Discussion Topic |
|
This thread has been locked |
| Messages 1 - 81 of total 81 in this topic |
High Fructose Corn Spirit
Gym climber
Full Silos of Iowa
|
|
|
Topic Author's Original Post - Jan 28, 2011 - 09:17pm PT
|
On 4 january 2011, the national debt clock hit the unbelievable, indigestible, unsustainable $14 TRILLION mark.
And here's a snapshot just today, 28 jan 2011, already approaching $14.1 trillion.
That means $100 billion more in about three weeks. Extrapolating, I have figured it will hit $15 trillion on 2 nov 2011.
Trillions and trillions of dollars of debt. That will be a challenging ceiling indeed for Americans of the future to have to pull through. But then again, maybe Uncle Sam will print more money when things get really rough and tumble. Anyways, it will be fascinating to watch and of course as always time will tell.
I'll repost every couple of months to see if my "extrapolation" is tracking. And if it isn't, hopefully it won't be for the best.
Where there are climbers and hills, there is hope.
|
|
Chaz
Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
|
|
|
Jan 28, 2011 - 09:22pm PT
|
It's all George Bush's fault.
We didn't even have a National Debt until Bush stole the election and squandered all of Bill Clinton's Surplus.
And now, Obama has to make the tough decisions, and run the debt up way higher than Bush ever imagined, in order to make up for the mess Bush made.
|
|
High Fructose Corn Spirit
Gym climber
Full Silos of Iowa
|
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Jan 28, 2011 - 09:28pm PT
|
Since so many climbers here are sociopolitically conscious, I was surprised to discover there wasn't a national debt clock thread already in the archives - or even just a national debt thread - I mean, given its importance in our lives present and future.
.....
Chaz, yeah the good ol days of Bill Clinton. I miss em.
|
|
Jingy
climber
Somewhere out there
|
|
|
Jan 28, 2011 - 09:29pm PT
|
more like repubkican's fault ^^^
because climbers have nothing to do with the dept of this nation.... We are the outsiders of the outsiders.... mostly outside....
plus, we don't control the debt.
|
|
High Fructose Corn Spirit
Gym climber
Full Silos of Iowa
|
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Feb 13, 2011 - 12:05am PT
|
It's only been two weeks since the last post, already at 14.14... so it is ahead of my estimation for "hitting" 15 trillion in august.
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
.....
P.S.
Chaz, as you know, there's a difference between "national debt" and "national deficit." When Clinton left office the U.S. had a national debt. It was about 5.7 trillion. 8 years earlier it was 4.1 trillion. But he did leave office under a budget surplus.
|
|
Captain...or Skully
climber
The Seas of Stone.
|
|
|
Feb 13, 2011 - 12:07am PT
|
Dude, we're gonna die.
|
|
High Fructose Corn Spirit
Gym climber
Full Silos of Iowa
|
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Feb 13, 2011 - 12:15am PT
|
I hear ya, Cap'n.
Add to the national debt clock page another "favorite" internet barometer of the times:
http://co2now.org/
... and it's hard sometimes to be optimistic...
Then again, I have discovered over the years that thinking ecologically... i.e., thinking and living in ecological terms... helps.
|
|
Chief
climber
The NW edge of The Hudson Bay
|
|
|
Feb 13, 2011 - 02:41am PT
|
Debt is an unavoidable function of having a Federal Reserve or Central Bank.
Our governments caved in to central banks not long after Andrew Jackson's term and agreed to the monetary mechanics that ensure that every dollar printed carries debt.
Most of what we call money doesn't actually exist except in binary code and on balance sheets. Banks only require a tenth of the amount of money they circulate in loans in actual reserve. Ironically, every one of the imaginary dollars that are "promised" in exchange for Federal Bonds carry the burden of real compounding debt.
Quantitative easing? Put more imaginary dollars into circulation for real debt. America is bankrupt and Canada is tagging right along behind.
If you think this last round of economic hardship was tough, forget about it, things are just starting to get interesting.
Don't blame Bush, Clinton, Trudeau or Mulroney, hell we all voted for them.
Pay closer attention to JP Morgan and Canada's Municipal Finance Authority if you care to know what's really going on.
|
|
Mighty Hiker
climber
Vancouver, B.C.
|
|
|
Feb 13, 2011 - 02:58am PT
|
We long had a debt clock in downtown Vancouver, in a prominent location. As 'conservative' federal governments ran up big deficits and debts, it got more and more alarming. Finally we had a liberal (and Liberal) government, which from 1993 - 1997 balanced the budget, and from then on ran surpluses, so actually paying down the debt a bit. They then dismantled the clock - although those who put it up were probably somewhat embarrassed.
That is, until the conservatives (their brand name regularly changes) got back into power in 2006, and rediscovered the value of Keynesian policies in late 2008. Although Canada had had more conservative financial regulation and policy right from the start, which helped. Mostly due to Liberal governments.
|
|
John Moosie
climber
Beautiful California
|
|
|
Feb 13, 2011 - 03:20am PT
|
Thanks Chief and Mighty Hiker.
Why is it that Canadians seem to understand the problem better then Americans. I wish folks would understand the subtleties that you make, such as the fact that todays conservative isn't really conservative. Obama inherited a mess.
EDit: Fair enough HFCS. I will remove the insults. Maybe I have you confused with someone else. I do find it interesting that the conservatives are only just now getting to be concerned with deficits. Wasn't Cheney the one who said deficits don't matter? Not sure if that is exactly his quote.
America will have to pay more taxes. Plus, If she wants to compete globally, then she will have to scale back her military, because cutting funding for education will hurt us globally.
|
|
High Fructose Corn Spirit
Gym climber
Full Silos of Iowa
|
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Feb 13, 2011 - 10:16am PT
|
Yeah, that fractional reserve and fiat currency are quite the phenomena of our times. I still have a hard time wrapping my head around them esp in regard to their role in all this. Some say it has all evolved now into a giant pyramid or ponzi scheme that is near the end.
For sure, it won't be boring to see how it all plays out.
|
|
couchmaster
climber
pdx
|
|
|
Feb 13, 2011 - 10:19am PT
|
Clinton balanced the budget.
Seems like with a few exceptions as an American your choice is to vote for a Tax and Spend lib Democrat, or a borrow and spend conservative Republican. Obama represents a new breed: a Borrow and spend Democrat, but at some point, your taxes will go up to pay for all this overseas military empire building and big government.
Smaller government is the answer.
|
|
Chaz
Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
|
|
|
Feb 13, 2011 - 11:24am PT
|
You're right.
What do the tax-and-spend guys have in common with the borrow-and-spend guys?
A: Spending.
There's your problem, right there.
|
|
franky
Trad climber
Ford Pickup Truck, North America
|
|
|
Feb 13, 2011 - 12:06pm PT
|
why should i care?
|
|
Chaz
Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
|
|
|
Feb 13, 2011 - 12:37pm PT
|
"When the Government cuts national spending, those cuts are the jobs that keep this economy running"
If that were true, there should be more jobs now than ever before, seeing as Government spending has never been higher.
|
|
Mighty Hiker
climber
Vancouver, B.C.
|
|
|
Feb 13, 2011 - 01:20pm PT
|
FatTrad has a lively imagination, to put it politely. Canada's current wannabe neo-con 'conservative' government, with prime minister Harper, has been in a minority for five years. They would love to have a majority, as it would give them free rein to implement some of their extremist nonsense. (Vandalizing our national census. Tougher sentences and more prisons, in a time of steadily falling crime rates. The usual idiotological foolishness.) The public and the polls are having nothing of it. So every six months or year one party or other starts to talk big about forcing an election - except that it wouldn't resolve anything. No news there at all. The last election was in autumn 2008, the maximum term is five years, typically minority governments last 2 - 3 years, we'll probably have an election sometime in 2011, Harper will continue to have a minority government, and the disunited opposition will continue to be less effective than it could be.
|
|
go-B
climber
1 Corinthians 6:19-20
|
|
|
Feb 13, 2011 - 02:46pm PT
|
The bum on the corner...
"Can you give me $40,000.00, so I can pay off my part of the national debt!"
|
|
MTucker
Ice climber
Arizona
|
|
|
Feb 13, 2011 - 05:48pm PT
|
I hear a lot of republicans and Tea Party people saying
1. Reduce government spending
2. Reduce tax rates
3. Reduce government regulation
This is Reaganomics or "Voodoo Economics"
Voodoo economics is a derogatory term used to describe the economic process known as supply-side economics.
Unfortunately, in practice, the theory had mixed results.
Growth is not result of tax cuts but rather a natural recovery from the tremendous recession of the previous decade.
The unintended consequence of voodoo economics was a large increase in the national debt, and the loss of what many consider to be vital social programs as government-funded programs had to be cut in response to the tax cuts.
|
|
hooblie
climber
from where the anecdotes roam
|
|
|
Feb 13, 2011 - 07:22pm PT
|
If the dollar loses its status as fiat, then you'll be screwed. It carries the dollar beyond its face value. That was one of the big reasons behind the Iraq war. Saddam Hussein declared he'd go over to selling in Euros instead, it being more stable than the dollar, and the other Arab nations discussed it too. It was about oil of course, but not oil as in having it delivered.
important issues lolli. and for clarification, fiat currency is one which has value because the country issuing it declares it to be so, as opposed to one which is backed by gold, which enjoys a valued status by consensus. the risk you are speaking of , i think, is that of losing our status as reserve currency, which is what central banks around the world chose to hold in greater proportion than others as a hedge against volatility.
to date, during times of uncertainty or "flight to safety" the dollar has typically strengthened along with gold as an alternative currency, lacking a better port in a storm.
recently the financial media has chosen to focus on sovereign debt issues in europe, taking some heat off the US dollar and it's problems though it is also richly deserving of concern. when a commodity such as oil is denominated in US dollars, it rides the same roller coaster and so indeed the idea of an alternative bourse denominated in euros has been floated, most vociferously by iran and others who don't have our best interest at heart.
there is tremendous advantage to be gained by repaying our debt in deflated dollars, and while talking up a strong dollar, the fed has been making moves which would undermine it's value by way of these rounds of quantitative easing, and indeed many of the countries that would like to boost their export economy by selling cheap goods abroad can also be seen as making efforts to exert downward pressure on the value of their respective currencies.
china has been getting attention lately by our representative cranks in congress and administrative torch bearers for not letting the range that the yuan trades in appreciate relative the US dollar at a fast enough rate. ironically they are motivated to see our currency maintain its strength because they hold so much of our debt. the appreciation of the yuan has been responsible for the majority of the closing of the gap so far, in other words the strategy of paying back in cheaper dollars has been thwarted, possibly by good chinese gamesmanship.
the big shoe will fall when our debt is no longer an attractive prospect.
meanwhile watch for incremental progress on the part of chinese finance ministers in preparing the yuan for future status as a replacement reserve currency. it's a long ways off, but steps such as loosening policy to allow yuan convertability and true free floating exchange rates in the market are steps in that direction.
meanwhile, MAJOR buys in the gold and silver markets on the part of the chinese are thought by some to put a floor under those prices, and set up the chinese nicely for a future play to place the yuan (renmembi) in the cat bird seat as a reserve currency backed by real gold and silver, as opposed to our fiat currency backed mostly by faith
|
|
High Fructose Corn Spirit
Gym climber
Full Silos of Iowa
|
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Feb 13, 2011 - 07:51pm PT
|
re: quantitative easing
Step 1: The central bank credits its own bank account with money it creates electronically.
Step 2: The central bank buys government bonds (including long-term government bonds) or other financial assets, from commercial banks or other financial institutions, with the newly created money.
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_easing
.....
Hooblie,
Tfpu. You sound informed on these issues, what do you do? just curious.
Gedankenexperiment QT So if we all woke up tomorrow to learn the Central Bank created $10T "electronically," bought government bonds, and then learned the U.S. Government paid off all foreign debt, etc. and then some - what would be the WORST fallout from that? Would it be so bad? I mean, I'm sure it would shock the system some, the value of the dollar would drop, perhaps even quite a bit, but wouldn't that in the end put the country on more solid ground - at least recognizably so - than where it is at now - in this seeming morass of uncertainty? Just wondering your thoughts...
|
|
Brokedownclimber
Trad climber
Douglas, WY
|
|
|
Feb 13, 2011 - 09:25pm PT
|
Wow!
So what we should all hope for is a totally valueless dollar---then there is no national debt? Hah!
My calculated value for the dollar extrapolated back to 1912, before the Federal Reserve System, is a current USD has $0.03 in relative purchasing power to the 1912 USD. The Fed was authorized in 1913, along with the Federal Income Tax. Some coincidence, eh?
The last year we were on a Gold Standard was 1932. In 1933 FDR confiscated all the privately held gold coins and gold certificates. Shortly thereafter, the treasury revalued gold from $20/troy ounce to $35/troy ounce. In other words, POOF! The U.S. Treasury suddenly had a 75% increase in "backing" for the money supply. Simply billions created out of thin air. Then the Democrats started spending the thin air...and the rest is history.
The last President under whom the national debt was ZERO was Martin van Buren, who was Andrew Jackson's V.P.
|
|
High Fructose Corn Spirit
Gym climber
Full Silos of Iowa
|
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Feb 14, 2011 - 11:54am PT
|
So what we should all hope for is a totally valueless dollar---then there is no national debt? Hah!
I hear you, it was just a thought experiment (gedankenexperiment), trying to weigh $10 trillion against the background of the total wealth of the country, wondering just how huge the effects would be.
Food for thought: the lesser of two evils...
EDIT
Certainly the value of the dollar would drop, certainly some heads would roll. But that's going to happen eventually sooner or later anyway.
Fattrad's link:
The U.S. Treasury Department says what it pays to service the national debt is poised to triple amid record budget deficits.
Net interest expense will triple to an all-time high of $554 billion in 2015 from $185 billion in 2010, according to the Obama administration’s adjusted 2011 budget.
“It’s a slow train wreck coming and we all know it’s going to happen,” said Bret Barker...
|
|
GDavis
Social climber
SOL CAL
|
|
|
Feb 14, 2011 - 12:11pm PT
|
HOW WILL THIS AFFECT THE MOUNTAINZ
|
|
dirtbag
climber
|
|
|
Feb 14, 2011 - 12:35pm PT
|
Recessions usually drive up the deficits, and this recession has been a doozy.
Work on unemployment, and tax rolls will go up, entitlement spending will go down, and the deficit won't be as bad.
But some politicians would rather focus on the debt instead.
|
|
John Moosie
climber
Beautiful California
|
|
|
Feb 14, 2011 - 02:19pm PT
|
So if you were given a million dollars a day, and not worrying about spending it or interest or anything like that, how many years would it take you to accumulate 14 trillion dollars?
There are a million millions in a trillion. Thus given one million dollars a day, it would take you 14 million days to accumulate 14 trillion dollars. If you didn't spend anything and made no interest.
14 million days = 38,356.1644 years.
|
|
franky
Trad climber
Ford Pickup Truck, North America
|
|
|
Feb 14, 2011 - 04:45pm PT
|
you guys all talk about this with the assumption that it is an awful thing, yet none of you understand the consequences of national debt, and what it really means.
you make the silly assumption that the US debt is similar to your own, which isn't necessarily the case.
Anyways, I ask again, why should i care? Given my student loan debt, and the fact that I own very little assets, a decent amount of inflation isn't that bad for me!
|
|
August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
|
|
|
Feb 14, 2011 - 04:54pm PT
|
http://www.slate.com/id/1937/
So someone at my office sent me the above link describing a babby sitting co-op that was issuing its own money (script) for, you guessed it, baby sitting. It is an interesting real world example of the problems you can have when you don't have enough money in circulation (countries that stayed on the gold standard during the great depression generally did worse) and why a little bit of inflation can be a good thing.
I thought it was an interesting read.
Here is a snip:
Well, it turned out that there was a small technical problem. Think about the coupon holdings of a typical couple. During periods when it had few occasions to go out, a couple would probably try to build up a reserve--then run that reserve down when the occasions arose. There would be an averaging out of these demands. One couple would be going out when another was staying at home. But since many couples would be holding reserves of coupons at any given time, the co-op needed to have a fairly large amount of scrip in circulation.
Now what happened in the Sweeneys' co-op was that, for complicated reasons involving the collection and use of dues (paid in scrip), the number of coupons in circulation became quite low. As a result, most couples were anxious to add to their reserves by baby-sitting, reluctant to run them down by going out. But one couple's decision to go out was another's chance to baby-sit; so it became difficult to earn coupons. Knowing this, couples became even more reluctant to use their reserves except on special occasions, reducing baby-sitting opportunities still further.
In short, the co-op had fallen into a recession.
|
|
froodish
Social climber
Portland, Oregon
|
|
|
Feb 14, 2011 - 05:07pm PT
|
@August,
Clearly, the problem was that their currency wasn't backed by a bunch of ingots in a vault. Instead of issuing more babysitting coupons, they should have returned to the gold standard. ;-)
|
|
Brokedownclimber
Trad climber
Douglas, WY
|
|
|
Feb 14, 2011 - 05:18pm PT
|
Gotta' give Crowly credit on this one...
We should nationalize the Federal Reserve...
Fine. How?
The so-called "Federal" Reserve is an International banking Cartel, comprised of some of the world's largest banking organizations. Rothschild, Warburg, Lazard Freres. How our money became controlled by these thieves is a story unto itself...
Eustace Mullins self-published a book titled: "Secrets of the Federal Reserve." I defy anyone to find a copy in any bookstore. Mr. Mullins was a disciple of reknowned poet, Ezra Pound in the 1940's, and was a distinguished non-PC researcher on many topics. But his most famous quote regarding the Federal Reserve System:
It's NOT "Federal," there are NO reserves, and as a system it's a criminal conspiricy.
At least Crowley "gets" the fact that it is a PRIVATE, INTERNATIONAL BANKING MONOPOLY.
|
|
TGT
Social climber
So Cal
|
|
|
Feb 14, 2011 - 06:36pm PT
|
Economy is not an egotistical thing, nor is it a stand alone thing. It's intertwined, both locally and globally
And that is why Sweden is the second largest exporter of armaments per capita globally.
They make some damn fine ones too.
|
|
Chaz
Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
|
|
|
Feb 14, 2011 - 07:08pm PT
|
Why do you want to raise taxes on yourself, Dr F?
|
|
Chaz
Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
|
|
|
Feb 14, 2011 - 07:22pm PT
|
At least we've got the "non-profit" part covered.
|
|
Mighty Hiker
climber
Vancouver, B.C.
|
|
|
Feb 14, 2011 - 07:23pm PT
|
Perhaps because Dr. F is mature enough to take a tax for his country, and sometimes put the good of the country ahead of his own self interest.
Or, as Oliver Wendell Holmes more or less put it, taxes buy civilization.
Look up what total taxes in the US actually are, going back a century. Including local and state governments.
|
|
Brokedownclimber
Trad climber
Douglas, WY
|
|
|
Feb 14, 2011 - 08:15pm PT
|
I'm already paying my share of taxes. And that's as close to zero as my CPA can make them. I paid out my wazoo before I retired, and prolly bought a smart bomb a year. Like near a quarter mil a year.
Now that the dollar has declined in purchasing power even further I may have to go back to work.
|
|
Knave
Trad climber
|
|
|
Feb 14, 2011 - 08:20pm PT
|
I have 18 climbing ropes, 5 pairs of climbing shoes and a spool of webbing vacuum packed in the basement. Should last me!
|
|
Chief
climber
The NW edge of The Hudson Bay
|
|
|
Feb 15, 2011 - 01:19am PT
|
Just wondering to what degree the US economic woes can be linked to defense spending and Canada's to tax breaks and subsidies for resource extraction, oil and gas specifically?
Not making any claims, just wondering.
|
|
bmacd
Social climber
100% Canadian
|
|
|
Feb 15, 2011 - 04:27am PT
|
Every moment of deepest despair in 2008-09 saw the USD rise, not fall. One advantage of the USD is that there are enough of them to meet demand when the crisis warrants it. The faith in the USD is warrantied because its backed by democratic/republic with a very strong military. Unless China can match those attributes and float the yuan they have not a hope in hell of anyone believing they offer an alternative reserve currency.
Fiat currencies work well when managed responsibly and I would not want to live in a society that doesn't have one. Nor would I want elected governments to be in charge of money creation, so we are left with independent central banks and the problems they present, which in my opinion are more than countered by the advantages an independent monetary authority provides.
As hoillopoli states gradual long term devaluation of the USD relative to other currencies is the unwritten game plan which is why every evil hedge fund took major positions in gold two years ago.
Everyone in the world has a stake in the viability of the faith based USD. That faith is inspired by the political, military, industrial, complex.
like it or not ....
|
|
High Fructose Corn Spirit
Gym climber
Full Silos of Iowa
|
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Feb 15, 2011 - 10:46am PT
|
"...gradual long term devaluation of the USD relative to other currencies is the unwritten game plan..."
Now this seems esp relevant, somebody in the know care to elaborate...
|
|
bmacd
Social climber
100% Canadian
|
|
|
Feb 15, 2011 - 12:23pm PT
|
It's tragedy if those great machines made by CAT are held together by Chinese bolts of dubious quality. A lower relative dollar will bring back manufacturing to the USA, create jobs, increase exports. It doesn't take ESP to see that the mechanics of quantitative easing is part psychological financial warfare. My step-father went to the Davos conference one year and ran a large gold mining company for a long time. We used to talk a lot about these things.
|
|
High Fructose Corn Spirit
Gym climber
Full Silos of Iowa
|
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Feb 15, 2011 - 12:38pm PT
|
So bmacd,
Would it be the lesser of two evils to "electronically" create $2 trillion every year for the next 10 years?
Sub rosa, even. In other words, quietly, on the DL...
|
|
High Fructose Corn Spirit
Gym climber
Full Silos of Iowa
|
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Apr 10, 2011 - 10:13pm PT
|
Here's a stunner,
"If the markets believe we are not going to pay our debts, it could be a formula for recession or worse. So this is playing with fire."
Senator Chuck Schumer, today
What ever we do, let's not spook the markets, people.
This of course includes no discussion whatsoever on peak oil or the fact that the world's now on the descent side of it.
.....
So get this,
just watched part of the film, The International (2009) today starring Clive Owen. In it there's this line: So what do you do if after careful analysis you conclude there's no way out? Answer: You dig deeper in. Haha!!
No worries about the debt going above 14.3T, however, because that's the "debt ceiling." :)
.....
Congress is currently considering whether and how much to extend the debt ceiling again.
Even when the debt ceiling is reached, the U.S. Treasury has several mechanisms to temporarily acquire a limited amount of funding to buy some time and not default. This was used in 2004, when the debt ceiling was reached on October 14, 2004 and actions were taken by the administration to stay below the debt ceiling. The ceiling was raised on November 16, 2004 by $800 billion to a total of $8,184 billion.
The most recent increase in the U.S. debt ceiling to $14.294 trillion (by H.J.Res. 45) was signed into law on February 12, 2010.
|
|
go-B
climber
Sozo
|
|
|
Apr 10, 2011 - 10:50pm PT
|
Looking at the debt clock is like weighing yourself everyday, way too scary don't do it!
|
|
coastal_climber
Trad climber
British Columbia
|
|
|
Apr 10, 2011 - 11:31pm PT
|
Canada = win!
|
|
CrackAddict
Trad climber
Joshua Tree
|
|
|
Apr 11, 2011 - 07:27pm PT
|
This should be a wake up call to anyone who thinks we can keep chalking up 1.5 Trillion dollar deficits:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/PIMCO-goes-short-US-rb-3790514655.html?x=0
Right now our debt is mostly short dated treasuries (averaging about 4 years). Like buyers who wanted to purchase ever more expensive homes, our government has essentially taken out "teaser loans" to finance our debt because of the lower rates. But short term rates can rise very quickly - and when companies like Pimco start shorting our Treasuries, get ready for problems. We are already paying about 420 Billion a year in interest on our debt, but that is at RECORD low rates. If those rates doubled (highly possible) we will be paying 840 Billion a year in interest, well over half of our current deficit.
|
|
High Fructose Corn Spirit
Gym climber
Full Silos of Iowa
|
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Apr 11, 2011 - 08:14pm PT
|
Hey, I've had my panties in bunches over all this fiscal bruhaha for quite awhile now. But then this morning I heard from this guy:
He said something amazing. Something quite frankly I hadn't thought through enough. He said this country's rich. He said this country is rich in assets way beyond 15 trillion, even way beyond 15O trillion. He also said something else really important: this country chooses to carry so much debt because it's cheap to do so. He said that if rates go up, the country will just pay off its debt. By selling any number of assets it's sittin on.
So after thinking about that some, I felt better. Afterall this is a rich country. We could probably sell 100 pieces of it (e.g., at $100B a piece on average) to pay off the debt and most of us wouldn't even know it. So there it is. That made me feel better. A lot better.
As long as none of these pieces is Yosemite, eh?
Or San Francisco. (Recall Hong Kong.)
How much would the Chinese pay for San Francisco or Los Angeles or Seattle I wonder? How much would U.S. give away to preserve the nation? I think someday these questions might be more than simple musings on a climbing forum.
|
|
TGT
Social climber
So Cal
|
|
|
Apr 11, 2011 - 08:24pm PT
|
I think yer right.
|
|
CrackAddict
Trad climber
Joshua Tree
|
|
|
Apr 11, 2011 - 09:02pm PT
|
"this country chooses to carry so much debt because it's cheap to do so"
hmmm... sort of like Subprime borrowers. I forget, how did that turn out for them?
Of course we have assets, but most of them are not liquid. I don't see Greece paying off all of their pension liabilities by selling the Parthenon on Ebay.
|
|
CrackAddict
Trad climber
Joshua Tree
|
|
|
Apr 11, 2011 - 09:10pm PT
|
There is also a problem with the lower dollar hypothesis- as the dollar is descending, investment in the country dries up. Why would anyone want to invest in a depreciating asset? What we really need is to simplify our tax codes and regulation to give incentives for manufacturing in the US. Manufacturing also requires real capital - not the funny money crap the Fed is printing in the basement. Real capital means savings - of which we have none because the lunatics at the Fed artificially push down interest rates to near zero. We need to allow interest rates to come up to market levels and get people saving again, which leads to real investment and manufacturing. Get rid of the Federal Reserve.
|
|
High Fructose Corn Spirit
Gym climber
Full Silos of Iowa
|
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Apr 11, 2011 - 10:47pm PT
|
CrackAddict,
Are you a Republican?
I have to be careful if you are, can't be seen agreeing too much with the Repubs or my Democratic friends will think I'm a professional operative working undercover. As a provocateur.
.....
Oh, don't shoot the messenger, what I wrote above was Jim Cramer's reason this morning on NBC Today not to be too worried.
|
|
John Moosie
climber
Beautiful California
|
|
|
Apr 11, 2011 - 10:51pm PT
|
We could just sell the names of places, like they do on stadiums.
What would the new Yosemite be called? Googlevalley.
|
|
CrackAddict
Trad climber
Joshua Tree
|
|
|
Apr 12, 2011 - 01:32pm PT
|
Mostly libertarian/independent - fiscally conservative, socially liberal. Not a big fan of either party. Democrats tax and spend, Republicans borrow and spend. Neither party has shown any will to bring spending in line with revenue.
|
|
CrackAddict
Trad climber
Joshua Tree
|
|
|
Apr 12, 2011 - 01:35pm PT
|
Googlevalley - LOL. "Joshua Tree" might become "Lending Tree National Park"
|
|
Toker Villain
Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
|
|
|
Apr 12, 2011 - 08:13pm PT
|
Ben & Jerry's Grand Canyon
|
|
John Moosie
climber
Beautiful California
|
|
|
Apr 12, 2011 - 09:14pm PT
|
Look honey.. there's El Pepsi-cola. Some day I want to climb that. And over there is Viagra Point... Oh.. Isn't Apple falls beautiful. I hear that at night there is a glowing apple behind the falls. I thought it was so clever when they turned the full moon into a glowing Apple. I wonder what they will think of next. Aren't we so lucky to live in America!
|
|
CrackAddict
Trad climber
Joshua Tree
|
|
|
Apr 13, 2011 - 07:14pm PT
|
I think both Canadians and Americans can agree to sell the name of one of the great scenic wonders of North America: Viagra Falls!
|
|
High Fructose Corn Spirit
Gym climber
-A community of hairless apes
|
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Jul 1, 2011 - 02:08pm PT
|
You mention Greece. Is Greece just an early harbinger?
Of course I worry about the mixed varieties of human behavior we would see in the event world societies and their economies start collapsing in a domino effect many details of which being unpredictable.
|
|
High Fructose Corn Spirit
Gym climber
-A community of hairless apes
|
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Jul 11, 2011 - 09:12pm PT
|
Darn republican party.
Would somebody please tell me how they got so lucky linking (a) religious Christian morals to (b) fiscal responsibility to (c) tax cuts?
Which was primarily an 80's - 90's development. So today's youngins might not even be aware of this recent historical development.
But today... the narrative is working for them. Today we have a bunch of fundamentalist Christians living in trailers hand to mouth voting Republican (to make the filthy rich even richer) because in their eyes it is the Christian conservative party committed to Christian family values.
Incredible.
How do I know? My aunt and uncle are two of them. For them, the Republican party is the Christian conservative party. Committed to Christian values, upholding them. The government and taxes issue are secondary.
|
|
August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
|
|
|
Jul 12, 2011 - 12:13pm PT
|
We had to nuke the village in order to save it.
|
|
CrackAddict
Trad climber
Joshua Tree
|
|
|
Jul 12, 2011 - 06:46pm PT
|
Geithner has never been right about anything (he didn't even think there was a housing bubble) but he is probably right about one thing - a U.S. default will be pretty disastrous. The problem is that through thoughtful central planning, our leaders have swapped out our long dated treasuries with short dated ones, averaging less than 5 years, in order to get a lower rate and finance more spending! In other words, we have the sovereign equivalent of a "teaser rate" on our National debt. Short term rates are very volatile, and even a 1% increase due to a technical default will cost us hundreds of billions of dollars.
And Dr. F, you and Dr. Krugman are way off. Right now government expenditures are a COST, not a benefit. We have played out the debt spending binge for all it is worth - we basically have an economy that is immune to stimulus. Look at a chart of increase in GDP per borrowed dollar spent by the government - 50 years ago when we had a relatively small debt we got roughly a $0.90 increase in GDP, but as our debt increased it has dropped to near zero - right now we are barely above $0.10. We are literally throwing money down the toilet when we loan it to the government, in terms of boosting the economy. Corporate, private and government debt vs. GDP is higher right now that it has been at any other time, even the Great Depression - and we did not come out of the Great Depression UNTIL we paid down our combined debt (which didn't happen until the 40s).
|
|
August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
|
|
|
Jul 14, 2011 - 01:42pm PT
|
Right now government expenditures are a COST, not a benefit. We have played out the debt spending binge for all it is worth - we basically have an economy that is immune to stimulus.
So if we slash government spending and lay off hundred of thousands of more teachers and other government workers the economy magically expands.
On the other hand, if we hire thousands of more teachers and spend billion of dollars fixing bridges, highways, buildings, sewers etc. The economy magically contracts.
Peace is War.
|
|
CrackAddict
Trad climber
Joshua Tree
|
|
|
Jul 14, 2011 - 01:57pm PT
|
Depends on what you mean by the economy "expanding" and "contracting". Are you talking about GDP? Since 2008 we have added $5 Trillion to our debt in exchange for about $500 Billion in GDP "expansion". Does that sound like a good deal to you? And can you really argue that since 2008 our economy is "expanding" because GDP has increased since then?
We don't have to eliminate all government to get the economy going. But make no mistake, government is a cost, not a benefit. Look at what is happening in Europe right now - most countries are coming to grips with the fact that their governments have grown beyond what they can afford. If your logic is correct, countries like Greece just need to spend more, right?
Of course, things like education and health care can be considered investments. But the U.S. has shown that doubling and quadrupling the money on these things leads to diminishing returns, and the question is now what can we afford. For example, any homeless person knows that "you need to have money to make money", but how has that helped them?
|
|
High Fructose Corn Spirit
Gym climber
-A community of hairless apes
|
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Oct 27, 2011 - 01:56pm PT
|
Extrapolating, I have figured it will hit $15 trillion on 2 nov 2011.
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
It's getting pretty close. Not bad for a 10-month "prophecy," eh? ;)
.....
Silver's on the rise again.
|
|
Norton
Social climber
the Wastelands
|
|
|
Oct 27, 2011 - 01:59pm PT
|
OVER 2/3 of the National Debt was added by only two Republican Presidents.
Oh the IRONY
|
|
High Fructose Corn Spirit
Gym climber
-A race of corn eaters
|
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Aug 29, 2012 - 09:06pm PT
|
Approaching 16T now.
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
That's 160 $100B assets. How much would the Chinese pay, I wonder, for San Francisco (recall Hong Kong). For Yosemite?
This guy said not to worry though.
Because the country's rich.
Hakuna matata.
|
|
couchmaster
climber
pdx
|
|
|
Oct 18, 2013 - 03:08pm PT
|
To all you democrats crowing on the republicans are bigger as#@&%es than democrats thread that you "won" the recent government shutdown: congratulations, the US debt now equals $17.075 trillion, according to figures the Treasury Department posted online today. Even the US Debt clock Fructose posted up thread can't keep up.
Winners? You think you "won"? You dems must be part of the huge amount of citizens who don't pay taxes. For the rest of us paying our share (ie taxpayers), we all owe over $148,000 (avg per taxpayer) in back taxes which we will have to pay in the future. 1/5 of the US debt is going towards interest rate payments.
And so it grows.
|
|
High Fructose Corn Spirit
Gym climber
Potemkin Village
|
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Oct 18, 2013 - 03:26pm PT
|
Maybe Larry Summers was right: Maybe the debt is not that big a deal, afterall; maybe the country should focus on growth (infrastructure, etc.) and not austerity measures? Just a thought.
|
|
matty
Trad climber
under the sea
|
|
|
Oct 18, 2013 - 04:28pm PT
|
Problem is people see the government bailing everyone out...people go bankrupt and have their debts waived...banks get bailed out because they are "to big to fail" (to big to succeed?)...home loans get forgiven... or people walk away from houses and leave the bank with the debt...
So it's no surprise that people are not concerned with government overspending because all around us we see people living on credit, buying what they cannot afford and then being revealed of the consequences. This teaches people that nothing really bad happens from overspending. But who will bail out the government? Either we pay more taxes or they print more money or raise interest rates.
I hate different aspect so Dems and Repubs, so I could say the same thing about Bush (just cut the numbers in half) but the terrible truth is...
Obama has on average spent about a thousand billion dollars more per year than the government takes in. This is about 1/3 of each years total federal budget. How can we survive if we spend 30% more than we earn each year?
I'm mad as hell that the general population can vote to spend money we do not have and screw the productive people who shoulder the entire burden. It gets to a point where people just stop trying to be productive because it's just going to be taxed away and used to support programs which are destroying the country financially. Why struggle to achieve when those achievements will be taken and used to support the very ideas that are causing the problems in the first place.
The reality is we cannot keep spend more money than we have. The consequences of not being fiscally responsible will far outweigh the short term pain felt from reducing our budget.
I'm out...my heads gunna blow up!
If you made $50,000 a year but spent $65,000 how long could it last?
|
|
SteveW
Trad climber
The state of confusion
|
|
|
Oct 18, 2013 - 04:49pm PT
|
Did Larry Summers say that, HFCS? I don't think so. . .
maybe Robert Reich or Joseph Stiglitz. . .
|
|
Barbarian
climber
|
|
|
Oct 18, 2013 - 05:08pm PT
|
ho hum
yadda yadda yadda
blather blather
I'm right
You're wrong
repeat infinitum ad nauseam
I'm going climbing....have a nice day.
|
|
SteveW
Trad climber
The state of confusion
|
|
|
Oct 18, 2013 - 05:18pm PT
|
HCFS--interesting--it just doesn't sound like the REAL Larry Summers,
who's more interested in having the big banks and other 1% just get
richer. . .
|
|
couchmaster
climber
|
|
|
Nov 18, 2014 - 06:02pm PT
|
$15 trillion? Longing for those days.
Interesting take on the whole (hole?) thing:
"Chinese Citizens Gather In Beijing Square To Watch U.S. National Debt Clock Strike $18 Trillion
News in Brief • World • foreign affairs • money • finance • china • News • ISSUE 50•45 • Nov 14, 2014
"BEIJING—Celebrating the milestone with hugs, jubilant cheers, and singing, over 600,000 Chinese citizens assembled in Tiananmen Square today to watch the U.S. debt clock mounted above the Forbidden City reach the landmark sum of $18 trillion dollars. “You could stay home and watch it on TV, but it’s much more exciting to be here with people from all over the country to celebrate this momentous day,” said Beijing resident Xiao Bu, noting that he always arrives in the early morning to stake out a good location in the square every time America’s debt rises by another trillion. “I remember my father taking me to see the $5 trillion mark so long ago, and now I’m bringing my own children here to take part in the festivities. It’s really a special part of our nation’s culture.” While most revelers left shortly after the rollover, an estimated 100,000 reportedly decided to just wait around in the square until the clock struck $19 trillion."
LOL. Needs a graph. Love teh Onion.
|
|
WBraun
climber
|
|
|
Nov 18, 2014 - 06:08pm PT
|
Yes, ... 18 trillion dollars and the American citizens let these lunatic criminal politards do this bullsh!t and still going on.
Americans are insane and lunatic also .....
|
|
Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
|
|
Nov 18, 2014 - 06:32pm PT
|
Those Chinese have a debt clock going too, they're just not aware of it.
So that makes them even stoopider.
|
|
zBrown
Ice climber
Brujò de la Playa
|
|
|
Nov 18, 2014 - 06:42pm PT
|
Ownership of publicly held debt as of September 30, 2010:
Ownership of U.S. government debt by foreign creditors as of January 31, 2011:
|
|
grover
climber
Northern Mexico
|
|
|
Nov 18, 2014 - 10:11pm PT
|
Those Chinese sure know how to party.
|
|
couchmaster
climber
|
|
$19 Trillion
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
PS, every taxpayer owes $158,835 to pay off the debt. This is money we are borrowing from private banks. You can bet that they will not be forgiving that debt. Crankloon of course, living in his moms basement, will someday be aware of this simple fact once he starts to work. Meantime, that's what us taxpayers are on the hook for. It makes you wonder what the end game is going to be. Jim Rogers and David Stockman, some of the savviest folks in the country are not fans.
Rogers -invest in farmland
Stockman - run for the hills.
Of course, no one knows the timing. Could be 10 years when the baby boomers start to retire and the debt is $30 trillion. Hmmm.
|
|
climbski2
Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
|
|
Or simply print a single 19trillion dollar bill. PAID IN FULL 30 seconds typing on a keyboard somewhere.
WTF is money at this level?
|
|
cragnshag
Social climber
san joser
|
|
|
Feb 13, 2018 - 06:39pm PT
|
Sorry to spoil everyone's good time.
You know, less taxes and more free stuff. What's not to like?
Our kids can worry about paying it off.
While everyone was busy picking sides on the partisan politics reality show, our politicians have once again kicked the can down the road. The only thing R's and D's agree on is playing fast and loose with the world's biggest credit card. There are no longer any adults in the room.
The true rate of taxation is the rate of spending...
|
|
| Messages 1 - 81 of total 81 in this topic |
|
SuperTopo on the Web
|
Let us know!