Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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Dr. Christ

Mountain climber
State of Mine
Jun 11, 2013 - 09:30pm PT
We can debate about the degree of the above and if human have anything to do with it.

It will be a short debate if the judges know anything about stable isotope geochemistry...
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Jun 11, 2013 - 09:37pm PT
Bob, you can make those custom plots at water.ca.gov. Unfortunately, the site is extremely slow now. I'll edit in an exact url when it works.

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/snowapp/swcchart.action
The Chief

climber
Climber from the Land Mongols under the Whites
Jun 11, 2013 - 10:00pm PT
since 1935, only 1960, 1961, 1977, and 1990 have had lower runoff than is forecast for 2013-14

Thanks for chiming in Bob. You clearly indicate that this event has indeed occurred several times before in the last century prior to the warming debate. Obviously countless times in the past prior to the events last century. Amazingly, the seasons following the dry events, the snowfall amounts were considerably more than the average amounts.


As far as my claim to lack of reservoirs. Since 1971, only six new reservoirs have been constructed in the state.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_dams_and_reservoirs_in_California

Since that period, the population and water demand in the state has tripled possibly even quadrupled. Makes no sense what so ever when events as you indicate occur. Especially if at 50% or more of that collected water goes towards agriculture that only 20% at of it remains here in California. Most is exported to other states and countries.

Just another reason that we need to start constructing and implementing desal stations along the entire US coast line. Not one in California that serves the people perse. Only industry and research.
The Chief

climber
Climber from the Land Mongols under the Whites
Jun 11, 2013 - 10:10pm PT
ED

* Droughts happen. They are a natural event. Nothing new. Please no one start stating that the current drought is due to AGW.

* Millions if not billions of gallons of snow melt and rain water goes untouched annually . Straight to the Pacific. More reservoirs need to be implemented to capture that wasted resource for the massive population within the state of CA.

* Start building Desal stations to supplement the water req's.

Clear enough for you ED.


BTW ED, I commend you on paying for you education outright from your sweat and blood. I also thank you for supporting the GI Bill. If it means anything to any of you, I got my BS in Cultural Geography via the GI Bill.

The Chief

climber
Climber from the Land Mongols under the Whites
Jun 11, 2013 - 10:16pm PT
Desal stations ED. Military Survival verbiage. Desalination plants.

Agriculture. The number one industry in the state of CA. The fifth largest agriculture supplier in the world. Most of the states water goes towards that. Especially in the Central Valley. Primary reason the ground water in the Valley is mostly gone.


Per Bob's source.
http://ga.water.usgs.gov/edu/gwdepletion.html
Dr. Christ

Mountain climber
State of Mine
Jun 11, 2013 - 10:32pm PT
Amazingly, the seasons following the dry events, the snowfall amounts were considerably more than the average amounts.

Amazingly, you are attempting to build a correlation with very limited data and even less intelligence... which makes it all the more entertaining when you pretend to discredit the GCMs.
The Chief

climber
Climber from the Land Mongols under the Whites
Jun 11, 2013 - 10:40pm PT
Amazingly, you are attempting to build a correlation with very limited data

Here's one. Look for yourself. Limited data. Not.

http://www.thestormking.com/Weather/Sierra_Snowfall/sierra_snowfall.html


Do some homework New PhD Christ and you will also see that the AO went into a negative phase and all were El Nino periods that supplied the extra push for substantial snowfall events after the droughts indicated by Bob H.

La Nina's delivered the powerful blows that induced the droughts. Each and every time. Negative AO combined with the ENSO baby. That produces snow. Lots of it.
Dr. Christ

Mountain climber
State of Mine
Jun 11, 2013 - 11:01pm PT
Anyone else care to explain what constitutes a valid (statistically significant) correlation to this fuking moran? I've got better things to do.

Gary

Social climber
Desolation Basin, Calif.
Jun 11, 2013 - 11:09pm PT
Anyone else care to explain what constitutes a valid correlation to this fuking moran?

Troll, troll, troll your boat merrily down the stream...
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jun 12, 2013 - 12:56am PT
I see you guys spent the whole day attacking the Chief. Well congratulations, but are you going to apologize to him when this phony science of CAGW eventually crashes and burns when confronted with the real scientific explanations for the ever changing climate. Another little hint, it won't take a manufactured consensus either, just actual testable and verified predictive capability.

Bob, glad you could join us. California needs legions of applied scientists to engineer the solutions of the problems preventing a bright future, not legions of study buddies always screaming doom. Many dams, especially in the northern reaches of the state ,are slated for destruction and behind each is a reservoir. And yes as the Chief calls for-Desal plants on the coast.They also need to harvest and produce their own energy.
The Chief

climber
Climber from the Land Mongols under the Whites
Jun 12, 2013 - 01:07am PT
Anyone else care to explain what constitutes a valid (statistically significant) correlation

See what happens when you get the official title of a White Coat. It goes from looking at reality to propagating propaganda based on numbers that are all made up. Statistics have absolutely zilch to do with ENSO, El Nina and the AO NewDocChrist.

But then you would not be able to understand the reality of it if you were stepping on the IED. You'd be too busy trying to evaluate the statistical correlation of the fuse and the cell phone numbers/freqs that will in fact trigger it. Then, you'd be evaluating the statistical correlation of the angle of the weapon where it lays and whether you'd lose one or both legs at the knee or all the way to just below the hip. Then, you'd scratch your head and ask yourself if you in fact were really standing on an actual IED or not. In the mean time, BOOOM! Ultimately saying to yourself that was not statistically accurate.
Dr. Christ

Mountain climber
State of Mine
Jun 12, 2013 - 01:09am PT
yep, and we will all apologize to the catholic church and renounce Galileo/Copernicus/Aristarchus when the Earth ends up being the center of the universe.

Does it get any more idiotic?

(Chaff, you are the one that brought up a supposed correlation... which doesn't exist btw... but you are too stupid to realize it)
The Chief

climber
Climber from the Land Mongols under the Whites
Jun 12, 2013 - 01:12am PT
Actually Galileo believed that JC was his Creator and Savior. Imagine that huh NewDoc. What a travesty. A scientist believing in such a thing. BOOM!

you are the one that brought up a supposed correlation

Negative. I just pointed out to the fact that immediately after them "dry" seasons BobH posted, all were followed by heavier than normal snowfall season. Then I suggested you do your homework and you will see that the ENSO returned along with a Neg AO. Combined, the two historically produce heavier than normal snow totals in the Sierra. Reality.

You were the one that imposed the verbiage, correlation.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jun 12, 2013 - 01:16am PT
Christ you guys are the church. You are just so dazzled by your own brilliance you can,t separate fact from fiction.

Bruce, divergence will increase and truth will fill the void.A lot of it is already out their but is being refused recognition.

Tired, retiring for the night.
The Chief

climber
Climber from the Land Mongols under the Whites
Jun 12, 2013 - 01:19am PT
Taps Taps. Lights out. Silence about the decks. Now taps.

The ENSO is a brewing. About ready to steam.
Dr. Christ

Mountain climber
State of Mine
Jun 12, 2013 - 03:20am PT
For fuk sakes, you don't even know what a correlation is, do you?

correlation: a relation that exists between two measurements (like a dry year and an above average year) which vary in a way (like one following "immediately" after the other) that is not expected by chance alone (like "all" dry years being followed by a wet year), suggesting an underlying connection.

So you are claiming that your impression that

immediately after them "dry" seasons BobH posted, all were followed by heavier than normal snowfall season

is caused by ENSO which has a periodicity on the order of 3-7 years, and -AO, which has no regular periodicity?

What about the low snow pack 1924-1931? There was a major ENSO in 1925, and -AO in 1924, 1926, 1929, and 1931... yet still lower than average snowfall for 8 years.

How about 1997-1998, the strongest ENSO on record followed by a -AO? Barely average snow pack the following year.

I'm sure those don't count... for some reason.

Hey, if average annual snow pack at Donner is 142" and the total precipitation recorded at Donner for WY2012 was less than 25", doesn't that make 2012 a dry year? So, since ALL dry years are IMMEDIATELY followed by above average years, clearly 2013 is an above average year... despite being below average.

Precipitation data taken from USGS 391930120165301 DONNER LK PRECIP GAGE NR TRUCKEE CA.
Dr. Christ

Mountain climber
State of Mine
Jun 12, 2013 - 10:29am PT
Sorry Bruce, that's just me... I just can't get enough of the morans...

k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Jun 12, 2013 - 12:04pm PT
... are you going to apologize to him when this phony science of CAGW eventually crashes and burns when confronted with the real scientific explanations for the ever changing climate.


Actually, I don't expect the deniers to apologize when the climate goes south. I don't even expect them to confront the reason why they were so bull-headed to begin with, and that is a sad thing.

When your preachers are shown to have no cloths, you will just imagine them to be fully clothed and carry on as usual, because as it's been shown in the past few thousand posts here, deniers are unable to alter their views, even when shown in black and white that they've been mislead.

Amazing what million$ in propaganda paid for by the fossil fuel industry can do to a few "good thinkers."


And Rick, we have every reason to call The Chief an imbecile. Every day there are scores of posts from him that prove it. Mr. Ther-Is-No-Drought because there is still a patch of snow somewhere in the high country.
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
Jun 12, 2013 - 12:26pm PT
lets see here, the drought of 77. I remember that one well. This years water is FAR above those levels in 1977. All lakes are higher than that drought. Even Tahoe is some 3 feet above its natural rim and the truckee flows as ususal. NOTHING like the 77 period. Then take in occurrences such as the 100 yr flood of 97. And Tahoe is still some 600 feet deeper than it once was for hundreds of years.

What does all this indicate to one? Strange unpredictable weather? Not a soul on earth predicted the flood of 97. Science explained it after the fact., but we already knew a warm front pacific fed had arrived -duh.


In 77 we were already in RED FLAG conditions via fuel moistures, and we are no where near that right now. We had CLOSED areas from the public around carson to avoid wildfire sets even! In 77 we had nealry two months of HoT dry weather (dog days) and weve experienced less and less of those dog days in the past ten summers. (dog days being hot/dry stagnant conditions)

rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jun 12, 2013 - 01:32pm PT
Did you guys listen to that presentation from Murray Salby i posted a few days back. Did you read the Lu paper, the Usokin paper, the Shapiro et al paper,the Penn and livingston paper, the recent works of Svensmark, or the recent works of Trenberth trying to identify the missing natural negative feedbacks,or have you read the approximately 50% of the papers Ed has posted that don't have a CO2 only forcing bias.A lot of the work trying to identify and quantify the natural forcings that tower over CO2's feeble signal is being done and it is your bias that doesn't allow any of it to register between your ears.

Did you know their are upright trees 600 feet below Tahoe's present surface that grew their around 1000 a.d. during a mega drought? Did you know that nevada's Lake Lahontan was, at many times in the comparatively recent prehistoric past, larger than the great Lakes and over 1100 feet deep? Did you know that it has ebbed lower than it's present stand (remnants Pyramid Lake, Walker Lake, Topaz Lake) and rebounded to full high stand many times?Did you know the only constant in climate is change, and far beyond the little swings you are now crying doom about?
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