Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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Elcapinyoazz

Social climber
Joshua Tree
Feb 10, 2014 - 10:53am PT
Say what you want about east coast skiers, but you grow up skiing on that ice masquerading as snow, and you do get good. Any numpty can float powder stashes. Bode Miller developed in NH and ME, and he's about the best the US has ever produced.

wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
Feb 10, 2014 - 11:12am PT

Credit: wilbeer

Now I Have been called a pussy .....ha.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Feb 10, 2014 - 11:44am PT
Another piece in the puzzle: a new paper by England et al. just published in Nature Climate Change:

Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus

Despite ongoing increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases, the Earth’s global average surface air temperature has remained more or less steady since 2001. A variety of mechanisms have been proposed to account for this slowdown in surface warming. A key component of the global hiatus that has been identified is cool eastern Pacific sea surface temperature, but it is unclear how the ocean has remained relatively cool there in spite of ongoing increases in radiative forcing. Here we show that a pronounced strengthening in Pacific trade winds over the past two decades—unprecedented in observations/reanalysis data and not captured by climate models—is sufficient to account for the cooling of the tropical Pacific and a substantial slowdown in surface warming through increased subsurface ocean heat uptake. The extra uptake has come about through increased subduction in the Pacific shallow overturning cells, enhancing heat convergence in the equatorial thermocline. At the same time, the accelerated trade winds have increased equatorial upwelling in the central and eastern Pacific, lowering sea surface temperature there, which drives further cooling in other regions. The net effect of these anomalous winds is a cooling in the 2012 global average surface air temperature of 0.1–0.2 °C, which can account for much of the hiatus in surface warming observed since 2001. This hiatus could persist for much of the present decade if the trade wind trends continue, however rapid warming is expected to resume once the anomalous wind trends abate.

a, Temperature anomalies are shown as the annual mean relative to 1951–1980, with individual years shown as grey bars and a five-year running mean overlaid in bold. b, Pacific wind stress anomalies are computed over the region 6° N–6°… 

Colour shading shows observed temperature trends (°C per decade) during 1992–2011 at the sea surface (Northern Hemisphere only), zonally averaged in the latitude-depth sense (as per Supplementary Fig. 6) and along the equatorial Pacifi…
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Feb 10, 2014 - 11:55am PT
Does it matter? Do you see the trend? The snow season is ending sooner.
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Feb 10, 2014 - 12:10pm PT
LOL, Sketch complains about cherry picking.

Most of the later months in the season show negative trends in snow cover.
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Feb 10, 2014 - 12:22pm PT
When does skiing generally end?

The ski season is ending sooner.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Feb 10, 2014 - 12:35pm PT
The new England et al. (2014) research shows that intensification of Pacific trade winds over the past two decades has been churning heat into the ocean, with increased subduction of relatively warm surface water and more upwelling of cold deeper water.

These result form a coherent picture with other recent studies, notably Balmeseda et al. (2013) documenting heat uptake by the deep ocean, and Kosaka and Xie (2013) tying the slowdown in global temperature rise specifically to La Nina wind conditions in the eastern tropical Pacific. Taking a different approach, Foster and Rahmstorf (2012), among others, have shown statistically that El Nino/La Nina effects explain the recent slowdown in surface temperatures.

To link these four to another important recent study: Cowtan & Way (2013) developed a new temperature index with improved geographical coverage, notably in the Arctic. Their index shows that global air temperatures have in fact continued to rise through the "hiatus" period, although not as steeply as before; the tropical Pacific-driven slowdown studied by England et al. and Kosaka & Xie is still visible in their data.
crunch

Social climber
CO
Feb 10, 2014 - 12:38pm PT
Lovely bit of cherry picking.

Looking at the similar charts for October, November, December, January, February and March (the colder months), the trend for all of those months looks more favorable.

I think the point monolith was making was not to do with the amount or intensity of snow that fell in the winter, but that the resulting springtime snow cover is getting less and less.

April, May, June, July and August all show a distinct trend to less snow cover. None of the other months appear to have any obvious pattern or trend.

It's basically the springtime months that show a strong trend.

Whatever is happening in the depths of winter, once the snow stops falling the snow cover is disappearing faster.

Why would that be?
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Feb 10, 2014 - 12:43pm PT
That's when most of the resorts close.

We used to backcountry ski a lot in May. Not so much any more.
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Feb 10, 2014 - 12:48pm PT
Yep, it does happen, just not as much, or as easy as it used to be.

Mammoth will try to stay open till July, but we know what that means.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Feb 10, 2014 - 12:55pm PT
But which comes first.... the wind or the hot water? Can't tell from the abstract.
I think the winds appear to be driving this train. A lurking question is what's driving these unusual winds (or put another way, the prolonged La Nina conditions)? Are they just "natural variability" or themselves products of the TOA energy imbalance? So far the balance of opinion leans toward "natural" but with some dissent. I expect we'll see more research on this in the near future.

Wind conditions also play a role in recent changes around Antarctica, with what could be global implications. I'll put together a note about that in the next week or so.
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Feb 10, 2014 - 12:56pm PT
Yep, the Sierras suffer drought now. Still, the overall northern hemisphere snow cover in late snow season is clearly decreasing.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Feb 10, 2014 - 01:08pm PT
^^ Nice pictures, big improvement over the thumbnails I posted.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Feb 10, 2014 - 02:46pm PT
Kevin Cowtan, of Cowtan & Way (2013), remarks that England et al. (2014) seem to have "uncovered the biggest piece in the puzzle of recent temperature trends." But he also notes that Figure 5a in FM's post above, reproduced from the England et al. paper, is almost impossible to read for the color-challenged. Cowtan offers this simplification:

monolith

climber
SF bay area
Feb 10, 2014 - 03:26pm PT
Yep, it does suck to understand more of the components of climate change.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Feb 10, 2014 - 03:44pm PT
More curve fitting.
Oh joy.
Rapture.
Sketch, did you ever look up what "statistically significant" means?
Add "curve fitting" to the list. You've used that term many times without understanding what it means.

Or even without learning words, can you articulate an intelligent response, say at paragraph length, to that graphic?
wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
Feb 10, 2014 - 05:17pm PT
"Wilbeer... did your knee doctor tell you to do that? Teli through trees?

...and deadfall?"

Fort,I ski with my doctor ,a lot,and ride with him.He will not climb or WW kayak though.

We ski woods here,not open powder bowls.Like someone said earlier,we also ski a lot of ice [inbounds].

One of the only places to ski real powder in the east is out back or the BC.

And yes,Bruce ,I am a PSIA Level 1 Telemark instructor,or as you say ,wanker.

Nice slab of graphs there Fort.

Credit: wilbeer

Any time you want to learn how to snowplow,sailor.
Cragar

climber
MSLA - MT
Feb 10, 2014 - 05:23pm PT
Sketch, I think I understand your 'analogy' but it doesn't work that way in science, but I could be wrong. I know little to nothing about trade world except that it works off/with the dynamic human values of making more money. Do you maintain metadata to describe to degree to which you alter the data for the trading systems to achieve the desired results?
wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
Feb 10, 2014 - 05:32pm PT
Bruce,that Mt .Hickson looks awesome.

And kidding about skiing is the norm over here to.

Fort,I have whacked a knee or two in my days,I try to stay more compact[upright] during low snowpack times.
Cragar

climber
MSLA - MT
Feb 10, 2014 - 05:35pm PT
~~~hiatus post~~~

Eh Bruce, the tele thing is much easier today with the plastic thermo-fit 4 buckle boot attached to active bindings... You been on the new sh!t? The only place I find parallel easier is on groomers. I haven't yet locked my heel but I do parallel on the groom and tele everywhere else. I am learning slowly to para in the crud but my knees don't like it. The only time my knees hurt is after a lot of para practice. Although, if you are going to lay down 1800m's worth of turns then you have a point!

That looks hella thin boney willbeer, it's what knee pads are for eh! If we can't kid about skiing then someone is taking their 1st world problem to upper lifestyler level!

The hoot and the hollar is a big part of my ski day; and I don't ski in the south

~~end of driftly talking about drifting snow style, thread drift...
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