Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
Nov 14, 2013 - 08:05am PT
It is something that when you go to PAGASA'S website and search for press release's ,or anything about the haiyan typhoon,nothing will show up .

Conversely if you go to WUWT's website you will find Sketch's info.

Really.
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph


then
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/11/13/deconstructing-the-hype-on-super-typhoon-haiyan-y

well
http://www.nbcnews.com/science/nasa-keeps-eye-ferocious-super-typhoon-haiyan-space-8C


Just as Chiloe had said upthread.
Sketch

Trad climber
Langley, VA
Nov 14, 2013 - 08:58am PT
It is something that when you go to PAGASA'S website and search for press release's ,or anything about the haiyan typhoon,nothing will show up .

Conversely if you go to WUWT's website you will find Sketch's info.

The piece I quoted came from the Wall Street Journal. I don't think it's available on the WUWT website.

I'm guessing guessing the initial assessments of this storm being "the most powerful storm ever recorded on earth" will be disproven, much like Boulder's 1000 year flood. However, most people will only remember the early headlines.

Is it okay to let incorrect "facts" stand, if they help your cause?
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Nov 14, 2013 - 11:12am PT
The piece I quoted came from the Wall Street Journal.


Interesting... Who owns the WSJ nowadays anyway, and do you believe the paper is biased one way or the other?
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Relic MilkEye and grandpoobah of HBRKRNH
Nov 14, 2013 - 11:34am PT
Interesting to see the IPCC admit to mistakes on the latest climate change report.
raymond phule

climber
Nov 14, 2013 - 12:03pm PT
http://kidlat.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/cab/tc_frame.htm

Where did wall street journals get their data from?

Maximum sustained winds at 171 and peak gusts at 193 mph for Joan is less than the peak gust that can be found on my link above.

They also seems to have missed Reming.

Is it possibly that wall street journal is not a good scientific source?
wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
Nov 14, 2013 - 06:19pm PT
So tell me Sketch,what are "incorrect facts" anyway?
wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
Nov 14, 2013 - 06:31pm PT
http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/haiyan-northwestern-pacific-ocean/#.UoVc-RqsiSp
Malemute

Ice climber
the ghost
Nov 14, 2013 - 11:23pm PT
“One of the biggest problems with the world today is that we have large groups of people who will accept whatever they hear on the grapevine, just because it suits their worldview—not because it is actually true or because they have evidence to support it. The really striking thing is that it would not take much effort to establish validity in most of these cases… but people prefer reassurance to research.”
― Neil deGrasse Tyson
Malemute

Ice climber
the ghost
Nov 14, 2013 - 11:39pm PT
“There’s a fascinating frailty of the human mind that psychologists know all about, called “argument from ignorance.” This is how it goes. Remember what the “U” stands for in “UFO”? You see lights flashing in the sky. You’ve never seen anything like this before and don’t understand what it is. You say, “It’s a UFO!” The “U” stands for “unidentified.”
But then you say, “I don’t know what it is; it must be aliens from outer space, visiting from another planet.” The issue here is that if you don’t know what something is, your interpretation of it should stop immediately. You don’t then say it must be X or Y or Z. That’s argument from ignorance. It’s common. I’m not blaming anybody; it may relate to our burning need to manufacture answers because we feel uncomfortable about being steeped in ignorance.”
― Neil deGrasse Tyson, Space Chronicles: Facing the Ultimate Frontier
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Nov 15, 2013 - 12:08am PT
it may relate to our burning need to manufacture answers because we feel uncomfortable about being steeped in ignorance.”

And the more ignorant, the more uncomfortable, and the more uncomfortable the more neurotic, and the more neurotic the more the manufacturing strays from any relationship with reality.

It is a viscous cycle, at the end of which you are likely to find just another run of the mill right winger.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Nov 15, 2013 - 12:30am PT
Well Ed im not reading any papers on my only current access to the internet, my cell phone. But I can tell you this much about the one percent variation claims I read of - an american scientist by the name of Abbot claimed, up to the 1960's , a one percent varistion over centennial time scales
A group of russian scientists in the 1970's claimed to have measured variations of up to two percent. Another american scientist , I think by the name of Reid, claimed varitions of up to .6 percent. There is still much to learn about old Sol, much research is ongoing. What is clear is that we would have no climate to argue over were it not for the sun. A lot of astrophysicists are predicting a solar grand minimum starting with the beginning of cycle 24 in 2009 and gathering steam over the next few cycles. Some of these scientists are expecting it to completely overwhelm the feeble anthropogenic signal. Maybe it will, maybe it won't, but we are about to learn much, including direct measurements of just what is the range of variability between a grand max and grand min.Should be exciting and perhaps shocking times in climate science.
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Nov 15, 2013 - 03:08pm PT
Why yes, there's still more:

The reason all these statements are backwards is that attributing particular weather events to climate change is ridiculously easy: Every weather event in the modern world is attributable to climate change. This is because weather is a chaotic system, which is to say it varies wildly based on initial conditions. Once we raised global temperature by a degree Celsius–which is an enormous intervention in the physical world–we irrevocably changed all weather, producing an entirely different set of events than the ones that would have otherwise occurred.

So climate change caused Typhoon Haiyan–in the sense that Haiyan would not have happened in the absence of climate change. Note that this is the most basic and obvious meaning of the word "cause."


From: Attributing Weather Events to Climate Change Is the Easy Part
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Relic MilkEye and grandpoobah of HBRKRNH
Nov 15, 2013 - 03:16pm PT
"slightly"?? More like grossly..

Wonder how we as humans ever lived from the neanderthal to now.
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Nov 15, 2013 - 03:36pm PT
And when adaption is rapid, you know for sure that some are not going to be getting on the train. Its not hard to figure out who either. My guess is that Taxidermy in Nevada will not be a good career choice for your kids Ron.
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Nov 15, 2013 - 08:29pm PT
That's a slightly disingenuous argument, K-man.


Hmmm, is it? I suppose it depends on the truth of the premise, that a raise in the global mean temperature by 1 degree C is enough of a change to disrupt the world's weather patterns. If true, then I believe the argument is valid.

If a 1 degree changes is not "an enormous intervention in the physical world", and not enough to impact the Earth's weather patterns, then yes, the whole idea is mush.

I'm of the idea that a 1 degree change is enough to impact weather patterns. Would hurricane Sandy have happened if the world's temp did not increase? Could the air hold that much water without it being the temp is was?
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Nov 17, 2013 - 01:08pm PT



Former Irish president Mary Robinson gets tough on climate change
Sunday, November 17, 2013 | Categories: Episodes , Features 2

It's that time of year again. The latest United Nations conference on climate change opened in Warsaw last Monday, and will run until Friday.

The last few climate conferences have pretty much been a bust, and expectations are even lower than usual for this one. World leaders are already backing away from the 2015 target for a global climate treaty that they've been promising for several years now. Although they're still expected to affirm their unshakeable commitment to fighting climate change ... eventually.

Solutions to climate change already exist or have been proposed. But so far, no solution has been found for a global lack of political will. And with every discovery of a new oil or gas field, that will is sapped even further.

It's a situation Mary Robinson finds profoundly worrying, and she has a blunt and rather inconvenient message for global leaders and fossil fuel-producing countries like Canada: If you're serious about preventing the worst of climate change, you have to leave that oil and gas in the ground.

Mary Robinson was the president of Ireland from 1990 to 1997, and the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights from 1997 to 2002. She's one of the world's most respected former heads of state.

She now runs The Mary Robinson Foundation - Climate Justice.

http://www.cbc.ca/thesundayedition/shows/2013/11/17/mary-robinson/



By the way, anyone interested in understanding how Rick Sumners rationalizes himself should just google Rob Ford Toronto Mayor..... followed by Wiki Dunning Kruger effect.








Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Nov 17, 2013 - 01:46pm PT
Further to that, here is a little something to consider ( spoiler alert: COMMUNIST PLOT!!!) which may go in one ear and out the other for certain delusional dingbats that require certainty....


http://tedxtalks.ted.com/video/Risk-The-Anatomy-of-Chance-and
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Nov 18, 2013 - 11:42pm PT
I find the last sentence, " We wouldn't have a habitable climate if it weren't for the CO2", of Ed's last post quite encouraging. Are you acknowledging that we live amid a prolonged glacial era, only temporarily relieved by naturally increasing CO2 levels as a result of the warming effects of long periods of increased TSI, estimated to be up to one percent variable from the likes of solar grand minimums like the Maunder and Dalton to the modern grand maximum, and little understood amplifying effects like GCR cloud nucleation, 6-8 % UV radiation variations, and variations in solar magnetism and solar wind-eh Ed? If so you are really coming along.
Malemute

Ice climber
the ghost
Nov 18, 2013 - 11:51pm PT
Rick can't help it; he's got 64K, is running at 5 Mhz, & just has a floppy dik.
Sketch

Trad climber
Langley, VA
Nov 20, 2013 - 04:20pm PT
All I'm saying is a survey asking about the level/degree of man's contribution to recent warming would shed some light on where the scientific community stands. Some warming? Most warming? Nearly all of the warming? Who knows?

Here's a survey (limited to American Meteorological Society members) that addresses my concerns.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00091.1

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00091.1
(scroll to bottom for results)

It's a simple straightforward survey, asking (among other things) if AMS members believe humans have caused most of the recent global warming. For the entire group, 52% answered yes. For the two most qualified groups, 78% and 73% answered yes.

I'm sure this survey will get thoroughly dissected before it's all over.

It'll be interesting to see how this plays out.
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