Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Dec 16, 2013 - 03:42pm PT
that is a hell of a good description Crunch. What is your back ground?

In my old business of avalanche safety, uncertainty is so constant and wide ranging that it could be better described as a "craft" than a science, although it is intrinsically very much a science. Thanks very much to the science we know quite well what the processes are, but considering our ferociously limited abilities to observe and quantify data over a wildly variable environment, at times the only reasonable actions are to either run away or carpet bomb.

And that is nowcasting, not forecasting. Most of the time our craft / science is functionally accurate within a very reasonable range of certainty, including the ability to forecast. You could even say that a consensus can be found, and in fact that is exactly how public avalanche bulletins are generated - a polling of relevant expert practitioners. Even Low or High hazard ratings present degrees of uncertainty but If we were to be expected to provide the absolute certainty that Sketch, Rick, Chuff and numerous others imply is required, the mountains would be unapproachable from november until june.

And that is exactly what they imply - that climate science is uncertain, thus it is of no practical use. It is hard to imagine a more ridiculous statement but as has been repeatedly demonstrated, these are ridiculous people.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
Dec 16, 2013 - 06:43pm PT
http://www.weather.com/news/weather-forecast/california-record-driest-year-20131115

Uncertainty ?
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 16, 2013 - 06:58pm PT
wilbeer, don't be a fool. The Chief stuck his finger in a lake and declared there was no drought.

Hey The Chief--come back here and tell us again how there's plenty of water in the lakes you visit!
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Dec 16, 2013 - 07:19pm PT
Water availability ranking for 225 urban areas in the United States

http://soils.ifas.ufl.edu/hydrology/cities/
TGT

Social climber
So Cal
Dec 16, 2013 - 08:58pm PT
http://www.thepiratescove.us/2013/12/16/if-all-you-see-982/
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 16, 2013 - 11:40pm PT
It was good that Ed and Chiloe could "collude" over a few beers the other day then formulate posts that seem to include a middle ground in the climate wars, specifically acknowledgement of what they refer to as the "pause" and theorizing over its cause. This is a good start, though the values of TSI over the satellite period may not be indicative of the true range of variation of the variable star we orbit about. The reliance on just the Enso in Chiloes graphs is simplistic since the PDO, NAO, and AMO likewise have profound effects on climate, and the value ascribed to volcanic aerosols seems suspect since we've been absent any large eruptions in two decades. So, let's see what Mr. Svalgaard has to say about long term variation of solar activity in the review paper linked below. Here is an interesting quote in the abstract-" we simply do not know with any degree of confidence how the variable star, our Sun, has varied over the past 400 years, not to say over much longer time scales before that".

http://www.leif.org/research/Long-term-Variation-Solar-Activity.pdf


If you made it through this paper you are now informed to the extent of the unknowns involving our suns variations and its effect on our climate. The value or "uncertainty" as to the long term range of variation in TSI is unknown. The .01 value advanced by the IPCC is a guesstimate based on non calibrated and discontinuous data from a series of satellites over the last thirty years, data that has a much higher range of variability that the TSI value.
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Dec 16, 2013 - 11:42pm PT
If you made it through this paper you are now informed....


You mean like you?
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 17, 2013 - 01:20am PT
Now why would would a variation of TSI that has never been measured, or been witnessed in the modern instrument age, show up in their statistical analysis Ed? Furthermore their is dispute of the "certainty" of the values entered into the analyses. I intentionally didn't mention the evil word CO2, thinking you guys might be coming out of your caves and beginning to "see the light" of the real world beyond. No cigar, it's CO2 all the way to the bottom of your abyss. Oh well, i hope you guys don't mistake the weather in the coming decade and freeze to death.

EDIT: Just for the satellite age, a period of unusually high activity, and even that is controversial. A grand minimum has never been measured by modern instruments, nor have the other associated activity levels during such a period (solar magnetism, solar wind speed and pressure, values of other spectrum of radiation). Don't throw out your winter clothes just yet.
tioga

Mountain climber
pac northwest
Dec 17, 2013 - 02:16am PT
Try living without a heater and I'll then check back with you about "global warming" complaints...
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Dec 17, 2013 - 08:28am PT
It was good that Ed and Chiloe could "collude" over a few beers the other day then formulate posts that seem to include a middle ground in the climate wars, specifically acknowledgement of what they refer to as the "pause" and theorizing over its cause.

Hah, the few beers were real but after that Rick's lost in his fantasyland of conspiracies and pseudoscience. Ed and I are not colluding types, whatever posts we make are our own thoughts. Mine was inspired by Rick asking me about Svalgaard; I answered with an analysis that, as noted above above, I had originally done two years ago for a book.

Acknowledging the rise in surface temperature indexes has paused is not "a middle ground in the climate wars" either, except in Rick's imagination. Scientists have been writing about that for several years; I don't know a single one who denies that in the last decade or so, SAT indexes have slowed their rise -- it's right there in the data. What to make of that is a different question.

A few pages back I posted this compact summary of recent research on this topic, all of which Rick apparently forgot to read. Don't think he can or will this time either, but the post reflects some work by me because I actually did read and think about these references. So I'll post it again.

The Cato graph showed trends instead of temperatures because they want to emphasize that trends in the surface air indexes have been relatively flat in recent years. This is true as far as it goes, but leaves out a whole lot of recent research showing that:

1. The "pause" in surface temperature rise largely vanishes if we control for ENSO, volcanic and solar variations (Foster & Rahmstorf 2011) -- which as Ed has pointed out, the models never claimed to predict.

2. ENSO effects in particular suggest that more heat is being cycled into the oceans. And sure enough, ocean heat content and sea level have continued to rise (Balmaseda et al. 2013).

3. The seasonal and geographic pattern of surface temperatures is consistent with this ENSO effect (Kosaka & Xie 2013
[or see this summary in Science]).

4. The surface temperature indexes not only overlook the deep ocean, they also tend to over-represent ENSO-affected regions, and under-represent regions with less ENSO impact -- most notably the Arctic, where surface temperatures have risen most steeply. Add the Arctic back in, and surface temperatures are still rising (Cowtan & Way 2013).

Points 1-4 above are drawn from peer-reviewed papers within the past two years, all previously cited on this thread.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Dec 17, 2013 - 08:46am PT
The reliance on just the Enso in Chiloes graphs is simplistic since the PDO, NAO, and AMO likewise have profound effects on climate,

If Rick read real science instead of pseudoscience bloggers he would know that many people have tested for PDO, NAO and AMO effects (including Foster & Rahmstorf). Even I tested for AMO effects in my simple model, and found that including the AMO index actually strengthens the estimated effect of CO2.


and the value ascribed to volcanic aerosols seems suspect since we've been absent any large eruptions in two decades.

Not just tens of thousands of scientists but satellites and volcano-observers worldwide are part of Rick's vast conspiracy.
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
U.N. Ambassador, Crackistan
Dec 17, 2013 - 08:50am PT
Chiloe I am following the money, per the Ricks sage advice.

Do you get paid by the post or by the word, for spreading the conspiracy here on the Taco? Just curious I guess! If its by the word I bet Ed's gonna pay for his new Sprinter by Spring :) Yay!

DMT
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Dec 17, 2013 - 11:31am PT
It was good that Ed and Chiloe could "collude" over a few beers the other day then formulate posts that seem to include a middle ground in the climate wars, specifically acknowledgement of what they refer to as the "pause" and theorizing over its cause.

Jesus christ Rick you are a relentless coward. If you really want to say these two guys are conspiring to disseminate propaganda why cant you just say it in straight english instead of sly insinuation? Perhaps because you cannot stand by your words like this guy?




In case you are not following the gutter feed spectacle that is the Mayor of Toronto, his latest foot in mouth disease is using the cowards language of insinuation to imply that a certain newspaper reporter is a pedophile. Because he is also a proudly beligerant idiot, he then insinuates it a few more times and then buries himself neck deep in bullshit by arrogantly "standing by his words".

He is now being sued for defamation, and rightly so.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Dec 17, 2013 - 11:47am PT
Do you get paid by the post or by the word, for spreading the conspiracy here on the Taco?

I'm still waiting for my check from Al Gore, dammit! If he doesn't answer all my letters soon I'm gonna accept that great business offer from the widow of General Osfinko.

Ah well. There's a good new post on this topic at Realclimate today,

The global temperature jigsaw

Since 1998 the global temperature has risen more slowly than before. Given the many explanations for colder temperatures discussed in the media and scientific literature (La Niña, heat uptake of the oceans, arctic data gap, etc.) one could jokingly ask why no new ice age is here yet. This fails to recognize, however, that the various ingredients are small and not simply additive. Here is a small overview and attempt to explain how the different pieces of the puzzle fit together.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 17, 2013 - 12:02pm PT
Well Chiloe, and all other weather wackos claiming that the 2013 sea ice recovery was just thin first year ice with no increase in volume, suck on these ice cubes. If enough of you hotheads immediately start sucking perhaps you can turn this increase around before it becomes a trend. Read em weep crybabies.

http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Observing_the_Earth/Cryostat/Arctic_sea_ice_up_from_record_low

Or alternately: Go to the link below and click on Europes Cryosat Spacecraft

http://notrickszone.com



Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Dec 17, 2013 - 12:09pm PT
"oops! something went wrong" with your link rick.....


but that is a common theme
Sketch

Trad climber
Langley, VA
Dec 17, 2013 - 12:21pm PT
For Rick -

http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Observing_the_Earth/CryoSat/Arctic_sea_ice_up_from_record_low

Measurements from ESA’s CryoSat satellite show that the volume of Arctic sea ice has significantly increased this autumn.

The volume of ice measured this autumn is about 50% higher compared to last year.

In October 2013, CryoSat measured about 9000 cubic km of sea ice – a notable increase compared to 6000 cubic km in October 2012....

About 90% of the increase is due to growth of multiyear ice – which survives through more than one summer without melting – with only 10% growth of first year ice. Thick, multiyear ice indicates healthy Arctic sea-ice cover.

This year’s multiyear ice is now on average about 20%, or around 30 cm, thicker than last year.

For the warmists -

While this increase in ice volume is welcome news, it does not indicate a reversal in the long-term trend.

“It’s estimated that there was around 20 000 cubic kilometres of Arctic sea ice each October in the early 1980s, and so today’s minimum still ranks among the lowest of the past 30 years,” said Professor Andrew Shepherd from University College London, a co-author of the study.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Dec 17, 2013 - 12:24pm PT
Well Chiloe, and all other weather wackos claiming that the 2013 sea ice recovery was just thin first year ice with no increase in volume

Rick's lost in his fantasyland. More reality-based folks may recall how Chief got so flummoxed because I posted this graphic back in early September, showing the clear 1-year increase in volume (in context with its nonlinear decadal decline).

Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Dec 17, 2013 - 12:27pm PT
Then, more than a month ago (Nov 10), I updated my volume graphic using the final September data.



Why sea ice volume is back in the news now: The Cryosat research team has independently confirmed the earlier conclusions (not the numerical estimates themselves -- those aren't comparable) of the PIOMAS research team.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 17, 2013 - 12:40pm PT
If the effects are at best minor players Ed, then how do you explain the collapse of the thermosphere during the minimum of cycle 23/24. There is no way the climatology community has identified, explained, and assigned the effect and values of all solar processes responsible for climate change on Earth. Svalgaard, who Chiloe claims to have no problems with his research, clearly states that in his upcoming 2014 paper i linked on the last page.
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