Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
Sep 27, 2013 - 11:43am PT
The IPCC AR5 SPM press release
. "True to its form, there are bombastic statements about inanities of no consequence and vague mumblings about the real questions. By ‘real questions’, I mean those on magnitude of any change and the quantum of blame that affixed on us, i.e., people.

Here’s a spectacular-sounding statement that is utterly meaningless and even wrong in places:

Warming in the climate system is unequivocal and since 1950 many changes have been
observed throughout the climate system that are unprecedented over decades to millennia.

If you pull up any global temperature graph, the ‘warming’ is minuscule since 1950, though unequivocal. ‘Unprecedented’, ‘millenia’ are just fancy words the IPCC likes to use, and seem completely out of place here.

There are even more vapid statements. An entire paragraph is taken up Qin Dahe making points about the climate puffed up to sound as though something is going on (except nothing really is):

“Observations of changes in the climate system are based on multiple lines of independent
evidence. Our assessment of the science finds that the atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the
amount of snow and ice has diminished, the global mean sea level has risen and the concentrations
of greenhouse gases have increased”

Observations are ‘based on’ … evidence? Who would have thought so? It is not humanly possible to decipher this language.

There is only a single paragraph on putting the blame on humans and it goes like this:

It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming
since the mid-20th century. The evidence for this has grown, thanks to more and better
observations, an improved understanding of the climate system response and improved climate
models.

All three claims made in this one little paragraph are …wrong. Since the md-20th century, global temperature increased till about 1998. Then the rate of increase changed abruptly.

How are humans able to have this type of influence on the climate?

As the rate of ‘warming’ has slowed, how has the likelihood of humans having caused it increased? The cause for the warming is going up, but the warmth itself is not.

Where can more and better observations come from? The only observations are ‘more’ than what we had before, are of those that happened between now and then. It is not possible to gather more than 24 hours of observation in a day. These are the observations that show the slowdown.

Finally, whatever evidence has grown has only reduced confidence in the understanding of the climate system response the orthodoxy provided. It has reduced confidence in the models .As everyone knows, neither is an explanation for the temperature rate change on the cards, nor was it predicted by the models.

If the press release reflects the SPM, which I believe it does, and if the SPM reflects the main report, which I believe it will, the IPCC has put itself in a remarkably weak position. It will not provide any momentum for future international climate negotiations."


monolith

climber
SF bay area
Sep 27, 2013 - 11:46am PT
From the AR5 summary:

Ocean warming dominates the increase in energy stored in the climate system, accounting for
more than 90% of the energy accumulated between 1971 and 2010 (high confidence). It is virtually
certain that the upper ocean (0−700 m) warmed from 1971 to 2010 (see Figure SPM.3), and it
likely warmed between the 1870s and 1971. {3.2, Box 3.1}
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Sep 27, 2013 - 11:48am PT
MONO
Perhaps the most inconvenient fact is the lack of global warming for well over 10 years now


ODD. This is a direct quote from pg 65 in the final released AR5 SPM:

“Models do not generally reproduce the observed reduction in surface warming trend over the last 10 –15 years.”
pg.65 AR5 SPM


Absolutely NOTHING in your statement regarding "OCEANS"!

Your recent post:

Ocean warming dominates the increase in energy stored in the climate system, accounting for
more than 90% of the energy accumulated between 1971 and 2010 (high confidence). It is virtually
certain that the upper ocean (0−700 m) warmed from 1971 to 2010 (see Figure SPM.3), and it
likely warmed between the 1870s and 1971. {3.2, Box 3.1}

States absolutely NOTHING to counter the statement in pg65 of the AR5 SPM

“Models do not generally reproduce the observed reduction in surface warming trend over the last 10 –15 years.”


Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Sep 27, 2013 - 11:49am PT
Nice Ron. Your writing skills have improved dramatically. You articulate your thoughts very well.

keep it coming
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Sep 27, 2013 - 11:49am PT
Of course the deniers don't want to mention the oceans, Chief.

That's why I bring it up.

Well Duh!
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Sep 27, 2013 - 11:51am PT
Your first post mentions NOTHING regarding OCEANS!

MONO
Perhaps the most inconvenient fact is the lack of global warming for well over 10 years now


ODD. This is a direct quote from pg 65 in the final released AR5 SPM:

“Models do not generally reproduce the observed reduction in surface warming trend over the last 10 –15 years.”
pg.65 AR5 SPM


Absolutely NOTHING in your statement regarding "OCEANS"!

Your recent post:

Ocean warming dominates the increase in energy stored in the climate system, accounting for
more than 90% of the energy accumulated between 1971 and 2010 (high confidence). It is virtually
certain that the upper ocean (0−700 m) warmed from 1971 to 2010 (see Figure SPM.3), and it
likely warmed between the 1870s and 1971. {3.2, Box 3.1}

States absolutely NOTHING to counter the statement in pg65 of the AR5 SPM

“Models do not generally reproduce the observed reduction in surface warming trend over the last 10 –15 years.”

monolith

climber
SF bay area
Sep 27, 2013 - 11:51am PT
Whenever deniers claim global warming has stopped, we show them the ocean data.

It tends to send them in a tail chasing mode.
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Sep 27, 2013 - 11:52am PT
Priceless.

The Chief continues to post nonsexist "quotes from AR5", even after he's been shown point blank that they do not exist.


Go Get 'Em, The Chief. you continue to show us, with each post you make, just what a dip you are.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Sep 27, 2013 - 11:53am PT
Ron forgot to tell us that he plagiarized his whole post from a blogger. Does he often do that?
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Sep 27, 2013 - 11:54am PT
he's been shown point blank that they do not exist in AR5.

WHERE AND BY WHOM?




The observed reduction in surface warming trend over the period 1998–2012 as compared to the period 1951–2012, is due in roughly equal measaure to a reduced trend in radiative forcing and a cooling contribution from internal variability, which includes a possible redistribution of heat within the ocean (medium confidence). The reduced trend in radiative forcing is primarily due to volcanic eruptions and the timing of the downward phase of the 11-year solar cycle. However, there is low confidence in quantifying the role of changes in radiative forcing in causing the reduced warming trend. There is medium confidence that internal decadal variability causes to a substantial degree the difference between observations and the simulations; the latter are not expected to reproduce the timing of internal variability. There may also be a contribution from forcing inadequacies and, in some models, an overestimate of the response to increasing greenhouse gas and other anthropogenic forcing (dominated by the effects of aerosols). {9.4, Box 9.2, 10.3, Box 10.2, 11.3}
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Sep 27, 2013 - 11:55am PT
From the AR5 summary:


Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any
preceding decade since 1850 (see Figure SPM.1). In the Northern Hemisphere, 1983–2012 was
likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years (medium confidence). {2.4, 5.3}

Ocean warming dominates the increase in energy stored in the climate system, accounting for
more than 90% of the energy accumulated between 1971 and 2010 (high confidence). It is virtually
certain that the upper ocean (0−700 m) warmed from 1971 to 2010 (see Figure SPM.3), and it
likely warmed between the 1870s and 1971. {3.2, Box 3.1}

Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Sep 27, 2013 - 11:57am PT
Ron forgot to tell us that he plagiarized his whole post from a blogger. Does he often do that?

Oh was that it? Ron is that true?

Damn. Popped my bubble
Gary

Social climber
Desolation Basin, Calif.
Sep 27, 2013 - 11:58am PT
Yeah Bruce,, its FUNNY AS HELL to read the doom gloom predictions of "rising oceans" that will surely just drown us as we will just set there watching the tide rise above our lips... If the "scientists" that create this hogwash think that society is that lame over all, then they arent even connected vaguely to reality.

Ocean levels have been rising for the past century, Ron. The National Geodetic Survey, and its predecessor the Coast and Geodetic Survey, has documented that.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Sep 27, 2013 - 12:00pm PT
Exactly as predicted, the circus has ignited the fuel of self immolation. Events contrary to their projections will take center stage to fan the flames as they burn. AR6 anyone?
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Sep 27, 2013 - 12:01pm PT
The Chief, you've posted this several times:


This is a direct quote from pg 65 in the final released AR5 SPM:

“Models do not generally reproduce the observed reduction in surface warming trend over the last 10 –15 years.”

pg.65 AR5 SPM



Perhaps you can quote the entire paragraph for us, you know, from the Final Draft of AR5 WG1?

This shouldn't be a challenge because you must have it handy and have read it, right?
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
Sep 27, 2013 - 12:02pm PT
Plagerize? With the text in quotes??

whudevah..


All of this global warming we havent been having is unprecedented , so it must be our fault...
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Sep 27, 2013 - 12:04pm PT
Rick! Where have you been?

What are your thoughts on sociopathy?


For your reference, in case the long list of Chuff posts is not good enough for you:


Antisocial personality disorder
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


Antisocial (Dissocial) Personality Disorder is a personality disorder characterized by a pervasive pattern of disregard for, or violation of, the rights of others that begins in childhood or early adolescence and continues into adulthood. There may be an impoverished moral sense or conscience and a history of crime, legal problems, impulsive and aggressive behavior.
The American Psychiatric Association's Diagnostic and Statistical Manual (DSM) and the World Health Organization's International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems' (ICD) (F60.2 Dissocial personality disorder.[1]) have similar but not identical criteria. Both have stated that their diagnosis has also been known as psychopathy or sociopathy, though the criteria are different to some other commonly used assessments.[2][3][4][5][6] Antisocial personality disorder falls under the dramatic/erratic cluster of personality disorders.[7]
Contents [hide]

1 Diagnosis
1.1 DSM-IV-TR
2 Further considerations
2.1 Similar concepts
2.1.1 Psychopathy
2.1.2 Dissocial personality disorder
2.2 Theodore Millon's subtypes
2.3 Comorbidity
3 Causes and pathophysiology
3.1 Hormones and neurotransmitters
3.2 Limbic neural maldevelopment
3.3 Cultural influences
3.4 Environment
3.5 Head injuries
4 Treatment
5 Prognosis
6 Epidemiology
7 History
8 See also
9 References
10 Further reading
11 External links


The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Sep 27, 2013 - 12:05pm PT
READ KMAN!

The observed reduction in surface warming trend over the period 1998–2012 as compared to the period 1951–2012, is due in roughly equal measaure to a reduced trend in radiative forcing and a cooling contribution from internal variability, which includes a possible redistribution of heat within the ocean (medium confidence).

The reduced trend in radiative forcing is primarily due to volcanic eruptions and the timing of the downward phase of the 11-year solar cycle. However, there is low confidence in quantifying the role of changes in radiative forcing in causing the reduced warming trend. There is medium confidence that internal decadal variability causes to a substantial degree the difference between observations and the simulations; the latter are not expected to reproduce the timing of internal variability.

There may also be a contribution from forcing inadequacies and, in some models, an overestimate of the response to increasing greenhouse gas and other anthropogenic forcing (dominated by the effects of aerosols). {9.4, Box 9.2, 10.3, Box 10.2, 11.3}
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Sep 27, 2013 - 12:07pm PT
and a cooling contribution from internal variability, which includes a possible redistribution of heat within the ocean

Those pesky oceans.
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Sep 27, 2013 - 12:08pm PT
MONO, you left this out of the above!

which includes a possible redistribution of heat within the ocean (medium confidence).


WHY??
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