Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Feb 11, 2015 - 09:46am PT
you've got an uninformed opinion of it, based on your disagreement with the result.

What are you talking about?

Please post my quote supporting your claim.

But you don't have anything other than that, and your wacky conspiracy theory, to back up your opinion.

...if you think that my calling you out is a "smug and condescending effort" that's your opinion. The fact is you don't have anyway of telling by yourself whether or not the paper is correct, you depend on others' telling you...

if you are "smug" in letting those others tell you what opinion to have, that's fine by me, it justifies my ignoring your regurgitation of those others' opinions (I can find them myself elsewhere).

----------------------------


K-man - You crack me up. Such an active imagination.

Wade Icey

Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
Feb 11, 2015 - 10:21am PT
It's better to be straightforward. That way people don't have to guess at the meaning of your posts. Unless, of course, you're trying to troll for responses.

seems Sketchy to me.
McHale's Navy

Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
Feb 11, 2015 - 11:54am PT
Don't you believe in evolution Ed?
No, you are the one that probably does not believe in evolution Rick......much higher likelihood for you.

various government agency GTA series are not trusted, considered to be corrupted to push an agenda by a majority of the public.

A majority? According to who? Watts? See, that's what you do. You corrupt things. That's all you can do.

Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Feb 11, 2015 - 12:13pm PT
much higher likelihood for you.

Factoid from recent surveys: Who believes that humans were created within the past 10,000 years?

24% of those who believe climate change is happening now, caused mainly by human activities.

41% of those who believe climate change is happening now, but caused mainly by natural forces.

69% of those who believe climate change is not happening now.
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
Maestro, Ecosystem Ministry, Fatcrackistan
Feb 11, 2015 - 12:35pm PT
I don't think anyone really believes the 10k year old humanity sh#t. They're goddamned liars, every one of them.

DMT
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Feb 11, 2015 - 12:39pm PT
I don't think anyone really believes the 10k year old humanity sh#t. They're goddamned liars, every one of them.

In my state, 33% say they do. I suspect it's quite a bit higher in some other states.
dave729

Trad climber
Western America
Feb 11, 2015 - 12:40pm PT
The old saying a sucker is born every minute is true. Sell them
a bridge, a religous belief system, a global warming carbon tax.
All the same.
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
Maestro, Ecosystem Ministry, Fatcrackistan
Feb 11, 2015 - 12:45pm PT
They're lying chiloe, to themselves and their gods.

DMT
Cragar

climber
MSLA - MT
Feb 11, 2015 - 12:48pm PT
how do you know they are lying?

Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
Maestro, Ecosystem Ministry, Fatcrackistan
Feb 11, 2015 - 12:55pm PT
No one is that damned stupid.

DMT
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Feb 11, 2015 - 12:59pm PT
See second chart in top row, or browse others if curious.



Bigger image here:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=http://img.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/files/2014/12/tea-party1.png&w=1484
Mike Bolte

Trad climber
Planet Earth
Feb 11, 2015 - 01:01pm PT
DMT, you have obviously not been following this thread!

EDIT: in case it was not clear I was referring to this statement from DMT "No one is that damned stupid. "
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
Maestro, Ecosystem Ministry, Fatcrackistan
Feb 11, 2015 - 01:03pm PT
Plenty of folks have made the same point in this thread re deniers.

DMT
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Feb 11, 2015 - 01:10pm PT
Plenty of folks have made the same point in this thread re deniers.

Hmmm, a point I was making, using data, is that there's significant overlap between those who reject the scientific consensus on climate change, and those who reject it on evolution. In draft form: what about vaccines?
JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
Feb 11, 2015 - 01:52pm PT
Chiloe, I think the issue with climate deniers and vaccine objectors both involve misuse of statistics, rather than a mistrust of science. The two misuses differ, though.

The arguments I've seen to refute the findings of mainstream climate scientists usually involve data from specific places and specific times. They would argue, for example, that global atmospheric temperatures have remained relatively stable for the last 15 or so years, or that Antarctic ice covers more of the oceans surface now than it did then. Those arguments try to disprove an aggregate forecast by improper disaggregation.

My example is a bit obscure, so please bear with me. When I put a pot of water on my stove and turn up the heat, I expect the water to boil, but what do I mean by "boil?" I obviously don't mean that all of the water will instantly vaporize. I also don't mean that a particular group of water molecules with vaporize at any particular time. The movement of boiling fluids poses forms a classic chaotic system. When I predict the water will boil, I mean that, taken as a whole some of the water in the pot will vaporize at some fairly predictable rate.

Our climate change models make similar predictions. They don't predict the temperature of some specific part of the earth at any particular time. Rather, they predict that if you change the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, you change the temperature of the earth, taken as a whole, in a predictable way.

We cannot predict the temperature for only part of the earth - even if that part is quite large, such as the entire atmosphere - for any but very short periods of time, and we certainly cannot do so for relative small sections of the earth. Weather at any particular location is perhaps the classic chaotic system. We can, however, predict what will take place for the earth as a whole.

Thus, trying to contradict climate change models with only atmospheric data fails, because it does not account for all the other places that predicted heat can go, e.g. the oceans. Similarly, increasing surface area of Antarctic ice, alone, does not contradict the predictions. Only data for the entire system that we call the earth can tell us whether our models give accurate predictions.

The vaccine phobia involves a different statistical issue, namely "nonsense correlations." For example, a country's per capita beer consumption has a strong negative correlation to a country's infant mortality rate. The more beer consumed, the lower the infant mortality. Unfortunately, this fails to prove that drinking more beer leads to healthier babies. Beer consumption is a decent proxy for wealth. The more wealth, the more a country can spend on prenatal and natal care, and therefore the lower the mortality rates.

The alleged relation of vaccines to autism forms a similar nonsense correlation. When the studies purporting to show a correlation came out, I didn't buy the arguments for at least the following reasons: (1) They failed to set forth a plausible mechanism for the causation; (2) they failed to account for the benefits of the vaccine, and, most importantly (3) they were performed for the benefit of the plaintiffs' bar. It did not surprise me when those studies were later debunked.

Incidentally, in California, those who reject vaccines are more likely to be leftists in Santa Monica than righties in Fresno.

John
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Feb 11, 2015 - 02:04pm PT
Incidentally, in California, those who reject vaccines are more likely to be leftists in Santa Monica than righties in Fresno.

We tested this hypothesis! Details to come (much) later, it's in peer review right now.

Regarding your point about statistics, I think one thing might be even more basic: whether people grok probability, that infinite space between zero and one. Some minds fall more quickly to absolutes, dichotomies, good and evil, us and them, yes or no. Others are comfortable with ambiguity, complexity, uncertainty, probability ....

Do vaccines always work? Nope. Do they reduce probabilities of infection? Yep. So what should you do? This reasoning works for me, but a lot of folks stop dead at point 1. We've seen that in quite a few ST comments when vaccines did come up.
dave729

Trad climber
Western America
Feb 11, 2015 - 02:13pm PT
Thread refocus.
By definition they are 'terrorists'. They can't stop shouting climate disaster! Everyone will die (unless you pay us protection money).

In a way these Warmists are also screaming 'allah akbar'.
But does it make muslim extremists and climate nazis 2 sides of the same coin?
McHale's Navy

Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
Feb 11, 2015 - 02:25pm PT
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/feb/02/republicans-climate-change-solutions-senators

" Republicans finally admitted climate change is real: so what will they do about it? "
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Feb 11, 2015 - 03:09pm PT
K-man - You crack me up. Such an active imagination.


I'll take that as a compliment EdT.

But I am not alone; look at the folks who respond to your posts, and what they assume you mean by them. They all have active imaginations too, I suppose.


Or, could it be that you project a certain viewpoint in the ambiguous posts you create? Could it be that you make your posts to elicit heated responses, otherwise known as trolling?
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Feb 11, 2015 - 06:11pm PT
evolution... interesting that you would reduce the scientific concept to a word and then apply the definition of the word to produce an analogy...

yes I "believe" in the scientific theory of evolution, rick...

here is a link the Judith Curry's blog... you might find it interesting...
http://judithcurry.com/2015/02/09/berkeley-earth-raw-versus-adjusted-temperature-data/#more-17768
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