Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Mar 13, 2014 - 11:20am PT
Effects of Natural Variability on Projections of Changing Climate: A Study in Nuance
National Center for Atmospheric Research

Humans and their emissions have an undeniable effect on global, regional, and local climate; however, natural climate variability introduces shades of gray into the prediction of future effects of climate change. Extreme events such as “Snowmageddon,” the series of blizzards that hit the U.S. East Coast in 2009-2010, or even Colorado’s cooler-than-normal 2013 summer demonstrate deviations from typical climate patterns. These out-of-the-norm events indicate what happens when natural climate variability and human-driven climate change intersect, explains Clara Deser, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

While average global temperatures continue to rise due to human emissions, changes in temperature and precipitation will not occur uniformly across regions. How future climate change manifests locally will differ from the global averages predicted by models, with some localities experiencing cooling rather than warming trends, for example, because of the effects of natural climate variability.

“Climate models do a good job of projecting the effects of human-made (anthropogenic) climate change, but natural variability limits the accuracy of these projections,” says Deser. “In other words, natural variability is the ‘X Factor’ that determines how future weather and climate events will manifest in specific locations or regions, for example Denver or the western United States.”

Regional and global model projections provide researchers and decision makers with best guesses of climate dynamics and what might be expected in the future, however, local and regional climate variations from one model projection to the next is largely a consequence of the chaotic nature of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Given this reality, uncertainty around projections of regional climate will remain even as models improve or as greenhouse-gas trajectories become more certain.



http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n11/pdf/nclimate1562.pdf

related papers at
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x/fulltext.html
journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Mar 13, 2014 - 11:27am PT
Evaluating the Effects of Future Sea Level Rise and Storm Surges Along U.S. Coastlines
http://ncar.ucar.edu/press/evaluating-the-effects-of-future-sea-level-rise-and-storm-surges-along-us-coastlines

Modelling sea level rise impacts on storm surges along US coasts
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/1/014032/pdf/1748-9326_7_1_014032.pdf
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Mar 13, 2014 - 11:57am PT


It’s been nearly four decades since scientists first realized that global warming posed a potential threat to our planet. Why, if we knew of the threats way back in the Carter Administration, can’t we act decisively to limit greenhouse gases, deforestation, and catastrophic warming trends? Why are we still addicted to fossil fuels? Have we all just been fiddling for 40 years as the world burns around us?

Schneider, part of the Nobel Prize–winning team that shared the accolade with Al Gore in 2007, had a front-row seat at this unfolding environmental meltdown. Piecing together events like a detective story, Schneider reveals that as expert consensus grew, well-informed activists warned of dangerous changes no one knew how to predict precisely—and special interests seized on that very uncertainty to block any effective response. He persuasively outlines a plan to avert the building threat and develop a positive, practical policy that will bring climate change back under our control, help the economy with a new generation of green energy jobs and productivity, and reduce the dependence on unreliable exporters of oil—and thus ensure a future for ourselves and our planet that’s as rich with promise as our past.
http://www.amazon.com/Science-Contact-Sport-Inside-Climate/dp/1426205406
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
U.N. Ambassador, Crackistan
Mar 13, 2014 - 12:21pm PT
Sketch's main beef here is he doesn't like to see the smart kids mentally beating up on the retards.

DMT
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Mar 13, 2014 - 12:34pm PT
It all seems to be little more than a working hypothesis.


Hold on to that belief Sketch.


For me, I'll form my beliefs around what the scientists who study the climate say. And they are saying, unequivocally, that the sh#t is real.
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
U.N. Ambassador, Crackistan
Mar 13, 2014 - 02:01pm PT
Thanks! Its all fun and games till someone's feelings get hurt! ;D

DMT
blahblah

Gym climber
Boulder
Mar 13, 2014 - 02:10pm PT

For me, I'll form my beliefs around what the scientists who study the climate say. And they are saying, unequivocally, that the sh#t is real.

That's the mentality that keeps the religious establishment in power too.
I guess everyone needs to make a living.

Here's a summary of where I think we're at:
1. Mankind's dumping massive amount of CO2 into the atmosphere will in fact cause a certain amount of global warming, due to basic physical and chemical principles that have been known for over a hundred years.
2. The doom-and-gloom projections are based on assumptions that the relatively small amount of warming in (1) will, because of various feedback mechanisms, cause something like an out of control "death spiral."
3. In point of fact, and to mankind's good fortune, it seems that the feedbacks have been negative, and so the warming in (1) has been even less than what may have been reasonably expected. We got lucky!
4. The above points have been greatly complicated and obscured by an industry of "scientists" and opportunists whose livelihoods depend on continued taxpayer funded "studies" and government programs designed to "solve the problem." They may have also been somewhat complicated (more in the past than in the present) by those with an agenda to minimize government regulation.
5. Because of (1), some limited government regulation and further study is useful and desirable, but as far as pressing problems facing the US and the world,the public's ranking of "global warming" is pretty spot on--if you got 20 problems, it's at or near the very bottom.

Seem accurate?
mechrist

Gym climber
South of Heaven
Mar 13, 2014 - 03:56pm PT
well blahblahbullsh#t, you got 1 out of 5 right. You've made great progress over the last few years. We are proud of you.
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Mar 13, 2014 - 04:27pm PT

some of the slides from STU's talk are in
http://www.epa.gov/electricpower-sf6/documents/conf12_ostro.pdf
and for the whole enchilada, see
http://tinyurl.com/stuostro
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Mar 13, 2014 - 05:13pm PT
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Mar 13, 2014 - 05:46pm PT


transcript at
http://billmoyers.com/wp-content/themes/billmoyers/transcript-print.php?post=17843
bookworm

Social climber
Falls Church, VA
Mar 13, 2014 - 06:23pm PT
no, libs never act like fascists:

https://theconversation.com/is-misinformation-about-the-climate-criminally-negligent-23111#comment_333276


what's that about the last refuge of cowards?

"shut up or we'll throw your ass in jail", they argued...
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Mar 13, 2014 - 06:55pm PT
No matter what temperature proxy you use, you still get a hockey stick

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/figure-6-10.html

wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
Mar 13, 2014 - 07:28pm PT
All three of those show the Hiatus clearly,Malemute.


Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Mar 13, 2014 - 08:11pm PT
I see lots of pauses, lots of ramp downs, and lots of ramp ups.
I also see a huge overall jump in recent years, a jump that is statistically significant.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
Mar 13, 2014 - 08:23pm PT
It is truly sad ,as evidenced here,that not enough see it that way.
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Mar 13, 2014 - 08:27pm PT
I think it is past that.
I think they are deliberately lying with the intention of causing harm to others.
bobinc

Trad climber
Portland, Or
Mar 13, 2014 - 09:01pm PT
'Never ascribe to malice that which can adequately be explained by incompetence.' --Naploean Bonaparte
Norton

Social climber
the Wastelands
Mar 13, 2014 - 09:02pm PT

why not declare victory and go home?
WBraun

climber
Mar 13, 2014 - 09:16pm PT
Just go home period Norton.

You have no brain to understand anything at all period ......
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