Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Sep 2, 2013 - 11:28pm PT
Dumbass, ENSO affects the surface of the ocean, and that's where the heat transfer with the atmosphere takes place.

BINGO MONO.

That is one primary reason why the SCIENCE is NOT Settled. Nor will it ever be.

Your science and climate modeling can not predict the inconsistent fluctuations in the ENSO Cycles. A very critical "FORCING" component in this entire "warming" issue.

One of the primary forcing entities that many of the Skeptical Climate Scientists have been saying for a longass time. Yet your CONSENSUS science has played them down and debunked their science stating what you just posted.

So tell us, if the ENSO becomes more prevailing and if it indeeds sticks around longer than usual, will it not impact both the air and sea surface temps on the cooler side? In fact, it is now playing a major part in the recent Record Snow and Cold in Peru and Bolivia that has resulted in many temperature related deaths. The Gov't of Peru has declared a state of emergency country wide.
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/videos/weather/snow-sparks-emergency-in-peru/vCBT52/

monolith

climber
SF bay area
Sep 2, 2013 - 11:32pm PT
Removing ENSO, Volcanic and Solar from the past reveals the consistent warming trend.

You seem to accept that now, and now whine about predictions. Good boy.
BLUEBLOCR

Social climber
joshua tree
Sep 2, 2013 - 11:38pm PT

I’m happy to play that game. Let’s look at the entire hockey stick – going
back to 1850. It indicates 0.7C warming over the past 163 years, which
extrapolates to a laughable 0.38C warming for the rest of the century.

Doesn't this show you (prove) that the earth is naturally warming, even regardless of mans interaction? Even with the use of weaksauce science from 1800's.
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Sep 2, 2013 - 11:45pm PT
Removing ENSO, Volcanic and Solar from the past reveals the consistent warming trend.

Well, the earth's natural system isn't removing it, is it now.

It is here and very active.

The latest events indicates the ENSO has a stronger forcing mechanism than MAN's input due to the COOLING effects on the two oceans by the ENSO. i.e. No Hurricanes and the 15 year stall in temps that the IPCC now admits has occurred.

DAH!

Thank you!

Appears them JDAM's are beginning to fall outta the sky right smack dab all over your bullshet AGW theory right on que.....

BLUEBLOCR

Social climber
joshua tree
Sep 2, 2013 - 11:48pm PT


calling me demeaning names and a wuss or whatever

Does it ever stop?

Maybe with a simple apology? Then maybe we can get back to serious matters?
Even though I think this is more important than the weather!!

Edit : maybe again could you tell me why co2 is bad for us?
mountainlion

Trad climber
California
Sep 3, 2013 - 03:04am PT
the chief let me get this straight...

you are self sufficient but live on SOCIAL SECURITY???

you bash dams but live in a desert and then post irragation systems supplied by DAMS??? or have it your way "a privately owned water source"--provide records of ownership please...and where it is sourced...

BTW BASE asked you what wealth you have created EVER???

sucking off the govt. TEET wich you so despise...now I'm beginning to understand you hate the TASTE of the TEET because you have suckled for so long...most parents ween their babies after a few years...wildlife kick the polar bear cubs to the curb around 3...

Seems to me you would have figured out a way to provide for yourself and your family by now...but instead you ask us to PAY YOUR WAY...

Post up the x-rays or medical documents if you have them from any combat operations...just saying you were injured in combat isn't enough...and so what if you were...your no better than any of the thousands who risked there lives and the true HEROES who DIED for our country...just buried my cousin last week at Fort Leavenworth JERRY FRANS U.S.M.C.

viewing the pic of your suburban utopia in the desert with everybody being a right wing prick ...are you the ex-military dude Kris Kristofferson portrayed who was homophobic but also homo-curios??? I bet you don't need much of a fire dept. there that is why everybody is a member of the "volunteer" fire dept. that is until the sh#t hits the fan...then us taxpayers will come to the RESCUE but in the chiefs mind like the big lebowskie "they will kidnap/rescue themselves"

The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Sep 3, 2013 - 09:55am PT
sucking off the govt. TEET wich you so despise...

Not one bit.

I am cashing in on being under paid for over 24.6 years for giving 110% of my all, daily, throughout that entire time. Volunteering myself time and time again to do dirty deeds that I would never wish on you nor any other of your croanies here. The consequences of those 24.6 years are numerous wounds and injuries that I now deal with daily. Due to two of those several incurred injuries, I now have to hang up my climbing shoes. Shrapnel and pieces of 40mm rounds play havoc with ones body as they get older. As do the bone fractures etc that come with those injuries.

All the above and so much more for what?

To do my part in protecting the freedoms and liberties of all you. Also, willingly putting my ass on line time and time again here in CONUS and throughout the world, to save others. My story is not a special one as is not those of the many brave Brothers and Sisters I served shoulder to shoulder with. In ALL my commands.


You want to call me a "baby killer" as well, by all means do. Cus I most assuredly participated in operations that probably did so. Several times. That is what I and those I served with were and are still to this day, tasked with doing by you the people of the United States of America. Whether directly or indirectly.


Now if you fuktards can not accept that, call it sucking off the gov't teet and keep your perceptions of my personal life outta this discussion and want to continue with the personal attacks and involve my personal life, than have at it.

Remember one thing, Werner told you all something a couple of years that you need to recognize. I am a Warrior with two plus decades of training and experience. Both have structurally taught me to never quit the fight and persevere regardless the odds.

It is obvious that not one of you tards has ever been in a firefight.


MTNLION:
Post up the x-rays or medical documents if you have them from any combat operations.

I did this all last year (DD214/VA DIS RATING LTR) when challenged by another fellow Alarmist doing just as you are in attempting to discredit me. Where the fk were you


REGARDLESS! Nothing of the above has shet to do with this thread. Yet you and your croanies insist on using the PERSONAL ATTACK TACTIC, regardless the shape or form, in order to discredit/demean any opposition that may be encountered here. That was obvious from the very first posting by KMAN. It is how you ALARMIST role. NOT ONLY HERE BUT THROUGHOUT the globe. What has and is occurring here is a perfect example of how your "SIDE" is presenting this issue to the world. Any opposition to the cause must be quelled by any shape or form, immediately.


This thread was doomed to total bias since it's inception:

"Just wondering, are there any more climate change skeptics out there? Or did they all die off from gagging on all the right-wing spin on the subject?' KMAN
http://www.supertopo.com/climbers-forum/970221/Climate-Change-skeptics-ot








NOW, I am ready for another day of action here on the Taco. The JDAM's are awaiting and ready to be deployed. Be advised that the Warthogs have yet to be mustered and requested. Do not make me do so.

In the mean time....

"It's ON!"





The Latest and Greatest of the FACTS. It cooled (a drop of about -0.12 deg C) since June 2013 per the GISS:
FörtMental

Social climber
Albuquerque
Sep 3, 2013 - 10:24am PT
To do my part in protecting the freedoms and liberties of all you.

Thanks Chief Dee-Luge-Nal!

Thanks for joining the navy and for keeping your festering intellect off American streets. And a warm thank you to the USN! You show true compassion in not launching A-Holes like Chief Tar-Ded from the flight deck. I'm sure that took real restraint.
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Sep 3, 2013 - 11:19am PT
Now they just do not know what direction they need to go.

Sandy's 'freaky' path may be less likely in future

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Man-made global warming may further lessen the likelihood of the freak atmospheric steering currents that last year shoved Superstorm Sandy due west into New Jersey, a new study says.
But don't celebrate a rare beneficial climate change prediction just yet. The study's authors said the once-in-700-years path was only one factor in the massive $50 billion killer storm. They said other variables such as sea level rise and stronger storms will worsen with global warming and outweigh changes in steering currents predicted by the study's computer models.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/sandys-freaky-path-may-less-132328659.html

According to the supposed "experts" here on this thread, it was MMGW that created this event??

Now, the REAL experts say MMGW will deter these type of "freaky 700 year storms" from occurring.

Your science is all over the place doing the CYA gig.







FRONTALOBOTOME:
thank you to the USN! You show true compassion in not launching A-Holes like Chief Tar-Ded from the flight deck. I'm sure that took real restraint.

You are one ignorant NEO MARXIST.

It was the NAVY that CREATED ME and those many out there JUST LIKE ME.

But then you wouldn't even begin to understand that being confined to that concrete cubicle all them decades. Hitting that cranium of yours on them walls day after day after day...
BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
Sep 3, 2013 - 04:21pm PT
TC has made this thread impossible to post to. Abrams posted a link and nobody batted an eyelash.

Check out the website where he gets his info:

http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/

You can go to this "science site" right now and read why we should bomb Syria. It is a total bullshit website and nobody cares. All it is is a TC hate fest.

Gotta get back to work. My computer is finishing a data update.
khanom

Trad climber
Greeley Hill
Sep 3, 2013 - 04:40pm PT
Wow, I see the Leg Humper is in fine form these days.

Yip yip yip yip yip yip yip yip yip yip yip!
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Sep 3, 2013 - 05:15pm PT
TC has made this thread impossible to post to.

Yes, it's unfortunate that Chief can always bring this thread back to focus on himself. There's a lot of potential for sharing real information and questions from different perspectives including Ed's impressively wide grasp, Base's deep-time view, and many others such as those ocean charts that Monolith keeps posting and not one of the deniers seems able to read.

A few pages back I posted some notes about an important new paper by Kosaka and Xie, which quantifies the contribution of ENSO to atmospheric warming and cooling. This paper is too new to make the deadline for the forthcoming IPCC report, which really needs it, but it is getting good discussion on blogs. Judith Curry misreads the core point, but John Nielsen-Gammon has a particularly good post today:

Kosaka and Xie find that the POGA-H run [which includes Pacific sea surface temperatures associated with El Niño and La Niña, in addition to greenhouse forcing] reproduces the hiatus, along with most other interannual variations in global surface temperature (correlation 0.97 since 1970). In addition, it reproduces most of the key observed regional variations in warming, both during the rapid rise of 1971-1997 and the hiatus period of 2002-2012. All of this, to me, is convincing evidence that any explanation for the hiatus must pass through the tropical central and eastern Pacific.

There are two possible explanations.
One is that the natural variability in the central and eastern tropical Pacific (which is known to be quite variable) randomly happened to evolve in such a way that it favored a cooling trend in surface temperatures for the past fifteen or so years, one that was almost strong enough to offset the longer-term global warming trend. The second is that the particular evolution of surface temperature in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, rather than being independent of global warming, is actually being caused by it.

The implication of explanation number one is that the effect of natural variability will soon reverse and global atmospheric warming will resume at its previous pace. The implication of explanation number two is that for an extended but unknown period of time, the tropical Pacific will continue to evolve in a La Niña fashion, maintaining a slow rate of temperature rise for quite some time. Kosaka and Xie argue that explanation number one is more likely, and I agree. Several pieces of evidence point toward explanation number one and away from explanation number two, but none of them are conclusive at this point.


More at
http://blog.chron.com/climateabyss/2013/08/learning-from-the-hiatus/
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Sep 3, 2013 - 05:43pm PT
have added on quite a bit since you retired..

Actually I have subtracted quite a bit. Honestly.


CHILOE:
Judith Curry misreads the core point,

Of course she does. She is not in with the consensus. Thus as your companions here notate time after time, she is an idiot, moron etc.


Amazing how not less than two weeks ago, you and the others that support the theory of MMGW, were all declaring that there has been NO STALL in the rise of the temps. That includes the "Consensus" out there. That of course was prior to the leaking of WR5.

Now, the "Consensus" has instantly come up with a reason for the stall that was not accepted till the leak of the AR5. It appears that now it is safe to say that you are onboard with the reality of the 15 year stall/hiatus. Correct?

How can that be if MONO's charts insist that ALL the STT's are on a steady rise.

Which one of the two is false if the new study you posted above indicates that the ENSO is actually cooling the surface of the Tropical Pacific and now the NOAA indicates that the Northern Atlantic ocean cooling is indeed behind this years lack of any hurricanes.
FörtMental

Social climber
Albuquerque
Sep 3, 2013 - 05:45pm PT
I often open links to actual research papers (even those posted here) and read as much as I can understand, or, at least to the end of the abstract, whichever comes first. I also get the e-mail updates from Nature Climate Change, among others; however, I'm a little tired of beating my head against publishers' pay walls, especially since a lot of this research is taxpayer funded. I've e-mailed Springer Verlag, Nature, AGU requesting access to NSF funded research papers and have received the big, silent middle finger. Meanwhile, peons like me have to satisfy ourselves with abstracts.

Maybe you guys with the journal memberships could either copy/paste text from these papers, or post up screenshots of the pages? It might go a long way towards cleaning up this out-house of a thread. I'll ask Mad69Dog to do as much with the evidence he has that climate science research is rife with corruption and manipulated data....
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Sep 3, 2013 - 05:54pm PT
From CHILOE's paper:

The problem was not just the temporary flat period. The longer the flat period lasted, the farther the observed temperatures deviated from most climate model projections, as tracked by Lucia and others. This raised the question of whether climate models were too sensitive to radiative forcing, either from Tyndall gases or in general.

Then the flat period lasted for more than fifteen years. It became clear that “these things happen” was not a sufficient answer, especially since “these things” happen very rarely in climate models. It became important to understand what causes these things to happen, and why models apparently don’t simulate them very well. Finally, scientists started investigating what’s become known as the global warming “hiatus”.


Interesting. This goes completely against everything each one of you ALRMISTS and supposed experts have been screaming on this thread all up till.... today???

I thought you all said this was bullshet???



So according to this paper that you CHILOE have posted that indicates why the "hiatus", everything that has been posted here from the "Skeptics" regarding the "STALL" is indeed correct and not at all the nice things you all said it was.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Sep 3, 2013 - 05:58pm PT
FM, I try to post key paragraphs in addition to abstracts with many of the articles I cite, for just that reason. The reason for paywalls is simple economics -- like all other kinds of publishers, academic publishers need money to stay in business. They get most of that from library subscriptions, which they could not sell (and hence would go out of business) if they posted the articles for free.

It is usually possible for a researcher to pay some fee upfront to the journal, to make their article public. Of course that money has to come from somewhere too. We *could* include publication fees in each grant proposal, but the tradeoff is they aren't cheap, and can eat substantially into the money available to actually do the research. If you have a large grant and few papers the bite might not be very deep, but otherwise that's not the case. Also, many papers are finally published well after the grant period has ended; many others describe work done on a shoestring, with little or no grant support.

If you write an author and ask politely, he or she will often send you a pdf of the paper.
nature

climber
Boulder, CO
Sep 3, 2013 - 05:59pm PT
I've e-mailed Springer Verlag, Nature,

weird... never got those emails. I wasn't flipping you the bird. Honestly. Good post FM.
FörtMental

Social climber
Albuquerque
Sep 3, 2013 - 05:59pm PT
It's not a paper, Chief Moobs-That-Swing, it's a blog.
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Sep 3, 2013 - 06:00pm PT
^^^^^^^Really?^^^^^^^

Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years
John C. Fyfe,
Nathan P. Gillett
& Francis W. Zwiers

Recent observed global warming is significantly less than that simulated by climate models.

Recent observed global warming is significantly less than that simulated by climate models. This difference might be explained by some combination of errors in external forcing, model response and internal climate variability.
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v3/n9/full/nclimate1972.html?WT.ec_id=NCLIMATE-201309

Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling
Yu Kosaka
& Shang-Ping Xie

Despite the continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in the twenty-first century1, 2, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus in global warming.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature12534.html

Pay for em and then read em. I did, yesterday.


So CHILOE is not going to fess up that the STALL/HIATUS does indeed exist as we the Skeptics have been saying all along.

Nice Larry.
FörtMental

Social climber
Albuquerque
Sep 3, 2013 - 06:14pm PT
The reason for paywalls is simple economics -- like all other kinds of publishers, academic publishers need money to stay in business. They get most of that from library subscriptions, which they could not sell (and hence would go out of business) if they posted the articles for free.

I would have believed that a few years ago, Chiloe, but the science publishing biz is run by genuine kleptocrats. You reviewers need the rally your comrades and dust off the guillotine:

13825 Researchers Taking a Stand.

Internet Ruffles Pricey Scholarly Journals

Academic spring: how an angry maths blog sparked a scientific revolution
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