Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Aug 14, 2014 - 09:12pm PT
Credit: Ed Hartouni

here is the average


is this a good description of the data?
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Aug 14, 2014 - 09:20pm PT
why do you say it is very good?

and what trend do you want to plot?
linear, logarithmic, polynomial (and the order), power, exponential, moving average,... ?

and why?

[edit]
why a linear trend?

what is the meaning of a linear trend, The Chief?

if you project your trend back in time, will it agree with the earlier temperature anomaly?

(none of those plots use the NOAA data, would you please use that data, I gave you a link to it upthread).
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Aug 14, 2014 - 09:24pm PT
As we all know ,the period you are requesting Chief , using Ed's above data points would differ markedly from the german bloggers illustration ( or NOAA if you accept Larry's word in lieu of citation) presented by Larry yesterday. It would show a steep dive from the preceeding five year period. This would strongly indicate the temp anomaly spike produced subsequent to the 98 super El Nino was just a temporary weather change not in accord with the monotonous rise projected by the totality of the IPCC sanctioned GCM's. What Ed presented in his three plots is as good as it gets from him, unless of course he plots back to the thirties using raw unaltered data. This would show a much stronger cooling trend than the near zero anomaly of the red line plot.


Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Aug 14, 2014 - 09:26pm PT
I'm not avoiding anything, The Chief,

I am asking you some questions before supplying the plots...

please indicate why you would use a linear plot, what does it mean? linear trend?
what does it tell you about the climate?


I thought we were talking about the NOAA data, would you please use that data.
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Aug 14, 2014 - 09:38pm PT
Arguing With Your Crazy Uncle About Climate Change
http://davidbrin.blogspot.ca/2011/10/arguing-with-your-crazy-uncle-about.html


Defining Climate "Deniers" and "Skeptics"
By David Brin, Ph.D.
http://www.davidbrin.com/climatechange2.html

The Real Struggle Behind Climate Change - A War on Expertise
http://open.salon.com/blog/david_brin/2010/02/09/the_real_struggle_behind_climate_change_-_a_war_on_expertise
blahblah

Gym climber
Boulder
Aug 14, 2014 - 09:41pm PT
I hate to take sides on the details of this and I always have to add the caveat that perhaps Ed's got yet another "trick" up his sleeve, but . . .
looks like The Chief's got Ed pinned down on this one.
(Ed has, I must say, done an admirable job of attempting to "hide the decline" as they like to say in warmist circles! He's got a near bottomless bag of tricks of semantic obfuscation, multiple data sets, appeals to (unnecessary) complex math, etc. But it's kind of like the famous scene in the Wizard of Oz--sometimes when you're caught, you're caught!)
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Aug 14, 2014 - 09:45pm PT
Credit: Ed Hartouni

here you go, The Chief, the green line is your 9 year trend from 2005 to 2013...

that linear trend doesn't tell us anything about the climate, it just tells us the average rate of the temperature anomaly change over that time period.

If we took your assertion seriously, that it predicts the future, then we would expect that it would agree with the past, too.

As you can see, it doesn't.

However, what about those green filled black circles? they seem to do a much better job...

that is a plot of the climate models, an average over all the model runs... which does a considerably better job then your linear trend...

here it is for that shorter period of time
Credit: Ed Hartouni


these models are quite complex including the CO2 increases, the various physical phenomena related to the climate, including the solar variations, ENSO, and all that... basically everything we understand about the climate.

looks like they do a considerably better job than a linear trend on 9 years worth of data.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Aug 14, 2014 - 09:54pm PT
you model doesn't work, The Chief...

it is in very bad agreement in the past... it isn't at all reasonable. How do you explain that your model says the anomaly should have been +3F in 1980 when it was observed to be around 0F?
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Aug 14, 2014 - 09:56pm PT
the model of a linear trend in the temperature anomaly...

that is your model.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Aug 14, 2014 - 10:06pm PT
I see your plot

and if I understand your argument, you are saying that you can predict what the future temperature anomaly is going to be by assuming that the linear trend correctly calculates it into the future.

Your model is that the rate of change of the temperature anomaly is constant, and set by the temperature anomalies from the year 2005 to 2013.

However, if we take your model seriously, we should also be able to calculate what the past temperature anomaly was, which I have done for you here

Credit: Ed Hartouni

when we calculate the temperature anomaly 20 years ago, we see that your linear model badly disagrees with the data...

why would you expect it to predict the next 20 years?
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Aug 14, 2014 - 10:07pm PT
8. I don't care, I hate science:

Yep, that is the fall-back refrain. Hatred of people who know stuff. Not just science, but also teachers, diplomats, journalists, lawyers, professors, medical doctors, civil servants, skilled union labor... you name a caste of knowledge and professional intellect -- of knowing stuff - and it's under attack. Most vigorously by the foxed right (making Barry Goldwater and William F. Buckley spin in their graves) but also by the loony far-left.

Pragmatic-moderate problem solving and negotiation were great American virtues. Culture War is betrayal. Treason. And the chief purpose of denialism.

ClimateSkepticsAgain. Scientists aren't being dissed in order to detract from the theory of climate change. Climate change denialism is being pushed in order to help know-nothing-ism win the War on Science. If our generation fails this test - if you refuse to do your part by rescuing some salvageable conservative, luring him or her back to the version of conservatism professed by real men like Buckley - then welcome to the Dark Ages.

http://davidbrin.blogspot.ca/2011/10/arguing-with-your-crazy-uncle-about.html
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Aug 14, 2014 - 10:30pm PT
Just observing . I can't add anything to what Ed already revealed with his three plot presentation. Like I said: thats as good as it gets.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Aug 14, 2014 - 10:39pm PT
you are predicting the next 20 years, but you have no evidence that the way you are predicting it has anything to do with reality...

in fact, your prediction method is shown to be in disagreement with the data, the temperature anomaly in 1980 was not +3F, had it been, you would have predicted our current temperature anomaly correctly. But you didn't, and you couldn't... had your model any predictive capability, the anomaly today, given the observed value in 1980, would be -3F, which it is not.

The point is, your implied model, the linear trend in the recent temperature, doesn't have anything at all to do with the behavior of the climate.

The climate models, on the other hand, do a good job reproducing the anomaly since 1896 based on our fundamental understanding of the climate. Those models make a much better case for predicting the future than your linear model of temperature anomaly.

In fact, your model only predicts the temperature anomaly, the climate models predict the entire observed climate... of which the surface temperature anomaly is only one part.

You cannot seriously assert that your model has anything at all to do with reality. It does not.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Aug 14, 2014 - 10:59pm PT
if you believe in magic, The Chief, then anything can happen...


your "if" isn't supported by anything but magic (I'd call it magical thinking, but thinking has nothing to do with it).

your "if" is totally made up, and doesn't have anything to do with the past. How is it that suddenly, it has anything to do with the future?

Credit: Ed Hartouni
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Aug 14, 2014 - 11:17pm PT
What the hell else do the models accurately predict Ed. Perhaps the mid tropospheric hotspot, an increase in relative humidity, more frequent and severe weather, increased antarctic sea ice now at the point that its extent has raised global coverage to record levels? No the heart of the hype coming from the model projections was a monotonous, unrelenting linear rise Iin global average temps in response to increased CO2 and the imagined amplifying feedbacks. Exactly equal to the projection of a linear decrease of temps you are now ridiculing. Seems to me your between a rock and a hard place with this argument.







Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Aug 14, 2014 - 11:18pm PT
gee The Chief, it only goes back 120 years... your's doesn't go back 5 years...

raymond phule

climber
Aug 14, 2014 - 11:26pm PT
blahblah, I see that you more or less agreed with my understanding of your "argument". I don't really understand though why you wrote a long post to make it more clear.

1. You have read that science are not perfect. Especially that same part of some other areas of science have some problems, psychology, clinical statistical studies for example.
2. You don't believe in the conclusions from climate science.

So you conclude that climate science is in your words a "science" that should not be trusted.
raymond phule

climber
Aug 14, 2014 - 11:43pm PT

(or NOAA if you accept Larry's word in lieu of citation)

What an idiot.

"http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/national-temperature-index/images/nClimDiv_USCRN-AnnualDeps.png"

Copy that link from noaa and look at the figure. Does it look familiar?

It could be a good thing to learn how to find out the URL for pictures posted on the internet before starting with the insults and stuff that show your ignorance.

You can ask the chief how he did it. Even he knows that the graph were from noaa.
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Aug 15, 2014 - 06:56am PT
New research links tornado strength, frequency to climate change
http://news.fsu.edu/More-FSU-News/New-research-links-tornado-strength-frequency-to-climate-change
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Aug 15, 2014 - 07:17am PT
Humans the biggest force driving glacier meltdown, new study says
http://www.theprovince.com/news/Humans+biggest+force+driving+glacier+meltdown+study+says/10118297/story.html

"Every year we drive stakes five metres deep into the glacier in the fall. We have to return and re-drill them in mid-summer because a lot of those stakes on the Athabasca Glacier, the one that a lot of people go visit, will be lying flat on the ice at that time.

"We're losing at least five metres a year on the surface of that glacier."
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/athabasca-glacier-could-disappear-within-generation-says-manager-1.2653641
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