Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
Maestro, Ecosystem Ministry, Fatcrackistan
Jan 26, 2015 - 07:13am PT
Does anyone here believe he is impartial or unbiased in his practice of science...

Sure, I do! :)

DMT
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Jan 26, 2015 - 07:34am PT
Hah, thanks for the support y'all. My point a while back was that denialists need new talking points as the old ones fall apart. And we've just seen the shape of plan-B talking points: false accusations.
dirtbag

climber
Jan 26, 2015 - 07:43am PT
Oh, shut the fukk up already...^^^^
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Jan 26, 2015 - 07:47am PT
NO WARMING since 1998! The PAUSE continues... That is the CONSENSUS!

Dang you are stupid, Chiefy.

Any new temp above the trend raises the trend rate.
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Jan 26, 2015 - 07:48am PT
2014 Wasnít the Hottest Year Ever On Land. Thatís Terrifying.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/01/20/_2014_wasn_t_the_hottest_year_ever_on_land_that_s_terrifying.html



EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jan 26, 2015 - 08:00am PT
Does anyone here believe he is impartial or unbiased in his practice of science...

Does anyone here not participate in the petty trash talk that dominates this thread?
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 26, 2015 - 08:18am PT
In lieu of any real science involved ( observed reality long ago disqualified the theory) in the practition of this most fundamentalist of religions one is limited to the "trash talk" the alarmists are so good at advancing, Edward T.

You noticed that Chiloe didn't deny significant CAGW industry funding. And they are all solid consevative types also- yeah right. Your dealing with totalitarian statist wannabes, on par with the Stalinists, Nazis, or modern Islamic extremist ideology. Don't let the warm , fuzzy , generous and helpful Intellectual character projections of individuals like Ed Hartouni fool you
Cragar

climber
MSLA - MT
Jan 26, 2015 - 08:20am PT
EdwardT, I agree with your sentiment. I still click it for the info and links to papers. I have learned a lot and appreciate the time some folks take to explain the science, it also helps me when I am rooting around the net. Obviously, there is a fair amount of good stuff, along with the sad. Egos be damned.

Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Jan 26, 2015 - 08:35am PT
Upthread I posted a graph of NOAA's deeper ocean heat content index, 0 to 2000 meters. Its most recent values achieved both 3-month and annual high points. Below is their other global index, for 0 to 700 meters. These depths are better measured for a longer time series, so we have 3-month averages back to 1955. The annual average for 0-700 meters also reached its highest values in 2014.

EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jan 26, 2015 - 08:39am PT
The oceans are warming.

Now what?
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Jan 26, 2015 - 09:04am PT
The oceans are warming.
Now what?

Are you waiting for oceanographers to tell you?
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jan 26, 2015 - 09:25am PT
No. I'm asking where we go from here.

The oceans continue to warm. How are we going to use this information?

What's it take to move the conversation forward, beyond the same old verbal sparring?
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Jan 26, 2015 - 09:29am PT
No. I'm asking where we go from here.
The oceans continue to warm. How are we going to use this information?
What's it take to move the conversation forward, beyond the same old verbal sparring?

Have you done any reading? Has anyone ever addressed this question before?
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
Maestro, Ecosystem Ministry, Fatcrackistan
Jan 26, 2015 - 10:41am PT
What's it take to move the conversation forward, beyond the same old verbal sparring?

Lead the way, Eddie T!

Seriously.

DMT
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Jan 26, 2015 - 10:57am PT
intellectual progress is made one funeral at a time
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dominique-browning/an-interview-with-michael-oppenheimer_b_4985770.html



powerpoint at
http://www.pace.edu/paaes/sites/pace.edu.paaes/files/PPT_Oppenheimer_PaceLawSchool_Nov2014.pdf
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
Maestro, Ecosystem Ministry, Fatcrackistan
Jan 26, 2015 - 11:16am PT
So where DO we go from here? Your lead, bro!?

DMT
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Jan 26, 2015 - 11:17am PT
Put in really simple terms, we've got something like these three questions:

1. Is there a problem?

2. If so, what can we do about it?

3. Do I like the answer to 2?

A huge amount of good science answers "yes" to point 1. However, many people who can't read science reason backward to declare that since they don't like the solution (point 3), the problem (point 1) must not exist. This way of thinking has a name in psychological research, solution aversion.

So that's been studied, but on this thread you see some variations on solution aversion that I don't think have a name yet. One of them is for the solution-averse posters to proclaim things like "if you can't answer 2 then shut up about 1!" That's another way of saying nahnahnahnah, and just like that child's trick it does not make reality go away. Physics doesn't care whether we've got a solution or not.

The other variation I see here is that solution-averse people who reason backwards from "no" on 3 to "no" on 1 imagine that other people, scientists for instance, must be equally dishonest but in reverse: those scientists are saying "yes" on 1 because they have some solution they want to push, some version of "yes" on 3. Just as childish as nahnahnahnah, but now with the nastier edge of hate and conspiracy ranting.

What scientists for the most part are doing instead is reporting what they see, such as warming oceans. That's alarming enough that many are trying to make the transition to 2, at least by trying to explain how they know there's a problem. Seen through solution-averse dark glasses that confirms their conspiratorial intentions, but so would their silence, it's truly a closed cognitive system.
JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
Jan 26, 2015 - 12:57pm PT
The argument Chiloe just made coincides with the one I've been making for several years, so, of course, I think he's spot on. Much of the attack on orthodox climate science comes from people who don't like proposed remediation measures. The logical arguments should focus on the likely marginal costs vs. marginal benefits of each proposed measure. While this necessarily involves estimates of climate change, the focus on costs can sharpen and clarify debate much more than arguing often arcane points of statistical inference.

Part of the problem is one that I've seen in environmental law and environmental economics generally since I first started studying these areas in the 1970's: Peoples' values differ, so their opinions of costs vs. benefits differ. That makes it hard to have a rational debate about any particular action. As a result, we end up with policies that often resemble either trying to kill a fly with thermonuclear devices, or trying to bail out a sinking aircraft carrier with a thimble.

That said, I wish those who think some proposed solutions are worse than the problem (this set includes me, by the way, at least for some proposed solutions) would be better served - and better understood - by making the argument focus on the proposed solution, because intelligent minds can differ there. Trying to argue about the science in lay terms strikes me as a lost cause. Every time I've tried to do so in just about any field, one side or the other feels the victim of condescension or ignorance, and therefore tunes out the other side.

John
Cragar

climber
MSLA - MT
Jan 26, 2015 - 01:02pm PT
Good words John the Armenian!!
dave729

Trad climber
Western America
Jan 26, 2015 - 01:40pm PT
Attempting remediation measures for something that is not
happening is the real danger. Taking money away from Warmists
to shut them up seems the best plan. I'm sure the 30 Billions
being spent on falsified global warming paperwork every year can
do some good elsewhere.
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