Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Aug 14, 2014 - 11:17pm PT
What the hell else do the models accurately predict Ed. Perhaps the mid tropospheric hotspot, an increase in relative humidity, more frequent and severe weather, increased antarctic sea ice now at the point that its extent has raised global coverage to record levels? No the heart of the hype coming from the model projections was a monotonous, unrelenting linear rise Iin global average temps in response to increased CO2 and the imagined amplifying feedbacks. Exactly equal to the projection of a linear decrease of temps you are now ridiculing. Seems to me your between a rock and a hard place with this argument.







Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Aug 14, 2014 - 11:18pm PT
gee The Chief, it only goes back 120 years... your's doesn't go back 5 years...

Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Aug 14, 2014 - 11:25pm PT
come on Rick. Chuff just chickened out stage right and not a peep outa Blah Blah. Its all you man. The whole thing is riding on your gunslinging.


DO NOT FUK THIS UP
raymond phule

climber
Aug 14, 2014 - 11:26pm PT
blahblah, I see that you more or less agreed with my understanding of your "argument". I don't really understand though why you wrote a long post to make it more clear.

1. You have read that science are not perfect. Especially that same part of some other areas of science have some problems, psychology, clinical statistical studies for example.
2. You don't believe in the conclusions from climate science.

So you conclude that climate science is in your words a "science" that should not be trusted.
raymond phule

climber
Aug 14, 2014 - 11:43pm PT

(or NOAA if you accept Larry's word in lieu of citation)

What an idiot.

"http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/national-temperature-index/images/nClimDiv_USCRN-AnnualDeps.png"

Copy that link from noaa and look at the figure. Does it look familiar?

It could be a good thing to learn how to find out the URL for pictures posted on the internet before starting with the insults and stuff that show your ignorance.

You can ask the chief how he did it. Even he knows that the graph were from noaa.
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Aug 14, 2014 - 11:54pm PT
Oh Rick.... I am so disapointed. Opportunities like this only happen every few years. You had him on the ropes! All three of you knew - intuitively I might add - there was something fishy about that old Ed Hartouni and those lines that went straight sideways but... but.....

WTF? Have you no technical skill at all? All those years of boring your wife with abstracts and you couldn't even take him apart on his chicken scratch plots?

But hey thats the problem with intuition - its only a feeling and how do you articulate a feeling into a technical argument, even with your stellar grasp of the English language? So thats how its going to be eh. Ed could give you a graph showing that the world actually is flat and no matter how jumpy your spidey senses get, you'll just sit there stewing and flummoxed like a cow getting the cattle prod, unable to articulate anything but bulging eyes and some anxious grunts.

And you are what stands between america and communism? We're doomed.
The Chief

climber
Laughing at all the Sheep
Aug 15, 2014 - 06:16am PT
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA

Aug 14, 2014 - 11:18pm PT
gee The Chief, it only goes back 120 years... your's doesn't go back 5 years...

EDH, I seriously believe you ought to consider retiring very soon. You are now showing a consistent pattern that does not look good. If you choose not to do so, please do refrain from getting personally involved with anything that has to do with the US's inventory of WMD's. It is obvious that your "assuming" abilities have deteriorated quite drastically.

The Chief

climber
Laughing at all the Sheep

Aug 14, 2014 - 09:55pm PT
Ah, what model are you referring to EDH.

This is the ONLY graph I have posted. Observed Data from HADCRUT4, RSSMSU & GISTEMP from 2005-2014






Ya'll have a good week. I am off to hook up with one of these very very rare little beauties.

Quality NOT Quantity is what truly matters in life. NOT size. I do not expect either Malnuts nor Brucee KY to EEEEEEEVEN understand that concept in life.

Courtesy Brad Meyers III
Courtesy Brad Meyers III
Credit: The Chief
Eastern Slope McCloud Redband CT
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Aug 15, 2014 - 06:56am PT
New research links tornado strength, frequency to climate change
http://news.fsu.edu/More-FSU-News/New-research-links-tornado-strength-frequency-to-climate-change
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Aug 15, 2014 - 07:17am PT
Humans the biggest force driving glacier meltdown, new study says
http://www.theprovince.com/news/Humans+biggest+force+driving+glacier+meltdown+study+says/10118297/story.html

"Every year we drive stakes five metres deep into the glacier in the fall. We have to return and re-drill them in mid-summer because a lot of those stakes on the Athabasca Glacier, the one that a lot of people go visit, will be lying flat on the ice at that time.

"We're losing at least five metres a year on the surface of that glacier."
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/athabasca-glacier-could-disappear-within-generation-says-manager-1.2653641
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Aug 15, 2014 - 07:26am PT
Wow The Chief, you sure are proud of your graph, you posted it 5 times over the last couple of pages. Too bad you don't really understand what it represents:



Why did you pick less than 10 years of data? If you wanted to show a cooling trend, couldn't you just pick a month in the winter when the temperatures really plunge?



Fact is if this OBSERVED temp trend continues and is not interrupted for the next 10-15 years, it will clearly indicate Global Cooling. Per your own statement that 30 years of consistent weather/temps equals climate. Then we know how history will look back on your kind and all your AGW bs fear mongering eco-freak ideology.


And if the weather behaves like the models that are running on powerful servers predict, the ones run by scientists who actually know what they are doing, history will look back on your kind and wonder how we let you into the conversation for even a minute.
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Aug 15, 2014 - 07:42am PT
Credit: Malemute
Dr Richard Milne - Critical Thinking on Climate Change: Separating Skepticism from Denial
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gh9kDCuPuU8
at time 19:52

Credit: Malemute
ibid, time 25:04

Credit: Malemute
ibid, time 38:38

Credit: Malemute
ibid, time 40:46

Credit: Malemute
ibid, time 41:34

Credit: Malemute
ibid, time 57:24
The Chief

climber
Laughing at all the Sheep
Aug 15, 2014 - 08:46am PT
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Perfect example of the ideology you and AGW eco-freak libtardos proliferate, MALNUTS. Thanks for clearly showing us, AGAIN, what this AGW stuff is all about.








k-man

Gym climber
SCruz

Topic Author's Reply - Aug 15, 2014 - 07:26am PT
Too bad you don't really understand what it represents:





And if the weather behaves like the models that are running on powerful servers predict, the ones run by scientists who actually know what they are doing, history will look back on your kind and wonder how we let you into the conversation for even a minute.

I don't understand?




Then you state the ....

"Weather"

Priceless KMAN, utterly priceless.


You definitely are the AGW CLOWN CAR OWNER/OPERATOR.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Aug 15, 2014 - 09:09am PT
First off Bruce, some of us have to get up in the morning to accomplish actual work. Second, your jabbering about taking Ed apart over straight line chicken scratching is not something I want or have the abilty to do. Instead I depend on his old school scientific ethic to occaisionally rise above his obvious bias to produce little gold nuggets of reality contrary to the alarmist narrative. He did so again last night with his three time series plot. The red line plot, the only one long enough (1975-2013) to represent climate versus weather variability according to the common thirty definition of average trends, clearly showed we are in a period of no significant change other than a very slight long term cooling. The only bone I had to pick was his criticism if The Chief over projecting a trend based on a ten year cooling period while defending the CAGW narrative for similar projections and the attempt to erase significance of "the pause".

Phule, your a damn fool. Look at Chiloes posted graphs fron a few days ago and see if it at all clear who he originally ascribed authorship to before you run off at the mouth.


Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Aug 15, 2014 - 09:36am PT
How well does that red line from 1975 to 2013 describe the temperature anomaly time series, rick?

Can you state how you come to your conclusion?

You look "by eye" but what does your eye see... try to describe it.
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Aug 15, 2014 - 09:38am PT
your jabbering about taking Ed apart over straight line chicken scratching is not something I want or have the abilty to do. Instead I depend on his old school scientific ethic to occaisionally rise above his obvious bias to produce little gold nuggets of reality contrary to the alarmist narrative.

You really just don't get it do you? If you have no ability of discernment, you have no idea whether he is serving you gold nuggets or dog food. He could be pissing in your face and for all you know its raining out. You can't peg his narative as alarmist or animist. Thats why your only available tool is intuition. For all your ability to deliberate, Ed is speaking in tongues. Thats why Phule is mocking you with Latin. When Ed speaks, its all latin to you.

The moment you opened your flapper to proclaim " you're right, I don't know shit" you immediately remove yourself from the list of credible critic. All you can do is as you put it so wisely last night " Observe and add nothing".

But that really is what burns your ass isn't it? That is why you so gleefully identify with the Chuff, one of the few people even less qualified to comment as yourself. Malemute is right - the real thing going down with you guys is that literally you can't handle the fact that you are cut out of the picture purely on terms of your ignorance. That is the Red State ethic - preservation of self esteem takes presedent over any intelligent decision making process, all on the grounds that such process does not include you.

Pure childish butt hurt
raymond phule

climber
Aug 15, 2014 - 10:04am PT

Phule, your a damn fool. Look at Chiloes posted graphs fron a few days ago and see if it at all clear who he originally ascribed authorship to before you run off at the mouth.

Yes, it was clear. It was just to look at the URL. He also told you twice that it was a noaa graph and that you should look at the URL. What else should he have done? Is it really necessary to show the URL in quotes or similar so that you can see the link instead of showing the jpg file?

Even the chief used the same graph with the noaa url. You can ask him how he found the source of the file.
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Aug 15, 2014 - 10:27am PT
Solar Geoengineering: Weighing Costs of Blocking the Sunís Rays
http://e360.yale.edu/feature/solar_geoengineering_weighing_costs_of_blocking_the_suns_rays/2727/

we can act now
OR
"desperate times call for desperate measures"

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/scientist-david-keith-on-slowing-global-warming-with-geoengineering-a-934359.html



What is amusingly tragic is that the knucklehead deniers on this thread are trying to push us to the point where we will need to use these last ditch efforts, which are both costly and risky.
But that's what stupid people do.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Aug 15, 2014 - 10:52am PT
Before getting back to concentrating on my days task ahead ( job) of installing slate below the water table of the front of my now roofed and totally roughed in ready for insulation 2000 s.f. deluxe cabin in the sky overlooking the canary of the local coal mine, the receding or advancing matanuska glacier, I'll take a moment to again elaborate on what Ed's red line means. The line is the average july-august temp anomaly, ever so slightly negative, of the 38 year period from 1975-2013. This period definitely qualifies as a trend of climate being it exceeds the 30 years of an average of weather accepted as the definition of climate as previously represented by Ed and many others on this thread. If it is correct it can be checked by combining and averaging his green and purple plot of weather temp anomalies over a 13 and 25 year period. His red line result is reproducible with enough information provided. In short science showing the fact that there is no global warming here over the majority of the supposed rapid increase in manmade airborne CO2. Got it, good, now perhaps you can concentrate on what the taxpayers are paying you to do.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Aug 15, 2014 - 11:07am PT
The line is the average temp anomaly, ever so slightly negative, of the 38 year period from 1975-2013.

which is a misunderstanding of the anomaly definition...

the "anomaly" is a difference of the observed temperature with some average temperature over a period of time. The absolute value of the anomaly doesn't contain any special information.

Say I choose to calculate the anomaly with respect to the average temperature over that same period of time, 1975-2014, by definition, the average of the anomaly will be zero.

That the plot I showed has a slightly negative anomaly is indicative of the difference between this time period and the time period over which the anomaly was defined. You can dig that out of the NOAA data webpage, but there isn't any information there.

What is interesting is the change of the anomaly with time. The obvious feature of this plot is that the early years are lower than the red line, and the later years are higher than the red line...

say you bisect the time and take 1975-1994 and 1995-2014

the number of points above the red line for these two periods are:

5 for the period from 1975-1994
14 for the period from 1995-2014

if this was random, you'd have expected half of the points to be above, and half below... that would be 10 above for each period.

Now we have a very slight shift, for the 1975-1994 we saw 4 above and expected 10 and for 1995-2014 we saw 14 above and expected 10.

This is an indication that the temperature anomaly is increasing over that period of time.

Credit: Ed Hartouni
raymond phule

climber
Aug 15, 2014 - 11:12am PT

I'll take a moment to again elaborate on what Ed's red line means. The line is the average july-august temp anomaly, ever so slightly negative, of the 38 year period from 1975-2013. This period definitely qualifies as a trend of climate being it exceeds the 30 years of an average of weather accepted as the definition of climate as previously represented by Ed and many others on this thread. If it is correct it can be checked by combining and averaging his green and purple plot of weather temp anomalies over a 13 and 25 year period. His red line result is reproducible with enough information provided. In short science showing the fact that there is no global warming here over the majority of the supposed rapid increase in manmade airborne CO2. Got it, good, now perhaps you can concentrate on what the taxpayers are paying you to do.

This is not even funny. How can someone be so clueless about something and at the same time believe that he knows it?

How is it possibly to draw that conclusion from Ed's graph?

It is of course not hard to understand that rick believes everything that his blogs feeds him when he manage to see what he wants in Ed's graph. It doesn't even need to be any connection at all with the line that he thinks is the trend and the actual data.
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