Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

show sept 2014 , as well as the whole year to date, no where near the hottest month or year on record. Not even close, not even among the top 5 hottest years of the recent past.

At least Chiloe admitted he lied, however cleverly he thought he termed his response.

Its all in who processes the data Ray. Take NCDC , GISS, and yourself for example. They and you are on a mission to find and broadcast manmade warming. With this overriding bias truth is twisted to fit the agenda.

EDIT: in another unequivicol sign of cooling, and exposure of CC industry lies, the great lakes water levels are back near normal and the surface temperatures are way, way down going into winter. Good time to invest in shipyards building ice breakers?

Over the last ten years or so there has been a growing inconsistency between the UAH and Remote Sensing Systems versions of the global average lower tropospheric temperature anomalies. Since I sometimes get the question why there is this discrepancy, I decided it was time to address it.
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As can be seen, in the last 10 years or so the RSS temperatures have been cooling relative to the UAH temperatures (or UAH warming relative to RSS…same thing). The discrepancy is pretty substantial…since 1998, the divergence is over 50% of the long-term temperature trends seen in both datasets.
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Anyway, my UAH cohort and boss John Christy, who does the detailed matching between satellites, is pretty convinced that the RSS data is undergoing spurious cooling because RSS is still using the old NOAA-15 satellite which has a decaying orbit, to which they are then applying a diurnal cycle drift correction based upon a climate model, which does not quite match reality. We have not used NOAA-15 for trend information in years…we use the NASA Aqua AMSU, since that satellite carries extra fuel to maintain a precise orbit.

But, until the discrepancy is resolved to everyone’s satisfaction, those of you who REALLY REALLY need the global temperature record to show as little warming as possible might want to consider jumping ship, and switch from the UAH to RSS dataset.

Neely III et al were testing whether increased Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions have contributed to the observed increase in stratospheric background aerosol. Turns out they didn’t. The increased stratospheric background aerosol is therefore down to recent moderate volcanic eruptions such as Nabro in 2011 and other earlier ones. Definitely a small (and non-negligible) negative forcing.

Most research on anthropogenic tropospheric (Asian) aerosols suggest that (1) their increase was partly counterbalanced by decreasing emissions elsewhere, and that (2) the high Black Carbon fraction led to less surface cooling as it otherwise would have if only sulphate aerosols were involved. So no detectable anthropogenic aerosol forcing in the last decade. Some warming contribution in the 1990’s though (global brightening), after the massive aerosol cooling contribution in the 1960’s and 1970’s (global dimming).

The temperature slow-down is almost entirely due to ENSO, flavoured with a bit of solar and volcanic cooling contribution. The distinct Warm Arctic Cold Continent pattern (WACCy) in NH winter led to an additional detectable temporary cooling contribution in the last 5 years. Whether it’s down to the Arctic sea ice retreat or pure coincidence, we don’t know yet. I am with Cohen et al 2014 who argue for a strong sea ice feedback.

In the coming decades we will start seeing a move from “it’s not happening or is not dangerous” to “if only climate scientists had been more trustworthy”. It will always be someone else’s fault.