Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Aug 14, 2014 - 10:30pm PT
Just observing . I can't add anything to what Ed already revealed with his three plot presentation. Like I said: thats as good as it gets.
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Aug 14, 2014 - 10:36pm PT
Just observing . I can't add anything

By far the smartest move you've made here in years
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Aug 14, 2014 - 10:39pm PT
you are predicting the next 20 years, but you have no evidence that the way you are predicting it has anything to do with reality...

in fact, your prediction method is shown to be in disagreement with the data, the temperature anomaly in 1980 was not +3F, had it been, you would have predicted our current temperature anomaly correctly. But you didn't, and you couldn't... had your model any predictive capability, the anomaly today, given the observed value in 1980, would be -3F, which it is not.

The point is, your implied model, the linear trend in the recent temperature, doesn't have anything at all to do with the behavior of the climate.

The climate models, on the other hand, do a good job reproducing the anomaly since 1896 based on our fundamental understanding of the climate. Those models make a much better case for predicting the future than your linear model of temperature anomaly.

In fact, your model only predicts the temperature anomaly, the climate models predict the entire observed climate... of which the surface temperature anomaly is only one part.

You cannot seriously assert that your model has anything at all to do with reality. It does not.
The Chief

climber
Laughing at all the Sheep
Aug 14, 2014 - 10:52pm PT
Nice try EDH.


Fact is if this OBSERVED temp trend continues and is not interrupted for the next 10-15 years, it will clearly indicate Global Cooling. Per your own statement that 30 years of consistent weather/temps equals climate. Then we know how history will look back on your kind and all your AGW bs fear mongering eco-freak ideology.

Now that is reality, EDH.

PS: The word "IF" can go both ways now. So I recommend you all be careful with your assumptions. But that is obviously not even in your "Science" close minded vocabulary.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Aug 14, 2014 - 10:59pm PT
if you believe in magic, The Chief, then anything can happen...


your "if" isn't supported by anything but magic (I'd call it magical thinking, but thinking has nothing to do with it).

your "if" is totally made up, and doesn't have anything to do with the past. How is it that suddenly, it has anything to do with the future?

Credit: Ed Hartouni
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Aug 14, 2014 - 11:03pm PT
OK Rick - times up. you've never been one to silently observe and both Ed and Chuckles have pretty much thrown down the gauntlet.

You are senior self edumacated climatologist here. Man up for fuks sake. Remove your sword and slay the dragon. He is vulnerable. He has set himself up and Chuff is about to flub it. You can sense his shakiness.

Time for you to step forward and serve your country fer christ sake you weak kneed toady
The Chief

climber
Laughing at all the Sheep
Aug 14, 2014 - 11:14pm PT
Pretty amazing how your "past" only goes back to a certain point in time.

You and your modeling plotters have dictated a specific period of time that conforms to your spike/warming theory. It just so happens to "correlate" with man's Industrial period. How convenient.

So you are the one/s performing magic.

Good night EDH. I seriously recommend you rethink your assuming process. Seriously.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Aug 14, 2014 - 11:17pm PT
What the hell else do the models accurately predict Ed. Perhaps the mid tropospheric hotspot, an increase in relative humidity, more frequent and severe weather, increased antarctic sea ice now at the point that its extent has raised global coverage to record levels? No the heart of the hype coming from the model projections was a monotonous, unrelenting linear rise Iin global average temps in response to increased CO2 and the imagined amplifying feedbacks. Exactly equal to the projection of a linear decrease of temps you are now ridiculing. Seems to me your between a rock and a hard place with this argument.







Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Aug 14, 2014 - 11:18pm PT
gee The Chief, it only goes back 120 years... your's doesn't go back 5 years...

Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Aug 14, 2014 - 11:25pm PT
come on Rick. Chuff just chickened out stage right and not a peep outa Blah Blah. Its all you man. The whole thing is riding on your gunslinging.


DO NOT FUK THIS UP
raymond phule

climber
Aug 14, 2014 - 11:26pm PT
blahblah, I see that you more or less agreed with my understanding of your "argument". I don't really understand though why you wrote a long post to make it more clear.

1. You have read that science are not perfect. Especially that same part of some other areas of science have some problems, psychology, clinical statistical studies for example.
2. You don't believe in the conclusions from climate science.

So you conclude that climate science is in your words a "science" that should not be trusted.
raymond phule

climber
Aug 14, 2014 - 11:43pm PT

(or NOAA if you accept Larry's word in lieu of citation)

What an idiot.

"http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/national-temperature-index/images/nClimDiv_USCRN-AnnualDeps.png"

Copy that link from noaa and look at the figure. Does it look familiar?

It could be a good thing to learn how to find out the URL for pictures posted on the internet before starting with the insults and stuff that show your ignorance.

You can ask the chief how he did it. Even he knows that the graph were from noaa.
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Aug 14, 2014 - 11:54pm PT
Oh Rick.... I am so disapointed. Opportunities like this only happen every few years. You had him on the ropes! All three of you knew - intuitively I might add - there was something fishy about that old Ed Hartouni and those lines that went straight sideways but... but.....

WTF? Have you no technical skill at all? All those years of boring your wife with abstracts and you couldn't even take him apart on his chicken scratch plots?

But hey thats the problem with intuition - its only a feeling and how do you articulate a feeling into a technical argument, even with your stellar grasp of the English language? So thats how its going to be eh. Ed could give you a graph showing that the world actually is flat and no matter how jumpy your spidey senses get, you'll just sit there stewing and flummoxed like a cow getting the cattle prod, unable to articulate anything but bulging eyes and some anxious grunts.

And you are what stands between america and communism? We're doomed.
The Chief

climber
Laughing at all the Sheep
Aug 15, 2014 - 06:16am PT
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA

Aug 14, 2014 - 11:18pm PT
gee The Chief, it only goes back 120 years... your's doesn't go back 5 years...

EDH, I seriously believe you ought to consider retiring very soon. You are now showing a consistent pattern that does not look good. If you choose not to do so, please do refrain from getting personally involved with anything that has to do with the US's inventory of WMD's. It is obvious that your "assuming" abilities have deteriorated quite drastically.

The Chief

climber
Laughing at all the Sheep

Aug 14, 2014 - 09:55pm PT
Ah, what model are you referring to EDH.

This is the ONLY graph I have posted. Observed Data from HADCRUT4, RSSMSU & GISTEMP from 2005-2014






Ya'll have a good week. I am off to hook up with one of these very very rare little beauties.

Quality NOT Quantity is what truly matters in life. NOT size. I do not expect either Malnuts nor Brucee KY to EEEEEEEVEN understand that concept in life.

Courtesy Brad Meyers III
Courtesy Brad Meyers III
Credit: The Chief
Eastern Slope McCloud Redband CT
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Aug 15, 2014 - 06:56am PT
New research links tornado strength, frequency to climate change
http://news.fsu.edu/More-FSU-News/New-research-links-tornado-strength-frequency-to-climate-change
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Aug 15, 2014 - 07:17am PT
Humans the biggest force driving glacier meltdown, new study says
http://www.theprovince.com/news/Humans+biggest+force+driving+glacier+meltdown+study+says/10118297/story.html

"Every year we drive stakes five metres deep into the glacier in the fall. We have to return and re-drill them in mid-summer because a lot of those stakes on the Athabasca Glacier, the one that a lot of people go visit, will be lying flat on the ice at that time.

"We're losing at least five metres a year on the surface of that glacier."
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/athabasca-glacier-could-disappear-within-generation-says-manager-1.2653641
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Aug 15, 2014 - 07:26am PT
Wow The Chief, you sure are proud of your graph, you posted it 5 times over the last couple of pages. Too bad you don't really understand what it represents:



Why did you pick less than 10 years of data? If you wanted to show a cooling trend, couldn't you just pick a month in the winter when the temperatures really plunge?



Fact is if this OBSERVED temp trend continues and is not interrupted for the next 10-15 years, it will clearly indicate Global Cooling. Per your own statement that 30 years of consistent weather/temps equals climate. Then we know how history will look back on your kind and all your AGW bs fear mongering eco-freak ideology.


And if the weather behaves like the models that are running on powerful servers predict, the ones run by scientists who actually know what they are doing, history will look back on your kind and wonder how we let you into the conversation for even a minute.
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Aug 15, 2014 - 07:42am PT
Credit: Malemute
Dr Richard Milne - Critical Thinking on Climate Change: Separating Skepticism from Denial
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gh9kDCuPuU8
at time 19:52

Credit: Malemute
ibid, time 25:04

Credit: Malemute
ibid, time 38:38

Credit: Malemute
ibid, time 40:46

Credit: Malemute
ibid, time 41:34

Credit: Malemute
ibid, time 57:24
The Chief

climber
Laughing at all the Sheep
Aug 15, 2014 - 08:46am PT
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Perfect example of the ideology you and AGW eco-freak libtardos proliferate, MALNUTS. Thanks for clearly showing us, AGAIN, what this AGW stuff is all about.








k-man

Gym climber
SCruz

Topic Author's Reply - Aug 15, 2014 - 07:26am PT
Too bad you don't really understand what it represents:





And if the weather behaves like the models that are running on powerful servers predict, the ones run by scientists who actually know what they are doing, history will look back on your kind and wonder how we let you into the conversation for even a minute.

I don't understand?




Then you state the ....

"Weather"

Priceless KMAN, utterly priceless.


You definitely are the AGW CLOWN CAR OWNER/OPERATOR.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Aug 15, 2014 - 09:09am PT
First off Bruce, some of us have to get up in the morning to accomplish actual work. Second, your jabbering about taking Ed apart over straight line chicken scratching is not something I want or have the abilty to do. Instead I depend on his old school scientific ethic to occaisionally rise above his obvious bias to produce little gold nuggets of reality contrary to the alarmist narrative. He did so again last night with his three time series plot. The red line plot, the only one long enough (1975-2013) to represent climate versus weather variability according to the common thirty definition of average trends, clearly showed we are in a period of no significant change other than a very slight long term cooling. The only bone I had to pick was his criticism if The Chief over projecting a trend based on a ten year cooling period while defending the CAGW narrative for similar projections and the attempt to erase significance of "the pause".

Phule, your a damn fool. Look at Chiloes posted graphs fron a few days ago and see if it at all clear who he originally ascribed authorship to before you run off at the mouth.


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