Climate Change skeptics? [ot]


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Trad climber
Lee, NH
Jul 24, 2013 - 01:55pm PT
On a more positive note, just looked through the latest issue of Eos and found this:

Tropical storm Sandy was a 1-in-700-year event
Using information of tropical cyclone tracks for the whole North Atlantic from 1950 to 2010, Hall and Sobel calculated the odds that a similar storm—a category 1 or higher hurricane with an approach angle to New Jersey at least as close to perpendicular as Sandy—could happen again. According to the authors’ statistical model, the occurrence rate of a Sandy- style storm is 0.0014 per year, meaning that if future hurricane activity matches the recent past, a storm like Sandy could be expected on average about once every 700 years.

The fact that Sandy happened, the authors say, means either that New York and New Jersey were very unlucky or that climate change has increased the probability of a Sandy- like storm beyond what they found with their steady- climate statistical model.

(Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1002/grl.50395, 2013)

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Jul 24, 2013 - 02:03pm PT
And from last week's Eos (I'm just catching up), this note:

Decade of climate extremes

The first decade of the 21st century was the warmest decade recorded since modern measurements began around 1850, according to a 3 July report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). In addition, a pronounced increase in the global temperature occurred over the 4 decades between 1971 and 2010.

The report, The Global Climate 2001–2010: A Decade of Climate Extremes, also noted that the decade of 2001–2010 was marked by dramatic climate and weather extremes, including the European heat wave of 2003; floods in Pakistan in 2010; Hurricane Katrina, which hit the U.S. Gulf Coast in 2005; and long-term droughts in the Amazon Basin, Australia, and East Africa. “Many of these events and trends can be explained by the natural variability of the climate system. Rising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, however, are also affecting the climate. Detecting the respective roles being played by climate variability and humanity- induced climate change is one of the key challenges facing researchers today,” the report states.

“WMO’s report shows that global warming was significant from 1971 to 2010 and that the decadal rate of increase between 1991–2000 and 2001–2010 was unprecedented,” said WMO secretary- general Michel Jarraud. “Rising concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases are changing our climate, with far- reaching implications for our environment and our oceans, which are absorbing both carbon dioxide and heat.”

Gym climber
Topic Author's Reply - Jul 24, 2013 - 02:29pm PT
This is just too darn funny to not repost:

Unfortunately though, he's hitched his horse to the wrong wagon here. The wheels are coming off and the new natural world models are passing him by.

Hahahaha, the wheels are coming off... What a joke. But what do you expect from a person who can only put value into their preset beliefs.

Rick, time to take a good look at why you believe what you do, because it doesn't seem to be based in the reality as we folks on Earth experience it.

But do carry on, it provides my day with some good chuckles.

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Jul 24, 2013 - 04:48pm PT
Ron, what exactly did you say about the jet stream, that earned you accusations of silliness?

Here's something on the general topic that I (and a coauthor) said recently:

"Recent studies explore links between Arctic warming and mid-latitude winters or weather extremes (Screen and Simon 2013), including the dramatic experience of Superstorm Sandy (Greene et al. 2013). Decreased summer Arctic sea-ice extent has been linked to the development of high-amplitude wave patterns during winter, increasing the frequency cold weather outbreaks across the mid-latitudes (Overland and Wang 2010; Francis and Vavrus 2012; Tang et al. 2013). Observations also indicate a connection between amplified wave patterns driven by changes in Arctic climate and increased early winter snowfall, early snow melt, extreme summer heat and drought (Francis and Vavrus 2012; Greene and Monger 2012; Greene et al. 2013; Liu et al. 2012; Petoukhov et al. 2012)."

Social climber
the Wastelands
Jul 24, 2013 - 05:05pm PT
you found someone with respected credentials that agrees, Chief!

but even a blind squirrel finds an acorn from time to time....

how does presenting this Judith person magically negate the consensus of the majority of Climate Scientist?

I wanna go to the Island for race week before I croak, Chief..

SF bay area
Jul 24, 2013 - 05:52pm PT
Not much of a pause, once you remove some of the natural variability.

Social climber
Jul 24, 2013 - 06:41pm PT
“Words of warning wisdom from Real Climate Scientist and not some ST fanatic left wing zealot "Nailers".”

Judith A. Curry is the chairman of the School of Earth and Atmospheric
Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology

She gets her funding from the Koch brothers: Stupid. Spreads disinformation just like you.

Then again maybe they are paying you to spread the disinformation.

Which is it? Stupid or for the Koch brothers.

Social climber
Jul 24, 2013 - 09:30pm PT
Just like where you have to chase the money the same with who or whom is behind all the crap that comes out in election time or anything: is it left leaning or right leaning there is nothing in-between; use to be something years ago “the middle” but not the case anymore.

Just punch her name and put the Brotheeeeers next to it a few things will come up.

You can start here:

Ok! I will give you a break:

Wonder if NSA kept the files as well, no they have their own secret Data system for watching.

Whole section devoted for just these two guys, their daddy who helped create the John Birch Society should be in there somewhere but everyone knows that already:

But if you need; I think I just found it:

Richard Muller, Charles Koch, Judith Curry and the implosion of the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature Study
By Joe Romm on Feb 14, 2011 at 3:45 pm ClimateProgress

How to kill a potentially not-bad idea in 5 easy steps

Who in hell is Berkeley Earth

Opps still does not show the donors:

They go by Anonymous donors as well

Gates name there as well he has all his products made in China why pollute the US. He wants or is creating new tech for cleaner nuclear reactors.

Ice climber
the ghost
Jul 24, 2013 - 09:44pm PT
you can lead a mule to water but you can't make him think

Gym climber
Topic Author's Reply - Jul 24, 2013 - 10:18pm PT
The House of Climate Science Cards are a crumbling.

Wait for the next IPCC report to come out around Sept., and you won't be singing that song, The Chief.

But then again, you'll toss out the whole lot from real climate scientists because what do they know, right?

Good thing the Koch brothers are funding some real research, everybody else is just in it for the money.

Social climber
the Wastelands
Jul 24, 2013 - 10:29pm PT
Guys, the Chief knows all this

he is just having fun jerking your chains

he agrees with all the findings, he just doesn't agree that humans can or should be doing anything about it, especially given that any resources be better put to use to immediately mitigate human misery

he is trolling for his own entertainment, he has said so


Mountain climber
Jul 25, 2013 - 12:24am PT
The Chief - study up, dude!

edit - The Chief (down arrow) - I knew you'd appreciate this :) you do have a sense of humour!

btw. Brutus represented for the E Bay !!! EBMUD, baby!

Sport climber
mammoth lakes ca
Jul 25, 2013 - 12:29am PT
Kunlan..Chief smokes his own home grown...?

Mountain climber
Jul 25, 2013 - 12:40am PT
Bruce, don't waste your time with this guy. Not worth it.

Sorry you didn't make it to the Squam festival on the weekend.

rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jul 25, 2013 - 12:45am PT
Ed says, "but maybe I missed something"
Yes apparently you have missed reams of science papers by astrophysicists offering mechanisms with possible effects far beyond the measly 0.1 TSI variance accounted for in the farsical IPCC models. To begin with the 0.1 variance comes from satellite observation during the most pronounced solar maximum in 8000 years which just happened to coincide with the 77-98 run up in global temps. Their is some indication, from interpretation by serious astrophysicists, that their was as much as a 0.4 difference in TSI from the depths of the little ice age to the late twentieth century.You take this level of variance over decades and it adds up. Second the UV spectrum varies by up to 6-8 % during the typical cycle and energetic flares aimed earthward can easily double this value. Ozone in the stratosphere intercept this radiation but not without some of the energy being transferred down into the troposphere affecting atmospheric circulation. Other solar mechanisms of climate change the IPCC GCM's ignore are very pronounced variations in the energy and velocity of the solar wind and magnetic flux and its affects in increased/reduced radiation at the poles. Not to mention the increase/reductions of the solar magnetic field and the rate of earthward cosmic ray bombardment and subsequent rates of cloud nucleation resulting in albedo changes in the 2% range. The Sun is the primary driver of climate change on planet Earth. For the GCM's to not explore all its effects and range of variation is a crime but the only way they could attribute CAGW and the mythical molecule CO2 properties and production as primarily human caused. And this doesn't even begin to go into the oceanic currents and oscillations, volcanisms, windblown particulates, galactic dust variability in our slow revolution around the galactic center, etc. etc.

Bruce, if you can't refrain from trash talking your vile line of shet perhaps it is time for a breather for you. You have been treated respectfully regardless of your hardline-return the favor.

Jul 25, 2013 - 01:11am PT
^^^^^^^^^ ^^^^^^^^


Mountain climber
Jul 25, 2013 - 02:22am PT
Ed wrote:
You are correct in your statement that the sun has the largest effect on the climate, though... it's variations are not sufficient to explain the climate changes we are observing.

And, AFAIK, they aren't sufficient to explain the RATE of changes we are observing.

Jul 25, 2013 - 03:43am PT
This thing has been going on for like 3 years - does the audience ever get to vote on this show?

Sample questions:

Do you believe in global warming?
Did any of the information presented change your mind?
Most awesome insult hurled?
Performer of the year?

[I'll tip my hand, Ed gets my vote there. He can take complicated scientific computation and explain it to the everyman. And I can't understand that either. But he's just so lovable! Isn't he?]

You guys are so smart - so when are you gonna monetize this sucker? Like a cage-match at Facelift with a couple bookies in the crowd? Jer-ry! Jer-ry! I can see it now. If you're down with global warming, hey, you might need a carbon credit to offset all this hot air.

Y'all are just having fun. Nothing wrong with that. Carry on.

Jul 25, 2013 - 09:53am PT
Right on Bruce.

That's why my usual response to willfully ignorant, Chief Running Mouth is the humping puking dogs. That's about all he deserves.
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
And every fool knows, a dog needs a home, and...
Jul 25, 2013 - 10:10am PT
The 1800s would be shocked to hear this as those are the years of the very worst wild fires ever recorded. Then the early 1900s would also be terribly butt hurt to hear the millions upon millions of acres that burned dont rate today..1910 was a HELL of a fire year, just ask IDAHO. Which nearly burnt 100%!

So if you want SUPER FIRES,, youll have too look BACK even before the industrial revolution.

Damn but do you argue in circles, lol.

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