Discussion Topic |
|
This thread has been locked |
raymond phule
climber
|
|
|
Jul 18, 2014 - 08:23am PT
|
I believe that the clear decreasing trend is going to continue and that it is going to be a new record low in a few years. The variability is to large to be able to make a good prediction* in a single year but I guess that this years low is going to be in the lowest 3-4 years but it can obviously be a little higher than that. I would be very surprised though if the extent is larger than for the last 10 years.
*Good prediction in laymen terms. It is of course possibly to make a sound mathematical prediction based on the data but I believe that the variance for that prediction is to large for laymen to understands what it means.
|
|
rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
|
|
|
Jul 18, 2014 - 08:33am PT
|
Now, besides all the scientific gobbledy gook are you saying the extent will finish lower than anything in the last 3-4 years Raymond? You know ,of course, that would be a new all time low? What does the current strange solar activity mean Raymond, is it unprecedented or has activity plummeted before in the peak of activity?
|
|
raymond phule
climber
|
|
|
Jul 18, 2014 - 08:39am PT
|
No, I am not saying that. I believe that this year is going to be among the 3-4 lowest years.
I don't know anything about solar activity so I don't have any opinion about that.
|
|
rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
|
|
|
Jul 18, 2014 - 08:48am PT
|
Hell its not gambling when you have edjumacated guess work in your favor. So im in for five canucks for the highest extent for a decade and Raymond is in for five on three and five on four- thats lowest extent rather than highest, eh Raymond.
Where are the solar scientists? This erratic solar activity really has my curiosity up.
|
|
raymond phule
climber
|
|
|
Jul 18, 2014 - 08:58am PT
|
thats lowest extent rather than highest, eh Raymond.
?????
|
|
HighTraverse
Trad climber
Bay Area
|
|
|
Jul 18, 2014 - 07:43pm PT
|
Meanwhile in the Real World we're #13 out of 16
2014 energy efficiency scores
Country
National efforts
Buildings
Industry
Transportation
Total
Germany 17 17 18 13 65
Italy 19 13 15 17 64
European Union 19 16 15 13 63
China 15 19 13 14 61
France 19 16 12 14 61
Japan 17 13 12 15 57
United Kingdom 18 14 10 15 57
Spain 13 15 12 14 54
Canada 17 15 7 11 50
Australia 12 15 17 7 49
India 6 12 11 16 45
South Korea 10 12 12 10 44
United States 11 14 9 8 42
Russia 7 6 11 11 35
Brazil 4 10 2 14 30
Mexico 3 13 3 10 29 At least we're ahead of Russia, Brazil and Mexico. Thanks to the new conservative government who turned back their greenhouse emissions clock about 10 years this week, Australia might be racing us to the bottom.
Meanwhile those pesky persistent rational Germans take #1 for 2 years in a row
Ackermann added that Germany’s economy has managed to grow while increasing efficiency and reducing the negative environmental affects that come with the energy trade.
"We all agree, I think – the cheapest energy is the energy you don't have to produce in the first place," Ackermann said.
Italy came in second, with the help of its efficiency in transit, and the European Union as a whole came in third. China and France both tied for fourth, with Britain rounding out the top five.
Germany is the most energy efficient country in the world, according to a study published Friday, while China is rapidly improving its energy efficiency.
The study by the Washington, D.C.-based American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy ranked the world’s 16 major economies according to which countries had done the most to gain energy efficiency.
Germany took the top spot because of its mandatory codes requiring both residential and commercial buildings to reduce energy consumption by 20 percent, putting them at 2008 levels by 2020.
wait, the source of this article is Al Jazeera. So of course it's all nonsense.
http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/7/18/germany-most-energyefficient.html
|
|
Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
|
|
|
Jul 19, 2014 - 03:45am PT
|
Betting on Arctic sea ice ... How has that worked out?
Earlier this year, we analyzed a few hundred predictions. Here's the short version.
|
|
rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
|
|
|
Jul 19, 2014 - 09:53am PT
|
Yes professor Chiloe, speculation on the extent of this years arctic sea ice minimum , along with this years El Nino intensity, is probably the hottest topic in the climate war battles. More resources are in place to study it than ever before. Just to get you guys arguing im betting against my earlier guess of a lower minimum than 2013.
The real question in my mind, and my original speculation thousands of posts ago, is the pitiful lack of understanding in old Sol and the obvious fact " its the sun stupid", for without its effects we would have no climate to argue about. This current plummet from a high of activity to a brief quiet sun condition and its probable rapid rebound is highly unusual and seems beyond the bounds of current extent of solar scientific knowledge to explain.it seems old Sols secrets far outweigh its known quantities. Do you know of any solar scientists who are to attempting explaination of this erratic behavior?
|
|
rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
|
|
|
Jul 19, 2014 - 11:39am PT
|
Yeah, cloud condensation nuclei seems to have increased here today. Whether it is in response to Svensmark's theory of cosmic ray effect is undetermined. I find it odd there isn't more discussion of this erratic activity on the internet. The plumbing contractor says water, whether it comes from the tap, from the skies, or god forbid your ceiling, is one of lifes biggest blessings or curse dependent upon source and quantity. The damp proofer stands behind his product, within its specified limitations of course.
|
|
rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
|
|
|
Jul 21, 2014 - 11:28am PT
|
Just a quick note today. Artic sea ice has actually increased over the last two days as a low pressure system covered wide regions of the area. This is unusual, but not unprecedented for this time of the melt season. The sun has remained unusually quiet for nearly a week now.
.
|
|
shut up and pull
climber
|
|
|
Jul 21, 2014 - 11:37am PT
|
Global warming has stopped ... opposite of the fascists' computer model predictions.
|
|
shut up and pull
climber
|
|
|
Jul 21, 2014 - 11:39am PT
|
When the empirical evidence is in conflict with the computer predictions ... Real scientists admit that their models are wrong.
|
|
shut up and pull
climber
|
|
|
Jul 21, 2014 - 11:45am PT
|
"Climate change" = nothing but the most massive redistribution of wealth scheme ever. Fight the fascists.
|
|
rottingjohnny
Sport climber
mammoth lakes ca
|
|
|
Jul 21, 2014 - 11:49am PT
|
Shutupandpull...I agree those irritating Prius owners and their 50MPG make owning a Humvee impossible...Dicks..rj
|
|
Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
|
|
|
Jul 21, 2014 - 01:43pm PT
|
Just a quick note today. Artic sea ice has actually increased over the last two days as a low pressure system covered wide regions of the area.
Who told you that? I watch the U Illinois time series of Arctic sea ice area, which is generally the reference. Over the past 10 days it has declined by 44,000 to 176,000 square kilometers every day.
This is unusual, but not unprecedented for this time of the melt season.
Far as I can see it did not happen, but if it had that would not be so unusual. About 1 increasing day for each 10 decreasing days in July over the full run of these data.
Something more real: NCDC just released their June global temperatures, turns out to be the warmest June on record (since 1880). That follows after the warmest May on record in the same data. Which follows the 2nd-warmest April, and the 4th-warmest March...since at least 1880.
|
|
Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
|
|
|
Jul 21, 2014 - 01:51pm PT
|
Something more scientific, which goes directly to that talking point that none of the denialists here can think past. A new paper in Nature Climate Change, by Risby et al. The usual blog suspects are flailing to "rebut" this one already, without seeming to have read it. But essentially this paper confirms what a number of other studies using different methods have found too: the circulatory patterns associated with ENSO (and ocean/atmosphere heat exchange) have to be realistically considered to understand the surface temperature data.
Well-estimated global surface warming in climate pr ojectionsselected for ENSO phase
The question of how climate model projections have tracked the actual evolution of global mean surface air temperature is important in establishing the credibility of their projections. Some studies and the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report suggest that the recent 15-year period (1998–2012) provides evidence that models are overestimating current temperature evolution. Such comparisons are not evidence against model trends because they represent only one realization where the decadal natural variability component of the model climate is generally not in phase with observations. We present a more appropriate test of models where only those models with natural variability (represented by El Niño/Southern Oscillation) largely in phase with observations are selected from multi-model ensembles for comparison with observations. These tests show that climate models have provided good estimates of 15-year trends, including for recent periods and for Pacific spatial trend patterns.
|
|
k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
|
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Jul 21, 2014 - 03:48pm PT
|
Global warming has stopped ... opposite of the fascists' computer model predictions.
Brilliant.
Headline: The World Just Had Its Hottest June On Record
|
|
|
SuperTopo on the Web
|
Let us know!