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Darnell
Big Wall climber
Chicago
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GDP growth seems to be the only thing that matters to some of you.
We count as desirable growth both the beneficial activity that causes pollution and the costly activity of cleaning up the pollution, for example. And when cutting down trees and selling the lumber boosts GDP, we subtract nothing for the loss of forests.
How do we square Earth's finite resources with the fact that as the economy grows, the amount of natural resources needed to sustain that activity must grow too.
Economists have not grasped a simple fact that to scientists is obvious: th size of the Earth as a whole is fixed. Neither the surface nor the mass of the planet is growing or shrinking. The same is true for energy budgets, the amount absorbed by the Earth is equal to the amount it radiates. The overall size of the system - the amount of water, land, air, minerals and other resources present on the planet we live on - is fixed.
The scale of the global economy is approaching the limits of what our planet can cope with. As the oceans are emptied of fish, forests shrink from logging and levels of pollutants and greenhouse gases in the atmosphere rise, the environmental and social costs of further growth are likely to intensify until we reach a point at which the price we pay for each unit of extra growth becomes greater than the benefits we gain.
Economic growth may already be making us poorer rather than richer., a macro-economy that is structurally required to grow in scale beyond the biophysical limits of the Earth, is an absurdity.
How big can the economy can get before it overwhellms the total system.
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TradIsGood
Chalkless climber
the Gunks end of the country
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Or jstan, the other way to look at it...
All depositary financial institutions MUST be leveraged. They must earn more on what they lend than on what they borrow. But they must have some capital on hand against the possible demand for return of their liabilities (deposits).
Now the minute it became obvious that one was nearly insolvent, if published, it would become instantly insolvent. It is called a "run on the bank".
That is why bank regulators, OCC, Fed, and FDIC, never announce that a bank is not healthy!
For fun, just look up the story of Continental Illinois on FDIC's web site.
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tooth
Mountain climber
Guam
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Nice quote Anders. Maybe it will make you happy to know that every month my colleagues and I get together and try to work around the buracracy of the US and get free dental care to those who need it. It works in our own practices, but the US has a law that says all kids here on island get free dental care. Then they build a public clinic, and don't fund it. We are willing to volunteer our time/supplies - but the governemnt won't allow it because we aren't covered with insurance/liability etc. etc. We told them we will give em a free day a week as soon as they get their act together and allow us in. Months have gone by.
Sorry to vent, I'm just so frustrated with pencil-pushers. Spent all morning with Catholic Social Services bringing in their people for exams/cleanings and work. If the goverment can't get it together I'll use a church.
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TGT
Social climber
So Cal
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If the goverment can't get it together I'll use a church.
Careful now!
BHO wants to outlaw that!
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dougalclimber
climber
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TGT, Thanks very much for the link to Wired Magazine's article on David Li's risk pricing model. Nearly two years ago, when problems with sub-prime CDO market began to emerge, I began trying to educate myself on this whole business. Six or seven books and many, many articles and discussions later, I still hadn't come across a suitable description of some of the specifics roots of the problem. This article is excellent in that sense and I'm copying the link to a variety of friends and colleagues.
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gumbyclimber
climber
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jstan, you're right; economics as an empirical science is indeed dismal. If you haven't been there, you might find a study of praxeology to be both thought-provoking and eye-opening. Human nature never changes.
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Karl Baba
Trad climber
Yosemite, Ca
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I still like the aphorism
"Economics is the business version of Religion"
We're gunna Die!
Peace
Karl
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couchmaster
climber
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Mar 27, 2015 - 12:36pm PT
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What did we decide?
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Fritz
Trad climber
Choss Creek, ID
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Mar 27, 2015 - 03:50pm PT
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Interesting to go back and read all the negative posts about the stock market when it was close to the lows of the last big panic. It bottomed in Feb. 2009 and I actually bought some stock in early March. I must have ignored the advice of my financial betters.
Sooooooo-----Obama & the economy have been harder on me. I couldn't retire until age 65. Strangely, the years of Obama's reign have been the best earning years of my life.
For those of you that don't follow the stock market, here's what the Standard & Poors 500 Index has done since March of 2005 (Follow the upward trending blue line). Yes it will go bust again, but the ride in between the busts has been a happy one for me.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Mar 27, 2015 - 05:01pm PT
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Well, it had nothing to do with Obama and I'm glad to see he's smart enough
not to try and take credit for it. The market is its own beast. If we do
have a major 'correction', and that is far from a certainty, it won't be his
fault, either. IMHO the market is oversold and over-priced - the Shiller P/E
and Tobin Q ratios both indicate that and they have been highly accurate in
the past. Of course, this may be the exception that proves the rule although
some correction would be good and there has been a substantial outflow of
funds from equities in the last week or two which makes me feel better about
staying long. I think the correction will not be much above 5% which isn't
worth getting out over but then I'm only about 50% in equities anyway so I'm
lettin' les bon temps roulez, baby! I did well in bonds last year so I'm
gonna keep my positions there only because it is close to putting that money
into cash and they won't lose much, if any. Let them eat cake!
BTW, I told you 'tards 6 months ago to short the Euro. If you'd followed my
advice you would have made a tidy sum. But, no, you were all more concerned
with explosive diarrhea and the like.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Hey, Moose, you still long Tesla? BwaHaHaHaHa! That's OK, you can make up some of yer
losses by performing table dances at COR. Just don't expect me to tuck a fiver into yer waistband.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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$17, really? Then my hat's off to you, good sir! At this point you've
nothing to lose by holding it although I really don't see it going up within
the next few years, or until they can prove they can make money.
At this point you've earned the last laugh! ;-)
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JEleazarian
Trad climber
Fresno CA
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Now I'm glad I ignored this thread, because reading it with hindsight makes it far more interesting.
Anders' (Mighty Hiker's) Adam Smith quote, above, is one of my favorites, but when it comes to the stock market, my favorite quote about what the market will do comes from J. P. Morgan: "The market will fluctuate."
John
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Studly
Trad climber
WA
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The Stock Market is a Ponzi scheme. To base our country's economy and well being around it is.... insanity.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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The Stock Market is a Ponzi scheme
I'm laughing, all the way to the bank. Sound investing isn't rocket science.*
It just takes self-discipline and a good grip on yer emotions.
*Even though US equities were down yesterday I still made gud money because
I am diversified with international equities and bonds.
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Studly
Trad climber
WA
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I'm laughing, all the way to the bank. Sound investing isn't rocket science.*
It just takes self-discipline and a good grip on yer emotions.
*Even though US equities were down yesterday I still made gud money because
I am diversified with international equities and bonds.
Said the gambler to the whores..
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Bruce Morris
Social climber
Belmont, California
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Stick with the hoes: At least you get what you pay for with them (sometimes but not often enough!) Better odds than with a family investment counselor.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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You're fairly well justified to be suspicious of "family investment counselors".
You're much better off doing your own research which is easily done these
days on the intardnet. And you really don't need to look too deeply if you
confine your research to no-load/low management fee index funds. As I said,
it ain't rocket science. Or you can wallow in bitterness and cynicism and
look forward to retirement in a trailer park in Stockton.
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zBrown
Ice climber
Brujò de la Playa
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My real estate 'investment' attained about a 4% average compounded growth rate over the last 27 years.
In my opinion this is a no risk investment.
Didn't calculate tax savings and expenses nor did I consider the fact that I lived in it.
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Roger Brown
climber
Oceano, California
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We only have 18% or so left in the stock market. Not making any money, but won't lose very much either. Living good on fixed income. We are a little too old to start over and healthy enough to work when the money is right. Timing is everything.
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