Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Dec 22, 2013 - 12:14pm PT
Calling you dudes out on your insistent hypocrisy is now cheap.



Of course it is.



Hooooooya!




And a very Merry Yabadabadoooooooooooooooooooooo.


How does a little guy get up on that soapbox anyway?

Why don't you tell us Whelleberee. What are you, all of 5 foot....

Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Dec 22, 2013 - 01:09pm PT
So I have two papers that should get written over the next month, if I can find time. The first is a straightforward though very unusual piece on sea ice prediction. The second involves surveys of public science beliefs and knowledge. The problem with that survey paper is I've got too much data, really enough for 3 or 4 papers, but no time to write that many.

So ... I've got a bunch of spare parts I don't yet know what to do with, one example below. This breaks down public opinion on 4 questions: trust in scientists; belief that humans evolved over millions of years (vs. created in the past 10,000 years by God); belief that climate change is happening now, caused mainly by human activities (vs. not changing, or changing mainly for natural reasons); and belief that CO2 concentration in Earth's atmosphere has been increasing in recent decades (vs. decreasing or staying the same). The bars show percentages, and notes in each chart tell how many interviews they are based on. The four colors are self-identified Democrats, Independents, and Republicans who either do not or do support the tea party.



For the numerically inclined: approximate 95% confidence intervals (in popular press, "margins of error") for such percentages can be calculated as plus or minus 100/sqrt(n), where n is the number of observations.
BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
Dec 22, 2013 - 01:16pm PT
There is no point engaging "it" in any sort of logical debate, Mimi. Perhaps you should post your doctorate diploma to enrage "it."

If there is anything that I can contribute to the climate debate it is this: sedimentary geologists, and petroleum geologists in particular, are the source of most knowledge about the past climate of the planet. We look at the entire rock section throughout geologic time, and understanding the conditions, or depositional environment of sedimentary rocks, is of huge economic importance.

Because of this, we know a hell of a lot about the history and conditions of the planet throughout geologic time.

It was recognized that paleo-climate is cyclic very early on. The planet has historically seen hot and cold periods, and they occur in a rhythmic pattern, almost like a pulse. These are important because climate has a big effect on where and how rocks were deposited, including both source and reservoir rocks of hydrocarbon accumulation.

The main driver of climate is thought to be cycles in the Earth's orbit, also known as "Milankovitch Cycles." You would do well to read this simple page on Wiki:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sequence_stratigraphy

Other drivers of climate involve vulcanism, which directly increases CO2 levels. During the breakup of Pangea in the Mesozoic, high sea level can be directly correlated to high CO2 concentrations. There was a hot house event in the late Mesozoic which is well known and studied. This is the classic case of a CO2 driven hot house event. Fortunately, that event is richly recorded in the rock record. It is even possible to quantitatively reconstruct atmospheric CO2 concentrations from examination of fossil flora. Google "Stomata density in Gingko Balboa" to find the right direction there.

I need to look up the exact CO2 levels during the Cretaceous event, but we have basically gotten about halfway to that catastrophic event since we began burning fossil fuels.

There is much more to the story. The organic rich shales that are now being drilled horizontally and fracked the snot out of, are kind of unique. Shale composes about 90% of the sedimentary record, and typically it has very little organic carbon. In a typical oxygen rich depositional environment, bacteria chow down on the carbon that is constantly raining down in most ocean environments. The carbon rich shales are the exception to this, and all oil and gas is sourced from a few discrete shales. In Oklahoma, for example, the Devonian Woodford Shale, which varies from 50 to several hundred feet in thickness, sourced billions of barrels of oil accumulations in the mid-continent. Whenever you drilled through this shale you would get a huge gas show on the chromatograph, but since shale is so impermeable, it was never considered to be a target until technology made it possible to frack the snot out of it to produce oil and gas.

It is known that these organic rich shales were deposited in an anoxic environment caused by ocean acidification. Several of these anoxic events were global, and can be correlated around the planet. Oddly enough, these anoxic oceanic events were caused by periods of high temperature greenhouse events in the planet's past. There was a Devonian/early Mississippian event, which includes the Woodford, Barnett, Fayetteville, and the fantastic Bakken Shale in North Dakota, which is presently in the temperature/pressure "oil window" and is generating oil as we speak.

The other event is the Jurassic/Cretaceous hot house event, and the organic rich shales from that event sourced the middle eastern oil accumulations (Hanifa Formatin) as well as the onshore U.S. shales such as the Niobrara and the Eagleford.

Oddly enough, the strongest theory of the cause of these important ocean acidification events is that they were caused during high atmospheric CO2 hothouse events.

Methane is a more powerful greenhouse gas than CO2, and there are a couple of episodes in the rock record which suggest a rapid "burp" of unstable methane hydrates in ocean bottoms releasing high amounts of methane into the atmosphere. The only good thing about methane is that it is unstable in the atmosphere and will break down over time.

The largest greenhouse gas by far is water vapor. I am friends with an atmospheric physicist, and we've discussed climate change many times. What will happen with water vapor is a big question. The way I recall is that if the water vapor makes it into the upper atmosphere and creates high clouds, those will reflect more thermal energy out into space. This could cause cooling. If it is in the lower atmosphere as either a gas or liquid (cloud), it would behave like a greenhouse gas and increase global temperature.

I think that I have mentioned enough main points that anyone can, with a little curiosity, an open mind, and a little googling, will be able to understand these past events as well as the current anthropogenic atmosphere and its possible consequences.

This is a pure science question. The answer is not related to any belief or agenda. Since it has massive economic implications, it has become a football, with more of a religious/political zeal than any other modern topic. I'm damn glad that I don't work in this field.

My conclusion is this:

1) It has happened before, and we know the CO2 concentrations from that late Mesozoic event. It is foolish to dismiss global warming without a thorough understanding of the history of the planet and its mechanisms.

2) It is hard to ignore things such as melting glaciers and polar ice area. We know from ice cores that the current CO2 concentration is higher than at any time over the past 800,000 years, and probably higher than at any time since the end of the Cretaceous. These are things that you can directly measure.

In areas where there is systemic uncertainty regarding measurements, the range of uncertainty is known.

I am not saying that all debate is over. All I am saying that if you dogmatically refuse to consider climate change due to political or non-science reasons, you are not being honest.

Geez. Over half the planet believes that the Earth is only 6000 years old. that is lunacy.

Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Dec 22, 2013 - 01:20pm PT
Geez. Over half the planet believes that the Earth is only 6000 years old. that is lunacy.

The research question is, who believes that?
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 22, 2013 - 01:36pm PT
Where do you do your surveys Larry? Surely it must be in primate research centers and animal sanctuaries since the general public, with the exception of left and right coast major population centers and denizens of certain mid american far left fantasy lands like Boulder, don't believe in the ignorance you are trying to showcase nor would they be idiotic enough to waste their time with your foolish survey material . That aside, if you have too much material send it over, I would be glad to do a proper write up and put your silly name on it. The arrogance of you folks is at times astounding. Mimi , I'll give you a pass while assuming your naivete is innocent.
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Dec 22, 2013 - 01:36pm PT
Thanks Larry for re-affirming the fact (which is clearly indicated in the Poll) that you are Politically and Ideologically charged in this quest. As well as monetarily.



And of course Larry, you are one of them that keeps blaming everything on GW.

Got it....


Gotta do what ya gotta do to keep Feeding the Rat.
BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
Dec 22, 2013 - 01:41pm PT
All of the Abrahamic religions believe that. I am amazed at how purposely ignorant some of my friends are over a silly and easy answer as to the rough age of the planet.

Everything agrees: Geology, Astronomy, Chemistry, Biology. It is a no-brainer, but go over to the politics vs. religion thread to see this young age idea alive and well.

As for Mimi......she is one of the sharpest people who I have ever met. When I last saw her she was leaving a stint climbing in the ditch to go finish a PhD in population genetics or something along those lines.

We don't always agree on things, but her intelligence is one thing that I will never question. She is f'ing smart.

Too bad that this thread is dominated by a bully.

I don't make my money from "Big Oil." I work with small companies and invest my own money in my prospects. It is pretty cool to create wealth out of an idea. That is something that The Chief will never understand. In the Zen sense of it, his "Cup is full."

I did do a one year contract with a large company a couple of years back. Other than that, I am a one man shop.

In the oil business, particularly among the older crowd, global warming is dismissed. I don't see how you can be intellectually honest and not at least consider it as a possibility, much less a likelihood.

I have some maps to crank out by tomorrow morning. Hopefully I contributed.
anita514

Gym climber
Great White North
Dec 22, 2013 - 01:42pm PT
Chief is just jealous of DMT's fly pimp-mobile

HATER
moosedrool

climber
Stair climber, lost, far away from Poland
Dec 22, 2013 - 02:16pm PT
Climate Change skeptics, eh?

Billion-dollar climate denial network exposed
POLITICS 21 DECEMBER 13 by DUNCAN GEERE

An extensive study into the financial networks that support groups denying the science behind climate change and opposing political action has found a vast, secretive web of think tanks and industry associations, bankrolled by conservative billionaires.

[]...a network of 91 think tanks and industry groups are primarily responsible for conservative opposition to climate policy. Almost 80 percent of these groups are registered as charitable organisations for tax purposes, and collectively received more than seven billion dollars between 2003 and 2010.

http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2013-12/21/denial?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=facebook
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Dec 22, 2013 - 02:18pm PT
Chief is just jealous of DMT's fly pimp-mobile


Are you kidding me.... what would I need something like for. I just step out my back door and I am where dudes like DMT drive hours with jacked up rigs like his to enjoy a weekend.

I got ten bucks says he drives that thing around the SAC area as well.

You know... showing it off and stuff. At the local coffee shop where all the other "climbers" hang out and "socialize" and stuff.




Now you scientist are bashing on religions. Ignorant asses the billions on earth that believe in one. How pity ego inflated self-centered ya'll really are.

I don't make my money from "Big Oil." I work with small companies ...

Oh please do tell BASE what them "small companies" do.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
Dec 22, 2013 - 02:28pm PT
Base,they do not care about en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleoclimatology ,but thanks for trying to hammer it home.


EDIT:6FT,175 LBS,since 78.You are so easy to incite.



Mimi

climber
Dec 22, 2013 - 03:43pm PT
Holy crap, I've found a connection to make with Chuffie! It's Christmas, there's hope! More on that later.

Bruce, the irrational comes from fear due to ignorance absolutely through no fault of their own. Where's your empathy?

Chuff, the ONLY reason so many of us tout technology is because many of us are counting on tech saving our asses because we've screwed everything up so bad. You can gripe about underground injection but it's a useful technology as is incineration for some nasty wastes that are very difficult to get rid of. Nevermind, the point is, is we need to stop or reduce producing such waste in the first place. So, in summary, I'm really counting on alien intervention because all we've got is tech and that's scary. But we're still trying.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
Dec 22, 2013 - 03:46pm PT
Utopian!
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Dec 22, 2013 - 03:47pm PT
Chief, the ONLY reason so many of us tout technology is because many of us are counting on tech saving our asses because we've screwed everything up so bad...

Oh, and this ONE time you all have it right... right?


Got it.
Mimi

climber
Dec 22, 2013 - 03:50pm PT
No, dumbass, it's all we have. Industrial activity got us in this mess. Now, what else do we have available to fix it? Solutions provided through technological advances. Duh!
anita514

Gym climber
Great White North
Dec 22, 2013 - 03:50pm PT
Got it.


HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Dec 22, 2013 - 04:04pm PT
No, dumbass, it's all we have.

Says who..


You? Dumbass sheeeeeeeeeeeeeeep.


Now, what else do we have available to fix it..

Ah, here we go.

Fix what and who are we to say that it is broken in the first place.


Like the others Mimi, you just follow the one in front of you...

it's all we have..... ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Dec 22, 2013 - 04:07pm PT
the irrational comes from fear due to ignorance absolutely through no fault of their own. Where's your empathy?

Where were you 20 thousand posts ago? That was the last time I had anything but scorn for Chuff and co. I don't have a problem with ignorance - it is relentless, entrenched, beligerant and recalcitrant ignorance that deserves no quarter. Nobody has an entitlement to that... except for these welfare queens apparently. The entitlement culture that exists in the right wing is that they are entitled to their opinion. I call bullshit on that. No one is entitled to an opinion unless it is informed and defensible. If you can't defend your opinion using basic intellectual principles then you must discard your opinion under the weight of superior argument.

This of course dosn't wash with the Rick, Rick and Wrong army of sulk, but then they don't subscribe to any principles at all other than weird, mangled distortions like "confidence in your own council" or principles that they would rather not overtly admit to, such as deceit, cowardice and coercion.

Ignorance is everywhere and in everyone to varying degrees and is not a vice. Hell I myself am grossly ignorant of climate science other than in very general layman terms. The vice is in willful incompetency.
Mimi

climber
Dec 22, 2013 - 04:12pm PT
Whoa, okay Bruce. I'm with you. No quarter for boneheadedness.

Chumphly, you're beyond hope. Have fun inhaling motorhead fumes while you continue on your dimwitted path. Something has made you very close-minded.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
Dec 22, 2013 - 04:20pm PT
But a smart Utopian indeed.
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