Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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McHale's Navy

Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
Jul 2, 2013 - 05:33pm PT
Using the contemporary 'just in time' process of putting things together.
McHale's Navy

Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
Jul 2, 2013 - 05:42pm PT
Somewhere in there Chief, if I really put my mind to it, I could find where you are arguing against your own best interests.
McHale's Navy

Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
Jul 2, 2013 - 05:49pm PT
I'm not assuming too much. I mean that in a positive way. You are OK in my book! Hey, I just found my bike shorts and am going for a spin. Later!
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Jul 2, 2013 - 06:11pm PT
Please show me ONE VEGAN CERT'd product that is not also GMO Free Cert'd as well.

Vegan foods don't need to be certified 'vegan'.

Didya know that conventional apples and oranges are vegan foods? Do they need to be certified 'vegan'?

GMO corn, soybeans and papayas are vegan.

Jebus you are stupid Chief.
Dr. Christ

Mountain climber
State of Mine
Jul 2, 2013 - 06:11pm PT
Please show me ONE VEGAN CERT'd product that is not also GMO Free Cert'd as well.

Look at that... the chuffer centering his drivel on some CERT process... ones he knows absolutely nothing about. How surprising.

http://www.vegangmo.com/?page_id=655
kev

climber
A pile of dirt.
Jul 2, 2013 - 06:14pm PT
Repost AKA Still waiting the R. Sumner reply

Anyway, if you take into account the orbital and axial cycles, the fact we came out of a grand minima of solar activity coinciding with the little ice age, to the mid to late 20th century grand maxima of solar activity, then throw in fluctuations of oceanic cycles of differing frequency you can easily explain the 0.7 c global temp increase of the 20th century with only a feeble anthropogenic contribution.

This seems like you're leaving it as an exercise to the reader. That would be fine if we all had a background in this area. Hell it's typical in textbooks given that the reader has the appropriate background.

HOWEVER, very few of us here are climate scientists. For those of us that don't would/could you please fill in the details especially since you claim one can
easily explain
this? I'd like to see it spelled out with things that someone with a good undergraduate science background should be able to understand - equations, their basis, their solutions, and reasons for approximations used. Additionally if the approximations or equations are non standard please rigorously justify this. Lets say you keep it to a multivariate calculus level (you claimed it was easy, even implied trivial).

Since you claim it can be done easily you should be able to put it together as simple lecture notes in less than an hour or so...Sh#t if it's that trivial this shouldn't take you more than 15 minutes...Unless you can't, and then I wonder what that means?

kev
sandstone conglomerate

climber
sharon conglomerate central
Jul 2, 2013 - 06:19pm PT
Grow your own fukin food. That way you know where it comes from. Hunt, fish, provide for yourself. GMO my ass. If you rely on others to provide for your existence, you have no room to bitch
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Jul 2, 2013 - 08:01pm PT
In reply to JGill's question about how the poor and middle class will pay for potential carbon taxes:
the best way is to reduce income taxes (on earned income only) so the new tax is not a new tax at all; it is revenue neutral.
Earlier I said in my opinion it would be revenue neutral; I meant it "should" be revenue neutral. That is the only way it could get through Congress anyway, since it removes the argument that it's a "new" tax.

Should we subsidize fossil fuel for anyone?: Absolutely NOT. Subsidies for special groups just ruin a simple system, people will game the system, just like carbon credits. Fuel users will need to examine the many ways to cope, and stop depending on it. We can phase in the additional fuel tax over a few years.

We do need to be aware of the offshoring of fossil fuel use. If countries such as China do not follow our lead on such a tax within 3 years, we will have to add a fossil fuel equalizer tax to all imports from such countries. That is how a workable world treaty on greenhouse gases would have to be written.

There are many ways that we could save fuel, esp in the long run. Batteries continue to improve yearly. Use in vehicles for now, and once they get even cheaper they can store the power from the solar on rooftops.
http://www.electronicproducts.com/Power_Products/Batteries_and_Fuel_Cells/Engineers_build_lithium-ion_battery_able_to_last_27_years.aspx

Another energy storage technology:
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2013/07/130702-compressed-air-storage-for-wind-energy
Not sure how efficient it is, but it's better than throwing excess wind energy away.

Heating oil is not a great use for oil. Build a natural gas pipeline and tax it.
Right now gasoline is so cheap that many people drive gas hogs. Most of the world drives miserly vehicles that never make it to the USA, because we won't buy many.
A typical midsize sedan today: 3300 lbs, 4 cylinder with 185 mpg, 0-60 in 7.4 sec. In 1984 a Honda Accord was about 2000 lbs, 84 hp, slow.
Today a typical 4 cylinder turbo car has 210-300 hp,
and numerous American modern muscle cars have over 400 hp.
People commute to their desk job in V8 trucks meant to pull 10000 lb toys (and that does not include heavy duty trucks that pull 20000 lbs).

More expensive fuel will help to stop subsidizing sprawl and car based living. Carpooling and E-bikes will get more popular. Road rage will decrease.
Expensive for now, but a good example for the future - VW XL1 to get about 260 mpg. http://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/volkswagen-xl1-concept-first-drive-review
BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
Jul 2, 2013 - 08:52pm PT
Sick 'em, Ed!!

It is easy pickings on this thread. There are always crank websites ready to lead you through the passages of bad science.

If anyone wants to understand the difference between good science and bad science, buy Carl Sagan's The Demon Haunted World.

I can't say enough good things about that book. I wish Largo would read it, but that is asking a bit much.

Dr. Christ

Mountain climber
State of Mine
Jul 2, 2013 - 09:40pm PT
Thanks Base... just found it on youtube...

Demon Haunted World


And on a similar note, if anyone wants to understand how diversity and statistics are (mis)interpreted, may I recommend Full House by Steven J Gould. If anyone is interested, I will give it to you for the price of shipping.
Dr. Christ

Mountain climber
State of Mine
Jul 2, 2013 - 10:48pm PT
Who is it here that worked with the L.A. water issue? I'd be interested in hearing more about what worked and what didn't work for L.A.'s water conservation efforts. Clearly people LEARNED water conservation... why not energy conservation?
kev

climber
A pile of dirt.
Jul 2, 2013 - 11:21pm PT
Sigh...Still waiting for R. Sumners....
Norton

Social climber
the Wastelands
Jul 2, 2013 - 11:23pm PT
Sigh...Still waiting for R. Sumners....

and you will be waiting until the cows come home
new world order2

climber
Jul 2, 2013 - 11:46pm PT
Sigh....if we could somehow cull a few billion people, the environment would right itself.

How can we go about doing that?
new world order2

climber
Jul 3, 2013 - 12:04am PT
This the kind of future Ed, Chiloe, BASE, and Christ, envision for us......

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IRFsoRQYpFM

View the freakin' vid!

You guys like eating steak, having the freedom to drive your own car to the crags, or living in your own house?

You won't be getting any of it, once Agenda 21 kicks in.

dirtbag

climber
Jul 3, 2013 - 12:21am PT
Dude, you sound like a bible thumper. Sorry.

Some unseen entity, working in mysterious ways, controls everything.
new world order2

climber
Jul 3, 2013 - 12:23am PT
^^^I'm far from that, dirtbag. Pardon me for sounding like one.
new world order2

climber
Jul 3, 2013 - 12:30am PT
^^^^It would go to line Al Gore's pockets, of course!

Al Gore could become world's first carbon billionaire
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/6491195/Al-Gore-could-become-worlds-first-carbon-billionaire.html
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jul 3, 2013 - 12:33am PT
Well Kev- It is well known, by my own admission on this thread, that i am neither a climate scientist nor a mathematician. However, i do totally reject the CAGW elitists practiced argument against what they call deniers who they claim cannot possibly have the mental faculties to understand the "consensus science". I, along with the majority of the public and an emergent majority of scientists, understand quite well the utter b.s. underpinning this science which is indistiguishable from a cultish religion.Now on to your answer-excuse me i will put it in plain english minus the manipulation of data present in the equations.

Milankovitch Cycles-There are three major identified cycles (and a host of lesser effect cycles). 1.) The eccentricity of Earths orbit around the sun. It varies over a 100,000 year cycle from nearly cicular ,.0034 variance at its most circular, to .058 variance at its most elliptical, currently we are at .0167 variance. The Earths closest approach to the sun is called perihelion and its furthest aphelion. This current difference in distance translates in to a 6% variation in solar insolation between perihelion and aphelion. Currently the northern hemispheres summer corresponds to to the apehelion. On the face of this, this should dictate a general cooling trend in the northern hemisphere summer but for a peculiarity of the eccentricity that is often overlooked. That is; because of the enlargement of the orbit, and corresponding longer period of time it takes to traverse the further point of the ellipse, summer is several days longer currently in the northern hemisphere than the southern hemisphere and vice a versa with winter. 2 Axial tilt- The Earth varies in the amount of tilt from the plane of its orbit over approx. 40,000 years from 22.1 to 24.5 degrees. Currently we are at 23.5 degrres approx. and decreasing. The more tilt the more pronounced the difference in the seasons, but the less the tilt the less the year long solar insolation at high latitude and the more favorable conditions are to high latitude ice growth in both hemispheres. 3) Precession of the equinoxes or seasons- Along with the axial tilt the earth also has a wobble, caused by gravitational effects of the other planets, which causes the the axis of rotation about the geographic poles to circumscribe a cicle around the 12 backgrond constellations of the zodiac over a period of approx. 26,000 years.This also translate into a slow calendrical change ( if we didn't add a day to the calender every 400 years) in the seasons as precession slowly changes the earths orientation towards the sun at a rate varying from the orbital year and contributes along with eccentricity of the orbit to a change, in not only the time of the seasons, but also length of the seasons. As described above summer is currently several days longer in the northern hemisphere than the southern hemisphere.

Solar cycles-The sun's magnetic field varies and flips from the northern to southern pole over a period averaging 11 years, this is called a Schwabe cycle, the most prominent solar cycle.Over the length of this cycle the suns magnetic field causes numerous spots to occur on its surface which corresponds to increased irradiance during the maximum of the cycle to periods of low or no visible spots corresponding to lower irradiance. Current estimates, based on the modern period of observation, is that the total solar irradiance (TSI) varies only 0.1 % over the typical modern cycle . But because of chaotic internal processes having no or ill defined periodicity sometimes the sun goes into periods of multiple Schwabe cycles of low activity (lengthed cycles of decreased sunspots and irradiance) called a Grand Minima- The little ice age happened during the Maunder and Dalton minimums- we started coming out of this period in 1850. Other times the sun goes into to periods of high sunspot counts and irradiance called a Grand Maximum- cycles 19-22 in the mid to late 20th century fit the definition of Grand Maximum. Currently many solar scientists are predicting that cycle 23 and our current cycle 24 is the start of a new Grand Minimum that could be as pronounced as the Maunder minimum. They are also calling for the beginning of a distinct global cooling period because of prolonged TSI output near the lower levels of its variability. It will be interesting to see if this 0.1% estimate for TSI variation holds up going from maximum to minimum solar activity.At any rate even a small variation in solar activity does have a significant effect if it is at the limits of variability for a prolonged period of time.

Ocean Oscillations- There are quite a few of these from the PDO, ANO, AO, ENSO etc. etc. I'm getting tired of writing so look them up yourselves. Anyway, the planets oceans work much more efficiently for heat storage than land. All these ocean oscillations have positive periods (when the surface waters absorb heat and they stay at or near the top layer and negative periods where there is a transfer of energy from the surface water as the cold deep ocean water upwells to the surface. These oscillations store radiative energy during periods of increased TSI from the milankovitch cycles and Solar Grand Maximums and give it up to the atmosphere during the positive periods and as distributed by distinct ocean currents and likewise cool the atmosphere during negative periods.

Conclusion- Because of the Northern hemisphere's currently lengthed summer, the recent grand maximum of solar activity, and late 20th century positive periods of many of the oceanic currents most of the increased global warmth can be attributed to the aforementioned with only a small anthropogenic contribution. Additionally, as we seem to be going into a solar grand minumum, and at least the PDO has gone negative, and considering we are at the point of the Milankovitch Cycles favoring a slow descent back into glacial conditions, we should see a natural decrease of the 20th century's modest global heat rise. You guys do the math and the inevitable shredding and ridicule.

Bruce- glad your back as i value your sense of humor. Your statements- "punitive on the wealthy" and "chuffian darwinian evolutionary survival" are too funny, LMAO
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Jul 3, 2013 - 12:35am PT
Don't worry, an orbit change and a few La Nina's will save us.


http://www.motherjones.com/blue-marble/2013/03/new-hockey-stick-graph-...
http://www.motherjones.com/blue-marble/2013/03/new-hockey-stick-graph-scarier
Credit: monolith

Credit: monolith
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