Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Aug 29, 2014 - 12:29pm PT
Dead trees in the San Gabriels at what ele from smog - 2000-4000 foot range?

when I would sortie up into the San Gabriels, the foothills just a mile or so north of where I grew up in Claremont, CA. you could quickly get to the altitude of the inversion, and spy across it, blue sky above, smog below.

Those were the bad old days in the LA Basin... much worse than today, but even in the late 1960's and early 1970s you would see dead trees, I presumed them to be from the smog too (though I have no idea whether or not that was true).

Big brown "clouds" would blow up over those hills, the whole time.

As far as I could see, no one else in the area took those hikes... wonderful hikes close by to get a perspective on what we humans were doing in the basin...
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Aug 29, 2014 - 12:44pm PT
Okay. Once again the often trotted out near constancy of the TOTAL Solar Irradiance. The variation from the mean is in dispute from some quarters. But more importantly TSI doesn't differentiate in the much larger swings in individual spectrums making up the whole nor does it represent swings in the suns magnetic field , solar wind, proton density etc. etc. The devil is in the details of how the individual spectrums affect ocean and land mass heating, effects on biota and aerosol release, magnetic field effects on cloud nucleation and resultant albedo changes. None of this is represented in Ed's bland looking cherry pie graph.

Yes you city rat boy's and girls are making a mess of your local skies to the point that it is having visible consequences out in rural gods country. Quit your incessant and selfish driving and energy hog recreational pursuits. We regularly get haze in south central AK from chinese mega cities as well as siberian Fires and dust from the gobi desert.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Aug 29, 2014 - 12:46pm PT
As far as I could see, no one else in the area took those hikes... wonderful hikes close by to get a perspective on what we humans were doing in the basin...

I suspect that most longtime climbers, obviously not all of them, have their own versions of this perspective. Another vivid image for me was the neoplasmic expansion of Las Vegas until it laps against the Red Rocks, over the decades I've been climbing there.

Back to Ed's perspective, I'm even surprised that anyone who has ever taken the window seat on a plane flight could not see how much humans are anti-terraforming the planet.
FortMentäl

Social climber
Albuquerque, NM
Aug 29, 2014 - 01:02pm PT
Damage to Pine Trees Ozone transport to rural Western forests have also been associated with damage to pine trees. Ozone concentrations as low as 60 ppb can cause injury to foliage, a decrease in growth, and lead to increased tree mortality and changes in ecosystem composition...

Studies conducted by the NPS show trends in ozone have been increasing in most national parks from 1993 to 2002. Ozone levels in parks are higher, in some cases, than levels in urban areas during similar ozone events. All parks have shown some degree of injury to foliage of sensitive species including aspens and ponderosa pines. When ponderosa pines are exposed to severe ozone they may only retain needles for a single year as opposed to up to five years for a healthy pine...

Tree deaths in RMNP are stunning. Ozone trends there are rising and past 85 ppb, on a regular basis. Not that ozone is strictly responsible, given beetle infestations, but it can't possibly help a weakened tree.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Aug 29, 2014 - 02:11pm PT
Okay. Once again the often trotted out near constancy of the TOTAL Solar Irradiance. The variation from the mean is in dispute from some quarters.

rick you (and dave729 recently) have been talking about the Sun...

the TSI has two pieces in it, one is the constancy of the Sun (which is really very constant) the other is the amount of energy per unit time per unit area falling on the Earth, which depends on how close the Earth is to the Sun.

What that plot shows is that the variations due to the elliptical orbit dwarfs those other variations.

rick's figure of +/- 2 W/m^2 is not the correct measure of the constancy of the Solar output.

This is important because the light from the Sun is the major energy input to the Earth. So when you are talking about "energy balance" you've got to start with what you know about the source term.

Now, no one has answered the question, if we take an uncertainty of 0.5 W/m^2 for each of the 16000 points in that plot, how much would you expect the average value of all those points to vary? what is the uncertainty on the average value of all those points?

Dig deep guys... I see that Sketch isn't playing... he usually doesn't when he can't see what's coming... fears a trap that one does...

Sketch

Trad climber
Not FortMental
Aug 29, 2014 - 02:29pm PT



FortMentäl

Social climber
Albuquerque, NM

Aug 29, 2014 - 01:02pm PT

Tree deaths in RMNP are stunning. Ozone trends there are rising and past 85 ppb, on a regular basis. Not that ozone is strictly responsible, given beetle infestations, but it can't possibly help a weakened tree.

"Not that ozone is strictly responsible"?

Are you for real?

THE PROBLEM is the pine beetle infestation. Mild Winters and drought have made the problem worse. Ozone levels are a minor factor, if a factor at all.

But thanks for trying to add to the conversation.
Sketch

Trad climber
Not FortMental
Aug 29, 2014 - 02:44pm PT
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA

Aug 29, 2014 - 02:11pm PT

I see that Sketch isn't playing... he usually doesn't when he can't see what's coming... fears a trap that one does...

So, now you're baiting me.

You my bitch.

LOL
FortMentäl

Social climber
Albuquerque, NM
Aug 29, 2014 - 02:48pm PT
skretch's particular brand of genius doesn't include reading comprehension.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Aug 29, 2014 - 03:37pm PT
so you want to talk about accuracy, Sketch but you can't calculate the variance on a mean?

you're not going to get very far...

so, I know rick is trying very hard to figure it out, how about you? do you have any idea what that variance is?

let me restate it:
assume you have 16000 measurements each with 0.5 W/m^2 uncertainty.
What will the estimated uncertainty be on the average of those 16000 measurements?

there is a totally straight forward way to answer that question, and there are a number of very good questions pertaining to the answer of that question... but it is elementary statistics. I might have poor judgment, but my guess is that you, and even rick can calculate an answer.
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Aug 29, 2014 - 03:48pm PT
Sketch has made good progress in climate science understanding since he first proclaimed that the mass of CO2 in the atmosphere was so tiny that it couldn't possibly be a problem.

Keep up the good progress, Sketch.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Aug 29, 2014 - 04:33pm PT
wow you guys, it isn't that hard to figure out...

maybe if you asked Chiloe nicely he'd show you how to do it...
Sketch

Trad climber
Not FortMental
Aug 29, 2014 - 04:52pm PT
FortMentäl

Social climber
Albuquerque, NM

Aug 29, 2014 - 02:48pm PT
skretch's particular brand of genius doesn't include reading comprehension.

Still waiting to hear about your Denali trip. You're the one who brought it up. Why so coy?
Sketch

Trad climber
Not FortMental
Aug 29, 2014 - 04:58pm PT
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA

Aug 29, 2014 - 03:37pm PT
so you want to talk about accuracy, Sketch but you can't calculate the variance on a mean?

I do?

I can't?

You infer so much.

Still waiting for you to explain "how well do we have to do".

How 'bout it, old man?
FortMentäl

Social climber
Albuquerque, NM
Aug 29, 2014 - 04:59pm PT
You're the one who brought it up. Why so coy?


oh sketch.....

please get off my leg.

Sketch

Trad climber
Not FortMental
Aug 29, 2014 - 05:04pm PT
FortMentäl

Social climber
Albuquerque, NM

Aug 29, 2014 - 04:59pm PT

oh sketch.....

please get off my leg.

Plus points for originality.

Stick to slinging sh#t.

Trying to act cool by mentioning the thumb on the west butt (which has nothing to do with Pigeon Spire) or commenting on ozone killing the evergreen trees in RMNP

just makes you look dumb!

Ta ta
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Aug 29, 2014 - 05:32pm PT
so you want to talk about accuracy, Sketch ...

I do?


Yes, Mr. Smartypants. You do.

Or is your old age preventing you from remembering the post you made, a couple of times:

Sketch
Aug 26, 2014 - 02:22pm PT

Everyone agrees that we can’t predict the long-term response of the climate to ongoing CO2 rise with great accuracy.

It could be large

It could be small.

We don’t know.



... but you can't calculate the variance on a mean?

I can't?

Well, maybe you can. But you have yet to show us that you are indeed capable. How about it?


In your favor, however, you have show how capable you are of being condescending. And we know, from your own definition, what folks think of that.
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Aug 29, 2014 - 05:50pm PT
Adults who can't comprehend the following quote, which is written in English that even a high-school grad should understand, look to have an underwhelming mental capacity:

Damage to Pine Trees Ozone transport to rural Western forests have also been associated with damage to pine trees. Ozone concentrations as low as 60 ppb can cause injury to foliage, a decrease in growth, and lead to increased tree mortality and changes in ecosystem composition...

Studies conducted by the NPS show trends in ozone have been increasing in most national parks from 1993 to 2002. Ozone levels in parks are higher, in some cases, than levels in urban areas during similar ozone events. All parks have shown some degree of injury to foliage of sensitive species including aspens and ponderosa pines. When ponderosa pines are exposed to severe ozone they may only retain needles for a single year as opposed to up to five years for a healthy pine...
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Aug 29, 2014 - 05:56pm PT
Look Ed, from the top of my head the figure of 1363wm2 mean might have been off a tiny bit but the variation of mean in reconstructions using the Sorce data absolutely show a variation of 2 or more wm2. Look it up. I couldn't care less about your sixteen thousand points of b.s. as im not in some classroom of yours. You guys on the catastrophe side are continually arguing the supremacy of co2 as the control knob of earths climate change and also seek to further the notion that airborne CO2 has reached unprecedented levels as the result of human activities. Both of these notions are baseless alarmism. CO2 levels have been much higher in the relatively recent past without demonstrable control on the earths climate system and the Idea of the solar constant is a fallacy, particularly when a breakdown of the myriad of components in TSI is analysed. You and your freinds here are dead wrong, the real control knob has always been and will continue to be old Sol. There is a lot of solar research being done and the major researchers are finding there is much more to be discovered about Sol and its planetary system effects than is currently known.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Aug 29, 2014 - 06:34pm PT
You and your freinds here are dead wrong, the real control knob has always been and will continue to be old Sol.

I'm showing you the major energy input, the TSI, and the variance of the mean?

divide 0.5 W/m^2 by the square root of 1600 and you get 0.004 W/m^2

now we have a problem, rick our disagreement is something like 1000 times the expected variance of the mean...

now old Sketch has been talking about accuracy... we see that the mean from the SORCE data is very precisely measured, but the difference from one statement of the mean to another statement of the mean differs by an amount large compared to that precision.

the natural variation, due to the quite predictable change in the Earth-Sun distance can be characterized by the +/- 32 W/m^2, the variance of the measurements.

This is a 2.35%, there is a 7% swing, 93 W/m^2 between the maximum and the minimum TSI for a year. Totally predictable, and much larger than anything rick is talking about in terms of irradiance. All from the Earth orbiting the Sun, and effects in the changing energy input annually that are larger compared to the small shifts in the solar average.

So rick, how large do you think the irradiance is in the ultra-violet component of the solar radiation?


but the variation of mean in reconstructions using the Sorce data absolutely show a variation of 2 or more wm2.

perhaps you misunderstood what you were reading, maybe you could give me a link to where I should "look it up." I've down loaded the data and I'm looking at the measurement uncertainty that is in the data file from the SORCE web site.

rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Aug 29, 2014 - 08:38pm PT
Yes we are all aware of the TSI variation due to oliquity of orbit and axial tilt. Perhaps you should also add the 100% variation of TSI between day and night at the equator. What I'm talking about is the variation of mean during the long term cycles like the Seuss, Devries, and Eddy cycle. Look Ed, im not going to be drawn Into another is ism debate over legitamacy or non legitamacy of diverging interpretations.

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