Actual worldwide population problem

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Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Feb 11, 2019 - 03:44pm PT
World-wide plunge?

When was the last year to show a drop in global population?

Maybe during WWII?

The Black Plague?

You are confusing population RATE with population NUMBERS.


It is equivalent to your auto speed. You note a huge plunge in speed from 70 mph to 20 mph------and wonder why you are not going backwards!

You are not going backward, and your total trip mileage is still increasing.

HOWEVER, you are no longer outpacing the highway bandits chasing you (the DEATH rate), which is now going faster.
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Feb 11, 2019 - 03:50pm PT
BTW in the US I look for the fertility rate to increase a bit as the Millennials clear out of their parent's basements and start having families.

If you think that is the reason, not just in the US, but worldwide.
healyje

Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
Feb 11, 2019 - 03:53pm PT
Orban will legalize rape before a reasonable immigration policy.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Feb 11, 2019 - 04:13pm PT
You are confusing population RATE with population NUMBERS.

My mistake. Nice correction.

Still, the net increase seems fairly constant, based on this link.

http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/world-population-by-year/
Lorenzo

Trad climber
Portland Oregon
Feb 11, 2019 - 04:14pm PT
You are confusing population RATE with population NUMBERS.


Pretty sure World population went down during Justinian’s plague (541-542) and the Black Death of 1347-1351

The above link shows this for 1200-1400
200-600 was nearly flat for 400 years.
Lorenzo

Trad climber
Portland Oregon
Feb 11, 2019 - 04:18pm PT
^^^ you mean soylent green?
Jon Beck

Trad climber
Oceanside
Feb 11, 2019 - 04:27pm PT
It seems like their should be a consequence for the shrinkage of 1/7th of the school population

Coastal California has been closing schools for decades. Some school construction going on in the inland areas of coastal towns, but even that is stopping as the last of the residential land disappears. 30 year ago Oceanside considered going to a year round schedule because of a lack of school space. The enrollment started dropping before they could implement that plan, and since then schools have closed. People still moving to California (just not so many to the beaches), the trend is for people moving to within 50 miles of the coast, on both the east and wet coasts. They do not expect that to change.

I bet there are a lot of shuttered schools in fly-over country though

Del Mar and Encinitas have sold off prime ocean view property that is no longer needed for schools. Oceanside High School sits on prime coastal ocean view property blocks from the beach. They have talked about closing it in the past, but have since added major improvements so it is not going anywhere soon.
mynameismud

climber
backseat
Feb 11, 2019 - 04:28pm PT
read an article the other day (I should have marked the link) they were predicting population would continue to grow for a few decades then plateau for a while. After that it would shrink for the foreseeable future.
Minerals

Social climber
The Deli
Feb 11, 2019 - 04:43pm PT

https://ourworldindata.org/future-population-growth

https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth#data-sources-and-data-quality

The sliders in the lower left on some of the graphics are pretty cool.
Lorenzo

Trad climber
Portland Oregon
Feb 11, 2019 - 04:57pm PT
What we need is a good pandemic. Just doing something really stupid like feeding tainted meat to beef cattle should do it.

Oh, wait...
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Feb 11, 2019 - 05:07pm PT
JB, the Burchey judge gave you 9/10.
originalpmac

Mountain climber
Timbers of Fennario
Feb 11, 2019 - 08:23pm PT
I had a pair of Patagonia boxers last me fifteen years. Just saying.
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Feb 11, 2019 - 08:49pm PT
A pandemic might have an effect
The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918, the deadliest in history, infected an estimated 500 million people worldwide—about one-third of the planet's population—and killed an estimated 20 million to 50 million victims, including some 675,000 Americans.

That's about 1/30th of the world's population. Probably replaced in a generation or two.

Maybe Ebola would be more efficient?

We gotta measles one going.
healyje

Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
Feb 12, 2019 - 02:09am PT
Keep in mind the Spanish flu spread to the extent it did without the aid or benefit of a modern, worldwide transportation system.
Yury

Mountain climber
T.O.
Feb 12, 2019 - 05:08am PT
AP:
Canada realized decades ago that we need more people to keep the economy running so we have become very multicultural through immigration. People from all over but mostly Asian. I think it has been good for us....
So far it has been good (according to progressives like Trudeaus).
However nobody eliminated a pattern of multi-cultural societies (Roman, Russian, British, Austro-Hungarian etc.) being less stable than mono-ethnical (Egypt, China, Japan).
The more non-Christian immigrants we have in Canada - the faster our society will collapse.
There is no way around this.
healyje

Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
Feb 12, 2019 - 04:46pm PT
The more non-Christian immigrants we have in Canada - the faster our society will collapse.

Seriously? Pretty xenophobic if not racist...
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Feb 12, 2019 - 05:01pm PT
Seriously? Pretty xenophobic if not racist...

Sometimes the truth hurts.
Yury

Mountain climber
T.O.
Feb 12, 2019 - 06:30pm PT
healyje:
Seriously? Pretty xenophobic if not racist...
healyje, you must be progressive.
They are so enthusiastic to talk about bright coming future, but talking about history (that may question their grand schemes) is a taboo for them.
Fossil climber

Trad climber
Atlin, B. C.
Feb 13, 2019 - 02:31pm PT
There has been a computer study on no less subject than the future of the earth, first done in 1972 and updated twice since. It was commissioned by the Club of Rome. The latest edition is called "Limits to Growth, the Thirty Year Update". It has proved remarkably accurate over the years. A good site on Google is "A Synopsis: Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update".

The book itself is not a quick read, but the charts and graphs are telling. And they make the folks who predict about 12 years before major economic and environmental disasters sound very percipient indeed.

We have done business as usual too long. I'm glad I'm 87 and won't see much of it, but I'm deeply sorry for my kids and everybody else who is much younger.
Oplopanax

Mountain climber
The Deep Woods
Feb 13, 2019 - 03:55pm PT
https://www.economist.com/international/2019/02/02/thanks-to-education-global-fertility-could-fall-faster-than-expected
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