Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

Search
Go

Discussion Topic

Return to Forum List
This thread has been locked
Messages 12161 - 12180 of total 20343 in this topic << First  |  < Previous  |  Show All  |  Next >  |  Last >>
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Jan 20, 2014 - 11:34pm PT
If you listen to Fox News, or right-wing radio, or read the denier blogs, you’d have to think climate scientists were complete idiots to miss how fake global warming is. Yet despite this incredibly obvious hoax, no one ever publishes evidence exposing it. Mind you, scientists are a contrary lot. If there were solid evidence that global warming didn’t exist, or that CO2 emissions weren’t the culprit, there would be papers in the journals about it. Lots of them.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2014/01/14/climate_change_another_study_shows_they_don_t_publish_actual_papers.html
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 20, 2014 - 11:57pm PT
Well Mutt, there are independent scientists working on alternative hypothesis's of natural cycles of global warming and cooling where CO2 is not the end all driver and control knob. I think Trenberth has signalled the legitamacy of this effort. However, he needs to get over looking for the missing heat under every rock on the abyssal plain. How does he imagine it got there anyway? Surely it can't all be driven bottom ward by tradewinds in a few small geographically isolated regions. The lack of warming at the sea surface and immediately above in the lowest troposphere seems to preclude it coming from wide regions of the globe since downwelling IR from CO2 only penetrates a few millimeters and where is the data indicating a warming in the near surface temps over the length of the pause- i mean if this was happening there would be no pause. And i'm not talking Cowtan and Way or the highly peculiar reconstructed graphs. So i think two of the many ways of explaining the pause can be thrown out.
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Jan 21, 2014 - 10:37am PT
I told you he was desperate for attention.
TLP

climber
Jan 21, 2014 - 11:30am PT
As for the cherry-picking of data and incorrectly making inferences based upon short-term (10-15 year) trends, I was curious whether The Chief would see the inconsistency between his making a big deal of the air/surface temperature trend of the last 13 years and the fact that similar such trends, well within the long-term range of variation around the overall trend, could be pointed out right in the middle of his putatively dramatic warming in the early 20th century. I know, others have tried to make this same point before, and no, it appears that he did not get the point that this is just not a valid way to be looking at the data that we have. Oh, well. Voltaire had something very apt to say about that.

But back to actual substance, seeing Chiloe's graphs of ocean heat content, I have to say again that the whole subject of how heat transfers between water and air, and how circulation occurs and oscillates within and among the oceans is a really really interesting subject. We know about some notable correlations, which get tighter all the time as the modeling and data collection is improved, but how the oceans and interface function still has a ways to go. There are probably some really good papers on it somewhere, but not my subject so I'm not aware of them.


Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Jan 21, 2014 - 11:39am PT
While walking my dog in the cold snowy forest this morning, there came to me a vision (this often happens) of combining the hasty OHC graphs posted here yesterday. If anyone has a use for these feel free to pass them along.



k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Jan 21, 2014 - 12:20pm PT
The Chief is like an uncle you can't stand who shows up uninvited for dinner one night, and ends up crashing in your guest room for months on end. You can't get rid of him, and all he does is make trouble around the house.


It's no wonder, this is how The Chief views himself:


photo not found
Missing photo ID#325829
Wade Icey

Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
Jan 21, 2014 - 12:27pm PT
this is a tedious thread
Cragar

climber
MSLA - MT
Jan 21, 2014 - 01:00pm PT
what are you getting at Sketch?
Wade Icey

Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
Jan 21, 2014 - 01:00pm PT
Unless you are on course with the "graph" looking like your dwarf dick getting add ons.

Credit: Cheesegraphs

Haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!
Haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!
Credit: cockroach in amber
crunch

Social climber
CO
Jan 21, 2014 - 01:28pm PT
Chiloe's graphs superimposed. Ocean temps were very consistent until l...
Chiloe's graphs superimposed. Ocean temps were very consistent until late 1990s. Since then deeper ocean temps have risen faster.
Credit: crunch

Hey Chiloe, placed your two graphs on top of each other. Not ideal but it's interesting to see how they compare.

Ocean temps, shallow and deeper, appeared to stay very consistent until late 1990s. Since then both have been rising but deeper ocean temps have risen faster.

Which appears to correlate with the lack of warming, over the same period, in the atmosphere.

Logically, the heat added by greenhouse gas effect has to go somewhere. So, since the late 1990s, perhaps this is where some of it's been going?
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Jan 21, 2014 - 01:59pm PT
Wasps are no problem.
I've killed hundreds of wasps, swatting them with a broom as they came up out of my deck. You just have to remain motionless if they are flying around next to you, and you need enough self control to stay still if one lands on you.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Jan 21, 2014 - 02:33pm PT
Hey Chiloe, placed your two graphs on top of each other. Not ideal but it's interesting to see how they compare.

Your version nicely highlights the additive nature of the two indexes, and the steeper rise when you include deeper ocean.

Ocean temps, shallow and deeper, appeared to stay very consistent until late 1990s. Since then both have been rising but deeper ocean temps have risen faster.
Which appears to correlate with the lack of warming, over the same period, in the atmosphere.
Logically, the heat added by greenhouse gas effect has to go somewhere. So, since the late 1990s, perhaps this is where some of it's been going?

Yes, that seems to be what people are finding. Notably this 2013 paper in Geophysical Research Letters, by Balmeseda, Trenberth & Kallen:

Distinctive climate signals in reanalysis of global ocean heat content
The elusive nature of the post-2004 upper ocean warming has exposed uncertainties in the ocean's role in the Earth's energy budget and transient climate sensitivity. Here we present the time evolution of the global ocean heat content for 1958 through 2009 from a new observation-based reanalysis of the ocean. Volcanic eruptions and El Niño events are identified as sharp cooling events punctuating a long-term ocean warming trend, while heating continues during the recent upper-ocean-warming hiatus, but the heat is absorbed in the deeper ocean. In the last decade, about 30% of the warming has occurred below 700 m, contributing significantly to an acceleration of the warming trend. The warming below 700 m remains even when the Argo observing system is withdrawn although the trends are reduced. Sensitivity experiments illustrate that surface wind variability is largely responsible for the changing ocean heat vertical distribution.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Jan 21, 2014 - 02:38pm PT
The ENSO-related wind variability mentioned by Balmeseda et al. is explored from a different angle in a 2013 Nature paper by Kosaka & Xie, filling in other parts of the puzzle.
Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling
Despite the continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in the twenty-first century1, 2, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus in global warming3, 4, 5, 6, but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity. Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations. We present a novel method of uncovering mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing, in addition to radiative forcing, the observed history of sea surface temperature over the central to eastern tropical Pacific in a climate model. Although the surface temperature prescription is limited to only 8.2% of the global surface, our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with correlation coefficient r = 0.97 for 1970–2012 (which includes the current hiatus and a period of accelerated global warming). Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, the winter cooling in northwestern North America and the prolonged drought in the southern USA. Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La-Niña-like decadal cooling. Although similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, the multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase.
raymond phule

climber
Jan 21, 2014 - 04:14pm PT
I am curious how the data in sketch figure where sampled. My guess is that they looked at all the data and only choose that stations that had an old max temperature in an area.
raymond phule

climber
Jan 21, 2014 - 05:04pm PT
Strange

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/station.jsp

Looks like Sydney's record high temperature were achieved the 18 January 2013.

Why wasn't that included in Sketch figure?

O sh#t, I also realized that sketch figure don't even include the record warm 2013. So it is both old and probably based on cheery picking of stations.

The peer"review" at what up with that really seems to work...
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Jan 21, 2014 - 05:24pm PT
I don't normally look at Australia but since it's so much under discussion here ...

The UAH upper-troposphere temperature index (1979 to present) recently started listing separate values for Australia. You can't see daily extremes, or max and minimum, in these monthly averages. Also, they only go back 36 years. But FWIW here is what those data look like. The trend (+.16 C/decade) is slightly steeper than that for the UAH global index (+.14 C/decade).

Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Jan 21, 2014 - 05:30pm PT
And here are yearly averages from the same UAH lower-troposphere series.

blahblah

Gym climber
Boulder
Jan 21, 2014 - 06:07pm PT
Here's a good one from a right-wing humorist based in Aspen (he's a retired lawyer, so has extra credibility to me).

Down in Antarctica, some global-warming types were spending government grants to document the disappearance of sea ice until their ship became icebound in the disappearing sea ice. If we’re lucky, in the new year they’ll visit the Arctic to document the disappearing polar bears.

http://www.aspentimes.com/opinion/9774795-113/council-obama-restaurant-column
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Jan 21, 2014 - 06:41pm PT
from a right-wing humorist
Chris Turney, leader of the 2013 Australasian Antarctic Expedition, became the ad hominem du jour throughout the right-wing blogosphere for a while. Witness the many examples on this thread, not one of them from anyone who knew more than their blog's talking points about the man or the expedition. Sounds like blahblah's right-winger knows nothing but the ad hom yuk-yuks too.

I don't know this guy's work, but here is what the Australian Academy of Science said in awarding Turney their Frederick White Prize.


Professor Chris Turney
School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences
University of New South Wales

Professor Turney is an internationally recognised earth scientist and research leader in both climate and environmental change, from the tropics to the poles. By pioneering new ways of combining climate models with records of past climate change (spanning from hundreds to thousands of years), he has discovered new links between variability mechanisms in the Australian region and global climate change.

Whatever mistakes Turney and the ship's Russian captain made to get stuck in wind-driven ice, they join a very long list of other Arctic and Antarctic vessels that have been iced in as well. Including, quite recently, two of the icebreakers that tried to come to their aid. But there's no right-wing mileage in yukking about them.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Jan 21, 2014 - 06:51pm PT
The AAS award recognizes Turney for his scientific contributions, some of which can be seen here.
Messages 12161 - 12180 of total 20343 in this topic << First  |  < Previous  |  Show All  |  Next >  |  Last >>
Return to Forum List
 
Our Guidebooks
Check 'em out!
SuperTopo Guidebooks


Try a free sample topo!

 
SuperTopo on the Web

Review Categories
Recent Trip Report and Articles
Recent Route Beta
Recent Gear Reviews