Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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jogill

climber
Colorado
Jun 30, 2013 - 04:25pm PT
Pardon the intrusion. I haven't been reading this thread, but I am curious if there are any meteorologists posting here? In my past life, fifty years ago, I was a meteorologist for the USAF, but left the profession for a math career and haven't kept up with the science. I got my meteorology education at the University of Chicago.

However, I have lived on the high prairie of southern Colorado for over 40 years, and this year I have witnessed weather-related phenomena I haven't seen before: Visualize looking 30 miles out on the prairie, under lowering skies, and seeing what appeared to be a bank of whitish-yellow mist rising up, stretching across many miles, with tendrils spiraling up a thousand feet or more, then watching as this bank advances toward you, finally reaching you as you are driving back from a nearby state park, forcing you to pull over while engulfed in horrendous winds and dense blowing dirt: a violent dirtstorm. I have been in several of these this spring and summer.

A few weeks ago my daughter, visiting from NYC, was fascinated as we watched dust devils in the distance towering up more than a thousand feet. Her remark, with which I agreed, was "it looks like Mars."

I haven't a clue as to an explanation of these phenomena other than an unusual undulation of the jet stream, which could have several causes. One of which might be CO2 warming, but I personally doubt humans have a lot to do with this apparent climate change. But this is an appraisal from a once-upon-a-time meteorologist who has forgotten a lot.

Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
Jun 30, 2013 - 05:05pm PT
McHale,, do a 180 and youll be on target with my last 100% sarcastic post..;-)
Dr. Christ

Mountain climber
State of Mine
Jun 30, 2013 - 05:07pm PT
yo jo, could it be similar to the phenomenon that helps create the famous front range T-storms? Warm air lifting off the plains, causing instability/winds/dust devils. Maybe with less vegetation and/or monsoonal moisture (due to funky jet stream) to keep the dust down?

I used to LOVE watching those thunderheads build when working near Colorado Springs (Hayman Fire). So much energy!
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Jun 30, 2013 - 05:21pm PT
Hi John, I hadn't heard about those dust storms but just checked, and they have certainly made the news. From the Denver Post on June 9:

LAMAR Jillane Hixson stopped dusting her home about noon on a clear Friday and looked out the window to a storm roiling in the distance.

Small dust devils kicked up, and within moments, a punishing dust storm slammed into Hixson Farms at full force, trapping Hixson and her husband, Dave Tzilkowski, in their home for 15 hours to kick off the Memorial Day weekend.

"You hear sand and dirt pounding against the window," said Hixson, a fifth-generation farmer whose land and home are 4 miles south of Lamar. "You know that it's your crop that's hitting the windows and blowing away, and it's not just affecting you, but also everyone else."

They raced to close the blinds and curtains to minimize the thick
Dave Tzilkowski and his wife, Jillane Hixson, look out over their farm from their backyard. Their crop of wheat was damaged by the recent dust storm. "You hear sand and dirt pounding against the window," said Hixson, a fifth-generation farmer whose property is 4 miles south of Lamar. "You know that it's your crop that's hitting the windows and blowing away, and it's not just affecting you, but also everyone else."

"You can't stand to look at it," she said. "It's like a train wreck, looking a disaster full in the face."

They paced and they prayed as 60 mph winds kept coming.

"At one point, the sand was pounding on the glass so hard, I didn't know if it was hail or dirt," she said.

By late evening, so much dirt was floating inside the house, they had to cover their faces with handkerchiefs.

"It was in your nose, on your tongue, in your eyes," she said.

Hixson showered late that night but soon was covered with another layer of grime. They went to bed at 11 p.m., putting their heads under the blankets to shield them from the noise and the dirt, but they couldn't really sleep. They moved from bedroom to bedroom trying to find some peace.

By the time they woke at 6 a.m. Saturday, the storm had passed.

They opened the front door and saw 3-foot drifts of dirt everywhere.

"We were shellshocked, almost immobilized by depression," she said. "We were overwhelmed by the huge financial loss, and by the physical and emotional stress."
....
"We had periods of blowing soils in the 1970s that required tractor work," Tzilkowski said. "But this is ridiculous. I've never seen anything like it."
....
It's the inevitable result of three seasons of extreme drought in the area D4 this year, the worst on the U.S. Drought Monitor scale, and no relief in sight, said state climatologist Nolan Doesken.


http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_23420681/massive-dust-storms-hit-southeast-colorado-evoking-dirty
McHale's Navy

Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
Jun 30, 2013 - 05:27pm PT
McHale,, do a 180 and youll be on target with my last 100% sarcastic post..;-)

You asking me to do a front lever Ron? Ask Mr. Gill! I'm pretty sure Ron you meant it as I took it.

Welcome to the Frayed Knot Mr. Gill. It's a bit like bouldering. I'm expecting some sand-bagging from you! Yep, those dust storms are something. People don't hear about the ones in Central Oregon either! They are cutting the damn trees as a way to pray for rain. It's all pretty effing stupid.

I don't get why you don't think people can change the climate. If we can increase atmospheric CO2 by 40% it means we are big enough to have an impact. We've packed a lot more into the oceans and it's just waiting to come flying back out with a little more warming. In general, people do not understand what an extraordinary achievement it has been for humans to do that, so many of the issues of understanding the problem flow from there.
Dr. Christ

Mountain climber
State of Mine
Jun 30, 2013 - 05:37pm PT
Here in the northern Sierra it is hot and dry with a week of T-storms in the forecast. I can almost smell the smoke already...
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jun 30, 2013 - 06:46pm PT
Too funny Ron. NV energy used to have a future carbon credit plan-you saved them up for now with the idea of a carbon trading market in Nevada for tommorrow-don't hold your breath or exhale for that matter-of course you'll have to talk with Warren Buffet now.

Chiloe are those crocks- i don't think so, crooks would be a better term.

Jogill, welcome to the trenches of the Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming war. We get down and dirty wrestling in the mud of the supposedly melting global ice mass daily. What a crock it is.
McHale's Navy

Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
Jun 30, 2013 - 07:18pm PT

Never thought you Jogill were one of us. Interesting to say the least.

Why is that Chief?
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Jun 30, 2013 - 08:16pm PT
Chiloe are those crocks- i don't think so, crooks would be a better term.

Your belief system is reality-proof, Rick. You have an ideology so specific it bestows Certain Knowledge regarding the mass balance of Antarctica, without troubling to learn anything about it. And if 47 scientists who study that mass balance reach a different conclusion than you, they must all be liars.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jun 30, 2013 - 08:57pm PT
For those 47 scientists you cite, chiloe, as representing ice mass loss in Antarctica, there are 47 more (many times the same scientists both pro and con, such as Zwally) that represent the opposite. Therein lies one of the major problems in this field of the supposed science of climate change-the trough is full of disgusting wastes of our tax dollars that is being greedily devoured by the hogs of climate science. All they have to do to ensure continuing feed is insert a sentence or two, or tweak a little data, to pay the proper homage to the church of CAGW.You saw the ISEMASS presentation of Zwally so i'm sure you are aware of this.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Jun 30, 2013 - 09:31pm PT
For those 47 scientists you cite, chiloe, as representing ice mass loss in Antarctica, there are 47 more

Can you name them?

So far you haven't been able to back up a single one of your claims on this topic, but each time one proves false you dodge sidewise and make a new accusation that's equally false, invoking the villainy of all the scientists -- and it is pretty much all of them -- who don't agree with your ideology-derived beliefs about the planet. You've morphed in just hours from

The Antarctic ice mass is increasing, there is no doubt about that

but when confronted by a recent 47-author paper saying the opposite, shifting to

the majority say it is increasing, it's just that you discount the consensus

But your "majority" and "consensus" are nowhere to be seen, and you won't even admit where you got that. Quickly shift to your contempt for their education,

a generation of enviromental scientists our universities turned out instead of the hard sciences

So I listed some of their hard-science credentials, at which point you decided to call them liars instead,

Chiloe are those crocks- i don't think so, crooks would be a better term.

but I called you on that too, now your latest is to make up the 47 more claim. There's no integrity to arguing like this, Rick. You said your goal was to make a single convert, but I don't see how it could be anyone with a brain.

Maybe one of Chief's sock puppets can help out.
McHale's Navy

Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
Jun 30, 2013 - 10:46pm PT
The ICE MASS loss is from the surrounding Ice Shelves and NOT from the interior continent where depths of blue ice reach upwards of 9000' thick. There is absolutely NOTHING that states that the INTERIOR ice coverage is losing any MASS. NONE!

That's not what this sounds like;

The researchers also compared the rates at which the ice shelves are shedding ice to the speed at which the continent itself is losing mass and found that, on average, ice shelves lost mass twice as fast as the Antarctic ice sheet did during the study period.

"Ice shelf melt doesn't necessarily mean an ice shelf is decaying; it can be compensated by the ice flow from the continent," Rignot said. "But in a number of places around Antarctica, ice shelves are melting too fast, and a consequence of that is glaciers and the entire continent are changing as well."

That's at the end of the story by the way.

Mr. Gill is going to have to think really hard before he joins the Denier troupe!
McHale's Navy

Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
Jun 30, 2013 - 11:14pm PT
Try this from the same article;

" A 2006 paper derived from satellite data, measures changes in the gravity of the ice mass, suggests that the total amount of ice in Antarctica has begun decreasing in the past few years.[10] Another recent study compared the ice leaving the ice sheet, by measuring the ice velocity and thickness along the coast, to the amount of snow accumulation over the continent. This found that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet was in balance but the West Antarctic Ice Sheet was losing mass. "
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jun 30, 2013 - 11:35pm PT
Below are listed links to several papers/articles about the increasing ice mass balance of Antarctica. This science, as always is a collaborative exercise, probably involves more than the 47 scientists Chiloe cites as blowing hard in opposition of ice increase.

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/arctic-antarctic-ice.html

http://phys.org/news4180.html

http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/364/1844/1627.full.pdf

http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/271161

Sometimes the the older works stand the test of time impervious of refutation by later science. I note their are numerous very current papers/articles noting the antarctic sea ice increase.
McHale's Navy

Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
Jul 1, 2013 - 12:00am PT
One thing is evident from all of these papers is that Antarctica is warming and so is the ocean around it. The dynamic is changing. Glaciers are flowing more rapidly and increasing snow is making up for it 'most' of the time. None of these papers are the 'tent poles' you see them as Rick and Chief. Their biggest value to you here is if others do not read them.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jul 1, 2013 - 12:09am PT
Oh yeah, here is a presentation from Zwally (mentioned by Chiloe in his 47 scientists against ice increase) at the 2012 ISMASS workshop in Oregon.

http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20120013495

And Mchale, it is cooling around the south pole rather than warming-there is lots of paper documenting this.Convert while you still can gracefully.
McHale's Navy

Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
Jul 1, 2013 - 12:09am PT
Thanks Chief!

And Mchale, it is cooling around the south pole rather than warming-there is lots of paper documenting this.Convert while you still can gracefully.

Show the papers clown. All of the links you have posted above, one way or another, show that it is warming. You always shoot yourself in the foot Rick. You can't be satisfied with a near mass balance, you have to claim that it is cooling also!

Here's an Idea - let's all watch this video and then debate the content;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ROw_cDKwc0

They start speaking English at about 45 seconds. Murry Salby is one of the 'scientists' on Rick's side. The denialist seem to be falling all over this guy......what choice do they have! The strange thing about this version of Jackass is that Johnny Knoxville isn't in it.
jgill

Boulder climber
Colorado
Jul 1, 2013 - 12:47am PT
Mayor Bloomberg of NYC has proposed a multibillion dollar plan to attempt to adjust to changing conditions like rising sea levels. If the scientific documentation is there that seems like a reasonable course of action. To EPA our existing coal plants out of existence while in Asia a new coal plant opens every week would have a miniscule effect on climate change while exacerbating serious economic problems in the USA. We would become more of a laughing stock internationally than we are at present. IMHO.

But as I always say, I could be wrong . . .
McHale's Navy

Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
Jul 1, 2013 - 12:50am PT
Obama won't do any such thing. Talk is cheap. He won't do that any more than he's going to put solar panels on the White House like he promised.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/technology/2012/09/changing-cities-where-are-the-solar-panels-mr-president/
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Jul 1, 2013 - 01:15am PT
Below are listed links to several papers/articles about the increasing ice mass balance of Antarctica. This science, as always is a collaborative exercise, probably involves more than the 47 scientists Chiloe cites as blowing hard in opposition of ice increase.

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/arctic-antarctic-ice.html


Nope, that one is not about Antarctic mass balance at all. It is about Antarctic sea ice.

http://phys.org/news4180.html

Nope, that's about the interior of the East Antarctic ice sheet only. It says right in the second sentence(!) that West Antarctica is contributing significantly to sea level.

http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/364/1844/1627.full.pdf

Fair enough, you've got 4 authors there in a 2006 paper using 19922003 data.

http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/271161

Even the author of that story is confused about sea ice and land ice.

Sometimes the the older works stand the test of time impervious of refutation by later science. I note their are numerous very current papers/articles noting the antarctic sea ice increase.

"Impervious of refutation"? This is fatuous. You've just revealed that through all your declarations you did not even grasp what "Antarctic mass balance" refers to.
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