Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Oct 13, 2014 - 09:38am PT
NASA: September, 2014, hottest September on record.

Yeah, I just looked at their data. Jan through Sep, 2014 is right up there among the top 4 (after 2010, 1998 and 2004). Globally speaking we live in warm times.
The Chief

climber
Laughing at all you angry blinded asshat Sheep
Oct 13, 2014 - 09:44am PT
Temperature speaking, we live in a realistic trend of a PAUSE in warming temps going on 16 years.

One to Nine months does not constitute jackshet according to all your posts here MONO etal.

So why even bother posting the super short term temps of a single month if 15-16 years doesn't indicate anything as far as the long term trend.

That is according to you all, of course.
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Oct 13, 2014 - 10:03am PT
Tami Bond is an environmental engineer and a professor at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Earlier this month, she was named a MacArthur Fellow for her research that unravels the effects of carbon emissions.
http://www.thetakeaway.org/story/genius-grant-fellow-battles-black-carbon/
http://www.macfound.org/fellows/910/
http://www.macfound.org/fellows/class/class-2014/
sci-fi

climber
Oct 13, 2014 - 10:08am PT

Advanced Two-Layer Climate Model for the Assessment of Global Warming by CO2:

http://www.scipublish.com/journals/ACC/papers/846


k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Oct 13, 2014 - 10:36am PT
Did you ever learn the definition of many?

Are you talking about this:

Think coral reefs — many of them are thriving, some of them are not ...


Why yes, many is more than "some," a concept you fail to grasp.

Are you going to break out your gums now?
sci-fi

climber
Oct 13, 2014 - 10:53am PT
Speaking of corals:

Venn, A. A., Tambutté, E., Holcomb, M., Laurent, J., Allemand, D., & Tambutté, S. (2013). Impact of seawater acidification on pH at the tissue–skeleton interface and calcification in reef corals. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 110(5), 1634-1639:
http://www.pnas.org/content/110/5/1634.short

"Overall, our findings suggest that reef corals may mitigate the effects of seawater acidification by regulating pH in the SCM [tissue–skeleton interface (subcalicoblastic medium)]"
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Oct 13, 2014 - 11:52am PT
Speaking of trolls,
that silliness about "global dimming" was already debunked in 2007.
http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2007/2007_Schmidt_etal_2.pdf
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Oct 13, 2014 - 12:04pm PT
Many - more than some.

Priceless.

How telling that Sketch cuts out the context.
sci-fi

climber
Oct 13, 2014 - 12:05pm PT
Really?


Román, R., Bilbao, J., & de Miguel, A. (2014). Reconstruction of six decades of daily total solar shortwave irradiation in the Iberian Peninsula using sunshine duration records. Atmospheric Environment:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1352231014007456

Highlights

• A method to reconstruct shortwave irradiation is developed.
Dimming and brightening periods are observed.
• Uncertainty in series can affect temporal trends.

Abstract

Total global solar shortwave (G) irradiation and sunshine duration were recorded at nine Spanish stations located in the Iberian Peninsula. G irradiation under cloudless conditions was simulated by means of a radiative transfer model using satellite data as input. A method based on these cloudless simulations and sunshine duration records was developed to reconstruct G series. This model was validated against experimental data, providing a good agreement for cloudless skies (mean bias error of 0.4% and root mean square error of 5.8%). Monthly averages of modelled and measured G irradiation presented a mean bias error of 0.5% and a root mean square error of 3%. Differences between modelled and measured G irradiation were in agreement within the model uncertainties. The reconstruction model was applied to sunshine duration measurements, giving long-term G series at the nine locations. Monthly, seasonal, and annual G anomalies were calculated and analysed. Averaged series (using the nine locations) showed a statistically significant decrease in annual G from 1950 to the mid 1980s (−1.7%dc−1) together with a significant increase from the mid 1980s to 2011 (1.6%dc−1). The effect of uncertainty in the reconstructed series on statistically significant trends was studied.
Hardly Visible

Social climber
Llatikcuf WA
Oct 13, 2014 - 12:06pm PT
I normally avoid jumping into the fray, but this seems to belong here.
Ok I'm outa here

The confidence of the dumb
There’s also that immutable problem known as “human nature.” It has a name now: it’s called the Dunning-Kruger effect, which says, in sum, that the dumber you are, the more confident you are that you’re not actually dumb. And when you get invested in being aggressively dumb…well, the last thing you want to encounter are experts who disagree with you, and so you dismiss them in order to maintain your unreasonably high opinion of yourself. (There’s a lot of that loose on social media, especially.)



http://thefederalist.com/2014/01/17/the-death-of-expertise/
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Oct 13, 2014 - 12:12pm PT
I'm sure Sci fi can produce an opinion to dispute that
sci-fi

climber
Oct 13, 2014 - 12:17pm PT
I was just about to say that the Dunning-Kruger effect fits perfectly on the description of the alarmist ecomaniacs. Save the polar bears...

Btw. I work at Stanford University as a researcher in geoscience.
What do you do for a living?
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Oct 13, 2014 - 12:36pm PT
>>Speaking of trolls,
>>that silliness about "global dimming" was already debunked in 2007.
>>http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2007/2007_Schmidt_etal_2.pdf

Really?

Yes, really.
Do you read anything that doesn't support your denialist opinion?
You only throw that article out like a pop up mole because you are on a hunt for anything that supports your preconceived opinion, just like you brought up cosmic rayguns. But this study of "dimming" does Nothing to make a significant impact. At this point, as in 2007, it remains an obfuscation latched onto by denialists.
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Oct 13, 2014 - 12:37pm PT
an ex bomb chucker and nail pounder. I certainly wouldn't dispute that the DK effect runs rampant amongst "ecomaniacs" but who are they anyway? Someone like you must be aware of the value of expertise.... and the risk of formulating opinion of your own, when superior expertise is available. No one should look to "eco maniacs" for opinion any more than right wing libertarians basket cases, so I'm not sure why you brought it up.

Anyway, in my experience " the dumber you are ' is not quite the best indicator of DK potential. In fact, it usually takes some exposure to knowledge to really generate the dunning Krugger effect. Some basic knowledge leads to plausible explanation, which leads to the path of confirmation biasing with more plausibility, reinforced by an ever increasing confidence in your own competency of judgement. We call it "level one disease".

When it comes to climate science, what level are you at Scifi?
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Oct 13, 2014 - 12:38pm PT
Why we need the 2 degree C climate upper limit.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/10/limiting-global-warming-to-2-c-why-victor-and-kennel-are-wrong/#more-17538
sci-fi

climber
Oct 13, 2014 - 12:48pm PT
Lets recap.

The cause of solar dimming and brightening at the Earth's surface during the last half century: Evidence from measurements of sunshine duration:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013JD021308/abstract

Abstract
Analysis of the Angstrom-Prescott relationship between normalized values of global radiation and sunshine duration measured during the last 50 years made at five sites with a wide range of climate and aerosol emissions showed few significant differences in atmospheric transmissivity under clear or cloud-covered skies between years when global dimming occurred and years when global brightening was measured, nor in most cases were there any significant changes in the parameters or in their relationships to annual rates of fossil fuel combustion in the surrounding 1° cells. It is concluded that at the sites studied changes in cloud cover rather than anthropogenic aerosols emissions played the major role in determining solar dimming and brightening during the last half century and that there are reasons to suppose that these findings may have wider relevance.

_


Decadal variations in estimated surface solar radiation over Switzerland since the late 19th century:
http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/12/8635/2012/acp-12-8635-2012.html

Abstract.
Our knowledge on trends in surface solar radiation (SSR) involves uncertainties due to the scarcity of long-term time series of SSR, especially with records before the second half of the 20th century. Here we study the trends of all-sky SSR from 1885 to 2010 in Switzerland, which have been estimated using a homogenous dataset of sunshine duration series. This variable is shown to be a useful proxy data of all-sky SSR, which can help to solve some of the current open issues in the dimming/brightening phenomenon. All-sky SSR has been fairly stable with little variations in the first half of the 20th century, unlike the second half of the 20th century that is characterized also in Switzerland by a dimming from the 1950s to the 1980s and a subsequent brightening. Cloud cover changes seem to explain the major part of the decadal variability observed in all-sky SSR, at least from 1885 to the 1970s; at this point, a discrepancy in the sign of the trend is visible in the all-sky SSR and cloud cover series from the 1970s to the present. Finally, an attempt to estimate SSR series for clear-sky conditions, based also on sunshine duration records since the 1930s, has been made for the first time. The mean clear-sky SSR series shows no relevant changes between the 1930s to the 1950s, then a decrease, smaller than the observed in the all-sky SSR, from the 1960s to 1970s, and ends with a strong increase from the 1980s up to the present. During the three decades from 1981 to 2010 the estimated clear-sky SSR trends reported in this study are in line with previous findings over Switzerland based on direct radiative flux measurements. Moreover, the signal of the El Chichón and Pinatubo volcanic eruption visible in the estimated clear-sky SSR records further demonstrates the potential to infer aerosol-induced radiation changes from sunshine duration observations.
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Oct 13, 2014 - 12:51pm PT
I'm sorry I must have missed something....


What level of expertise did you say you are?
sci-fi

climber
Oct 13, 2014 - 12:52pm PT
Regarding the 2-degree target it would interesting for you to read this work that has just been published:

http://judithcurry.com/2014/10/09/my-op-ed-in-the-wall-street-journal-is-now-online/#more-17038
The Chief

climber
Laughing at all you angry blinded asshat Sheep
Oct 13, 2014 - 12:52pm PT


"Climate change can now be considered another weapon of mass destruction, perhaps the world's most fearsome weapon of mass destruction," he said.
John Kerry, Feb 12, 2014

"We see people fighting over water in some places. There are huge challenges to food security and challenges to the ecosystem, our fisheries and ... the acidification of the ocean is a challenge for all of us," Kerry said.

"And when you accrue all of this, while we are confronting ISIL and we are confronting terrorism and we are confronting Ebola and other things, those are immediate," he added, using an alternate acronym for the terrorist group.

"This also has an immediacy that people need to come to understand, but it has even greater longer-term consequences that can cost hundreds of billions, trillions of dollars, lives, and the security of the world," Kerry continued.
John Kerry Sep 22, 2014


Feed the RAT of doom and fear by sounding the total BS propaganda alarm. Get the agenda perpetrated and incorporate via the political fear mongering in order to get the ideology into the heads of all them sheep out there.


If I were Colin Powell, I would serious considering sueing Kerry for plagiarizing his speech at the UN.


Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Oct 13, 2014 - 12:56pm PT
back up a bit Sci fi....

we were talking about the dunning Krugger syndrome and you were insinuating a certain level of expertise in climate science by way of a claim of profession.

So you would feel comfortsnble and competent in the role of 'Expert witness" based on your skill and judgement?


BTW..... why the moniker Science fiction? does that describe you or is that a particular comment on science in general?
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