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BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
May 25, 2013 - 02:59pm PT
Rick,

If you just click on the wiki link and put a dictionary in your lap, you will see that we are in a cooling period of the milankovitch cycles.

Those cycles are what we use to tie rises and falls in sea level to sequence boundaries in petroleum geology. Billions of dollars in private research is devoted to this very topic.

This is my last discourse with Rick. He isn't worth my time. I'm too busy to talk to a willfully ignorant person.

Willful ignorance is when you don't bother to learn on purpose. Plane old ignorance is fine, and we all have it, but if you want to chat science, you need to take it upon yourself to learn some basics. You don't need to go get a degree or anything, you just need to stop getting your science from people like Glen Beck.
McHale's Navy

Trad climber
Panorama City, California & living in Seattle
May 25, 2013 - 03:22pm PT
You guys are losing this debate so will the possible converts step forward to talk terms of surrender and the degree of extortion required to gain your allegiance.

Interesting that you have to continually post this Rick. My guess is that it's your only line - somebody else writes the remainder of what you post. It's surely a sign that you feel like YOU HAVE already lost. Possible converts? That's pretty funny. Sign up here!
The Chief

climber
Climber from the Land Mongols under the Whites
May 25, 2013 - 03:24pm PT
I was a little depressed last night Chief and not so anymore.The utopians are self destructing.

Right ON! Amazing how they ALWAYS want to see the "paper". They can not take the evidence/data for what it states at face value. Just like lawyers I tell ya. Gotta always see the legal ref or cite a prior judgement. Just can not take the evidence as it is. Clear and right in their face. The decline according to HadCrut4 from 2003 to present is right there. No paper BASE. Go to the METOFFICE and it is smack right on the "Home" page.


http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/HadCRUT4.png

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/#sciref

McHale's Navy

Trad climber
Panorama City, California & living in Seattle
May 25, 2013 - 03:36pm PT
Just talking about air temps all the time shows a general misunderstanding of the subject. It's like pointing out that somebody is picking their nose.....and completely leaving out that they are eating the pickings!
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
May 25, 2013 - 03:44pm PT
Willful ignorance
A dirty dozen gems about
Denialism



Willful ignorance is the state and practice of ignoring any sensory input that appears to contradict one’s inner model of reality. At heart, it is almost certainly driven by confirmation bias.
It differs from the standard definition of “ignorance“ — which just means that one is unaware of something — in that willfully ignorant people are fully aware of facts, resources and sources, but refuse to acknowledge them. Indeed, calling someone "ignorant" shouldn’t really be a pejorative, but intentional and willful ignorance is an entirely different matter. In practice though, the word "ignorance" has often come to mean "willfull ignorance", and indeed, in many non-English languages, the word based on the same stem actually carries that meaning.
Depending on the nature and strength of an individual’s pre-existing beliefs, willful ignorance can manifest itself in different ways. The practice can entail completely disregarding established facts, evidence and/or reasonable opinions if they fail to meet one’s expectations. Often excuses will be made, stating that the source is unreliable, that the experiment was flawed or the opinion is too biased. More often than not this is simple circular reasoning: “I cannot agree with that source because it is untrustworthy because it disagrees with me”.
In other cases, slightly more extreme cases, willful ignorance can involve outright refusal to read, hear or study, in any way, anything that does not conform to the person’s worldview. With regard to oneself, this can even extend to fake locked-in syndrome with complete unresponsiveness. Or with regard to others, to outright censorship of the material from others.
Contents [hide]
1 Examples of willful ignorance
2 Causes and treatment
3 See also
4 External links
[edit]Examples of willful ignorance

This is some suggested reading for willful ignorance:

Creationism - Often absolute denial of transitional fossils. Statements like “there are no transitional fossils” come as if they’re facts from the mouths of creation scientists. Actual scientists, however, would beg to differ.

Conservapædia - Well known for it, in fact.

A Storehouse of Knowledge - As creationists, above.

Expelled: Leader's Guide - Intentional misrepresentations of evolution throughout. They still insist on outright falsehoods such as “Darwinism caused the holocaust”, refusing to consider the blatant facts that this is not only wrong, but would be irrelevant even if it were true.
[edit]


Causes and treatment

Readers should be aware that willful ignorance is a mechanism that actually protects the brain from becoming unable to function in situations that it just can’t handle. An individual can never accept its whole own reality being meaningless or making no sense, as that would make it impossible to act towards any goal. Forcing an individual into such a state has psychologically been found to be comparable to the death of the higher developed parts of the brain from an outside perspective.

This means that the morally right way to treat such individuals is not to look down upon, ridicule or attack them, but to help them to be able to accept reality again. This is most easily accomplished by offering a way to transition without having to give up their own pride and sense of reality, by starting out with the individual's own model of reality, and then slowly walking the way towards actual observed reality by fitting every piece inside of it in a sensible fashion that offers improved abilities to predict the future (which should not be hard, since that is by definition guaranteed).

Example: The Catholic church slowly progressing from a concept of “God decides what happens next. We have to propitiate him.” to “God created the laws of physics and logic.” Which allows them to think in terms of logic and physics, while still not calling their old concepts bad, and so come to harmony with reality again.

Unfortunately, there often comes a time where entrenched willful ignorance just cannot be tolerated or babied anymore and it's better for society (and the "victim") to just buck up and force the truth down their gullet. See the long-term failure of Reconstruction versus the much more successful attempts of de-nazification. It's often up to the rationalist to evaluate whether the cause that's being fought for is too urgent to spare the feelings/self-esteem of the willfully ignorant. Beware the backfire effect though.
[edit]See also

Cognitive dissonance
Confirmation bias
Ignorance
Faith
Intellectual honesty
Upton Sinclair's Law
[edit]External links




From Rational wiki.
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
mammoth lakes ca
May 25, 2013 - 04:02pm PT
Weschrist...How did you get The Chief to pose on that dirt-bike...? Sick..!
mechrist

Gym climber
South of Heaven
May 25, 2013 - 04:27pm PT
He does do a mean doughnut!

Rumor has it he used to blow bubbles back in the day too...

rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
May 25, 2013 - 04:48pm PT
Base, i dont know what to say, i guess im broken hearted. Anyway Base probably didn't want to answer the questions because we are at a point in the small orbital eccentricity cycle that makes winters in the northern hemisphere several days shorter. He also knows quite well the effects of basaltic volcanic eruptions. Here is just one.

http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=7545&tid=28

McHale's Navy

Trad climber
Panorama City, California & living in Seattle
May 25, 2013 - 05:13pm PT
This is totally normal - don't need no stinkin hurricane;
http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2013/05/25/186614078/flooding-brings-san-antonio-to-standstill-kills-one?ft=1&f=1001
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
May 25, 2013 - 05:19pm PT
Ode to the Chief




The Chief

climber
Climber from the Land Mongols under the Whites
May 25, 2013 - 05:20pm PT
ED ED ED.

You are missing the point. 2003 to current. Not 1850 to date. Not 1976 to date. Not 1945 to date. Use 2003 to date. That is ten years of time. The last ten years. There has NOT been any warming according to RSS, UAH and HadCrut REAL TIME data. Forget "variability" ED. Fact is the warming trend Globally has stalled according to the data from those three surface and satellite data collecting entities. Period. That is reality.

Let's make it easy for you and the rest that do not want to look at the point at hand. Instead of using of either 1850 or 1976 as the starting point. Use 2003 for HadCrut and 1999 for both RSS and UAH. Combine the three, the warming has stalled and even begun a downward trend from 2003. 2003 ED. Get it.

Now, refute the data of all three entities from 2003 onward. NOT 1850 or 1976. Plot the data (RSS, UAH & HadCrut) from 2003 to date. Let's see what you come up with.

mechrist

Gym climber
South of Heaven
May 25, 2013 - 05:43pm PT
You are missing the point. 2003 to current.

Yeah Ed, you are missing the point. 2003 to current is relevant because The Chaff says so. The whole GCC debate hinges on what happened since 2003. Apparently 2003 was chosen because natural trends are only applicable at decadal time scales... and the only changes we care about are from the LAST decade.

Anything before that can ONLY be used to support the position that there is variability, therefore there is no GCC.

Anything after that can ONLY be used to support the position that temperature is going down, therefore there is no GCC.

Don't you get it Ed? There is no GCC because Chaff says so. Period. Simple. Done.


Instead of using of either 1850 or 1976 as the starting point. Use 2003 for HadCrut and 1999 for both RSS and UAH.

Yes, instead of looking at the longest record available... cherry pick some arbitrary years that support your position and start there. This method is particularly useful when you don't understand how the data was collected or exactly what was being measured.

That's how science works after all.
monolith

climber
SF bay area
May 25, 2013 - 05:55pm PT
But these goes to eleven!

rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
May 25, 2013 - 06:02pm PT
Yes Chief their degree of circular reasoning makes them so dizzy they can't see the forest for the trees.

Bruce-we are denialists of what-something that has not happened, and as mounting evidence shows, will not happen anywhere near the extent predicted by CAGW worship.Take a deep breath to oxygenate and look at the CAGW generated graphs The Chief is posting buddy.

Ed, you do of course agree our sun is a variable star, don't you? Where is proof of longer term cycles where the currently recognized degree of variability is temporally extended at least, if not heightened-well look under those "smoothed" out graphs for the real extent of change of periods like The little ice age, The Medieval warm period, The Dark ages, The Roman Warm period, etc. etc. Are historical accounts allowed as proxies,are non cherry picked tree ring data allowed as proxies,is carbon 14 calendrical readjustment allowed as proxies, etc. etc. ?
Norton

Social climber
the Wastelands
May 25, 2013 - 06:05pm PT
This thread has been LEBified

resistance is futile



The Chief

climber
Climber from the Land Mongols under the Whites
May 25, 2013 - 06:14pm PT
Yes Chief their degree of circular reasoning makes them so dizzy they can't see the forest for the trees.

Not even that Mr. Sumner. They are far to busy evaluating where the trees may have come from. Whether a natural or human planting process. Then discounting any that "may" be out of place and "could have" been planted from human hands. In other words, too busy with the proverbial "Got to follow the consensus" blinders that are sutred to their temples. Do you expect anything less from any Utopian.
new world order2

climber
May 25, 2013 - 06:47pm PT
Hi Ed H.

Care to post your thoughts on Monsanto, and GMO food, on the newly created Pull ups against Monsanto, thread
McHale's Navy

Trad climber
Panorama City, California & living in Seattle
May 25, 2013 - 07:02pm PT
I don't know if there are any out there, but being a being a comedian doing a Climate Change Skeptic routine could be a hit.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
May 25, 2013 - 07:06pm PT
Any converts yet?

Yes McHale this IS funny.
McHale's Navy

Trad climber
Panorama City, California & living in Seattle
May 25, 2013 - 07:13pm PT
Makes me wish I was a comic.
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