Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Mar 19, 2015 - 10:25am PT
Right. Dr. Quacko, salivate over those melting ice cubes and suffer us the plight of those increased population, yet endangered P-Bears.

Me I don't got no polar bears data, and hadn't thought about them when writing that note. I'm more like, "Ask not for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for thee."

But just to help those cartoons in your head keep on flashing, here's something chick_on_ice posted a few weeks ago, mentioning polar bears on her thread, Hello from the Arctic Sea:

Basically there's a ton of open sea out here even though in the photos it looks like it's all frozen solid. Sea ice isn't like lake water since it's salty (obvious I know, but some people forget that salty water takes longer and colder temperatures to freeze than freshwater). The polar bears are out in full force this year because they're not getting enough to eat. So they can't be out on the pack ice since....there's not much ice out there for them to hunt on. So they're starting to be closer to the landmass, where since the sea is not as deep here, the water freezes over. So in summary, if you look from the 'beach' outside my hut, you'll see ice for miles, but if you get more than a mile out from the land, you start coming upon huge stretches of unfrozen sea ice. Just observations.

And completing the circle, that "unfrozen sea ice" she mentions is contributing to the possibly record-low maximum extent that I mentioned.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Mar 19, 2015 - 11:28am PT
It aint literature Wade, it's art. Given your job title you should appreaciate that.

Now, the rest of yous, cry us some rivers over the P-Bears. We could use the precip out on the western fringe of the continent.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Mar 19, 2015 - 12:46pm PT
Now, the rest of yous, cry us some rivers over the P-Bears. We could use the precip out on the western fringe of the continent.

I live on the Right Coast where it's freezing cold today and we've still got a couple feet of snow, so even as a cartoon that won't work. Can you cry your own river? It does look dry out your way.


Bob D'A

Trad climber
Taos, NM
Mar 19, 2015 - 12:59pm PT
I bet Sumner can see Russia from his house.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Mar 19, 2015 - 01:08pm PT
The valley up North where I reside is full of Russkis. So yes Bob, in a way you could say thats true.
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Mar 20, 2015 - 06:54am PT


But here’s the most upsetting news. It’s been exactly 30 years since the last time the world was briefly cooler than its 20th-century average. Every single month since February 1985 has been hotter than the long-term average—that’s 360 consecutive months.

More than just being a round number, the 30-year streak has deeper significance. In climatology, a continuous 30-year stretch of data is traditionally what’s used to define what’s “normal” for a given location. In a very real way, we can now say that for our given location—the planet Earth—global warming is now “normal.” Forget debating—our climate has officially changed.

This 30-year streak should change the way we think and talk about this issue. We’ve entered a new era in which global warming is a defining characteristic and a fundamental driver of what it means to be an inhabitant of planet Earth. We should treat it that way. For those who care about the climate, that may mean de-emphasizing statistics and science and beginning to talk more confidently about the moral implications of continuing on our current path.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/03/19/thirty_years_of_above_average_temperatures_mean_we_re_entering_a_new_era.html
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Mar 20, 2015 - 07:16am PT


http://www.wired.com/2015/03/arctic-ice-extent-hits-30-year-low/
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Mar 20, 2015 - 10:51am PT
Smithsonian agreed to not disclose Willie Soon's funding sources and allowed Southern Company to review 'deliverables' before publication.

http://blog.ucsusa.org/willie-soon-climate-research-disinformation-637
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Mar 20, 2015 - 11:51am PT
Yeah it will be interesting to see what their internal investigation concludes. Willie Soon takes the fall and rightly so because his name is on papers where journal policy explicitly calls for disclosure. But back at the Institution, someone else went along and cashed checks.
timy

Sport climber
Durango
Mar 20, 2015 - 12:05pm PT
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/content/rick-wiles-homosexuality-and-abortion-rights-caused-california-drought

You see, mankind is the cause of climate change!

At least some of these freaks recognize it, even if they get the reasons wrong..
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Mar 20, 2015 - 12:18pm PT
I do, however, believe that corporations which deliberately, purposefully, maliciously and systematically sponsor climate lies should be given the death penalty. This can be accomplished through an existing legal proceeding known as “charter revocation.” State Attorneys General can invoke this remedy whenever corporations put their profit-making before the “public welfare.”
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr

http://ecowatch.com/2014/10/01/jailing-climate-deniers-robert-kennedy-jr/
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Mar 21, 2015 - 03:58am PT
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/03/18/3635560/noaa-hottest-winter/



Yes temps just keep going up.

Reality,just as bad a word to the denier as "alarmist".
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Mar 21, 2015 - 07:56am PT
How unusual is the 2012–2014 California drought?

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL062433/abstract
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Mar 21, 2015 - 08:41am PT
Apparently, the California drought has been getting warranted attention.

Is climate change implicated in the 2013–2014 California drought? A hydrologic perspective†

Abstract
California has experienced severe drought in 2012–2014 (which appears to be continuing into 2015), with especially low winter precipitation and mountain snowpack in winter 2013–2014. However, the extent to which climate change is implicated in the drought, if at all, is not clear. By applying modeling and statistical approaches, we construct a historical record of California snowpack, runoff, and other hydrological variables of almost 100 years in length, and use the reconstructed records to analyze climate trends in the Sierra Nevada and their impact on extreme drought events in the historic record. We confirm a general warming trend and associated decreasing trends in spring snowpack and runoff. We find that the warming may have slightly exacerbated some extreme events (including the 2013–2014 drought and the 1976–1977 drought of record), but the effect is modest; instead, these drought events are mainly the result of variability in precipitation.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL063456/abstract
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
Maestro, Ecosystem Ministry, Fatcrackistan
Mar 21, 2015 - 08:53am PT
How unusual is the 2012–2014 California drought?

While not common it is hardly atypical, either.

DMT
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Mar 21, 2015 - 09:26am PT
I've read predictions that say the snow level in California will raise in elevation, meaning it will rain more at elevations where it once snowed.

(I know, I'm not stating this in terms that would please a climate researcher!)



Only time will tell if these predictions will come true.


With that, what do you think the trend is with the California ski resorts?
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Mar 21, 2015 - 10:43am PT
...instead, these drought events are mainly the result of variability in precipitation.

interestingly, we have a different reaction to this phrase. Right now, the ability of climate models to inform on short term, regional variability is probably not very accurate. This is a critical component in future planning, as the current drought illustrates.

There was some noise about the lack of California state planning, but interestingly, historic records are used to indicate the likely futures. The obvious problem being that accurate records don't exist very far into the past. And climate change is creating a great deal of uncertainty in the applicability of projecting past climate into the future.

Current paleoclimate research has opened a window on the more distant past, yet these studies are yet to be incorporated into state plans.

The planning is not trivial, the costs are very large for building dams, and even more now as environmental law informs on the plans, but also the engineering costs, and the construction costs are large. So the state of California cannot just willy nilly build for a future of "mega-draughts," it has to have some basis for proposing the budget and committing public resources to that end.

Climate modeling will have to be much better at predicting the regional climatic changes.

The "variability" in the last sentence of the quote is currently taken to be "random," but we have no idea whether or not it is random. At best, the jury is out on that point. But it is a very important point, and a reason why climate modeling is an important, practical, activity.

Credit: Ed Hartouni
SFPUC's Calaveras Dam Replacement project, $434M
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calaveras_Reservoir
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Mar 21, 2015 - 12:32pm PT
Factoring in duration and temps, this drought is quite a bit more intense than any in the record. 2015 looks to widen the disparity even further.

Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
Maestro, Ecosystem Ministry, Fatcrackistan
Mar 21, 2015 - 01:44pm PT
The record is short. I'm skeptical of laying this drought at the feet of climate change. Will I be arrested? By a KENNEDY???!!! Oh the humanity. Goddamn that man is a mouth flapping fool.
Typical climate change 'spokesperson' ...
DMT
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Mar 21, 2015 - 02:06pm PT
Who said climate change caused this drought?

Climate change intensified this drought.
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