Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Sep 14, 2014 - 08:08pm PT
You sure of that,aye?
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Sep 14, 2014 - 08:15pm PT
Wade Icey

Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
Sep 14, 2014 - 09:35pm PT
Credit: Wade Icey
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Sep 15, 2014 - 07:30am PT
Yippee, I'm back to being MONO/JAMMER.


monolith

climber
SF bay area
Sep 15, 2014 - 07:37am PT
^^Chief, thanks for showing the 'pause' increased long term warming^^

Don't ya trust Spencer and Christy from UAH, Chief?

They are fellow 'skeptics', right?
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Sep 15, 2014 - 11:56am PT
"Nothing like the 15 plus year PAUSE ...
The C02 is climbing and temps are staying put."

As I already posted, recent surface temperatures are not a good indicator of the long term trend. That UCAR hindcast modeling validates that the pause in surface temperatures is temporary. "Almost all of the heat trapped by additional greenhouse gases during this period has been shown to be going into the deeper layers of the world’s oceans." http://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/just-published/12313/progress-decadal-climate-prediction

Better indicators of global warming are:
Accelerating rate of sea level increase
Accelerating rate of ice melting
Rising ocean temperature measurements (where the heat is going).

For the surface temperature "pause" to be a valid indicator of a long term trend, you would need to show how the planet's heat flow is now in balance. You can't do that. Because it isn't in balance. Go back roughly 100-150 years to when it was very roughly in balance (normal variation not due to manmade CO2). Now calculate how much we have affected the greenhouse effect since then, and how much more we will affect it as we continue to pump out GHGs.
You would need to show that some new forcing have occurred since 1998 that have stopped the heat imbalance.
Again, there is no significant long term trend in those forcings that has stopped.
Or you can show that there is a heat sink in the deep ocean capable of holding 35 E22 joules without ever affecting surface temps.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/09/what-ocean-heating-reveals-about-global-warming/

Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Sep 15, 2014 - 12:29pm PT
>>As I already posted, recent surface temperatures are not a good indicator of the long term trend.

"What is the "long term trend"... 30 something years?"

I don't know, I'm sure it has surprised many scientists already. Show me a peer-reviewed model or theory that shows that the "pause" isn't temporary.

>>For the surface temperature "pause" to be a valid indicator of a long term trend, you would need to show how the planet's heat flow is now in balance. You can't do that. Because it isn't in balance. Go back roughly 100-150 years to when it was very roughly in balance (normal variation not due to manmade CO2)

"Balance? So the definition of "balance" is anything prior to the Industrial Revolution. Correct? And who may I add stipulated that definition? "

I wrote that clearly indicating the point is to differentiate between limited natural trends and manmade trends.


"BTW: The above reference Splater, comes from a "blog" post that a year old and even the refs defined in it are older."

Is F=MA now invalid because that theory is now over a year old?
Is V=at or e=mc**2 now invalid ?
Are all websites equally valid? (comparing realclimate to WUWT)

Clue: Nothing in the last year has changed the point that most of the warming has gone into the oceans. In fact that is always true. As was already explained, 93% of the added heat goes to the oceans. 2% atmosphere, 2% continents, 2% ice melting.
The atmosphere doesn't have much heat capacity, and is not the best indicator of climate change at this point.

Clue #2:
The messenger is not the message.

Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Sep 15, 2014 - 03:23pm PT
>>Show me a peer-reviewed model or theory that shows that the "pause" isn't temporary

>>Nothing in the last year has changed the point that most of the warming has gone into the oceans.

Post up any peer rev'd study that indicates that is the first time in the history of planet earth that has occurred and is NOT a normal process within the climate system.

I am talking about how the ocean could continue to heat WITHOUT affecting surface temperatures. Is there a valid model that allows ocean temperature to continue to rise without affecting surface temps?

Only recently have humans had the capability to massively change the atmosphere and the greenhouse effect. Is fossil fuel burning to get to 400 and later --> 500 ppm natural? If the temperature was 6 degrees hotter at some time in the past, is that a reason for a manmade efforts to continue to move towards that same temperature?

Just because humans 200 years ago did not really affect global climate is not a reason they can't affect it today. There are no good examples from the past that work well for the present. Maybe if you go back far enough to where volcanoes were so active that CO2 was higher than today. Even 500 years ago, much less 1 million, if the climate changed significantly, there were plenty of open spaces and humans were more used to uprooting their homes and moving somewhere else. That is not the same process today with X billion people and huge cities and infrastructure.
TGT

Social climber
So Cal
Sep 15, 2014 - 03:26pm PT
http://nypost.com/2014/09/14/leo-v-science-vanishing-evidence-for-climate-change/

Oregon-based physicist Gordon Fulks sums it up well: “CO2 is said to be responsible for global warming that is not occurring, for accelerated sea-level rise that is not occurring, for net glacial and sea ice melt that is not occurring . . . and for increasing extreme weather that is not occurring.”

Consider:
• According to NASA satellites and all ground-based temperature measurements, global warming ceased in the late 1990s. This when CO2 levels have risen almost 10 percent since 1997. The post-1997 CO2 emissions represent an astonishing 30 percent of all human-related emissions since the Industrial Revolution began. That we’ve seen no warming contradicts all CO2-based climate models upon which global-warming concerns are founded.
•Rates of sea-level rise remain small and are even slowing, over recent decades averaging about 1 millimeter per year as measured by tide gauges and 2 to 3 mm/year as inferred from “adjusted” satellite data. Again, this is far less than what the alarmists suggested.
• Satellites also show that a greater area of Antarctic sea ice exists now than any time since space-based measurements began in 1979. In other words, the ice caps aren’t melting.
• A 2012 IPCC report concluded that there has been no significant increase in either the frequency or intensity of extreme weather events in the modern era. The NIPCC 2013 report concluded the same. Yes, Hurricane Sandy was devastating — but it’s not part of any new trend.

The climate scare, Fulks sighs, has “become a sort of societal pathogen that virulently spreads misinformation in tiny packages like a virus.”

bobinc

Trad climber
Portland, Or
Sep 15, 2014 - 03:28pm PT
Fulks has worked hard to maintain his crank bona fides here in Oregon...
HighTraverse

Trad climber
Bay Area
Sep 15, 2014 - 03:29pm PT
since when is the NY Post a source of verifiable news?
Norton

Social climber
quitcherbellyachin
Sep 15, 2014 - 03:35pm PT
RECORD AUGUST HEAT

This past August was the warmest since records began in 1881, according to new data released by NASA. The latest readings continue a series of record or near-record breaking months. May of this year was also the warmest in recorded history.

Dr. Gavin Schmidt, a climatologist and climate modeler at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, told The Huffington Post that while the agency's data does indicate that this August was the hottest on record, the difference falls within a few hundredths of a degree compared with previous Augusts.

Schmidt cautioned against focusing on any one month or year, but instead on the fact that "the long-term trends are toward warming." A very hot August, he said, is just one piece of the data that "point[s] towards the long-term trends.
hp
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Sep 15, 2014 - 04:12pm PT
Direct from Goddard Institute of Space Sciences.

Hottest August.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

monolith

climber
SF bay area
Sep 15, 2014 - 04:17pm PT
LOL! It's hilarious how you can discern temp from those pics.

Why don't you go whine on Steven Goddard's site.

He also thinks it's a big conspiracy.
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Sep 15, 2014 - 04:23pm PT
No, irony, idiot.

Each agency uses it's own homogenizing algorithms. They are a good check on each other.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Sep 15, 2014 - 04:29pm PT
Gordon Fulks sums it up well: “CO2 is said to be responsible for global warming that is not occurring, for accelerated sea-level rise that is not occurring, for net glacial and sea ice melt that is not occurring . . . and for increasing extreme weather that is not occurring.”

WRONG

"Consider:
• According to NASA satellites and all ground-based temperature measurements, global warming ceased in the late 1990s. This when CO2 levels have risen almost 10 percent since 1997. The post-1997 CO2 emissions represent an astonishing 30 percent of all human-related emissions since the Industrial Revolution began. That we’ve seen no warming contradicts all CO2-based climate models upon which global-warming concerns are founded."

WRONG, WHERE is Fulks model that disproves the common theory that the excess heat is going into the oceans?

"•Rates of sea-level rise remain small and are even slowing, over recent decades averaging about 1 millimeter per year as measured by tide gauges and 2 to 3 mm/year as inferred from “adjusted” satellite data. Again, this is far less than what the alarmists suggested."

WRONG. Sea level rise is Accelerating.

• Satellites also show that a greater area of Antarctic sea ice exists now than any time since space-based measurements began in 1979. In other words, the ice caps aren’t melting.

WRONG
the Arctic and Greenland show the most obvious ice change, as you would expect looking at any climate map where you see it is the north that is heating the most.
Antarctica is more of a special case. Volume does not equal area, so in the Antarctic, it is likely that decreasing volume can lead to more icebergs, so you have melting at the same time ice extent can increase a little.
Global Ice Extent and Total : are both DECREASING

"• A 2012 IPCC report concluded that there has been no significant increase in either the frequency or intensity of extreme weather events in the modern era. The NIPCC 2013 report concluded the same. Yes, Hurricane Sandy was devastating — but it’s not part of any new trend."

WE DON'T yet know what will be the new trend. Past performance is not indicative of the future. The predictions are still that hotter weather and SST will drive more weather events in the FUTURE.

"The climate scare, Fulks sighs, has “become a sort of societal pathogen that virulently spreads misinformation in tiny packages like a virus.”"

WRONG,
DENIALISTS are the ones who make a career of Misinformation.
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Sep 15, 2014 - 04:34pm PT
No conspiracy.

More like "manipulated/tweeked".

LOL!
guyman

Social climber
Moorpark, CA.
Sep 15, 2014 - 04:36pm PT
OK, I change my mind..... it's hotter than I can ever recall at Stoney right now.

So this January when the price of gas goes up .15/gal, I will thank Gov Schanegger for starting us all on the true path to clean air, healthy life and a brighter future for all of the living creatures on the planet.

Thanks Gov....

we don't miss you.
Norton

Social climber
quitcherbellyachin
Sep 15, 2014 - 04:50pm PT
a source, chief?

sure,

http://www.weather.com/news/science/environment/august-2014-hottest-history-20140915

you could have done that yourself in a half a second search, chief
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Sep 15, 2014 - 06:51pm PT
Ya got a touch of heat stroke Brucie. Crawl back Into your bottle for refuge from the end of the world . I don't know what will get you first; a slow roast in the coming Venutian hell, or frostbite and asphixiation under the advancing glaciers, but surely the end is near because the "industry professional authorities" told you so as they pick your pockets.

Long live The Chief! He is a brilliant and relentness warrior for the truth.

Great post TGT. Short, sweet, highly accurate summation of the state of climate hysteria afflicting our criminal AGW industry/government complex and the dim wits that actually eat this shet up.
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