Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Sep 16, 2013 - 02:00pm PT
The exact same way & criteria you deem those you chose to side with in the profession.

Think about it.


You and many here have chosen not to find many of the "experts" credible based solely on their personal faith beliefs.

I find that truly bias and unfair.
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Sep 16, 2013 - 02:03pm PT
you seem to know my criteria.... despite never enquiring about it...... so tell me what my criteria is which apparently is exactly the same as yours.

Why the need to speak in riddles?
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Sep 16, 2013 - 02:08pm PT
OK....

If a Climate Scientist of long standing credentials and experience has a personal faith belief in a "GOD", why should they be immediately discredited and deemed a fluke for doing so?



Here is another one.

You all seem to respect BASE's opinion in all this. Yet he is employed by and does research for the petroleum industry that you all despise so dearly.

hmmmm.
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
Sep 16, 2013 - 02:08pm PT
Whjat i worry about is NOT the science of GW, but the fact politicians chomp at this bit like an pony with a fly problem.

I see obama telling of sky rocketing electricity bills. I see more un employed now, and down the road with inflation and CC demanding , taxes and upgrades and penalties, i see only more un employed. More homeless. Seems a sick plan to the basic person attempting to live a 8.00 an hour existence.
So what are all those folks to do? Become criminals so they can get three hots and a cot at one of those "camps" that now set empty?

BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
Sep 16, 2013 - 02:15pm PT
Ron,

Yes, climate constantly changes. The entire question is whether or not pumping a lot of CO2 and methane (vented from oil wells NOT gas wells) into the atmosphere is causing the change. It is well known that the greenhouse gasses already keep the planet from freezing over. The biggest greenhouse gas by far is water vapor, and I know that a lot of the modeling efforts go into evaporation.

Chief: Punctuated Equilibrium can be used to describe rapid changes in any complex system. Boulder creek can flow for a thousand years at it's normal level with very little apparent change. A monster flood comes along and the stream morphology instantly adjusts to the new high flow state and tries to achieve the new equilibrium.

So the stream morphology is mainly caused by rare high flow events that can move a twenty ton boulder like it is nothing. The rains will stop and the stream will settle down into a new equilibrium dictated by the change in morphology caused by that one flood.

Understand? It is a simple concept.

My biggest skill is what is called "Sequence Stratigraphy." It is the new and powerful paradigm that replaced plain old "stratigraphy."

What we do is split rock units up based on a time-specific event. We use maximum flooding surfaces, or "high water marks" to split sequences into 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc order sequences.

To back up, what causes changes in sea level? The obvious answer is melting or freezing of water on the continental ice caps.

What drives these cycles, and I could post a log showing a zillion of them, is a big question. One of the top candidates is Milankovitch cycles, which we have discussed to death. They are the orbital and precession cycles of the Earth and its axis. They seem to fit, but I'm no expert on that.

The problem right now is that we are not in a warming period of the orbital cycles. We shouldn't be warming this fast, and it oddly coincides with the rising CO2 levels.

Now correlation does not equal causation, so you have to really dig into this. That is what climate scientists do.

It is a totally valid question, AGW. Ignoring it would be pretty much impossible. You have to keep an open mind. It is just science. Study to increase knowledge.

I've got to get back to work. I've been stuck working the Mississippian age limestones of the northern mid-continent for 5 years now. The Pennsylvanian is much easier. I'm better with sandstones, anyway.

I will leave you with this: sedimentary rocks are the type of rocks which record evidence of ancient conditions through time. Oil and gas is only found in, or in association with, sedimentary rocks. Oil and energy is one of the biggest businesses on the planet, and the research budgets have probably added up to a trillion dollars by now. We know a TON about the history of the planet.

Oil isn't easy to find in commercial quantities. It might seem that way, but a ton of work goes in to find economic discoveries.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Sep 16, 2013 - 02:21pm PT
Base's statement that even the republicans in Alaska acknowledge the reality of climate change is at best based upon ignorance. The political situation up here is nuanced by decades of jousting with the occupying forces of the federal government that treat the state more as a colony than as a full fledged state. Ted Steven's said it best with " If the federal government is going to shut down our industries (fishing, mining, petroleum production on federal lands, logging etc. etc.) and limit our ability for self support they are damn well going to compensate us". Embracing AGW by Alaskans is nothing more than paying the expected homage to secure compensating federal funds. Steven's was an expert at this, even securing hundreds of millions for climate studies for the University of Alaska. If Base was really in touch with what is happening in Alaska he would know that that the Natives decry climate change as a negotiation tactic for increased revenue, usually from the oil companies but also frequently from the feds for purposes like getting stupidly located communitie's moved on the federal dime. When the states surviving industries, like petroleum extraction largely on state land, are threatened by bogus endangered species classifications like the polar bears, you see dems and repubs unite in denouncing the farce of CAGW. The state is always suing the Feds over one limitation of access or another.

Base, I only wish your career last long enough for the rabid enviro's to come for your scalp too.
BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
Sep 16, 2013 - 02:26pm PT
I will say this:

Most of the execs and money guys who run the oil companies HATE the idea of global warming. They are like The Chief. His mind is made up so blindly, that he will never consider evidence that does not agree with his position.

He sure acts that way, anyway. The loss of polar see ice is as plain as day, but he attacks the data, attacks whomever gathered the data (even the U.S. Navy says that the ice is thinning!), and on and on.

See? I've made all of these posts and never called anyone a @#$-tard, and idiot, or in any way lost my cool.

I did make a mean post a week or so ago. I'll go delete it. There should be no reason to personally insult each other. The ad hominem attack is well known as the refuge of the mentally incompetent. We shouldn't do it.
mechrist

Gym climber
South of Heaven
Sep 16, 2013 - 02:26pm PT
Ron's post reminds me of the "logic" used by those who argue against gun control legislation based on the notion that people can be killed with bricks.

The physics behind tripling the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere and the implications for Earth's climate has NOTHING to do with electric bills or any of that other bullsh#t.

There should be no reason to personally insult each other.

You are correct, there SHOULD be no reason... yet clearly there is. I have a working hypothesis to explain why there is... it has to do with willful ignorance and low IQ.
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Sep 16, 2013 - 02:28pm PT
BASE:
I understand the concept. Studied it briefly in my last semester prior to receiving my BS in CULT GEO as it has to do with the evolution of cultures. IE the wheel, steam engine and the automobile. Now, mobile devices etc.

I see things in the same manner that Dick Lindzen has stated many times as has John Christy.

Science is over thinking this entire MMGW issue and in doing so, implementing and concluding forcing mechanisms that it truly does not know how much real impact they/it plays. The time frame is far too short of one to determine with certainty what and how.

You as a geologist should agree that deeming a final answer as to effect, ie MMGW, within the complex natural mechanisms/systems takes time.

The reality is this recent acceptance of the 15-20 year hiatus is indeed a game changer. To say it is not is truly unfair to the whole process. The models never "projected" it. They kept showing a steady increase.

BASE:
They are like The Chief. His mind is made up so blindly, that he will never consider evidence that does not agree with his position.

Please do show me where, any where on this thread where I once stated that GCC does NOT exist?

BREWSKY:

WES just showed up and whalla.



Now what was that about civility????



BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
Sep 16, 2013 - 02:29pm PT
Wasilla? How much time have you spent in eskimo villages? How much time have you spent north of the arctic circle, excluding Prudhoe Bay?

I've spent a ton of time in ANWR. I guess you don't know my history.
bobinc

Trad climber
Portland, Or
Sep 16, 2013 - 02:31pm PT
Yes, Ron A, things are going to get a lot more expensive.

At least I hope so. That's the only way much will change, emissions-wise.

It's like the old Fram commercial: "you can pay me now, or you can pay me later."

If we societally decide to make things more expensive and also use the new revenue to positively affect our climate (vs just sending it to Exxon/Mobil), maybe we can steer things towards overall less suffering.

If we just put our heads in the (tar) sands, we will get what is coming to us...
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Sep 16, 2013 - 02:32pm PT
This is promising......

What makes you think we despise the petroleum industry? I drive a car and use a climbing rope and would hate to do without. But really that has no relevance. Tons of people work in the industry and by that association that does not automatically make them untrustworthy. It is an association worth being wary of but by using such a dubious factor in isolation to form a certain judgement is needlessly risky if you value the technical knowledge they have. If there were also other factors of doubt such a display of strident ideological belief that demonstrates allegience to his employer regardless of science then you start to build a greater case for doubt.

I honestly hope he is right about the degree of risk involved in fracking gas considering the potential as a lower carbon producer to bridge the transition away from crap like bitumen. That dosn't mean I trust his opinion implicitly or that I would change opinion with new contrary knowledge.

I think you also missunderstand the god thing but I have stated my position there many times. It is a dogma thing for me.

But anyway, why distrust the institutional science but place trust in the contrarians? What criteria would explain that?
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Sep 16, 2013 - 02:34pm PT
Brewsky
What makes you think we despise the petroleum industry?


I think you also missunderstand the god thing but I have stated my position there many times. It is a dogma thing for me.







BOBINC
If we societally decide to make things more expensive and also use the new revenue to positively affect our climate (vs just sending it to Exxon/Mobil), maybe we can steer things towards overall less suffering.

Talk about head in the sand.. How do you do this without impacting HUNDREDS of MILLIONS of the POOR throughout the Globe.

Germany and Spain already effectively demonstrated that doing so shuts them, the poor, down with no power, heat etc cus they just can't flat out pay for it..
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Sep 16, 2013 - 02:40pm PT
Do you live here Base? I have for 32 years, my wife for 37. Yes I've been to many of the villages, sometimes for months on construction projects. My wife worked throughout the state as a geologist. I know what I am talking about- you don't. Your buddy Jimmy Carter was burned in effigy on the tarmac at Fairbanks after he deceitfully had his interior secretary interface with the state geological department, supposedly to exclude the mineral rich areas from federal protection status, then turned right around and designated the best areas. Jimmy didn't even get off the plane as his effigy burned. We have a long simmering feud with the feds and are ground zero for attack by the environmental NGO's.
bobinc

Trad climber
Portland, Or
Sep 16, 2013 - 02:42pm PT
No method will be perfect but there are plenty of ideas out there. The poor will pay one way or the other, Chief.

We regulate electricity prices, water prices, garbage pick up prices. Gasoline taxes are part of the mix, too. When was the last time the federal gas tax changed, Chief? How much is it?

There's plenty that can be done. If we stay in the false-paradise mode of fossil fuel consumption, what do you think will happen?
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Sep 16, 2013 - 02:43pm PT
Rick - where are you? Things are going rapidly and predictably down hill with Chuff.


So does anyone have a line on that blocker program?
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Sep 16, 2013 - 02:45pm PT
I don't see it that way, not from wasillastan-Bruce. You guys are just sore LOSERS.

Anyway, back to work with me. Will check in later.
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Sep 16, 2013 - 02:46pm PT
BOBINC
The poor will pay one way or the other, Chief.


Collateral damage is acceptable?

Apparently you are not one of em nor ever will be. Nice.
mechrist

Gym climber
South of Heaven
Sep 16, 2013 - 02:47pm PT
Bruce, thanks for the grease monkey reminder!

http://www.supertopo.com/climbing/thread.php?topic_id=1108086&tn=140
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Sep 16, 2013 - 02:50pm PT
Figures you'd be in on that one WES. That is the true way to be unbias. Must be some new scientific theory huh?

If they do not agree with us, terminate em cus they are terrorists.

Sounds just like Assad last night.

Nice WES. Nice.
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