Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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blahblah

Gym climber
Boulder
May 28, 2013 - 08:51pm PT
You deniers are a total panic! It reminds me of the last time I bought some gold stock. I figured how hard can it be ? I had a little inside dope, gold price was going up, India was on fire so what the fuk?

Ever since then, and in combination with similar lessons learned when swimming with the sharks, I hire those who know what they are doing.

Sounds reasonable. But the problem is, there are some things in life where no one really knows what they're doing, and the so-called experts are nothing more than charlatans. This isn't my pet theory; I'm summarizing one of the points raised in Taleb's The Black Swan.

Slightly interesting that many of the examples of phony experts Taleb gives relate to finance, the area that you seem to think has credible "experts." (Well there are of course financial experts in some sense, but among stock pickers? Hard to say.)
Also slightly interesting that Taleb uses climate change modeling as an example of something that probably cannot be done well. (He does not at all reject man made climate change.)
Science and engineering are great when they work--but humans being humans, that has lead to a lot of junk "science" where the practitioners of hocus pocus try to ride the coattails of real scientists. How the climate change stuff will sort out remains to be seen.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
May 28, 2013 - 09:22pm PT
Slightly interesting that many of the examples of phony experts Taleb gives relate to finance,

But Taleb himself turned out to be claiming expertise he did not have, criticizing the field of statistics for instance without knowing much about it. His defense was that he was writing for the general public, not expecting to be judged by professional standards.
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
May 28, 2013 - 09:33pm PT
point taken Blahblah. Its hard to argue with you on that. For starters, no matter what the intent is here, it is forecasting so uncertainty is a given.

But right off the bat there is a great degree of difference in motive and by extension probability of corruption or deciept when comparing the science community and the unscrupulous rogues in the world of business and finance. I'm not suggesting they are all a bunch of saints or anything but if scientists sell reefers to school kids, Stockbrokers are mother rapers.

Then there are the policy makers who are father rapers.

But whether its climate science or a stock portfolio, It all starts with gaining the best understanding of the beast and you have 2 choices. Do it yourself (ultra low odds) or find someone better qualified ( infinitely better odds). Most sane people will chose the latter which means you need a system of vetting expertise better than spinning a bottle or equally as bad, letting your prejudices make the choice.

Which leads to the old question, what the difference between prejudice and intuition?



by the way, I agree that the world of investments is about the least likely place to find someone with "your interests" above thiers. But if you are willing to pay for it, it is easier to find.

Comparatively speaking finding the best climate science advice is far easier - and cheaper!
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
May 28, 2013 - 09:38pm PT
Bruce, it might surprise you to learn i am in agreement with you on deferring to experts. 30 years ago, i took a day from my self employment to work on my wifes car, their was a slight accident and i wound up with a load of explosively propelled metal filings in my face and embedded in the eyes. Well the 3 days lost production and the 100's of dollars in medical bills were more than enough to convince me to stick within the narrow realm of my expertise. Blahblah made an excellent post in answer to yours. The only thing i would add is the incredibly complex multi disciplinary field of climate science lacks a scientifically neutral over seer to sort through the tens of thousands of sometimes contradictory evidence and conclusions. Instead we have a political organization in charge that integrates the whole into a vehicle to support it's agenda and the only solutions they allow. This is obvious to all and the argument between proponents and opponents fall along ideological lines.Nobody cares about this peculiar little backwater forum so it is a good place to learn and practice skills in convincing the limited few we can influence. You are a fool if you let a " professional investment advisor" manage your retirement funds without you actively monitoring and limiting them.As for the nuclear reactor, i'll defer to Ed as he is the nuclear physicist, i'll stand on my own little patch of solid ground.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
May 28, 2013 - 09:51pm PT
Oh but you know how stats can be made to say anything.

Never understood this, words can lie so much better.

Many years ago I assigned Darrell Huff's famous little book How to Lie with Statistics to an undergrad stats course, thinking it would make things more fun. Actually it made things more confusing, Huff was writing for a different time (1950s) and trying to protect rubes from ad-men, not to help them read science. Some of his warnings, like against the gee-whiz graph, make sense only for about the first inch.
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
May 28, 2013 - 09:53pm PT
Well I am somewhat surprised to hear that so maybe we have simply missunderstood each other.

Perhaps Ed, Chiloe or someone could explain how science is "governed" and if the IPCC is capable of misrepresenting the science that is provided to it.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
May 28, 2013 - 10:05pm PT
What mechanism(s) provide for the excess energy from balance to be absorbed by the oceans rather than both the ocean and atmosphere.

http://sealevel.colorafo.edu/
Norton

Social climber
the Wastelands
May 28, 2013 - 10:07pm PT
Instead we have a political organization in charge that integrates the whole into a vehicle to support it's agenda


and the name of this well known "political" organization IS?

Dr. F.

Big Wall climber
SoCal
May 28, 2013 - 10:16pm PT
Why would the real skeptics, that are skeptical about any claim until it has been proven to be true without doubt, be on the side of the Climate Scientists, and the scientific community, they have researched the issue, and squarely blame the confusion on the right wing think tanks and big oil money.

In the real reality, there is no controversy, the right wingers created it all to confuse, spread ignorance and lies to keep the oil/coal profits high (until every last drop is burned)

The denialists are not skeptics.


Here is article explaining why global warming is real.
If you are a skeptic, you will find it true, if you deny science, you will say it's wrong.

How we know global warming is real
http://www.skeptic.com/reading_room/how-we-know-global-warming-is-real/
new world order2

climber
May 28, 2013 - 10:28pm PT
Norton and Dr. F---Like peas in a pod.

photo not found
Missing photo ID#304879
Norton

Social climber
the Wastelands
May 28, 2013 - 10:29pm PT
poor little NWO

photo not found
Missing photo ID#304881
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
May 28, 2013 - 10:42pm PT
Ain't going to happen with me. My eyes glaze over and I start drooling
new world order2

climber
May 28, 2013 - 10:43pm PT

You guys are intelligent, but you don't have even the very basic skills to understand this stuff on your own.

And as a result, have no right whatsoever to question myself, nor the gods of science.

get those skills, then you wouldn't have to be so dependent on "experts" to tell you what to think. No need for an overseer...

Such as the esteemed Ed H.

I bow to you, great god of science. Can you be any more full of yourself?

Norton

Social climber
the Wastelands
May 28, 2013 - 10:47pm PT
And as a result, have no right whatsoever to question myself, nor the gods of science.

that is correct NWO

when you have a PHD in Physics then you can piss in the tall grass with the Physicists

in the meantime, stick to being an undereducated dirt ball
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
May 28, 2013 - 10:49pm PT
NWO2 - that was one of the stupidest things I've heard in a while
new world order2

climber
May 28, 2013 - 10:52pm PT
Read what he said, Bruce.

He's basically saying, that if you aren't as well educated as himself, a learned man of science, then you have no right to have any input, to this very thread.

What a crock.
Norton

Social climber
the Wastelands
May 28, 2013 - 10:54pm PT
first of all Ed did not say that

secondly, since you don't know your own ass from second base, shut the fuk up
new world order2

climber
May 28, 2013 - 10:58pm PT

You guys are intelligent, but you don't have even the very basic skills to understand this stuff on your own.

^^^^Nawwww, Ed didn't say that.
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
May 28, 2013 - 11:02pm PT
I think you just said he has a right to drop acid
The Chief

climber
Climber from the Land Mongols under the Whites
May 28, 2013 - 11:05pm PT
The Chief has no ability to generate any of the graphs he's posting, he is just taking them off some web site, he gets huffy if you challenge him, but he is demonstrably incapable of obtaining the data and performing even the most elementary operation on it.

ED Hartouni.

Have you ever witnessed a Golden Eagle swooop over your head then down no more than ten feet in front of you, stretch out it's talons, nab a 14" wild Rainbow, pull it out of the water then fly off without missing a beat of it's 7 or so foot wingspan? I have. Just two weeks ago on one of my weekly FF jaunts to the South Lake area. That ED Hartouni is a far more precise, important and perfect than any frkn GCC mathematical physics formula on this planet.

Now please refute that.

BTW ED, I do not get huffy. I generally laugh my ass off at you GCC sheep.


You most likely do not have a clue what I mean by this post. Do you ED. Nor you zealots like Bruce, DrF etal. Not a clue.
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