Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Jan 22, 2014 - 11:52am PT
Credit: Malemute
Might as well extend the red line with both past data "pauses".
Now you see why any pause is not a salvation. They are red herrings,
used by the treacherous as a lullaby for the gullible.

My cut & paste is just an approximation.
If you want more precision, that's what models are for.
If you're too dense to understand models, then my graph is close enough.
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Jan 22, 2014 - 11:57am PT
ENSO provides the wiggles in the upward trend that is driven by CO2.


Ah ENSO = EL NINO/LA NINA = PDO

Yeah, they match up alright.. if you got your head up your aSSE.


The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Jan 22, 2014 - 12:01pm PT
Here comes the bullshet streams...


They are NO WHERE near each other dude.




Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Jan 22, 2014 - 12:08pm PT
So now the PDO is based on C02.
Anyone who can't spell CO2 has zero credibility.
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Jan 22, 2014 - 12:08pm PT
C02 prior to 1940 is waaaaaaaaaaaay down below the charts.




What drove the biggest El Nino' from 1895-1905?



monolith

climber
SF bay area
Jan 22, 2014 - 12:10pm PT
The oceans drive ENSO, Chief. ENSO cycles happen regardless of man made CO2 emissions.

The 'O' in ENSO stands for Oscillation. ENSO oscillates back and forth, with long term net near zero.

Glad to help you out, Chief. I'm off on another secret government assignment.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 22, 2014 - 12:36pm PT
It's good to see that the desired endpoint agenda behind the CAGW movement get's exposure in the MSM. Although the brain dead believers haven't the foggiest notion that they are in a vehicle heading to a state of anything but utopia, the ones driving it are well aware of the massive personal wealth and power that severe restrictions to the collectives freedoms can bring them. This was never about climate, not to the ones driving it.

http://news.investors.com/ibd=editorials/011614-686713-climate-change-a-back-door-to-communism-and-the-united-nations-admit-it.htm

Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Relic MilkEye and grandpoobah of HBRKRNH
Jan 22, 2014 - 12:42pm PT
photo not found
Missing photo ID#341736




Sooo how SILLY is all of this!???^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Jan 22, 2014 - 12:43pm PT
So now the PDO is based on C02.
We must be approaching the 200th post in which Chief has shared his ideas about C-zero-two.
blahblah

Gym climber
Boulder
Jan 22, 2014 - 12:49pm PT
me:
If I'm mistaken on the above, I'm sure Chiloe can enlighten us!


Chiloe:
I don't laugh with Rush Limbaugh, either, though sometimes I laugh at him.

Chiloe's 0 for 1.

For context for everyone else, Chiloe got all butthurt when I repeated a joke about his new-fave "scientist"-anti-global-warming activist getting his ship stuck in ice on his family vacation / scientific expedition that was designed to document the effects of global warming (among other things, and when they weren't drinking and vacationing, presumably).

At least from what I can tell, the general narrative of the jokes is in fact correct. If Chiloe or anyone else doesn't think so, let's hear it.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 22, 2014 - 12:56pm PT
Give Chiloe a break Blahblah. The admission that he sometimes laugh, regardless of cause/effect, is proof that he's working on a sense of humor.
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Relic MilkEye and grandpoobah of HBRKRNH
Jan 22, 2014 - 01:01pm PT
Funny,, no comment on China,, you know,, one of the Charter members of the UN which contains the IPCC..
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Jan 22, 2014 - 01:11pm PT
The "ship of fools" meme has become so pervasive among right-wingers that resistance is futile, you can't swim against that meme any more than Al Gore can protest he never said he invented the Internet. I don't know anything about Turney except fragments learned the last few weeks, and haven't read any of his papers, but I hate to see a scientist getting smeared. One last try.

blahblah wrote about Chris Turney,
an anti-global-warming crusader getting iced in as he attempts to document the decline in sea ice
This short declaration has three falsehoods
(1) Turney is a scientist, not an "anti-global-warming crusader," although like most scientists he knows ACC is real.
(2) Antarctic sea ice is not declining, it has lately been increasing in area.
(3) The expedition's goal was not to "document the decline in sea ice" but to make a wide range of comparisons between Mawson's data from a hundred years back, and new observations today.

Here's a real description of their science objectives. Note that the second one actually mentions the growth of fast ice.
We are going south to:
 gain new insights into the circulation of the Southern Ocean and its impact on the global carbon cycle
 explore changes in ocean circulation caused by the growth of extensive fast ice and its impact on life in Commonwealth Bay
 use the subantarctic islands as thermometers of climatic change by using trees, peats and lakes to explore the past
 investigate the impact of changing climate on the ecology of the subantarctic islands
 discover the environmental influence on seabird populations across the Southern Ocean and in Commonwealth Bay
 understand changes in seal populations and their feeding patterns in the Southern Ocean and Commonwealth Bay
 produce the first underwater surveys of life in the subantarctic islands and Commonwealth Bay
 determine the extent to which human activity and pollution has directly impacted on this remote region of Antarctica
 provide baseline data to improve the next generation of atmospheric, oceanic and ice sheet models to improve predictions for the future
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Jan 22, 2014 - 01:23pm PT
MONO: The oceans drive ENSO, Chief. ENSO cycles happen regardless of man made CO2 emissions.

Well Well.

With that said, the/your AGW theory just got shot in the face with a proximity HE 20MM round.

You of course do know what a proximity HE 20MM round does to a human skull when it impacts it.... do you not!

raymond phule

climber
Jan 22, 2014 - 01:42pm PT
Interesting plot that the chief has found. The PDO index between 1900 and 2035.

So it is a prediction based on something. The chief usually despise all kind of models and prediction but not in this case it seems.

The really interesting thing though it that the prediction seems to be done by using the data from 45-78 as the prediction of the future. Looks like a kind a novel prediction technique.

This is of course just the usual, the scientist that agree with AGW is always incorrect, there data analysis ("smoothing" etc) always suspect, their models are incorrect if they are not making predictions that are 100% true. The "realist", those that say the things that the chief et all. wants to hear can do whatever they want with the data. Their methods are always correct, interesting etc and their are of course no reason to even try to understand them.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 22, 2014 - 01:56pm PT
Phule, the AGW crowd goes a long way towards invalidating themselves in the eyes of anyone paying attention. Take for example USHCN's v1 which adjusted modern temps up a half a degree c, or v2 which dropped the past temps by a full degree c. It seems the adjustments always go the same way-to make it look as the modern era is unprecedented and almost all the graphs you guys are posting are based on these maladjustments.
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
U.N. Ambassador, Crackistan
Jan 22, 2014 - 02:10pm PT
The dueling graphics do nothing for either side of this 'discussion.'

Its the 3-step shuffle and yall are letting one person call the dance.

DMT
blahblah

Gym climber
Boulder
Jan 22, 2014 - 02:11pm PT
The facts are irrelevant.
So Chiloe admits he knows basically nothing about Turney other than that he's decided that he's a "scientist," and so is incapable of being accurately described as an anti-GW "crusader."

Anyone who cares about the "facts" can look at the guy's own website and draw his or her own conclusions.
http://www.christurney.com/

The funny thing is (if there's anything funny after Chiloe relentlessly grinds the humor out), I doubt Turney would object to being described as an anti-GW crusader--he's apparently made it his life's work to both document GW changes and has started a company to do some geoengineering and engage in other for-profit work related to climate change (I can't get the company link to work, so maybe his company is doing as well as the expedition).

Chiloe may well be correct about it being wrong to say that Turney was there to document the decline in sea ice and was there to document the increase or change or something else. Joke still works fine.
raymond phule

climber
Jan 22, 2014 - 02:15pm PT

Phule, the AGW crowd goes a long way towards invalidating themselves in the eyes of anyone paying attention.

How would you know? You obviously cant pay attention because you can't read and understand any of the science involved and thus have no idea who to trust. The only thing you do over and over again is to believe the people that say things that is in agreement with your politics.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 22, 2014 - 02:32pm PT
Phule, it was always political at the top levels, just a means towards an end. I'm sorry you are fixated on projecting the minutia of the micro physical properties of CO2 from the lab into the tremendously complicated dynamics of a real world atmosphere. Compare these numbers Phule, atmospheric percentage of CO2=.ooo4, percentage of variation of TSI over a standard Schwabe cycle= .01, global deviation from mean temperature for Younger Dryas -6c, global mean deviation from mean temp for holocene climate optimum +2-3c, variation of global temps from end of Little ice age to present +.8c. Kind of indicates that natural variation far exceeds the modest temp increase that can be attributed to a trace gas that is 400ppm.
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