of when they are being talked about by outsiders and something to keep in mind, methinks, if you wanna use Argentina as an example.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jun 29, 2015 - 07:51am PT
Well, it always takes two to tango. It's like those parents who give their spoiled brats a credit
card with little, if any, limit. A complication to this case is that after the poo hit the fan they
voted in these so-called socialists who promised to stand up for the Greeks' dignity? If they
were adults they would swallow the little dignity they have left and sit down with the Germans
and work this out. If they insist on waving their freak flag of nihilism they will find themselves
shut out of the international financial markets just like Argentina and they will go into the same
death spiral (in aviation-speak) of printing money to pay for the non-existent jobs they hand
out to the party faithful thereby fueling rampant inflation and the exhaustion of all savings.

Yanqui. the so-called recovery was just the setup for further inflation. The fact that it didn't
last is proof. Would you deny Argentina is worse off now? When I was there a little over
two years ago the exchange rate was under 4 pesos to the dollar. Now it is over 9!

There's NO FREE LUNCH!
yanqui

climber
Balcarce, Argentina
Jun 29, 2015 - 08:18am PT
Would you deny Argentina is worse off now?

Well, I think, overwhelmingly, the vast majority of Argentines would say they are much better off today than during the crisis (fourteen years ago). I, personally, am much better off (at this moment) than during the crisis. However I would agree with the statement that the current situation in Argentina is not sustainable for much longer.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jun 29, 2015 - 08:31am PT
Assuming Greece's default is not averted after the last minute by a fearful EU; what other countries their will see the end of their own unsustainable utopian economies built on consumption without production?

Which ones, and if, how soon? Shine up your crystal balls and hazard some predictions.
fear

Ice climber
hartford, ct
Jun 29, 2015 - 08:34am PT
As the US runs on a 100% faith (and aggressive military) based and backed dollar, the clock on it's 'value' will likely not run out until world-wide war. Or pehaps I should say, wider than it is now.

Greece failing or any one of the other bazillion things wrong with the world will not trigger a US currency collapse.

That being said, if you have $$$ in the Wall Street Casino, I wish you well.
John Duffield

Mountain climber
New York
Jun 29, 2015 - 08:43am PT
It's really hard to say, if it will be Italy or Spain, the next to go. One bad day, a terrorist attack, punctuated by videos of "migrants"swarming vehicles on the highways, could kick it off. They're that edgy right now.

Another big load of tourons in body bags, doesn't help either. On some of the Greek Islands, Syrian refugees, outnumber residents. There's a lot going on and the governments seem powerless to deal with it.

The Greek situation is pretty well sealed. The bank run, means the rats are leaving. The rats always know when the ship is going down.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jun 29, 2015 - 08:48am PT
Rick, my crystal ball shows Brasil looming large:

Huge structural problems.
High corruption levels.
A vastly bloated government.
Very poor tax collection rate.
Budget imbalance of -5.5%, officially (wink,wink), which must surely rise as Dilma will
surely resort to increased vote-buying to stay in power.
13% official interest rate
Accelerating inflation rate soon to press 10%!

This could make Greece look a cake-walk.



Fear, I'm long Proctor&Gamble - people still need to brush their teeth and wipe their asses.

BTW, I told you people 6 months ago to short the Euro and stay the course on bonds.
I have and will continue to be proved correct. ;-)

John, yes, Italy and France are not good but not imminent, either. To my surprise and joy
Renzi is really trying to make meaningful changes. We will see how serious the rest of
his country is in supporting him. Not unexpectedly the French continue to blithely row
with one oar in the water.
jstan

climber
Topic Author's Reply - Jun 29, 2015 - 08:56am PT
Here ST has a built-in capability. From one source we can get input from people with widely ranging experience and from nearly every part of the world. And more often than not, if a poster uses punctuation, five letter words, and does not post fifty times a day, you have a winner.
John Duffield

Mountain climber
New York
Jun 29, 2015 - 09:02am PT
The immediate effect, will be political.

The Greeks, in a last ditch effort, elected a Socialist. That, was really the wrong move.

The UK, always a step ahead of the curve, already sent the Left packing. August vacations loom. So they need to either settle some issues soon, or put them on ice until Fall.
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jun 29, 2015 - 10:07am PT
"Socialism is great, until they run out of other people's money."

Margaret Thatcher.
couchmaster

climber
Jun 29, 2015 - 10:37am PT
Yanqui said:
"From 1974-1983, after being given the thumbs up from Kissinger and the US government, the dictators in Argentina "disappeared" an estimated 13,000 dissidents (which included the parents of a friend of mine), many of whom were active members of the Marxist People's Revolutionary Army. Since 1983 Argentina has had democracy and the murder rate is at levels comparable to the US.

I certainly do not mean disrespect to any innocent citizens who were victims of the Dirty War (which includes the parents of my friend), but to characterize this period as "the record ... for most innocent citizens murdrered by the government" seems totally absurd to me."

Sorry, time flies and poor math combined. I amend my point to read 32-41 years instead of within the last 10 years. Yes, you can go back further and see a government that preyed on their own citizens by dragging them out in the middle of the night, then torturing and executing them with a bullet to the back of the head, but Argentina has the recent state terrorism record is my point.

I didn't know that the US Secretary of State Henry Kissenger caused it to occur though. Interesting that this site doesn't list CIA involvement in Argentinas Dirty War. http://www.huppi.com/kangaroo/CIAtimeline.html It does show that we have overthrown the Greek Government a couple times. Once of the current charges being tossed around in the current Greek crisis. (ie, that the "reforms" being demanded all but have caused, and will cause again, more change in Greece.)

This link will flesh out that thought, titled "Athens is Being Blackmailed" http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/06/28/athens-is-being-blackmailed-alexis-tsipras-greece-syriza-eurozone/?wp_login_redirect=0
http://www.globalresearch.ca/hope-on-the-horizon-and-it-comes-from-greece/5442629

I was thinking the number was much higher than your 13,000.
"In three years as many as 30,000 Argentines were killed."

I also mean no disrespect. Disrespect would be not learning from the past, and forgetting such things entirely. In my mind, US citizens generally do not understand what occurred and if they do, do not believe that this could happen here. Our politicians are all honest and trustworthy (they think). Bringing up these kind of horrible things is worth considering for that reason alone. Rule of law, not rule of "man" or rule of" Army" is all that separates us from that kind of a horror show that we often create or assist elsewhere, and it's a very thin line that keeps getting thinner all the time.

couchmaster

climber
Jun 29, 2015 - 10:49am PT
Also, to anyone interested: please do a search on "Fernando “FerFAL” Aguirre", who detailed what actually occurred (from his view) during the Argentinian financial SHTF crisis that so sh#t on it's citizens, and how best we, or Greek citizens sooner, can survive such a thing when the wolf comes knocking on your door.

This links will get you started:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-12/guest-post-what-crisis-feels

http://ferfal.blogspot.com/2013/06/what-really-happened-during-argentine.html



JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
Jun 29, 2015 - 11:00am PT
Here ST has a built-in capability. From one source we can get input from people with widely ranging experience and from nearly every part of the world. And more often than not, if a poster uses punctuation, five letter words, and does not post fifty times a day, you have a winner.

Oh, oh. My secret source of all international financial knowledge has been exposed! Truly, jstan, if one is willing to filter out the noise, and still listen to everything - not just those who say what you already think - ST is a veritable treasure trove of knowledge and wisdom.

John

SteveW

Trad climber
The state of confusion
Jun 29, 2015 - 01:05pm PT
Turbulence is right--NYSE is down 350 today.
Jan

Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
Jun 29, 2015 - 02:36pm PT
One Greek player not mentioned yet, is Russia. For historic reasons involving their common religion (not to mention the extension of their influence further into Europe than Ukraine), I think we will be hearing from them soon. Warm water ports in the Med in exchange for for low cost fuel?
jstan

climber
Topic Author's Reply - Jun 29, 2015 - 03:32pm PT
As it affects me, I was correct in predicting a restrained response. Tomorrow's actual failure to pay the IMF 1.8Bn is probably going to be similar.
MH2

Boulder climber
Andy Cairns
Jun 29, 2015 - 06:18pm PT
Haven't the banks got a procedure for this? You give the residents notice to move and then take possession of the property.
Studly

Trad climber
WA
Jun 29, 2015 - 06:24pm PT
Now Puerto Rico is jumping ship and bailing on their 73 billion loan. The dominos start to fall..
TGT

Social climber
So Cal
Jun 29, 2015 - 06:31pm PT
What's the difference between the US and Greece other than timeline?
Fritz

Trad climber
Choss Creek, ID
Jun 29, 2015 - 06:49pm PT
There isn't much in the news about the current Greek government folks begging Putin & Russia for "bail-out" money, but Cramer mentions it today on his discourse on why you shouldn't buy into the current dip. It is always worth noting when someone that is most always bullish on stocks, is not bullish.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cramer-danger-alert-dont-buy-221009420.html#


I'm not selling. I'm not buying.


and TGT, hopefully you are happy with your investments.
Rock!...oopsie.

Trad climber
the pitch above you
Jun 29, 2015 - 07:25pm PT
Cramer mentions it today

Cramer? Really? If you want to do well, pretend he doesn't exist. He's the Gallagher of the financial world.
clinker

Trad climber
Santa Cruz, California
Jun 30, 2015 - 02:06am PT

What to do?
JimT

climber
Munich
Jun 30, 2015 - 02:22am PT
Their debt of 279 Bil. roughly equates to 25,200 per person.

Our debt in the US equates to 57,000 per person.

Are we next? Do we have any intention on leveling this debt?

It´s not how big the debt is but the ability to pay it off.

Greek debt 197% of GDP
USA debt 105% of GDP
Germany debt 69% of GDP

I lived for some years in Greece but nowadays prefer to live in Germany.
yanqui

climber
Balcarce, Argentina
Jun 30, 2015 - 03:42am PT
Couchmaster: the number 13,000 is not my number, it is the official government estimate. The government paid out about 11,000 indemnifications (up to 200,000 dollars) to the next of kin of victims who made claims after 1983, so the 30,000 number you cut and pasted sounds too high compared to that. At any rate, even if that number was correct, it would still be light years away from the worst thing a government ever did to its citizens.


Again for couchmaster: Here are the official US documents detailing Kissinger and the US government giving the thumbs up to dictators to go ahead with the disappearences:

http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB104/

Today Greece will indeed one-up Argentina. Even with all the problems they had, Argentina never defaulted on the IMF and actally ended up paying off the Fund in one big installment. What will be Europe's response?
Gunkie

climber
Jun 30, 2015 - 06:11am PT
One Greek player not mentioned yet, is Russia.


Bingo, Jan.

I'm convinced that Russia is the silent hand directing Alexis Tsipras to hold the line on austerity measures. Greece and Russia did have a discrete meeting not too long ago. Greece bails on the EU and Russia steps in and effectively has a Mediterranean base of operations in the heart of NATO.

With that said, it's still not even a minor blip on the US economy. However, the markets will move in draconian ways that can be exploited by savvy and agile investors to make serious dough.
HermitMaster

Social climber
my abode
Jun 30, 2015 - 06:42am PT
That Greece has been in default mode at least half of its modern existence reveals as silly the view that its debt troubles are scaring markets. If anything a default would be healthy in a normal world for it forces investors into real ideas over government consumption. Instead, Greece's troubles scare investors due to bank exposure to the debt, Greece's anti-growth response to what is a slow-growth problem, and then the comically obtuse idea that the near-term answer to Greece's troubles is a departure from the euro. Not only will Greece never fully exit the euro, to do so would be as silly as Arkansas exiting the dollar in favor of a local Peso.

What Greece's Alleged Collapse Is, and Isn't

By John Tamny

With Greece once again set to default on its government debt, markets are to varying degrees convulsing. The obvious question is whether or not the panic is rooted in something real to worry about. Not really. As is always the case, market fears are a creation of government error, not worries about a very minor economic entity.

To see why, it needs to first be remembered that a Greek default would be nothing new. As Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff noted in their much talked about 2009 book This Time Is Different, Greece has been in default mode roughly half of its modern existence. That its creditors might suffer a "haircut" on what is owed them is far from novel.

The only reason a default constitutes news has to do with who holds some of the country's debt. As evidenced by how the shares of German and French banks have rallied over the years each time a potential debt workout was reached, the story behind the non-story that is a Greek default involves banks that do not have an Athens address. In short, Greece's debt troubles have little to do with an historically profligate country, and everything to do with banks that are wrongly seen as too important to be allowed to suffer their mistakes.

Importantly, if banks were properly allowed to fail much like other private business are allowed to with great regularity, bank exposure to Greece would be a non-story. Better yet, banks likely wouldn't have exposure to Greece in the first place given its lousy track record. In short, government involvement in what should be the private doings of the private economy has created a "crisis" that would not exist absent the desire of politicians to insert themselves into a global economy that would be much healthier without political meddling.

"Healthy" is the operative word here because lest we forget, a lack of economic health explains why Greece has so often been enmeshed in default throughout its modern history. What's not discussed enough is that Greece has an economy that is roughly the size of Dallas, and that as a percentage of the overall Eurozone economy amounts to roughly 2-3 percent. That such a tiny part of Europe's economy could have investors up in arms is further evidence that this is all about the major banks with exposure to Greece, and nothing about a potential Greek default. The country itself quite simply doesn't much matter from either a global or European perspective.

Contagion? What a laugh. That's like saying that Texas state debt might go south in value for it being close to Louisiana, or for Mexico bordering it. Does anyone seriously think that Switzerland will suffer "contagion" relating to Greek debt? Let's be serious.

Can it then be said that Greece's own troubles amount to "contagion" for Greece? Not in the least. To state what should be obvious to anyone with the most basic of math skills, Greece doesn't suffer too much debt as much as it's struggling from too little economic growth. If the economy grows, the debt is easy to pay off. That's why rich countries can run up major "deficits," while poor countries have a more difficult time raising debt in the first place.

If Greece's economy were booming, it would not face a default situation. There are many authors of this weakness, it says here that the weak euro (in terms of gold) the last fourteen years has been the unsung driver of slower growth for it inhibiting investment, but the main point here is that if Greece in the most basic sense enjoyed lower rates of taxation (this includes low government spending which is by definition a tax irrespective of whether it's in "deficit" or "surplus") and a stable euro, its economy would be fine. And default on government debt would not be part of the discussion.

The only problem with the above is that good policies aren't presently the norm for Greece. Not only is the euro weak and unstable, but global entities like the IMF are calling for tax hikes to help the country pay down its debt. Ignored is that tax hikes, for penalizing work, generally work against actual economic growth. Greece would be much less likely to default if the policy from its outside minders and the socialists on the inside was focused on reducing the government's burden on the economy.

What about the euro? Is the common currency the problem, and if so, would Greece be wise to leave it? The previous question is the comically obtuse equivalent of asking if Mississippi and West Virginia should exit the dollar in favor of the MS Peso and WV Ringgit. Companies and jobs are a function of investment, so imagine how much more impoverished both states would be (in a relative, American sense) if the dollar were no longer the currency in use. Greece is no different. If it exits the euro, it will be much harder for the increasingly isolated country to attract investors eager to hold income streams that pay out "drachma."

Of course, the above explains why Greece will never leave the euro even if it leaves the euro. The reality is that the country's debt is denominated in euros, not to mention that its best companies will only be able to attain financing in euros. No reasonable investor is going to invest in debt that once again pays out "drachma," and this underscores yet again why Greece will never leave the euro even if it returns to the drachma as its national currency.

What about the struggling banks in Greece, and runs on same? What can't be forgotten is that businesses never just run out of cash. Ever. What happens is that some thought to be poorly operated run out of credibility with a lack of credit the logical next step. It's hard to say, but the mere possibility that Greece will exit the euro for something much less desirable presumably has depositors eager to hold that which is credible, is globally accepted, but that the Greek government is seeking to restrict movement of. In short, Greek banks haven't run out of cash as much as they're operating in a country led by leaders who lack a clue. Greek banks are the victims of the government's cluelessness, the latter is sapping their credibility, but their struggles presumably speak to why Greece will never leave the euro. Eventually even socialists are mugged by reality.

As the penultimate paragraph makes plain, it's ultimately all about the banks. It always is. Nothing against the banks, but it sure would be nice if a few big ones would be allowed to fail based on their exposure to Greek debt. Not only would failure ultimately be healthy for the banking system, but for a few implosions serving as a reminder that "investment" in government debt isn't a one-way street, this failure would be very grand for the global economy.
clinker

Trad climber
Santa Cruz, California
Jun 30, 2015 - 06:48am PT


As the penultimate paragraph makes plain, it's ultimately all about the banks. It always is. Nothing against the banks, but it sure would be nice if a few big ones would be allowed to fail based on their exposure to Greek debt. Not only would failure ultimately be healthy for the banking system, but for a few implosions serving as a reminder that "investment" in government debt isn't a one-way street, this failure would be very grand for the global economy.



Blakey

Trad climber
Sierra Vista
Jun 30, 2015 - 06:59am PT
I had a week cragging in Greece, just North of Athens about two months ago.

From what I saw there's no shortage of money in Greece, lots of new villas, new cars on the roads and in the showrooms, and far more small, medium and large businesses active than closed.

The problem with the money in Greece is that the government don't have it. Tax avoidance has been rampant and culturally endemic. They should never have adopted the Euro, having cooked the books to meet the criteria, and the Eurozone (must have) turned a blind eye to the fact.

It's all coming home to roost now...... How the financial ripples work themselves out in Europe will be interesting to see, as will the results of the referendum.

Steve
Jan

Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
Jun 30, 2015 - 07:27am PT
Also, there's the economy and then there's the quality of life. Greece has beaches and sunshine that fog and rain bound northern Europe will never have. They also have a laid back and healthy lifestyle. Think low stress and Mediterranean diet. They receive remittances from the many Greeks who work overseas and pay for a large portion of those new villas and cars one sees. They have immense pride in their intellectual and cultural past and they are surrounded by beautiful archaeological remains everywhere to remind them. The cheaper their currency, the more tourists will flock there.The Greeks have faced hardship and authoritarian overlords before and the Germans don't begin to compare to the Turks. Whatever happens, the Greeks will survive.
HermitMaster

Social climber
my abode
Jun 30, 2015 - 07:34am PT
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jun 30, 2015 - 07:50am PT
businesses never just run out of cash. Ever.

Huh? That article was pretty good until that point. Need I cite bankruptcy filing numbers?
In his next breath he avers the virtues of allowing some banks to fail. What are they going to
fail over if it isn't a lack of cash to meet obligations? Why are the Greek banks limiting with-
drawals to 60 samolians? Just to be mean?
Blakey

Trad climber
Sierra Vista
Jun 30, 2015 - 07:53am PT
Jan,

Surrounded by cultural remains.........

I was incredibly surprised by the lack of anything ancient in the part of Greece I was in (Marathon and Athens).

I'm well travelled in Europe and I can't think of a major city that doesn't have it's history laid out before you, from Roman times to now. In Athens there was the Parthenon site, and some adjacent columns, Everything else seemed to have been swallowed by concrete. (The museum was very good though!)

I presume it's different elsewhere? but the absence of visible history in Athens was very, very odd.

Anywhere South of Lyon and Frankfurt is 'hot' by our standard, the Greeks don't have a monopoly on the sun. Though I grant you they may soon be in a position to offer extremely cheep holidays.

Ex pat Greeks probably do send money home, but I doubt those left behind use that to purchase villas and cars. It has been suggested that many families have deliberately locked their funds into property and assets rather than have their savings evaporate in a bank.

The daughter of a friend is married to a Greek, they run a business on one of the islands, but are looking to get out and come to the UK. I suspect many more will leave as the situation is going to do nothing but get worse.

Steve

fear

Ice climber
hartford, ct
Jun 30, 2015 - 08:02am PT
It's not a "market" on wall street if you're not in the club. And it's unlikely if you're reading this that you're in that club.

So enjoy the Casino at your own peril....

But don't confuse the true fundamental economic potential of this country with that manipulated Casino.

I'd rather be here during the next fiat currency collapse than Greece.
Jan

Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
Jun 30, 2015 - 08:19am PT
Blakey-

If you think anything south of Frankfurt is "hot", you're definitely a far northern European ! Well do I remember fog not more than 100 feet off the ground for months on end in Germany, south of Frankfurt. The official statistics are one day of sunshine per month from the first of November until the first of May in northern Europe, all the way south to the Alps. I too have lived all over Europe, the worst being winters in Yorkshire with 6 hours of daylight and ground fog so thick, the street lights were on 24 hours a day. I'll take the weather in Greece any day.

As for not being able to see monuments in Greece, I'm amazed. I spent a month in Athens visiting archaeological ruins every day. Then I spent another two weeks touring the Peloponese with more of the same. Then another two weeks in Crete, one of them camped out just outside of Knosos. Greece has always been a poor country with no natural resources so the monuments are not on the scale of Rome, but they are exquisite.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jun 30, 2015 - 09:13am PT
fear, I'm not in the 'club', nor do I indulge in casinos, be they in Vegas or Wall St. You should
do a little reading, preferably something other than The Daily Worker. It is true that there are
a lot of risky investments, to wit, VIX futures and options which, to the casual observer, would
appear to be purely speculative. However, I guarantee that you will see a substantial return
should you choose to smell the roses and send some money to Vanguard or Fidelity. If you
want some quick money* here's my current pick - Statoil - the Norwegian oil company, is very
undervalued at $17.77. In addition they are paying a 5.5% dividend! That is like free money!

yer welcome,
Simon Legree

*'quick' being 9-12 months, minimum.
jstan

climber
Topic Author's Reply - Jun 30, 2015 - 09:47am PT

Impacts, again, are in the 2% to 3% range. Provided nothing else slips.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-29/u-s-banks-fall-as-greek-talks-fail-capital-controls-enacted

U.S. Banks Decline on Greek Talks Failure, Capital Controls
by Dakin Campbell
June 29, 2015 — 6:46 AM PDT Updated on June 29, 2015 — 11:37 AM PDT


Tsipras Asks European Union for a New Bailout Program

Greece Staggers Into Economic Unknown With Bailout Expiring

Greece Can Stay in Euro Even With ‘No’ Vote, Schaeuble Tells Lawmakers

Fear and Frustration: Life Under Capital Controls

Shares of the biggest U.S. banks fell, led by a 2.7 percent decline in Morgan Stanley, after talks to provide Greece with additional bailout aid failed and the Greek government imposed capital controls.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Financials Index slid as much as 1.9 percent, the biggest decline in more than three months. JPMorgan Chase & Co., the largest U.S. bank by assets, dropped 2 percent and No. 2 Bank of America Corp. slid 2.5 percent.
Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras called for a July 5 referendum on whether Greece should accept additional austerity demands from the country’s creditors, and French President Francois Hollande said the results would determine Greece’s future membership in the 19-nation euro region.

Greek banks were closed on Monday and the government imposed capital controls to avert a collapse of the nation’s financial system. Greek stocks and bonds tumbled, and Europe’s Stoxx 600 Banks Index fell 4 percent. Lenders in Italy, Portugal and Spain posted the biggest drops.

JPMorgan, Citigroup Inc., Bank of America and Morgan Stanley have reduced their collective exposure to Greek sovereign, corporate and financial-institutions debt to less than $2 billion from about $3.75 billion in mid-2012, according to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

Citigroup’s Total
Citigroup has exposure to Greek borrowers, including loans, derivatives and securitized products, of about $1.3 billion, as well as third-party assets and liabilities in its Greek branch of approximately $44 million and $481 million, respectively, according to a first-quarter regulatory filing by the New York-based company.
Jamie Forese, head of Citigroup’s institutional clients group, said at an investor conference this month that the bank has reduced its exposure to Greece as much as it can while still serving its clients. The firm has also balanced its assets and liabilities to guard against a departure from the currency union, he said.
“We have been planning for a variety of scenarios and managing our Greek that it sold its Greek retail operation in 2014.

Bank of America, based in Charlotte, North Carolina, said in its first-quarter filing that its net exposure to Greece was $386 million.
Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s total credit exposure to Greece was $180 million, mostly with sovereign counterparties. Market exposure as of March was negative $34 million, the company said in its first-quarter filing. The totals were down from $1 billion in credit exposure and $54 million in market risks as of December, Goldman Sachs said.

“You’d have to assume that the risk is much more contained given people have had years to focus on this,” Goldman Sachs Chief Financial Officer Harvey Schwartz said in April.

William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Board of New York, said developments in Greece are a “huge wild card” that some investors are underestimating.
“If this goes badly, the market reaction may be bigger than what we realize,” Dudley said in an interview with the Financial Times published Sunday.
couchmaster

climber
Jun 30, 2015 - 09:52am PT


It seems to me that there are better stocks if you you are looking to be in the oil space. Why these guys Reilly? A quick check showed that they were upside down on their cash flow for 2014 and their payable/recieveable ratio looks upsidedown. What that means is that dividend might not be there sooner as opposed to later. Of the 4 analysts who have looked at it, they don't appear overly excited either.

Can you share why you think they are poised for a rebound?

"It is true that there are a lot of risky investments, to wit, VIX futures and options which, to the casual observer, would appear to be purely speculative. However, I guarantee that you will see a substantial return should you choose to smell the roses and send some money to Vanguard or Fidelity. If you want some quick money* here's my current pick - Statoil - the Norwegian oil company, is very undervalued at $17.77. In addition they are paying a 5.5% dividend! That is like free money!

yer welcome,
Simon Legree

*'quick' being 9-12 months, minimum. "
John Duffield

Mountain climber
New York
Jun 30, 2015 - 10:17am PT
Yunno, there's also the "human aspect". Where people just get on each others nerves, it's all about them, it's not about saving their country or the world or whatevs.

here's the letter the Greeks sent today. A nearly unreadable font. Obviously, to show their disdain.

http://g8fip1kplyr33r3krz5b97d1.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/ilovepdf_merged-2.pdf
Chaz

Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
Jun 30, 2015 - 10:22am PT
They could have just said "We've run out of other people's money".
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jun 30, 2015 - 10:22am PT
Couch, they're well run, well capitalized, and they sit on a gold mine with two more to come on
line in the relatively near future. Did I mention they're just above their historic low price? Nine
months might be a bit optimistic to see a major uptick but 18 months isn't and I'll be happy
with that dividend in the meantime. Historically they've been pretty steady with the dividends.
I see it as a low risk cash holding with strong upside probability of a mean reversion to $25
which would be a tidy 50% return.
High Fructose Corn Spirit

Gym climber
Jun 30, 2015 - 10:28am PT
Hey Reilly, you ol' smartypants, check out bitcoin this week.
Jeremy B.

climber
Northern California
Jun 30, 2015 - 11:58am PT
Huh? That article was pretty good until that point.

I disagree; I think it got lost in the dogmatic weeds once it veered into the "tax cuts would make it all better" fantasy land. About the only think it really got right, and probably by accident, is the potential risk to the non-Greek banks.

That risk may be minor (Greece is small) or major (they figured Greek capitulation was a no-lose bet and went all-in with 40:1 leverage). But that's only part of the picture; as others have posted, there's all sorts of things that could happen.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jun 30, 2015 - 12:19pm PT
Well, "pretty good" is C+/B-, isn't it? His points on the banks, the piss poor
Greek economy, the 'contagion factor', and the cluelessness of the Greek
government are all valid, if dumbed down for public consumption. ;-)
John Duffield

Mountain climber
New York
Jun 30, 2015 - 03:05pm PT
The deadline, has just passed. It's July now in Greece. Not sure if there was a white knight or not. The amount, 1.6 Billion, is laughable. It's about what it costs to take Air Force One on a jaunt.

Kind of sad. The U.S., has an unaccountable Federal Government as well. No one is big enough to save us.

Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jun 30, 2015 - 06:29pm PT
Banks are closed, and ATM Machines are limited to Eu 60 per day withdrawals. Businesses will be feeling the pinch since most credit card payments have been suspended. Cash is king. The average Greek will feel the pain immediately. The International Banksters are smiling...
john hansen

climber
Jun 30, 2015 - 07:34pm PT
The 1.6 billion is only this payment.

They owe over 330 billion. 225% of there GDP, compared to USA 100% There is another payment of 3.9 billion due in mid July.

Even at 3 percent interest , that is 10 billion dollars a year just to keep above water with out paying off any principle.

The entire annual Greek GDP is only about 147 Billion.

http://moneymorning.com/2015/03/25/how-much-does-greece-owe-4-charts-that-put-greek-debt-in-perspective/
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
mammoth lakes ca
Jun 30, 2015 - 08:07pm PT
" When EF Reilly talks , people listen...
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jun 30, 2015 - 08:27pm PT
The average Greek will feel the pain immediately. With a shortage of circulating currency, the economy will slow to a crawl. The idea of a "cheap vacation" is a fantasy, since the availability of nice food and drink will dry up, along with fuel for busses and taxis. Money is the necessary lubricant of the economy.
Jan

Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
Jul 1, 2015 - 07:42am PT
I think you underestimate the Greek' ingenuity at dealing with adversity. The barter economy will keep people fed anyway and the black market will thrive. As for the tourists, the Greek government is encouraging them to use their credit cards to keep the hard currency flowing.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 1, 2015 - 07:55am PT
LA Times article today says travel agents are not seeing significant cancellations although
the State Dept has issued advisories. The biggest worry is that as things deteriorate tourism
will decline as people will not want to 'rough it' if maintenance and amenities lessen. There
will be very hard choices to be made.

So, Jan, have any meaningful studies been done on why the more temperate the climate the
the less financially temperate the people are? My theory is that if you live in a place where
you might die if they turned off your utilities then you're gonna make sure that doesn't happen.
Maybe that's a subject more for behavioral economists than anthropologists?


RJ, does EF stand for "El Flaco"?
couchmaster

climber
Jul 1, 2015 - 08:09am PT


When Cyprus faced this issue they choose to essentially confiscate 40% of everyone's bank accounts deposits over $100,000/Euros. (of course it's more complex than my few words can describe, duh: see details of BBC link below) The discourse had been going for @ 6 months and they then moved super fast and then confiscated peoples cash during weekend. Bottom line, they took your cash and gave you worthless paper. If you were a business that needed that cash to operate, or a person with bills, you were screwed.

Similar plan has been developed and approved for the US. Here's a link to a rough sketch of some details of that program. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ellen-brown/banks-confiscation_b_2957937.html


http://www.bbc.com/news/business-21982652
Jan

Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
Jul 1, 2015 - 09:10am PT
Reilly, in anthropology we call that field cultural ecology. Personally, I think climate and location have a huge influence. The harsher the climate, the more difficult the life, the harder people work and the more they plan ahead. In Nepal it was particularly striking as I lived in two different villages, only 30 miles apart. In one, the people lived at altitudes of 12,000 feet to 18,000 in altitude and could grow only one crop a year yet produced a surplus and had 30 days of village wide parties a year. In the other at 6,000 feet, they could grow four crops a year and malnutrition was rampant. No parties either. It's enough to make you really think about the difference.

When I compare modern economies, it seems to me Japan and the U.S. are in similar positions. Japan is a cooperative middle class society that has to be to survive all their natural disasters and lack of resources. The U.S. has had so many resources in the past, we never thought about society much and have the most inequitable one now in the advanced world.
John Duffield

Mountain climber
New York
Jul 1, 2015 - 09:14am PT
Because it might be happening to us one day..........


Indeed. The real reason why this is interesting.

My takeaway from this, and other events as well, is how quickly and unforgivingly, things can go South. You proactively go in there, make the difficult choices to head it off, or you get overwhelmed and things are so bad, there's no second chance.
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 1, 2015 - 10:12am PT
I found during my travel to Europe over the past 2 years, that many businesses do NOT accept credit cards for meals and services. most of the Pensions/Albergos, B & B's, etc. all demanded cash payments and refused/were unable to process credit cards. This included Italy and Germany. In the most populated areas in larger cities, credit cards are accepted; in the rural areas--not so...

Fuel/energy will become the first commodity hit, then foodstuffs. Tourists don't want to barter. I suspect that thievery will be on the rise, too.
JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
Jul 1, 2015 - 10:45am PT
I know the banksters will profit no matter what.

Not the banks I've been involved with for the past 36 years. Foreign currency transactions have winners and losers, but their identity depends on the betsw they made, not on their line of business.

The best way to understand the effect these issues have on the Greek people is to understand the difference between national and private debt. Private citizens cannot legally print money. Governments can and do. This allows them to adjust the relative value of their currency and, in the process, shift the cost of past borrowing from taxpayers to others.

if the debt were to be repaid in old Drachmas, the cost of the unpaid debt would shift to the lenders because of the devalued currency. Since the debt is due in Euros, the Greek government's choices are (1) to default on the debt, leaving the lenders holding the bag; (2) to go off the Euro, and have a devalued currency as a result. This would shift the cost to those who use imported goods and services; or (3) to pay the debt from tax proceeds, placing the cost on taxpayers and citizens who receive fewer government benefits because the money is going to repay what was purchased in the past.

Fortunately for the U. S., our debt is still payable in dollars, so we can inflate at least once more, and probably will.


Jan, that's an interesting comment about field cultural ecology. It makes societies behave like wine grapes. The climate in Burgundy is so objectively hostile to growing grapes that the Pinot Noir and Chardonnay that make it there are extraordinary. The climate here in the Big Raisin is so hospitable to growing grapes that the wine grapes here usually aren't much to talk about.

John
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 1, 2015 - 09:18pm PT
If you really want a cheap Big Fat Greek Vacation, buy Euros with Dollars and pay cash for everything when you travel.
yanqui

climber
Balcarce, Argentina
Jul 2, 2015 - 04:35am PT
How ironic would that be if the new world reserve currency had a picture of Mao on it?
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 2, 2015 - 07:22am PT
I see the Greeks turning to Putin and Russia for assistance. They have a surplus of petroleum and natural gas, as well as hard currency.
The entire situation is a result of Fiat Currency, since the ECB can issue Euros in the same manner as the Fed issues dollars in this country. Sooner or later, the chickens all come home to roost. Principal on debts can be re-paid, but interest--not. The end game comes through bankruptcy and foreclosure.

A barter economy can only carry things to international borders; yes, the Greeks probably won't starve, but there won't be any gasoline, natural gas, diesel fuel, etc., the life blood of a modern state.
MikeL

Social climber
Seattle, WA
Jul 2, 2015 - 07:38am PT
JEleazarian (and Jstan): ST is a veritable treasure trove of knowledge and wisdom.

Indeed. In a previous life long ago I was an institutional broker for a US Primary Government Securities Dealer focusing on the short end of the yield curve, and now teaching business. (Not that they mean I know what’s going on—no one ever really does.) The conversation here is informed, stimulating, and fun to read.

Speculation occurs in many areas here on ST.

I remember back in the year of Paul Volker and listening to him make presentations about the looming overhang from international debt that purportedly threatened to put mankind into worldwide depression and Hobbesian “wars against all.” Fortunately, they didn’t quite show up: many scattered fires, but not the firestorm everyone was afraid of.

(But then there was that little problem that messengers Geithner, Paulson, and Bernanke dealt with relatively recently with the decline of Lehman Brothers. Stuff of dramatic movies, but still open for interpretation.)
John Duffield

Mountain climber
New York
Jul 2, 2015 - 10:25am PT
The average Greek will feel the pain immediately. With a shortage of circulating currency, the economy will slow to a crawl. The idea of a "cheap vacation" is a fantasy, since the availability of nice food and drink will dry up

I would've thought, it would take a little time for it to percolate through the economy.
But the bank closure, did exactly this ^^^.

On the news last night, was a seller of produce, who'd paid 2 EU for an item, that he was unsucessfully trying to unload at 1.5 EU late in the day. That's a Produce Seller, that probably took today off.
blahblah

Gym climber
Boulder
Jul 2, 2015 - 10:53am PT
We'll have to keep our eyes on the possibility of cheap vacations (in my view, not to "exploit" anyone, but to help the Greeks out by getting them some much-needed currency, and get some extra-value for ourselves).
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 2, 2015 - 10:54am PT
I imagine the tourists will get their amenities but market dynamics should drive those prices
Up which might send tourists to Mallorca instead.

I heard an interview with the leader of Spain's Podemos party today on NPR saying how he
was standing beside his brother Tsipras in his battle for democracy. So democracy is the
new dole? Not incidentally Rajoy is considering calling early elections to take advantage of
his surge in popularity brought about by his success in creating jobs and growth, things that
Podemos find to be anathema to their vision of 'democracy' apparently.
blahblah

Gym climber
Boulder
Jul 2, 2015 - 11:22am PT
I imagine the tourists will get their amenities but market dynamics should drive those prices
Up which might send tourists to Mallorca instead.

Hmmm, I sort of think market dynamics should drive prices down, and if tourists go elsewhere, that should drive prices even lower.
For example, consider if you own a hotel in Greece--it's going to be nearly empty, and you'll accept lower prices to get anyone to stay there.
All we need to do is show up with our suitcase full of euros, and Greece will be our oyster.

But I admit it's complicated and I really have no idea.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 2, 2015 - 11:34am PT
I say that because if the Cote du Rhone and illegal caviar have to be smuggled in and paid for with cash then it will be in short supply and, hence, very dear. Besides, if they go back to the drachma the exchange rate will be horrendously unfavorable.
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Jul 2, 2015 - 11:42am PT

When Cyprus faced this issue they choose to essentially confiscate 40% of everyone's bank accounts deposits over $100,000/Euros. (of course it's more complex than my few words can describe, duh: see details of BBC link below) The discourse had been going for @ 6 months and they then moved super fast and then confiscated peoples cash during weekend. Bottom line, they took your cash and gave you worthless paper. If you were a business that needed that cash to operate, or a person with bills, you were screwed.

yep, you really have to feel for those people who have bills to pay over $100,000.
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Jul 2, 2015 - 11:45am PT
I have also wondered why the EU doesn't put together a "VISIT GREECE" program designed to get all the tourist dollars from Europe, and a lot from elsewhere, flowing into that country.

Greece is a remarkable place. The birthplace of democracy. The FAILURE of Greece makes one wonder about the long term viability of democratic gov't?

Wonder what that is worth.......
Jan

Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
Jul 2, 2015 - 11:59am PT
I have to disagree on the credit card issue with brokedown. Countries that are rich and well managed demand cash because they can - Germany, northern Italy, Japan. Countries less well managed and rich, including the U.S., take what they can get including merchants swallowing a loss of several per cent to accept a credit card. Did you know you can use your credit card at Mt. Everest Base Camp where they still keep the old hand held non electronic sliding machines to accept your credit card?

Even so, a person with cash will get a better deal in a country where people like to bargain. The problem, as brokedown noted, is that many thieves will be about.

Jan

Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
Jul 2, 2015 - 12:01pm PT
And yes, many conclusions about democracy can and will be drawn from this. Of course original Greek democracy included only a small percentage of the total inhabitants. Perhaps universal suffrage democracy is what doesn't work. Now that's a sobering thought.
JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
Jul 2, 2015 - 12:11pm PT
yep, you really have to feel for those people who have bills to pay over $100,000.

Ken, that depends on the size of the business you operate. When I was a sole practitioner, I didn't have bills that size. When I was a partner in a law firm, our payroll exceeded that twice a month. I can think of plenty of one-owner businesses with expenses exceeding $100,000.00 weekly, and I suspect you can, too.

Of equal importance, some people have bank accounts that size because they are savers. My wife's parents would fall into that category. Their bank accounts represent the proceeds from sale of their house and of their business. It's all they have to live on. Arbitrarily confiscating 40% of accounts above a given size may comport with rough justice, but it creates penty of real injustice.

John
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Jul 2, 2015 - 02:32pm PT
yep, you really have to feel for those people who have bills to pay over $100,000.

Ken, that depends on the size of the business you operate. When I was a sole practitioner, I didn't have bills that size. When I was a partner in a law firm, our payroll exceeded that twice a month. I can think of plenty of one-owner businesses with expenses exceeding $100,000.00 weekly, and I suspect you can, too.

Of equal importance, some people have bank accounts that size because they are savers. My wife's parents would fall into that category. Their bank accounts represent the proceeds from sale of their house and of their business. It's all they have to live on. Arbitrarily confiscating 40% of accounts above a given size may comport with rough justice, but it creates penty of real injustice.

John

John, I wasn't responding to the business issue, but the personal one.

However, you seem to be missing the big picture---which is the collapse of an entire counties' economy, and an effort to prevent that.

If you think that the collapse of an economy and financial system does not result in REAL injustice, you aren't getting the big picture.

What is the alternative? why is it only when people of means are affected, Republicans get upset, and offer no alternatives.

"Let them eat cake"
looking sketchy there...

Social climber
Lassitude 33
Jul 2, 2015 - 02:56pm PT
So, Jan, have any meaningful studies been done on why the more temperate the climate the the less financially temperate the people are?

A long debunked theory.

But, if you believe that, So Cal should be a poster child for intemperate finances.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 2, 2015 - 03:38pm PT
Well Jan seems to agree with me plus I guarantee I can compile a much lengthier list of
countries to support my theory than you can to disprove it. Besides, Iceland and Eire
combined are only half of Greece's population.

As for SoCal perhaps you forgot Orange County's travails? Orange County alone would
be the world's 14th largest country based on GDP if memory serves.
John Duffield

Mountain climber
New York
Jul 2, 2015 - 03:55pm PT
Like most boomers, I thought all of this would explode after I was dead. Looks like I'll get to watch the opening act, of the downfall of the Leftist fiscal agenda. After they won the social agenda.

I've read, many of the Pension Funds, rely on a growing stock market. They need investment income, in addition to dues, to maintain solvency.

But the good news, for the U.S. is, with low interest rates, the money available to buy stocks, remains large.
yanqui

climber
Balcarce, Argentina
Jul 2, 2015 - 06:44pm PT
Greece had been running deficits above 3% of GPD for almost 30 years before the crisis hit. But I don't see how it makes sense to call deficit spending "leftist". If need be, I can name any number of "leftist" governments that have had nice budget surpluses and any number of "right-wing" governments that have had massive deficits. The facts seem to indicate that running deficits is pretty much independent of "left" and "right". Overspending is just overspending. Too much of it for too long and you get in trouble.
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 3, 2015 - 09:34am PT
What has not been discussed here is the true definition of what we call money. Money, as defined through usage, is simply a medium of exchange and a means of discharging one's obligations. Since there is no longer any metallic backing whatsoever to paper currency, so called "Fiat Currency," the Central Banks simply print more of it generated out of thin air, and then it is "loaned" to governments with bonds issued to the Central Bank as "backing." The value of so called Fiat Currency is maintained for as long as the government is whose name the funny money is issued maintains the confidence of the masses. Sounds like smoke and mirrors? Yes it is exactly that. Financial crises such as the ones the Greek government is facing are truly contrived by the International Banksters who have loaned it billions of hot air Euros. The governments who have purchased the good will of their populations with seemingly limitless free handouts are feeling the squeeze, since the Banksters now want their pounds of flesh nearest the heart.

So how do we the people, the population needing our essentials and luxuries, resolve the problem created for us by this criminal banking system? Answer: through national bankruptcy, which seems to be the Greek answer to the looming crisis.

There is really nothing wrong with a barter economy, as all the participants are forcibly required to live within their means by economic reality.
Jan

Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
Jul 5, 2015 - 02:33pm PT

Greece just voted no as I was sure they would.

Get ready for a volatile financial scene on Monday!

You know the Greeks claim to have won WWII by tying up the Nazis who came to finish the job the Italian fascists started and couldn't complete, for so many weeks, that their actions ensured the Germans would be fighting on the Russian front in the winter.

Jan

Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
Jul 5, 2015 - 03:04pm PT
I don't see the U.S. dollar losing its status as the world's reserve currency anytime soon. The situation with Greece is going to tank the euro, the Japanese have been in stagnation for over 20 years, the Russians aren't doing all that well, and the Chinese stock market is diving despite big measures by their government to stop the slide. It's not that we're doing so well, it's that everyone else is doing worse.
Norton

Social climber
Jul 5, 2015 - 03:14pm PT
DOW futures now down 250 at the open in first reaction to the Greek vote of no.
jstan

climber
Topic Author's Reply - Jul 5, 2015 - 03:50pm PT
London fix for spot gold.

John Duffield

Mountain climber
New York
Jul 5, 2015 - 04:43pm PT
I think the damage done to government debt, far outweighs the damage to the stock market. Government debt, is presumed to be safe, hence low interest rates. So government debt, will become more dear, squeezing the other PIIGS.

I'm guessing, the stock market, is presumed to be volatile and will shrug this off in some days time.
stevep

Boulder climber
Salt Lake, UT
Jul 5, 2015 - 07:09pm PT
Grexit.

This will be interesting. Not least of all for the Greeks. They should never have been admitted to the EU.
I'd consider myself center-left economically. But it doesn't take a genius to see that with the amount of corruption and inefficiency they had that there would be problems. When you've got 75% of your workers retiring before 61(in some cases much earlier), some generous pensions, and high unemployment, you're going to have issues.
TGT

Social climber
So Cal
Jul 5, 2015 - 07:09pm PT
Fiat currency's value is based on the "full faith and credit" of the issuing nation.

When there is no faith,

there is no credit.

As for Jstan's chart,

Who is selling and why?



Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Jul 5, 2015 - 08:07pm PT
TGT, something to keep in mind when considering defaulting on the US debt, and throwing away that "full faith and credit"
Big Mike

Trad climber
BC
Jul 5, 2015 - 09:36pm PT
TGT, something to keep in mind when considering defaulting on the US debt, and throwing away that "full faith and credit"

Didn't Nixon already ruin that faith when he refused to return foreign governments gold in exchange for bonds? Why do you think your currency is called the "petro dollar"???
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 5, 2015 - 10:57pm PT
the Greeks claim to have won WWII by tying up the Nazis

That's the sort of deluded thinking that got them into this mess. The Nazis had, what, five
divisions in Greece vs 150 in Russia? LOL!

Yes, the equity markets will shrug this off by the end of the week and the bond markets
will too. Should actually help my domestic bond funds. China and Brasil are more worrisome.
China has the political will and resources to deal with their problems but Brasil doesn't have
either.
Jan

Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
Jul 5, 2015 - 11:11pm PT
According to the Greeks, it was a matter of timing.

The main point however, is that there is a history behind all this (as always in Europe) and the Greeks have little love for Germany still, because of the war, being invaded and the hundreds of thousands of Greeks who were starved by the Nazis. It's not being said by the politically correct American commentators, but that history had quite a lot to do with the no vote.

And speaking of who owes whom, the Germans were given very generous terms including forgiveness of the Nazi debt and the Marshall plan after WWII, something they balk at doing for the Greeks. The Germans worked hard for what they had but they also were given a lot of help, which they seem to have forgotten.
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
mammoth lakes ca
Jul 5, 2015 - 11:23pm PT
Payback is a bitch for the Greeks that pitch-forked those German paratroopers before they hit the ground...
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 6, 2015 - 07:36am PT
When people talk about "The Economy," they shortsightedly look at the stock market, which is NOT "The Economy." The real economy has more to do with the velocity of money, the manner in which debt is repaid, along with the number of defaults associated. Although others here believe that credit cards will be OK, PayPal has suspended processing Greek payments, and PayPal is credit card based.

The average Greek on the Street is going to be made to feel the pain DELIBERATELY! The ECB will be seeking payback time in order to punish this upstart country's thumbing it's nose at the coalition currently in power.

My bottom line "take" on the situation: don't visit Greece until any potential for violent demonstrations subsides. As I mentioned in an earlier post, the first thing to be hit is the energy sector, since Greece has no oil, no coal to speak of, and damned little remaining forest timber to convert into firewood. Cooking will be difficult since natural Gas distributed from Western Europe must be paid for in Euros. Enter Russia and it's nearly limitless energy reserves, and cheap natural gas.

I'm still waiting for the Fat Lady to sing before I plan my Greek Vacation. ;)
Jan

Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
Jul 6, 2015 - 07:41am PT
I argue the opposite. Now is the time for people who love Greece to visit and show their support. It's only Greek credit cards that have been cut off, not those from rich countries who can pay. Tourism is an easy way to circumvent the death hold of the foreign banks. If worried, carry cash.

Of course now is the time to visit Nepal also to show solidarity and help them back on their feet. Tough choice between two of my favorite countries.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 6, 2015 - 07:53am PT
Russia isn't going to help Greece, Putin is just playing Three Card Monte
against them to aggravate us vis a vis Ukraine. He doesn't need a naval
port in Greece a day's sail from his Crimean ports. Besides, why would he
want to sell gas to another country that cannot afford it?

Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 6, 2015 - 08:03am PT
Reilly-

It wouldn't cost Putin very much to drive his foot in the door by selling VERY CHEAP natural gas to Greece, since there's a real surplus. Western Europe is already heavily dependent on Russia's energy for sale. Whether or not the Greeks can pay for it, they then become vassals to the Bear to the East. This is a Geopolitical game being played out behind the scenes. There is far more to the overall situation than meets the eye of the average beholder...
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 6, 2015 - 08:15am PT
Reilly-

In response to one of your earlier posts---I too, believe that the Big Fat Greek Vacation will become considerably more expensive. It's simply a matter of supply versus demand. With a shortage of hard currency to buy food internationally, the Greek population will feel a pinch in the pocketbook. They will not be offering discounted meals and accommodations to tourists in order to lose money in the process.
johntp

Trad climber
socal
Jul 6, 2015 - 08:26am PT
I argue the opposite. Now is the time for people who love Greece to visit and show their support. It's only Greek credit cards that have been cut off, not those from rich countries who can pay.

The Greek population is living off the rest of the world already and provides a measly 2% of the Europe GNP. Damn if I want to spend any more to support a lazy nation that produces nothing and wants it all, gratis.
Jan

Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
Jul 6, 2015 - 08:49am PT
You can give your money to the already rich if that suits you. Personally, I sympathize more with the poor nations of the world who have to work many times harder to make up for their lack of resources and who have discovered in the process that money isn't evey thing.

At least it wasn't Greece who launched two major wars in the past century and brought misery to millions. You'd think that the Germans who suffered under the treaty of Versailles and their own economic ruin as a result, would have a little more compassion to the Greeks under the circumstances. Or that they would remember the generosity of the allies toward them after the war and be a little more humble.
johntp

Trad climber
socal
Jul 6, 2015 - 09:32am PT
Greece does not need to be poor, they have chosen the path of entitlement without working to be a viable economy. They support a corrupt government feeding off the EU.

What does Greece produce?
ruppell

climber
Jul 6, 2015 - 10:26am PT
What does Greece produce?

Wine, cheese and olives.
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Jul 6, 2015 - 10:58am PT
Perhaps the bigger object lesson here relates to the issue of corruption.

There are so many countries of the world, in which the progress of the country is stunted by the corruption. And it seems that the path to real prosperity of it's citizens is stymied by the corruption.

We've tried to take this on in Afghanistan and Iraq, unsuccessfully. Same in So. Viet Nam.

So here is a western country with the same problem. It should be the poster boy for how to eradicate corruption.....and yet, it is not. If corruption cannot be eliminated from Greece, how is it possible to eradicate it from, say, Africa?
johntp

Trad climber
socal
Jul 6, 2015 - 11:24am PT
What say Johntp? You think Germany paid the costs they created?


This has nothing to do with WW1 or WW2. It is about Greece taking economic reponsibility.

edit: in 2015

edit 2: WW2 ended in 1945; 70 years ago.
JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
Jul 6, 2015 - 11:50am PT
Perhaps the bigger object lesson here relates to the issue of corruption.

There are so many countries of the world, in which the progress of the country is stunted by the corruption. And it seems that the path to real prosperity of it's citizens is stymied by the corruption.

Ken, I agree that corruption stunts progress, but I think a bigger issue in Greece concerns the quip about running out of other people's money. The Greek economic system depends on entitlements that cannot be sustained in a steady state. In that circumstance, the system needs at least one of two things to sustain itself -- either a continuous source of "other people's money," or an expanding population of workers (with at least constant productivity).

Greece has run out of either option. In contrast, the Greek Tragedy (so to speak) differs from, say, the California situation because California's population of workers keeps increasing. In any case, without continuous bailouts, Greece will alter its economic system. The only question was whether the alteration will come from EU dictates, or from within Greece itself. The referendum's results mean that the Greeks themselves will decide.

I agree with Jan that increasing Greek receipts will help their economy, but I disagree with her comments about the Marshall Plan. The Germans, and everyone else who tried to bail Greece out, will take a haricut on their debt regardless of what they want. The difference is that the Marshall Plan gave aid in a way that allowed the recipients to build more sustainable economies. Nothing Germany can do will make the Greek economy sustainable without fundamental changes in Greece itself.

John
John Duffield

Mountain climber
New York
Jul 6, 2015 - 11:57am PT
Nothing Germany can do will make the Greek economy sustainable without fundamental changes in Greece itself

Agreed. One thing that struck me in Greece, was the number of people that hung out all day. Large plazas, with tables of people eating and drinking with no apparent need to work. Dunno how you back off of that.

Seems obvious the outcome. The smartest people leave Greece and the void is filled with Syrians, well sprinkled with ISIS. Not a new thing, prior to WW1, parts of Greece were in the Ottoman Empire.
JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
Jul 6, 2015 - 12:00pm PT
John, there's no easy answer, because the Greek system paid for workers to retire at 61 or earlier. The same thing will happen to Social Security unless we make some fundamental changes soon. Fortunately for the US, the required changes are small and doable. For Greece, with so many people changing their position in reliance on the promise of government support, the changes will be painful and difficult.

John
philo

climber
Jul 6, 2015 - 12:03pm PT
John Duffield

Mountain climber
New York
Jul 6, 2015 - 12:04pm PT
One of the worst things Bill Clinton did. I've forgotten which Republican it was, proposed a minor change to put SS on the right track. Clinton politicized that, running around saying "They want to take away your Social Security". Much more difficult to overcome that now.
Ward Trotter

Trad climber
Jul 6, 2015 - 12:32pm PT
Fortunately for the US, the required changes are small and doable

Perhaps these changes are doable when only one program is considered--but in a much broader sense the U.S. is clearly headed in much the same direction as Greece -- as evidenced primarily by many of the attitudes increasingly on display by more and more elements of the general population-- and certain politicians who benefit from spiraling levels of government dependence.
Totalitarianism is the eventual end game here if a course correction is not embarked on in this country as well. This is not hyperbole.
Ordinary citizens must be strong and independent in order to sustain any vestiges of a working democracy. They must be in charge of their own destiny --- but they have been forfeiting this to forces that are outside of their control. The debt clock is a perfect illustration of this.

Unfortunately I do not think that currently the collective intelligence is great enough-- absent a huge economic reset/collapse button being pushed.
JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
Jul 6, 2015 - 12:57pm PT
One of the worst things Bill Clinton did. I've forgotten which Republican it was, proposed a minor change to put SS on the right track. Clinton politicized that, running around saying "They want to take away your Social Security". Much more difficult to overcome that now.

Agreed. The demagoguery surrounding Social Security has made it more difficult to fix politically, but the changes are still miniscule compared with the sorts of changes Greece will eventually make, one way or another.

Philo, regardless of whether Germany forgives Greek debt or not, it won't get that debt repaid. More importantly, though, even if every creditor of the Greek government forgave the government's debt, Greece would still end up where it is now without very fundatmental changes to its entitlements.

John
Studly

Trad climber
WA
Jul 6, 2015 - 01:08pm PT
We are way more screwed then Greece, but are collectively just to dense to realize it yet. Especially since we are being spoon fed a special brand of bullshit from our news media.
Dave

Mountain climber
the ANTI-fresno
Jul 6, 2015 - 01:21pm PT
The difference is we have our own currency we can devalue. For now.
JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
Jul 6, 2015 - 01:49pm PT
The difference is we have our own currency we can devalue. For now.

Almost, but not quite. The Greeks could withdraw from the Euro, but their debt is is still largely payable in Euros. US debt is payable in dollars, so a devaluation has the effect of cutting payments on the debt. Our hands will be tied when creditors of the Treasury insist on repayment in a different currency.

John
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 6, 2015 - 01:51pm PT
I hate the word entitlements.

Entitlements = handouts. The usual result is even more people looking to become entitled.

Our entitlement programs are more insidious than the Greeks retirement programs; at least they had to do some work along the pathway to obtain them. Our chickens will come home to roost in the financial arena sooner that most would expect. The Greek default is not even a pimple on the butt of the $18.5 Trillion U.S. National Debt, but the ramifications are tremendous.

Central Banks = Loan Shark racketeers on a massive scale.
John Duffield

Mountain climber
New York
Jul 6, 2015 - 02:02pm PT
Our entitlement programs are more insidious than the Greeks retirement programs; at least they had to do some work along the pathway to obtain them. Our chickens will come home to roost in the financial arena sooner that most would expect. The Greek default is not even a pimple on the butt of the $18.5 Trillion U.S. National Debt, but the ramifications are tremendous.

Agreed again. There are people offering words of cheer today, about how different we are than Greece.

But the National debt has doubled in 6 years. The numbers are mind boggling. It's impossible for anyone to know how it will turn out. The numbers committed going forward, are much higher.

Meanwhile, the swine in Washington, award themselves ever higher benefits, raises and bonuses. It's completely out of control. At some point, the "Millenial" generation, which is on the hook for this largesse, will cut it off. They will have to.



Norton

Social climber
Jul 6, 2015 - 02:12pm PT
Since my days as a Stockbroker in the 1970s and continuing to today, the Conventional Wisdom among the Serious People was that there would be Terrible Consequences for
a growing US National Debt.

You will see, they said, the Chickens will come Home to Roost they said.

Such debt is "unsustainable" they sagely intoned, and the consequences would be horrific,
resulting in the Default of the United States of America.

And why exactly would this End of Times occur I would ask?

Because rising debt absolutely mean rising inflation and rising interest rates.

And you see, it is those inevitable sky high interest rates that will make America default.

Back then and until about 15 years ago I accepted such sage and deep analysis.

But as time went on and on, and this constantly predicted Death of the US Dollar and
Default, and rising rates did NOT HAPPEN, i searched for reasons of why not.

How could the Smart Money be so, damned WRONG, for so long?

And now with a 18 Trillion dollar national debt, interest rates are at the virtually the lowest level in US history, arguably back to colonial times in real terms.

The US Dollar is trading strongly and consistently in the mid 90s and the US Stock Market
has more than doubled in the past seven years, the economy has come out of recession
and is adding million of jobs.

Why if one didn't know better (sarcasm intended) one would think Goldilocks was in charge!


I have arrived at my own causes and conclusions for the reasons behind this which no one other than my wife cares to listen to.

So can I invite this thread's posters to take a shot as to why Conventional Wisdom has been so very, very wrong? And please, spare the inevitable forecasts of doom and gloom.

Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 6, 2015 - 02:14pm PT
Another thing most here have not thought all the way through: is was never money that was "loaned" to Greece, but credit. The ability to receive forgiveness of debts incurred. Yet the ECB wants to force a lower standard of living and "austerity" on the Greek populace for feeding at the trough so conveniently placed in front of them by their government. Governments LIKE dependent populations, since they are normally servile and mostly obedient. Cut off the food supply and riots usually result. Wait until the Greek retirement payments stop coming and then tell me you want a Big Fat Greek Vacation. Not.
TWP

Trad climber
Mancos, CO & Bend, OR
Jul 6, 2015 - 02:16pm PT
Norton:

Just go ahead and tell us the cause and your conclusions. No need for trial balloons of others' opinions for you to shoot out of the air.
John Duffield

Mountain climber
New York
Jul 6, 2015 - 02:51pm PT
So can I invite this thread's posters to take a shot as to why Conventional Wisdom has been so very, very wrong? And please, spare the inevitable forecasts of doom and gloom.

Seems the world dictators and other assorted thieves, loan us their money, virtually interest free for protection, or so I've been told.

If this is so, the Dennis Hastert and FIFA cases, would be a worse threat, than Greece. Suddenly, the Feds are looking a gift horse in the mouth. Where did you get that money? Who are you giving it to?

But no one knows. If anyone actually knew, they would be richer than Buffet.

yanqui

climber
Balcarce, Argentina
Jul 6, 2015 - 04:48pm PT
ummmm ... I hate to sound serious and all but right now the US is spending (with interest rates at a historical low) about 230 billion of its yearly budget (i.e. directly spending your tax dollars) shelling out interest payments on the debt. About half this money goes out to foreign interests. Not exactly chicken feed.
SteveW

Trad climber
The state of confusion
Jul 6, 2015 - 08:10pm PT

Hey Brokedown
Aren't you collecting Social Security?
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
mammoth lakes ca
Jul 6, 2015 - 08:39pm PT
All of the doom and gloom of financial armegedon would disappear if Obama would lower taxes for the wealthiest 1 percenters who could then create more jobs...And social security is just a pyramid scheme propped up to keep chruches from taking care of the poor...It's time to let the poor drown and the wealthy realize their higher place in our society...
SteveW

Trad climber
The state of confusion
Jul 6, 2015 - 09:37pm PT

Yep, rotting johnny, you got the bull by the horns.
Dripping with sarcasm.
JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
Jul 6, 2015 - 09:43pm PT
Believe it or not, I generally agree with Norton on the issue of U.S. debt. Again, though, our debt is not a major issue as long as we can pay it off in dollars. All we need to do is inflate, and the debt/GDP ratio becomes sustainable. The Greeks, in contrast, don't currently have that option, and their government finances have no obvious way to right themselves so easily. Until our creditors demand payment in something else, our debt and Greece's debt are two different species.

The debts of smaller U.S. governmental units are a different story, however, because they don't have the same power to print money in which their debts are payable. On top of that, those smaller governmental entities have more real debt than what's on their books, because their pension liabilities are another form of debt. They can't keep increasing their debt/GDP ratios without Chapter 9 looming its head.

John
Majid_S

Mountain climber
Karkoekstan
Jul 6, 2015 - 09:56pm PT
Death of Euro and EC is about to start with one link breaking after another

The lazy Europeans (Except Germans) have to pay the price followed by another WWIII
Curt

climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
Jul 6, 2015 - 10:24pm PT
Whether Greece stays with the Euro or leaves and reintroduces the Drachma, there is no way in hell they will ever repay their current debt. So, the sh#t is going to hit the fan either way. As far as the US economy goes, it matters very little--we have almost no financial exposure to Greece and the economic ramifications will be similar either way. I also agree with others who have noted that the real 800b Gorilla in the room right now is China.

Curt
TomCochrane

Trad climber
Santa Cruz Mountains and Monterey Bay
Jul 7, 2015 - 12:49am PT
The following Travel Advice has changed or been added since our last update ( 4 Jul 2015 12:04:21 EST):

* Greece
http://www.smartraveller.gov.au/zw-cgi/view/Advice/Greece

Current Advice Level: "Exercise normal safety precautions"
Change Summary:
Greek banks remain closed and are scheduled to re-open on 9 July (local time). Visitors should be aware that shortages of essential supplies are being reported, including of medical supplies. Make sure you have more than one means of payment with you (cash, debit cards, credit cards), and make sure you have enough money to cover emergencies and any unexpected delays. The level of the advice has not changed. We continue to advise Australians to exercise normal safety precautions in Greece.
TomCochrane

Trad climber
Santa Cruz Mountains and Monterey Bay
Jul 7, 2015 - 01:44am PT
There is a lot of financial news that is just misdirecting attention from huge unconfrontable problems. Any news about a financial recovery is just phony statistical manipulation. The bottom line is the US dollar could collapse at any time, leaving us all hanging out to dry.

Alan Greenspan recently announced that the Federal Debt at $18T is grossly underestimated based upon long term US commitments. That is greater than the global GNP and could never conceivable be paid. Just servicing that debt consumes most federal income...if you overlook the monthly billions of newly issued fiat funds...such as used to pay monthly Social Security. It's nice to be able to pay all your debts by just creating new money out of nothing...but the rest of the world is getting pretty tired of watching that happen....so much for the myth of a strong dollar...

China's Tienanmen Square has a huge electronic score card displaying the US National Debt...and they have big celebrations when the numbers tick up another trillion dollars.

Washington's response to this problem is trying to start an insane WWIII with Russia and China, so we don't have to pay the debt. However Russia and China have been playing the chess board smarter than Washington, dodging a whole series of invitations to go to war.

Meanwhile the US Federal Reserve private bank is caught between a rock and a hard place.

If they cease artificially manipulating the gold markets, the value of gold will sky rocket and the value of the dollar will plummet. (You can see gold value driven down almost daily during the first few minutes of markets opening...i.e. on Kitco.com)

However continuing to manipulate the price of gold to a level near the current cost to mine it...i.e. $1200 oz...allows the BRICS countries to buy all the gold they want at very low cost relatively to its real value in terms of fiat currencies.

So when China announces the Yuan as the only gold-based means of global exchange, the dollar is dead as the world reference currency and as a viable means of exchange. China's main incentive for not crashing the dollar is their outright ownership of much of the USA. So they are demanding real goods, such as gold and large portions of US mainland real estate that they are turning into Chinese enterprise zones, so they don't have to ship goods to US markets by sea.

Meanwhile China is establishing military control of the South China Sea and its petroleum resources. Washington has demanded they cease doing this. China's response is that if Washington pursues that demand there will be a war in the South China Sea.

The highly respected consulting firm McKinsey & Company recently did a study on the real value of gold relative to global fiat currencies. They added up the purported value of all fiat currencies and divided that by global gold quantities. The result was $33,400/oz. So by that measure you could buy a pretty nice car for a single one ounce gold coin.

If you have any significant savings in the hands of the bankers, now is your chance to get them under your personal control
couchmaster

climber
Jul 7, 2015 - 06:18am PT
So Tom, although I don't disagree with everything you said, I'm curious how you would you answer Norton's question above?

John asked (paragraph spacing edit version):
"Since my days as a Stockbroker in the 1970s and continuing to today, the Conventional Wisdom among the Serious People was that there would be Terrible Consequences for a growing US National Debt. You will see, they said, the Chickens will come Home to Roost they said. Such debt is "unsustainable" they sagely intoned, and the consequences would be horrific, resulting in the Default of the United States of America.

And why exactly would this End of Times occur I would ask? Because rising debt absolutely mean rising inflation and rising interest rates. And you see, it is those inevitable sky high interest rates that will make America default. Back then and until about 15 years ago I accepted such sage and deep analysis.

But as time went on and on, and this constantly predicted Death of the US Dollar and Default, and rising rates did NOT HAPPEN, i searched for reasons of why not. How could the Smart Money be so, damned WRONG, for so long? And now with a 18 Trillion dollar national debt, interest rates are at the virtually the lowest level in US history, arguably back to colonial times in real terms.

The US Dollar is trading strongly and consistently in the mid 90s and the US Stock Market has more than doubled in the past seven years, the economy has come out of recession and is adding million of jobs. Why if one didn't know better (sarcasm intended) one would think Goldilocks was in charge!


I have arrived at my own causes and conclusions for the reasons behind this which no one other than my wife cares to listen to. So can I invite this thread's posters to take a shot as to why Conventional Wisdom has been so very, very wrong? And please, spare the inevitable forecasts of doom and gloom."



Tom Cochrane said:
" Jul 7, 2015 - 01:44am PT
There is a lot of financial news that is just misdirecting attention from huge unconfrontable problems. Any news about a financial recovery is just phony statistical manipulation. The bottom line is the US dollar could collapse at any time, leaving us all hanging out to dry.

Alan Greenspan recently announced that the Federal Debt at $18T is grossly underestimated based upon long term US commitments. That is greater than the global GNP and could never conceivable be paid. Just servicing that debt consumes most federal income...if you overlook the monthly billions of newly issued fiat funds...such as used to pay monthly Social Security. It's nice to be able to pay all your debts by just creating new money out of nothing...but the rest of the world is getting pretty tired of watching that happen....so much for the myth of a strong dollar...

China's Tienanmen Square has a huge electronic score card displaying the US National Debt...and they have big celebrations when the numbers tick up another trillion dollars.

Washington's response to this problem is trying to start an insane WWIII with Russia and China, so we don't have to pay the debt. However Russia and China have been playing the chess board smarter than Washington, dodging a whole series of invitations to go to war.

Meanwhile the US Federal Reserve private bank is caught between a rock and a hard place.

If they cease artificially manipulating the gold markets, the value of gold will sky rocket and the value of the dollar will plummet. (You can see gold value driven down almost daily during the first few minutes of markets opening...i.e. on Kitco.com)

However continuing to manipulate the price of gold to a level near the current cost to mine it...i.e. $1200 oz...allows the BRICS countries to buy all the gold they want at very low cost relatively to its real value in terms of fiat currencies.

So when China announces the Yuan as the only gold-based means of global exchange, the dollar is dead as the world reference currency and as a viable means of exchange. China's main incentive for not crashing the dollar is their outright ownership of much of the USA. So they are demanding real goods, such as gold and large portions of US mainland real estate that they are turning into Chinese enterprise zones, so they don't have to ship goods to US markets by sea.

Meanwhile China is establishing military control of the South China Sea and its petroleum resources. Washington has demanded they cease doing this. China's response is that if Washington pursues that demand there will be a war in the South China Sea.

The highly respected consulting firm McKinsey & Company recently did a study on the real value of gold relative to global fiat currencies. They added up the purported value of all fiat currencies and divided that by global gold quantities. The result was $33,400/oz. So by that measure you could buy a pretty nice car for a single one ounce gold coin.

If you have any significant savings in the hands of the bankers, now is your chance to get them under your personal control "

John Duffield

Mountain climber
New York
Jul 7, 2015 - 06:42am PT
Death of Euro and EC is about to start with one link breaking after another

Indeed. I think the Greece situation, will accelerate the demise of Italy and Spain. Greece, isn't much but those are bigger economically. If I was living on a Pension in either, I'd be looking at my options.
Jan

Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
Jul 7, 2015 - 07:41am PT
I believe the real worth of a country is not in its gold, but in its people. I've lived in both Germany and Japan which were both flattened and starving 70 years ago and it was the people who built their countries up from ashes. Both had outside help which just means it would have taken them longer otherwise, but the results I believe, would have been the same.

The U.S. is capable of great things when we make up our mind what we want to do. The problem now is not our lack of gold but our lack of vision and political will to convey a clear message of what needs doing in order to motivate our country.
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 7, 2015 - 08:30am PT
Just a quick response to SteveW: yes I am collecting Socialist Security. The amount returned from what I paid into the system is pretty abysmal. I don't equate Socialist Security with "entitlements," although for some reason the politicians are wont to do so...

The so-called Social Security Trust Fund was pillaged by the Johnson Administration, nearly bankrupting it by the late 1960's. That's what "paid for" the Great Society.

That's one of the reasons I continued working for 6 years past "normal" retirement age, and still run my rare coin and precious metals business online.
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 7, 2015 - 08:50am PT
Here are a few sage words regarding precious metals in relation to the Fiat currencies:

PMs are currently being highly (and illegally!) manipulated in an effort to give the currencies an aura of strength. This is done through the trading of contracts for future deliveries, and no metals are actually changing hands in a physical manner...except for a one-way movement to both Russia and China. Between these 2 strong buyers of gold and silver, they have purchased nearly 70% of this year's production of the metals. Then...throw in India, another very aggressive and well heeled buyer. The BRICS are steadily preparing for the day in which they will, in an overnight move, destroy the dollar as the world's reserve currency. That is nearly a certainty, not a matter of "if," but more of a "when."

Another mechanism by which the U.S. maintains some level of financial stability is through the creation of massive derivative markets, wherein enormous amounts of debt are being sold as "investments."

When the markets finally give way under the burdens of unsustainable debt...unpayable...it isn't going to be pretty.

Note added in Edit: There is a fantastic opportunity to stock up on silver today as the spot price has been manipulated below $15 per Troy ounce...a market low for the past 5 years. Take heed, my friends!
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 7, 2015 - 08:53am PT
John D.

I've actually been considering either Italy or the Eastern portion (Saxony) of Germany as a place to look for some real estate in the future. Could be some amazing bargains there...

Note added in Edit: Don't forget to add in Ireland and Portugal to your list of countries teetering "on the edge" of default.
Jan

Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
Jul 7, 2015 - 09:28am PT
I have no doubt that the Bric's have illusions of breaking the dollar as the reserve currency. The question is what would they replace it with? Who in the world has full faith in the integrity of the Russian, Chinese, or Brazilian governments?

i just finished reading Greg Crouch's excellent book, China's Wings, about aviation in China and the flights over the hump to resupply Chiang kai shek's forces during WWII and to try to shore up his government. Many of those flights contained whole plane loads of printed money due to the inflation despite the fact that we also flew many flights of solid gold bars to him because he demanded payment in gold and we agreed. The outcome was that his family ended up with the gold in Taiwan and Mao ended up in control of China. The Chinese people had more faith in Mao and his vision than they did in Chiang kai shek and his gold.

Americans for all our faults still have a corner on vision and integrity compared to the opposition. The Europeans have vision and integrity, but no unity. That leaves us.
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 7, 2015 - 09:57am PT
Jan-

The Chinese have recently become one of the countries involved in the "fixing" of the gold price on the London exchange. They are ultimately planning to become the dominant country in so doing...

The Russians are complicit as well, and either the Rouble or Yuan could ultimately replace the Petrodollar. China already hold an enormous amount of the U.S. Debt in bonds, which allows them to exert unbelievable economic pressure. It may not be this year, but the Chinese are extremely patient...as you well know.
jstan

climber
Topic Author's Reply - Jul 7, 2015 - 11:45am PT
I'll ask an obvious but still impertinent question of the gold bugs here.

What portion of your net worth is presently in gold? Physical gold.

There is a new factor pushing the fixed income investor toward gold. Money has next to no time value presently and I don't see saving rates going much above 3%. When you have enough, three percent is about equal to zero, which is also the amount of risk you are willing to accept. But unexpected cash flow demands can be a problem.



Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 7, 2015 - 12:11pm PT
John-

Standard bank savings account interest rates are generally around 0.05%, effectively zero.

I have an interesting portfolio outside of real estate; almost entirely based on Medieval German States coinage with an emphasis on rare gold coins and Silver Thalers.

For giggles, I've posted some photos of some of my holdings.




To answer the question: yes, I put my money where my mouth is...
JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
Jul 7, 2015 - 12:18pm PT
The U.S. is capable of great things when we make up our mind what we want to do. The problem now is not our lack of gold but our lack of vision and political will to convey a clear message of what needs doing in order to motivate our country.

Jan, what can our country (assuming you mean the USA) do to bring Greece out of its economic position? Its economy didn't get flattened by war. It got flattened by promising benefits for which it can't pay, and having too few workers to support pensioners. It's like the joke about how many psychologists it takes to change a light bulb: one, but the bulb must want to change.

Unless the Greeks have the political will to change their governmental benefits to make them affordable, there is nothing any outside government can do to fix their problem.

John
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 7, 2015 - 12:21pm PT
^^^^^^John: agreed; the victims of the handout mentality are like alcoholics; once addicted to freebies, hard to go back to work.
Jan

Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
Jul 7, 2015 - 12:56pm PT
John and brokedown, I agree. Only the Greeks can fix their own mess. What's unfair is that the current government has only had six months to try to figure out solutions to problems made by previous governments over many years.

There's an interesting article in the New York Times today.

Greek ‘No’ May Have Its Roots in Heroic Myths and Real Resistance

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/07/world/europe/greek-no-vote-may-have-its-roots-in-heroic-myths-and-real-resistance.html?action=click&contentCollection=International%20Business&module=RelatedCoverage®ion=Marginalia&pgtype=article

Personally, I think we will have our own hands full fixing our economy for the next few years. The aging of the population is a world wide problem but nobody is going to have more difficulties supporting their aged than China because of its one child policy. They're going to eat up their trade surplus and their gold doing that.
SteveW

Trad climber
The state of confusion
Jul 7, 2015 - 01:00pm PT

Thannks, Rodger.
Too many people call SS an entitlement. . .

(I'm not sure it was just the Great Society--how about continued
obscene defense spending by the US). . .
John Duffield

Mountain climber
New York
Jul 7, 2015 - 01:07pm PT
The Defense Industry is obscene and why I won't vote for the Republicans this upcoming cycle. Though the Democrats are in it up to their necks as well. That F-35 a case in point.
JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
Jul 7, 2015 - 01:11pm PT
The aging of the population is a world wide problem but nobody is going to have more difficulties supporting their aged than China because of its one child policy. They're going to eat up their trade surplus and their gold doing that.

Exactly, Jan. Japan already came up against that problem about ten years ago. Western Europe is seeing it in various places as well. One quibble, though: The issue isn't so much the trade surplus as it is the balance of payments, so while I agree with your comments about gold (or "hard currency" generally), I'm not so sure about their trade surplus.

John
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 7, 2015 - 01:36pm PT
John D. --You can blame the F35 problems and costs straight on the Marine Corps, and their stupid requirement for VTOL capability in an air superiority type fighter. The F35 is similar to the old joke: a camel is a horse designed by a committee. Trying at taxpayer expense to build a "one size fits all" warplane didn't seem to work out very well, did it? At $325 Million a copy, it is obscenely expensive. It doesn't fly very well, is consistently outmaneuvered by the aging F16 in mock dogfights. My prediction: cancellation of the project after fewer than 25% of them are built. As well it should be... It does all the tasks asked of it, but NONE of them well. It would get a helluva lot of young American pilots killed in combat.
Norton

Social climber
Jul 7, 2015 - 01:43pm PT
Population

Food for interesting conversation!

On this issue I have to disagree with the seemingly consensus opinion that increasing population is "necessary" to ....to what exactly..to somehow further human existence?

to insure capitalism's continued profitability?

My feeling is the opposite, that actually decreasing human populations is the "best"
way to raise the quality of life for future generations

I guess I look at it largely in terms of human misery, rather than buying into the arguably
strong position that more will prosper from relentless reproduction

perhaps more will prosper, numerically, but many more will also endure lives of poverty and misery- yes those of us in the First World are doing fine but many more in the Third
World live horrible lives



the old Star Trek saying: the needs of the many outweigh the needs(wants) of the few
makes me believe that far fewer humans can live better lives than many humans can

without going into a great deal more rambling detail...China is making the right decision

I think we should have staying in the trees, we ate, sh!t, had sex, and died

not all evolution is for the best, and in the case of us evolved primates I have my doubts
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 7, 2015 - 02:30pm PT
Norton-

The big issue facing the world is, indeed, out of control population growth. Here at home, we continue subsidization of children born out of wedlock, and seemingly encourage same? I'm actually a compassionate individual, but not stupid. If a teenage girl becomes pregnant and has a child w/o means of support, we pay her welfare payments. Fine. The more illegitimate offspring she has, the more we pay. Fine. I can forgive a single simple mistake, and even consider society lending her a helping hand(out). A second pregnancy should be penalized, not subsidized, so a deal with the woman should be made: in order to receive ongoing financial support, she must VOLUNTARILY submit to sterilization. Two mistakes is simply one too many. Massive financial penalties then ensue. Third mistake? Forced sterilization as in China.
John Duffield

Mountain climber
New York
Jul 7, 2015 - 02:49pm PT
Agreed. A generation of mandatory birth control did a 180 on Chinas economy. They're too wealthy now. All we can do, is moan about the islands they're building.
Jan

Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
Jul 7, 2015 - 03:15pm PT
I think our moaning about their island building has more to do with our fatigue from fighting seemingly endless wars in the Middle East than entitlement economics.

As far as China's 180, they got fast results but pushed the problems further down the line. Too many old people or too many young are both problems. We all need to strive for societies with only replacement levels of population. How we get from the growth based capitalism we have now to a more sustainable economics is the big question. I somehow think it won't happen until it's forced on us, probably by depleting energy supplies.
JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
Jul 7, 2015 - 03:25pm PT
the old Star Trek saying: the needs of the many outweigh the needs(wants) of the few
makes me believe that far fewer humans can live better lives than many humans can

In a steady state, you're right, Norton. The problem is that the population of recipients is increasing, while the population of donors is not (or is even decreasing).

John
John Duffield

Mountain climber
New York
Jul 7, 2015 - 03:36pm PT
Everyone is making moves right now. Vacations getting cancelled. In a month, Europe will be a different place.
TGT

Social climber
So Cal
Jul 7, 2015 - 05:52pm PT
When you are paying one in five of your citizens to not work,

disaster lurks!

Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 7, 2015 - 07:33pm PT
That "old Star Trek saying," is simply a paraphrase right out of the Communist Manifesto. That really didn't turn out well for the rulers of the Soviet Union after only 70 years.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Jul 7, 2015 - 08:21pm PT
That old Star Trek saying is simply a paraphrase right out of the Communist Manifesto.

Your points are well taken. Actually, it's even worse than you say (if that could be possible). The line is the core principle of the failed ethical theory of utilitarianism.

So, let's see....

Communism -- failed
Utilitarianism -- failed

Yup, this is a core principle worth killing a country for. Fight on, Greeks. Fight on. Stand firm for principle!
Jan

Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
Jul 7, 2015 - 08:51pm PT
Here's another interpretation I haven't seen before.

By Ana Swanson
July 1


Once the Greeks joined the euro in 2002, they could borrow at very cheap rates given they were now borrowing under the continent's implicit guarantee, and they dramatically over-borrowed.

"But given that there was high growth, no one was really worried about it,” says Matthias Matthijs, a professor at Johns Hopkins University SAIS and co-editor of the new book, “The Future of the Euro,"

Between 1998 and 2007, Greece's annual economic growth per person was 3.8 percent -- the second fastest rate in Europe.

In the mid-1990s, even before it came into existence, markets made a huge bet that the euro would be a reality. Specifically, investors, many in northern Europe, bet that interest rates in northern and southern Europe would converge. At the time, interest rates in southern Europe were much higher than in northern Europe, simply because people thought investing in countries like Greece was much riskier than investing in countries like Germany.

In anticipation of the euro zone, investors put lots of money in the cheap, high-yielding bonds of southern Europe. That helped to drive down yields and fueled borrowing and an economic boom in southern countries.

Ultimately, investors were right – Greek interest rates on 10-year bonds fell from around 20 percent in the early 1990s to only 3 percent in 2002. “They made a lot of money in the north betting against higher interest rates there. That fueled the boom, before the euro came, that overheated these economies."

Then the financial crisis hit. As economic growth slowed, competitive weaknesses and unsustainable debt loads suddenly became glaringly obvious.

In short, many in the north pushed for a financial regime that didn't fit the Greek economy, because they personally stood to benefit. Many rightly blame the Greeks for its current crisis, but some of the blame belongs farther north as well, he argues.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/07/01/the-forgotten-origins-of-greeces-terrible-crisis-will-make-you-think-twice-about-whos-to-blame/

jstan

climber
Topic Author's Reply - Jul 7, 2015 - 09:40pm PT
Stalin had to have known when we would have an operational nuclear weapon. WWII was a study in the sacrifice of Russian lives. The war on Germany's eastern front was a cauldron leaving absolutely no one untouched. Berlin had to fall to Russian troops and 400,000 casualties was an acceptable price. We need to learn from this how careful our choices must be, in future, when we decide to piss people off, That's lesson one. If confirmation were needed we might remember Eisenhower's allowing our CIA to destabilize a democratically elected government in Iran.

Rights are never remembered. (Marshall plan not excepted.)

Wrongs are never forgotten.

Gold bugs are making the argument here that the US's fiat currency may soon collapse. They don't say when. When will the dollar cease to be the world's reserve currency? If the US still enjoyed the approbation gained us by the Marshall Plan maybe not soon. But I ask you. Who could have confidence in a nation willing to put Sarah Palin one heart beat away from the briefcase with the red button? This is a huge question. Immense. One obvious result? The reserve currency will go through a period where it is somehow shared. When one of the owners acts flakey, corrective action may be applied. When correction is applied we can expect to see things for which we are not prepared.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 7, 2015 - 10:16pm PT
This is a huge question.

Only if you subscribe to the belief that the president drives the economy. Yes, he or she has
some effect but the Fed chairperson arguably has more effect. Now if the President did
something meaningful, like cut the Pentagon budget by 50%, then he would have a real
impact and legacy.
jstan

climber
Topic Author's Reply - Jul 7, 2015 - 10:39pm PT
No I subscribe to the idea that a president can cause us to invade other countries or to start wars.

For which there is no logical justification.
BLUEBLOCR

Social climber
joshua tree
Jul 7, 2015 - 11:03pm PT
For which there is no logical justification.

i thought you were a evolutionist? shouldn't you have an understanding of, eat or be eaten, and the strongest will survive, and all that? We are just animals after all?

Doesn't a proud of lion's go after an ante of antelope?

there's no logical justification in the economy either. i guess that's why you scientist don't understand economic's?
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 8, 2015 - 06:32am PT
Jstan-

Stalin had several "moles" deep within the Manhattan Project, and was fully aware of the development of the A-Bomb. When he was informed by Truman of the fact at Potsdam, he was not at all surprised. As a result, all aid to the Soviet Union was terminated--that same afternoon. Harry Truman was no dunce, and unlike grievously ill Roosevelt, viewed Stalin as a real threat to the West; as did both General George Patton and General I.D. White, who against Eisenhower's orders--occupied the American Sector of Berlin.

Presidents DO make Foreign Policy decisions, and thereby get us into wars. As a corollary to the previous statement, making wrong Foreign Policy decisions can make the subsequent wars even bloodier than they would have been had the initial decision been the correct one.
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
mammoth lakes ca
Jul 8, 2015 - 07:09am PT
Reilly...If we cut the pentagon budget by 50% who will protect America's corporate interests abroad..? Sorry for the sarcasm...
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 8, 2015 - 07:19am PT
rj-

Simply eliminating the F35 program alone, would save hundreds of billion dollars a year. Does the phrase "boondoggle" ring a bell in this regard for the F35? There was little wrong with the basic airframe design--just the additional weight and complexity of the VTOL capability added to expense and degraded combat performance. My recollection is that the cost of the F35 program was something around $735 Billion?

The Generals and Admirals simply LOVE fancy new toys to "Command." The more expensive they are, the higher the prestige!
John Duffield

Mountain climber
New York
Jul 8, 2015 - 07:24am PT
I was shocked to see, they've wasted so much on obscene pensions for Generals and Admirals, plus the F35, they need to offload 40,000 soldiers. No wonder we're consuming Sec Dods so fast.
John Duffield

Mountain climber
New York
Jul 8, 2015 - 07:27am PT
Meanwhile, the UK shows the way.

A recent election, was a Conservative blowout. During the election, the Left made a big issue of minumum wage. In fact, the Conservatives increased it by more than the Left wanted. A bigger tax base fits well with their economic moves.

Additionally, they've cut off child support beyond the 3rd child. No more will it be a Jihadist breeding ground.
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
mammoth lakes ca
Jul 8, 2015 - 07:29am PT
Brokedown.....Your preaching to the choir here on boondogglism...I have a friend that was hired to clean house at NASA back in the mid 80's...He's got some entertaining stories on government waste and employees camped out at the expresso machine... Seems that 735 billion could go to better use , like education..?
Jan

Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
Jul 8, 2015 - 07:40am PT
Having worked around the military for 35 years overseas, I can certainly agree with brokedown about generals and their toys. During the Reagan years they had so much money they didn't know what to do with, they spent part of it gilding all the chandeliers with 18 carat gold in the officer's club in Mildenhall, England. Of course they wrote it off to the Soviet threat. Eventually because it was so excessive, people did get court martialed for it after it was reported in the European Stars and Stripes but the symbolism remains.

In Okinawa I saw waste almost as ridiculous during those years and at the end of the fiscal year, they would put out the word that they had too many florescent lights, wrenches or whatever, and couldn't ask for a bigger budget the next year with a surplus so everyone go down to a certain hangar and pick free supplies.

I saw pilots burn up brand new motel furniture from several BOQ rooms one night in an outdoor barbeque pit when they were drunk and nothing was done "because they're pilots you know, they have to let off steam". And the amount of extra fire extinguishers that had to be bought as drunk pilots love to spray each other with fire extinguishers when they get drunk, was astronomical. And this is all the small stuff. Imagine what they can boondoggle on their expensive toys in addition to the $200 coffee pots and their $600 toilet seats.

Edit: In contrast to the Air Force which is the most wasteful, the Marine Corps prides itself on returning part of its budget to Congress every year.
Norton

Social climber
Jul 8, 2015 - 07:51am PT
Additionally, they've cut off child support beyond the 3rd child.

now that I LIKE !

government should not have a responsibility for irresponsibility
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 8, 2015 - 07:52am PT
rj-

I suspect the boondoggle-ism also extends into the "Education Industry," as well. The "savings" from cutting the excesses of the Military-Industrial Complex should be used to help rebuild our more basic industries and putting men and women back to work in other than service industries. This could be done through better tax credits for onshore capital investments and in rebuilding our infrastructure of bridges, roads, and highways, for example. Our highways are vastly inferior to those in Germany and to some extent, Italy. The Interstate system was built in he 1960s--on the cheap--and the system is slowly crumbling nationwide. This would create more construction and blue collar jobs, in addition to "giving something back" to the taxpayers.
Norton

Social climber
Jul 8, 2015 - 08:05am PT
This talk about Germany should "forgive" Greece's debt because Greece forgave Germany's debt after the war bothers me, not that anyone gives a damn what bothers me.

Germany has already lent Greece billions, which perhaps will never be paid back.

That alone ought to even the lending score.

The Greek people are in for a lot more "austerity" pain irregardless of what happens next.

Yes their own government made bad decisions both in paying retirement pensions at a
pretty young age of 61, but also in having very weak tax code including poor tax enforcement.

Those past poor government decisions are now very unfortunately being paid for by the
misery of high unemployment and financial insecurity for the citizens, not their "fault"
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 8, 2015 - 08:18am PT
^^^^^

That sounds like a lot of dissimulation (i.e.: Bullschitt) to me. The price differential between an F16 or F22 means that the loss of a single F35 would be catastrophic, under a prolonged war scenario. Stealth today doesn't necessarily mean stealth tomorrow, as countermeasures are always improving as well as the stealth technology.

You can always tell the age of the boys (Admirals and Generals) by the price of their toys...
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 8, 2015 - 08:20am PT
If you want to really understand Pentagon depravity you should read __Boyd -The Fighter
Pilot Who Changed The Art Of War.__. He has a lasting legacy in many things but his battles
with Air Force generals over aircraft development are legendary. The book exhaustively
details the insanity of the Air Force weapons development which ultimately boils down to a
system that solely exists to provide very cushy positions in the so-called defense industry for
colonels and generals after they retire. To say the whole thing is treasonous is an understate-
ment. One tidbit: the Air Force fought tooth and nail against the F-16 that Boyd almost single-
handedly drove the design for. The generals hated it because it wasn't designed to deliver
nuclear bombs and it was too cheap. They said it was a "short-legged little f*#k" without a
mission. It turns out it had better legs than the F-15 and could defeat that plane in any
situation.
rockermike

Trad climber
Berkeley
Jul 8, 2015 - 08:23am PT
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jul/07/greece-financial-elite-democracy-liassez-faire-neoliberalism

First intelligent article I've read about the sweeping game plan of the banks.... and one that doesn't blame retired plumbers for mistakes made by Goldmen bankers.

If you haven't read it yet I highly recommend Perkins' 'Confessions of an Economic Hit Man'
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 8, 2015 - 08:55am PT
I read the entire article posted by rockermike. I can't say I disagree with any of it; most modern day politicians are little but bagmen for the Banksters. Bottom line here: Greece is fukked. Next to go are Spain, Portugal, Ireland, and probably Italy. The IMF and ECB wield entirely too much political power, and forget about being "compassionate." International Banksters are avaricious, vindictive, and inherently evil. In the long term, the Eurozone, and hence the Euro, is doomed. Not this year or even next, but I would be very surprised for it to make it to a 25 year anniversary....

If the Banksters were not so dammed clever and able to use national armies to do their bidding, they would require private armies to protect themselves from the traditional "peasants with pitchforks."
Flip Flop

climber
Earth Planet, Universe
Jul 8, 2015 - 09:05am PT
Selling pitchforks. Get them now. Free sharpening.
John Duffield

Mountain climber
New York
Jul 8, 2015 - 09:16am PT
Irelands trend line, is going in the right direction finally and it appears they have the spine to do what it takes. I wouldn't write them off just yet. Italy, oth, has no cash and migrants are swarming.
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 8, 2015 - 09:25am PT
John-

From what I saw in Northern Italy the past two years, the still smoldering separatist movement in South Tirol could be given a boost by the economic conditions. The region is still using German as the principal language, since it's taught in the schools alongside the mandatory Italian. Ladin is still used as a traditional regional language.

Pitchforks for sale? You bettcha!
Jan

Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
Jul 8, 2015 - 09:36am PT
Pitchforks to the front. Finally we found something that liberals and conservatives agree on!
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 8, 2015 - 09:37am PT
Latest news on my computer updates:

GREEK BANKS REMAIN CLOSED.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jul 8, 2015 - 09:41am PT
Technical glitch - We have no f*cking idea what's wrong...

But is probably due to over-design in a program intended to prevent this kind of problem.
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 8, 2015 - 09:44am PT
EdwardT-

RU referring to the shutdown in trading at the NYSE, and that United Airlines is unable to process ticket applications?

That came up as an "update" too.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jul 8, 2015 - 09:57am PT
NYSE
John Duffield

Mountain climber
New York
Jul 8, 2015 - 10:00am PT
Resetting all passwords and cascading everything to new accounts. gets easier with practice.
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 8, 2015 - 04:19pm PT
Apparently the Shanghai and Peking stock exchanges were down significantly today. I believe something around 8%?

Also there's some evidence the NYSE was hacked as well as UAL. Possible Cyberterrorism.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 8, 2015 - 04:27pm PT
They claim it was a software update gone south. We can all relate to that, eh?

China has been due for a dope slap, er, I mean a market correction. This
one, like most, will shake out the weak-willed and under-capitalized; NBD.
As I said the other day China has the political will and the wherewithal to
deal with this. Brasil doesn't and they are approaching the brink of the
financial Iguazu Falls. The SuperTopo Robespierre Chowder and Marching
Society blame all this on greedy bankers while fiddling along to the tune
"I'm A Dopey Pseudo-Socialist Demagogue" being sung around the world.
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 8, 2015 - 04:53pm PT
Reilly-

Yeah, the Chinese markets were due for a big correction. As is our very own NYSE, which is wildly overvalued. More of a Bitch slap than a Dope slap, however...

Re: Greece; I don't think the ECB is going to cut them any slack. Greece is in for some tough sledding. If I can find it, there's an excellent Paul Craig Roberts article re: Greece. If I can find it this evening, I'll post the link.
John Duffield

Mountain climber
New York
Jul 8, 2015 - 05:10pm PT
But interest rates on 10 year T-Bills went up. The Federal Government, if it continues, will be like a junkie with a massive jones.
Jan

Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
Jul 8, 2015 - 05:16pm PT
I keep telling you guys, we're the safe haven, scary as that may be.
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 8, 2015 - 05:21pm PT
As long as the Central Banks keep playing this game of chicken, we're all at risk.
jstan

climber
Topic Author's Reply - Jul 8, 2015 - 07:24pm PT
If Germany were to pull out all the stops to keep Greece in the EURO, the other countries in trouble would assume they had no problem. Greece's latest failure to provide a specific proposal says their NO vote is their answer. The problems in the EURO will rattle on down for probably another year. During that time, barring complications, US debt should hold its own. A friend has been selling US debt short for more than a year; not pretty. I am long since 2008 and am watching to see when the long position peaks. Thanks to a little day trading I am getting a YTM of 2.7%, over inflation which is running at about 2.2% and can hold to maturity. Pretty good for AAA I think.

You guys have persuaded me gold is worth watching but those long trends in value suggest only money not needed should be put in gold. If the velocity of money rises from its present moribund state Krugman feels inflation will require more hedging. Me? I am just a dirt bagger.
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 8, 2015 - 08:11pm PT
The only way to buy gold is take physical possession of the metal. Perhaps a better play at this juncture is in silver, since it's currently trading at a 5 year low. If silver were trading at it's historical ratio of 1/15th the price of gold, it would be trading at $76 per ounce.
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Jul 8, 2015 - 08:24pm PT
It seems, at least to a degree, that the Greek situation has been exacerbated by the Conservative approach to things.

they are running a huge unemployment rate, and it seems to me that as long as that is true, it is going to be hard to recover.

But one of the approaches being pushed by the Germans, is to hit the pensions and the pensioners. While I agree that a retirement age of 61 is ridiculous under the circumstances, if they force pensioners back into the workforce, the unemployment rate will go UP.

Wages are low, but people have to make a living somehow, so this would seem to feed into corruption, black market, and organized crime.

Not so easy, I think.
Ghost

climber
A long way from where I started
Jul 8, 2015 - 08:41pm PT
Apparently the Shanghai and Peking stock exchanges were down significantly today. I believe something around 8%?

Over the last four weeks, the Chinese stock market is down by almost one third.

But before you start looking at "a 33% fall in a single month" as a signal that the world is about to end, remember that even after the 33% drop, the Chinese stock market is still up 75% year-over-year.

And also remember that the Chinese stock market is a far less significant part of the Chinese economy than the US stock market is of the US economy, or the European markets are of the European economy.

That dramatic drop over the last month signifies something entirely different for China than it would in North America or Europe.
jstan

climber
Topic Author's Reply - Jul 8, 2015 - 09:30pm PT
The St.Louis Fed has data on Yuan USD exchange rates.

Since 2005 the value of the dollar relative to the Yuan has increased by 25%. Chinese goods are 25% more expensive. Six Yuan per dollar was as it used to be in 1994. Eight Yuan per dollar made it easy to buy Chinese goods. I think I have that right.
Jan

Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
Jul 8, 2015 - 09:46pm PT
I listened to part of the Greek prime minister's speech to the EU and I did have sympathy for him when he said he had only been in office five months and these problems were five and a half years in the making. It seems to me he is in a position similar to Obama when taking office and dealing with a crash created by the previous administration. Fortunately even when things are dire, the U.S. still has resources to work with.

On the other hand there is an article in the New York Times today about Greeks going on a spending spree to try to have durable goods when the government devalues or taxes away a large part of bank savings as Cyprus did in a similar situation. They are buying everything from gold jewelry to cars to major appliances. This for me symbolizes the problem. For them to have that kind of money stashed away in their houses instead of the banks and paying honest taxes, is a large part of the problem. It reminds me a lot of the peasants in Nepal who had no money to educate their children yet could buy gold jewelry and sponsor lavish weddings.

Mentally, the Greeks have not yet entered the modern world. Of course sandwiched in between Serbia and Turkey doesn't help nor being separated from the rest of Europe by the sea.
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 8, 2015 - 10:07pm PT
Ken-

It isn't necessarily the conservative approach, but the Bankster approach.

The word compassion does not exist to International Bankers...

It's all about CONTROL. They want the Greeks to "toe the line."
Jan

Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
Jul 8, 2015 - 10:52pm PT
It's said that they also want cheap water front property down there.
rockermike

Trad climber
Berkeley
Jul 9, 2015 - 01:41am PT
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jul/08/greece-catastrophe-eurozone-grexit-default

Another ... not banker friendly.... article from the Guardian.
pyro

Big Wall climber
Calabasas
Jul 9, 2015 - 06:32am PT
China ouch!

The bubble popped


[Click to View YouTube Video]


Chinese need to create vs stealing it!
John Duffield

Mountain climber
New York
Jul 9, 2015 - 07:35am PT
well, I heard it's up 75% in the last year. Has to be grossly overbought. Somewhere in there, is a climbing analogy, like the higher you climb the further you fall.
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 9, 2015 - 08:04am PT
Don't forget about the depth of the resulting crater!!!
Craig Fry

Trad climber
So Cal.
Jul 9, 2015 - 09:49am PT


Austerity Has Failed: An Open Letter From Thomas Piketty to Angela Merkel

Five leading economists warn the German chancellor, “History will remember you for your actions this week.”

July 7, 2015
http://www.thenation.com/article/austerity-has-failed-an-open-letter-from-thomas-piketty-to-angela-merkel/

The never-ending austerity that Europe is force-feeding the Greek people is simply not working. Now Greece has loudly said no more.

Global campaign group Avaaz organized this open letter to Angela Merkel on the back of a petition, signed by over half a million Europeans, demanding an end to the failed austerity program in Greece.

As most of the world knew it would, the financial demands made by Europe have crushed the Greek economy, led to mass unemployment, a collapse of the banking system, made the external debt crisis far worse, with the debt problem escalating to an unpayable 175 percent of GDP. The economy now lies broken with tax receipts nose-diving, output and employment depressed, and businesses starved of capital.

The humanitarian impact has been colossal—40 percent of children now live in poverty, infant mortality is sky-rocketing and youth unemployment is close to 50 percent. Corruption, tax evasion and bad accounting by previous Greek governments helped create the debt problem. The Greeks have complied with much of German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s call for austerity—cut salaries, cut government spending, slashed pensions, privatized and deregulated, and raised taxes. But in recent years the series of so-called adjustment programs inflicted on the likes of Greece has served only to make a Great Depression the likes of which have been unseen in Europe since 1929-1933. The medicine prescribed by the German Finance Ministry and Brussels has bled the patient, not cured the disease.

Together we urge Chancellor Merkel and the Troika to consider a course correction, to avoid further disaster and enable Greece to remain in the eurozone. Right now, the Greek government is being asked to put a gun to its head and pull the trigger. Sadly, the bullet will not only kill off Greece’s future in Europe. The collateral damage will kill the Eurozone as a beacon of hope, democracy and prosperity, and could lead to far-reaching economic consequences across the world.

In the 1950s, Europe was founded on the forgiveness of past debts, notably Germany’s, which generated a massive contribution to post-war economic growth and peace. Today we need to restructure and reduce Greek debt, give the economy breathing room to recover, and allow Greece to pay off a reduced burden of debt over a long period of time. Now is the time for a humane rethink of the punitive and failed program of austerity of recent years and to agree to a major reduction of Greece’s debts in conjunction with much needed reforms in Greece.

To Chancellor Merkel our message is clear; we urge you to take this vital action of leadership for Greece and Germany, and also for the world. History will remember you for your actions this week. We expect and count on you to provide the bold and generous steps towards Greece that will serve Europe for generations to come.

Sincerely,

Heiner Flassbeck, former State Secretary in the German Federal Ministry of Finance

Thomas Piketty, Professor of Economics at the Paris School of Economics

Jeffrey D. Sachs, Professor of Sustainable Development, Professor of Health Policy and Management, and Director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University

Dani Rodrik, Ford Foundation Professor of International Political Economy, Harvard Kennedy School

Simon Wren-Lewis, Professor of Economic Policy, Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford •
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Jul 9, 2015 - 10:18am PT
never-ending austerity

ROFL

What a knee-slapper!
guyman

Social climber
Moorpark, CA.
Jul 9, 2015 - 10:28am PT
Wow seem to me like this is what happens when you spend more than you make......

or Borrow more than you can ever re-pay.

This is looming for the USA.

Thanks for the tips on Silver, maybe time to go and buy a bunch of that and stash it under the floorboards.


I predict that Greek Climbing Vacations will be a bargain in about two years.


Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 9, 2015 - 10:50am PT
How could 'austerity' have failed? It hasn't started yet. I suggest you
read the article in today's LA Times about how austerity has worked in
Ireland, Portugal, and Spain where the Bolshies are pissed because Rajoy
is enjoying such popularity that he is going to call for early elections.
Jan

Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
Jul 9, 2015 - 10:57am PT
The Guardian article by rockermike makes the most sense to me. It was foolhardy to think that the tiny Greek economy could ever compete on an equal footing with Germany. That would be like incorporating Nepal into the U.S. and wondering why it couldn't compete with California. A tourism based economy can never compete with an industrialized one. That they sponsored the 2004 Olympics they couldn't afford for sentimental reasons, was their fault and a warning to others.

The problem started with incorporating Greece into the Euro to begin with which forced them to borrow to try to keep up - to the great profit of the northern bankers. While it's true that Greeks don't work as hard as Germans, the problem was a structural one more than any moral fault of the Greeks.

This whole episode also seems to justify the position of the British, Norwegians, and Swiss who all declined to join the common currency. Perhaps the worst part of it, which their leaders seem oblivious to, is that the position of the Germans at the head of the EU is stirring up a lot of memories of the lead up to the two great wars, with economics substituting for military might. This has the potential for a big backlash against the Germans. In large part this is due to another structural inequality that has never been solved and that is the fact that Germany is so much larger than any of the other countries in Europe, many of whom were not in favor of reunification for this very reason.

We're still the safe haven and will be for a long time. Otherwise, buy Canadian natural resource stocks.
hooblie

climber
from out where the anecdotes roam
Jul 9, 2015 - 10:57am PT
this article by michael lewis five years ago was a fascinating read:

http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2010/10/greeks-bearing-bonds-201010
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 9, 2015 - 11:08am PT
It was foolhardy to think that the tiny Greek economy could ever compete on an equal footing with Germany

Uh, the Irish haven't needed to invoke that line of reasoning. They just
put on their adult panties and got on with it and they are a relative
minnow compared to Greece. Portugal has an economy almost the equal of
Greece's in terms of lack of industry and a reliance on tourism yet they
have soldiered on. I guess it is understandable that the Greeks are such
drama queens but it is rather pathetic that they seem to think they are
more deserving of our pity and Euros than the Irish, Portuguese, and Spanish.
JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
Jul 9, 2015 - 11:16am PT
Joining the Euro didn't mean that the Greek economy "competed" with Germany's in the sense mentioned. It did mean that Greek monetary policy was limited, and it meant that Greek firms competed with firms from other countries, which was true regardless.

The size of an economy has nothing to do with its competitiveness. The latter reflects policy choices. The cries from the left, as exemplified by reporting in the Guardian that I've been reading the last few weeks, miss the reality of the situation. The Greek economy cannot sustain the Greek government's commitments to the welfare spending on its citizens. Neither can it sustain enough to repay its debt.

It's not a question of a policy of austerity taken on in any willing sense. It's more a matter of harsh reality imposing itself on a fantasy of financial commitments.

John
Craig Fry

Trad climber
So Cal.
Jul 9, 2015 - 11:21am PT
You cannot cut your way to prosperity!
Austerity will always fail, since it's always imposed by the elite that just want to milk the riches out of the population.
Just look at the facts on the ground in Greece, they are suffering and had enough of the BS reasons for the austerity.

Face it, the banksters and conservatives will ruin every economy they can get their hands on, but the blame will always be shifted to the poor that can't defend themselves, or as you call them "the whiners wearing panties".
Can't you see what's going on?

It's all about greed vs. humanity
F*#k Germany and the Banksters, it's shameful what they continue to do with the support of the conservatives.
Sula

Trad climber
Pennsylvania
Jul 9, 2015 - 12:05pm PT
Milton Friedman saw the issue clearly in 1997:
The drive for the Euro has been motivated by politics not economics. The aim has been to link Germany and France so closely as to make a future European war impossible, and to set the stage for a federal United States of Europe. I believe that adoption of the Euro would have the opposite effect. It would exacerbate political tensions by converting divergent shocks that could have been readily accommodated by exchange rate changes into divisive political issues. Political unity can pave the way for monetary unity. Monetary unity imposed under unfavorable conditions will prove a barrier to the achievement of political unity.
Sula

Trad climber
Pennsylvania
Jul 9, 2015 - 12:22pm PT
Craig Fry posted:
... but the blame will always be shifted to the poor that can't defend themselves

I see very little blaming of the poor. Instead, the blame is directed at the Greek government and its public sector, along with the policies that allowed access to absurd amounts of debt (and a national tradition of evading taxes). From the Michael Lewis article linked above:
The tsunami of cheap credit that rolled across the planet between 2002 and 2007 ... offered entire societies the chance to reveal aspects of their characters they could not normally afford to indulge. Entire countries were told, “The lights are out, you can do whatever you want to do and no one will ever know.”

...

As it turned out, what the Greeks wanted to do, once the lights went out and they were alone in the dark with a pile of borrowed money, was turn their government into a piñata stuffed with fantastic sums and give as many citizens as possible a whack at it. In just the past decade the wage bill of the Greek public sector has doubled, in real terms—and that number doesn’t take into account the bribes collected by public officials. The average government job pays almost three times the average private-sector job. The national railroad has annual revenues of 100 million euros against an annual wage bill of 400 million, plus 300 million euros in other expenses. The average state railroad employee earns 65,000 euros a year. Twenty years ago a successful businessman turned minister of finance named Stefanos Manos pointed out that it would be cheaper to put all Greece’s rail passengers into taxicabs: it’s still true. “We have a railroad company which is bankrupt beyond comprehension,” Manos put it to me. “And yet there isn’t a single private company in Greece with that kind of average pay.” The Greek public-school system is the site of breathtaking inefficiency: one of the lowest-ranked systems in Europe, it nonetheless employs four times as many teachers per pupil as the highest-ranked, Finland’s. Greeks who send their children to public schools simply assume that they will need to hire private tutors to make sure they actually learn something. There are three government-owned defense companies: together they have billions of euros in debts, and mounting losses. The retirement age for Greek jobs classified as “arduous” is as early as 55 for men and 50 for women. As this is also the moment when the state begins to shovel out generous pensions, more than 600 Greek professions somehow managed to get themselves classified as arduous: hairdressers, radio announcers, waiters, musicians, and on and on and on. The Greek public health-care system spends far more on supplies than the European average—and it is not uncommon, several Greeks tell me, to see nurses and doctors leaving the job with their arms filled with paper towels and diapers and whatever else they can plunder from the supply closets.
JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
Jul 9, 2015 - 12:25pm PT
It's all about greed vs. humanity
F*#k Germany and the Banksters, it's shameful what they continue to do with the support of the conservatives.

Craig, do you recognize that the lenders to the Greek government aren't going to get their money back, regardless of what they or anyone else does? Do you recognize that the Greek government's social welfare programs can't keep their propmises without others giving it money? I make the point of using "giving," not "lending," because only a visionary could imagine getting back any money given (under any terms) to the current Greek government.

Neither "austerity" nor "profligacy" provide a necessary or sufficient condition to prosperity. The only way Greece can avoid what you call "austerity" is for other governments to give money to Greece forever. Why would or should they do so?

John

Edit: No wonder so much rock fell on Half Dome. Norton and I agree. I don't blame the retirees either. They changed their position in reliance on promises made by their government. Also the tax collection problems of Greece are well known.
Norton

Social climber
Jul 9, 2015 - 12:41pm PT
I agree with JohnE on this one.

however I do not "blame" excessive government pension spending, the average government retiree gets around $900 a month, arguably poverty level life styles

what is often overlooked is the tax collection structure across Greece, very poor enforcement from what I am reading

There is a willingness, an eagerness, to blame the retirees with meager pensions
They didn't make the rules, they worked, retired, and have had their pensions slashed

I am sick of the constant bleating that its all the fault spending, it is not, period
Jan

Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
Jul 9, 2015 - 12:56pm PT
Michael Lew's article is very instructive. I had to keep reminding myself that I was reading about Greece and not Nepal. In thinking about what both have in common, my conclusion is that they were ruled by autocrats for several centuries in a feudal system over which they had no control.

The Nepalese were oppressed and still are, by the conquering Shahs and Ranas and their high caste henchmen while in Greece it was hideous exploitation by the Ottoman Turks for four centuries.The natural response is learned helplessness and a devious undercutting of the system at the same time.

Both countries have failed to incorporate into their culture the idea that they are now responsible for their country's outcome. Their governments remain untrustworthy and the people continue to view their government as the enemy. This makes it impossible to have a modern government or economy. Meanwhile, the poor suffer.
fear

Ice climber
hartford, ct
Jul 9, 2015 - 01:29pm PT
It's both... It's spending and collection..

Government is by consent. The people of Greece have largely withdrawn their consent hence the massive black-market as people simply work around it.

You'll see the same thing here. It's only a matter of time.
John Duffield

Mountain climber
New York
Jul 9, 2015 - 01:38pm PT
There's only one hope left...

Norton

Social climber
Jul 9, 2015 - 01:44pm PT
You'll see the same thing here. It's only a matter of time.

care to elaborate?
Craig Fry

Trad climber
So Cal.
Jul 9, 2015 - 01:50pm PT
It's the lenders or the Pensions

Why is it that always that the pensions and retirements of millions is the first to go when Governments inflict austerity.
The pain is shifted from the wealth to the middle class

Greece needs to pull out of the Euro and claim bankruptcy, like Trump.
The Euro has been a failure, due it being created by the creator of Reaganomics. It sucks all the public services up as it enriches the enriched. This austerity will bring down many other countries as the citizens realize that they were Neo-conned and refuse to support it.

you'll see the same thing here

Low taxes is the cause for us, we don't invest in the future, it's just suck the life out of everything that can produce bucks.

We could change course, but the pain will have to go to the top, not the bottom. Currently we're on a race to the bottom.
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
mammoth lakes ca
Jul 9, 2015 - 02:30pm PT
Craig...It's impossible to re-invest in our infrastructure when billions in collectable taxes are hidden in offshore accounts...Guess who picks up the slack...rj
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Jul 9, 2015 - 02:38pm PT
You cannot cut your way to prosperity!

Uhh... actually that's the one sure road to prosperity: Spend LESS than you have coming in, CUT your expenses, and invest the inevitable surplus.

When you spend LESS than your income, you have surplus. INVEST that, and you have the basis of prosperity.

Spend MORE than your income, and you WILL have disaster ultimately. The ONLY solution is to CUT. Sooner or later, cutting is inevitable.

So, let me fix it for you: "You cannot spend your way to prosperity."
Craig Fry

Trad climber
So Cal.
Jul 9, 2015 - 04:08pm PT
Please tell us what Country has cut it's way to prosperity?

This is about Nations with millions of lives at stake, not your own little selfish check book.

The solution is not about more cutting, it's about the way taxes have been manipulated to steal from the Governments.
Instead of cutting, the answer is to spend more, and enforce the tax code in a way that the lobbyists are made to feel the pain.

We could, and other Countries should be taxing the excessive profits of the new gilded class.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Jul 9, 2015 - 04:30pm PT
Please tell us what Country has cut it's way to prosperity?

This is about Nations with millions of lives at stake, not your own little selfish check book.

Please tell us what country has spent its way to prosperity.

This is about nations with millions of lives at stake, not your own little selfish entitlements.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Jul 9, 2015 - 04:31pm PT
Instead of cutting, the answer is to spend more

Always the liberal answer, regardless of national debt or any hope/plan of repayment.

But, of course, there's always "raise taxes," which is the other liberal panacea that turns out to justify yet more spending.

Yesss... borrow and spend, borrow and spend our way to prosperity!

Yayyyy!!!!!
Craig Fry

Trad climber
So Cal.
Jul 9, 2015 - 04:33pm PT
America spent it's way to prosperity after WWII

And then Reagan came along, and spent the American legacy of riches and then piled on debt to boot.

and then millions of jobs lost, millions of people out of work
It's the same story all across the Neo-con influence.


The answer is not to raise taxes, it's to bring the taxes back from the rock bottom toxic low tax rates that the rich and special interests are "Entitled" to by the bought off Republican
John Duffield

Mountain climber
New York
Jul 9, 2015 - 05:14pm PT
But one problem we have in common with Greece. Corruption woven into the very fabric, throughout the Government.

Currently, myself and 22 million others, have had their data stolen from Government computers. The procurement policies are riddled with cronyism. Not given to the best product. The ACA website rollout, wasn't a fluke, but the norm. Log onto IRS.gov or the VA website. Loaded with problems.

Many of the wealthy, see no reason to pour more money into such a wasteful system. Clean it up, and have the moral high ground again. As is, it's the bottom of the sewer.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Jul 9, 2015 - 05:22pm PT
America spent it's way to prosperity after WWII

The scary thing is that liberals actually believe garbage like this.

But, hey, we can just print ourselves more "money" to spend. It's all good.

Actually, it's not "we" doing the printing; the printing press has NOTHING to do with "us," despite the euphemistic name "Federal Reserve." The name is 1984 doublespeak in both of its words; it is neither.

The current financial situation is designed and implemented by pure evil. But just keep playing along and singing the tune they give you.

Borrow and spend! Borrow and spend!

True prosperity is JUST around the corner. Yayyyy!!!!!
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Jul 9, 2015 - 05:34pm PT
Log onto IRS.gov or the VA website. Loaded with problems.

I wouldn't recommend it!

Our government is so populated with idiots that they cannot find the time/money among the deepest pockets on the planet to even put a valid SSL certificate on their sites.



If you are going to login, you had better be using an SSL connection, and the government thoughtfully does provide an HTTPS option. However, that connection is exactly as secure as the certificate security.

Several weeks ago, healthcare.gov was garnering a C- and was vulnerable to several known exploits, including Poodle. It's fixed now, but by contrast, the dozens and dozens of sites my company maintains were patched within about two hours after the Poodle bug became public. But our "mighty" (and totally incompetent) government didn't get patched for MONTHS!

Ohhh... right. They just need to SPEND more and raise taxes to pay for it. Riggghhhhttt. We haven't tried that yet. Perhaps that'll fix it.
John Duffield

Mountain climber
New York
Jul 9, 2015 - 05:43pm PT
Indeed. I recently did some Tax business online. My States website, run by competent accountable Liberals, performed very well. The IRS website, was horrible. No accountability. I heard Obama can't even fire the idiots in this latest disaster. Zero accountability.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Jul 9, 2015 - 05:45pm PT
^^^^^ Spot on.
Craig Fry

Trad climber
So Cal.
Jul 9, 2015 - 05:46pm PT
When did lending become "Risk Free"?
Doesn't the free market decide?

What about market corrections after they implode?
John Duffield

Mountain climber
New York
Jul 9, 2015 - 05:54pm PT
There's a difference between a loan and an outright gift.
looking sketchy there...

Social climber
Lassitude 33
Jul 9, 2015 - 06:06pm PT
This thread is full of laughs.

Ascribing terms like "evil" to the U.S. financial system only sounds informed to the ignorant.

There is no shortcut to obtaining the requisite knowledge to make a legitimate critique of the world of banking, credit and money.

A tiny first step would be to crawl outside the misinformation "bubble" and seek actual information, not prepackaged "opinion" masquerading as such.
Norton

Social climber
Jul 9, 2015 - 06:11pm PT
yes

and doing away with arrogant certainty does not diminish credibility, it enhances it
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Jul 9, 2015 - 06:46pm PT
Ascribing terms like "evil" to the U.S. financial system only sounds informed to the ignorant.

First, I didn't say "financial system." I said "financial situation."

As my posts clearly indicate, I'm a dyed-in-the-wool libertarian capitalist. Our "financial system" is not evil.

But central bankers ARE pure evil, and they have TAKEN our financial system and utterly corrupted it to their own ends, producing our current "financial situation."

It's easy to call "ignorance" if you can't parse the English language nor employ a shred of intellectual charity.

Edit: I remove the earlier Jefferson quote because I've concluded that it was incredibly widespread but ultimately apocryphal. Here's a similar one that is legitimate: "And I sincerely believe, with you, that banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies; and that the principle of spending money to be paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale."

And a well-done article on the start of the problem can be found here:
https://mises.org/library/central-banking-engine-corruption

It appears to me more and more that the anti-federalists were right all along, at least in their core distrust of the ever-widening vortex of federal power (and attendant corruption).
JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
Jul 9, 2015 - 08:01pm PT
When did lending become "Risk Free"?
Doesn't the free market decide?

Craig, the market has decided. Non-government investors will not lend to the Greek government in its current situation. The issue isn't what to do to save the lenders. It's what, if anything, we can do to alleviate the misery awaiting more Greek citizens.

Populist demagogues can look for villains to blame, but the problem has millions of causes, including, but not limited to, every Greek who evades taxes.

And I must take issue with madbolter1's assertion that central bankers are evil. We've charged our central bankers with a partially contradictory task: We want stable currencies, but we want to minimize economic hardship. As Craig correctly points out, the economy requires periodic corrections. It's not clear to me exactly what "evil" allegedly motives central bankers' actions.

John
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Jul 9, 2015 - 08:08pm PT
We've charged our central bankers with a partially contradictory task: We want stable currencies, but we want to minimize economic hardship.

WE have "charged" the central bankers with no such thing. WE had nothing to do with their emergence nor their activities. And if you have to have the evil of their manipulations and corruptions explained to you, then no explanation is going to suffice.

And if you think that the activities of the central banks lead to "stable currencies," well, again, there's no argument that can touch you.

Perhaps read the article I linked to.
couchmaster

climber
Jul 10, 2015 - 06:43am PT
Thanks for the great links. Hooblies link was this: http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2010/10/greeks-bearing-bonds-201010

Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 10, 2015 - 07:38am PT
Holy Koran, Batman, Saudi Arabia just issued bonds for the first time since 2007!
I thought the Koran forbade charging interest?
looking sketchy there...

Social climber
Lassitude 33
Jul 10, 2015 - 07:39am PT
It appears to me more and more that the anti-federalists were right all along, at least in their core distrust of the ever-widening vortex of federal power (and attendant corruption).

You are entitled to this belief, but like most belief's, it is not based upon unbiased fact. Jefferson and the Anti-Federalists were (and remain) simply wrong with regard to monetary policy.

Jefferson was opposed to the First Bank of the United States and curtailing the "States" power in the financial field. The Anti-Federalists (primarily Southerners) were less interested in trade and industry, which the Bank was designed to serve, than in agriculture. Their fear was that northern merchants would be the primary beneficiaries.

Regional paper money (delegation to the States to charter note issuing banks), not Hamilton's the Bank of the United States, and the lack of regulation lead to irresponsible and fraudulent banking practices that persisted through the late 1830s.

Nevertheless, it is not subject to reasonable dispute that the defeat of the Second Bank of the United States by Jackson and the Hard Money politicians in 1833 lead to the financial panic of 1837 and subsequent depression.

Unlike the hundreds of largely unregulated state chartered banks that sprang up after the Second Bank of the United State's demise, the Second Bank of the Unites States' notes had always been redeemed. Tens of thousands of individuals and small businessmen suffered losses when many of these banks failed.

Most American's are unaware of the repeated cycles of financial panics, recessions and depressions that persisted throughout the period from 1830 to 1908.

Citing Jefferson and the modern ilk of Anti-Federalists as authority on monetary policy is fairly naive. This "pick and choose" view of history is the definition of bias.
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 10, 2015 - 07:57am PT
Madbolter is dead on the mark about central banks. The Federal Reserve Bank is privately held and is about as "Federal" as Federal Express.

I seldom find myself in agreement with DMT, but in regards to the House of Saud, we agree completely.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 10, 2015 - 08:11am PT
Ibn Saud, the particular friend of a certain T E Lawrence, was a stud. His progeny suffered
from that peculiar malaise common to inheritors of greatness. The newly enfranchised crew
appear to be more in tune with their great grandfather and, mark my words, will rock the casbah!
John Duffield

Mountain climber
New York
Jul 10, 2015 - 08:33am PT
Well, I read the Vanity Fair article, that couchmaster linked.

Interesting. Not only that, but a whole load of people who've responded to the crisis as their ideology dictated, without knowing anything about the issues, are now busted as the fools they are.
rockermike

Trad climber
Berkeley
Jul 10, 2015 - 10:54am PT
There are two narratives at war here. One represented my John and others here on ST and Wall Street Journal and Vanity Faire et al in the press. We can call it 'the world should be thankful to the savior bankers' myth. Repeated enough times some people chose to interpret reality through that rose collared lense. Then there is 'the bankers are in conspiracy to get filthy rich at the expense of anyone everyone' camp. That includes me. ha
Two interesting facts to counter that Vanity Faire 'greeks are loosers' article.
1st.According to the IMF's own internal analysis. .. though not mentioned in the press... Greece will never and can never pay off its debts if austerities are imposed. Its just math. Austerities supress growth and without growth the debts will never be payable.$250, 000 per a person I believe.
2ndly it was Goldman Sachs itself working for the then right wing government who designed the scam to hide Greeks true debt structure when applying for EURO membership. Now they sing the song condemning greek workers for their laziness.

Anyway here's another insightful article


http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/7769474





madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Jul 10, 2015 - 11:15am PT
You are entitled to this belief, but like most belief's, it is not based upon unbiased fact. Jefferson and the Anti-Federalists were (and remain) simply wrong with regard to monetary policy.

You can say the words, but that doesn't make them true. You also have your belief, and, as you say, "like most beliefs, it is not based upon unbiased fact."

Such statements contribute nothing of substance to this discussion.

Regional paper money (delegation to the States to charter note issuing banks), not Hamilton's the Bank of the United States, and the lack of regulation lead to irresponsible and fraudulent banking practices that persisted through the late 1830s.

Ridiculous! I have more to say than could possibly fit in a forum thread. Wow, talk about a "biased" viewpoint, and, of course, you earlier used the phrase, "most of them southerners" in a totally pejorative sense, playing on the "bad, southern racists" meme. Just ridiculous!

Nevertheless, it is not subject to reasonable dispute that the defeat of the Second Bank of the United States by Jackson and the Hard Money politicians in 1833 lead to the financial panic of 1837 and subsequent depression.

Ahh, so you help yourself to the argument by stating at the outset that nobody can reasonably dispute with you. This is sophistry, not legitimate argumentation.

Unlike the hundreds of largely unregulated state chartered banks that sprang up after the Second Bank of the United State's demise, the Second Bank of the Unites States' notes had always been redeemed. Tens of thousands of individuals and small businessmen suffered losses when many of these banks failed.

You are conflating issues now. You are conflating regulatory policies with monetary policies. We've had crises and failures both before and after the Fed was established. You utterly fail to prove any linkages between "stability" and the existence of the Fed, which is your basic case.

Most American's are unaware of the repeated cycles of financial panics, recessions and depressions that persisted throughout the period from 1830 to 1908.

True.

But most Americans are NOT unaware of the exact same things happening throughout our own lifetimes. Are you really trying to float the nonsense that we've had "stability" and "safety" from financial disaster since the Fed came swooping in to save us?

We've had everything from S&L crisis to the debacle of 2008 (and following). The litany of failures and instability is RESOUNDING... all under the "watchful" and "benevolent" eye of the Fed!

Anybody looking to the Fed for salvation, particularly while trying to claim that "it's much better now," is simply ignorant of monetary theory... what money IS. If you think that dollars are MONEY, you reveal your utter ignorance.

Citing Jefferson and the modern ilk of Anti-Federalists as authority on monetary policy is fairly naive.

No, "naive" is looking at the ENDLESS cycles of financial crisis and reading them as "things have been so much better since the Fed came to save us." It's naive and ignorant of basic economics, by which I mean what money actually IS.

This "pick and choose" view of history is the definition of bias.

You engage in exactly what you accuse me of doing. Mine is not "bias." Mine is the simple recognition that you cannot create genuine value out of thin air, which is precisely what the Fed has been claiming it is really doing.

This video clip is somewhat "scripted," but Paul tells the truth:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vgYSn0ip5hY

This forum subject is Greece. We there see a test-tube case of the principles Paul is talking about.

Honestly, it's already too late for us. A crisis of unprecedented magnitude WILL happen, probably in our lifetimes. You can't kick the can down the road forever. So, non-naive and intelligent people are tumbling to the fact that the Fed has helped itself, literally, to the "wealth of nations." This realization means taking steps to convert worthless dollars to tangible assets with inherent value while the vast majority don't realize that paper has NO value beyond a belief! While there is still belief, make your plans.

Nuff said.
looking sketchy there...

Social climber
Lassitude 33
Jul 10, 2015 - 01:48pm PT
You are conflating issues now. You are conflating regulatory policies with monetary policies. We've had crises and failures both before and after the Fed was established. You utterly fail to prove any linkages between "stability" and the existence of the Fed, which is your basic case.

You were the one who harkened back to Jefferson and his opposition to Hamilton's push for the Bank of the United States -- as some manner of critique of the Federal Reserve System and the larger concept of Central Banking.

It is unfortunate that you seem to dismiss the very real (and historically documented) financial consequences of the Anti-Federalists and their Hard Money kin.

And while there has been and always will be financial ups and downs, these pale in comparison to the turmoil that pre-dated the establishment of the Fed in 1914. And, the problems that have arisen over the last 100 years can be traced to either the lack of regulation, the failure to aggressively enforce existing regulations, or the lack of will to interfere with "market forces."

And, my God! Rand Paul? I guess it must be true. Are we next to hear from the keen minds of Bill O'Reilly or Rush Limbaugh?

Broaden your sources of information and read source material (not political screed) and we can sit down sometime and have a stimulating conversation on the subject.

But, the discussion of the merits (or lack thereof) of the Federal Reserve is somewhat off topic to the Greek's failure to keep their financial house in order and their currently unwillingness to come to grips with the consequences.

This realization means taking steps to convert worthless dollars to tangible assets with inherent value while the vast majority don't realize that paper has NO value beyond a belief

Most of what people today consider "Tangible Assets" do not have significantly more inherit value than a dollar bill. Gold and Silver have increasingly few industrial applications and certainly few enough to support the inflated value currently placed upon them. Like a Federal Reserve Note, they only have value because of the belief that they do and the acceptance of that belief. This is the fundamental concept of what money really is... an accepted medium of exchange.

In a real post-apocalyptic crisis, a gold ingot will be as worthless as a pile of $100 bills.



Craig Fry

Trad climber
So Cal.
Jul 10, 2015 - 03:56pm PT
Sometimes I think the Madbolter is a Cato Institute experimental child

Remember who we are debating;
A Seventh Day Adventist.
he doesn't believe in evolution being the explanation of the billions of life forms we see. God created them, one at a time.
I would also predict he thinks that Global Climate Change is liberal hoax. Because God will always protect the chosen ones or something...
Norton

Social climber
Jul 10, 2015 - 03:58pm PT
he doesn't believe in evolution being the explanation of the billions of life forms we see. God created them, one at a time.

seriously, he does not?
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Jul 10, 2015 - 04:10pm PT
And while there has been and always will be financial ups and downs, these pale in comparison to the turmoil that pre-dated the establishment of the Fed in 1914.

Bwhahahaha... really? You are trying to be serious rather than trolling?

I seriously have to ask, because a statement like that is so outrageous that it cannot be taken seriously. Were you alive and conscious in 2008?

And, the problems that have arisen over the last 100 years

Ah, finally, at least a tacit admission of "problems" in the last hundred years! That's getting somewhere.

can be traced to either the lack of regulation, the failure to aggressively enforce existing regulations, or the lack of will to interfere with "market forces."

Sorry, but that's only part of the picture.

And, my God! Rand Paul? I guess it must be true. Are we next to hear from the keen minds of Bill O'Reilly or Rush Limbaugh?

Excellent! More pejorative statements and guilt by association fallacies.

And the irony here is that I never mentioned Rand Paul. Yet again, your ignorance (and decided lack of a desire to actually read with comprehension) is showing. The video clip I posted was from Ron Paul, not his son. And I have nothing to do with the right wing rebumblecons like you mention. Rand Paul is a rebumblecon; his father was/is a libertarian.

Broaden your sources of information and read source material (not political screed)

"And, my God!" Are you really saying "political screed" when I have referred to no such thing?

LOL... "Broaden your sources of information and read source material" is just classic! I have a Ph.D. in analytical philosophy and have TAUGHT this stuff at the university level. What is your CV regarding this subject?

and we can sit down sometime and have a stimulating conversation on the subject.

From what I've seen so far, highly doubtful.

If you honestly think it's "naive" for anybody to decry the fed to come along and print MASSIVE quantities of worthless paper money in your name, manipulate interest rates in your name, and yet have ZERO accountability to the American people, seriously, there is no touching you.

You really evidence that you lack the most basic understanding of monetary theory, and if you think that the fed has the SLIGHTEST interest in your welfare or long-term interests, you are far beyond naive!

Why don't you actually WATCH the video I linked to, actually tumble to the NAME of the person in it, and see if Dr. Paul can inform your thinking. Within five minutes you'll see that he is not preaching some "political screed."
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Jul 10, 2015 - 04:15pm PT
And, right on schedule, there's "Dr. F" with more ad hominem attacks that are entirely irrelevant to the subject at hand.

You guys are a HOOT! LOL

"Thinking" like yours is exactly why the libs are winning and this nation is going to hell in a handbasket.

Borrow and spend! Borrow and spend! The mantra of the criminally insane when it's done at a national level.

Sadly, when the day comes that I could say "I told you so," the blood running in the streets across this nation will have me so saddened that I won't be able to say anything at all.
Craig Fry

Trad climber
So Cal.
Jul 10, 2015 - 04:17pm PT
Hey Mad
Do you know Dave Wonderly?
He also grew up in Loma Linda as a Seventh Day Adventist, ~1974


I present the liberal perspective
Just to make sure someone gets the message out.
Like it or hate it, it's just an option.


what was the ad hominem?
I just read your website

http://www.jensenconsultations.com/

Do beliefs have any part of a Bias?
Yes, it's all about beliefs, they influence bias.
rockermike

Trad climber
Berkeley
Jul 10, 2015 - 04:28pm PT
http://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/s/ref=is_s_ss_i_0_21?k=confessions+of+an+economic+hitman+by+john+perkins&sprefix=confessions+of+an+eco

'Broaden Your Sources...'
I mentioned it upthread but doesn't seem to have gotten much attention. Important book. If you haven't read it you're swimming in an ocean of self deceit. There are a few other good books listed lower on the same page. Set down your WSJ your Harvard Economics Review for a few days and 'broaden your sources'...
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Jul 10, 2015 - 05:57pm PT
I actually have read it, Rockermike. Good book indeed. Good recommendation for broadening.
looking sketchy there...

Social climber
Lassitude 33
Jul 10, 2015 - 09:26pm PT
My apologies, yes Ron Paul. More screed of a different ilk.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Jul 12, 2015 - 12:52am PT
More screed of a different ilk.

Yeah, about what I expected from you.

Sad.
jstan

climber
Topic Author's Reply - Jul 12, 2015 - 04:30am PT
It appears the U turn following the Greek referendum has acted primarily to cause doubts about the intentions inside Greece. Merkel is probably thinking beyond a Greek exit.


http://money.cnn.com/2015/07/11/news/economy/greece-bailout-europe-talks/

Greece bailout talks: Still no deal
By Mark Thompson @MarkThompsonCNN

Greece has still not done enough to persuade its creditors to hand over another $80 billion in emergency loans, money it urgently needs to avoid bankruptcy and to keep using the euro.

Finance officials from the 19 countries that use the euro met in Brussels Saturday to review austerity measures and reforms Greece said it was prepared to take in exchange for a new bailout.

But after nearly nine hours of talks, there was still no sign of an agreement to begin formal negotiations on a new bailout. The discussions were adjourned and would resume Sunday 5 am ET.

Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who chairs the meeting of eurozone finance ministers said "the issue of credibility and trust was discussed" and overall the Greek bailout talks are "still very difficult."

The talks follow a vote in the Greek parliament early Saturday that gave the country's left-wing government a mandate for economic reforms it had previously rejected just 10 days ago.

Greeks had also voted by a big margin against them in a referendum last Sunday. The imminent threat of economic catastrophe appears to have forced the government's U-turn.

The frantic round of diplomacy comes after European leaders gave Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras an ultimatum this week: Show us you're serious about putting Greek finances in order, or you're out of the eurozone.

Officials in Brussels said the Greek proposals were a positive step, but it was still far from certain whether formal negotiations on a new rescue could begin.

Greece has not yet said how much money it wants in its third bailout since 2010.

Austria's finance minister Hans Joerg Schelling told reporters the loans would total about 72 billion euros ($80 billion), including a contribution from the International Monetary Fund, over three years.

Greece has already received about 233 billion euros from Europe and the IMF in the past five years.

The package of reforms Greece is proposing includes spending cuts, tax hikes, and plans to phase out tax discounts on some islands, among many other things. Greece is also proposing changes to public pensions, such as raising the retirement age, and steps to improve tax collection.

They're very similar to ideas put forward by the country's creditors in late June before Tsipras walked out of talks, triggering the collapse of the last bailout and forcing the closure of Greece's banks.

But on their own they don't go far enough.

Special report: Greece in Crisis
Here are several obstacles to a deal:
1. Greece will need to accept even tougher reforms and fiscal targets to take account of the rapid deterioration in its finances and economic outlook caused by the closure of its banks and the introduction of capital controls.
2. Trust in the Greek government's commitment to reforms, and its ability to implement them, has been shattered by the series of U-turns seen in the past couple of weeks.
3. Opinion in some other countries that use the euro, including Germany and Finland, is running very high against another rescue for Greece. Taxpayers don't want to put more public money at risk. A new bailout would need to be ratified by parliament in Germany, and a handful of other countries.
4. Greece wants creditors to restructure its debt. Europe could give it even more time to pay back loans, and cut already very low rates of interest, but that may not be enough. Some eurozone countries insist they can't go further and cancel Greek debt outright.
5. That in turn could kill a deal. Some eurozone countries say they'll only back a third bailout if the IMF takes part. The IMF has made clear that it will only participate if the Europeans agree to restructure Greece's debt.
So the pressure is on. If talks fail this weekend, all 28 heads of government in the European Union are on standby to fly to Brussels for an emergency summit late Sunday.
That meeting would discuss how to cope with the unpredictable fallout of a Greek exit from the euro.
rockermike

Trad climber
Berkeley
Jul 12, 2015 - 05:31am PT
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2011/07/goldman-bet-against-entire-european-nations-who-were-clients-the-same-way-it-bet-against-its-subprime-mortgage-clients.html

Somewhat dated article.... but still teaches us something about how this sausage was made....
couchmaster

climber
Jul 12, 2015 - 07:49am PT
To Craig
"A 7th Day Adventist!!"
and Randy
"a different ilk."
, ahhh, if only you had the brains to be able to successfully attack the argument instead of the poster. Better luck next time.



To Rockermike, that looks like a stunning work which I will be reading. Thanks for the heads up.

"John Perkins started and stopped writing Confessions of an Economic Hit Man four times over 20 years. He says he was threatened and bribed in an effort to kill the project, but after 9/11 he finally decided to go through with this expose of his former professional life. Perkins, a former chief economist at Boston strategic-consulting firm Chas. T. Main, says he was an "economic hit man" for 10 years, helping U.S. intelligence agencies and multinationals cajole and blackmail foreign leaders into serving U.S. foreign policy and awarding lucrative contracts to American business. "Economic hit men (EHMs) are highly paid professionals who cheat countries around the globe out of trillions of dollars," Perkins writes. Confessions of an Economic Hit Man is an extraordinary and gripping tale of intrigue and dark machinations. Think John Le Carré, except it's a true story."

Locker style edit: nevermind Mike, I just read some of the plentiful 1 star Amazon reviews and it looks like it's full of opinion and low on facts....much like Craig and Randy:-)

One reviewer recommended "America's Secret War" instead, which looks better. http://www.amazon.com/Americas-Secret-War-Worldwide-Struggle/dp/0767917855/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1436712931&sr=8-1&keywords=America%27s+Secret+War
looking sketchy there...

Social climber
Lassitude 33
Jul 12, 2015 - 10:45am PT
Yo Couch,

If you read my comment carefully, I make no negative comments about Mad at all. The "different ilk" was directed to Ron Paul vs Rand Paul.

Resorting to ad hominem is generally a cheap shot because one's argument is weak, one is incapable or articulating a sound argument, or perhaps just frustration. I may disagree with Mad's views, but at least he presents them in an articulate manner.

...if only you had the brains to be able to successfully attack the argument
Is this abject ad hominen meant to be ironic?

Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Jul 12, 2015 - 10:47am PT
Borrow and spend! Borrow and spend! The mantra of the criminally insane when it's done at a national level.

Oh, no.

You got it backwards. "Borrow and spend" is the Republican way.

"Tax and spend" is the Democrat way. Democrats believe in paying as you go along.

Republicans believe that they'll find a way to cut the debt on loans, or find someone else to pay for them, so they borrow, instead.
looking sketchy there...

Social climber
Lassitude 33
Jul 12, 2015 - 11:05am PT
...looks like it's full of opinion and low on facts. Much like Craig and Randy.

Now that is the epitome of "opinion," though I'm certainly not vouching for Craig in any respect.

If you really are interested whether what I wrote about the history of the Jefferson Anti-Federalism relevant to banking (or US Monetary History) is fact or opinion, I'd be willing to refer you to source material. [And these are not cherry-picked factoid's used to support someone's latest book being hawked to an already biased audience.]
ruppell

climber
Jul 12, 2015 - 11:21am PT
Is this the "incident" the US Military is practicing for with JadeHelm 15?


rockermike

Trad climber
Berkeley
Jul 12, 2015 - 04:43pm PT
"Locker style edit: nevermind Mike, I just read some of the plentiful 1 star Amazon reviews and it looks like it's full of opinion and low on facts. Much like Craig and Randy. "

Coach... I'm aware of the naysayers. ... but there are plenty who appreciate the book. My suspicion is that there is coordinated effort to discredit the guy - given they couldn't shut him up. your milage may vary.

But how exactly is one supposed to prove that you met with the president of some bannana republic in 1972... only to have him die in a air accident a week later?

Anyway for myself I found the guy credible. Give it a shot.
Fritz

Trad climber
Choss Creek, ID
Jul 12, 2015 - 04:58pm PT
Re Rdog's comment:

I listen to warnings from the smartest economic and financial people around, and all of them have been predicting a collapse of our economy. And what is taking place right now abroad reflects what those people are saying.

Having sold emergency survival supplies at a wholesale level to folks that think like Rdog during the last 24 years, I accept that they, like Rdog, are always predicting disaster for our economy & society.

It may be a sincere belief, or it may help them to make a living off of selling their own paranoid fantasies and/or stuff to folks who wish to survive their predicted upcoming economic or social disasters.

Either way, in their world there is never a rosy future & never a good day coming.

Selling to those folks was a good living for me, but I am so damn glad I don't have to do it anymore.

Spew on folks, maybe Rdog can sell lots more guns & ammo next week.

rottingjohnny

Sport climber
mammoth lakes ca
Jul 12, 2015 - 05:58pm PT
Fritz...Don't be so sure about your rosy future...The yellow bellied marmots are invading Choss Creek and you don't have enough magnum loads or wine to survive that stampede....rj
johnboy

Trad climber
Can't get here from there
Jul 12, 2015 - 06:25pm PT
I'm still waiting for that immediate threat at the border that RA and BB were crying about seven or so months ago.
Sula

Trad climber
Pennsylvania
Jul 12, 2015 - 08:09pm PT
Ken M posted:
"Tax and spend" is the Democrat way. Democrats believe in paying as you go along.
I seee! Very helpful!

I now understand why US federal debt has grown so little since Jan 2009.
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
mammoth lakes ca
Jul 12, 2015 - 08:55pm PT
Sula...Somebody's got to pay for the Iraq invasion that Bush had a big hard on for...Maybe that has something to do with the deficit along with his Tax cuts for the rich...Oh , never mind...
Sula

Trad climber
Pennsylvania
Jul 12, 2015 - 09:05pm PT
r.j. posted:
Somebody's got to pay for the Iraq invasion
Fortunately, the "pay as you go along" folks have been in charge for 6 years, which explains why we've been so successful dealing with this sort of thing by means of taxes rather than any increase in debt.
Norton

Social climber
Jul 12, 2015 - 09:20pm PT
wrong

The Republican have controled the House of Representatives since 2010.

Per our Constitution all spending must be passed by the House

The House Republicans continually vote to add to the national debt by voting on and
passing spending legislation that is in excess of income = deficit spending

And now the Senate is also majority Republicans since 14, doesn't matter because one must understand that the Republican House is THE spending branch

Do not go down the road of "spending" = Bush doubled the national debt, and Reagan
tripled it, both Republicans

Do not even hint at "economy", we were in a Republican Recession when bush left office

Good night

BLUEBLOCR

Social climber
joshua tree
Jul 12, 2015 - 09:44pm PT
Wiki
The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA) (Pub.L. 111–5), commonly referred to as the Stimulus or The Recovery Act, was an economic stimulus package enacted by the 111th United States Congress in February 2009 and signed into law on February 17, 2009, by President Barack Obama.
To respond to the Great Recession, the primary objective for ARRA was to save and create jobs almost immediately. Secondary objectives were to provide temporary relief programs for those most affected by the recession and invest in infrastructure, education, health, and renewable energy. The approximate cost of the economic stimulus package was estimated to be $787 billion at the time of passage, later revised to $831 billion between 2009 and 2019.[1] The Act included direct spending in infrastructure, education, health, and energy, federal tax incentives, and expansion of unemployment benefits and other social welfare provisions. It also created the President's Economic Recovery Advisory Board.
The rationale for ARRA was from Keynesian macroeconomic theory, which argues that, during recessions, the government should offset the decrease in private spending with an increase in public spending in order to save jobs and stop further economic deterioration. Shortly after the law was passed, Nobel laureate Paul Krugman, while supportive of the law, criticized the law for being too weak because it did not "even cover one third of the (spending) gap".

how would it look if we all practiced this kind of spend as you go %d
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 12, 2015 - 10:08pm PT
I thought this thread was about Greece?
BLUEBLOCR

Social climber
joshua tree
Jul 12, 2015 - 10:13pm PT
isn't Greece just wanting to copy us copying the Keynesian?
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Jul 12, 2015 - 11:02pm PT
I now understand why US federal debt has grown so little since Jan 2009.

Well, President Obama got stuck with TWO wars, which President Bush kept off the budget, hiding it financially.

the preference was to raise taxes (end special low tax rates for the rich), but the democrats didn't have the votes.

So the only alternative was to borrow, or to shut both wars down abruptly.
Republicans found borrowing the more acceptable, and allowed that to happen.

RE: ARRA. It worked. Remember what the Republicans, in their financial expertise offered: Mit guaranteed that by the end of his first term, unemployment would be down to EIGHT PERCENT.

Gosh, that would have been much better than where we are......
rockermike

Trad climber
Berkeley
Jul 13, 2015 - 04:18am PT
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jul/13/euro-family-angela-merkel-greek-bailout

Another good one

Time to start boycotting Germany (and Finland).
Gunkie

climber
Jul 13, 2015 - 05:57am PT
I cannot believe the Greeks are getting yet another line of credit. I didn't put any money in the market betting one way or the other, but I would have bet on a Grexit. If you bet right, you could have made a lot of money today.
fear

Ice climber
hartford, ct
Jul 13, 2015 - 06:27am PT
The can will be kicked until the can cannot be kicked.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Jul 13, 2015 - 07:18am PT
^^^^ True dat.
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Jul 13, 2015 - 10:00am PT
Lets get real libtardios ,, The natl debt has risen far sharper under OBama than it did under Bush.


Yeah, lets get real, rong.

Next time you're out on a boat, we'll throw a 500 lb anchor overboard, and hand the anchor rope that is unwinding, to you. Then, when you hit the bottom of the ocean, we can cackle about what a fool you were to take over someone else's problem.

One can argue over who was responsible for the biggest recession in history. No debate that it began on Bush's watch.

There is also no doubt as to the two competing ideas to get us out of it: Obama and Romney.

Obama has got us to nearly 6 percent
Romney promised to get us to 8 percent unemployment.

We are not burying servicemen every week anymore, but the Repugs just consider them disposable equipment.
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Jul 13, 2015 - 10:04am PT
this package was totally predictable.

Markets, economies, gov't's do not like uncertainty.

What would have happened if Greece had failed?

Who knows?

Set off another recession? Progressive failure of EU countries?
Worldwide stock crashes? Revolutionary gov't changes?

Or where we are this morning-----stability in all those things.

Who would have make the other choice who held a responsible job?
BLUEBLOCR

Social climber
joshua tree
Jul 13, 2015 - 10:54am PT

Who would have make the other choice who held a responsible job?

What kind of responsibility are we teaching when we forgive debt and continue handing trillions over to greedy politicians????
JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
Jul 13, 2015 - 11:22am PT
Markets, economies, gov't's do not like uncertainty.

What would have happened if Greece had failed?

Who knows?

Ken, the markets know that sooner or later Greece will fail to repay its debt. That's why the only source of "bailout" funding is from governments. What we don't know is what misery the Greeks will undergo as economic reality forces those who retired in reliance on government pensions to get less real pension income.

I wish I saw an easy or a simple solution, but this can gets increasingly difficult to kick down the road.

And I would add that while Greece makes a metaphor of some use for states of the US, I think the situation of US debt differs substantially from that of Greece, if for no other reason than we can repay our national debt in our national currency, over which no other nation has control.

John
skitch

Gym climber
Bend Or
Jul 13, 2015 - 01:39pm PT
Nows the time to buy some stocks!!!

(hint, hint. . .buy low sell high?!?)
pyro

Big Wall climber
Calabasas
Jul 13, 2015 - 02:17pm PT
the only source of "bailout" funding is from governments

yerp! China just did that
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 13, 2015 - 02:19pm PT
Well, Skitch, that advice jibes with yer residence: BendO'r. ;-)
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
mammoth lakes ca
Jul 13, 2015 - 02:20pm PT
doh...... !
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 13, 2015 - 07:36pm PT
Seems that while I was away this thread underwent a hijacking and suffered from scope creep. We were intelligently discussing the Greek Crisis, not Libtard U.S. Politics.

Unfortunately the usual suspects crept in and nearly destroyed the decent dialogue that was being conducted in a civil manner, free of personal attacks and slander.

From my viewpoint, the crisis is FAR from over, since all the players are simply postponing the true Day of Judgment; it's called in the popular media, "Kicking the Can Down the Road." Bottom line: the Germans are fukked; as a corollary: the Greeks are fukked.

The austerity measures are stifling the Greek economy to an extent that makes the availability of any revenues to tax, and thereby pay back the "bailout loans," a moot point. The Greek economy couldn't generate enough revenues to pay off Eu 326 Billion, and yet, they are being "asked" to now pay back Eu 400 Billion. It. Ain't. Gonna. Happen.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 13, 2015 - 09:05pm PT
This is the economic redux of the 1938 Munich Agreement.

The only question now is either when is Round Four or when do the Panzers roll?
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
mammoth lakes ca
Jul 13, 2015 - 09:21pm PT
Brokendown...The usual suspect , Reilly , crept in again...Now his Panzers seem to be in a bunch...Damn him...rj
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Jul 13, 2015 - 09:42pm PT
What kind of responsibility are we teaching when we forgive debt and continue handing trillions over to greedy politicians????

We are teaching that when someone is put into a position of responsibility for an economy, they should make decisions that do not crash that economy on their watch.

You appear to want to teach that to PROVE A POINT, you would deliberately put at risk the entire EU. What you would learn is how to collect unemployment.
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Jul 13, 2015 - 09:44pm PT
KenMmmmmmmmm, sorry to dash your hopes of my drowning, but id be smart enough to lash that anchor rope the the bow long before the weight of that anchor hit me. Apparently Obama didn't know the "knots" or how to secure that anchor.


REALLY? And yet, he fixed the recession and unemployment faster than any Repug said that they could.

Fancy that.
BLUEBLOCR

Social climber
joshua tree
Jul 13, 2015 - 10:25pm PT

You appear to want to teach that to PROVE A POINT, you would deliberately put at risk the entire EU. What you would learn is how to collect unemployment.

i've learned that when borrowing money there has to be a POINT.

my neighbor stopped making payments on his car. They came and took it. Now he walks.

Greece has had 10 yrs to get their affairs inorder, and they continue to spend more then they earn. It's time to lay off the baklava. They decline on their loan and offer no apology or plan for a different direction. Then basically demand more money. i understand wanting to help the people of Greece, but at the same time there has to be a change in the upper tier..
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 13, 2015 - 10:28pm PT
REALLY? And yet, he fixed the recession and unemployment faster than any Repug said that they could

No he didn't, the world's greatest and most resilient economy fixed itself
with the Fed's help.

Now, let's get back to Greece.
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 14, 2015 - 10:03am PT
Now, let's get back to Greece.

That's the point of this entire thread, not how great/lousy Obama has done/not done. Leave the U.S. politics elsewhere...
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Jul 14, 2015 - 01:43pm PT
No he didn't, the world's greatest and most resilient economy fixed itself
with the Fed's help.

As he said it would.....and as the Repugs said it would NOT.

To bring this back to the Greece subject, we are seeing an interplay of the same arguments: Punish the weak to teach them, or help the weak, while the background conditions change for the better---and a rising tide floats all boats.

The world is still recovering from recession. As it improves, Greece will do better.

Remember that the SAME repug reasoning was used to demand the default of GM. Instead, they were supported, they turned around, they turn a profit, and all loans were paid back ahead of time, at a profit.

The Repugs would have deep-sixed them "to teach them a lesson".

The Repugs are really into lessons. They are the opposite of the Japanese quality saying: "fix the problem, not the blame".
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 14, 2015 - 03:39pm PT
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

The International Banksters are NOT the "Repugs." This is about the ECB, and the Deutsche Bundesbank. Oh.. and the word "Compassion" doesn't exist in their vocabulary.
Gary

Social climber
From A Buick 6
Jul 14, 2015 - 06:43pm PT
Greek bailout: $344,500,000,000
USA bailout/TARP: $700,000,000,000
Fritz

Trad climber
Choss Creek, ID
Jul 14, 2015 - 07:01pm PT
U.S. stock markets are now up 4 days in a row & the S & P 500 is approaching its May 2015 alltime high.

Apparently those with money to invest are not listening to the doomesters & gloomsters on this thread.

That's good.

Sooooooo-

I won't forecast what's going to happen with Greece, but after all the hype, their effect on the rest of the world will be minimal.

And our stock market will either be up or down over the next 12 months.

I have sold none of our stock portfolio.

I always enjoy a "gud" ride!
High Fructose Corn Spirit

Gym climber
Jul 14, 2015 - 07:09pm PT
and yet...


Do we add a suit and tie to the guys on top to make it more accurate?

lol
climbski2

Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
Jul 14, 2015 - 09:41pm PT
EGADS Even the IMF is telling the EURO they have their heads up their ass regarding Greece and their demands for austerity.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/15/upshot/the-imf-is-telling-europe-the-euro-doesnt-work.html?abt=0002&abg=0

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-33531845
BLUEBLOCR

Social climber
joshua tree
Jul 14, 2015 - 10:21pm PT

I won't forecast what's going to happen with Greece, but after all the hype, their effect on the rest of the world will be minimal.

Oh good, you mean we'll all keep gettin that yummy Greek yogurt; )
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
mammoth lakes ca
Jul 14, 2015 - 11:14pm PT
...It's always a sore subject with some of the posters on this site when mention is made of Bush's grand recession...In their minds the recession never happened or worse yet think it was caused by Obama who wasn't in office when the economy tanked...The denial , excuses , and intellectual double talk come avalanching down in an attempt to hide the obvious incompetence that is associated with the so-called fiscally responsible party that they blindly worship...Greeces financial problems are a reflection of what tanked our economy during the W years when Bush cut taxes while increasing military spending and with Greece simply not collecting taxes... so let's focus on the splinter in Greece's eye as our country , 7 years later , tries to recover from a train wreck that was choreographed by America's smartest economists...
Jan

Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
Jul 14, 2015 - 11:54pm PT
Here's an article from Foreign Policy that maintains the whole Greek crisis is really about the EU leaders getting Greece and other countries plus their own tax payers to help rescue the big banks in northern Europe which were even more heavily levera,ged than ours. Greece actually received very little of the bailout money but was simply a way station in the process of shuffling it from both northern and Greek taxpayers to the banks. The Germans blaming the Greeks for their fiscal sins is merely a cover for what's really going on.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/greece/2015-07-07/pain-athens?cid=nlc-twofa-20150709&sp_mid=49066558&sp_rid=d2xvZGVrMUBjb21jYXN0Lm5ldAS2
rockermike

Trad climber
Berkeley
Jul 15, 2015 - 02:11am PT
Thanks Jan. Best article so far.
rockermike

Trad climber
Berkeley
Jul 15, 2015 - 07:02am PT
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jul/15/imf-greece-future-analysis-bailout

US expresses its opinion via the IMF. Keep Greece out of Putin's orbit must be first goal.
Craig Fry

Trad climber
So Cal.
Jul 15, 2015 - 11:04am PT
Good thing the libtards came in and started talking about the real problem, Banksters and Conservatives

Obviously the Conservatives will shift the blame away from them, that's how they get away with what they do, propaganda and ignorance of the people. It's all Greece's fault, and corruption and this and that, it couldn't be me that supports these conservatives and their bankster owners, they told me so!


Greece: the brutality of Euro-creditors and “banksters”

http://www.lemauricien.com/article/greece-brutality-euro-creditors-and-banksters

If you genuinely care about people and their basic human rights, then you’ll easily see the madness of a strict and harsh austerity package and the dire consequences of its implementation upon people’s livelihoods. But if you are one of those utterly selfish people for whom private greed always has to take precedence over public need, then subjecting vulnerable people to inhumane and degrading treatment through austerity would be quite normal for you.
For a number of reasons, Greece has to carry out certain reforms but not necessarily what the Eurogroup has been advocating using all kinds of dirty tricks against, and unacceptable pressures on, the Greek government. Working hard to put one's finances on a better and eventually sound footing can, and must, go hand in hand with the adoption and implementation of measures to boost economic growth. After all, a country’s debt cannot be seen in the same way as you would your average household’s debt.
Unfortunately, the creditors think otherwise and the people of Greece have suffered as a result. They continue to suffer precisely because of the measures concocted in Brussels not to boost their economy but to curb their standard of living, deprive them of their wealth and inflate the obscene profit levels of banks. These institutions borrow on the money markets at very low interest rates to lend to Greece at very high interest rates. In the aftermath of the global financial meltdown of 2008, how much did banks across the globe pay off to sovereign nation-states which bailed them out with public money?
There are many observers and analysts who believe that inflicting so much pain on innocent people is horribly cruel and cannot be condoned. They include Joseph Stiglitz, Paul Krugman, Dr Rowan Williams (ex-archbishop of Canterbury), Pope Francis, Noam Chomsky, Thomas Piketty, Dominique de Villepin and many others. Hence their support for the Greeks, directly or indirectly.
In the referendum held on Sunday 5 July, the suffering people of Greece understandably said NO to crippling austerity. The Eurogroup typically made it clear that for negotiations to restart with Alexis Tsipras as head of the Greek government, his finance minister had to go. Yanis Varoufakis immediately walked away, or rather drove away on his motorbike, saying that he wore the creditors’ loathing with pride.
Craig Fry

Trad climber
So Cal.
Jul 15, 2015 - 11:12am PT
Vampire Banks Will Suck Greece Dry

Saturday, July 11, 2015 22:04


By Jonathan Cook

http://beforeitsnews.com/banksters/2015/07/vampire-banks-will-suck-greece-dry-2435466.html

Former Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis offers a clear explanation of what the euro-elites have been really up to in enforcing endless austerity on Greece.

The popular line that Greeks need to pay the price for their years of profligacy and learn fiscal discipline is, as Varoufakis observes, cover for the euro-elites’ efforts to force European tax-payers to bail out yet again the recklessness of their nation’s banks. That is why the “debt relief” for Greece is helping the banks rather than ordinary Greeks.

After the 2008 financial crash, the banks had to be saved from their reckless lending to individuals through deeply unpopular bail-outs (so-called QE, or “quantitative easing”).

Now that the banks are exposed to the debts caused by their equally reckless lending to whole nations, led by Greece but also including Spain, Portugal, Ireland and others, they need another massive bailout. But rightly that won’t wash with European taxpayers, so the euro-elites have distracted us with the idea that only through austerity can Greece be rehabilitated and fixed.

The problem, however, is that the financial sector is what really needs restructuring and rehabilitating. It has been simply buying time since the 2008 crash to keep on with its profoundly self-destructive practices, destroying not only individual families’ lives but whole nations, while a tiny elite suck out their wealth like besuited vampires.

This pain is not going to stop for Greece – in fact it is going to keep spreading to other nations – until wholesale finance reform is taken seriously.


http://www.globalresearch.ca/greece-the-pearl-of-the-mediterranean-how-to-beat-banksters-at-their-own-game/5461155

The Greeks were right to reject paying the debts, for these debts were forced upon them by the giant vampire squid, Goldman Sachs, in words of Matt Taibbi. “The first thing you need to know about Goldman Sachs is that it’s everywhere. The world’s most powerful investment bank is a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money”. As we now know, Goldman Sachs (you do not have to be an anti-Semite to hate them) cooked the book,s falsely pretending Greece had a high credit rating though they knew of its huge debts. When the debts snowballed, they pulled the rug and collapsed Greece’s rating, bailing out banks at the expense of the European taxpayer.

Out of €320 billion, Greece received and used about €20 billion, while the principal sum went to the banksters. Greece could not pay it off: after five years of trying, the country is in worse shape and in deeper debt than it ever was. Austerity has destroyed lives and infrastructure. The bankers planned to sell all Greek assets: harbours, railways, lands; and you can envisage yourself who would buy it. The negotiations between the EU, IMF and Greece were dishonest, explains Ashoka Mody in widely read and technical essay. That’s why the Greeks elected the far-left party Syriza and its far-right counterpart INIL to break the rules of the rigged game.
JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
Jul 15, 2015 - 11:19am PT
In the referendum held on Sunday 5 July, the suffering people of Greece understandably said NO to crippling austerity.

Craig, you're forgetting a basic fact of contemporary Greek economics -- without a third party giving the government money, it has no ability to pay for anything but austerity. Also, despite your [other readers choose one] honor roll/rogues gallery of leftist advocates, if the banks aren't repaid, they have given, not lent, the Greek government money.

To the extent that other governments are purporting to aid Greece in a way that effectively repays the overextended banks in their own countries, that's really a matter for citizens of the outside governments to handle. Most conservatives I know dislike "crony capitalism," and using taxpayer funds to bail out banks that made poor lending decisions provides an excellent example of crony capitalism.

As far as the Greek economy is concerned, if the outside third parties make the "bailout loans" that, in effect, bail out their own banks, those third parties have simply substituted the banks' uncollectible Greek debt for their own uncollectible Greek debt. They haven't done anything to make the Greek situation worse; they just haven't made it better.

Again, the only thing that will help the Greek government provide the level of social services and payments the Greek citizens want is outright gifts from outside of Greece. I don't see that happening on a large enough scale to make a difference for the Greeks.

John
Norton

Social climber
Jul 15, 2015 - 11:26am PT
In the referendum held on Sunday 5 July, the suffering people of Greece understandably said NO to crippling austerity.

so what, the vote was an opportunity for the Greek people to show their displeasure with
the austerity they have already endured for years now

the vote changed nothing, purely symbolic

the vote did not "soften" the new lending terms

looks like Greece is in for many more years of their creditors's imposed austerity

truth: as harsh as this sounds Greece should be thankful for any more lending given them

and make no mistake, the "fault" of this mess IS very largely Greece's own doing and NOT
the fault of the European Union's willingness to continue to lend Greece money
especially knowing that the EU may never be repaid what they have already given Greece
rockermike

Trad climber
Berkeley
Jul 15, 2015 - 12:07pm PT
One has to wonder if Norton has bothered to read the half dozen or so articles linked above.?
The bailouts aren't even going to Greece - just the legal obligations. They're going to bailout the bankers who recklessly pumped money into a perennial weak economy years ago. I hear the Nazis... I mean Germans... are planning on dismantling tbe Parthenon and reassembling it in Berlin. :) They've got to pay till the last drop of blood.

Of course the lenders will never be repaid. They know that, the Greek people know that, the IMF knows that. This is just sadism. Long since time for a write off and let greece start with a clean slate.
BLUEBLOCR

Social climber
joshua tree
Jul 15, 2015 - 01:19pm PT

Of course the lenders will never be repaid. They know that, the Greek people know that, the IMF knows that. This is just sadism. Long since time for a write off and let greece start with a clean slate.

Nazi's ? Do you call black people you don't like the N word too?

Even if Greece's debt is erased today they'd fall into debt tomorrow. Don't you understand that? The problem they have, like much of the rest of the world. They/we have too many over 60 people collecting fat pensions from the Gov. and not enough people paying into the system. Period! Here in the US it takes 2 1/2 people(middle income) to pay for one person's pension and SS. We got less than 10yrs to straiten this out less we suffocate.
Craig Fry

Trad climber
So Cal.
Jul 15, 2015 - 01:54pm PT
Greece’s Debt Overhang. Looted by Wall Street and the European Central Bank

Open Letter to Mr. Alexis Tsipras, Prime Minister of Greece



By Peter Koenig

Global Research, February 06, 2015

http://www.globalresearch.ca/greeces-debt-overhang-looted-by-wall-street-and-the-european-central-bank/5430005

Dear Mr. Tsipras,

Let me first congratulate you for winning the elections on 25 January 2015. And congratulations also for dismissing the troika as one of your first deeds. Well done!

It is encouraging to see that the majority of voting Greek dares to vote for a change from the relentless misery imposed by the infamous troika – ECB, EC and IMF. The Greek people have entrusted you with the delicate task of pulling Greece out of the morass, where she has been put – totally unjustified – by this notorious troika.

Mr. Tsipras, your Government has been tricked into believing that Greece’s debt is insurmountable and could pull Europe into an abyss. Instead your country is being looted by Wall Street and their European allied too-big-to-fail banksters. Of course, with the connivance of your neoliberal predecessors, some of whom have been associated with one of the biggest Wall Street gangsters, Goldman Sachs. Indeed, the President of the European Central Bank has also been associated with this criminal financial institution. In other words, the EU financial system today is run by the extended arm of Goldman Sachs – and its Washington masters.

Neoliberalism (Neo-Con) is a murderous plague. It is invading at brushfire speed the entire western world. What makes it even more diabolical is that it controls almost all the western media. Ninety percent of the news we get in the West are controlled by six giant Anglo-Saxon media corporations. They dish out every day nefarious propaganda – lies after lies after ugly lies. They brainwash people into believing what is not.

They made Europe believe that Greece with a mere 2% of the Eurozone GDP and with about 109% debt to GDP in 2009 was a danger for Europe. If Europe was to survive economically, Greece had to be ‘rescued’ – and that with hundreds of billions of Euros in new debt!

The Greek debt would have been totally manageable without outside interference. Compare it with the US current debt of 105%, and with ‘long-term unmet obligations’ (5 years) of US$ 128 trillion, more than seven times its GDP; debt that will never be paid back, but is largely absorbed by foreign nations who hold dollar reserves – as long as the dollar remains the world’s main reserve currency.

That’s when the infamous troika struck – the extended arm of Washington. It decided that Greece would need about €300 billion in different packages over about 4 years. They imposed their usual draconian conditions. Your neoliberal predecessors played along. Greece had to punish its population with severe ‘austerity’ programs. In reality, ’austerity’ is a mere euphemism for the misery they forced the Greek Government to impose on its people; privatizing public assets, reducing public services, health and education benefits, pensions, minimum wages, dismissing public servants – overall increasing unemployment from about 10% to close to 30%, and above 60% for young people, as you well know, Mr. Tsipras, causing outright famine and sometimes death from sheer destitution.

more at link
Craig Fry

Trad climber
So Cal.
Jul 15, 2015 - 01:58pm PT
Pensions are paid into by the employee, so it's called stealing when the Gov. takes it away.

SS could be solvent for the rest of eternity if it was fixed by Congress, all they have to do is lift the cap so the rich pay into it.
But the Neo-cons would rather scrap it than fix it, they say you can't make the rich pay their fair share, that's Wealth Redistribution!
TGT

Social climber
So Cal
Jul 15, 2015 - 02:15pm PT
SS could have been solvent if Johnson hadn't started robbing the "trust fund" to pay for the "great society" and succeeding administrations hadn't continued the theft of our collective retirement funds.
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
mammoth lakes ca
Jul 15, 2015 - 05:17pm PT
Craig..Come on now..The 1% are hurting..if you lower their taxes they will create more jobs...Raising the minimum wage will hurt job growth...
Gary

Social climber
From A Buick 6
Jul 15, 2015 - 05:22pm PT
Don't you understand that? The problem they have, like much of the rest of the world. They/we have too many over 60 people collecting fat pensions from the Gov. and not enough people paying into the system.

Totally wrong. If we got the parasitical .1% off our backs, we'd all be doing fine. We just can't afford to carry those leeches on our backs anymore.
TGT

Social climber
So Cal
Jul 15, 2015 - 05:36pm PT
The problem Greece has is that those "parasitical Leeches" left long ago.

There are plenty of great Greek job creators,

Just none of them in Greece.

tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Jul 15, 2015 - 08:38pm PT
I miss Yanis...apparently he had to go when the Troika realized how popular he was becoming among German youth...

[Click to View YouTube Video]
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 15, 2015 - 09:16pm PT
The banks have already taken a haircut of some 42% of the amount loaned, as the several governments involved (Germany, Austria, and Finland)have purchased much of the Greek debt and are in the process of passing the pain along to their taxpaying citizens. The banks were paid a severely discounted 58% of the debt and are actually "off the hook." The chance that this debt will be paid back is virtually nonexistent. Figure a rough 60:40 pain distribution between governments and banks. The EU is fiscally able to stand that sort of beating based on Eu 400 Billion, and the banks are well capitalized. Merkel, et. al. aren't in the business of charity, so additional "handouts" are going to have some severe restrictions included.
rockermike

Trad climber
Berkeley
Jul 15, 2015 - 09:26pm PT
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/15/radical-left-protests-across-germany-over-bailout-deal-coup-against-greeks

German left protesting in the streets. This opera ain't over until the fat lady sings. :)
climbski2

Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
Jul 15, 2015 - 09:44pm PT
What is money? What is it's purpose at this level...

Simple questions I don't pretend to know the answers to.

I'm very sure it is not simply a metric for transferring and supporting legitimate productivity. It seems to be at least as much a geopolitical tool for a game I suspect is being played in ways I cannot imagine.

Gary

Social climber
From A Buick 6
Jul 16, 2015 - 05:45am PT
The problem Greece has is that those "parasitical Leeches" left long ago.

They may physically leave the country, but they still rob from the working folk. Just like in this country, they move their factories to communist China, but they continue to live in their mansions here.

Nowadays, of course, they just import Indian slaves.
An Alabama marine construction company has agreed to pay $20 million to more than 200 guest workers from India who alleged they were kept in labor camps so squalid and crowded that one worker attempted suicide.

The settlement, announced Tuesday, resolves 11 lawsuits against Signal International filed in Alabama, Texas and Louisiana. The company has declared bankruptcy, so the settlement must be approved in bankruptcy court.

Signal International brought guest workers to Pascagoula, Miss., and other sites in 2006 and 2007 to repair oil rigs and other heavy machinery in the Gulf of Mexico that were damaged during Hurricane Katrina.

The men were trained in India as welders and pipe fitters, and came to the U.S. on promises that they would get green cards and permanent U.S. residency, according to the lawsuits filed by the workers, who put their families deep in debt to reach the U.S.

They received no green cards. Instead, the lawsuits alleged, they were confined to guarded camps, where 24 men were crammed into living spaces the size of a double-wide trailer.

According to the Southern Poverty Law Center, which pursued the case on behalf of some of the workers, Signal International forced the men to pay $35 per day to live in the labor camp and sent security guards to detain workers who complained.
http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-ff-workers-lawsuit-20150714-story.html
rockermike

Trad climber
Berkeley
Jul 16, 2015 - 07:34am PT
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jul/16/merkel-gambling-away-germanys-reputation-over-greece-says-habermas

Habermas, influential european sociologist and philosopher condemns Merkel's vindictive , 'austerity program'.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 16, 2015 - 08:00am PT
So explain to me why hard working Germans and Dutch should pay for Greeks to sit around
avoiding paying their own taxes? In effect the Germans and the Dutch members of the great
socialist brotherhood are paying the Greek socialists' taxes. Nice!

The Euro is getting hammered today but I'm no longer short it. It really
should be lower anyway and that helps them, not that it will make Mercs
or Porsches any cheaper.
Fritz

Trad climber
Choss Creek, ID
Jul 16, 2015 - 07:29pm PT
Reilly! Re your mention:

So explain to me why hard working Germans and Dutch should pay for Greeks to sit around
avoiding paying their own taxes? In effect the Germans and the Dutch members of the great
socialist brotherhood are paying the Greek socialists' taxes. Nice!


From USA TODAY. http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/07/15/greece-parliament-bailout-vote/30176167/

ATHENS — After anti-austerity protesters clashed with police nearby, Greece's parliament early Thursday accepted harsh terms demanded by creditors to receive nearly $100 billion in the country's third bailout in five years.
The measure passed overwhelmingly, 229-64, despite three dozen defections from Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras' ruling Syriza party.
The vote — cast about two hours after the midnight Wednesday deadline — will allow Athens to receive a financial lifeline from its international creditors, but comes at a significant cost of higher taxes, deep cuts in pensions and other government benefits and the sale of most state assets.
After the approval, the European Central Bank agreed to increase the limit on emergency funding to Greece, supplying much-needed funds to the debt-strapped country.


Driving home from a mountain adventure late today, I listened to NPR following up on this story & reporting Greek banks will reopen on Monday, with strict limits on allowing withdrawls.

Despite my mixed libtard/consevatard thoughts on this whole matter, it appears the Greek crisis is “mostly-over" for the moment.

Yes!

Greek will default on their loans, but that’s Europe’s problem.

U.S. stock markets were up again today & once again touching or beating record highs-------which is very rare in the summer months.

Studly

Trad climber
WA
Jul 16, 2015 - 07:54pm PT
Considering that there is absolutely no way we can pay off our national debt, was does that tell you about our economy Fritz? Who is going to bail us out? What will the stock market look like then?
rockermike

Trad climber
Berkeley
Jul 16, 2015 - 08:26pm PT
Well China could come marching in and take their blood. I bet yosemite would fetch a pretty penny. But the US has been investing heavily in arms for years - rust belt factories be damned - so we're good to go. No foreign troops will be marching in here to claim their due. I guess that was Greece's mistake. ha
Fritz

Trad climber
Choss Creek, ID
Jul 16, 2015 - 09:07pm PT
Studly: I agree it is a very complicated subject, but here is a link to a Bloomberg site that shows the story of government debt per person by country.

http://www.bloomberg.com/visual-data/best-and-worst//most-government-debt-per-person-countries

It appears that in 2014, each American could pay off their share of the public debt with around $59,000. Each Greek owes around $38,000 euros.

Think about how much average income differs between the US & Greece.

Feel free to correct me from accepted websites.

I'm not panicked about my share of our government debt.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 16, 2015 - 09:18pm PT
Think about how much average income differs between the US & Greece

Yeah, but what does a bottle of ratsina cost there?
Fritz

Trad climber
Choss Creek, ID
Jul 16, 2015 - 09:28pm PT
Reilly! I know you mis-spelled that vile liquor on porpoise.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retsina
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 16, 2015 - 09:35pm PT
I can't get a thing by you, Fritzi, at least in the oenology department.
Funny, I had a superb Greek white at a tasting at the Getty Villa Sunday.
It was astonishingly good - sort of a sauvignon blanc with just the merest
touch of sweetness - perfect for the horse d'oeuvres of figs wrapped in
pancetta. OMG!

BTW, off to the Winds tomorrow! WOOT!
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 17, 2015 - 11:18am PT
In the long run, Greece leaving the EU should benefit the country enormously. They will all have to go back to work at their jobs, be taxed, and live happily ever after. Not.

Germany, Netherlands, Finland, and Austria will heave a sigh of relief from no longer being burdened by a deadbeat economy. The price was only Eu 400 Billion. They got off cheap.

Fritz & Reilly: Retsina = disgusting; agreed!
JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
Jul 17, 2015 - 11:21am PT
Germany, Netherlands, Finland, and Austria will heave a sigh of relief from no longer being burdened by a deadbeat economy. The price was only Eu 400 Billion. They got off cheap.

This reminds me of a quote that I think was attributed to Kaiser Wilhelm II during WWI, about being allied with Austria-Hungary: "We are chained to a corpse."

John
rockermike

Trad climber
Berkeley
Jul 17, 2015 - 04:10pm PT
This copied from a link i posted above. I think its a very important point. Germany has ruined its own hard fought for reputation by being a total dick in public.

"Jürgen Habermas, one of the intellectual figureheads of European integration, has launched a withering attack on the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, accusing her of “gambling away” the efforts of previous generations to rebuild the country’s postwar reputation with her hardline stance on Greece.Speaking about the bailout deal for the first time since it was presented on Monday, the philosopher and sociologist said the German chancellor had effectively carried out “an act of punishment” “I fear that the German government, including its social democratic faction, have gambled away in one night all the political capital that a better Germany had accumulated in half a century,” he told the Guardian. Previous German governments, he said, had displayed “greater political sensitivity and a post-national mentality”.Habermas, widely considered one of the most influential contemporary European intellectuals, said that by threateningGreece with an exit from the eurozone over the course of the negotiations, Germany had “unashamedly revealed itself as Europe’s chief disciplinarian and for the first time openly made a claim for German hegemony in Europe."
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 17, 2015 - 04:54pm PT
The Germans were simply sick and tired of being asked to pay for Big Fat Greek Vacations---for the Greeks. Try for a Northern European Hegemony instead; the Finns and Dutch were just as pissed.

The Eu 400 Billion will never be repaid. The rest of the EU is stuck with the bill, but principally the Germans.
John Duffield

Mountain climber
New York
Jul 17, 2015 - 04:55pm PT
Back to the subject though, there doesn't seem to be a whole lot of "market turbulence".
Fritz

Trad climber
Choss Creek, ID
Jul 17, 2015 - 05:17pm PT
For some reason I just recalled the old joke about Heaven & Hell in Europe.



Heaven Is Where:

The French are the chefs
The Italians are the lovers
The British are the police
The Germans are the mechanics
And the Swiss make everything run on time

Hell is Where:

The British are the chefs
The Swiss are the lovers
The French are the mechanics
The Italians make everything run on time
And the Germans are the police

I would add the Greeks, to make them the Bankers of Hell, but I'm not sure what they excel at, other than partying.

Reading about Angela Merkel being ripped on reminds me of a recent article I read about her. She was in her former life, an East German research scientist, but now she is apparently obsessed with polls that show what Germans really want & her politics reflect those polls.

So-----you might as well hate the German poll-takers and the German people, rather than specifically Angela.

I don't hate any of the Euros involved. Hating takes way too much time out of my day.

During a long drive out of the mountains yesterday, I listened to an interesting story on NPR about a Greek woman who had inherited her families’ ancient & productive Olive grove. It turns out that almost all Greek Olive Oil is pretty wonderful and is mostly sold in tanker-load quantities to Italian merchants, shipped to Italy, bottled & labeled as Italian Olive Oil & sold worldwide at much higher prices.

This strong Greek woman decided to cut out the Italians and bottle & sell directly her own quality Olive Oil. She fought through a maze of government regulation to open her own bottling plant, had to buy her bottles in Italy, since no-one in Greece could make bottles to her specs, then discovered the cash-strapped Greek government was requiring business to pay taxes one year in advance, to help the government survive.

She also had to pay cash in advance for her Olive Oil bottles, since no merchant in Europe is extending credit to anyone in Greece.

Somehow, she survived and is now selling her Olive Oil in Europe & Canada, with the U.S. as her next market objective.


Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 17, 2015 - 05:24pm PT
I'm sure the average German could care less about Angela's 'reputation'.

Here in Pinedale I am happy to report international bonds did well today. PROST!
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 17, 2015 - 07:35pm PT
It just occurred to me that when I was still in the Chemical business, one of my chief competitors was based in Greece. I wonder how well they're doing? Since they marketed internationally, I'm guessing "not very well."
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 20, 2015 - 10:31am PT
An excellent article about Tsipras on Reuters:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/20/us-eurozone-greece-tsipras-special-repor-idUSKCN0PU0RU20150720

Talk about the blind leading the blind!
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 21, 2015 - 07:16am PT
Fritz-

Do you have the brand name of the Greek woman's Olive Oil? I'd buy it, since that's the only variety of vegetable oil I use at home.
HermitMaster

Social climber
my abode
Jul 21, 2015 - 10:36pm PT
John Duffield

Mountain climber
New York
Jul 22, 2015 - 06:53am PT
Good cartoon. I'm not familiar with the finances, but I'm guessing it's too late for simply austerity. I'm guessing, they need a full blown Bankruptcy and baseline off that. Not something new, I read once there were several bankruptcies in the 19th century.

It really boils down to, whether they love their country or not. Whether they will stay and fix it for future generations or they will emigrate and leave it to the Syrian refugees.
TGT

Social climber
So Cal
Jul 22, 2015 - 07:16am PT
Meanwhile the US Federal Reserve private bank is caught between a rock and a hard place.

If they cease artificially manipulating the gold markets, the value of gold will sky rocket and the value of the dollar will plummet. (You can see gold value driven down almost daily during the first few minutes of markets opening...i.e. on Kitco.com)

Been watching it ever since this was posted.

Just about every day between the NY market opening and 10:00 EDT someone drives the price down sharply.
Jan

Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
Jul 23, 2015 - 10:29am PT
Here's a free Stratfor article that is more sympathetic to the Germans based on geopolitics. Note that it was written five years ago. As the French say, the more things change the more they remain the same.

Germany's Choice
Geopolitical Weekly FEBRUARY 8, 2010

By Marko Papic and Peter Zeihan

The situation in Europe is dire.

After years of profligate spending, Greece is becoming overwhelmed. Barring some sort of large-scale bailout program, a Greek debt default at this point is highly likely.
At this moment, European Central Bank liquidity efforts are probably the only thing holding back such a default. But these are a stopgap measure that can hold only until more important economies manage to find their feet. And Europe's problems extend beyond Greece. Fundamentals are so poor across the board that any number of eurozone states quickly could follow Greece down.

And so the rest of the eurozone is watching and waiting nervously while casting occasional glances in the direction of Berlin in hopes the eurozone's leader and economy-in-chief will do something to make it all go away. To truly understand the depth of the crisis the Europeans face, one must first understand Germany, the only country that can solve it.

Germany's Trap

The heart of Germany's problem is that it is insecure and indefensible given its location in the middle of the North European Plain. No natural barriers separate Germany from the neighbors to its east and west, no mountains, deserts, oceans. Germany thus lacks strategic depth. The North European Plain is the Continent's highway for commerce and conquest. Germany's position in the center of the plain gives it plenty of commercial opportunities but also forces it to participate vigorously in conflict as both an instigator and victim.

Germany's exposure and vulnerability thus make it an extremely active power. It is always under the gun, and so its policies reflect a certain desperate hyperactivity. In times of peace, Germany is competing with everyone economically, while in times of war it is fighting everyone. Its only hope for survival lies in brutal efficiencies, which it achieves in industry and warfare.

Pre-1945, Germany's national goals were simple: Use diplomacy and economic heft to prevent multifront wars, and when those wars seem unavoidable, initiate them at a time and place of Berlin's choosing.

"Success" for Germany proved hard to come by, because challenges to Germany's security do not "simply" end with the conquest of both France and Poland. An overstretched Germany must then occupy countries with populations in excess of its own while searching for a way to deal with Russia on land and the United Kingdom on the sea. A secure position has always proved impossible, and no matter how efficient, Germany always has fallen ultimately.

During the early Cold War years, Germany’s neighbors tried a new approach. In part, the European Union and NATO are attempts by Germany's neighbors to grant Germany security on the theory that if everyone in the immediate neighborhood is part of the same club, Germany won't need a Wehrmacht.

There are catches, of course — most notably that even a demilitarized Germany still is Germany. Even after its disastrous defeats in the first half of the 20th century, Germany remains Europe's largest state in terms of population and economic size; the frantic mindset that drove the Germans so hard before 1948 didn't simply disappear. Instead of German energies being split between growth and defense, a demilitarized Germany could — indeed, it had to — focus all its power on economic development. The result was modern Germany — one of the richest, most technologically and industrially advanced states in human history.
Germany and Modern Europe

That gives Germany an entirely different sort of power from the kind it enjoyed via a potent Wehrmacht, and this was not a power that went unnoticed or unused.
France under Charles de Gaulle realized it could not play at the Great Power table with the United States and Soviet Union. Even without the damage from the war and occupation, France simply lacked the population, economy and geographic placement to compete. But a divided Germany offered France an opportunity. Much of the economic dynamism of France's rival remained, but under postwar arrangements, Germany essentially saw itself stripped of any opinion on matters of foreign policy. So de Gaulle's plan was a simple one: use German economic strength as sort of a booster seat to enhance France's global stature.

This arrangement lasted for the next 60 years. The Germans paid for EU social stability throughout the Cold War, providing the bulk of payments into the EU system and never once being a net beneficiary of EU largesse. When the Cold War ended, Germany shouldered the entire cost of German reunificationwhile maintaining its payments to the European Union. When the time came for the monetary union to form, the deutschemark formed the euro's bedrock. Many a deutschmark was spent defending the weaker European currencies during the early days of European exchange-rate mechanisms in the early 1990s. Berlin was repaid for its efforts by many soon-to-be eurozone states that purposely enacted policies devaluing their currencies on the eve of admission so as to lock in a competitive advantage vis-à-vis Germany.

But Germany is no longer a passive observer with an open checkbook.
In 2003, the 10-year process of post-Cold War German reunification was completed, and in 2005 Angela Merkel became the first postwar German leader to run a Germany free from the burden of its past sins. Another election in 2009 ended an awkward left-right coalition, and now Germany has a foreign policy neither shackled by internal compromise nor imposed by Germany's European "partners."
The Current Crisis

Simply put, Europe faces a financial meltdown.
The crisis is rooted in Europe's greatest success: the Maastricht Treaty and the monetary union the treaty spawned epitomized by the euro. Everyone participating in the euro won by merging their currencies. Germany received full, direct and currency-risk-free access to the markets of all its euro partners. In the years since, Germany's brutal efficiency has permitted its exports to increase steadily both as a share of total European consumption and as a share of European exports to the wider world. Conversely, the eurozone's smaller and/or poorer members gained access to Germany's low interest rates and high credit rating.
And the last bit is what spawned the current problem.

Most investors assumed that all eurozone economies had the blessing — and if need be, the pocketbook — of the Bundesrepublik. It isn't difficult to see why. Germany had written large checks for Europe repeatedly in recent memory, including directly intervening in currency markets to prop up its neighbors' currencies before the euro's adoption ended the need to coordinate exchange rates. Moreover, an economic union without Germany at its core would have been a pointless exercise.
Investors took a look at the government bonds of Club Med states (a colloquialism for the four European states with a history of relatively spendthrift policies, namely, Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece), and decided that they liked what they saw so long as those bonds enjoyed the implicit guarantees of the euro. The term in vogue with investors to discuss European states under stress is PIIGS, short for Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain. While Ireland does have a high budget deficit this year, STRATFOR prefers the term Club Med, as we do not see Ireland as part of the problem group. Unlike the other four states, Ireland repeatedly has demonstrated an ability to tame spending, rationalize its budget and grow its economy without financial skullduggery. In fact, the spread between Irish and German bonds narrowed in the early 1980s before Maastricht was even a gleam in the collective European eye, unlike Club Med, whose spreads did not narrow until Maastricht's negotiation and ratification.

Even though Europe's troubled economies never actually obeyed Maastricht's fiscal rules — Athens was even found out to have falsified statistics to qualify for euro membership — the price to these states of borrowing kept dropping. In fact, one could well argue that the reason Club Med never got its fiscal politics in order was precisely because issuing debt under the euro became cheaper. By 2002 the borrowing costs for Club Med had dropped to within a whisker of those of rock-solid Germany. Years of unmitigated credit binging followed.

The 2008-2009 global recession tightened credit and made investors much more sensitive to national macroeconomic indicators, first in emerging markets of Europe and then in the eurozone. Some investors decided actually to read the EU treaty, where they learned that there is in fact no German bailout at the end of the rainbow, and that Article 104 of the Maastricht Treaty (and Article 21 of the Statute establishing the European Central Bank) actually forbids one explicitly. They further discovered that Greece now boasts a budget deficit and national debt that compares unfavorably with other defaulted states of the past such as Argentina.

Investors now are (belatedly) applying due diligence to investment decisions, and the spread on European bonds — the difference between what German borrowers have to pay versus other borrowers — is widening for the first time since Maastricht's ratification and doing so with a lethal rapidity. Meanwhile, the European Commission is working to reassure investors that panic is unwarranted, but Athens' efforts to rein in spending do not inspire confidence. Strikes and other forms of political instability already are providing ample evidence that what weak austerity plans are in place may not be implemented, making additional credit downgrades a foregone conclusion.

Germany's Choice

As the EU's largest economy and main architect of the European Central Bank, Germany is where the proverbial buck stops. Germany has a choice to make.
The first option, letting the chips fall where they may, must be tempting to Berlin. After being treated as Europe's slush fund for 60 years, the Germans must be itching simply to let Greece and others fail. Should the markets truly believe that Germany is not going to ride to the rescue, the spread on Greek debt would expand massively. Remember that despite all the problems in recent weeks, Greek debt currently trades at a spread that is only one-eighth the gap of what it was pre-Maastricht — meaning there is a lot of room for things to get worse. With Greece now facing a budget deficit of at least 9.1 percent in 2010 — and given Greek proclivity to fudge statistics the real figure is probably much worse — any sharp increase in debt servicing costs could push Athens over the brink.

From the perspective of German finances, letting Greece fail would be the financially prudent thing to do. The shock of a Greek default undoubtedly would motivate other European states to get their acts together, budget for steeper borrowing costs and ultimately take their futures into their own hands. But Greece would not be the only default. The rest of Club Med is not all that far behind Greece, and budget deficits have exploded across the European Union. Macroeconomic indicators for France and especially Belgium are in only marginally better shape than those of Spain and Italy.

At this point, one could very well say that by some measures the United States is not far behind the eurozone. The difference is the insatiable global appetite for the U.S. dollar, which despite all the conspiracy theories and conventional wisdom of recent years actually increased during the 2008-2009 global recession. Taken with the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency and the fact that the United States controls its own monetary policy, Washington has much more room to maneuver than Europe.

Berlin could at this point very well ask why it should care if Greece and Portugal go under. Greece accounts for just 2.6 percent of eurozone gross domestic product. Furthermore, the crisis is not of Berlin's making. These states all have been coasting on German largesse for years, if not decades, and isn't it high time that they were forced to sink or swim?

The problem with that logic is that this crisis also is about the future of Europe and Germany's place in it. Germany knows that the geopolitical writing is on the wall: As powerful as it is, as an individual country (or even partnered with France), Germany does not approach the power of the United States or China and even that of Brazil or Russia further down the line. Berlin feels its relevance on the world stage slipping, something encapsulated by U.S. President Barack Obama's recent refusal to meet for the traditional EU-U.S. summit. And it feels its economic weight burdened by the incoherence of the eurozone's political unity and deepening demographic problems.
The only way for Germany to matter is if Europe as a whole matters. If Germany does the economically prudent (and emotionally satisfying) thing and lets Greece fail, it could force some of the rest of the eurozone to shape up and maybe even make the eurozone better off economically in the long run. But this would come at a cost: It would scuttle the euro as a global currency and the European Union as a global player.

Every state to date that has defaulted on its debt and eventually recovered has done so because it controlled its own monetary policy. These states could engage in various (often unorthodox) methods of stimulating their own recovery. Popular methods include, but are hardly limited to, currency devaluations in an attempt to boost exports and printing currency either to pay off debt or fund spending directly. But Greece and the others in the eurozone surrendered their monetary policy to the European Central Bank when they adopted the euro. Unless these states somehow can change decades of bad behavior in a day, the only way out of economic destitution would be for them to leave the eurozone. In essence, letting Greece fail risks hiving off EU states from the euro. Even if the euro — not to mention the EU — survived the shock and humiliation of monetary partition, the concept of a powerful Europe with a political center would vanish. This is especially so given that the strength of the European Union thus far has been measured by the successes of its rehabilitations — most notably of Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain in the 1980s — where economic-basket case dictatorships and pseudo-democracies transitioned into modern economies.

And this leaves option two: Berlin bails out Athens.

There is no doubt Germany could afford such a bailout, as the Greek economy is only one-tenth of the size of the Germany's. But the days of no-strings-attached financial assistance from Germany are over. If Germany is going to do this, there will no longer be anything "implied" or "assumed" about German control of the European Central Bank and the eurozone. The control will become reality, and that control will have consequences. For all intents and purposes, Germany will run the fiscal policies of peripheral member states that have proved they are not up to the task of doing so on their own. To accept anything less intrusive would end with Germany becoming responsible for bailing out everyone. After all, who wouldn't want a condition-free bailout paid for by Germany? And since a euro-wide bailout is beyond Germany's means, this scenario would end with Germany leading the EU hat-in-hand to the International Monetary Fund for an American/Chinese-funded assistance package. It is possible that the Germans could be gentle and risk such abject humiliation, but it is not likely.

Taking a firmer tack would allow Germany to achieve via the pocketbook what it couldn't achieve by the sword. But this policy has its own costs. The eurozone as a whole needs to borrow around 2.2 trillion euros in 2010, with Greece needing 53 billion euros simply to make it through the year. Not far behind Greece is Italy, which needs 393 billion euros, Belgium with needs of 89 billion euros and France with needs of yet another 454 billion euros. As such, the premium on Germany is to act — if it is going to act — fast. It needs to get Greece and most likely Portugal wrapped up before crisis of confidence spreads to the really serious countries, where even mighty German's resources would be overwhelmed.

That is the cost of making Europe "work." It is also the cost to Germany of leadership that doesn't come at the end of a gun. So if Germany wants its leadership to mean something outside of Western Europe, it will be forced to pay for that leadership — deeply, repeatedly and very, very soon. But unlike in years past, this time Berlin will want to hold the reins.
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 24, 2015 - 08:20am PT
After reading and re-reading the article posted by Jan, the first question that entered my mind was: how can the Greek economy ever generate a large enough income base to allow taxation to ever pay off Eu 400 Billion in a lifetime? The answer is bleak. The sources of wealth generation are limited in modern economies to: Agriculture (viticulture, olive oil), manufacturing, tourism, and the financial area. One of the more successful areas of manufacture in recent years has been in the specialty chemical field (CBL Patras), and export to pharmaceutical fine chemicals industry. The sale of Greek olive oil is limited by the availability of agricultural land and the number of trees planted; this is an area in which there's a definite time constraint when considering expansion (tree growth to maturity and production); financial? Forget the financial area. Big Fat Greek Vacations? That can only be expanded to the extent of the existing service industry.

My conclusion. based on economic realities, is the debt will NEVER be repaid, and that the Germans will "eat" most of the "loans," before allowing the EU and the banks to lose the strength of the Euro. As many have also observed here, Greece is not alone in the sea of debt and insolvency: Italy, Portugal, and Spain are also teetering over the abyss.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jul 24, 2015 - 08:31am PT
Been watching it ever since this was posted.

Just about every day between the NY market opening and 10:00 EDT someone drives the price down sharply.

Thanks for sharing. I made a nice little profit on GLD this morning.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 24, 2015 - 08:37am PT
It's really hard to see how this will come out well, or even middling, for Greece.

As I said a few pages back Renzi really is making an effort in Italy but he is fighting an uphill
battle against the socialist nihilists.

Portugal seems to be staying the course on their belt-tightening.

Rajoy has done so well in Spain, albeit without significantly lowering unemployment, that he
seems likely to call early elections to put the sword to the Podemos retards, who should
change their party's name to Podriamos.
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 24, 2015 - 09:36am PT
Reilly-

My "systems analysis" indicate that the system is essentially "fukked." The Greeks are going to suffer from imprudent Socialist fiscal policies initiated by the political class. The system isn't big enough or healthy enough to create enough tax revenue to do anything significant w/r debt service. Greeks = fukked; Germans = pissed off.
Jan

Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
Jul 24, 2015 - 09:51am PT
The causes of the problem are multiple.

Economic crises, like climbing accidents, seldom have only one cause. In this case:

-Greece has no natural resources and the climate is not conducive to hard work (unlike northern Europe, Japan, or Korea)
-They are geographically isolated with unhelpful neighbors (Turkey, Bulgaria, Serbia and Albania)
-The government has favored the oligarchy who doesn't pay taxes
-To buy off the common person to support the oligarchy they gave away too many benefits
-The government paid for all this by borrowing too much
-The difference in interest rates between northern and southern Europe was so great that northern European banks speculated too much
-the northern governments used tax money to bailout their banks who then made more bad investments
-the Greek government refused the help of technical experts to try to rationalize their economy so the northern governments did it by force with the latest agreement
-there is a fundamental problem with the Euro union whereby such different economies are yoked together with no centralized financial mechanisms and no unifying laws about fiscal policy

When all the blame and moralizing is put aside, the last reason may be the most important.
JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
Jul 24, 2015 - 10:30am PT
Your last post hits the bullseye, Jan.

John
jstan

climber
Topic Author's Reply - Jul 24, 2015 - 10:45am PT
Great article Jan. Now you have me looking for the equivalent article regarding the consequences attendant on the US dollar ceasing to be the world's reserve currency.

So. Hitler was using the gun to try and create a EU. His attempt to subjugate Russia may simply have been a misjudgment. Because of the confusion associated with the Communist rebellion he did not see that Russia was one of the "major" states. He figured his army of four million could beat sixteen million if he won quickly at Stalingrad. MacArthur was possibly making the same mistake when he thought we could nuke China and win before they got a delivery system for the bomb. The clock ultimately decides everything.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jul 27, 2015 - 05:52am PT
Uh oh!

China's Shanghai Composite index shed 8.5% on Monday, a bone-rattling decline that raises questions about the government's ability to prevent a crash.
Beijing managed to stabilize markets with a dramatic rescue in late June and early July, intervening in a number of ways to limit losses for investors.
But the rout has now resumed: Monday's slump was the biggest daily percentage decline since 2007.
The vast majority of companies listed in Shanghai, including many large state-owned firms, fell by the maximum daily limit of 10%. Losses in Shanghai, and on the smaller Shenzhen Composite index, accelerated into the close. Shenzhen, which is heavy on tech stocks, closed down 7%.
MikeL

Social climber
Seattle, WA
Jul 27, 2015 - 08:26am PT
Good post, Jan.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 27, 2015 - 08:28am PT
When looking at China's stock markets do keep in mind that the number of
investors there is a small percentage of the population; they're China's
A-listers, if you will. You're not going to find massive pension funds
and the like there and foreigners aren't allowed to trade. Trading there
is more akin to gambling. It shouldn't have very wide repercussions
although it will out of proportion.
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 27, 2015 - 10:22am PT
Reilly-

Never discount the herd mentality when it comes to investors... ;)

It does, however, indicate the overbought marketplace in China, and reflects the gambling nature of paper investments. The possible "domino" effect on other world markets cannot be estimated, as many of the A-listers in the Chinese marketplace may need to begin liquidating assets in other markets (USA and Eurozone) to cover the short term losses at home. That could trigger a wave of selloffs.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 27, 2015 - 10:29am PT
Right you are Broke and, painful as it may be, we desperately need a good
solid 10% 'correction' here to cover our hedge funds' shorts and scare the
weak-willed (and weak-minded) out of the equities markets.

I'm back from Pinedale but I didn't pull the trigger on the 40 acre spread -
the accompanying house wasn't of the quality of the land. :-(
The wife still thinks she needs to be closer to 'culture', like in Breckenridge, CO.
Pinedale has all the culture I need, i.e., Teton Brewing Co.
It would be nice to have you as a neighbor, so to speak. ;-)
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 27, 2015 - 10:30am PT
Jan is dead on with 7 of her 8 reasons listed above. The only one that I would dispute is #3, regarding the Greek Oligarchs. For the most part, they have moved their ownership of shipping assets out of Greece; just because of Greek registry of vessels doesn't mean that the profits are all coming to Greece. Who knows where the ownership resides? Nigeria? Libya? Many of these despotic African hellhole states allow ships of other nations to "flag" their vessels with their national flags. Getting to the fortunes of the Greek shipping magnates is, if not impossible, very difficult through the webs of corporate dispersals of assets. They didn't get rich by being dumb or politically naïve.
blahblah

Gym climber
Boulder
Jul 27, 2015 - 11:33am PT
-Greece has no natural resources and the climate is not conducive to hard workBold Text (unlike northern Europe, Japan, or Korea)

Surprised no one called BS on this old cliche, which seems out of 1915 (or 1815 or earlier) rather than 2015.
How about they don't have that good old "Protestant Work Ethic"?

Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 27, 2015 - 11:39am PT
How dare Jan make such an insensitive comment about the weather!
The climate is hotter now than in 1915 and I hope it too isn't butthurt
by having its data impugned! Did you also know that the Arctic isn't
conducive to growing olives?
Jan

Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
Jul 27, 2015 - 02:09pm PT
Thanks Reilly.

Last thing I knew Protestantism was still confined to the northern countries of Europe and hence the Protestant Work Ethic as well.

Some people have noticed that there seems to be a Confucian work ethic also. Still it seems confined to cooler countries or those with good air conditioning. Former Prime Minister Lee Kwan Yew is quoted as saying that the success of Singapore rests on air conditioning, that without it, they would have remained a sleepy third world port.

And what about the more polite term for first versus third world which is the "North South Divide," a term coined by Willy Brandt? And then there are the northern blue states who subsidize the southern red states in our own country. Seems like a lot of exceptions to something that supposedly doesn't exist anymore.

Fritz

Trad climber
Choss Creek, ID
Jul 27, 2015 - 05:05pm PT
It's good to see the S & P 500 down only 0.58% today after the Shanghai market droppped 8.5%.

Reilly! Re your comment:
we desperately need a good solid 10% 'correction' here to cover our hedge funds' shorts and scare the
weak-willed (and weak-minded) out of the equities markets.

Fuk the Hedge funds & the weak-willed & weak minded. There appears to be enough negative news at present and soon to come, for U.S. stock markets to make some substantial gains------or not.

I ain't (too) skeered & I ain't selling.
WBraun

climber
Jul 27, 2015 - 05:37pm PT
Bottom line

The planet is steeped in gross materialism and greed.

Stupid people on this planet have lost their minds in materialism ......
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 27, 2015 - 05:45pm PT
I ain't (too) skeered

Maybe you aren't, Fritzi, but Brasil is drifting towards the brink of the
financial Iguazu. That will make Greece look a cake walk. How long can
Venezuela and Argentina tread water? Will Italy face reality and enact
the needed reforms? Will the Spanish realize they're on the right path
with Rajoy and stay the course? India seems to be drifting into a big
eddy that might become a hole if the water rises and our 'recovery' seems
to be on its last legs. Did I mention the Tobin Q ratios are at dangerous
levels? Lest I be accused of calling the glass half empty let me state
that it is my opinion that a correction will prevent the glass from emptying.
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 27, 2015 - 06:25pm PT
Maybe it's again time to review the question of : "What is money?" Yeah, it's the root of all evil, but not for greed or avarice.

What we're dealing with is the end game of Fiat Currency, where money is "borrowed in to existence." Such "money" is honored by the various lending institutions (Banks) for repayment of debts and settlement of obligations. The borrowers all have the problem of repayment with interest, which isn't "borrowed in to existence." It must be paid through the liquidation of something physical or labor. The banks have the most appealing product: money. It's hard to say no to the offer of a loan, and governments are as gullible as any individual.
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
mammoth lakes ca
Jul 27, 2015 - 08:37pm PT
I'll take a chance and answer for brokedown..he probably doesn't give a sh#t at this point in life..
drunkenmaster

Social climber
santa rosa
Jul 28, 2015 - 01:47am PT
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=greek+sex
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jul 28, 2015 - 05:59am PT
I'd say that rottingjohnny nailed it without even having to ask me...

I suspect that the motive for proposing such an inane question was to determine if I'd go on a borrowing binge, or continue living my normal ascetic lifestyle.
Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Aug 24, 2015 - 06:20pm PT
The Greek crisis is far from over, since the Prime Minister Tsirpas is preparing to resign. The Greeks have received some 13 Billion Euros as a first installment, which will simply pay off the bankers their interest.

I post this now, as the US Stock Market crashes. Many of the more perceptive posters on this thread made the prediction that the Chinese Markets would crater, followed by the US Markets.

This is a simple fact of life, based on Fiat Currencies and loose credit policies.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Aug 24, 2015 - 06:48pm PT
Well, Broke, the Chinese economy's decline is rather more nuanced, especially
as key info is at a premium*. The fact that the gubmint did nothing today
is interesting but not surprising. I read it as a signal from the Party
that while they may pick the band (and the tunes the band plays) it is your
choice to dance, or not. That many people will have to go back to shoveling
sh!t into the paddies because they thought they could get rich quickly on
the Shanghai market is a drop in the bucket and that is why that market
is so squirrely - no foreign money allowed and, hence, no liquidity.

Mark my words, Brasil is next unless they pull some prize rabbits out of
Dilma's hat. Ha, you thought I was going to say something crass, right?
China's troubles are their troubles, along with any commodity producer,
but Brasil has deep structural problems that compound the drop in commodity
prices.

Credit default swap indices spreads yesterday and today reached very
worrisome levels. This will get worse before it gets better. But I am
prepared to buy sooner than later. I really don't see this correction
going a whole lot further south. Say what you will but there is more good
than bad in our economy right now and we're not a commodity playa any more,
other than oil, and oil stocks are looking more tempting by the day.

*The lack thereof diminishes market efficiency as a lot of data is missing
or its verity is highly suspect, maybe not on a par with Argentina but that's
a really low bar. Actually, it is probably worse than Argentina because
the numbers are so large. When they cook the books in China that's some,
I can't help myself, dim sums.
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