Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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TGT

Social climber
So Cal
Sep 24, 2014 - 06:42pm PT
crankster

Trad climber
Sep 24, 2014 - 06:55pm PT
Better
http://thedailyshow.cc.com/videos/8q3nmm/burn-noticed
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Sep 24, 2014 - 06:56pm PT
wilbeer, this is a really cool, well-produced, and funny skit. The trend line between two points is appropriate, as is the sunglasses remark:

Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Sep 24, 2014 - 07:52pm PT
TGT, do you have specific evidence that 13 misconceptions youtube skit is wrong?

or is it just then when you have a question like "what is the capital of Italy?" you ignore geographers, and have Jay Leno do a selected survey of people on the streets as in "Jaywalking"
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Sep 24, 2014 - 07:54pm PT
I'm leaving you with some better questions to stir the pot.
(not that anyone should demand an answer, you can always try to look up yourself)

A summary of the main inputs to forecasts are graphs like these:
Malemute Sep 2 2014 http://www.supertopo.com/climbing/thread.php?topic_id=970221&msg=2478953#msg2478953
The forcings of course are simplified to average out typical oscillations and durations. Solar variation is very small.
Notice that the net imbalance has a big uncertainty (.2 to 1.0 W/m2)
What year is that imbalance for? And compared to when (what baseline)?
What is the timeframe and baseline of that net imbalance?
How much does it change in the long term with more GHGs? - what will it be in 40 years?
And what is the likelihood of the outer uncertainty bands, in both the short term and long term?

Aug 31 Ed posted a pic of the overall energy balance that gives a net of 1.6 w/m2 (.6 to 2.4)
http://www.supertopo.com/inc/photo_zoom.php?dpid=Ojg8OzgjKCYhLQ,,
What is the year that is calculated for, and against what baseline year?
What will it be in the long run with more GHGs?

And there's a different figure here, baseline of 1750, Net imbalance shown for 1950, 1980, and 2011.
http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5presentation1403.pptx
Page 12

Now go to pages 14-21 of that summary.
A question for the skeptics.
Notice that regardless of what has happened so far, the biggest changes show up mainly after 2040.
Even in the rosiest scenario, sea level rises .42 meter, surface temps another 1 degree C, compared to year 2000.
That scenario requires action now.
The less rosy scenarios get worse - temperature rise of additional 2-4 degrees C (3.5 to 7 degrees F),
sea level rises .5 to .75 meter. (Shows the delayed effect of how long melting takes).
Do you have particular disputes with this,
or you just don't like hearing it?

one more
Look at figure 3 of http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/decadal-fc
What is the general slope of the Blue section for 2014 to 2018?
Slightly upwards or significantly upwards?
Why are they so focused on the short run - the next 4 years?
Most importantly, What does that slope change to in the longer run with more GHG's?
What is the likelihood of the uncertainty, versus the average slope?
Is their model different than the IPCC consensus, or is it similar but short term?


rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Sep 24, 2014 - 08:44pm PT
Judith Curry and Nic Lewis have a newly published paper on TCR and ECS up at Climate Etc. Using observational data from AR5 they come up with significantly lower numbers than the GCM generated numbers from AR5. Worth a look since these values agree better with recent (climate or weather, argue as you will) 21st century trends.
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Sep 24, 2014 - 09:16pm PT
deniers are Liars

http://www.circleofblue.org/waternews/2011/world/peter-gleick-misrepresenting-climate-science-cherry-picking-data-for-political-purposes/
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/peter-h-gleick/misrepresenting-climate-s_b_819367.html

full size image at http://images.huffingtonpost.com/2011-02-07-Arcticgateimages1A.jpg
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Sep 25, 2014 - 12:00am PT
Curry & Lewis paper and model is simply one of many in building a consensus among scientists. Certain blogs of course latch onto lower temperature forecasts not because they understand any of it, but simply because it confirms what they want to hear.
It seems far more reasonable to consider the whole range of estimates before figuring out the best summary, which is what the IPCC does.

http://www.climatedialogue.org/climate-sensitivity-and-transient-climate-response/
read the Guest blog John Fasullo

http://skepticalscience.com/gwpf-lewis-crock-climate-sensitivity-optimism-ill-founded.html

http://skepticalscience.com/wsj-downplays-global-warming-risks-again.html
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Sep 25, 2014 - 06:58am PT
Don't be so coy, Sketch.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/09/25/new-research-finds-earth-even-less-sensitive-to-co2-than-previously-thought/
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Sep 25, 2014 - 07:08am PT
Don't be so coy, Sketch.

SSDD
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Sep 25, 2014 - 07:12am PT
And Sketch, it's not CO2 'forcing', it's CO2 'sensitivity'.

Here's a gold star for you for effort in the 'trying to sound smart' category.
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Sep 25, 2014 - 07:52am PT
Latest fudge of climate numbers shows continued scam

What, no source? I see why.

Because when folks post stuff that's not from a scientific journal, The Chief knocks it down with a line similar to the following, "Now you're quoting blogs as if they were from a scientific journal," or, "so-and-so isn't a scientist."


And The Chief would never post something that isn't from a scientific paper because if he did, he'd be a hypocrite.


And then Sketch, who also jumps on folks when they post quotes from blogs, would have to jump on his cohort, which could lead to ugly things.
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Sep 25, 2014 - 08:07am PT
http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/greenland-s-dark-snow-climate-threat-worse-than-thought-1.2776628
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Sep 25, 2014 - 02:54pm PT
I can understand your frustration Bruce, what with the majority of the populace (including us who vocalize here) not taking the multi hundreds of billion dollar government and enviro organizations hysterical climate propaganda stream as anything but fiction. No amigo, blame the incompetent scientists and bumbling government/criminal element for not being able to construct a bullet proof fiction with that amount of funding.

As for sympathizing with you over the imminent collapse of this socialist chosen vehicle and the consequent endangerment of implementation failure to the agenda you seem mentally, if not financially dependent on, I do not. Either shut the whining trap and crawl out of the bottle to seek gainful employment or crawl back in and seek solace from the worm.
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Sep 25, 2014 - 05:13pm PT
BOOT them out

http://nextgenclimate.org/elections/#/intro
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Sep 25, 2014 - 10:30pm PT
I guess you have placed your trust in a group of experts ,that, in spite of having untold billions of dollars and the late 20th century solar grand maximum on their side, proved themselves to be more a bumbling criminal enterprise than as scientists and pols with a believable imperative.

You see Bruce, no one person can achieve expertise in all disciplines, in fact relatively few. One can inform themselves to the best of their abilities, but in the end you must rely on the expertise of the most experienced , informed , intelligent and trustworthy of people in fields you do not have enough time and energy to achieve true expertise for yourself. And now what might be beyond your ability to comprehend; recognition of truth. You approached this debate already having rigid beliefs that probably extended far past any realm of logic, through emotion, and possibly to material investment of significant proportions as compared to your means. I have no such dog in the fight, having believed in the narrative before
lies I witnessed with my own eyes and ears prompted me to study the science I could access . What this revealed to me is the large group of scientists whose expertise I trust. They are not the CAGW group.





crankster

Trad climber
Sep 25, 2014 - 10:37pm PT
photo not found
Missing photo ID#379290
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Sep 26, 2014 - 07:46am PT
President Obama Speaks at the 2014 Climate Summit



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oWrzXp2uJRM

transcript at http://www.c-span.org/video/?321662-1/president-obama-remarks-un-climate-summit
Jingy

climber
Somewhere out there
Sep 26, 2014 - 09:45am PT
Ending Thought:
Can I look back on my life and call mine a life well lived if I have not done something to further humanity?




 Just a memorable video....



Is it real?


Does it exist?


I am personally proud to have her as a speaker on my behalf...


How about you?



Dear Matefele Peinam
Kathy Jetnil-Kijiner

dear matafele peinam,
you are a seven month old sunrise of gummy smiles
you are bald as an egg and bald as the buddha
you are thunder thighs and lightning shrieks
so excited for bananas, hugs and
our morning walks past the lagoon
dear matafele peinam,
i want to tell you about that lagoon
that lucid, sleepy lagoon lounging against the sunrise
some men say that one day
that lagoon will devour you
they say it will gnaw at the shoreline
chew at the roots of your breadfruit trees
gulp down rows of your seawalls
and crunch your islandís shattered bones
they say you, your daughter
and your granddaughter, too
will wander rootless
with only a passport to call home
dear matafele peinam,
donít cry
mommy promises you
no one
will come and devour you
no greedy whale of a company sharking through
political seas
no backwater bullying of businesses with broken morals no blindfolded
bureaucracies gonna push
this mother ocean over
the edgeno oneís drowning, baby
no oneís moving
no oneís losing
their homeland
no oneís gonna become
a climate change refugee
or should i say
no one else
to the carteret islanders of papua new guinea
and to the taro islanders of fiji
i take this moment
to apologize to you
we are drawing the line here
because baby we are going to fight
your mommy daddy
bubu jimma your country and president too
we will all fight
and even though there are those
hidden behind platinum titles
who like to pretend
that we donít exist
that the marshall islands
tuvalu
kiribati
maldives
and typhoon haiyan in the philippines
and floods of pakistan, algeria, and colombia
and all the hurricanes, earthquakes, and tidalwaves
didnít exist
still
there are those
who see us
hands reaching out
fists raising up
banners unfurling
megaphones booming
and we are
canoes blocking coal ships
we are
the radiance of solar villageswe are
the rich clean soil of the farmerís past
we are
petitions blooming from teenage fingertips
we are
families biking, recycling, reusing,
engineers dreaming, designing, building,
artists painting, dancing, writing
we are spreading the word
and there are thousands out on the street
marching with signs
hand in hand
chanting for change NOW
theyíre marching for you, baby
theyíre marching for us
because we deserve to do more than just
survive
we deserve
to thrive
dear matafele peinam,
you are eyes heavy
with drowsy weight
so just close those eyes, baby
and sleep in peace
because we wonít let you down
youíll see

 See more at: http://www.rtcc.org/2014/09/23/marshall-islands-poet-we-deserve-to-do-more-than-just-survive/#sthash.JvJOnAMk.dpuf


And in my final hours...
Can I look back on my life and call mine a life well lived if I have not done something to further humanity?

rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Sep 26, 2014 - 07:07pm PT
You do babble on incessantly, now don't you Bruce? If I ever had to rope up with you on a lengthy climb I would precondition it by requiring a sock in your mouth and a full roll of tape firmly fixing it in place, any person wanting to retain their sanity would require this.

Now, to answer you a final time . I was accepting of global warming up to about 2003. At this point Ak had distinctly cooled for four years. Winters of old had returned, but I kept hearing from crackpot freindly media that alaska's warming was accelerating unabated. Later we had to endurethe complete fallacy of P-Bears being endangered as well as sociologists posing as climate scientists claiming that native villages situated on constantly shifting coastal sands and barrier islands that have been eternally mobile were climate refugees. All, bald faced lies used as aids to advance a rabid environmental agenda. There was no mistaking it, and after some studying up, I came to realize the scam CAGW science was.

Believe what you will Bruce, but I can tell you this: I've researched this topic enough to competently judge the validity of large parts of the reams of material by comparison to the truth of the observational record.
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