Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

Search
Go

Discussion Topic

Return to Forum List
Post a Reply
Messages 25081 - 25100 of total 26482 in this topic << First  |  < Previous  |  Show All  |  Next >  |  Last >>
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 9, 2014 - 07:45am PT
Now for the REST OF THE STORY from the report....

The Chief, your quote is not from the report or the link you give. In fact, the link you provide says this:

Is the California Drought a symptom of long term climate change?
The current drought is not part of a long-term change in California precipitation, which exhibits no appreciable trend since 1895. Key oceanic features that caused precipitation inhibiting atmospheric ridging off the West Coast during 2011-14 were symptomatic of natural internal atmosphere-ocean variability.

Model simulations indicate that human-induced climate change increases California precipitation in mid-winter, with a low-pressure circulation anomaly over the North Pacific, opposite to conditions of the last 3 winters. The same model simulations indicate a decrease in spring precipitation over California. However, precipitation deficits observed during the past three years are an order of magnitude greater than the model simulated changes related to human-induced forcing. Nonetheless, record setting high temperature that accompanied this recent drought was likely made more extreme due to human-induced global warming.




Beginning on page 25, the CA drought report itself talks about the possibility of the drought being human induced. Here's an excerpt:

For both the current decade and the next two-decade period, there is a widespread area of subtropical drying as measured by a reduction of P and stronger reduction of P − E which dries Mexico and parts of Arizona, New Mexico and Texas. This pattern is consistent with expectations of hydroclimate change due to rising GHGs (Seager et al. 2014b).

OK, pretty interesting. Then it says this:

For the current decade this drying area includes California but is very weak. In contrast, for the future period, California north of San Diego and Los Angeles is projected to have an increase in winter half-year P and a slightly smaller increase in P − E (presumably because warming temperatures cause an increase in winter E). The change in California is made up of an increase in mid-winter P but a decrease in spring that connects with the interior southwest drying (Neelin et al. 2013; Pierce et al. 2013, Gao et al. 2014). The slight drying in the current decade arises because the spring drying proceeds faster than the mid-winter wetting. Hence, for California, the models project an emerging shorter, sharper wet season.



The Chief, I can't find in the report where it says the drought was not caused by global warming, can you?
The Chief

climber
Smiling at all you angry& negative blinded Sheep
Dec 9, 2014 - 07:57am PT
You have to actually read the report KMAN!

What factors caused the California Drought?


 Weather conditions were key to explaining the event - a high pressure ridge off the West Coast diverted the track of storms during all three winters, typical of historical droughts.

 West Coast high pressure was rendered more likely during 2011-14 by effects of sea surface temperature patterns over the world oceans.

 The drought's first year (2011/2012) was likely the most predictable, when La Nina effects largely explained high pressure off the West Coast, though simulations indicate that high pressure continued to be favored due to ocean effects in 2012-14.
http://cpo.noaa.gov/ClimatePrograms/ModelingAnalysisPredictionsandProjections/MAPPTaskForces/DroughtTaskForce/CaliforniaDrought.aspx

"Typical".


In other words, nothing abnormal nor atypical of the current drought that has occurred many times in the past 25k years. Many far more extreme than the current one. Tree Ring studies I posted earlier this year have clearly indicated that.

ENSO and La Nina. Imagine that KMAN. Not a peep about humans causing the drought. Not a word.
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 9, 2014 - 08:05am PT
There you go cherry picking again The Chief.

The very next bullet in the link you provide (which is not the report, BTW), says this:

-- West Coast high pressure was rendered more likely during 2011-14 by effects of sea surface temperature patterns over the world oceans.



Hmmm, high ocean temperatures. Where have I heard about this before?

Again, I don't see where the NOAA site says the drought was not caused by human-induced warming.

Of course, nor does it say say it was influenced by human activity--NOAA seems to be very cautious about identifying the cause of the warmer ocean, which it does say is largely responsible for the drought.



So The Chief, you're now admitting that CA has been in a drought. Change of face for you, no?
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 9, 2014 - 08:07am PT
How does the graph I POSTED parrot the graph CHILOE POSTED???


Oh man, are you a troubled child.
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
Maestro, Ecosystem Ministry, Fatcrackistan
Dec 9, 2014 - 08:08am PT
-- West Coast high pressure was rendered more likely during 2011-14 by effects of sea surface temperature patterns over the world oceans.


The chief will be correct in pointing out sea surface temperatures have always been responsible for the west coast blocking high. What's different THIS time?

Sorry. I don't see the connection between global warming and THIS drought in California.

DMT
The Chief

climber
Smiling at all you angry& negative blinded Sheep
Dec 9, 2014 - 08:12am PT
When did I ever state we were NOT in a drought KMAN??


Post up where I stated such a thing.


La Nina(indicated in blue)... oh my!

Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
Maestro, Ecosystem Ministry, Fatcrackistan
Dec 9, 2014 - 08:14am PT
When did I ever state we were NOT in a drought KMAN??

You're laughable. Of course you've stated we were not in a drought.

DMT
The Chief

climber
Smiling at all you angry& negative blinded Sheep
Dec 9, 2014 - 08:14am PT
When.. Dingus.

When?


Or are you on the "ASSUMING" bus as are the rest here.










PSSSSSSSSSSSSSST. I have stated repeatedly that the current "drought" was a typical naturally occurring event. Never did I state it was NOT occurring.








Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
Maestro, Ecosystem Ministry, Fatcrackistan
Dec 9, 2014 - 08:15am PT
LOL.

DMT
The Chief

climber
Smiling at all you angry& negative blinded Sheep
Dec 9, 2014 - 08:17am PT
Exactly... LOL.

Of course you've stated we were not in a drought.

Post it up Dingus.






PSSSSSSSSSSSSST! You can't. But nice try.



As MONO states, "keep swinging". Or should I say, keep ASSUMING.
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
Maestro, Ecosystem Ministry, Fatcrackistan
Dec 9, 2014 - 08:47am PT
No need to assume..

DMT
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Dec 9, 2014 - 09:04am PT
I don't see the connection between global warming and THIS drought in California.

There may not be a directly observable connection, but as the globe warms, droughts will intensify.
http://news.stanford.edu/news/2014/september/drought-climate-change-092914.html

And just in case anybody doesn't yet get how a warming climate changes the weather:



http://www.mediaite.com/tv/neil-degrasse-tyson-and-his-adorable-dog-shut-down-climate-deniers/
http://www.globaltv.com/entertainmentnews/2014/may/neil_degrasse_tyson_schools_climate_change_deniers_with_an_analogy_about_walking_a_dog/
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
Maestro, Ecosystem Ministry, Fatcrackistan
Dec 9, 2014 - 09:10am PT
There may not be a directly observable connection

May not? More like 'there isn't' ?

The drought intensification threat is not compelling enough to hang my California drought hat on the global warming peg especially given there IS NO direct evidence.

DMT
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 9, 2014 - 09:24am PT
Speaking of the Cali drought: how does the true cause of the modest 20th century global warming of .6c (induced by a prolonged period of high solar activity, decrease of albedo due to a long period 1980-2000 of lessened cloud cover therefore lessened albedo, increased sw storage of heat in the oceans and its release by el ninos, global oceanic turnovers and gyres etc.) , the RRR causation of the cali drought , El Nino, anomalous oceanic hotspots like the one currently in the gulf ofalaska, and excursions of the polar vortex into large portions of the mid lattitude NH ,with resultant increased severity of winters, interrelate? Any scientists out there without CO2 fried brains care to answer?
The Chief

climber
Smiling at all you angry& negative blinded Sheep
Dec 9, 2014 - 09:37am PT
There may not be a directly observable connection, but as the globe warms, droughts will intensify.

Yup.. they sure will. They will match those many other "Typical" droughts of the SW that occurred the past 25k years. All of which lasted upwards of 100 years or greater. None of which were caused by any humans.


Through studies of tree rings, sediment and other natural evidence, researchers have documented multiple droughts in California that lasted 10 or 20 years in a row during the past 1,000 years -- compared to the mere three-year duration of the current dry spell. The two most severe megadroughts make the Dust Bowl of the 1930s look tame: a 240-year-long drought that started in 850 and, 50 years after the conclusion of that one, another that stretched at least 180 years.
http://www.mercurynews.com/science/ci_24993601/california-drought-past-dry-periods-have-lasted-more


Ya know you are seriously desperate when climate scientist must resort to using walking a dog on a leash to mimic CAGW. Notice how the dog walker pulls on the leash to make it turn directions. Pretty clear how the current consensus does their work as well. Manipulate the facts (dog) to make them do as you want them to. Nice Malnuts.
The Chief

climber
Smiling at all you angry& negative blinded Sheep
Dec 9, 2014 - 09:45am PT
LOL! Dingus CAN'T nor will he Sketch.



He is stuck on the nice warm "assuming" bus.



But hey, thanks for at least concurring with me on the fact that this current drought is nothing atypical.
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 9, 2014 - 10:07am PT
The Chief
Jun 10, 2013 - 07:19pm PT

And here's The Chief back again with his wet finger. Fresh from a lake, he can claim (with that wet finger) that there is no drought in California.

Another example of the fatalistic trumpeting. Central to Southern California is historically a Very Dry Temperate Climate Zone. Thus, this "Drought" you speak of, is actual the norm.


So The Chief, is it a drought or is it the norm (it cannot be both).
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 9, 2014 - 10:17am PT
Dingus, I see the models claim that high SST have been the cause of our recent dry spell.

The report states that the drought is not caused by warmer/dryer air. What it says is the the drought is caused by the ridge formed by warmer oceans. And that it is typical for CA to experience droughts when this condition occurs.

The report does not go into the details of the cause of the raised ocean temp. But, we know the oceans have been capturing a lot of the trapped heat.

I am not saying that the drought was, or was not, caused by human-induced warming. What I am saying is that the headlines stating this is is not caused by human-induced warming is "sensationalism" (as you and Sketch like to say of the climate reporting).

The report itself does not identify the root cause of the warming oceans > HP Ridge > Western NA drought, and it is misleading to imply that it does.


What the report does say is this:

Much coverage and discussion of the California drought has raised the question of whether human-driven climate change is in any way responsible. This is a reasonable question because models project that southwest North America as a whole will become more arid as a result of rising greenhouse gases (Seager et al. 2007, 2013; Maloney et al. 2014). Determining human-induced climate change from the observational record is difficult. ...
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Dec 9, 2014 - 10:18am PT
The Chief, from the drought thread.

We currently stand some 1.9" or so from equally 2007's total snowfall at Mammoth Pass.

As of this morning, Mammoth Pass LADWP SS is indicating 20.1". Total for Mammoth Pass in 2007 was 22.0".


Never once heard any mention of any "Drought" in the Spring of 2007 when snow levels here on the Eastside were at what we are close to seeing.
The Chief

climber
Smiling at all you angry& negative blinded Sheep
Dec 9, 2014 - 10:24am PT
MONO... Assuming again.


Show where I stated anything about NO DROUGHT?


monolith

climber
SF bay area

Dec 9, 2014 - 10:18am PT
The Chief, from the drought thread.

We currently stand some 1.9" or so from equally 2007's total snowfall at Mammoth Pass.

As of this morning, Mammoth Pass LADWP SS is indicating 20.1". Total for Mammoth Pass in 2007 was 22.0".


Never once heard any mention of any "Drought" in the Spring of 2007 when snow levels here on the Eastside were at what we are close to seeing

Simply asked why there was no mention of a drought in 2007 when snow levels were pretty much equal to those indicated last Spring.
Messages 25081 - 25100 of total 26482 in this topic << First  |  < Previous  |  Show All  |  Next >  |  Last >>
Return to Forum List
Post a Reply
 
Our Guidebooks
Check 'em out!
SuperTopo Guidebooks


Try a free sample topo!

 
SuperTopo on the Web

Review Categories
Recent Route Beta
Recent Gear Reviews