Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 22, 2015 - 08:56am PT
so what are the "probabilities" that we quoted in this table?

Credit: NASA/NOAA Annual Global Analysis for 2014, slide 5

it's not hard to find all manner of "qualitative" descriptors, but understanding how the probabilities are calculated is, perhaps, a more important science issue.

Any of you understand what it is that is represented in that table?
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 22, 2015 - 09:08am PT
do you understand what "probability" means The Chief?

that table doesn't explain it...
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 22, 2015 - 09:08am PT
The trend apparent In your graph,.Mono, is consistent with the modest .8c rise out of the LIA and should not diminish the fact.........

.
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Jan 22, 2015 - 09:08am PT
Sorry, Chief. Muller was commenting on the BEST temperature series, which shows 2014 tied with 2010 and 2005 which puts it pretty close to NASA/NOAA.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 22, 2015 - 09:28am PT
Well Frosty, you might say I "felt" your professional forecast of epic precip for Ak of a couple weeks ago was wrong, or you might say upon witnessing the pattern of clouds/precip over the preceeding period and considering the unusual isothermic depth of the local atmosphere I was confident in calling b.s. on your expert forecast. Then again, maybe the near fifty percent range of uncertainty in ten day forecasts allowed for equal odds on a bottle spin. Whatever, it is a fact you were wrong about your "confidence in expert council", just like it is a fact that you are in support of the "big lie" on sick and twisted ideological grounds.

I believe that margin of error is .1c Chief, not .01.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 22, 2015 - 10:09am PT
I may be wrong Chief, but I believe our good Dr. Strangelove is in agreement with you. It's just that his pesky computer arm seems to have a life of its own. So, allow me a clearer translation free of the random control arm. " What you fail to understand, The Chief, is that the uncertainty range is shrinking with time and in lockstep with the industry temp fudge factory efforts as well as illusory progress of the industry propaganda arms. Given enough effort at temp adjustment, and of course telling the same lies long enough and through an increasing dominance of state controlled media organs, the record temp claims will achieve parity with truth. At this point, since the uncertainty range will be less than 50%, we will be able to breathlessly announce new record temps without hiding the qualifications which currently negates the confidence level. The important thing to remember is scientism is a messy business and beyond the understanding of mere mortals, but is progressing forwards thanks to the models, praise the prophet.


McHale's Navy

Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
Jan 22, 2015 - 10:57am PT
Great thread everybody! Takes 2 sides to Tango. One thing is for sure; humans are sure much more aware of what's happening on their 'spaceship' these days.
raymond phule

climber
Jan 22, 2015 - 11:06am PT
And, as I asked two days ago when you posted the same lame excuse MONO, which "BEST temperature series" would that be that Mueller is referring to??

LOL
Bob D'A

Trad climber
Taos, NM
Jan 22, 2015 - 11:30am PT
The deniers run with some elite thinkers.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/01/22/3614235/seriously-we-are-all-doomed/
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 22, 2015 - 11:50am PT
Good example of the big lie Frosty. Your presentation of our little bet on your forecast is the polar opposite from the truth. Im the one that offered to reduce the the threshold to 1.5 inches ti give your miserable frozen azz a snowballs chance in hell. You must deluded enough to believe people can't read . Keep up the good work of exposing yourself as the pathetic kook you are.
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Jan 22, 2015 - 11:55am PT
The oceans are warming so fast, they keep breaking scientists' charts


http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2015/jan/22/oceans-warming-so-fast-they-keep-breaking-scientists-charts
http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/index.html


http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/01/22/3614256/hottest-year-ocean-warming/
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/10/141006094511.htm
http://ocean.nationalgeographic.com/ocean/critical-issues-sea-temperature-rise/
http://www.skepticalscience.com/Ocean-Warming-has-been-Greatly-Underestimated.html
http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2014/10/past-measurements-may-have-missed-massive-ocean-warming
crankster

Trad climber
Jan 22, 2015 - 12:04pm PT
The Denier's are one of the following:

Oil Company employees
Religious Fundamentalists
Insane

Or, a combination of any of the above.
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Jan 22, 2015 - 12:19pm PT

And, as I asked two days ago when you posted the same lame excuse MONO, which "BEST temperature series" would that be that Mueller is referring to??

That would be right here, Chiefy:

http://berkeleyearth.org/data
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Jan 22, 2015 - 12:44pm PT
LOL, The Chief didn't know Muller and Best had their own temp data series.


Again, no other global climate agency has declared 2014 as the warmest on record.

JMA was first to announce, Chiefy.

monolith

climber
SF bay area
Jan 22, 2015 - 12:47pm PT
Again, no other global climate agency has declared 2014 as the warmest on record.



Dang you are ignorant, Chiefy.
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Jan 22, 2015 - 01:03pm PT
Having trouble reading a graph, Chief?
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Jan 22, 2015 - 01:05pm PT
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/ann_wld.html

Do you need any further help, Chiefy?
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Jan 22, 2015 - 01:13pm PT
Perhaps you missed this from my last link:

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/ann_wld.html

The annual anomaly of the global average surface temperature in 2014 (i.e. the average of the near-surface air temperature over land and the SST) was +0.27C above the 1981-2010 average (+0.63C above the 20th century average), and was the warmest since 1891. On a longer time scale, global average surface temperatures have risen at a rate of about 0.70C per century.

Five Warmest Years (Anomalies)

1st. 2014(+0.27C)
2nd. 1998(+0.22C)
3rd. 2013,2010(+0.20C)
5th. 2005(+0.17C)
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Jan 22, 2015 - 01:20pm PT
So Chiefy, are you saying 1st is not a record?

BTW, love all your back editing.
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Jan 22, 2015 - 01:23pm PT
1st. 2014(+0.27C), 2nd. 1998(+0.22C), 3rd. 2013,2010(+0.20C), 5th. 2005(+0.17C)


Nope, no RECORD claim. None.

Classic Chief pedantry. 1st is not a record claim.
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