Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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raymond phule

climber
Oct 3, 2013 - 02:36pm PT
????? mars to aug is not winter in Antartica?
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Oct 3, 2013 - 02:39pm PT
MARCH THROUGH APRIL.


Typo...


WILLY FIELD normally shuts down from the 2nd week of March through the end of April sometimes into May due the sea ice melting out and not returning till June sometime.

Back in '81 the end/threshold of WLLY 4 melted out the end of FEB. Willy 5 was established earlier that season.
raymond phule

climber
Oct 3, 2013 - 02:42pm PT
So the 80m thick ice just usually just disappear or something?
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Oct 3, 2013 - 02:43pm PT
Willy Field has moved 14 times since it came to be and established back in the 50's.
raymond phule

climber
Oct 3, 2013 - 02:48pm PT

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Williams_Field

I guess that that information is completely wrong?

Do you know that you just make up stuff or do you manage to delude yourself?
raymond phule

climber
Oct 3, 2013 - 02:55pm PT
Yes, it has moved because the ice move. Not because it melt and disappear.

Interesting but sad to see how you google like crazy to try to make your first ridiculous statement true.

You probably forgot that mars was in the summer in antartica so you tried to make a point that extra thick ice was necessary to be able to hold a winter open airport open a month longer.

But you have never been wrong in your whole life so you continue digging the hole deeper and deeper to not have to admit your error.
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Oct 3, 2013 - 02:57pm PT
Bharata

Mountain climber
Pune
Oct 3, 2013 - 03:12pm PT
You choose to believe that humans are changing the Earth's climate
you also likely to fall for conspiracy theories,
flying saucers, bigfoot, and she really does get headache
just before bedtime.
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Oct 3, 2013 - 03:18pm PT
LOL, it's the deniers who accuse the climate scientists and governments of being in a conspiracy.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Oct 3, 2013 - 03:32pm PT
You choose to believe that humans are changing the Earth's climate
you also likely to fall for conspiracy theories


Like many other ideologue declarations, that's the opposite of the truth. Conspiracy theories are the heart and soul of every denialist website. Including, conspiracy theories denouncing a paper that pointed them out.

NASA Faked the Moon Landing—Therefore, (Climate) Science Is a Hoax. An Anatomy of the Motivated Rejection of Science
Stephan Lewandowsky
Klaus Oberauer
Gilles E. Gignac

Abstract

Although nearly all domain experts agree that carbon dioxide emissions are altering the world’s climate, segments of the public remain unconvinced by the scientific evidence. Internet blogs have become a platform for denial of climate change, and bloggers have taken a prominent role in questioning climate science. We report a survey of climate-blog visitors to identify the variables underlying acceptance and rejection of climate science. Our findings parallel those of previous work and show that endorsement of free-market economics predicted rejection of climate science. Endorsement of free markets also predicted the rejection of other established scientific findings, such as the facts that HIV causes AIDS and that smoking causes lung cancer. We additionally show that, above and beyond endorsement of free markets, endorsement of a cluster of conspiracy theories (e.g., that the Federal Bureau of Investigation killed Martin Luther King, Jr.) predicted rejection of climate science as well as other scientific findings. Our results provide empirical support for previous suggestions that conspiratorial thinking contributes to the rejection of science. Acceptance of science, by contrast, was strongly associated with the perception of a consensus among scientists.

Psychological Science (2012)
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Oct 3, 2013 - 03:48pm PT
Or this, from a newer paper by the same authors (different data) in PLOS One:

Free-market worldviews are an important predictor of the rejection of scientific findings that have potential regulatory implications, such as climate science, but not necessarily of other scientific issues. Conspiracist ideation, by contrast, is associated with the rejection of all scientific propositions tested. We highlight the manifold cognitive reasons why conspiracist ideation would stand in opposition to the scientific method. The involvement of conspiracist ideation in the rejection of science has implications for science communicators.
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Oct 3, 2013 - 04:39pm PT
Hey PHOOOOLE, did you look at the refs for your info on WIKI regarding Willy Field??

The extraordinary conditions encountered at Williams Field include the fact that the airfield is in a continuous slow slide towards the sea. Seaward movement of the floating McMurdo Ice Shelf upon which the airfield is constructed has forced Williams Field to be relocated three times since its original construction. Workers last moved the airfield during the 1984-85 season.[6] Subsequently, personnel housed at Williams lived in buildings constructed on sleds to facilitate relocation. In the past, up to 450 people were housed at the airfield, according to the National Science Foundation. In 1994 the National Science Foundation constructed two dorm buildings at McMurdo Station and began transporting personnel to Williams Field using various vehicles including Foremost Delta II and Ford E-350 vans.[citation needed]

[6]^ Berthing at McMurdo for Williams Field, Office of Polar Programs; National Science Foundation. August 19, 1993.

Williams Field or Willy Field (ICAO: NZWD) is a United States Antarctic Program airfield in Antarctica. Williams Field consists of two snow runways located on approximately 8 meters (25 ft) of compacted snow, lying on top of 80 meters (262 ft) of ice, floating over 550 meters (1,800 ft) of water.[3] The airport, which is approximately seven miles from Ross Island, serves McMurdo Station and New Zealand’s Scott Base. Until the 2009-10 summer season, Williams was the major airfield for on-continent aircraft operations in Antarctica.

[3]^ Antarctic Photo Library, U.S. Antarctic Program; National Science Foundation.

" lying on top of 80 meters (262 ft) of ice, floating over 550 meters (1,800 ft) of water,"

That is impossible as Mac Station is only 61 feet above sea level and the ICE ROAD that goes to WILLY FIELD is only 10-15' thick at the most in early season coming outta MAC TOWN to Willy Field. It is built every season around AUG.

It thaws out completely by Jan and a new road is plowed from Scott Base in late Dec.




That entire WIKI page on Willy Field is soooooo out dated and contains minimal info it is beyond belief. The most recent "Historical" ref regarding the Field Proper is dated 20 something years ago.

All the huts on the field are on sleds and are moved every season. It is built on the perm floating Sea Ice.


Picture below show Willy Field with MAC TOWN in the background.


Here's a shot of the Ice Road heading down from the Helo Hangar to Willy Field which is in the distance.



And Willy Field from Mac Town....




Bottom line, yeah the WIKI page is totally inaccurate at best.
raymond phule

climber
Oct 3, 2013 - 04:45pm PT
I guess you need to continue to google. Strange that you obviously do not have any source at all that agrees with your claims.

raymond phule

climber
Oct 3, 2013 - 04:52pm PT
Maybe I should help you a little. Willy field is seven miles from shore and not directly on the ice so your pics shows something else.

I guess that your gibberish is about the ice runway that usually close at the beginning of december but that is of course incoherent to all your claims above.

So do you have a source that the ice runway was open the whole season until march this year?

Willy field and pegasus seems to be able to operate all year round but is usually not operated in the dark.
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Oct 3, 2013 - 05:00pm PT
Not strange atal. I was there and flew for five seasons. 79-84. But then what does that matter. Right.


SO EDH, 30 years of data constitutes the law and regulates the NORM.


I have yet to see any of you show any period longer than 50 years of ice data for the Arctic in which you can viably claim any kind of "Normal" trend prior to 1950.

You can't as it is NOT available.

In the Atlantic–European sector (Greenland and Barents seas), the sea-ice extents from 1900 to the late 1950s are known only from spring and summer (April to August). It has not previously been possible to gain understanding about the annual ice cover variability in these decades. An attempt has been made to obtain these missing mean annual data. Towards this end, the actual year-round data on the ice extent from 1959–1988 were used to derive an equation to calculate the annual average ice extent in the region.
Arctic climate change: observed and modelled
temperature and sea-ice variability
By OLA M. JOHANNESSEN1,2∗, LENNART BENGTSSON3,4,1, MARTIN W. MILES5,6,
SVETLANA I . KUZMINA7, VLADIMIR A. SEMENOV3,8, GENRIKH V. ALEKSEEV9,
ANDREI P. NAGURNYI9, VICTOR F. ZAKHAROV9, LEONID P. BOBYLEV7, LASSE H.
PETTERSSON1, KLAUS HASSELMANN3 and HOWARD P. CATTLE10, 1Nansen Environmental
and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen, Norway; 2Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Norway; 3Max Planck
Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; 4Environmental Systems Science Centre, University of Reading, UK;
5Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway; 6Environmental Systems Analysis Research Center, Boulder,
Colorado, USA; 7Nansen International Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, St Petersburg, Russia; 8Obukhov
Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS, Moscow, Russia; 9Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, St Petersburg, Russia;
10Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Bracknell, UK
(Manuscript received 26 May 2003; in final form 15 December 2003)


Anything prior to 1900 is guessing at best. Nothing more. Thus there is no such thing as NORMAL.
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Oct 3, 2013 - 05:02pm PT
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Oct 3, 2013 - 05:03pm PT
What is the ref for the above.

And you gotta love where your Graph came from:

About EPI
Mission

The Earth Policy Institute (EPI) was founded in 2001 by Lester Brown, the founder and former president of the Worldwatch Institute, to provide a plan of a sustainable future along with a roadmap of how to get from here to there. EPI works at the global level simply because no country can fully implement a Plan B economy in isolation.

EPI’s goals are (1) to provide a global plan (Plan B) for moving the world onto an environmentally and economically sustainable path, (2) to provide examples demonstrating how the plan would work, and (3) to keep the media, policymakers, academics, environmentalists, and other decision-makers focused on the process of building a Plan B economy.
http://www.earth-policy.org/about_epi/

Proliferating the IDEOLOGY. Got it.
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Oct 3, 2013 - 05:07pm PT
Chief, do ya know how to read english?

The source is in the graph, idiot.
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Oct 3, 2013 - 05:17pm PT
Good old Lester Brown:

Until recently, discussion of geoengineering – intentional, large-scale manipulation of the Earth's climate – has been taboo among scientists. The pursuit is widely seen as not only a dangerous distraction from the serious business of figuring out how to cut emissions but also as borderline immoral. Lester Brown, one of the godfathers of the environmental movement and president of the Earth Policy Institute, sees geoengineering as "another step down the road of actively managing the planet - something we've already proven we're not terribly good at.

Regarding your graph MONO...

Here we use a network of high-resolution terrestrial proxies from the circ#m-Arctic region to reconstruct past extents of summer sea ice, and show that—although extensive uncertainties remain, especially before the sixteenth century—both the duration and magnitude of the current decline in sea ice seem to be unprecedented for the past 1,450 years.
Kinnard [2011]
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v479/n7374/full/nature10581.html

Because Arctic sea ice is influenced by both air and water temperatures, the study authors use a combination of Arctic ice core, tree-ring and lake sediments to reconstruct Arctic conditions over the last 2,000 years. As is often the case with these proxy reconstructions, the authors found the error bars in the reconstruction (the uncertainty) increased further back in time, due to a decreasing number of proxy records, and was not useful past 1,450 years ago.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/Arctic-sea-ice-hockey-stick-melt-unprecedented-in-last-1450-years.html


As the post above cites, they are guessing at best. The verbiage says so.

You guys are just plain pulling shet outta yur asses.

Nice...




FortMentäl

Social climber
Albuquerque, NM
Oct 3, 2013 - 05:30pm PT


The maximum Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (MaxNDVI) is a measure of vegetation greenness observed from space. It is also a proxy for aboveground biomass at the peak of the growing season. Shown here is the change it underwent from 1982 to 2011 and, with the same color bar, the change in total annual primary production—a measure of photosynthesis by algae and phytoplankton in units of grams of carbon per square meter per year—over the period 1998–2009 in the Arctic Ocean and adjacent waters.



The Greenland ice sheet and glaciers and ice caps in the Gulf of Alaska region and the high Canadian Arctic have been losing mass, by melting and iceberg calving, since GRACE satellite observations began more than 10 years ago. Mass loss, in gigatons, from the Greenland ice sheet is accelerating and is currently almost three times the combined total loss from the Alaskan and Canadian sources. The seasonal cycle of winter snow accumulation and summer melting is evident in the oscillations recorded from each region.
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