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Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
Jul 5, 2013 - 02:57pm PT
Bruce,, the statistics are developed from the factuals. THEN COMES THEORIES.

But there is only one thing that fuels our fires. BUILD UP OF FUELS.

Fires today behave exactly as they did 80 yrs ago. Thunder storms will still blow them up in a 306 degree style.

Some of the largest fires in history occurred LONG ago. Even before the industrial=ial revolution.

In fact, the investigators in AZ ARE comparing this latest tragedy to the MANN GULCH fire in Montana in the 1940s as the similarity is striking.


ANd i breezed through that link you posted but it was so long i did not get to any owl issues in it.



k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Jul 5, 2013 - 03:02pm PT
Ron plays card #1:

The WEAKEST stuff ever..

I agree Ron, your argument is as weak as a left jab from a toddler.


OF COURSE warmer temps mean harder burning fires.. But a a degree or so diff ISNT going to make or break ANYTHING in wildifires.

Sounds like opinion to me. For me, I'd sooner listed to somebody who knows what they're talking about, and would pay extra attention to somebody who studies the subject for a living:

"Even a degree or so warmer, day in day out, evaporates water faster and that desiccates the system more," said fire ecologist Steve Running of the University of Montana.
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
Jul 5, 2013 - 03:04pm PT
kman ive forgotten more about wildfire that youll ever know.
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Jul 5, 2013 - 03:22pm PT
Funny Ron, we're talking climate change and how it has an effect on wild fires.

Your prior knowledge on wild fires doesn't give your opinion traction.
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
Jul 5, 2013 - 03:25pm PT
YOUR knowledge of wildfire could fit under my little finger nail with plenty of room left over for buggars.
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Jul 5, 2013 - 03:29pm PT
Ron, tell me how you know about the scope of my wild fire knowledge?

More hot air and ad-hoc opinion. Keep at it, the respect for your writings dwindles with each of your baseless posts.
Elcapinyoazz

Social climber
Joshua Tree
Jul 5, 2013 - 03:32pm PT
Hi Ron,

What factors influence the fuels moisture %?
And what effects do those fuel moisture levels have on fires?
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
Jul 5, 2013 - 03:34pm PT
What effects fuel moistures? HUMIDITY, TEMPERATURE, WEATHER and TOPOGRAPHY.


The explanation of how these affect wildfires are complex and far too long for me to indulge here.
Dr. Christ

Mountain climber
State of Mine
Jul 5, 2013 - 03:44pm PT
But a a degree or so diff ISNT going to make or break ANYTHING in wildifires.

It is THE FUEL MOISTURES that are lacking in many areas.

And you know this how, intuition?


You KNOW plants lose more water when it is hot, right?
You know soil does too right?

A 1.0F increase in air temperature can result in an increase in water loss of over 1/2" of per month. The article Bruce posted says the 10 year average air temperature has changed 2.3F in AZ.

Do you really think a loss of 1/2" per month is insignificant given the very low precipitation in the area? (HINT: the little blue line WELL below 1/4" is the average precipitation.

Credit: Dr. Christ

What effects fuel moistures? HUMIDITY, TEMPERATURE, WEATHER and TOPOGRAPHY.

So, tell me, how is it that "a degree or so diff ISNT going to make or break ANYTHING in wildifires."



The explanation of how these affect wildfires are complex and far too long for me to indulge here.

Your combination of arrogance and ignorance is tiresome and nauseating.
jgill

Boulder climber
Colorado
Jul 5, 2013 - 03:45pm PT
. . . the wisdom of past eras that got us into this mess in the first place

Oooh . . . I feel so bad about that . . .


;>\
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Jul 5, 2013 - 03:51pm PT
What effects fuel moistures? HUMIDITY, TEMPERATURE, WEATHER and TOPOGRAPHY.

weather
[ wər ]

state of atmosphere: the state of the atmosphere with regard to temperature, cloudiness, rainfall, wind, and other meteorological conditions


Looks like you failed the question Ron, and that you're not as knowledgeable about these things as you'd like to feel.

But you're funny. And that does have merit, so chin up.
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
Jul 5, 2013 - 03:55pm PT
Bruce,, you ask WHY i dont elaborate,, and that reason is obvious from above.


Fifteen years of experience, attended EVERY advanced Fire weather behavior course in the USFS. Been burned over. Had friends burned. My positions on fire assignments:


Hot shot crewman

Heltiack asst foreman

Engine tanker truck operator

Crew boss

Fire boss

Line boss

Tractor boss

Felling boss

Base camp manager


among many many others.



So young idgets like wes will now post his graphs not to prove anything but to just show his disdain for me. I have in my library may reports from fatal fires that i was involved with one way or the other. But never mind that right? Frankly ive had a gawdamm gutfull.









raymond phule

climber
Jul 5, 2013 - 04:11pm PT
It is strange, Ron has no problem at all to ignore scientist or disagree with them on subjects that he has very limited knowledge about but when people disagree with him on subjects that he claims he know he seems to became frustrated.
Dr. Christ

Mountain climber
State of Mine
Jul 5, 2013 - 04:17pm PT
So young idgets like wes will now post his graphs not to prove anything but to just show his disdain for me.

Really Rong, you can't even see the point of that graph? It doesn't PROVE anything, it SHOWS that the average precipitation around Yarnell is less than 1/4". Others have proven (and damn near anyone can show) that a 1.0F increase in temperature can increase water loss by over 1/2". Are you REALLY so willfully ignorant that you refuse to accept 1.0F ABSOLUTELY WILL make a difference in fuel moisture, and hence fire behavior?


I have in my library may reports from fatal fires that i was involved with one way or the other. But never mind that right?

Right, because your reports from fires have NOTHING TO DO with what influences fire behavior.

I appreciate your hard work on the lines, but you NEVER studied how fire behaves. It is complicated and you don't learn it in those 1 week FS classes.

I was on a hand crew for 5 years before working for the Riverside Fire Lab (USDA) where they ACTUALLY STUDY WHAT INFLUENCES FIRE BEHAVIOR. Huge advances have been made since the 1970's. I'm sorry you are too stubborn and/or willfully ignorant to accept that. But that is okay, the world will go on without your ridiculous mixture of arrogance and ignorance.
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
Jul 5, 2013 - 04:24pm PT
BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHAhahahahahaha Right wes... ROFLMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Like you KNOW ME or WHAT classes i took or WHAT I STUDIED..


Your a punk period.
Dr. Christ

Mountain climber
State of Mine
Jul 5, 2013 - 04:32pm PT
Nope, I don't know you or the classes you took. All I know is that you are either unable or unwilling to provide any relevant information about anything, ever. You acknowledge that fuel moisture affects fire behavior, but refuse to admit air temperature affects fuel moisture... something any 8 year old can CLEARLY understand and demonstrate. Instead of addressing how air temperature affects FIRE BEHAVIOR you go off about the jobs you held over 3 decades ago and the reports you have. You bring it on yourself. Those of us interested in the truth can't help but correct you when you are FLAT OUT WRONG.

Did you take the equivalent of S-590? Were you ever FBAN?
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Jul 5, 2013 - 04:36pm PT
Ron, I have to admit, your fire-fighting resume is impressive. And you seem to have boned up with classes too boot. It appears you're quite knowledgeable and rounded in this area.

But all that, and you still say that a 1 degree increase in temperature doesn't make a difference in the severity of wild fires?? Come on, my man, and have a beer. It's time to take solace in the fact that half the population possesses below-average intelligence.
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
Jul 5, 2013 - 04:52pm PT
S-490 Advanced Wildland Fire Behavior Calculations Pre-Course Work (2010)
Introduction
The S-490 pre-course work consists of study material and a pre-qualifying test. It contains five parts covering information from S-190, S-290, S-390 and BehavePlus.

The pre-qualifying test is open book and must be completed with no outside assistance. The test must be administered by a proctor (your supervisor or designated acting). The proctor will certify that the test was administered properly by signing the Proctor's Test Compliance Statement.

Please do not attempt this pre-course work unless directed to do so. The pre-qualifying test is only available from your proctor through the Geographic Training center.
Objectives
Students will successfully complete the pre-course study materials to prepare for the pre-qualifying test.
Assignment
Step 1: Download and complete each of the pre-course study parts. A practice test and answer key is provided with each part. Though you are not required to complete the practice tests for each part, it will be useful in preparing for the pre-qualifying test. Do not turn these in to your course coordinator. They are for you to keep.

Part 1 Using Topographic Maps
Part 2 Fire Weather and Fire Behavior Knowledge
Part 3 Fire Behavior Inputs
Part 4 Manual Methods of Fire Behavior Prediction
Part 5 Use of Behave Plus

Step 2: After you have completed the pre-course work parts, designate a proctor (your supervisor or designated acting) and forward his/her contact information to the course coordinator. The course coordinator will contact your proctor give instructions, required paperwork and the pre-qualifying test for adminstration.
Reference and Instructional Material

All references are in .pdf format

Aids to Determining Fuel Model

Assessing Crown Fire Potential

Basic Land Navigation

BehavePlus File Organization

Canopy Fuel Profiles

Comparison of Crown Fire Modeling

Fire Behavior Field Reference Guide (not updated)

Fire Behavior Nomograms

Fire Ellipse Paper

Fire Weather Handbook (16 mb)

Firefighter Safety Zones

Fireline Handbook, Appendix B

How to Predict Spread and Intensity

Interagency Fire Use Module

Inventorying Downed Woody Material

Predicting Behavior and Size of Crown

Standard Fire Behavior Fuel Models

Stereo Photo Guide for Canopy Characteristics
Technical Requirements
Adobe Reader (Download)

BehavePlus and other Fire Behavior and Fire Danger Software (Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory)




^^^^^^^that being just ONE course i took. So that is why i wont be typing out five pages of complex explanations about this.
Dr. Christ

Mountain climber
State of Mine
Jul 5, 2013 - 04:57pm PT
So you did the pre-course work portion of S-490?
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Jul 5, 2013 - 04:58pm PT
Ron: Nice!

Predicting Behavior and Size of Crown


So, does water content have an effect of the size of the fire?

According to the Yosemite Fire Chief, it does. And I believe her. I also believe it when they say the dry conditions have moved forward the fire season by two months.

Why? Because it's dry and Hot. We're in a drought, and the extra heat doesn't help us WRT fire danger.

But I figured you knew all this, according to your credentials and the class outline you posted above.
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