what percent of climbers can trad lead 12c?

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rockermike

Trad climber

Berkeley

Topic Author's Original Post - Apr 11, 2015 - 04:28pm PT

This is a breakout from the Moonlight thread. Curious. What percent of climbers can trad lead 12c? My wild ass guess would be 1 percent. But I've got absolutely no basis for that. ha
Thoughts?

Batrock

Trad climber

Burbank

Apr 11, 2015 - 04:31pm PT

1% is probably a good guess. Hordes can lead 12c sport bit I know very few who can even come close to 12c trad.
It may seem that more are leading at that level but thats only because we are bombarded in the rags and media by that same 20 guys and gals climbing stuff at that level or harder.

healyje

Trad climber

Portland, Oregon

Apr 11, 2015 - 04:34pm PT

My thought is the more interesting question is how many can onsight 12c trad.

I'm sure some can, but at some point the difficulty just gets to the point where no one is going to onsight at the grade without cleaning, previewing, ticking, rehearsing and possibly retrobolting and/or pre-placing gear.

At that point is it really trad climbing and at that point does the label really matter? Not to me; at that point the name of the game is can you simply get up it clean. Seems as though on the Dawn Wall Caldwell and Jorgeson were lowering and pulling the rope after falls and so that remained of the trad ethic - kudos them in that regard.

limpingcrab

Trad climber

the middle of CA

Apr 11, 2015 - 05:08pm PT

I don't know any and I've probably met a hundred or so climbers. By that highly scientific analysis I'm going to say less than 1%

Norwegian

Trad climber

dancin on the tip of god's middle finger

Apr 11, 2015 - 05:11pm PT

grand delusion at sugarloaf
is 12+ and i've personally
seen two locals whom post
here charge their way
up the aweful overhanging fingertip
lie-back with tiny stopper
and cams for hail-mary pro.

i won't name names
except i'll call
them

paul Crawford
and that half-wit swellguy character
also known as aiden.

Evel

Trad climber

Nedsterdam CO

Apr 11, 2015 - 05:18pm PT

At my strongest I was able to lead .12c trad, and usually onsight. I never thought I was in the upper tier though. I bet a lot of young, strong climbers can do it.

Batrock

Trad climber

Burbank

Apr 11, 2015 - 05:30pm PT

If Moonlight is 12c then it's probably more accessible to a higher number or percentage of climbers than most 12c's. It eats up pro and much of it seems to be repetitive moves of the same type. It seems like the closest thing to a trad/sport climb than others of a similar grade but then again I have not been to Indian Creek. I could never climb it free in my wildest dreams but I could see if I were younger it would be a good route to work towards.

WBraun

climber

Apr 11, 2015 - 05:31pm PT

Moonlight buttress is in Zion not Indian creek ....

rockermike

Trad climber

Berkeley

Topic Author's Reply - Apr 11, 2015 - 05:40pm PT

Werner.... you're a man who knows everything. Whats your guess on 12c?

Batrock

Trad climber

Burbank

Apr 11, 2015 - 05:47pm PT

Sorry, that was my point Werner, I have not been to IC yet but I would imagine IC would be the closest thing to trad/sport climbing. I know ML is in Zion, I climbed it last year and had a blast on it.

WBraun

climber

Apr 11, 2015 - 05:56pm PT

Whats my guess on 12c?

Guess what ....

Guessing doesn't work very well.

I don't know.

It's absolutely completely unimportant to me.

Batrock

Trad climber

Burbank

Apr 11, 2015 - 06:11pm PT

Does Werner go outside anymore? he seems to post pretty quick. I live in Burbank so I have an excuse.

tradmanclimbs

Ice climber

Pomfert VT

Apr 11, 2015 - 06:19pm PT

Annother thought is how many can string a bunch of pitches together at or near that grade? not just one 30m pitch.

WBraun

climber

Apr 11, 2015 - 06:23pm PT

Batrock

I've been outside almost all day working.

I'm now inside.

Am I supposed to stand outside all night too?

:-)

the albatross

Gym climber

Flagstaff

Apr 11, 2015 - 06:29pm PT

Tough crack climb, I'm not sure of the grade.

rbord

Boulder climber

atlanta

Apr 11, 2015 - 07:26pm PT

Prolly depends a lot on who you think is a climber.

Google how your brain processes your blind spot if interested in the efficacy of guessing. Or read Blink ( or just read the description). Guessing is what we do. My guess is that your guess is probably good enough for your purpose.

Science could be a good strategy if up for the work. Or ask someone with a direct line to God if you crave more certainty.

My expert opinion is none. Yours is probably better, but mine is probably closer. I think that"s just how math works. Is math really what you wanted?

Big Mike

Trad climber

Apr 11, 2015 - 07:32pm PT

I've seen one 5.13- trad redpoint.

Ben Harnden on Sixty Nine

And i've met four other gentlemen who have led 12c or harder on gear.

Jeremy Smith
Will Stanhope
Marc Andre Leclerc
Alex Honnold

There are probably quite a few others in Squamish. My buddy Kyle is pushing 12- and I know Grippa is serious about taking a free crack at moonlight.

zBrown

Ice climber

Brujò de la Playa

Apr 11, 2015 - 07:33pm PT

gets you to wondering how many can trad follow 12c, doesn't it?

likewise, is the scale logarithmic? what base? your choice.

the albatross

Gym climber

Flagstaff

Apr 11, 2015 - 07:58pm PT

We never talked too much about numbers, but I seem to remember Brian telling me this pitch may be around .12. This is not the bullet proof sandstone of Indian Creek.

Evel

Trad climber

Nedsterdam CO

Apr 11, 2015 - 08:00pm PT

Funny, when I read this thread title I immediately thought of Brian. Nice pix Albatross.

Skeptimistic

Mountain climber

La Mancha

Apr 11, 2015 - 08:03pm PT

I would guess a few less than could trad follow 12c

thebravecowboy

climber

Lost Park

Apr 11, 2015 - 08:53pm PT

you mean like today?

Flip Flop

climber

salad bowl, california

Apr 11, 2015 - 10:43pm PT

Much much much less than 1%. Much

Matt's

climber

Apr 11, 2015 - 10:46pm PT

granite trad 12C? much less than 1%

indian creek style 12c-ish? a bit higher...

i'm gumby dammit

Sport climber

da ow

Apr 12, 2015 - 12:30am PT

Much much much less than 1%. Much

this. and probably considerably less than 1% for sport 12c as well.

Byran

climber

San Jose, CA

Apr 12, 2015 - 12:36am PT

I think I read something once, that you're not a "climber" unless you lead 12a trad.

So I'd guess around 65%

NutAgain!

Trad climber

South Pasadena, CA

Apr 12, 2015 - 01:04am PT

C'mon folks, if we include gym climbers I'm thinking more like 1 in 1000 or 10,000.

Then again, maybe I just don't get out to the cool places to see all the rippers these days.

Byran

climber

San Jose, CA

Apr 12, 2015 - 01:49am PT

So then how many worldwide can onsight flash 12c trad including every 12c trad route given an R/X ?

Really...very few!!

Just off the top of my head I can think of a few bold 5.12 routes which have never seen an ascent without prior toproping. So what does that mean? Are there zero people in the world who can lead 5.12c trad?

rockermike

Trad climber

Berkeley

Topic Author's Reply - Apr 12, 2015 - 03:41am PT

Science could be a good strategy if up for the work. Or ask someone with a direct line to God if you crave more certainty.

That is why I asked Werner.... but Werner don't play this game. :)
In my original post I spelled out the criteria... number as percent of trad climbers. And trad climbers means lets say anyone who has trad led at least 20 pitches in their life at whatever grade.

On second thought I too think 1 percent is too high. In any case I call this group a small elite. Now back to the moonlight discussion. :)

Jaybro

Social climber

Wolf City, Wyoming

Apr 12, 2015 - 06:09am PT

It's a low percent, is the exact number that important? The tone or phrasing or something of the OP's question almost sounds skeptical of the whole concept. But rest assured they are out there.

There are a lot of people leading 12c trad. Percentage wise it's probably under 1%. But there are Lots of climbers!

Consiststantly onsighting 12c trad? The number goes down. Workered a 12c to the point of red point? People do that all the time. Being able to do .12c trad with some small number of attempts, when in form? A smaller number but growing all the time.

I think this is impossible to quantify, even estimating a number is a staggering concept, but there are people out there doing this, most of whom the world at large will never hear of.

Pee wee and Mason are two of the best, most consistent hard tradclimbers. I've had the privilege of belaying them both, and to watch them climb at the level they do is truly mind blowing.

And there is another rapidly growing tier nipping at their heels.

There are a number of people advancing the standards, but again, are the numbers that important? Or significant?

Our own Jogill was in his own world, way above the curve, except for some other possible outliers, for a long time. A lot of his problems took a very long time to be repeated. When what is exceptional gets repeated it is often perceived as a new norm. While some ( deservedly) pat themselves on the back over meeting the challenges of the past others are quietly covering in new ground in relative obscurity.

The example of the various outliers, both presses the highest standard higher, and motivates other climbers to climb harder. Just knowing that harder clims exist gives some ambitious climbers permission to succeed on what they might otherwise have thought of as impossible.

.

Trashman

Trad climber

SLC

Apr 12, 2015 - 07:37am PT

Wow, the bubble effect is real. I'd have guessed 10-15%. That said if we're talking everyone who's ever purchased a harness, less than 1% is probably right. At the crags I prefer on a given weekend I don't think 1 in 10 is unreasonable. Guess it goes to Jaybros point, less than 1% is still a lot of people these days.

Shimanilami

Trad climber

San Jose, CA

Apr 12, 2015 - 08:11am PT

If you include gym climbers and boulderers, who make up the majority of climbers nowadays, then it's more like 0.01%.

Scrubber

climber

Straight outta Squampton

Apr 12, 2015 - 08:23am PT

With no replaced gear at all: Off the top of my head I'd guess 1/10 of 1%. ( one in one thousand)
On sighting at that level, perhaps 1/10th or less of those.

This is coming from a relatively trad-centric climbing area too.

My 2 cents, YMMV

stevep

Boulder climber

Salt Lake, UT

Apr 12, 2015 - 08:32am PT

Yeah, I'm in agreement that the number is very low, well under 1% if we're talking about everyone who climbs, and talking about a lead with no preplaced gear.
I'm not even sure 1% of all climbers could do 11c trad onsight. Maybe certain friendly climbs in IC.

bvb

Social climber

flagstaff arizona

Apr 12, 2015 - 09:36am PT

Let's roll the question back to, say, 1983. Far, far, far fewer climbers, much higher percentage of 5.12 stone crushers. Back then everybody lived in the dirt and climbed 365/24/7. And no gyms to skew the data points.

Vitaliy M.

Mountain climber

San Francisco

Apr 12, 2015 - 09:54am PT

Lol. If you think 1% of climbers could "trad" lead 12c, you must not be around climbers much. :)

Trad lead, to me would mean ground up flash or onsight of the route, or an attempt. Would others agree? Working the route into submission is more of a redpointing on gear game, and is not much different than sport climbing. The only difference is figuring out where to plug in a cam, which is not too different from figuring out a clipping stance.

For sure less than 1% of trad climbers RP 12c on gear. Not sure how many can. If you want to figure out a semi accurate % first define your population. Do you include strictly those who climb trad or do you include all people who consider themselves climbers. I think flashing or on sighting 5.12 is pretty impressive and not many at all can consistently do it.

As far as the other thread...oh man, we are talking about climbing here. People can go aid that thing as much as they want and no one should tell them not to. Use your best judgement. Don't nail on the Nose though! :)

Ed Hartouni

Trad climber

Livermore, CA

Apr 12, 2015 - 11:27am PT

interesting question part of what I explored in a thread on the limits of difficulty in climbing... which turns out to have been provocative and controversial...

the OP title is a question that begs another question: what is the status of the consensus on the 5.12c rating? obviously it depends on the route... and that depends on the type of route.

Take this list of 5.12c routes in Yosemite Valley:

666 bolted boulder problem
96º in the Shade
Chingo Cabrones bolted problem at Knobby Wall - 5.12b?
Croft Arete
Follywood 87' route at the base of The Folly
Hall of Mirrors most talked about, perhaps a legitimate Valley trad climb
Hang Dog Flyer right side of Royal Arches apron, just above 10.96, legitimate Valley trad
Highlander mostly bolted route at New Diversion Cliff
Lost and Found left side of Boulderfield Gorge
Mama
Meltdown now renamed, another Knobby Wall route
Owl Roof short, wide problem
The Principle
Psychological Warfare Cascade Falls, left, high up
Punchline mostly bolted on Arch Rock
Satanic Mechanic mostly bolted right of Outer Limits
The Shining mostly bolted on Royal Arches
Switchblade
Take Da Plunge on East face of Elephant Rock
Wicked Gravity mostly bolted on top of Elephant Rock
Zipperhead 50' route on The Cookie with bolted crux

how many people that you know have lead any of these in any style?
and what is the consensus rating?

many of these are bolted routes (most?) or bolted at the crux... where do you draw the line in terms of defining the route as a "trad" route?

TWP

Trad climber

Mancos, CO & Bend, OR

Apr 12, 2015 - 01:43pm PT

Same as the percentage of:

1. All golfers versus capable of winning a PGA golf tournament;
2. All people who ever played quarterback versus good enough to start in the NFL;
3. All mountaineers versus number of people who in fact have summated an 8,000 meter peak (Everest excluded).

Yes, I think people who can trad lead insight routinely, any 12c, are nearly that good and that rare.

Likewise, the time period within which said person can maintain that level is as transient as ultra-stardom in any other sport.

What percent is that? 0.01 (one in ten thousand)

OK. Let the dissing begin.

hellroaring

Trad climber

San Francisco

Apr 12, 2015 - 02:41pm PT

What if while gripped & struggling on something far below a 5.12c you find yourself thinking: "this is probably what 5..12c would feel like if I could climb 5.12". Does that count in a half-ass, cheaters kind of way?

stevep

Boulder climber

Salt Lake, UT

Apr 12, 2015 - 02:43pm PT

Or go a grade down from that to something well-known. Crimson Cringe. That one is pretty straightforward as far as gear goes, so I'd bet relatively easier for a strong sport climber with good endurance.

But how often does that even get done?

brett

climber

oregon

Apr 12, 2015 - 05:26pm PT

0% of me can lead 12c

Evel

Trad climber

Nedsterdam CO

Apr 12, 2015 - 05:37pm PT

I'll throw another stick on the fire.

How about the idea that climbing any grade at one certain area doesn't really fill the bill, so to speak. Years ago one of my mentors told me that to think of yourself as 'solid in the grade' meant you could go anywhere, on any type of stone and climb that grade.

and I like what bvb said.

healyje

Trad climber

Portland, Oregon

Apr 12, 2015 - 05:44pm PT

Almost any climber in decent shape can locate a climb beyond their limit, work the hell out of it, then bag it ground up clean, eventually...

Yeah, I love watching folks sport climb on gear...

Evel

Trad climber

Nedsterdam CO

Apr 12, 2015 - 05:48pm PT

And I agree with you, Locker. I've put up sport routes that were at the very least top-roped before they were lead. Totally different game. (now I've done it...)
"projecting" or "working" a route just isn't the same as ground-up, onsight. (now I've really done it...)

the albatross

Gym climber

Flagstaff

Apr 12, 2015 - 05:49pm PT

I think Brian called this pitch "solid 5.12" whatever that means.

bvb

Social climber

flagstaff arizona

Apr 12, 2015 - 06:23pm PT

I flashed The Flying Dutchman at Josh. Am I in the special peacock-strutting club now? Can somebody show me the secret handshake?

richross

Trad climber

Apr 12, 2015 - 06:24pm PT

Jim D sends Super Crack 5.12+ early 90's.

Evel

Trad climber

Nedsterdam CO

Apr 12, 2015 - 06:34pm PT

I'm pretty sure "solid 5.12" for Brian checks in at 5.13b/c

Rudder

Trad climber

Costa Mesa, CA

Apr 12, 2015 - 06:40pm PT

My thought is the more interesting question is how many can onsight 12c trad.

Or, who can onsite 5.anything trad? I see some routes at Josh and other places being downgraded a letter grade or two from time to time. I know some of those routes and they're sandbagged if anything. I think it's because we used to only want the onsight. What's what we called "climbing." lol Now, there is sport climbing, bouldering, trad climbing, red pointing, pink pointing, onsighting, onsight flash with no beta, et al. Now people "work" a route and then "wire" a route... then downgrade it a letter grade. It ain't that new lower letter grade for a true onsight. Rant over. haha

ruppell

climber

Apr 12, 2015 - 06:51pm PT

I've lead a few 12's on gear. Am I a 5.12 climber? Hell no. Did I get up them? Yes. Did I do it in what I consider good style? No. I fell. For me good style is onsight. Anything less is a failure in my book. Will I ever onsight that grade? Maybe. Bet your arse I'll keep trying. Most people that climb that grade on gear don't onsight it. But one day maybe I'll get lucky.

It goes back to what was said upthread. I'm a 5.10 climber. Why? Because I know I can go anywhere in the world and onsight that grade 99.9% of the time. Up it to hard 5.11 and my onsight drops to about 80%. When I can get that ratio to 99% I'll happily call myself a 5.11 climber.

So what percentage of climbers can trad lead 5.12? More than you think.

Travis Haussener

Trad climber

Salt Lake City

Apr 12, 2015 - 08:36pm PT

I agree and disagree, the logic ifor what makes a good climber is great i.e. Yeah, being able to onsight any 10 in the world is a pretty place to sit as a trad climber, I aspire to that. However I think the nature of the sport is in the training, saying if it's not an onsight it doesn't count is like saying the only way to win a marathon, 5k, 10k, is to never run, look, or think about the course that's impratical in my opinion.

As far as the question, in my limited climbing career (4 years) and dozens of trips to Indian Creek, and 100's of days up little and big cottonwood canyon I've seen zero people ever get a real 12. As an example, there are several real ones right where the trail hits scarface butress and in all my days there, even extremely busy ones ( 20-30 people present) I've never seen anyone even think about these. The same goes for bcc and LCC.

So I think 1% is a pretty good guess, but after reading more comments maybe we're talking .1%.

Edit: as a loose loose comparison read the description behind this one http://mountainproject.com/v/father-time/109275454

crøtch

climber

Apr 12, 2015 - 09:00pm PT

What are some classic .12c gear climbs in your area?

Of the thousands who climb at Squamish every year, how many send Flight of the Challenger?

For the similar hordes in Joshua Tree, what about Equinox? How often is that thing sent clean?

Here's a Mountainproject list of quality .12c climbs.

My guess would be closer to 1 in 10,000 than 1 in 1,000.

ruppell

climber

Apr 12, 2015 - 09:56pm PT

Travis,

I never said not getting the OS didn't count. Failure to onsight counts because it is training. You learn from every climb you make mistakes on. Do you know how many 10's I had to fall on before I learned all the tricks not to? A lot. Trying as hard as you can and failing is better than never trying at all. I can't tell you how many people I've climbed with that wouldn't get out of their comfort zone. You know what? They still have the same comfort zone. They haven't gotten any better because they don't try harder climbs. So, try things way above your head and keep after it. Eventually 5.10 won't seem so bad.

crøtch

climber

Apr 12, 2015 - 11:20pm PT

Under the assumption that Flight of the Challenger is the premier Squamish .12c single pitch crack...

Mountainproject Tick Count (route, grade, # of MP ticks)

Exasperator, 10c, 208
Crime of the Century, 11c, 110
Flight of the Challenger, 12c, 2

So Flight sees maybe 1% of the traffic that Exasperator does. And Exasperator is not a beginner's climb.

JLP

Social climber

The internet

Apr 13, 2015 - 08:37am PT

^^^^ that's a helluva list of quality 5.12c trad climbs

MP.com has a nice feature now where you can eliminate results with fewer than some number of votes. Once you do that to mid 12 and up trad routes, the list gets pretty small.

Scappy V-hard one move wonders and headpoints nobody will ever even attempt as an OS are a dime a dozen - and oh so awesome to that 1 dork who put in the hours and posted it to MP.com.

I would say the highest concentration of 12 and up trad routes are at the Creek, if you want to call what happens there "trad". They're pretty rare birds just about everywhere else - good ones at least.

Saying you lead 12+ trad onsight pretty much means you put down 13-13+ quickly on sport, this is what I've seen. If I don't quickly come to that in talking to someone who tells me they "lead 12c trad", I pretty much assume they're full of sh#t. "Projecting" 12c "trad" with every placement figured out and rehearsed - same as hanging draws on sport - dime a dozen.

Ed Hartouni

Trad climber

Livermore, CA

Apr 13, 2015 - 08:49am PT

it would be an interesting thread: JLP's guide to the ratings...

JLP has stated for years now a number of observations regarding the veracity of the grades climbers claim based on a number of those observations. I'm sorta seriously interested in this... (and not trying to bust JLP's chops) as there seems to be a lot of thinking behind the statements like:

"...Saying you lead 12+ trad onsight pretty much means you put down 13-13+ quickly on sport, this is what I've seen. If I don't quickly come to that in talking to someone who tells me they "lead 12c trad", I pretty much assume they're full of sh#t..."

I added the emphasis. Tapping into the implied experience might be very interesting indeed.

G_Gnome

Trad climber

Cali

Apr 13, 2015 - 09:16am PT

I would agree that it is damn few, way less than 1%. But there are some and most are not known people because they climb and don't post and don't show up in the mags. Just regular people who train really hard and climb all the time.

Jaybro

Social climber

Wolf City, Wyoming

Apr 13, 2015 - 09:18am PT

That is, if you bother with 5.13 sportclimbs in the first place....

WBraun

climber

Apr 13, 2015 - 09:19am PT

But there are some and most are not known people because they climb and don't post and don't show up in the mags.
Just regular people who train really hard and climb all the time.

Yep ... definitely.

There's quite a few of these around and is more like the norm ....

stevep

Boulder climber

Salt Lake, UT

Apr 13, 2015 - 09:33am PT

Well, I'd agree that there's a bunch of those unknowns around. But most of those are probably boulderers and sport climbers. I still think the % of solid .12c trad climbers is real small.

There's more of them in the Valley, or perhaps when you look at British gritstone climbers. Outside of those groups though...very few.

rbord

Boulder climber

atlanta

Apr 13, 2015 - 05:23pm PT

Oh sorry, by trad climbing you meant plugging cams into a splitter crack. I thought that was called sport climbing, and traditional climbing was the stuff I learned before cams. Climber probably doesn't include my kids in the youth climbing league. Yea in that case probably more like 10-20%. Humans .. :-)

thebravecowboy

climber

the Midcontinent Rift

Apr 13, 2015 - 08:06pm PT

I heard that most bears can onsight .12c on RPs.

It's the claws. And the boldness. You know, ursa and all.

rockermike

Trad climber

Berkeley

Topic Author's Reply - Apr 14, 2015 - 12:43am PT

But Tami... one question. Did you round off your calculation or did it just happen to fall on exactly 1.6393 percent? Inquiring minds want to know.

yanqui

climber

Balcarce, Argentina

Apr 14, 2015 - 06:09am PT

Huumpherer! Since the calculations show that the associated p-value is less than the corresponding significance level one can conclude, quod erat demonstrandum, that the observed effect has not occurred due to sampling error and therefore, henceforth and hither-to-after the observed effect reflects the characteristics of said population. Logic thus dictates the data presented by the researcher known as "Tami", under said conditions, obtains statistical significance and therefore 1.6393 percent is the correct answer.

However
There is a flaw.

The study in question fails to consider the necessary and sufficient conditions for the operational definition of the technical sense of the given term "onsight". This implies the aforementioned results of "Tami" are brought into doubt when said "trad lead climber" has not met the given terms and conditions implicit by the concept in question. Perhaps the subject, id est "trad lead climber", had previous cognition of the considered intentional "climbing route" with appropriate 12c grade. There exists the possibilty that the given belayer whispered secret location of key hidden side-pull in crux sequence to the subject in question, thus violating all terms and conditions agreed to in said definition. Do there exist tick marks or chalk on the holds? Did the subject climb in a nearby zone and peek over at said intentional "climbing route", while rapelling to the base? Did they see a film about said route or hear someone discuss it? Don't we really care a lot about how the percentages change when all these important factors are brought into play? In fact, it is this researcher's opinion that there is no escaping the Heisenberg uncertainty principle of quantun climbing, which states that the simple fact that the given subject observes that said route falls into the category of appropriate 12c grade, using small metal wedges or "cams" (and understands the definition therein), in turn, effects the outcome of said experiment.

PS: on a less sarcastic note, a data of absolutely no statistical significance is that, of the 10 or so long term, regular climbing partners I've had the pleasure of climbing with, only one has ever managed to send 5.12 "trad" on their first try. Personally, I've never come close to doing that.

guyman

Social climber

Moorpark, CA.

Apr 14, 2015 - 08:54am PT

PS: on a less sarcastic note, a data of absolutely no statistical significance is that, of the 10 or so long term, regular climbing partners I've had the pleasure of climbing with, only one has ever managed to send 5.12 "trad" on their first try. Personally, I've never come close to doing that.

I have similar experiences, only Kris Solem, Eric Erikson and Kevin Thaw have done hard 12 with me holding the cord on the first try and I have held the cord for many. Lets face it, to climb at that level puts one into a pretty exclusive club.

Many of these people get concentrated at the venues where this is possible...

so if I had to put a percentage on it, without any numbers to back up my claim... id say .01% because 90% of the "climbers" I see now days "TAKE" at the first bit of difficulty on mear 5.10 and 9.9% "TAKE" on 5.11....

Ed Hartouni

Trad climber

Livermore, CA

Apr 14, 2015 - 09:29am PT

hey guyman... you have the beginnings of a proper estimate...

estimate the number of climbers you've held the rope for, and then divide that into the three who had done the 5.12 onsight...

no need to make up numbers.

We should all do that, actually, I'm guessing that I've climbed with 50 to 100 climbers, and that perhaps 3 have onsighted 5.12 in their lifetimes (maybe one while I was holding the cord, though the definition of 5.12c is probably questionable).

So, for me, I'd estimate 2-5% of my lifetime climbing partners.

I don't think that is too high.

On the other hand, it would seem that 5.12 is at the mean of climbing difficulty, when viewed from the first ascent (free) information available, which also sets the maximum climbing level.

http://www.supertopo.com/climbing/thread.php?topic_id=65106

The basic idea of the limit is the number of people in the population that are able to train intensely enough to achieve the limits. At some point, training results in injuries, and the injuries prevent furthering the limits.

The limit is in training intensity, and recovery from that training. While better training methods would help (I believe tremendously, as Horst proposes) at some point even the most exceptional athletes are limited, it is the limitation of our bodies.

Stephen Gould wrote about this... with respect to baseball... but perhaps I have generalized and embellished his contribution with my own thoughts over the years.

Alpamayo

Trad climber

Davis, CA

Apr 14, 2015 - 09:49am PT

Perception and sampling bias is a funny thing. If you ask me the answer to the question, I'd say zero. But then again I don't climb anywhere near that hard and don't go looking for 5.12 trad routes. Ask someone who climbs that hard and hangs out with others that climb that hard and you'll likely get a different answer.

shipoopoi

Big Wall climber

oakland

Apr 14, 2015 - 09:58am PT

it's gotta be less than one percent. bitd(90's) i on sight flashed three 512c trad routes, i never onsighted a 12d trad, 12c was my limit

golden beaver (right or left?) at mt lemmon
animal magnetism at the gunks
supercrack at the gunks

at the time i was competing on the national and world cup circuit, which logiically would have put me near the upper echelons of the sport, and these ascents were notable at the time

now there are more people flashing 12c trad, but there are so many climbers now, the percentage is probably the same.

ss

rbord

Boulder climber

atlanta

Apr 14, 2015 - 10:20am PT

I don't think that we guess, we just aren't always aware of the information that we're using in our computations. When we lock our doors driving through the ghetto, we're responding to some Information, even if we're not consciously aware of what that information is.

most are not known people because they climb and don't post

The humble 5.12c trad leader is not as apt to spray about their accomplishments as the 5.7 leader and their awesome redpoint ascent of after six. Go back and factor that into your calculations. No wonder we lock our doors. :-)