Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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McHale's Navy

Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
Jun 28, 2013 - 04:11pm PT
To deny that any warming is taking place and that it contributes to the problems is................what is that? I'm not saying you don't care about the forests. It's very clear that others in your field will have a very different idea of what is going on though. What, are you the only Forester on the planet?
Dr. Christ

Mountain climber
State of Mine
Jun 28, 2013 - 04:14pm PT
Ron, you are confounding the issue by using a number that is NOT relevant. That ".11 of one degree" increase is the global average and says nothing about local conditions.

http://www.uwyo.edu/haub/ruckelshaus-institute/_files/docs/publications/2010-bark-beetle-workshop-proceedings.pdf

Read page 5

The current forest composition can be attributed to the past century (or more) of natural environmental conditions and disturbances, as well as past management decisions, including fire and timber policy. Many wildfires have been suppressed throughout the twentieth century, leading to denser stands of trees in a susceptible age category in some forest types, such as ponderosa pine, and leading to less diversity of age classes
in other areas. Timber harvest practices of the late 1800s and
early 1900s also contributed to more even-aged and even-sized
stands that are now susceptible to beetles (Negron 1998; Fettig
et al. 2007; Bentz et al. 2009).

Climate conditions
Two climatic factors are likely interacting to facilitate the magnitude of the current epidemic: 1) drought-induced stress on host trees, which reduces defense mechanisms (Mattson and Haack 1987); and 2) warmer winter temperatures that increase overwinter survival of beetles and can speed up reproductive cycles in some species (Cole 1981; Bentz et al. 2009). Together, these two factors have created prime conditions that have resulted in the marked increase of bark beetle populations (Raffa et al. 2008). The bark beetlesí tolerance to cold is dynamically Figure 4. A) Beetle galleries; B) Blue-stain fungus in lodgepole pine.

The bark beetlesí tolerance to cold is dynamically dependent on the temperature regime experienced by a given species, so a simple low temperature threshold cannot fully explain the role of temperature in beetle survival (Bentz and Mullins 1999). However, when prolonged drought is coupled with increasingly shorter periods of severe cold and overall warmer winter temperatures, the likelihood of all bark beetle speciesí
survival greatly increases (Bentz et al. 2010).


Even though i have enough training and classes to have a masters in forestry

Classes don't get you a MS.
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Jun 28, 2013 - 04:15pm PT
LOL Chief, your graph shows about 1.1 C rise per century using 1996-2013 trend.

Thanks, man, that's quite a '17 year pause'.



To help you out, splitting hadCRUT3,4:

1996: .24 C
2013: .44 C

Let see if you can do the math.
raymond phule

climber
Jun 28, 2013 - 04:15pm PT

Even though i have enough training and classes to have a masters in forestry, youll not believe what i have to say. so much for all that first hand experience i guess.

The irony. People should listen to you on a subject where you could have taken a masters degree but you see no problem in ignoring scientists with a PhD when you don't like their conclusions.
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
Jun 28, 2013 - 04:23pm PT
Wes what that article you copied fails to mention is that beetles by nature "sense" or smell STRESSED trees to attack. As a group of beetles begin to work, trees start dying. The Spread then happens through the fact that those dead trees now act as sponges of moisture as well as rotting conditions that lead to various fungi as well. Soils dry out due to loss of crown. So they radiate outward each "layer" of new trees becoming stressed by the previous yrs kill. This has been going on since BEFORE the industrial revolution.


edit: McHale, i was not a forester, but a forestry technician.
Dr. Christ

Mountain climber
State of Mine
Jun 28, 2013 - 04:26pm PT
Ron, what you fail to do is realize the role of references in a scientific article.

Soils dry out due to loss of crown.

No way in HELL a beetle kill tree dries out the soil more than a living tree.
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
Jun 28, 2013 - 04:37pm PT
When exposed to direct sunlight below a dead tree the soils do indeed dry out faster. And that dead tee robs further moisture from the air and soils like a sponge. Sheesh,, its the very basis of "Tolerant vs Intolerant" species.


Look at Mcllelans peak for proof of what i say. At one time it was covered in Jeffrey, fir and sugar pine. It was logged 100% and the soils dryed out, changing the climate of the entire massive of that peak to a artemesia habitat.



Dr. Christ

Mountain climber
State of Mine
Jun 28, 2013 - 04:48pm PT
The soil below beetle kill trees is not exposed to direct sunlight for a few years or more ("red phase").

The change in habitat you mention around McClellans (?) was most likely due to the fact that it was "logged 100%" and has NOTHING to do with beetle kill. Beetle kill trees still shed their needles, providing organic matter to the forest floor. Organic matter is the main component of soil that holds onto moisture.

Logging at 100% in that environment is IDIOTIC, as evident from the results. Driven by PROFIT no doubt, without a CARE for the land.

Were you part of that operation? What was the prescription for soil organic matter and soil cover?
McHale's Navy

Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
Jun 28, 2013 - 04:56pm PT
Down in Oregon they are cutting junipers to keep water in the soil. THAT sounds pretty goofy. They claim the junipers are stealing the 'peoples' water.

First link in a search comes up with this. This quote below is from the first post in the blog. It's so stupid what is going on down there;
http://www.hcn.org/issues/44.16/the-great-new-mexican-juniper-massacre

Fast forward to Central Oregon-the Bend Bulletin recently ran a piece that claimed junipers were an invasive species that out-compete native grass for water. The Bulletin claimed a mature juniper soaks up 40 gallons a day and dessicates the soil, and that it is practically a civic duty to cut as much juniper as possible to save the land from drought. Total BS, but really bad ideas in range management seem to be practically immortal.

Ron, I used Forester as a general term, did not mean any kind of distinction.
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
Jun 28, 2013 - 04:58pm PT
uhhhh Wes,, calm down.. That took place in the GOLD rush of the comstock lol!

Back when science of any factor was still in infancy.


Every last stick save for about a half dozen fir or pine were cut from that peak to use in buildings, mines and firewood during the goldrush. They had no clue what they were doing except harvesting that silly sought after metal. Most all of the pinion pine in that area came from the Chinese and are actually an invasive sub specie. Long ago i was involved in some profile pits and stump exams of old sugar pine on that peak. I also was on the fire that took out the 100 yr old sage on it after that comstock debacle. Ive seen many a change to that hill.




edit: Just wanted to make sure you werent giving me a title i did not have Mchale lol!


And yes, living things take up water/soil/nutrients. So do dead ones.

But dead ones only absorb so much and they are done. The green keep on giving and taking. ( much like people);-)


Ol plantation saying "GREEN SIDE UP DUMMY!" Repeated several times daily for inmate crews lol!


we planted trees in Georgia once where you kept the top leader roots OUT of the ground.. Humidity running 80 + % most of the year and all LOL!





edit:



The average mass of a tree is about 3 tons and roughly two thirds of this is cellulose matter consisting of carbon. Therfore your average tree has about two tons of carbon in it which will have been sequestered during a typical 70 year growth.

What you need to consider however, is that when a tree dies the carbon that was stored in it is released back into the atmosphere (unless itís preserved as timber in buildings, furniture etc). Over itís lifetime a tree is effectively nothing more than a temporary store of carbon dioxide.

What you need if youíre going to use trees to permanently remove trees carbon dioxide from the atmosphere are the sort that produce a yield such as fruit, resin, gum, rubber etc. Planted in the right locations such trees remove an average of 30kg of CO2 each year (this is after allowing for their eventual decomposition, during their lifetime they remove about 50kg per year).


BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
Jun 28, 2013 - 06:15pm PT
In Oklahoma and many other plains states, we are being overrun with eastern red cedar. They have taken over because of the lack of big prairie fires before white people showed up. In a fire, they go up like they are made of diesel fuel.

It is a big problem. Removing invasive species that cause trouble is a good thing, particularly when they cause problems. Just look at the Zebra mussel's in the Great Lakes. They showed up in ballast tanks of Asian ships. Now the beaches are solid zebra mussel shells, and they cause all kinds of problems with water intake pipelines.

Another nasty is the lamprey. Those things look like eels, have a round mouth which attaches to a big fish, and eats it until it dies.

Death by lamprey would be horrific if it happened to humans. They are like 3 foot long leeches.
McHale's Navy

Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
Jun 28, 2013 - 09:30pm PT
Yeah! Specially in Yosemite! Haha!
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jun 28, 2013 - 10:36pm PT
I know some of you warmers have been stressed out about arctic sea ice with the plight of the hollywood Polar Bears and all.Seems it's shaping up to be one of the coldest summer seasons in Arctic history above 80 north.

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

Dr. Christ

Mountain climber
State of Mine
Jun 28, 2013 - 11:39pm PT
What you need to consider however, is that when a tree dies the carbon that was stored in it is released back into the atmosphere (unless itís preserved as timber in buildings, furniture etc).

What you need to consider is that you are Wrong. THOUSANDS of gigatonnes of carbon is stored in forest SOILS... more carbon storage than in all the living vegetation or in the atmosphere. That carbon is released when forest soils are degraded... by, say, clear cutting or high intensity fires.




Zebra mussels are headed toward Tahoe. Some here, I won't say who, are wrong in thinking they are no big deal and just another "eco-scare" to be disregarded. Same type of folk who would cry about the tourist/fishing industry being destroyed by not stalking Sierra lakes with invasive fish. I don't think they have been found in Tahoe yet (definitely some on incoming boats intercepted at the inspection stations), but imagine the tourist industry in Tahoe if the beaches were covered with Zebra mussels. I know we have Asian clams already... haven't seen any in person yet, just on the internet... they don't look that bad to me.
raymond phule

climber
Jun 29, 2013 - 02:24am PT

Seems it's shaping up to be one of the coldest summer seasons in Arctic history above 80 north.

How do you manage to often make a claim that is obviosly not backed up with your link?
mountainlion

Trad climber
California
Jun 29, 2013 - 03:09am PT
I like to read your take on the forests Ron--seems like you have a viewpoint that if you backed it up with citations or articles would be sound science...

I don't have a camera or I would post up a pick of a point that was given to me recently...also my grandfather made a few points of his own to see how they were made...also have a full blooded Cherokee as a grandfather but he married my grandmother after my mom's dad died long ago...

climate is going crazy with extreme weather events all around...hate to see the heat wave in the west with the fire season already in full swing...
dirtbag

climber
Jun 29, 2013 - 09:59am PT
^^^^^^^^^ ^^^^^^^^



Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
Jun 29, 2013 - 10:44am PT
Mtn Lion the things i speak of towards forestry are well known now. Backed by thirty some years of first hand study and observance. Theres bldngs full worth of literature, papers, studies so on and so forth in regards to forestry. 60% of all of it out there is pure horse excretion. I could post up many "papers" but theres no point to that. As its common knowledge these days. As much as folks talk about doing nothing to help CC, so goes our countries forests as well. Restrictions levied by govt through eco group pressure and politics has stifled our forests in a very negative manner.
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
And every fool knows, a dog needs a home, and...
Jun 29, 2013 - 10:48am PT
http://www.sacbee.com/2013/06/29/5533503/califs-sierra-a-living-lab-for.html

SEQUOIA NATIONAL FOREST, Calif. -- In parts of California's Sierra Nevada, marshy meadows are going dry, wildflowers are blooming earlier and glaciers are melting into ice fields.

Scientists also are predicting the optimal temperature zone for giant sequoias will rise hundreds and hundreds of feet, leaving trees at risk of dying over the next 100 years.

As indicators point toward a warming climate, scientists across 4 million acres of federally protected land are noting changes affecting everything from the massive trees that can grow to more than two-dozen feet across to the tiny, hamsterlike pika. But what the changes mean and whether humans should do anything to intervene are sources of disagreement among land managers.

"That's the tricky part of the debate: If humans are causing warming, does that obligate us under the laws of the National Park Service to try to counteract those effects?" said Nate Stephenson, a research ecologist with the U.S. Geological Survey.

"How do you adapt to a changing climate if you're a national park?" added Stephenson, who is 30 years into a study of trees in the largest wilderness in the continental U.S., Sequoia-Kings Canyon National Park.

Since 1895, the average temperature across California has increased by 1.7 degrees, and experts say the most visible effects of that warming occur within the Sierra Nevada, where low temperatures are rising and precipitation increasingly falls as rain rather than snow. Some models show noncoastal California warming by 2.7 degrees between 2000 and 2050, one of many reasons President Obama pledged last week to use executive powers to cut carbon pollution.

The state's two largest rivers - the Sacramento and San Joaquin - originate in the Sierra. The range also is home to Lake Tahoe, the largest alpine lake in North America; Mount Whitney, the highest peak in the Lower 48; and the nation's only groves of giant sequoias, the largest living things on earth.

There are mounting concerns about the beloved sequoias, whose sprawling, 10-foot-deep root systems make them especially vulnerable to drought and heat.

Because the trees exist only in such a small region, scientists are debating whether to irrigate the 65 groves in the southern Sierra to help them endure warmer temperatures. Otherwise they fear the trees could die. During the last warm, dry period 4,000 to 10,000 years ago, their numbers were greatly diminished, according to pollen evidence collected by researchers at Northern Arizona University.

"Whether we would water them certainly comes up on our climate change scenario planning," said Koren Nydick, science coordinator at Sequoia-Kings Canyon National Park. "They are a very unusual species because they're also looked on as a social artifact."

Stephenson says his decades of studying conifers in Sequoia National Forest have shown they are dying at twice their historic rate, partly because the climate is warmer and dryer. The giant sequoias grow much more slowly than conifers over many hundreds of years so changes have been tougher to recognize, though researchers suspect seedlings already may be having a harder time taking root.

"That's always the million-dollar question," said Stephenson, director of USGS's Sierra Nevada Global Change Research Program. "We just don't have a big enough sample size to know what's going on with the giant sequoias, whereas we monitor thousands of pines and firs and have much more confidence."

So far, the dozens of changes researchers have noted, in everything from earlier songbird fledging dates to greater wildfire intensity, may point to a warming climate. But it's far from understood whether that would mean doom or adaptation for California's ecological heart.

"I don't want to say that because we're seeing one thing, that's how it will play out," said Rob Klinger who is studying alpine mammals for the USGS's Western Ecological Research Center. "The endgame of our study is determining whether there will be uniform change or will it be patchwork. If you look at evolutionary time scales, species have gone through these changes before, and they handle it."

As part of a Ph.D. project at the University of California, Merced, Kaitlin Lubetkin for five summers has hiked the backcountry taking inventory of 350 subalpine meadows formed when glaciers retreated eons ago. The marshy ground acts as a reservoir that eases flooding after snow melts, and the stored water feeds streams during dry months and sustains wildlife such as the endangered willow flycatcher songbird and the Yosemite toad, which is being considered for threatened species status.

Over the past decade of warmer, drier conditions, however, pine trees have begun to take root, acting like straws to pull the moisture out of the meadows, Klinger and Lubetkin have observed.

"Pretty much right up to the tree line you're getting encroachment in every meadow," said Lubetkin.

In September, Hassan Basagic of the Glaciers of the American West Project will be hiking to 12,000 feet elevation to measure the Lyell Glacier in Yosemite National Park and monitor the changes he first began observing in the early 2000s. Scientists from Yosemite National Park and the University of Colorado recently noted that the glacier is no longer moving - and is melting - by using measurements they've made over the past four years, as well as some of Basagic's earlier work.

Basagic's used photos from the 1930s to show that in the early 2000s the rate at which the Sierra's glaciers were receding picked up.

"A lot of people call glaciers the 'canary in the coal mine.' They're an indicator that the alpine climate is changing," said Basagic, who monitors glacial changes for Portland State University research projects. "With that change, other things will change, like the plants and animals that depend on certain climatic conditions."

Already the American pika, a cold-loving rodent, is moving to higher elevations, and a U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service report says, "Climate change is a potential threat to the long-term survival."

The USGS's Klinger, however, said pikas might be more resilient than the wildlife service predicts. "It doesn't hibernate and it has dealt with expanding and contracting snow packs and changing temperatures - and yet it persists," Klinger said.

If the trends continue, some species are expected to adapt by finding more hospitable environments, scientists say. One potential place is Devil's Postpile National Monument in the eastern Sierra, where 40 data collection devices are showing that temperature inversions caused by atmospheric pressure are filling the region of steep canyons with colder air.

Scientists are studying whether other areas with similar features might serve as refuges for some species. They're looking at establishing seed banks in the 800-acre park where several climatic regions overlap and more than 400 plants, 100 birds and 35 animals coexist.

"We have an incredible living laboratory to understand what's happening with this cold air pool," said monument Superintendent Deanna Dulen. "We're really trying to get a good baseline of knowledge so we can look at the changes over time. We have the potential to be a refuge, but also to be a place of increased vulnerability. There's so much to learn."


Are sequoias the new spotted owl? I think Ron's tiresome schtick about spotted owls and polar bears does have some merit. Too bad he has to talk about it like Jethro Bodine.

Anyway, news and popular science writers, particularly those who try to ring the bell for climate change, seem to want to latch on to some highly visible and recognizable symbol to show the effects of warming and to issue dire warnings concerning the future of that thing.

The article above, pretty well written from my POV, is a good example; threatening the sequoias. I think that is a mistake.

Its a mistake because popularizing climate change this way dumbs down the entire topic and when folks stand up and repeatedly issue doom and gloom reports only to have them proven wrong, they look like fools and fool spreads easily, like a cold virus. Pretty soon the entire climate change body of science is smeared with fool grease because some writers and activists, who are not scientists themselves, have misspoken, over spoken, misrepresented or out and out fabricated seemingly scientific forecasts or warnings.

It is a mistake to attempt to defend such articles. But its also a mistake to conflate a bad article written by a non-scientist to the body of science itself. Since these articles are aimed at dumbing down a complex topic for general consumption, it is safe to assume many of the readers are too dumb to understand the nuance between writer and scientist.

But if any of you doubters ever have been part of a newspaper interview that included the technical details of climbing, you will know already just how fast a reporter can skew and even bludgeon technical details to death, BAM! We laugh when they mischaractetize something about climbing, rail when a dumb ass hiker gets the banner head line "Climber rescued blah blah blah" - HEY, HE'S NOT A CLIMBER!!! We shout in indignation.

Image how climate scientists must feel to see their body of work reduced to a paragraph and dismissed by a fake graph.

Don't fall for it, even if you ARE a dunmbass (and you don't know who you are, you're too dumb, but trust me, you're too dumb to separate the writer from the science).

DMT

rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jun 29, 2013 - 02:14pm PT
Yeah Chief they will always twist any data or anomaly to validate their hysterical narrative. The facts are these guys don't live in Alaska and are ignorant to what is happening here and in high lattitudes around the planet. In Alaska, it was true that we warmed up considerably during the nineties with spring arriving earlier and fall later for nearly a decade. They are still talking about this event as if it is still occuring and the permafrost still melting rapidly. What's actually happening is a distinct cooling trend with 19 out of 20 official weather stations measuring on average a 2.4 f decline in temps over the last decade. We've had some very nasty winters of late, this year being the longest lasting in history around the globe at high lattitudes in spite of being in a point in the orbital and axial cycles where winter should be several days shorter than the mean in the northern hemisphere-exactly what we saw in the nineties. What will not be measured or reported until years later is that the total glacial mass in the state is increasing in response to the long, severe winters and on average cool summers of the last decade. Another thing that was buried beneath an avalanche of CAGW spin was that 2012's low sea ice extent was largely due to a couple of unusual Arctic wind storm events, not relentless rising heat, and that the total volume of sea ice loss last year did not match the loss of extent, it was forced into more localized areas of increased mass. Another thing buried under spin this last spring was that the amount of new sea ice formed over the 2012-2013 winter season was one of the highest extents in recorded history. I'm getting close to having collected enough information to refute this whole phony business in the mind of any sane layperson if i wanted to spend the time to write it out long form in the elaborate and coherent fashion it needs.
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