Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Feb 10, 2014 - 03:44pm PT
More curve fitting.
Oh joy.
Rapture.
Sketch, did you ever look up what "statistically significant" means?
Add "curve fitting" to the list. You've used that term many times without understanding what it means.

Or even without learning words, can you articulate an intelligent response, say at paragraph length, to that graphic?
wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
Feb 10, 2014 - 05:17pm PT
"Wilbeer... did your knee doctor tell you to do that? Teli through trees?

...and deadfall?"

Fort,I ski with my doctor ,a lot,and ride with him.He will not climb or WW kayak though.

We ski woods here,not open powder bowls.Like someone said earlier,we also ski a lot of ice [inbounds].

One of the only places to ski real powder in the east is out back or the BC.

And yes,Bruce ,I am a PSIA Level 1 Telemark instructor,or as you say ,wanker.

Nice slab of graphs there Fort.

Credit: wilbeer

Any time you want to learn how to snowplow,sailor.
Cragar

climber
MSLA - MT
Feb 10, 2014 - 05:23pm PT
Sketch, I think I understand your 'analogy' but it doesn't work that way in science, but I could be wrong. I know little to nothing about trade world except that it works off/with the dynamic human values of making more money. Do you maintain metadata to describe to degree to which you alter the data for the trading systems to achieve the desired results?
wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
Feb 10, 2014 - 05:32pm PT
Bruce,that Mt .Hickson looks awesome.

And kidding about skiing is the norm over here to.

Fort,I have whacked a knee or two in my days,I try to stay more compact[upright] during low snowpack times.
Cragar

climber
MSLA - MT
Feb 10, 2014 - 05:35pm PT
~~~hiatus post~~~

Eh Bruce, the tele thing is much easier today with the plastic thermo-fit 4 buckle boot attached to active bindings... You been on the new sh!t? The only place I find parallel easier is on groomers. I haven't yet locked my heel but I do parallel on the groom and tele everywhere else. I am learning slowly to para in the crud but my knees don't like it. The only time my knees hurt is after a lot of para practice. Although, if you are going to lay down 1800m's worth of turns then you have a point!

That looks hella thin boney willbeer, it's what knee pads are for eh! If we can't kid about skiing then someone is taking their 1st world problem to upper lifestyler level!

The hoot and the hollar is a big part of my ski day; and I don't ski in the south

~~end of driftly talking about drifting snow style, thread drift...
wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
Feb 10, 2014 - 05:40pm PT
Yeah Cragar,[I loved those mags]I break out the knee pads now and then.

I also paramark inbounds a bit.
TLP

climber
Feb 10, 2014 - 05:42pm PT
Wasn't it in NY that there was some loose knit (more like loose nuts) group calling themselves something like Live to Ski, Ski to Die and doing the most hair-raising imaginable horrendous little gully descents through the dense trees, some with mandatory rappels in the middle? Or was that some nightmare I had once?
Cragar

climber
MSLA - MT
Feb 10, 2014 - 05:50pm PT
Hey TLP, do you mean NATO? Maybe not, I think the NATO folks were more into thicketeering than mountainveggieneering
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Feb 10, 2014 - 05:50pm PT
Perhaps we have different definitions. In designing trading systems, curve fitting is the process of adjusting the parameters to achieve the most desirable results.
As a generalization that's just partly true. You start out with a functional form, the curve, then estimate parameters to best fit the data. As a specific about the England et al. graphic it's not even partly true, the graph shows an overlay of physical models and observations, no curve-fitting is in sight.
Perhaps I should use smoothing or optimization, instead.
More mixup. Smoothing can be parametric (curve fitting) or nonparametric (e.g. running means, actually seen in the graphic; or many alternatives such as lowess regression where there's no fixed functional form or explicit parameters so they are almost nonparametric). Running means (seen in the graphic) involve no optimization, they're just arithmetic. Optimization (such as minimizing a sum of squares or maximizing a likelihood function) might be a good way to fit curves if there are parameters, but it's meaningless for nonparametric smoothing.
With Cowtan and Way, they used the kriging method over the oceans and the hybrid method over land and sea ice.
No, they used both over both, and compared their skill both globally and for specific regions.
This combination produced uniquely warm Arctic temps. The Cowtan and Way temperature record showed more warming than the temperature records used.
Because you're mixed up about "combination" this leads to a false conclusion. Their hybrid method combines spatial information from satellite data with temporal information from surface measurements, so its trend could be greater or less than that of either component.
How convenient.
No comment.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
Feb 10, 2014 - 05:55pm PT
You mean Ski to Die,and I have skied with a few of em in the Dacks.

They are great ,no, unreal BC skiers.Real good climbers also.

My friend Fred Foster,in Saranac Lake knows all of them,and has taken me "touring" with them a couple of times.

They for the most part are sick.
Credit: wilbeer
This was taken on one of those "tours"
WBraun

climber
Feb 10, 2014 - 06:40pm PT
There's no evolution.

You retards say the same stupid sh!t over and over every day in this thread .....
wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
Feb 10, 2014 - 06:44pm PT
Comedy^^^^^^,Not you Sketch,the Braunanator.
WBraun

climber
Feb 10, 2014 - 07:37pm PT
The evolution of the Bruce Almighty

Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah

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Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah

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WBraun

climber
Feb 10, 2014 - 07:44pm PT
My computer is intel design

Intel Core i5-3570K Ivy Bridge 3.4GHz (3.8GHz Turbo) LGA 1155

It evolved from a previous intel core duo processor.

Which was created at the intel factory ......
wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
Feb 10, 2014 - 09:56pm PT
Ah,the Olympics.
The American woman skier ,live on NBC,just said "Spring Conditions".

Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Feb 10, 2014 - 11:08pm PT
Climate change winners: Adélie penguin population expands as ice fields recede

They found that the population size of an Adélie penguin colony on Antarctica’s Beaufort Island near the southern Ross Sea increased 84 percent (from 35,000 breeding pairs to 64,000 breeding pairs) as the ice fields retreated between 1958-2010, with the biggest change in the last three decades.

The Adélie penguin lives only where there is sea ice but needs the ice-free land to breed.

http://www1.umn.edu/news/news-releases/2013/UR_CONTENT_437812.html
climbski2

Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
Feb 11, 2014 - 02:48am PT
So how long till AGW deniers are gone the way of the dodo..

I say.. 10 years..but

sad the damage they will have done in that time.

Keeping real work from being done.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Feb 11, 2014 - 10:38am PT
Back late last night after a couple days out yonder, repacking now for other destinations.

I see Edward is still on the make the models and observations fit at all cost at the expense of reality tangent even as Chiloe diverges into the wind blew the warming away underseas scenario. This seems likely Chiloe, it's part and parcel of the negative phase of the PDO. The effects of the different phases are felt about every 30 years.

Fortmental, thanks for the iditadont headsup. It's happened before and the PETA folk would love to see it cancelled for good. Back in the eighties we used to bring our kids to see the restart out on Knik-Goose Bay. My middle son, who imagined himself as many things as a youngster, used to be outside everyday, even in thirty below with added windchill, hooking our big mutt up to his little sled and mushing about the yard.On another note mentalcase, now that The Chief allowed you out of his toilet, your graphics and pictorials are getting better but still dead wrong.

Bruce, i fear for your sanity. You seem to be on here at all hours endlessly prattling on about what you see in the mirror. You should have some snow now from this latest set of storms. Can't you get outside and find yourself an avalanche or something.

You wack jobs have lost this thing big time. Your favorite warmist scientists are scattering into the wind in all directions, muttering out loud different reasons for the lack of conformity that Ed still denies. Get over it idiots, you've lost, get a life, the world will continue to turn without your hysteric concerns.
climbski2

Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
Feb 11, 2014 - 10:48am PT
I think WC is still made in GB. Wouldn't swear to it though. Really like those Heliums. Been building a new rack. I do need a new pair of ski's next season. Glad I didnt buy a pair this year.. woulda been a waste till yeserday. Hittin the BC tomorrow.... hmmm maybe get a run or two this afternoon

Important work like switching to nuclear and designing better nuclear. That's hard enough with the public opinion against nuclear. Without the flat-earthers tossed in.
Elcapinyoazz

Social climber
Joshua Tree
Feb 11, 2014 - 10:49am PT
Fortunately for me, 99.9% of today's supposed fly fisherman do not know how to single haul and cast with a stiff wind present thus allowing me the entire river to myself.

Could be. Or it could be that the rest of us are WORKING on Mondays, rather than suckling at uncle sam's sweet, sweet teat.

Run along now, them mustard biscuits won't make themselves ya know.

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