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The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Sep 16, 2013 - 12:24am PT
EDH
projection (not a prediction)..

Ah. Twist of verbiage solves the issue that he was WRONG.

His SUPER COMPUTERS were WRONG ED H!


Thank God the policy makers ignored him.

The new model also incorporates new data on the thickness of sea ice – which satellites (such as Cryosat-2) are now able to measure more accurately. This new data was one of the reasons Maslowski and his team moved their estimate for summer sea ice disappearance back a few years.

Maslowski says he is not trying to be alarmist; he’s merely letting policymakers know that there is a possibility that there may be no sea ice in the Arctic in the summer by the end of the decade.
http://www.sciencepoles.org/news/news_detail/maslowski_and_team_offer_new_estimate_summer_arctic_sea_ice_disappearance/


Just another example of the complete FAIL on the part of the Computer Modeling business/industry.

Nothing more.


1959 trip that it surfaced...

It in fact surfaced ED H did it not. The thickness of the sea ice is not more than 14-16". Did so on the 17 March at that. No where near the warmest part of the Summer thaw when the sea ice is at it's thinnest. Any idea what "records' indicate as far as total "Volume" that Summer. Hmmmmmm.





dirtbag

climber
Sep 16, 2013 - 01:06am PT
^^^^^ Short man complex. ^^^^
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Sep 16, 2013 - 02:08am PT
EDh

What part of his direct quote did you not understand?

"Basically, we're trying to make policymakers and people who need to know about climate change in the Arctic realise there is a chance that summer sea ice could be gone by the end of the decade"

His model failed to produce. Miserably.


Deny however much you want EDH. But the "projection" models are failing miserably. All of em.

The masses are seeing the failure and are turning their backs on the MMGW escapade. Evidenced by the events in Australia and the EU.

Carbon Taxing and Trading are going completely away.

They too are a complete failure. Gone!




Still NO ONE has produced a photo of the North Pole ICE FREE the past TEN YEARS????

EDH, MONO, LARRY HAMILTON???

Hmmmmmmmmmmm.
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Sep 16, 2013 - 02:33am PT
Look, if there is a programer out there who can produce a program that would redact the majority of Chuffs diatribes I would pay good money for it. Without it (or a heart attack on chuffs part) this thread is pretty much dominated by the village idiot. Its a zero. I'm outa here.

I had great hopes that Mad Poodle would live up to his billing. He was the great white hope.

White as in scientists lab coat. Gotta be PC you know.

Chuff you really are an astounding idiot. Probably in the top three I've come across and they're all cut from the same cloth.
BLUEBLOCR

Social climber
joshua tree
Sep 16, 2013 - 03:12am PT
^^^^ He doesn't seem that much different than you'all. Other than opinion.

You can't stop a war by keep fighting. Or by quitting (someone else will jus stand up for ya).
Two must stop, and shake hands..
raymond phule

climber
Sep 16, 2013 - 05:53am PT
Interesting, a 1 year "trend" is enough when claiming that AGW is over but a 40 year trend means nothing if it indicates the opposite.
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Sep 16, 2013 - 09:14am PT
RFOOL
Interesting, a 1 year "trend" is enough when claiming that AGW is over ....

Interesting. Where did anyone questioning this MMGW state or post any kind of a "1" trend here then claim "AGW is over"?

Oh, you must be mistaking FRONTOLOBOTME's post about all them supposed "record breaking" weather events that occurred this year (8 months) and attempting to correlate them to MMGW.

Got it.


EDH
how much of a chance?

It doesn't matter a bit ED H. Cus it did not happen as he "projected" "IT MAY" happen, regardless the % or "chance". That is the foundation of so much of this hysteria. "IF", "CHANCE", "COULD". Then you and the rest justify it all with scientific statistical verbiage that in reality, means nothing.

Fact is, it just aint materializing as so many of the MMGW Industrial Researchers are or have been "projecting" it may or can or could or........



Still NO PHOTO of an ICE FREE NORTH POLE/ARCTIC.... LARRY???

HMMMMM.

Malemute

Ice climber
the ghost
Sep 16, 2013 - 09:45am PT
Look, if there is a programer out there who can produce a program that would redact the majority of Chuffs diatribes I would pay good money for it. Without it (or a heart attack on chuffs part) this thread is pretty much dominated by the village idiot. Its a zero. I'm outa here.
Another vote for GreaseMonkey,
I've used it to block the 3 deniers for at least a year.
If you guys wouldn't answer them, I wouldn't know they were here.

Bruce, you need to persuade Cmac to give a programmer access to supertopo to remove posts (or posters) at the site. I'm sure it would be easy to ban the liars from this thread.
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Sep 16, 2013 - 09:56am PT
You aint got nothing. Not a damn thing.

Hell, you can't even produce any kind of photographic evidence of an ICE FREE NORTH POLE/ARCTIC.

Nada.


Reaching a straws FRONTAL just like the bullshet lies you attempted to correlate with your theories yesterday.

Keep reaching clown.

FRONTAL
Melt Puddles, Distant Open Water Visible at North Pole Camera 2

AH, no where near the NP idiot! That was already completely debunked idiot. Shall I repost the location of that bouy at the time that particular photo was taken???

UPDATE 7/26: I received a reply via email from Roger Anderson, who is one of the webcam scientists at the Universtiy of Washington. I had asked him if the media was using the webcams that were NOT at the North Pole, but rather drifting southward. He replied: "Yes, they are. The approximate position of the webcams today (obtained from PAWS Buoy 819920) is 07/25/1500Z 84.773°N 5.415°W." This is even further south than I had placed the buoy, because the data I had was one week old. This puts the webcam at approximately 350 miles south of the North Pole, closer to Greenland than Santa Claus! So no worries, folks, the North Pole is not melting.

The full story of that bullshet propaganda here:
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/did-the-media-just-prove-north-pole-is-not-melting/15739869

Keep reaching.
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Sep 16, 2013 - 10:01am PT
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH^^^^^


Frontalobotme is going to cry foul now.


Keep grasping clown.



You got nothing.
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Sep 16, 2013 - 10:08am PT
Sorry FRONTAL. No where near the pole. Some 350 MILES away.
Total FAIL on your part.... AGAIN.


http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/did-the-media-just-prove-north-pole-is-not-melting/15739869





BTW: Those were MELT PONDS. NOT OPEN WATER fool!

Though the North Pole lake's 15 minutes of fame focused worldwide attention on global warming's effects on Arctic sea ice, the melting is actually part of an annual summer thaw, according to researchers who run the North Pole Environmental Observatory. "The formation of these ponds and their disappearance is part of a natural cycle," said Axel Schweiger, head of the Applied Physics Laboratory's Polar Science Center at the University of Washington, which helps run the observatory.

The lake, about the size of an Olympic swimming pool, started forming in mid-July, LiveScience first reported on July 23. The size and timing of the lake are typical for this time of year and location, the researchers said.



FAIL FAIL FAIL FAIL........ TOTAL FAIL!



The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Sep 16, 2013 - 10:21am PT
Wrongo.

You lost again. Clown.

FAIL!
dirtbag

climber
Sep 16, 2013 - 10:47am PT
Fm you're wasting your time explaining anything to this complete dipsh#t.
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Sep 16, 2013 - 10:59am PT
^^^^ He doesn't seem that much different than you'all. Other than opinion.

You can't stop a war by keep fighting. Or by quitting (someone else will jus stand up for ya).
Two must stop, and shake hands..


BB, I know you mean well here but you are being disingenuous by placing chuff in a position of "average". Are you familiar with the Authoritarian personality? Look it up if not and you will find that you are familiar as on average 20 -30% of any population are authoritarian.

Some, like Chuff are very Authoritarian. The only way they can function in this world is to identify an enemy and dominate it. Why do you think he wound up in the military for his whole career? Lucky thing too as otherwise he would have spent his time here running around dominating us. The Military was a great place for him - a mutually beneficial cooperative situation if you will.

But then he came home. He had the good grace sense to go live up in some isolated sand pit and find a healthy outlet for his authoritarian impulses by bossing gullible clients around in the hills and all was well..... then he discovered the internet.

I think you are equating us with the chuff in the sense that we are prone to descending to his level of social imperative. This is true and it is a common effect. If you insert a single authoritarian personality into any social group, and that authoritarian has poor boundaries and social skills, his style will dominate any process because by definition it is antagonistic, belligerent, and entirely dependant on conflict and assertion of dominance.

Like the Taliban for instance. In a military environment this serves a purpose. Socially it is poisonously destructive . We all have some element of authoritarianism but Chuff's is off the charts. The dysfunction here can be traced directly to Chuff and his relentless beligerently antisocial behavior.

This isn't a real war so the only real solution - if anyone is truly interested in healthy debate - is to isolate and banish the source of the poison. Maybe Dr F's idea of petitioning CMAC is not so bad.

The immediate complaint of course is suppression of free speech. I don't know about you yanks but up here in communist Canada free speech has limits of responsible use, much like guns. It is the curse of America that your limitless notion of freedom means that you are endlessly subservient to the whims of the village idiots. This is classic Fox News "fair and balanced". Great on paper but the reality is that those with no moral boundaries and the liscence of libertarianism burning in their ass leverage that into belligerent antagonistic bullying and the natural defense is to reply in turn - the definition of dysfunction.

Like any dysfunctional relationship, the first order of business is to identify the source and remove it. We don't act violently here so that means some form of banishment. If CMAC won't kick his worthless ass off the site then the only option is this "grease monkey" you guys mention.

If that isn't available I personally am finding Chuffs presence too poisonous to make it worthwhile here.
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Sep 16, 2013 - 11:42am PT
Summer arctic ice extent, 1870-2012.

Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
Sep 16, 2013 - 11:52am PT
Ed as we CANT predict the future natural variables with ANY consistency, couldnt a one year RECOVERY as weve seen in 2013 BE the start of an up swing? Will we be saying this again next year? Temps arent up. And what IF that happens? Then will it be explained away as an local anomaly?

BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
Sep 16, 2013 - 12:01pm PT
Ron,

It is easy to see natural variability in the data, but a clear trend over a much longer period.

Don't place too much emphasis on one year. Use a three year moving average to smooth the data out.

I have to do that all of the time with decline curves in oil and gas wells, which are almost always hyperbolic to some extent. That depends on the pressure and permeability of the reservoir rock. I usually use a 3 month moving average to smooth out well production declines. They all decline until depleted. Oil and gas wells don't last forever...

We CAN predict the future with a high degree of confidence. I do it every day when evaluating production. I can take a well, run it through some software, and tell you what that well is worth, if you are buying or selling it.
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
Sep 16, 2013 - 12:03pm PT
Agreed Base.. But this years recovery was above the levels of the last three years..I would think that to be significant.
BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
Sep 16, 2013 - 12:08pm PT
Ron,

You plot it and see how it compares with the next three years. Don't put too much emphasis on one year, unless you understand the processes involved which lead to ice extent.

I get tired of people always blaming a weather event on climate change. There is a difference between climate and weather.

The green side tosses out bad information as well. That is why you do better reading peer reviewed papers. Of course most of us don't have the math background to understand many of them, but the abstracts provide a summary of the paper and its findings.

It's fun. With health issues, PubMed has pretty much every medical journal article on Earth located on one searchable website. I've used that one a bunch. Very helpful.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Sep 16, 2013 - 12:15pm PT
What a bunch of miserable lying sacks of shet. You have an opponent(The Chief) that uses your exact same tactics on you, you get your asses kicked repeatedly, then instead of admitting you losing or at least have met your match you now scheme about running to MAC for relief .Weak, weak, weak.

Ed you are wrong about the submarine surfacings at or near the north pole in 1958 and 1959. Your article clearly states that the summer 1958 excursion had nine surfacings and the level of detail in the history link clearly states one of the surfacings was at or near the pole. The other news article goes onto to confirm this in the first paragraph obliquely and then launches into what was considered far more important- ten surfacings in winter one of which was through the thin ice at the pole. The Nautilus' crossing was considered far more impressive for the time as it showed the new sub's capabilities and the Skate's surfacing through the ice was considered more impressive than a surfacing to ice free polar lead because, once again it showed the sub's capabilities. Remember this was long before the CAGW debate and scare and we were cold war propagandizing.

Base, I trust you are recovering nicely from your health issue?
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