Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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The Chief

climber
Climber from the Land Mongols under the Whites
May 25, 2013 - 07:20pm PT
Now back to the waste of tax payers (millions) moneys in the climate modelling scam. Of course those here who pray daily to them models will instantly object.

“Funding of multi-decadal regional climate predictions by the National Science Foundation which cannot be verified in terms of accuracy is not only a poor use of tax payer funds, but is misleading policymakers and others on the actual skill that exists in predicting changes [in the climate] in the future.”
R.A. Pielke Sr

The Failure Of Dynamic Downscaling As Adding Value to Multi-Decadal Regional Climate Prediction
The main issues, as I summarize from our paper are:

1. As a necessary condition for an accurate prediction, the multi-decadal global climate model simulations must include all first-order climate forcings and feedbacks. However, they do not [see for example: NRC, 2005; Pielke Sr. et al., 2009].

2. These global multi-decadal predictions are unable to skillfully simulate major atmospheric circulation features such the Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO], the North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO], El Niño and La Niña, and the South Asian monsoon [Pielke Sr., 2010; Annamalai et al., 2007].

3. While dynamic regional downscaling yield higher spatial resolution, the regional climate models are strongly dependent on the lateral boundary conditions and interior nudging by their parent global models [e.g., see Rockel et al., 2008]. Large-scale climate errors in the global models are retained and could even be amplified by the higher spatial resolution regional models.

4. Since as reported, the global multi-decadal climate model predictions cannot accurately predict circulation features such as the PDO, NAO, El Niño, and La Niña [Compo et al., 2011] they cannot provide accurate lateral boundary conditions and interior nudging to the regional climate models.

5. The regional models themselves do not have the domain scale (or two-way interaction) to skillfully predict these larger-scale atmospheric features.

6. There is also only one-way interaction between regional and global models which is not physically consistent. If the regional model significantly alters the atmospheric and/or ocean circulations, there is no way for this information to alter the larger-scale circulation features which are being fed into the regional model through the lateral boundary conditions and nudging.

7. When higher spatial analyses of land use and other forcings are considered in the regional domain, the errors and uncertainty from the larger model still persists thus rendering the added complexity and details ineffective [Ray et al. 2010; Mishra et al. 2010].

8. The lateral boundary conditions for input to regional downscaling require regional-scale information from a global forecast model. However the global model does not have this regional-scale information due to its limited spatial resolution. This is, however, a logical paradox since the regional model needs something that can only be acquired by a regional model (or regional observations). Therefore, the acquisition of lateral boundary conditions with the needed spatial resolution becomes logically impossible.

Finally, There is sometimes an incorrect assumption that although global climate models cannot predict future climate change as an initial value problem, they can predict future climate statistics as a boundary value problem [Palmer et al., 2008]. With respect to weather patterns, for the downscaling regional (and global) models to add value over and beyond what is available from the historical, recent paleo-record, and worse case sequence of days, however, they must be able to skillfully predict the changes in the regional weather statistics.

There is only value for predicting climate change, however, if they could skillfully predict the changes in the statistics of the weather and other aspects of the climate system. There is no evidence, however, that the model can predict changes in these climate statistics even in hindcast. As highlighted in Dessai et al. [2009] the finer and time-space based downscaled information can be “misconstrued as accurate”, but the ability to get this finer-scale information does not necessarily translate into increased confidence in the downscaled scenario [Wilby, 2010].


Pielke Sr., R.A., R. Wilby, D. Niyogi, F. Hossain, K. Dairuku, J. Adegoke, G. Kallos, T. Seastedt, and K. Suding, 2011: Dealing with complexity and extreme events using a bottom-up, resource-based vulnerability perspective.
BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
May 25, 2013 - 07:21pm PT
There was a CO2 forced hothouse event as Pangea broke up in the later Mesozoic, which was a time of great vulcanism. You can find Cretaceous dinosaur and temperate flora fossils in Arctic Alaska, and at the time of deposition the fossil beds were closer to the magnetic pole than they are now. Yes, we know how to measure the latitude where rocks were deposited through time using paleomag data. It is very valuable information if used properly.

That event has been well studied, so I will describe it in short posts. It is extremely relevant to the CO2 increase today, because we have a very good idea of CO2 concentrations at that point in time.

First, I must set the stage here, and I'm not sure if I will have enough free time to argue with these two fellows.

Chief. Do you even believe in science? I remember you saying that God turned on all of the lights in our universe at the same time, and the time it took for light to travel to our telescopes (or instrument, as you prefer) was instantly created.

You also seem to have a hard time with people who go to college. Didn't you say as much? I want this clear because we are getting into a lot of really new science here, and all you are concentrating on is statistics and how to misuse them. Don't worry. This is very common unless you are used to working with numbers, so ignorance in this area is forgiveable. Ed basically just gave you a lesson in the statistics of small numbers, which is meaningless. Statistics improve as the dataset grows.

I'm not trying to be mean.

So I'm setting the stage for a scientific argument here with Rick and The Chief. Anyone else is free to step in.

Does anyone know what the troposphere is?
wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
May 25, 2013 - 07:25pm PT
Yes.
BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
May 25, 2013 - 07:43pm PT
Does anyone know what this is:

Credit: BASE104

rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
May 25, 2013 - 07:45pm PT
No come on now Basey, remember you are not talking to me anymore? Besides you refused to allow the heresy of answer to my questions passing your lips, so to speak.

Anyway Mama, bless her heart, has me doing the delayed spring cleanup and roto tilling of compost into our king size and hugely productive garden so i don't have much time till later.

Our ever vigilant friend Ron (where is he by the way?) sent me this link to post. I think we've all seen it before but it is still useful in refreshing closed minds.

http://www.petitionproject.org/review_article.php
wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
May 25, 2013 - 07:49pm PT
BASE,Great test ,you know they wont engage in basic science.
They know so much more.



The Chief

climber
Climber from the Land Mongols under the Whites
May 25, 2013 - 07:55pm PT
Oh my, off with his head. Banish him forever. Forever!

Alien Planets Could Shed Light on Earth's Climate Future


Understanding climate change

Jim Green, NASA’s Planetary Science Division Director, said that one goal is to examine a variety of planetary bodies as a system, to see if there are trends or similarities. He also pointed out that from a planetary scientist’s perspective, climate change on our planet is not a new thing.

"Earth’s climate has done nothing but change," Green said.

Michael Meyer, lead scientist for the Mars Exploration Program at NASA Headquarters, also pointed out that we should never become complacent in our scientific understanding. For instance, he said that while climate models have not been able to make early Mars warm enough to sustain liquid water on its surface, the same can be true for models of the young Earth.
http://news.yahoo.com/alien-planets-could-shed-light-earths-climate-future-132541702.html


I remember you saying that God turned on all of the lights in our universe at the same time

Never wrote anything of the sorts. I do not believe in a creator. Rather that the Universe has no beginning nor end. It is the ultimate power. It is infinite and has not concept of time. Beginning nor end. Black and White Holes substantiate my belief. That is a whole different ball game on the other side of them holes. Holes that we humans have absolutely no idea what they hold on their other sides. None. Zero. Only some mathematical human perceptions that are constantly disputed amongst one an other of those experts math formula generators.
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
May 25, 2013 - 08:00pm PT
That looks like a tephigram. Are you going to start talking about tornados?
The Chief

climber
Climber from the Land Mongols under the Whites
May 25, 2013 - 08:04pm PT
Science is human. Climate change on earth is not, regardless the "forcing".
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
May 25, 2013 - 08:06pm PT
shut up Chief. Where you going with the tephigram?
The Chief

climber
Climber from the Land Mongols under the Whites
May 25, 2013 - 08:08pm PT
Kay: Weather (tephigram) is not Climate. Remember.
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
May 25, 2013 - 08:09pm PT
I thought I told you to shut up

Anyway, I think that is a thephi, which plots the capacity for instability through a vertical slice of atmosphere. Its really cool as any para gliders will tell you. I don't know why a geologist would know much about them unless of course you live in Tornado alley
The Chief

climber
Climber from the Land Mongols under the Whites
May 25, 2013 - 08:18pm PT
How bout you fk off. K.

Tephigram. Is weather forecasting, not climate. We all know how accurate that is. Weather forecasting that is. NOAA forecasted an above avg snow year in the Sierra back in Oct of 2012. Not. They forecasted a below normal snow fall year in Oct of 2010. Not. Record year. On and on. Oh the forecasting/models.
McHale's Navy

Trad climber
Panorama City, California & living in Seattle
May 25, 2013 - 08:18pm PT
This is a little off topic so please forgive me. For along time after the BP Gulf I'll spill I tried to find information on what happened to the many Sperm Whales in the area. There was a news blackout in regards to it. Apparently Americans have to use the Freedom of Information Act to see photos of dead whales;
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/24/sperm-whale-dead-gulf-of-mexico-bp-oil-spill_n_2010221.

I remember reading an account about turtles, dolphins and whales being burned en masse. I'll bet we never see those photos. We are supposed to think one whale died and the rest 'migrated'. Yeah, they migrated to Hell before they went to Heaven.

This cover up could probably be attributed to the power of BP rather than NOAA. At the time, ALL reporting STOPPED after the discovery of the first dead whale.
The Chief

climber
Climber from the Land Mongols under the Whites
May 25, 2013 - 08:20pm PT
^^^^^^^^ And what are you using as your primary source of travel MacnavY?^^^^^


Oh the hypocrisy. Fill it up.
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
May 25, 2013 - 08:21pm PT
well so what if it is? Shut the hell up for a change and lets hear what he's got to say
The Chief

climber
Climber from the Land Mongols under the Whites
May 25, 2013 - 08:24pm PT
OK. For you K. I am off to watch the first day of practice at the IOMTT.
McHale's Navy

Trad climber
Panorama City, California & living in Seattle
May 25, 2013 - 08:28pm PT
^^^^^^^^ And what are you using as your primary source of travel MacnavY?^^^^^

Travel? Whether or not anyone uses gasoline is not the point of this thread. The point of the thread is what the effects of using gasoline and other fuels are. I'm sure I use far less oil than many do.

Apparently we can't talk about hundreds of Sperm Whale deaths, perhaps over 1,000, and the cover-up of same during the Gulf Oil Spill, because we use oil. Americans don't want to know the consequences of their actions, or rather, somebody else made that decision for them.
BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
May 25, 2013 - 08:32pm PT
Rick! I have always wanted to read the famous paper that was published in The Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons! I always see these conservatives citing that paper in that journal, but have never had the link to the actual article. You really need to Google that publication up and read about its reputation. Wiki really has them by the nuts.

OK. I knew that I needed a little background on this article, because I see it used in different ways. I have never heard of the journal in any other place. I've never seen any article referenced from any article published by the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons.

The wiki page was VERY interesting. I've never seen a journal described in this way:

I wanted to check out the publication first, because there are good publications and there are lousy publications which have crappy reviewers. I know the best Geology publications and I'm sure that Ed knows the best Physics journals. It is a feather in your cap to be published in the major journals, which every person in the field will see and possibly refute. Papers get refuted all of the time, and this is just a part of the process. It sucks to be wrong, though. The physical sciences progress and things change, though.

OK. The AAPS is a sham organization which reportedly (by Wikipedia) holds different "positions." A journal shouldn't have positions, but scientists or even groups, such as the National Academy of Sciences can get together and publish positions. They can certainly be shot down, so they are fairly rare, such as their position that AGW is real. This is the National Academy of Scientists, not the Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons, who dabbles in HIV not causing AIDS, and other really pathetic positions, mainly political or religious in nature, rather than pure science. From what I learned in 15 minutes, the Journal isn't recognized anywhere as a peer reviewed journal. I haven't checked them all, but found this:

An editorial in Chemical & Engineering News described JPandS as a "purveyor of utter nonsense."[63] Investigative journalist Brian Deer wrote that the journal is the "house magazine of a right-wing American fringe group [AAPS]" and "is barely credible as an independent forum."[64

That is on their wiki page. Apparently this journal exists for the purpose of getting anti science positions a "peer reviewed" stamp of approval.

It gets even better:

After the petition appeared, the National Academy of Sciences said in a 1998 news release that "The NAS Council would like to make it clear that this petition has nothing to do with the National Academy of Sciences and that the manuscript was not published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences or in any other peer-reviewed journal."[31] It also said "The petition does not reflect the conclusions of expert reports of the Academy." The NAS further noted that its own prior published study had shown that "even given the considerable uncertainties in our knowledge of the relevant phenomena, greenhouse warming poses a potential threat sufficient to merit prompt responses. Investment in mitigation measures acts as insurance protection against the great uncertainties and the possibility of dramatic surprises."[31]

Robinson responded in a 1998 article in Science, "I used the Proceedings as a model, but only to put the information in a format that scientists like to read, not to fool people into thinking it is from a journal."[30] A 2006 article the magazine Vanity Fair stated: "Today, Seitz admits that 'it was stupid' for the Oregon activists to copy the academy's format. Still, he doesn't understand why the academy felt compelled to disavow the petition, which he continues to cite as proof that it is "not true" there is a scientific consensus on global warming".[32]

I will read the article this evening.

Hey. I made it into the New Yorker today. Only the online version so far...
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
May 25, 2013 - 08:47pm PT
Base - I don't know where you were going with the tephi but it made me think of something I was wondering about. If the warming of the airmass is largely limited to the lower layer as I saw somewhere was suggested, then there will be an increased temperature gradient and thus greater instability potential, at least for that layer. This, to my mind anyway, suggests perhaps a greater likelyhood of strong thunderstorm cells and tornados. You being from Ohio maybe know how to answer this?
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