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The Chief

climber
Smiling at all you angry& negative blinded Sheep
Dec 9, 2014 - 02:28pm PT
Euros are the worst and most profuse smokers in the world. They hold the most seats on the IPCC as well.

Thanks for reaffirming the idiocy of all this AGW, Malnuts. Smoking = Idiots.


On average, 27 percent of people over 15 smoke across the 53 nations that make up the WHO’s European region
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-13/europeans-are-world-s-biggest-smokers-and-drinkers-who.html

And you Canadians sure are doing a pretty lame job of teaching your younger generations and college age young adults about the hazards of smoking...

The smoking rate in Canada is highest in the 20-24 year age group, for both men and women.

In 2011, 5.8 million Canadians 12 years and older smoked, a rate of 19.9 per cent.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/health/which-part-of-canada-has-the-most-smokers-1.1385838

You go Canada. Keep teaching your younger generations to be .... idiots.






Still waiting on KaveMAN or anyone else for that evidence to support your claim/s about me making a specific statement denying the CA Drought.
Wade Icey

Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
Dec 9, 2014 - 03:18pm PT
Euros are the worst and most profuse smokers in the world. They hold the most seats on the IPCC as well.

Ever been to japan...or a Japanese campsite in camp 4?
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
Maestro, Ecosystem Ministry, Fatcrackistan
Dec 9, 2014 - 04:06pm PT
Malemute is not upset.

DMT
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Dec 9, 2014 - 04:13pm PT
Thank you DMT.
Do you disagree with any of:
-the earth is warming.
-warmer air holds more water vapour.
-warmer air can pick up more moisture than colder air.
-warmer air can also dump more rain than colder air.
-the arctic is warming faster than the US.
-the smaller temperature differential south of the arctic enables the jet stream to form large loops.
-these loops allow weather systems to stay in one place longer than usual.
-this was the cause of the Calgary flood.


http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/alberta-floods-why-is-there-so-much-rain/8124/

http://www.ccrnetwork.ca/documents/2013%20Extreme%20Events%20Workshop/Pomeroy_overviewofhydrometeorologyCanadianRockiesflood_Feb2014.pdf
The Chief

climber
Smiling at all you angry& negative blinded Sheep
Dec 9, 2014 - 05:06pm PT
Malnuts....

Do you even read the shet you post?

From your ref:

The Canadian Rockies Flood of 2013 was big, but not extraordinary, and was likely neither the flood of a century, nor the flood of a lifetime.
http://www.ccrnetwork.ca/documents/2013%20Extreme%20Events%20Workshop/Pomeroy_overviewofhydrometeorologyCanadianRockiesflood_Feb2014.pdf

In other words, no BFD.

Sometimes, the jet stream pattern gets stuck or ‘blocked’ as we say in meteorology. This is the setup that took shape across western North America this week. The large ‘up’ or ridge in the jet stream which caused record warmth in Alaska and hot weather across parts of Canada’s north, blocked a strong dip in the jet stream from moving quickly from west to east. In the image below, the ‘H’ represents High pressure, or the up in the jet stream, and the ‘L’ represents Low pressure, or the down in the jet stream.

The key factors that led to the tremendous rainfall in Alberta can be summarized as follows:

 An upside-down or ‘blocked’ jet stream pattern across western North America

 A strong area of low pressure that developed and got stuck near southern Alberta because of the jet stream pattern.

 A moist channel of air from the Gulf of Mexico that was pulled up by the low pressure system and slammed up against the foothills and Rocky Mountains.
http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/alberta-floods-why-is-there-so-much-rain/8124/

Not a peep that states anything specific about being caused by AGW or the long term CC.


Keep smoking them skank cigs Malnuts.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 9, 2014 - 05:56pm PT
Not a single CO2 unfried brain amongst you CAGW scientific types, eh?

To have explained the interrelationship amongst the climate mechanisms I mentioned this morning would have been to elaborate on the basics of a climate change theory requiring very little radiative forcing from CO2. It fits the modern climate fluctuations, as well as historical fluctuations ,much better than the tortured defense you offer up here for the simplistic CO2 CAGW scam.

But, of course, your rigid ideology wont allow explanations deviating from the agenda. Pathetic it is.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 9, 2014 - 06:23pm PT
from the report that started the latest "discussion"

http://cpo.noaa.gov/sites/cpo/MAPP/Task%20Forces/DTF/californiadrought/california_drought_report.pdf

CAUSES AND PREDICTABILITY OF THE 2011-14 CALIFORNIA DROUGHT

Abstract


The causes and predictability of the California drought during the three consecutive rainy seasons (November-April) 2011/12 to 2013/14 are analyzed using observations and ensembles of simulations conducted with seven atmosphere models forced by observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Historically, dry California winters have most commonly been associated with a ridge off the west coast, part of a mid-latitude wave train having no obvious SST forcing. Wet winters have most commonly been associated with a trough off the west coast and an El Niño event. These attributes of dry and wet winters are captured by many of the models used in the current assessment. According to the models, up to a third of California winter precipitation variance can be explained in terms of SST forcing, with the majority explained by internal atmospheric variability. Nonetheless. SST-forcing was key to sustaining a ridge of high pressure over the west coast during each of the last three winters, and may have explained nearly one-third the CA precipitation deficits during the recent drought. In 2011/12 the forced component was a response to a La Niña event whereas in 2012/13 and 2013/14 it was related to a warm tropical west Pacific SST anomaly. All models contain a mode of climate variability that links west Pacific SST anomalies to a northeastward propagating wave train with a ridge off the North American west coast as part of its SST sensitivity during at least the last 35 years. This mode explains less variance than ENSO and Pacific decadal variability and its importance in 2012/13 and 2013/14 was unusual. The CMIP5 models project that rising greenhouse gases should increase California winter precipitation but that changes to date are small compared to the recent drought anomalies. As such, the recent drought was dominated by natural variability, a conclusion framed by a discussion of the differences between observed and modeled tropical SST trends over the past decades.

Interestingly, The Chief seems to be defending this report which has a substantial model input and includes a comparison to the CMIP5 runs.

How are the models considered "right" in this report, and "wrong" in others?

I'm not sure how many posting to this thread has actually read the report. Perhaps one might take that as a first step...

Bob Harrington

climber
Bishop, California
Dec 9, 2014 - 07:16pm PT
I read the Seager et al. report today. The gist of it is that the past three years of drought in California were driven by 'internal atmosphere variability' and sea surface temperature anomalies, not by human-induced greenhouse gas forcing. It looks like a well done modeling study, to the extent I understand it -- I'm no expert in this kind of modeling.

I guess we've at least reached consensus that GCM models are useful.

The linkage between SST's and California climate has been greatly exaggerated in the media. We've had very dry years during strong El Ninos (e.g. 1988) and wet years during La Nina (e.g. 2011) so the reliance on SST's to predict California precip is very tentative, as this paper acknowledges. The conclusions the paper are limited to the past three years, and don't address longer term trends in California climate. For a more general analysis of climate change effects on the southwest, see Richard Seagar's web page, where, from a 2007 publication, he concludes that the southwest US will become increasingly arid due to greenhouse gas emissions, the transition to a drier climate may already be underway, and that this is a robust climate modeling result.
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Dec 9, 2014 - 07:26pm PT
Take home lessons:

Southwestern North America and other subtropical regions are going to become increasingly arid as a consequence of rising greenhouse gases.
The transition to a drier climate should already be underway and will become well established in the coming years to decades, akin to permanent drought conditions.
This is a robust result in climate model projections that has its source in well represented changes in the atmospheric hydrological cycle related to both rising humidity in a warmer atmosphere and poleward shifts of atmospheric circulation features.

An imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America
Richard Seager
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University

http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/drought/science.shtml
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 9, 2014 - 07:32pm PT
Even a blind pig can find an acorn once in a while.

are you speaking from personal experience?
TGT

Social climber
So Cal
Dec 9, 2014 - 07:35pm PT
http://www.thepiratescove.us/2014/12/08/if-all-you-see-1337/
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 9, 2014 - 07:47pm PT
To have explained the interrelationship amongst the climate mechanisms I mentioned this morning would have been to elaborate on the basics of a climate change theory requiring very little radiative forcing from CO2. It fits the modern climate fluctuations, as well as historical fluctuations ,...

if you have detailed models, rick show them... put them up against the "standard models..."

in fact, point us to the output files from your model(s) so we can include them in discussions... you know, like the outputs available from all the current climate models.

I'd readily put them on various plots for comparison... just show me where the outputs are...

The Chief

climber
Smiling at all you angry& negative blinded Sheep
Dec 9, 2014 - 07:48pm PT



Malemute

Ice climber
great white north

Dec 9, 2014 - 07:26pm PT
Take home lessons:

Southwestern North America and other subtropical regions are going to become increasingly arid as a consequence of rising greenhouse gases.
The transition to a drier climate should already be underway and will become well established in the coming years to decades, akin to permanent drought conditions.
This is a robust result in climate model projections that has its source in well represented changes in the atmospheric hydrological cycle related to both rising humidity in a warmer atmosphere and poleward shifts of atmospheric circulation features.

An imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America
Richard Seager
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University

You mean like the regularity of droughts that occurred in the past 25K years according the several recent tree ring studies. Some lasting upwards of 120 or so years?

In other words, nothing new in the long term of Earth's time.
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Dec 10, 2014 - 07:10am PT
The Polar Sea: An Unprecedented Look at the Northwest Passage
Narrated by Gordon Pinsent
videos at http://tvo.org/story/polar-sea-unprecedented-look-northwest-passage#watchPolarSea
'magazine' at http://www.polarsea360.com/episodes/01/
Norwegian

Trad climber
dancin on the tip of god's middle finger
Dec 10, 2014 - 07:24am PT
shut the f*#k up both of you
im the d#@&%ebag around here.
raining
Norton

Social climber
quitcherbellyachin
Dec 10, 2014 - 08:26am PT
there is really only one serious problem with personal insults

and that is that someone will report the post to ChrisMac or RJ

who both said a week ago that such posts would not be tolerated and should be reported

then one is deactivated, with no apparent warning, other than many of them through the years
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 10, 2014 - 08:40am PT
I mean, who would get so butt hurt over little ouchy words to do that?


I don't post here and read this forum to get attacked or to see others get attacked. The clowns that begin the ad homs attacks should pack it up--it only brings this forum down. The consequence is that folks who have good contributions to make leave.

So what do you want, the forum to wallow down in the cesspool of insults and negative attacks, or should we attempt to clean it up.
dirtbag

climber
Dec 10, 2014 - 08:42am PT
Maybe both of you guys should do some post editing and move on.
crunch

Social climber
CO
Dec 10, 2014 - 08:53am PT
In case you don't already understand this, a "drought" is not the "norm." Here, take a look:

drought
noun
a prolonged period of abnormally low rainfall; a shortage of water resulting from this.


So what are you saying above The Chief when you state that the conditions were "THE NORM!!!!"?


Just because I stated it was the "Norm" does it no where state there is NO DROUGHT.

Are you trying to say that the "drought" is then norm, meaning there is no drought? If not, then what do you mean??

Watch out here The Chief, your credibility might be at stake!

Isn't it the case that as we learn more about what was going on hundreds and even thousands of year ago our idea of "normal" is evolving.

In particular, whatever has been considered as "normal" California climate by 20th century standards is too limited and that a real "normal" California climate includes intermittent but multi-years-long droughts?

And that the current drought is not outside of what we now understand to be California's "norm."

I thought this was NOAA's point, when it declined to blame AGW for the current drought.
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 10, 2014 - 09:20am PT
Sketch is gone.
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