Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 3, 2013 - 10:29pm PT
Well Bruce, i reached out one last time to see if you could open your narrow, delusional mind and just possibly get a grip on something resembling reality. You failed just as spectacularly as the models of the climate scientism church wackos. Babble on brother, i don't give a flying fk about your amateur psychology. Nobody's paying attention.
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Dec 3, 2013 - 11:31pm PT
Just some additional insight into Rick's post above...

“When one person suffers from a delusion, it is called insanity. When many people suffer from a delusion it is called a Religion.”

― Robert M. Pirsig, Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance: An Inquiry Into Values



“We have artists with no scientific knowledge and scientists with no
artistic knowledge and both with no spiritual sense of gravity at all,
and the result is not just bad, it is ghastly.”
― Robert M. Pirsig, Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance: An Inquiry Into Values
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 4, 2013 - 10:54am PT
WASHINGTON -- Climatic changes -- and the results of those changes -- could occur within decades or even sooner, and they are becoming a greater concern for scientists, according to a new paper from the National Academy of Sciences.



The Chief, Rick, Ron, anybody... Can you tell me why you think the National Academy of Sciences is lying?

If you say it's for the money, you need to show the paper trail of the money they're making--you know, back up your claim.

Can anybody make a reasonable argument here, and not just utter a bunch of jibberish?

Simple question, you should have a simple answer.
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Dec 4, 2013 - 10:59am PT
Simple...


Job Security.


Dah!
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Dec 4, 2013 - 11:17am PT
you have to understand that when Chuff judges the world, he references himself.... as any self respecting narcissist would.

Thus they lie to protect their job security. As we all know Chuff is not shy about deception in order to protect his position .... one can only speculate as to how he applied this peculiar ethic in his profession of pumping bilge water.

here is something interesting, related to competence and the Dunning Krugger:

Far from undermining the scientific consensus on climate change, then, the new study could be said to strengthen it, by defining who's a relevant expert in the first place. "You listen to the scientists who really know the field in question," says George Mason's Neil Stenhouse, a Ph.D. student and the study's lead author. "And previous studies show that if you ask the scientists who really know climate change, there is high consensus on human causation."

Similarly, after sorting AMS members by their climate expertise as well as their scientific publishing record, Stenhouse's study found that this seemed to have a big impact on their views about climate change. "93% of actively publishing climate scientists indicated they are convinced that humans have contributed to global warming," noted the study's authors. By contrast, among "non-publishing" climate scientists, only 65 percent believed that humans have contributed to global warming.

Something similar occurred with a different set of experts within AMS: meteorologists and atmospheric scientists. Those who published a lot on climate change, or a lot on other aspects of meteorological science, generally showed much higher conviction that humans are contributing to global warming (79 percent and 78 percent, respectively) than the "non-publishing" experts (59 percent).

And there's more bad news for skeptics who want to cite this AMS survey to bolster their case. You see, the study also showed that conservative political ideology is a big factor behind the denial of climate science by some meteorologists—ideology was a consistently bigger influence on meteorologists' views, in fact, than their level of scientific expertise. This finding of a major role for ideology, write the researchers, "goes against the idea of scientists' opinions being entirely based on objective analysis of the evidence."

http://www.motherjones.com/blue-marble/2013/12/why-some-meteorologists-still-deny-climate-science



The obvious next study should try to answer the question "Does incompetency cause right wing ideology or does right wing ideology cause incompetency?"
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Dec 4, 2013 - 12:05pm PT
"Abrupt climate change" became a thing, on my radar at least, in the late 1990s as papers came out of the GISP2 Greenland ice core project. GISP2 data showed clearly that fast, dramatic climate changes have occurred in the not-to-distant past, building a picture of climate as sleeping dragon. That inspired a lot of research on why such abrupt changes could happen. Thermohaline shutdown (e.g., the Gulf Stream) became a favored hypothesis, and I think that's still current -- but modern conditions, the modelers say, are unlikely to reproduce that very soon.

Nor does the NAS panel favor the "methane gun" hypothesis, another doomsday mechanism that has gotten some play in the press, and investigation by science. So while the NAS team is reassuring on those two scenarios, they note other problems that now look (to them) more capable of bringing things down fast.
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Dec 4, 2013 - 12:38pm PT
surprises are indeed inevitable.

SO it takes a PhD to figure out that planet earth is a DYNAMIC and not a static biosphere.

Isn't this all a "surprise".

Kind a like telling us all that some donut's do have holes in the center of em.


Niiiiiiiiiiiice.


Like I said, Job Security.


“When one person suffers from a delusion, it is called insanity. When many people suffer from a delusion it is called a Religion.”

― Robert M. Pirsig, Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance: An Inquiry Into Values
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Relic MilkEye and grandpoobah of HBRKRNH
Dec 4, 2013 - 01:21pm PT
at a bristling 4 degrees this am,, i couldnt help but think of globull warming...I searched high and low for that .06 of globull warming, but could not find it any where.
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Dec 4, 2013 - 01:25pm PT
Go out in your yard and look under the stack of empties...... I put it there when you were sleeping one off Ron.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Dec 4, 2013 - 02:00pm PT
Jim White introduces the NAS Abrupt Change report with this homey note.

Can all tipping points be foreseen? Probably not. Some will have no precursors, or may be triggered by naturally occurring variability in the climate system. Some will be difficult to detect, clearly visible only after they have been crossed and an abrupt change becomes inevitable. Imagine an early European explorer in North America, paddling a canoe on the swift river. This river happens to be named Niagara, but the paddler does not know that. As the paddler approaches the Falls, the roar of the water goes from faint to alarming, and the paddler desperately tries to make for shore. But the water is too swift, the tipping point has already been crossed, and the canoe—with the paddler—goes over the Falls. This tipping point is certainly hard to anticipate, but is it inevitable? No. The tipping point in this case could have been detected by an early warning system (listening for the roar of a waterfall), but importantly, prudence was required. Sticking closer to shore, in other words taking some prudent precautions, could have saved the paddler. Precaution will help us today as well as we face a changing climate, if we are prudent enough to exercise it. Key to this is the need to be watching and listening for the early warning signals.
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Dec 4, 2013 - 02:14pm PT
^^^^^ And such is life on planet earth. Welcome. ^^^^^^^
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Dec 4, 2013 - 02:17pm PT
In table form (S.1), the NAS report outlines the "state of knowledge on potential candidate processes that might undergo abrupt change. These include both abrupt climate changes in the physical climate system and abrupt climate impacts of ongoing changes that, when certain thresholds are crossed, can cause abrupt impacts for society and ecosystems."

Among these, two processes are singled out as having highest potential for abrupt change in this century:

Late-summer disappearance of Arctic sea ice
• Large and irreversible effects on various components of the Arctic ecosystem
• Impacts on human society and economic development in coastal polar regions
• Implications for Arctic shipping and resource extraction
• Potential to alter large-scale atmospheric circulation and its variability

Increases in extinctions of marine and terrestrial species
• Loss of high percentage of coral reef ecosystems (already underway)
• Significant percentage of land mammal, bird, and amphibian species extinct or endangered

This last point strikes me as particularly salient because, as the report notes, many species face combined pressure from "other extinction drivers" besides climate -- overfishing and marine pollution, deforestation, soil degradation and so forth. Jellyfish for dinner!
yosemite 5.9

climber
santa cruz
Dec 4, 2013 - 05:36pm PT
Sun’s Bizarre Activity May Trigger Another Little Ice Age (Or Not): ‘Solar activity is in gradual decline’

By: Marc Morano - Climate DepotJuly 15, 2013 4:27 PM

Sun’s Bizarre Activity May Trigger Another Little Ice Age (Or Not)

http://www.thegwpf.org/suns-bizarre-activity-trigger-ice-age/

The sun is acting bizarrely and scientists have no idea why. Solar activity is in gradual decline, a change from the norm which in the past triggered a 300-year-long mini ice age.

Illustration mapping the steady decline in sunspot activity over the last two solar cycles with predicted figures for the current cycle 24
Three leading solar scientists presented the very latest data about the weakening solar activity at a teleconference yesterday in Boulder, Colorado, organised by the American Astronomical Society. It featured experts from Nasa, the High Altitude Observatory and the National Solar Observatory who described how solar activity, as measured by the formation of sunspots and by massive explosions on the sun’s surface, has been falling steadily since the mid-1940s.
The sun goes through a regular 11-year cycle with a maximum, when sunspot activity is at its peak, followed by a minimum when sunspot numbers are reduced and are smaller and less energetic. We are supposed to be at a peak of activity, at solar maximum.
Outside the norm
The current situation, however, is outside the norm and the number of sunspots seems in steady decline. The sun was undergoing “bizarre behaviour” said Dr Craig DeForest of the society.
“The sun’s current maximum activity period is very late and very weak, leading to speculation that the sunspot cycle itself could be shutting down or entering a dormant phase,” he said before the teleconference.
Irish solar science specialist Dr Ian Elliott, formerly of the Dublin Institute for Advanced Studies, quoted from figures released by Nasa on July 1st. It had asked an expert group to predict sunspot activity using models, with an upper limit and a lower limit.
The predictions suggested the monthly average sunspot total should range between 90 and 140, but in fact the present monthly average is only 67, Dr Elliott said. A typical average at maximum during much of the early 20th century was about 200.
“It is the smallest solar maximum we have seen in 100 years,” said Dr David Hathaway of Nasa. We are currently in solar cycle number 24 which is about half as active as cycle 23, but cycle 25 is likely to be smaller again due to changes in the magnetic flux on the sun’s surface,” he said.
Dr Giuliana de Toma of the High Altitude Observatory acknowledged the clear signs that solar activity was in decline but this did not mean the earth was heading for another “Maunder Minimum”. This was a time between 1645 and 1725 when solar activity was extremely low or nonexistent, a situation which caused a mini ice age.
The fall-off in sunspot activity still has the potential to affect our weather for the worse, Dr Elliott said. Research by Prof Mike Lockwood at the University of Reading showed how low solar activity could alter the position of the jet stream over the north Atlantic, causing severe cold during winter months. This was likely the cause of the very cold and snowy winters during 2009 and 2010, Dr Elliott said.
“It all points to perhaps another little ice age,” he said. “It seems likely we are going to enter a period of very low solar activity and could mean we are in for very cold winters.”
And while the researchers in the US said the data showed a decline in activity, they had no way to predict what that might mean for the future.
The Irish Times, 12 July 2013
see also -
yosemite 5.9

climber
santa cruz
Dec 4, 2013 - 05:56pm PT
shown to scale.  Sunspots are declining into 2020 and are predicted to...
shown to scale. Sunspots are declining into 2020 and are predicted to stay low rest of the century. Borrowed money for nothing spent on avoiding global warming.
Credit: yosemite 5.9
wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
Dec 4, 2013 - 06:07pm PT
Credit: wilbeer

60f tommorow,NORMAL,my ass.


But ,hey ,were going kayaking!We do not get good sized snow melts often any more.

100 yards from my house
100 yards from my house
Credit: wilbeer
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Dec 4, 2013 - 06:35pm PT
By: Marc Morano - Climate DepotJuly 15, 2013 4:27 PM

Another blogger heard from. Just to balance blogger with blogger,

Marc Morano
Credentials

B.A., Political Science, George Mason University. [1]

Background

In 2009 Marc Morano became the executive director and chief correspondent of ClimateDepot.com, a project of the Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow (CFACT), a conservative think-tank based out of Washington D.C. that has received funding from ExxonMobil, Chevron, as well as hundreds of thousands of dollars from foundations associated with Richard Mellon Scaife. According to 2011 IRS Forms (PDF), Morano was the highest paid staff member with a salary of $150,000 per year. Morano's blog Climate Depot regularly publishes articles questioning man-made global warming. [12], [13], [6]

Although he has no scientific expertise in the area, Morano has become a prominent climate change skeptic. He has been called "the Matt Drudge of climate denial", the "King of the skeptics," and a "central cell of the climate-denial machine." He was also listed as one of 17 top "climate killers" by Rolling Stone Magazine. He has accused climate scientists of "fear mongering," and has claimed that proponents of man-made global warming are "funded to the tune of $50 billion." [15], [16]

From 2006 to 2009 Morano was the communications director for Senator James Inhofe (R-Okla.), the minority chair of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee. Prior to the last election, Inhofe was the majority chair of the EPW committee. In the 2002 election cycle, Senator Inhofe received more in donations from the oil and gas sector than any other Senator. Sen. Inhofe is known for his infamous quote that the threat of catastrophic global warming is the "greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people," and as his communications director, Mornano has spent his recent years propagating this message. [3]
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Dec 4, 2013 - 06:38pm PT
Or, much better, to balance blogger with science, here's the most recent work I've seen about what caused the Little Ice Age (also cited and discussed upthread):

http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/01/30/new-cu-led-study-may-answer-long-standing-questions-about-enigmatic-little
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 4, 2013 - 07:41pm PT
The Chief, Rick, Ron, anybody... Can you tell me why you think the National Academy of Sciences is lying?


No takers, as expected.



All these AWG deniers, jabber jabber jabber. But when it comes to defending their position (that the world's climate scientists are lying), they can't rub two sticks together.
Wade Icey

Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
Dec 4, 2013 - 07:58pm PT
the perfect gift

http://www.treehugger.com/climate-change/climate-models-calendar.html
wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
Dec 4, 2013 - 08:07pm PT
Thanks Wade.

Do Libertarians buy gifts?
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