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The Chief

climber
Laughing at all the Sheep
Aug 14, 2014 - 09:15pm PT
Very good EDH. Now what is linear trend (OLS) for the above graph EDH

I bet it will look something very similar to this...

Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Aug 14, 2014 - 09:20pm PT
why do you say it is very good?

and what trend do you want to plot?
linear, logarithmic, polynomial (and the order), power, exponential, moving average,... ?

and why?

[edit]
why a linear trend?

what is the meaning of a linear trend, The Chief?

if you project your trend back in time, will it agree with the earlier temperature anomaly?

(none of those plots use the NOAA data, would you please use that data, I gave you a link to it upthread).
The Chief

climber
Laughing at all the Sheep
Aug 14, 2014 - 09:24pm PT
Nice deflection Professor. Nice.


But this is exactly what you have been avoiding to indicate all along...




Fact is, the temps globally have been trending downward.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Aug 14, 2014 - 09:24pm PT
As we all know ,the period you are requesting Chief , using Ed's above data points would differ markedly from the german bloggers illustration ( or NOAA if you accept Larry's word in lieu of citation) presented by Larry yesterday. It would show a steep dive from the preceeding five year period. This would strongly indicate the temp anomaly spike produced subsequent to the 98 super El Nino was just a temporary weather change not in accord with the monotonous rise projected by the totality of the IPCC sanctioned GCM's. What Ed presented in his three plots is as good as it gets from him, unless of course he plots back to the thirties using raw unaltered data. This would show a much stronger cooling trend than the near zero anomaly of the red line plot.


Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Aug 14, 2014 - 09:26pm PT
I'm not avoiding anything, The Chief,

I am asking you some questions before supplying the plots...

please indicate why you would use a linear plot, what does it mean? linear trend?
what does it tell you about the climate?


I thought we were talking about the NOAA data, would you please use that data.
The Chief

climber
Laughing at all the Sheep
Aug 14, 2014 - 09:31pm PT
It will also indicate Rick, how the modeling and it's rising trend predicting process is not keeping up with the observed data.

IF this global "cooling" trend continues for the next 18- 20 years, it will clearly indicate how all this alarmism on the part of these Eco Freaks was just a major ploy to get their agenda on the table and implemented.


EDH, that was my initial request from you. But you insisted on deflecting and not coming through with the obvious graph that will surely indicate the cooling in the past 10+ years.

Good try EDH.

Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Aug 14, 2014 - 09:38pm PT
Arguing With Your Crazy Uncle About Climate Change
http://davidbrin.blogspot.ca/2011/10/arguing-with-your-crazy-uncle-about.html


Defining Climate "Deniers" and "Skeptics"
By David Brin, Ph.D.
http://www.davidbrin.com/climatechange2.html

The Real Struggle Behind Climate Change - A War on Expertise
http://open.salon.com/blog/david_brin/2010/02/09/the_real_struggle_behind_climate_change_-_a_war_on_expertise
blahblah

Gym climber
Boulder
Aug 14, 2014 - 09:41pm PT
I hate to take sides on the details of this and I always have to add the caveat that perhaps Ed's got yet another "trick" up his sleeve, but . . .
looks like The Chief's got Ed pinned down on this one.
(Ed has, I must say, done an admirable job of attempting to "hide the decline" as they like to say in warmist circles! He's got a near bottomless bag of tricks of semantic obfuscation, multiple data sets, appeals to (unnecessary) complex math, etc. But it's kind of like the famous scene in the Wizard of Oz--sometimes when you're caught, you're caught!)
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Aug 14, 2014 - 09:45pm PT
Credit: Ed Hartouni

here you go, The Chief, the green line is your 9 year trend from 2005 to 2013...

that linear trend doesn't tell us anything about the climate, it just tells us the average rate of the temperature anomaly change over that time period.

If we took your assertion seriously, that it predicts the future, then we would expect that it would agree with the past, too.

As you can see, it doesn't.

However, what about those green filled black circles? they seem to do a much better job...

that is a plot of the climate models, an average over all the model runs... which does a considerably better job then your linear trend...

here it is for that shorter period of time
Credit: Ed Hartouni


these models are quite complex including the CO2 increases, the various physical phenomena related to the climate, including the solar variations, ENSO, and all that... basically everything we understand about the climate.

looks like they do a considerably better job than a linear trend on 9 years worth of data.
The Chief

climber
Laughing at all the Sheep
Aug 14, 2014 - 09:51pm PT
Thank you. Just as I thought EDH. We have been in an obvious Cooling period for the past ten years. Regardless the various forcing mechs.

Now, IF this current cooling continues for the next 15-20 years, what will that clearly indicate? Especially if the models DO NOT correspond to the negative trend nor the C02 levels act in conjunction with the negative temp trend?

Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Aug 14, 2014 - 09:54pm PT
you model doesn't work, The Chief...

it is in very bad agreement in the past... it isn't at all reasonable. How do you explain that your model says the anomaly should have been +3F in 1980 when it was observed to be around 0F?
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Aug 14, 2014 - 09:55pm PT
I hate to take sides on the details of this and I always have to add the caveat that perhaps Ed's got yet another "trick" up his sleeve, but . . .
looks like The Chief's got Ed pinned down on this one.

Look Blah, if you have no idea what is going on, what point is there to pick a side as you put it? If you really think that Ed is honest, then just sit back and learn something, if you can.

Or perhaps all that stuff about you being sure of Eds honesty was in fact not exactly honest?

Did you pick up your ethics at the Patent office?
The Chief

climber
Laughing at all the Sheep
Aug 14, 2014 - 09:55pm PT
Ah, what model are you referring to EDH.

This is the ONLY graph I have posted. Observed Data from HADCRUT4, RSSMSU & GISTEMP from 2005-2014


Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Aug 14, 2014 - 09:56pm PT
the model of a linear trend in the temperature anomaly...

that is your model.
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Aug 14, 2014 - 10:02pm PT
I just don't think its sinking in yet.
The Chief

climber
Laughing at all the Sheep
Aug 14, 2014 - 10:06pm PT
It is obvious Brucee KY that it has yet to sink in for you all. The different OBSERVED DATA SETS clearly indicate the temps are in a negative trend the past 9 to 10 years.

Something you all keep manipulating in order to avoid accepting the... Truth.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Aug 14, 2014 - 10:06pm PT
I see your plot

and if I understand your argument, you are saying that you can predict what the future temperature anomaly is going to be by assuming that the linear trend correctly calculates it into the future.

Your model is that the rate of change of the temperature anomaly is constant, and set by the temperature anomalies from the year 2005 to 2013.

However, if we take your model seriously, we should also be able to calculate what the past temperature anomaly was, which I have done for you here

Credit: Ed Hartouni

when we calculate the temperature anomaly 20 years ago, we see that your linear model badly disagrees with the data...

why would you expect it to predict the next 20 years?
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Aug 14, 2014 - 10:07pm PT
8. I don't care, I hate science:

Yep, that is the fall-back refrain. Hatred of people who know stuff. Not just science, but also teachers, diplomats, journalists, lawyers, professors, medical doctors, civil servants, skilled union labor... you name a caste of knowledge and professional intellect -- of knowing stuff - and it's under attack. Most vigorously by the foxed right (making Barry Goldwater and William F. Buckley spin in their graves) but also by the loony far-left.

Pragmatic-moderate problem solving and negotiation were great American virtues. Culture War is betrayal. Treason. And the chief purpose of denialism.

ClimateSkepticsAgain. Scientists aren't being dissed in order to detract from the theory of climate change. Climate change denialism is being pushed in order to help know-nothing-ism win the War on Science. If our generation fails this test - if you refuse to do your part by rescuing some salvageable conservative, luring him or her back to the version of conservatism professed by real men like Buckley - then welcome to the Dark Ages.

http://davidbrin.blogspot.ca/2011/10/arguing-with-your-crazy-uncle-about.html
The Chief

climber
Laughing at all the Sheep
Aug 14, 2014 - 10:22pm PT
why would you expect it to predict the next 20 years?

Where am I predicting the next 20 years EDH.

My point was to show how we are in a cooling trend. Have been for at least the past 10-15 years. Your latest plot verifies that EDH. And as RICK S stated earlier, if this "cooling" trend continues through the next 20 or so years, it will seriously put in question all these models AND the human caused CC Warming fear mongering ideology that your AGW brigade has been proliferating the past 10 or so years.
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Aug 14, 2014 - 10:23pm PT
Rick Sumner has fallen silent.

He is after all, ever so slightly smarter than the Chuff.


Curious. Just a short moment ago the Blah, Chuff and Dumbner team was smelling blood and were circling for the kill. Their moment of vanquishing the almghty Smaug of Stupor Torpor science was at last at hand after years of trial and error.

Well, excusively error actually.

Anyhoo, Rick sure picked a strange time to go off and fix a leaky toilet.
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