Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

Search
Go

Discussion Topic

Return to Forum List
Post a Reply
Messages 19001 - 19020 of total 25079 in this topic << First  |  < Previous  |  Show All  |  Next >  |  Last >>
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Dec 15, 2013 - 08:48am PT
He seems to indicate.....

how would you know?
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Dec 15, 2013 - 08:49am PT
The current TSI cycle is considered to be near it's maximum. That's why it's unusual, as it's much lower then most of the recent cycles.

The high of the last cycle occurred during the 'pause', so it has little effect on temps.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 15, 2013 - 08:51am PT
No shet Sherlock.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Dec 15, 2013 - 08:54am PT
We can build statistical models that take all four factors into account (per L&R/F&R). The graph below compares observed (NOAA) and model-predicted surface temperatures, using an ultra-simple model with this form:

y[t] = b0 + b1x1[t-1] + b2x2[t-1] + b3x3[t–1] + b4x4[t-1] + u[t]

where

y[t] is the global surface temperature anomaly for time (month) t.

x1 to x4 are four predictors: AOD, TSI, ENSO, CO2.

u[t] represents the disturbance at time t, which is related to the lag-1 disturbance (u[t-1]) and to lag-1 and time t random errors (e[t-1] and e[t]):

u[t] = ru[t-1] + pe[t-1] + e[t]

All this reads better with Greek letters and subscripts, which I use in the book but haven’t tried to reproduce here.



Coefficients (b1-b4) on all four predictors, and (r and p) on the autoregressive and moving-average terms, are statistically significant. This model explains 77% of the variance in monthly surface temperatures Feb 1980 through Dec 2010 (the data available when I ran this analysis a couple of years ago). Unadjusted TSI has a modest but statistically significant net effect on global surface temperature: about 0.061 degrees per w/m^2 of TSI.

As you will have guessed if you followed this discussion, running the same model using Svalgaard’s adjusted TSI instead of TSI PMOD leads to similar results -- identical, in fact, to three decimal places: the solar effect is still 0.061 degrees per w/m^2 of TSI. A graph would be visually indistinguishable from the one above. The strongest effect in either model comes from the CO2 index. Second-strongest is multivariate ENSO. TSI (adjusted or not) comes in third.

Besides its robust and interpretable results (which are broadly consistent with physical models that take weeks to run on a supercomputer), this simplified statistical approach has the fine quality that anyone who knows ARMAX regression can brew it on their own desktop computer. Change anything you think should be changed, and see for yourself just what happens!
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Dec 15, 2013 - 08:57am PT
we eagerly await Ricks deconstruction of that one
WBraun

climber
Dec 15, 2013 - 09:00am PT
Take a vacation Bruce.

You're obsessed and possessed ......
climbski2

Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
Dec 15, 2013 - 09:02am PT
Wait a sec. TSI is currently at a maximum point in it's period? But much lower than normal maximum?

I generally stay out of this thread so I am a bit behind I suppose.
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Dec 15, 2013 - 09:07am PT
I'm on permanent vacation werner so I'm not sure how thats going to work. If it helps you, think of me as a stalker. The problem is is that as Man Tracker episodes go, its a bit like shooting fish in a barrel so perhaps wack a right winger is a better analogy

Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Dec 15, 2013 - 09:09am PT
TSI is currently at a maximum point in it's period? But much lower than normal maximum?

Yes, Svalgaard has said something to the effect that no one alive today has experienced such a low solar maximum. As I understand it, recent historical variations in TSI may have a relatively weak direct effect on climate -- as suggested by the model above. They could act as an external driver, however, that kicks off greenhouse feedbacks which magnify the indirect impact on climate.
climbski2

Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
Dec 15, 2013 - 09:10am PT
Thanks Chiloe. This thread just became very informative.
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Dec 15, 2013 - 10:09am PT
Werner I think you might want to tell your kids to start growing camel humps


Climate change is altering the volume of annual Sierra snowpack that feeds the delta, sustains its fragile ecosystem and provides sufficient water to keep Central Valley crops growing and to quench the thirst of urban areas from the East Bay to Southern California. Levees, pumps and canals that were designed for yesterday's climate conditions cannot stave off environmental and economic collapse if precipitation levels drop or change form from snowfall to winter rain.

http://www.latimes.com/opinion/editorials/la-ed-bay-delta-20131215,0,1367123.story#ixzz2nZHmK8NP
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Relic MilkEye and grandpoobah of HBRKRNH
Dec 15, 2013 - 10:13am PT
Hey Bruce,, the population, 2013 of CA, has grown to 38,041,430 people.. And you WONDER why they have water troubles?? Vegas has water troubles too- as they fill those fifteen thousand swimming pools.
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Dec 15, 2013 - 10:16am PT
Just sayin' ron.....

You know, adapt. Like the polar bears.
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
U.N. Ambassador, Crackistan
Dec 15, 2013 - 10:31am PT
Like the so called bread basket of Nevada won't fail right along with us. That's California water those folks are using.

You're welcome Nevada.

The article is the biggest no-duh moment of the day so far, tho, for anyone with even a cursory knowledge of western desert mining of fossil aquifers knows. That's basically Colorado and west to the ocean.

As new patterns emerge we'll just have to see. But the delta will die before people leave the state so too will farming. Until the oil runs out then the boomtown will be bust.

DMT
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 15, 2013 - 12:01pm PT
Good posts Ed and Chiloe! Getting down to fewer and smaller bones to pick. Mainly overvalues of co2 sensitivity and undervalues in solar modulations and the still not completely understood amplifiers
Sketch

Trad climber
Langley, VA
Dec 15, 2013 - 01:57pm PT
To Ed, Bruce and Dingus,

You boys seeme to have gotten your panties bunched over the Hansen chart/pic. What is it your so upset about? You whine about the model being from '88, as if there was something dishonest about it, even though the text referenced the age of the model.

Do you boys think every time a model is modified the warmists get a do over?

Is that how it works?
Sketch

Trad climber
Langley, VA
Dec 15, 2013 - 01:59pm PT
photo not found
Missing photo ID#335306

Oh my!
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Dec 15, 2013 - 02:15pm PT
What is it your so upset about? You whine about the model being from '88, as if there was something dishonest about it, even though the text referenced the age of the model.

Dishonest again. Your text and cut and paste image makes no reference to the year the model was produced.

Perhaps if you go back, list the precise questions I pose, answer them concisely....

then you might understand. Here, I'll make it brain numbingly easy for you...

http://www.supertopo.com/climbing/thread.php?topic_id=970221&tn=20560



or perhaps this will help you understand yourself:

Research[edit]

According to research by Altemeyer, right-wing authoritarians tend to exhibit cognitive errors and symptoms of faulty reasoning. Specifically, they are more likely to make incorrect inferences from evidence and to hold contradictory ideas that result from compartmentalized thinking.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Right-wing_authoritarianism#Research


Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Dec 15, 2013 - 02:29pm PT
This is a tantalizingly intriguing possibility.....

Whether right-wing authoritarians are less intelligent than average is disputed.....



more research is needed
wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
Dec 15, 2013 - 02:41pm PT
Sketch,you started that set of snow maps at 2003.The NOAA has those maps dating far further back than that.

Why are you starting at 2003?

Do you really think that set tells any real story,when you could go back ,way further and tell a completely different story.

Picking data ,taking it out of context with the undeniable truth of the full story,Aye?

Messages 19001 - 19020 of total 25079 in this topic << First  |  < Previous  |  Show All  |  Next >  |  Last >>
Return to Forum List
Post a Reply
 
Our Guidebooks
Check 'em out!
SuperTopo Guidebooks


Try a free sample topo!

 
SuperTopo on the Web

Review Categories
Recent Route Beta
Recent Gear Reviews