Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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Messages 19841 - 19860 of total 28515 in this topic << First  |  < Previous  |  Show All  |  Next >  |  Last >>
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Feb 10, 2014 - 12:22pm PT
When does skiing generally end?

The ski season is ending sooner.
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Relic MilkEye and grandpoobah of HBRKRNH
Feb 10, 2014 - 12:34pm PT
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA

Feb 5, 2014 - 07:47am PT
...to the warming hiatus.

and perhaps you can show that there is a "warming hiatus"?
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Feb 10, 2014 - 12:35pm PT
The new England et al. (2014) research shows that intensification of Pacific trade winds over the past two decades has been churning heat into the ocean, with increased subduction of relatively warm surface water and more upwelling of cold deeper water.

These result form a coherent picture with other recent studies, notably Balmeseda et al. (2013) documenting heat uptake by the deep ocean, and Kosaka and Xie (2013) tying the slowdown in global temperature rise specifically to La Nina wind conditions in the eastern tropical Pacific. Taking a different approach, Foster and Rahmstorf (2012), among others, have shown statistically that El Nino/La Nina effects explain the recent slowdown in surface temperatures.

To link these four to another important recent study: Cowtan & Way (2013) developed a new temperature index with improved geographical coverage, notably in the Arctic. Their index shows that global air temperatures have in fact continued to rise through the "hiatus" period, although not as steeply as before; the tropical Pacific-driven slowdown studied by England et al. and Kosaka & Xie is still visible in their data.
crunch

Social climber
CO
Feb 10, 2014 - 12:38pm PT
Lovely bit of cherry picking.

Looking at the similar charts for October, November, December, January, February and March (the colder months), the trend for all of those months looks more favorable.

I think the point monolith was making was not to do with the amount or intensity of snow that fell in the winter, but that the resulting springtime snow cover is getting less and less.

April, May, June, July and August all show a distinct trend to less snow cover. None of the other months appear to have any obvious pattern or trend.

It's basically the springtime months that show a strong trend.

Whatever is happening in the depths of winter, once the snow stops falling the snow cover is disappearing faster.

Why would that be?
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Relic MilkEye and grandpoobah of HBRKRNH
Feb 10, 2014 - 12:40pm PT
obviously,,, .06 of one little degree melts it all in a day now.
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Feb 10, 2014 - 12:43pm PT
That's when most of the resorts close.

We used to backcountry ski a lot in May. Not so much any more.
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Relic MilkEye and grandpoobah of HBRKRNH
Feb 10, 2014 - 12:47pm PT
skiizin in JULY in 2011..



http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/07/03/july-4th-still-wintery-in_n_889420.html
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Feb 10, 2014 - 12:48pm PT
Yep, it does happen, just not as much, or as easy as it used to be.

Mammoth will try to stay open till July, but we know what that means.
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Relic MilkEye and grandpoobah of HBRKRNH
Feb 10, 2014 - 12:54pm PT
Granted,, but it is a drying, not a "warming" .. Ive watched the great basin sinks go from large lakes to dry beds in the last 30 yrs. Watched as glaciers disappear from local peaks. This has been going on for over a hundred years here. And even farther back in the past when inland seas were present. Like lake winnemucca and ancient lake Lahanton..

But average temps here havent gone up. Summer heat has been shortened significantly.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Feb 10, 2014 - 12:55pm PT
But which comes first.... the wind or the hot water? Can't tell from the abstract.
I think the winds appear to be driving this train. A lurking question is what's driving these unusual winds (or put another way, the prolonged La Nina conditions)? Are they just "natural variability" or themselves products of the TOA energy imbalance? So far the balance of opinion leans toward "natural" but with some dissent. I expect we'll see more research on this in the near future.

Wind conditions also play a role in recent changes around Antarctica, with what could be global implications. I'll put together a note about that in the next week or so.
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Feb 10, 2014 - 12:56pm PT
Yep, the Sierras suffer drought now. Still, the overall northern hemisphere snow cover in late snow season is clearly decreasing.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Feb 10, 2014 - 01:08pm PT
^^ Nice pictures, big improvement over the thumbnails I posted.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Feb 10, 2014 - 02:46pm PT
Kevin Cowtan, of Cowtan & Way (2013), remarks that England et al. (2014) seem to have "uncovered the biggest piece in the puzzle of recent temperature trends." But he also notes that Figure 5a in FM's post above, reproduced from the England et al. paper, is almost impossible to read for the color-challenged. Cowtan offers this simplification:

monolith

climber
SF bay area
Feb 10, 2014 - 03:26pm PT
Yep, it does suck to understand more of the components of climate change.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Feb 10, 2014 - 03:44pm PT
More curve fitting.
Oh joy.
Rapture.
Sketch, did you ever look up what "statistically significant" means?
Add "curve fitting" to the list. You've used that term many times without understanding what it means.

Or even without learning words, can you articulate an intelligent response, say at paragraph length, to that graphic?
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Feb 10, 2014 - 03:51pm PT
Sketch is clueless. That's why he calls himself Sketch. Everything about him is totally sketchy.

It's why he plays his cards so close. He's got nothing. All he can do is bluff.
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Feb 10, 2014 - 05:13pm PT
In designing trading systems,

Well christ all mighty why didn't you say so earlier. You're a securities trader? then you are familiar with modeling and statistics. You must be able to substantiate and explain to your hearts content... so why don't you? Come on man you clearly doubt all this AGW stuff and unlike Dick Sumner you must have reams of schooling, experience and technical explanation to back up your opinion.

Sketch, these threads really don't have to be 25 thousand posts long. We just need somebody who can substantiate the opinions on the denier side. We thought it might have been Maddog at one point. Lets hear what you've got so far.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
Feb 10, 2014 - 05:17pm PT
"Wilbeer... did your knee doctor tell you to do that? Teli through trees?

...and deadfall?"

Fort,I ski with my doctor ,a lot,and ride with him.He will not climb or WW kayak though.

We ski woods here,not open powder bowls.Like someone said earlier,we also ski a lot of ice [inbounds].

One of the only places to ski real powder in the east is out back or the BC.

And yes,Bruce ,I am a PSIA Level 1 Telemark instructor,or as you say ,wanker.

Nice slab of graphs there Fort.

Credit: wilbeer

Any time you want to learn how to snowplow,sailor.
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Feb 10, 2014 - 05:21pm PT
Just kidding about the wanker part! Thats what we use to yell at each other on the hill. The reality is that Telemarking is harder - way harder. Google the north Face of Mt Hickson and have a look at a stout little bit of thigh burning hell. 1800 meters worth.
Cragar

climber
MSLA - MT
Feb 10, 2014 - 05:23pm PT
Sketch, I think I understand your 'analogy' but it doesn't work that way in science, but I could be wrong. I know little to nothing about trade world except that it works off/with the dynamic human values of making more money. Do you maintain metadata to describe to degree to which you alter the data for the trading systems to achieve the desired results?
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