Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Aug 14, 2014 - 08:06pm PT
What is escaping me gland mam, is the rising u.s. temps that used to be claimed in breathless report after breathless report by the sky is falling crowd for the period of the 80's through 90's. Has the data been reinterpreted, and the past cooled for this period In order for a claim of warming to be made instead of a fifteen year pause. Still, even with the step change of the super El Nino ,and rough plateau (the pause) of subsequent years, the entire satellite era time series plot ( the only plot long enough to be considered climate versus weather change as per your guys interpretation) shows no upward slope. Just the single step change anomaly aversge of 2000-2013 that will have to corrected downwards with the sinking solar activity as enough future years are added to approach an average of weather over a minimum period of thirty years as the red plot shows.

Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Aug 14, 2014 - 08:13pm PT
from the Economist OpEd…

example

1) PLOS paper, subject: psychology, sociology, independent experiments failed to replicate the result

2) biomedical research replication failures, as shown by independent attempts to perform the same experiements

3) analysis of the statistics used in many biomedical research papers is incorrect

4) similar analysis of Psychology research areas

5) Pentaquarks, please see my papers on this… the result was immediately questioned by the community and additional analysis of independent experiments. The “double blind” experiments weren’t a factor…
http://journals.aps.org/prl/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevLett.95.152001
http://qd.typepad.com/35/2005/09/free_coca_cola_.html
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/306/5700/1281.summary
(here’s the article: http://www.sciencemadness.org/talk/files.php?pid=217293&aid=15388 )

the original experiment was repeated, and analyzed using double-blind methodology, and didn’t see anything, but the evidence wasn’t there in the other, independent experiments long before then.

6) Genetics

7) Trick papers - I find this quite unfortunate, sending intentionally incorrect papers to be reviewed to “test” the reviewers. These results are eventually reviewed if they are important results by someone else, independently. If they are incorrect, they are so revealed.

nearly all of the examples are in biomedical research, this does not represent “all science” by a long shot, and obviously, given the financial stakes in the private sector, one might even guess that you’d find a huge pressure there.

However, these cases are all found out because they could be replicated, or if insufficient information is available, discovered in the attempt to replicate.

That is to say, science works.

I found this interesting quote in the article, too:

“Statisticians have ways to deal with such problems. But most scientists are not statisticians.”

How interesting that Chiloe is a statistician, and so is aware of “such problems” but is discounted by those who feel they are “hornswoggled”.
The Chief

climber
Laughing at all the Sheep
Aug 14, 2014 - 08:13pm PT
Hey Malmuts, thanks for showing how the AGW Industrial Complex is growing globally. At this rate, it should overtake Wal-Mart in staffing in the next 16-24 months. Of course it has no revenue and exists solely on each nations gov'ts funding via taxes. The peoples money.

Awesome.
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Aug 14, 2014 - 08:14pm PT
The PRECIS Regional Climate Modelling System

PRECIS is developed at the Met Office Hadley Centre, is a regional climate modelling system designed to run on a Linux based PC and can be easily applied to any area of the globe to generate detailed climate change projections.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/precis/
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Aug 14, 2014 - 08:17pm PT
"...are they not trend plots"

they are trend plots, rick, you don't know what you are talking about. Nor The Chief,

Please explain what you mean by "trend plot" The Chief can too. What are you trending?

In the plots I have posted, the "trend" is for the anomaly to be constant, as I explained above. The Chief (and now you) are asking for a different trend, what is it you are asking for.

We can see from my plots that a time independent "trend" is probably not a good description of the temperature anomaly.

rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Aug 14, 2014 - 08:20pm PT
Found out because they could (not) be replicated Ed. And by the way thanks for your graphic admission in your above plots that there is no global warming , just a relatively short weather change, on our little patch of the planet. As good as it gets, or so it has been said.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Aug 14, 2014 - 08:24pm PT
...you are delusional.

My graphs show what the average temperature anomalies are for different time periods, and nothing more.

How do you conclude that there is no climate change from that?
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Aug 14, 2014 - 08:32pm PT
Isn't it you that said only weather change over a minimum period of thirty years can be considered as climate change? The only plot on your graph over a thirty year period is the red line which according to you shows a global cooling climate on our little patch of the planet. Thanks for your contribution and could you please step on gland mams dikk.
The Chief

climber
Laughing at all the Sheep
Aug 14, 2014 - 08:34pm PT
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA

Aug 14, 2014 - 08:17pm PT
"...are they not trend plots"

they are trend plots, rick, you don't know what you are talking about. Nor The Chief,

Please explain what you mean by "trend plot" The Chief can too. What are you trending?

In the plots I have posted, the "trend" is for the anomaly to be constant, as I explained above. The Chief (and now you) are asking for a different trend, what is it you are asking for.

We can see from my plots that a time independent "trend" is probably not a good description of the temperature anomaly

EDH, time period 2005-2013 to correlate with Larrys graph he posted yesterday, simple. That was my one and only request yesterday. After over a dozen deflection posts from you, you have yet to graph that requested period showing the avg.

Why is that so difficult for you EDH??

Here is Larry's graph, again. SO, can you please do your crayon magic to correlate to the time period indicated in his graph. Simple request.





It is obvious why you EDH keep deflecting and have yet to do so. You know what the results will indicate.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Aug 14, 2014 - 08:53pm PT
Credit: Ed Hartouni
it wasn't Chiloe's plot, it was NOAA's plot... but...
here it is, I provided it up thread, with the average for the time period plotted on it...

is that average good description of the data?

why won't you answer?
The Chief

climber
Laughing at all the Sheep
Aug 14, 2014 - 08:58pm PT
EDH .... Stop deflecting.


2005-2013 NOT 2000-2013, please. With the indicated AVG/Trend.


Why is that soooooooooooooo hard???
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Aug 14, 2014 - 08:59pm PT
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Aug 14, 2014 - 09:07pm PT
Why is that soooooooooooooo hard???

I don't know, you tell me, you can't do it, why is it so hard?
The Chief

climber
Laughing at all the Sheep
Aug 14, 2014 - 09:11pm PT
It is obvious now EDH why you are refusing to do so. You know exactly what it is going to indicate... a negative avg/trend. Which in turn verifies the "pause" and an obvious downward trend in temps. That plateau of course has NOT been indicated in any of the 69 plus CC models.

It will also show the growing widening gap between the temps and the increasing C02.

Both raising serious questions as to the accuracy of the modeling as a predictor and the C02 driving the temps theory.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Aug 14, 2014 - 09:12pm PT
Credit: Ed Hartouni

here is the average


is this a good description of the data?
The Chief

climber
Laughing at all the Sheep
Aug 14, 2014 - 09:15pm PT
Very good EDH. Now what is linear trend (OLS) for the above graph EDH

I bet it will look something very similar to this...

Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Aug 14, 2014 - 09:20pm PT
why do you say it is very good?

and what trend do you want to plot?
linear, logarithmic, polynomial (and the order), power, exponential, moving average,... ?

and why?

[edit]
why a linear trend?

what is the meaning of a linear trend, The Chief?

if you project your trend back in time, will it agree with the earlier temperature anomaly?

(none of those plots use the NOAA data, would you please use that data, I gave you a link to it upthread).
The Chief

climber
Laughing at all the Sheep
Aug 14, 2014 - 09:24pm PT
Nice deflection Professor. Nice.


But this is exactly what you have been avoiding to indicate all along...




Fact is, the temps globally have been trending downward.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Aug 14, 2014 - 09:24pm PT
As we all know ,the period you are requesting Chief , using Ed's above data points would differ markedly from the german bloggers illustration ( or NOAA if you accept Larry's word in lieu of citation) presented by Larry yesterday. It would show a steep dive from the preceeding five year period. This would strongly indicate the temp anomaly spike produced subsequent to the 98 super El Nino was just a temporary weather change not in accord with the monotonous rise projected by the totality of the IPCC sanctioned GCM's. What Ed presented in his three plots is as good as it gets from him, unless of course he plots back to the thirties using raw unaltered data. This would show a much stronger cooling trend than the near zero anomaly of the red line plot.


Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Aug 14, 2014 - 09:26pm PT
I'm not avoiding anything, The Chief,

I am asking you some questions before supplying the plots...

please indicate why you would use a linear plot, what does it mean? linear trend?
what does it tell you about the climate?


I thought we were talking about the NOAA data, would you please use that data.
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