Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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raymond phule

climber
Jul 2, 2014 - 07:56am PT
Yes, he has been more correct with that prediction if he actually said that but it really is more complicated than just comparing trends. He made the claim at a time that seems to have a higher than expected temperature.

Do you understand that the graph he shows is fake and is incorrect and that he is incorrect when he claims that he made a correct prediction of a cooling phase?
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Jul 2, 2014 - 08:20am PT
NASA's OCO-2 carbon counting mission is now in polar orbit.

http://www.nasa.gov/content/oco-2-lifts-off-on-carbon-counting-mission/index.html#.U7QRyfldWSo

Sketch

Trad climber
H-ville
Jul 2, 2014 - 08:21am PT
raymond phule

climber

Jul 2, 2014 - 07:56am PT
Yes, he has been more correct with that prediction if he actually said that but it really is more complicated than just comparing trends. He made the claim at a time that seems to have a higher than expected temperature.

Wow. That's an impressive rationalization.
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Jul 2, 2014 - 08:28am PT
Do you have more definitive proof of shorter Winters.

I suppose that depends on where you look. Climate scientists predict harsher winters in some areas, harsher drought in others.


Just eyeballing the Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover Anomalies of October, November and December, it seems there's been an increase in early snowfall. But this issue is secondary to overall global temps.


You're not looking in the western Norther Hemisphere, are you. In California, I used to prepare for winter snow before Thanksgiving, we usually had snow in late October, early Nov. The past few years, it's been bone dry at Christmas. No cross-country skiing for us! The drought in the western states is severe. You don't get that from "an increase in early snowfall," now do you?

So Sketch, where did you get the data that allows you to make the "increase in early snowfall" claim? From here, it looks like cherry-picked data.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Jul 2, 2014 - 08:28am PT
As most here recognize, the blog WUWT supplies many of the talking points that Sketch, Rick and other denialists rush to repeat, thinking they've got another zinger. They never do, but if all you read is political bloggers, then that's the "science" world you see.

For a more science-literate alternative it's worth checking out the shadow blog by Sou, called Hot Whopper. No one can keep up with the WUWT rate of posting but Sou does quite a job of skeptically noting (and archiving) WUWT gems. Also writes in a quite snarky style, which the material richly deserves. Sou includes many astonishing quotes from WUWT reader comments as well, so that culture looks more familiar when Sketch, Rick etc. bring it here.

For example, here is Sou's note on Anthony's recent temperature follies.
Lost for words

Today Anthony Watts is lost for words. So lost that when he found out that NCDC/NOAA had responded to a query from Politifact, he just posted the response "without comment" (archived here). The response from NCDC was, unsurprisingly, that their algorithms are working as intended. You can read it in full in the archived WUWT article. It is just as Nick Stokes and others wrote.

Anthony peevishly wrote "The NCDC has not responded to me personally, I only got this by asking around." Yeah, you'd think that after Anthony's lunatic rantings at all and sundry and misrepresenting the NCDC they'd at least have paid him the courtesy of writing to him, the "bigger than Ben Hur" denier blogger, "personally"!

He stomped about for at least three hours trying to figure out how to get back at the NCDC/NOAA for ignoring him and his anti-science blog. "How could they do that?" He fumed. "I just put in a huge amount of effort telling my readers how bad and unscrupulous and wrong and positively evil the NOAA is and they ignore me."

The fact that it was Anthony who was so dreadfully wrong in almost everything he wrote about the US temperature record would have been beside the point. He wanted to stir up a hornets' nest, but the hornets flew off over his head. He wasn't worth even a little sting.

Anyway, check out Hot Whopper. Well worth reading as an antidote to the WUWT claims so often shopped here.
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Jul 2, 2014 - 08:31am PT
Sketch, why do you believe non-scientific blogs over true scientific findings?


BTW, that [Time for a little light humor.] was a funny vid ...
Sketch

Trad climber
H-ville
Jul 2, 2014 - 08:46am PT
Oh joy. More personal attacks.

Some many of you seem to prefer this tactic over actually addressing my posts.

SSDD

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global-snow/2013/10
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Jul 2, 2014 - 09:04am PT
Oh joy. More personal attacks.

Really? Me thinks you are paranoid.



Thanks for the link to the NOAA article, put me in my place.

How can it be that snowfall in the NH is going up, but the entire western US is in severe three-year drought? Could it be that warmer air holds more moisture, which results in bigger storms? Notice too, from the same article, that NH sea ice is going down.

I'm thinking this is in alignment with what climate scientists have predicted.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Jul 2, 2014 - 09:47am PT
Meanwhile, what about Arctic sea ice? You're probably all wondering.



Well, maybe you're not wondering. But for many Arctic scientists and a growing pool of citizen-scientists it is ice-watching time again. I've been involved with a meta-analysis of serious and less-serious attempts to predict the annual minimum sea ice extent over the past six years. With a new summer upon us, researchers are at it again, trying to guess where this one will go. Summer 2012 smashed previous records for minimum ice extent in the satellite era; summer 2013 stayed above that although still well below average.

Here's how it stacks up in today's NSIDC near-real-time data, which runs through yesterday. At 9.4 million km^2 the ice extent is in the bottom 4 for this date, about 200,000 higher than 2013 but 400,000 lower than 2013. Place your bets now if you want to -- as some people are doing.


Sketch

Trad climber
H-ville
Jul 2, 2014 - 10:01am PT


Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Jul 2, 2014 - 10:21am PT
Have any ideas of your own, sketch, or just another copy-paste talking point? What is happening with Antarctic sea ice right now? Is anybody studying it? What have they learned?
raymond phule

climber
Jul 2, 2014 - 10:28am PT
Sketch, can you answer this?

Do you understand that the graph he shows is fake and is incorrect and that he is incorrect when he claims that he made a correct prediction of a cooling phase?
raymond phule

climber
Jul 2, 2014 - 10:34am PT

Wow. That's an impressive rationalization.

Or maybe an understanding of the trends in that time interval.
Sketch

Trad climber
H-ville
Jul 2, 2014 - 10:37am PT
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH

Jul 2, 2014 - 10:21am PT
Have any ideas of your own, sketch, or just another copy-paste talking point? What is happening with Antarctic sea ice right now? Is anybody studying it? What have they learned?

This new civility of yours is so refreshing.

The Antarctic Sea Ice is growing at a rate that may result in last year's record extent being surpassed.

I believe so.

Not sure. Are you having trouble finding information on the subject?

Oh yeah. Thanks for your earnest, polite replies to my previous posts.

Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Jul 2, 2014 - 10:43am PT
So, it was just another talking point. Why should anyone answer your "questions"?

Meanwhile another interesting Arctic ice development this week:

Whaling logbooks could hold key to retreating Arctic ice fronts

ICE fronts from the early 19th century were far more advanced around the Arctic than they are today, researchers analysing whalers’ log books from this time have discovered.

The findings have been revealed as part of the ARCdoc research project, led by the University of Sunderland, which analyses historical logbooks recorded by explorers, whalers and merchants during epic expeditions, between 1750 and 1850. The project aims to increase our scientific understanding of climate change in this environmentally important region. The logbooks include famous voyages such as Parry’s polar expedition in HMS Hecla and Sir John Franklin’s lost journey to navigate the Northwest Passage.

Some of the most significant data to emerge from the project has come from painstaking analysis of 60 log books belonging to whaling vessels, which contain descriptions of sea ice advancing and retreating every summer, all of which were recorded by whalers who ventured farther north than anyone else.

Phd Student Matthew Ayre has mapped what the ice was doing during that 100 year period, around the Davis Straits area, and at a time pre-dating the emergence of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. A comparison with satellite data from the last 30 years of this area shows the ice was far more advanced than it is today.

Dr Dennis Wheeler said: “Significantly this is the first time we have ever had direct observational information on the ice fronts in the North Atlantic and Davis Straits area before 1900. Until the introduction of satellite information from the 1970s, we didn’t know what the ice was doing. Well, now we know that it was more advanced, therefore the retreat of the ice in the last 30 years is part of a more recent and new pattern of climate change, so these log books contain absolutely vital climatologically information.
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Jul 2, 2014 - 10:46am PT
The planet is losing sea ice extent.

Sketch

Trad climber
H-ville
Jul 2, 2014 - 11:01am PT
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH

Jul 2, 2014 - 10:43am PT
So, it was just another talking point.

What are you talking about?

Norton

Social climber
the Wastelands
Jul 2, 2014 - 11:08am PT


Why is One Pole Colder Than the Other?


Antarctica (the South Pole) is land surrounded by oceans, while the Arctic (surrounding the North Pole) is an ocean almost completely surrounded by continents and Greenland.

The Arctic isn't quite as cold as Antarctica, and here are some reasons why:

A massive ice sheet covers almost all of the Antarctic continent. Although glaciers are common in the Arctic, Greenland has the only permanent ice sheet, but it's only about 1/8 the size of the Antarctic ice sheet.

As the Arctic Ocean surrounds the North Pole, the ice cover is sea ice that floats on the ocean (only about 10-20 feet / 3-6 meters thick), instead of that massive ice sheet (more than 2 miles / 3 kilometers thick in places).

The Arctic's thin ice cover has water, not land, under it. While the water is anything but warm (it's temperature is, naturally, above the freezing point - or else it would be ice), it is much, much warmer than the air above the ice - and some of this heat makes its way through the ice to the air.

The ice cap over the Arctic Ocean is always moving because of the winds above it and the ocean currents beneath it. This movement causes large cracks (called "leads") to open up - even in winter - and this allows ocean heat to escape into the air.
Land loses heat faster than water.
Antarctic has stronger winds than the Arctic.http://www.athropolis.com/arctic-facts/fact-poles.htm



Therefore: there is NO relevance to a theory that the Antarctic is either an indication or a predictive tool to negate overall global warming
Sketch

Trad climber
H-ville
Jul 2, 2014 - 11:30am PT
Therefore: there is NO relevance to a theory that the Antarctic is either an indication or a predictive tool to negate overall global warming

That may be true, but it sure is a good tool for stirring up fears over global warming.

Did you know the West Antarctica ice sheet is collapsing?
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Jul 2, 2014 - 12:02pm PT
Yep, too bad for some future generations.
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