Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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Wade Icey

Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
Dec 12, 2013 - 01:17pm PT
no fx whatsoever
no fx whatsoever
Credit: Dunning-Kruger
Jebus H Bomz

climber
Peavine Basecamp
Dec 12, 2013 - 01:18pm PT
Rick S.: doesn't believe in but somehow feels let down by climate science. Can't make this stuff up!

Did you plan your construction around predictions you don't even believe? If so, you are truly top stooge. No mean feat amongst your crew!
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Dec 12, 2013 - 01:20pm PT
Your Guilty!

All based on 95% certainty and off you go to the gas chamber.

Perfect.
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Dec 12, 2013 - 01:25pm PT
Who says anything about gas chambers?

I'm perfectly satisfied with you wearing a sign around your neck that says "IDIOT"

Which you seem to be more than willing to do all on your own.
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Relic MilkEye and grandpoobah of HBRKRNH
Dec 12, 2013 - 01:30pm PT
Hey Brucie,, this thread is 4 yrs old and we are arguing the same dang numbers. That ALONE should tell you something~~ EH....
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
U.N. Ambassador, Crackistan
Dec 12, 2013 - 01:34pm PT
Um... Yeah? Same numbers. . .. Now why is that Ron do you suppose?

DMT
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Relic MilkEye and grandpoobah of HBRKRNH
Dec 12, 2013 - 01:36pm PT
Because,,,,,"aint nuthin changed" Dingus. The world isnt getting warmer, nor following "models".
JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
Dec 12, 2013 - 01:40pm PT
My god man, with a 5% margin of error i would have been out of business years ago. With a 5% error rate my homes would have been unsaleable. If you were a mechanic and finished an engine rebuild and had 5% of the parts remaining from the original you'd be laughed out of the shop. What is 5% of of 40 billion dollars ( an amount likely to have been spent in CAGW research over the last decade alone), let's see -S200,000,000.00 dollars, and all for an uncertainty that far out weighs the value of the hyped effect. Can we please get an adult to supervise these climate disaster kids.The whole affair is pretty shameful Ed.

The 5% margin of error would make you exceedingly rich playing the stock market, but wipe you out selling gasoline. I wish my economic forecasts could have that kind of accuracy. I'd have a monopoly on the market.

I doubt anyone seriously doubts that the margin of error increases for predictions of complex systems. That shouldn't mean you ignore the predictions. Rather, it should mean that you consider the probable range of outcomes. It bothers me to read arguments to the effect that if we predict with uncertainty, we should ignore the predictions. Any experienced card player knows better.

John
Wade Icey

Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
Dec 12, 2013 - 01:42pm PT
"aint nuthin changed" Dingus. The world isnt getting warmer, nor following "models"

They still haven't fired Greg Stock.


From the Lyell glacier I hardly Knew ye-


Today's LA Times interview with Greg Stock:


Yosemite's largest ice mass is melting fast

Lyell Glacier has shrunk 62% over the past century and hasn't moved in years. It's a key source of water in the park, and scientists say it will be gone in 20 years.

Credit: Wade Icey


The photo on the left of Lyell Glacier in Yosemite National Park was taken by the U.S. Geological Survey in 1883; the one on the right was taken by park geologist Greg Stock in late September.
Credit: (U.S. Geological Survey; Greg Stock)



By Louis Sahagun
October 1, 2013, 9:12 p.m.



Climate change is taking a visible toll on Yosemite National Park, where the largest ice mass in the park is in a death spiral, geologists say.


During an annual trek to the glacier deep in Yosemite's backcountry last month, Greg Stock, the park's first full-time geologist, found that Lyell Glacier had shrunk visibly since his visit last year, continuing a trend that began more than a century ago.

Lyell has dropped 62% of its mass and lost 120 vertical feet of ice over the last 100 years. "We give it 20 years or so of existence then it'll vanish, leaving behind rocky debris," Stock said.

The Sierra Nevada Mountains have roughly 100 remaining glaciers, two of them in Yosemite. The shrinkage of glaciers across the Sierra is also occurring around the world. Great ice sheets are dwindling, prompting concerns about what happens next to surrounding ecological systems after perennial rivulets of melted ice disappear.

"We've looked at glaciers in California, Colorado, Wyoming, Washington and elsewhere, and they're all thinning because of warming temperatures and less precipitation," said Andrew Fountain, professor of geology and geography at Portland State University in Oregon. "This is the beginning of the end of these things."

If carbon dioxide levels continue to rise, the earth will eventually become ice-free, according to a study by Ken MacLeod, a professor of geological sciences at the University of Missouri, published in the October issue of the journal Geology.

Research by scientists at NASA, the U.S. Geological Survey and UC Davis suggests that absorption of sunlight in snow by industrial air pollution including soot, or black carbon, is also causing snow and ice to melt faster.

Yosemite's other glacier, Maclure, is also shrinking, but it remains alive and continues to creep at a rate of about an inch a day.

Lyell, however, hasn't budged. It is the second largest glacier in the Sierra Nevada and the headwater of the Tuolumne River watershed, but it no longer fits the definition of a glacier because it has ceased moving.

"Lyell Glacier is stagnant a clear sign it's dying," Stock said. "Our research indicates it stopped moving about a decade ago."

Of particular concern is the effect on Yosemite's Tuolumne Meadows. After two years of drought, many of the streams that nourish the picturesque meadowlands have gone dry. The one exception, however, is the Lyell Fork of the Tuolumne River, which is sustained by runoff from Lyell and Maclure glaciers.

"When the glaciers are gone, there will be no steady supplies of water in that drainage," Stock said. "We don't know what the impacts of that will be on plants and animals that evolved with these ice flows."

Future research projects will attempt to use climate shifts chronicled in the widths of tree rings in nearby forests to create computer models that will show the shrinkage of Yosemite's glaciers over the last 300 years and help predict when they will disappear entirely.

Scientists also want to know why Lyell has stopped moving when neighboring Maclure, which is half the size it was a century ago, continues to advance at the same rate it did when naturalist John Muir and his friend Galen Clark hammered wooden stakes into its icy crust in 1872 to prove that glaciers are "living" because they move and alter the landscape as they do so.

"Glaciers tend to flow like honey down a plate, or slide over meltwater beneath them," Stock said. "We suspect Lyell just isn't thick enough anymore to drive a downhill motion."

Overall, "the rate of glacier retreat has accelerated since about 2000," Stock said. "Eventually, there'll be nothing left."

That's already happened at least once in Yosemite, geologists say. Black Mountain Glacier, which Muir discovered, surveyed and declared "living" in 1871, was gone by the mid-1980s.

louis.sahagun@latimes.com


Copyright 2013, Los Angeles Times
Wade Icey

Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
Dec 12, 2013 - 01:49pm PT
does anything 'work' in these discussion groups?
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Dec 12, 2013 - 02:43pm PT




Hmmm.....








95% certainty that my weapons would have fired or that my Helo would operate correctly would have gotten me fired on the spot and/or dead.
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Dec 12, 2013 - 02:56pm PT
chuff do you construct sentences?

or do you mangle them?
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 12, 2013 - 03:04pm PT
" This lack of precise knowledge of surface energy fluxes profoundly affects our ability to understand how Earths climate responds to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases". -Graeme Stephans et al 2012.
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
U.N. Ambassador, Crackistan
Dec 12, 2013 - 03:08pm PT
This lack of precise knowledge of surface energy fluxes

Lol.

Get one of these bro, it will filter out all those mysterious surface energy fluxes.


DMT
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Dec 12, 2013 - 03:33pm PT
DMT: Get one of these bro, it will filter out all those mysterious surface energy fluxes.


And of course it comes highly recommended from an individual (DMT) that has utilized one now for several years....

Thanks for the tip DMT.



Oh yeah, here's a fine example of 95% Certainty in the Real World...

Air strike kills 15 civilians in Yemen by mistake
http://news.yahoo.com/air-strike-kills-15-civilians-yemen-mistake-officials-183746885.html


But then you coddled cubicle boys and girls wouldn't have the foggiest....
FRUMY

Trad climber
Bishop,CA
Dec 12, 2013 - 03:43pm PT
Donini, don't you no nothing.The earth is flat & about 4,000 years old & nothing has ever changed it's always been just like this.

If it wasn't flat you'd fall off.

O and everyone still rides the original bike, harley. cause there just the fastest thing on the planet.lol
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Dec 12, 2013 - 03:45pm PT
your sentence structure improved dramatically there Chuff....

Congratulations! here is a gold star for you
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Relic MilkEye and grandpoobah of HBRKRNH
Dec 12, 2013 - 04:07pm PT
Ol JohnnyRig just stopped by with a report from the NE quadrant of the great basin, where during his elk hunt, a jug of 20 below zero antifreeze froze solid over night. In the great basin temps have been low all year.. A week and a half of hot summer temps was all that was seen..And the earliest ice up of lakes and creeks remembered in quite some time.

Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Dec 12, 2013 - 04:13pm PT
Ron, perhaps you should be posting on the "Weather Change Skeptics" thread.
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Relic MilkEye and grandpoobah of HBRKRNH
Dec 12, 2013 - 04:14pm PT
the title is GLOBUL warming. And THIS part of the "globe" "aint warmin"...
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